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DOE OSTI2021

Uniformly Ordered Binary Decision Algorithm for Benchmark Experiment Correlations in Whisper Validation

When performing a validation exercise for determining the upper subcritical limit of a nuclear criticality safety application, an analyst should select and perform a statistical analysis on a population of benchmark experiments that are neutronically similar to the application. The size of this population should be sufficiently large such that the statistical analysis has a high degree of confidence that the bias plus bias uncertainty (calculational margin) has been accurately quantified. A complication arises because many benchmark experiments share common components, leading to correlations in their measured effective multiplication factors. Correlations between benchmark experiments within the population reduces its predictive power. This motivates the need for methods that consider benchmark experiment correlations and ensure adequate statistical significance of results. The Whisper code is a statistical analysis pack- age that incorporates nuclear data sensitivity coefficients from MCNP to assess benchmark experiment similarity and then performs an extreme-value analysis to estimate the bias plus bias uncertainty. The original methodology in Whisper does not consider the effect of benchmark experiment correlations when making this estimation, and this summary proposes the uniformly ordered binary decision algorithm to address this shortcoming. The original methodology in Whisper computes similarity coefficients ck for an application compared to all benchmark experiments in its library and develops weighting factors for a selected population proportional to the ck values. The methodology can be interpreted as statistically emulating a validation exercise for a particular application where the weighting factors may be viewed as the likelihood that an analyst would include a particular benchmark experiment within the population. The effective sample size of the population is the expected or mean number of benchmark experiments in the population. The uniformly ordered binary decision algorithm identifies clusters of correlated benchmark experiments within the population and then computes adjusted weighting factors based on the magnitude of the correlation coefficients within the cluster to compute a reduced effective sample size accounting for the lower information content because of correlations. Benchmark experiments within the cluster are ordered randomly with equal probability and probabilistic decisions are made as to whether a benchmark. experiment within the cluster should treated as redundant with a previous one; if two redundant benchmark experiments are included, then the conservative worst case bias plus bias uncertainty is used and the pair is counted as a single benchmark experiment in the population. Results are provided for HEU solutions in a research version of the Whisper software using benchmark experiment correlations provided by DICE, the Database for the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP). These show that there can be a significant increase in the bias plus bias uncertainty because the effective sample size is reduced, and therefore the algorithm, needing to meet sample size requirements, expands the benchmark experiment population by accepting less similar benchmark experiments that would have otherwise not been included.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Partnership Center for High-Fidelity Boundary Plasma Simulation (Final Report)

Within the Partnership Center for High-Fidelity Boundary Plasma Simulation (HBPS), work at UT-Austin was aimed at improved verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) for edge plasma simulations and on performing gyrokinetics simulations of pedestal instabilities and turbulence in order to expand foundational understanding of pedestal transport. Regarding VVUQ, the accomplishments can be summarized as follows. First, it was shown that the Moment Preserving Constrained Resampling technique, when applied periodically in particle-in-cell simulations in the XGC code, can dramatically improve the accuracy of the simulation at essentially equivalent computational cost. Second, a technique for estimating model correlations, which are required to solve the model selection and sample allocation problem in multifidelity UQ techniques, without sampling the highest fidelity, most computationally expensive model, was developed and demonstrated. Third, previously developed methods for estimating statistical and discretization errors were applied to numerical methods relevant to edge plasma simulations, namely in particle-in-cell-based approaches, and shown to work. Finally, benchmark studies for comparing gyrokinetic codes were developed and performed, leading to reasonable agreement between four commonly used codes. Regarding physics studies, gyrokinetic simulations to investigate microtearing modes in the DIII-D pedestal were performed using the GENE code.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring the Nature of Neutrinos with the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE)

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is a next-generation experimental program designed to study the behaviour of neutrino oscillation. DUNE will utilize a neutrino beam originating at Fermilab, near Chicago, and will leverage a detector at Fermilab (Near Detector) and a detector 1300 km away in South Dakota (Far Detector), south of Saskatchewan. In the first phase of DUNE, its Far Detector will comprise of two 10,000 ton (fiducial) liquid argon (LAr) time-projection chamber (TPC) modules – powerful tracking calorimeter detectors – placed nearly a mile underground. With this large, sensitive, underground detector, DUNE aims to collect a high statistics and pure sample of neutrinos at the Far Detector. This setup also offers the potential to study non-beam physical processes via e.g. neutrinos produced in the atmosphere, supernova neutrino bursts, and/or solar neutrinos, etc. A second phase will aim to add more detector mass and expand the program. The Near Detector will consist of a LAr TPC module as well: critical to constraining systematic uncertainties in the oscillation analysis. However, this LAr TPC will have a novel design using a pixel-based readout instead of the traditional wire-based readout. This and the segmentation of the LAr TPC into multiple units are crucial in mitigating the high multiplicity of neutrino interactions expected in any readout window given its proximity to the beam. The Near Detector will feature additional components and capability beyond the LAr TPC, allowing one to deeply characterize the neutrino flux. Due to the complexity of this experimental program, several smaller-scale prototype detectors have been operating to test, validate, and improve both the technical designs and software for processing and analyzing events. By operating in charged particle test beams or neutrino beams, several of the prototypes are also capable of producing valuable results. Canadian institutions are involved in the realization of the DUNE through efforts with both the Near and Far Detectors and prototypes. DUNE is anticipated to begin operating near the end of this decade/the beginning of the next. This talk will focus on the overall DUNE program, for example its ultimate plans, status, and the efforts with prototypes.

Howard, Bruce [York U., Canada; Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ocean surface radiation measurement best practices

Ocean surface radiation measurement best practices have been developed as a first step to support the interoperability of radiation measurements across multiple ocean platforms and between land and ocean networks. This document describes the consensus by a working group of radiation measurement experts from land, ocean, and aircraft communities. The scope was limited to broadband shortwave (solar) and longwave (terrestrial infrared) surface irradiance measurements for quantification of the surface radiation budget. Best practices for spectral measurements for biological purposes like photosynthetically active radiation and ocean color are only mentioned briefly to motivate future interactions between the physical surface flux and biological radiation measurement communities. Topics discussed in these best practices include instrument selection, handling of sensors and installation, data quality monitoring, data processing, and calibration. It is recognized that platform and resource limitations may prohibit incorporating all best practices into all measurements and that spatial coverage is also an important motivator for expanding current networks. Thus, one of the key recommendations is to perform interoperability experiments that can help quantify the uncertainty of different practices and lay the groundwork for a multi-tiered global network with a mix of high-accuracy reference stations and lower-cost platforms and practices that can fill in spatial gaps.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Verification of the Serpent-Griffin Workflow using the SNAP 8 Experimental Reactor

The Systems for Nuclear Auxiliary Power (SNAP) program accumulated extensive experimental measurements over a span of 15 years. This work builds upon previous studies which validated Serpent against experimental data for various criticality configurations of the SNAP 8 Experimental Reactor (S8ER). A 2-stage sequence is applied here with Serpent used for the generation of few-group cross sections and Griffin as the transport eigenvalue solver. Sensitivity studies are performed to qualify the effect and uncertainty of various parameters, comparing against reference models for the S8ER. The results from this work will then be expanded to create a generalized methodology for the Serpent-Griffin 2-stage approach for microreactor applications.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Advanced Graphite Creep Uncertainty Analysis

Radiation damage estimation is an important component of the post irradiation analysis of the Advanced Graphite Creep (AGC) experiment. It depends primarily on the fast fluence, which is determined using well established methods of spectral adjustment. These are based on best estimates from models such as Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP), input cross-sections, and measured activities from flux wires in the experiment. Each of these parameters can propagate uncertainties which will affect the uncertainty in the calculated dose levels for AGC, or any experiment irradiated within a reactor. While the methods of propagating uncertainty are well-established, the final uncertainty estimates they provide are only as good as the estimates of uncertainty in the inputs on which they are based. The purpose of this work is to outline some deficiencies in the ways these input uncertainties are presently estimated, and to outline a methodology by which they can be improved. The fast fluence and radiation damage received by graphite specimens irradiated in the Advanced Graphite Creep (AGC) experiments is presently estimated using spectral adjustment methods that are based on both flux wire activity measurements, and MCNP model predictions. This work describes an ongoing effort to quantify and propagate uncertainties in inputs to the spectral adjustment process, and thereby quantify the resultant error in radiation damage (dpa) estimates. The effort is multi-faceted, and we consider the impacts of both the set of flux wires selected, and the counting process. An expanded set of flux wires is identified that provides a more comprehensive data set on the fast spectrum. To address the counting process itself, a series of round-robin measurements in several reactor metrology laboratories across the Department of Energy (DOE) complex and nuclear industry are being undertaken to refine the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) standards for flux wire measurements. To address the contribution of uncertainty in the MCNP model predictions, an uncertainty quantification (UQ) tool has been developed that statistically samples the model input parameters, runs a series of cases, and assimilates the results to provide an overall uncertainty. The impact of the MCNP UQ tool results is demonstrated by re-analyzing previous AGC flux wire and irradiation data. While the expanded flux wire set obviously cannot be added to these experiments retroactively, plans for future graphite irradiations are outlined.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Expansion of the Direct Feed High-Level Waste Glass Composition in the High Al Range

Baseline glass compositions have been developed and demonstrated for successful immobilization of Hanford high-level waste (HLW) prepared through a pretreatment process. Recent enhanced waste glass formulations have shown promise to increase the waste loading of pretreated sludge compositions from a broader range of HLW feeds. This project proposes to increase the loading of minimally pretreated Hanford HLW in glass by expanding the existing database and glass property-composition models. Estimated direct-feed high level waste (DFHLW) compositions were generated by the Hanford Tank Operations Contractor and used by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to determine target glass compositions. Gaps in existing data were identified including one high-priority gap in the high Al compositional region. This report summarizes the data collected during the characterization of the DFHLW High Al Glass Matrix. These glasses were intentionally designed with high aluminum concentrations (15 to 30 wt%) and a high likelihood of nepheline formation, which is known to negatively affect glass durability. Some glasses were expected to either fail or approach property constraints to fill data gaps in poorly understood regions of the compositional space due to lack of data. Out of the 50 glasses tested, 14 glasses formed nepheline, while the model predicted nepheline formation in 20 glasses. All quenched glasses met the product consistency test durability constraint; however, 8 glasses failed this constraint after undergoing the canister centerline cooling treatment. Additionally, 17 glasses did not meet the viscosity constraints, 4 failed the EC constraints, and 2 exceeded the allowable T2% for spinel crystal formation. All glasses satisfied the SO 3 solubility limit. The resulting dataset provides valuable information to improve model accuracy and reduce prediction uncertainty. These insights will ultimately support the development of more robust glass formulation strategies, enabling higher waste loadings, reducing operational risks, and expanding the processing envelope.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2026

Assessing Photovoltaic Capacity Factor Variability Using Long-Term Satellite Derived Solar Resource Data Under Brazilian Climate

Accurate estimation of photovoltaic (PV) energy yield and its variability is essential for reducing financial risk and supporting reliable system planning for rapidly expanding PV markets. In Brazil, high solar adoption and increasing levels of distributed energy resources are beginning to introduce operational challenges such as curtailment and evolving grid requirements. Understanding how natural variability in solar resource propagates into PV system performance is therefore increasingly important for both project design and grid integration. Modern PV yield assessments commonly rely on multi-year meteorological datasets and probabilistic exceedance metrics (e.g., P50/P90) to quantify energy yield uncertainty for project financing. However, the implications of long-term solar resource variability for PV system design choices and high-adoption grid conditions remain less well characterized for rapidly expanding markets such as Brazil. In particular, understanding how weather-driven variability propagates into PV production distributions and capacity factor expectations is important for evaluating curtailment exposure, deployment strategies, and storage requirements in regions experiencing rapid growth of distributed and utility-scale PV. Seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric conditions can produce substantial fluctuations in monthly PV energy production, which propagate into uncertainty in annual energy yield and capacity factor expectations. Characterizing this variability using long-term meteorological datasets allows probabilistic estimation of PV system performance and provides improved insight into the range of expected PV energy outcomes. This study explores the use of long-term satellite-derived meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to evaluate the variability of photovoltaic system performance across multiple locations in Brazil. Using a 27-year dataset (1998-2024), PV system simulations are performed to characterize the distribution of annual and seasonal capacity factors and energy yield outcomes, while propagating key sources of meteorological variability and model uncertainty through the PV modeling chain. The analysis also investigates the sensitivity of PV performance outcomes to key system design assumptions within the PV modeling chain, including tracking configuration and system sizing parameters. The resulting probabilistic performance characterization provides insight into how weather-driven variability influences PV production expectations and capacity factor distributions. These results provide a foundation for evaluating how weather-driven variability interacts with high PV adoption and potential storage or curtailment mitigation strategies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian Analysis of TRISO Fuel: Quantifying Model Inadequacy, Incorporating Lower-Length-Scale Effects, and Developing Parallel Active Learning Capabilities

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program aims to develop predictive capabilities by applying computational methods to the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel-cycle systems. This program has been providing engineering-scale support for the continued development of BISON, a high-fidelity, high-resolution fuel performance tool. Fuel behavior in nuclear reactors is governed by a complex network of mechanisms that interact with various other physics aspects in the reactor system. Any model developed to represent fuel behavior will likely be idealized, resulting in uncertainties when comparing their predictions against the observed data. In Fiscal Year (FY)-23, we initiated the Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) work by using Bayesian methods to establish a level of model trustworthiness and further improve it, with a particular emphasis on TRI-Structural isOtropic (TRISO) nuclear fuel. This year, we further expanded on that UQ work by investigating an approach to quantifying model inadequacy and accounting for lower-length scale (LLS) effects in TRISO silver (Ag) release modeling. Furthermore, we are implementing parallel active learning capabilities to reduce the computational cost (i.e., required computational resources and elapsed time) of performing UQ. Specifically, we utilized The Kennedy O’Hagan framework for Bayesian uncertainty quantification (KOH) to account for model inadequacy in TRISO Ag release predictions made by BISON. The KOH framework represents an improvement over the standard Bayesian framework used in FY-23. Explicitly accounting for model inadequacy in the Bayesian framework helps establish the level of experimental noise uncertainty in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) data. We compared the inverse UQ results obtained from both the standard Bayesian and KOH frameworks in light of the AGR-2/3/4 data, and also compared the predictive UQ results obtained from these two frameworks in light of the AGR-1 data. Next, we investigated the impact of considering LLS effects in the Ag release simulations. We developed an expanded database of LLS simulated effective diffusivities for Ag, covering a wide range of microstructures and temperatures. Using this database, we developed a framework for incorporating LLS effects into the engineering-scale Ag release UQ. We developed both parametric and non-parametric approaches for bridging the length scales. We then investigated the inverse UQ results in light of the AGR-2/3/4 data and the predictive UQ results in light of the AGR-1 data, and compared the LLS-informed approach and the Arrhenius equation, which does not include microstructure information. Finally, we discussed implementing parallel active learning capabilities in the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE)/BISON to reduce the computational cost (i.e., computational resources and elapsed time) of Bayesian UQ. For verification purposes, we first tested these new capabil ities on a species interaction problem. We then demonstrated them on the TRISO Ag release application, showing that parallel active learning capabilities can enhance the accuracy of UQ while also substantially reducing the computational cost in comparison to the reference methods developed in FY-23.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Improving nuclear data evaluations with predictive reaction theory and indirect measurements

Nuclear reaction data required for astrophysics and applications is incomplete, as not all nuclear reactions can be measured or reliably predicted. Neutron-induced reactions involving unstable targets are particularly challenging, but often critical for simulations. In response to this need, indirect approaches, such as the surrogate reaction method, have been developed. Nuclear theory is key to extract reliable cross sections from such indirect measurements. We describe ongoing efforts to expand the theoretical capabilities that enable surrogate reaction measurements. We focus on microscopic predictions for charged-particle inelastic scattering, uncertainty-quantified optical nucleon-nucleus models, and neural-network enhanced parameter inference.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Design for Additive Manufacturing: Exploring Remelt Strategies to Tailor Density and Microstructure

The potential advantages of AM (e.g. weight reduction, novel geometries) are well understood within a systems context. However, adoption of AM at the system level has been slow due to the relative uncertainty in the final material properties, which leaves capabilities and/or performance gains unrealized. Utilizing remelt strategies it may be possible to expand the available process window to provide densities and microstructures beyond what is capable with standard scan strategies. This work explored remelting strategies for 316L stainless steel to tailor grain size and increase density. Twelve scan strategies were explored experimentally and computationally to understand the limitations of remelt strategies and the robustness of the current simulation package. Results show tailoring of grain size, density, and texture is achievable through remelting and several key lessons learned were made to improve the texture evaluation through simulation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Decision-Relevant Factor-Fixing Framework: Application to Uncertainty Analysis of a High-Dimensional Water Quality Model

Factor Fixing (FF) is a common method for reducing the number of model parameters to lower computational cost. FF typically starts with distinguishing the insensitive parameters from the sensitive and pursues uncertainty quantification (UQ) on the resulting reduced-order model, fixing each insensitive parameter at a fixed value. There is a need, however, to expand such a common approach to consider the effects of decision choices in the FF-UQ procedure on metrics of interest. Therefore, to guide the use of FF and increase confidence in the resulting dimension-reduced model, we propose a new adaptive framework consisting of four principles: (a) re-parameterize the model first to reduce obvious non-identifiable parameter combinations, (b) focus on decision relevance especially with respect to errors in quantities of interest (QoI), (c) conduct adaptive evaluation and robustness assessment of errors in the QoI across FF choices as sample size increases, and (d) reconsider whether fixing is warranted. The framework is demonstrated on a spatially-distributed water quality model. The error in estimates of QoI caused by FF can be estimated using a Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) surrogate model. Built with 70 model runs, the surrogate is computationally inexpensive to evaluate and can provide global sensitivity indices for free. For the selected catchment, just two factors may provide an acceptably accurate estimate of model uncertainty in the average annual load of Total Suspended Solids (TSS), suggesting that reducing the uncertainty in these two parameters is a priority for future work before undertaking further formal uncertainty quantification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Reaction Mechanism Generator v3.0: Advances in Automatic Mechanism Generation

In chemical kinetics research, kinetic models containing hundreds of species and tens of thousands of elementary reactions are commonly used to understand and predict the behavior of reactive chemical systems. Reaction Mechanism Generator (RMG) is a software suite developed to automatically generate such models by incorporating and extrapolating from a database of known thermochemical and kinetic parameters. Here, we present the recent version 3 release of RMG and highlight improvements since the previously published description of RMG v1.0. Most notably, RMG can now generate heterogeneous catalysis models in addition to the previously available gas- and liquid-phase capabilities. For model analysis, new methods for local and global uncertainty analysis have been implemented to supplement first-order sensitivity analysis. The RMG database of thermochemical and kinetic parameters has been significantly expanded to cover more types of chemistry. The present release includes parallelization for faster model generation and a new molecule isomorphism approach to improve computational performance. RMG has also been updated to use Python 3, ensuring compatibility with the latest cheminformatics and machine learning packages. Overall, RMG v3.0 includes many changes which improve the accuracy of the generated chemical mechanisms and allow for exploration of a wider range of chemical systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analytic marginalization of N(z) uncertainties in tomographic galaxy surveys

In this paper, we present a new method to marginalize over uncertainties in redshift distributions, N(z), within tomographic cosmological analyses applicable to current and upcoming photometric galaxy surveys. We allow for arbitrary deviations from the best-guess N(z) governed by a general covariance matrix describing the uncertainty in our knowledge of redshift distributions. In principle, this is marginalization over hundreds or thousands of new parameters describing potential deviations as a function of redshift and tomographic bin. However, by linearly expanding the theory predictions around a fiducial model, this marginalization can be performed analytically, resulting in a modified data covariance matrix that effectively downweights the modes of the data vector that are more sensitive to redshift distribution variations. We showcase this method by applying it to the galaxy clustering measurements from the Hyper Suprime-Cam first data release. We illustrate how to marginalize over sample variance of the calibration sample and a large general systematic uncertainty in photometric estimation methods, and explore the impact of priors imposing smoothness in the redshift distributions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Estimating building occupancy: a machine learning system for day, night, and episodic events

Building occupancy research increasingly emphasizes understanding the social and physical dynamics of how people occupy space. Opportunities in the open source domain including social media, Volunteered Geographic Information, crowdsourcing, and sensor data have proliferated, resulting in the exploration of building occupancy dynamics at varying spatiotemporal scales. At Oak Ridge National Laboratory, research into building occupancies through the development of a global learning framework that accommodates exploitation of open source authoritative sources, including governmental census and surveys, journal articles, real estate databases, and more, to report national and subnational building occupancies across the world continues through the Population Density Tables (PDT) project. This probabilistic learning system accommodates expert knowledge, experience, and open-source data to capture local, socioeconomic, and cultural information about human activity. It does so through a systematic process of data harmonization techniques in the development of observation models for over 50 building types to dynamically update baseline estimates and report probabilistic diurnal and episodic building occupancy estimates. This discussion will explore how PDT is implemented at scale and expanded based on the development of observation model classes and will explain how to interpret and spatially apply the reported probability occupancy estimates and uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning surrogate for charged particle beam dynamics with space charge based on a recurrent neural network with aleatoric uncertainty

In this work, we develop a machine learning (ML) model with aleatoric uncertainty for the low energy beam transport (LEBT) region of the LANSCE linear accelerator in which we model the transport of a space-charge-dominated 750 keV proton beam through a lattice of 22 quadrupole magnets. Our ML model is developed based on data generated by a Kapchinsky–Vladimirsky (KV) envelope model of beam transport. We show that a recurrent neural network can be used as a dynamical surrogate model for fast prediction of the LEBT beam envelope. Furthermore, we endow the model with the prediction of aleatoric uncertainty and compare three different approaches. We demonstrate that the ML-based uncertainty quantification models are well calibrated and produce good estimates of the regions where the model is less certain about its predictions. This ML framework is a necessary step in the development of a real-time virtual diagnostic tool with uncertainty quantification that can be integrated into more complex downstream tasks (e.g., adaptive control or learning flexible control policies via reinforcement learning) for improved efficiency in beam operations. In future work, we plan to expand on this preliminary study by considering more realistic envelope models that include longitudinal momentum spread and dispersive effects in bending magnets, as well as particle tracking codes with 3D space charge (such as and ). Published by the American Physical Society 2024

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Reactor Supply Chain Assessment (GAIN Report)

Several net-zero scenario evaluations predict a rapid ramp up of nuclear energy in the coming decades. If this materializes, it will most likely strain the supply chains associated with the potential advanced reactor concepts awaiting deployment. To help assess the current and potential capacities of the various advanced reactor supply chains, the Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear (GAIN) conducted a survey of companies able to produce components for advanced reactors in the near future (namely for sodium, gas-cooled, and molten salt reactors). Using an aggressive nuclear deployment scenario, the objective was to assess the ability of the various supply chains to meet the considerable demand projections for certain key components (vessels, heat exchangers, pumps, graphite, and sensors) and identify potential challenges. While individual companies were unable to meet the most optimistic nuclear deployment rate projections, it was found that on aggregate, a United States-based supply chain projected that expansion could be ramped up to meet a larger future demand of these components. However, meeting projected demand for several more complex items (namely gas or salt heat exchangers) was found to be more challenging. Deploying new reactors at scale necessitates the production of more and more supply chain components, requiring a ramp up in production. Supply chain companies were surveyed, and respondents appeared less able to meet short term demand (next year) versus longer-term demand projections (5 and 10 years). This reflects the need to obtain orders with adequate lead times (can range from 3 to 30 months). Future demand will need to be met by expanding existing capacity. These expansions will require suppliers to raise capital or secure other types of support (federal loans or grants) to invest in facilities, equipment, and workforce. Individual suppliers indicated financial investments could be in the range of $\$ $100 million to $\$ $1 billion for their own facilities (depending on the type of facility). The biggest risk, according to respondents, related to general uncertainties surrounding the future nuclear industry and whether the potential demand projections will materialize into real demand that is actionable from a business perspective. Businesses do not seem willing to take investments risks without clear orders. If businesses are not able to invest to expand the supply, it will either delay the deployment of advanced nuclear technology, or the supply chain will be met by suppliers outside of the United States. This report only focuses on the domestic supply chain’s ability to meet the various projections stipulated here for the specific assessed components (vessels, heat exchangers, pumps, graphite, and sensors). The report does not cover all reactor designs or all components that may ultimately be needed for any one reactor design. It also does not address whether any specific aspect of the supply chain will be cost competitive in the global market, nor how potential state-backed entities could affect the expansion of a United States-based supply chain. The largest challenges in ramping up capacity among respondents appear to be workforce related. This includes workforce availability, experience, training, and turnover. In addition to facility investment, suppliers will also need to invest heavily in long-term workforce training to meet production goals. This issue is not nuclear-specific, and the expansion of any supply chain will likely face similar challenges. While suppliers evaluated expected normal business demand from other markets outside of nuclear, it is possible that other market segments could expand more than predicted and compete for the same suppliers. One potential market that may compete for the same supplier resources is the United States military, as many of these suppliers support both the commercial nuclear sector as well as the Navy with reactors and components. In summary, suppliers in the United States believe that there is a way to increase production in order to begin meeting the demand which will exist for advanced reactors—as long as appropriate investments can be made in the supply chain in an appropriate timeframe. Based on the capacity projections and lead times, investment will be needed to meet the 5-year and 10-year production targets. Therefore, if significant nuclear deployment is to occur in the 2030s, investment and ramp up of the advanced nuclear supply chain will need to begin in the near future for the United States to successfully deploy these advanced reactors with domestic supply chains.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A demonstration of improved constraints on primordial gravitational waves with delensing

We present a constraint on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, $r$, derived from measurements of cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization $B$-modes with "delensing,'' whereby the uncertainty on $r$ contributed by the sample variance of the gravitational lensing $B$-modes is reduced by cross-correlating against a lensing $B$-mode template. This template is constructed by combining an estimate of the polarized CMB with a tracer of the projected large-scale structure. The large-scale-structure tracer used is a map of the cosmic infrared background derived from Planck satellite data, while the polarized CMB map comes from a combination of South Pole Telescope, BICEP/Keck, and Planck data. We expand the BICEP/Keck likelihood analysis framework to accept a lensing template and apply it to the BICEP/Keck data set collected through 2014 using the same parametric foreground modelling as in the previous analysis. From simulations, we find that the uncertainty on $r$ is reduced by $\sim10\%$, from $\sigma(r)$= 0.024 to 0.022, which can be compared with a $\sim26\%$ reduction obtained when using a perfect lensing template. Applying the technique to the real data, the constraint on $r$ is improved from $r_{0.05} < 0.090$ to $r_{0.05} < 0.082$ (95% C.L.). Furthermore, this is the first demonstration of improvement in an $r$ constraint through delensing.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗