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NASA NTRS2002

Element-Element Correlations Among Martian Meteorite Bulk Compositions: Peculiarities Explained(?) by Mixing, with Implications for the Composition of Mars

Most estimates of the chemical corn position of Mars' mantle and core derive from elementelement correlations bulk analyses of Martian meteorites [I-31. To use the correlations in this manner assumes implicitly that they reflect mineraVmelt fractionations (e.g., partial melting, fractional crystallization, accumulation) among a cogenetic suite of igneous rocks. However, similar correlations can zppear from mixing of chemical components, and need not imply that the components were cogenetic nor that they had an igneous origin. Several aspects of the elemental and isotopic chem istries of the Martian meteorites can be explained by mixing of geochemical components (mantle or crustal), e.g. [5,6]. Thus, it is worth asking whether mixing rektions might be seen in bulk chemical data, and (if so) whether the mixing components can be used to infer average planet or mantle compositions.

Treiman, A. H.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Explaining the Mid-Latitude Ice Deposits with a General Circulation Model

Though plausible explanations for the high latitude subsurface hydrogen features on Mars have been put forth, there still lacks a consensus on the nature of the low-latitude hydrogen features found in Arabia Terra and Daedalia Planum. While equivalent water mass fractions in these regions are low enough to potentially be explained by the presence of hydrated minerals, it still remains possible that such features are the remnants of ice deposits left from a previous period of high obliquity and which is now thermally unstable and subliming. In order to explore the thermal stability of putative ice deposits at low latitudes, we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Mars GCM with a newly integrated subsurface scheme to trace the deposition and sublimation rates of water ice, adsorbate and vapor across the planet at varying obliquities. In addition, these results help resolve the question of the dominant means of ice emplacement in the near surface, whether such ice is the result of buried surface deposits, or in situ emplaced ice due to vapor diffusion.

Mischna, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Explaining Warm Coronal Loops

One of the great mysteries of coronal physics that has come to light in the last few years is the discovery that warn (- 1 INK) coronal loops are much denser than expected for quasi-static equilibrium. Both the excess densities and relatively long lifetimes of the loops can be explained with bundles of unresolved strands that are heated impulsively to very high temperatures. Since neighboring strands are at different stages of cooling, the composite loop bundle is multi-thermal, with the distribution of temperatures depending on the details of the "nanoflare storm." Emission hotter than 2 MK is predicted, but it is not clear that such emission is always observed. We consider two possible explanations for the existence of over-dense warm loops without corresponding hot emission: (1) loops are bundles of nanoflare heated strands, but a significant fraction of the nanoflare energy takes the form of a nonthermal electron beam rather then direct plasma heating; (2) loops are bundles of strands that undergo thermal nonequilibrium that results when steady heating is sufficiently concentrated near the footpoints. We present numerical hydro simulations of both of these possibilities and explore the observational consequences, including the production of hard X-ray emission and absorption by cool material in the corona.

Klimchuk, James A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

AIRS Products Confirm and Explain Recent Negative Trends of OLR as Observed by CERES

Anomalies and trends of OLR serve as important indicators of climate change. Several satellite based instruments currently provide information related to OLR. CERES, on board the EOS Aqua and Terra satellites, contains broad band radiometers that measure total flux and short-wave flux, from which OLR is determined. AIRS is a high spectral resolution IR sounder on EOS Aqua that measures IR radiances covering most of the spectral interval 650/cm to 2670/cm. These observations enable the determination of detailed information about atmospheric temperature, moisture, and ozone profiles, as well as surface skin temperatures and cloud parameters. The AIRS OLR product is the total flux over the spectral interval 2/cm to 2750/cm computed for the surface and atmospheric state determined from AIRS observations. We compared spatial anomalies and trends of OLR, over the seven year period September 2002 through August 2009, as observed by CERES and computed using Version-5 AIRS products. These two sets of OLR anomalies and trends, obtained in very different ways, agree with each other almost perfectly in essentially every detail. This important finding shows that a very stable high spectral infra-red sounder such as AIRS corroborates the anomalies and trends of OLR obtained from CERES. More significantly, anomalies and trends of the individual geophysical parameters derived from AIRS explain the detailed causes of the anomalies and trends of CERES OLR. Both sets of results show that global mean OLR has been decreasing at a rate of 0.12 W/sq m/yr over the seven year time period under study. Both also confirm that the primary cause of this is due to changes in the tropics, in which OLR has been decreasing at a rate of 0.27 W/sq m/yr. AIRS products show that the decrease of tropical OLR is a result of increasing tropical atmospheric water vapor and cloud cover over that time period studied, which in turn is responding to a very strong La Nina; a event starting in late 2007. Equatorial ocean temperatures between 160 E and 120 W cooled considerably during this time period, with corresponding local decreases in mid-tropospheric humidity and cloud cover, resulting in increases in local OLR. This was more than compensated by substantial increases in water vapor and cloud cover elsewhere in the tropics, resulting in a net decrease in tropical OLR. The AIRS Version-5 products currently extend through December 2009. An El Nino event began in late 2009. AIRS products show that tropical OLR began to increase at that time, and there was a corresponding reversal of sign of tropical cloud and water vapor anomalies.

Susskind, Joel↗

NASA NTRS2010

Can Thermal Nonequilibrium Explain Coronal Loops?

Any successful model of coronal loops must explain a number of observed properties. For warm (approx. 1 MK) loops, these include: 1. excess density, 2. flat temperature profile, 3. super-hydrostatic scale height, 4. unstructured intensity profile, and 5. 1000-5000 s lifetime. We examine whether thermal nonequilibrium can reproduce the observations by performing hydrodynamic simulations based on steady coronal heating that decreases exponentially with height. We consider both monolithic and multi-stranded loops. The simulations successfully reproduce certain aspects of the observations, including the excess density, but each of them fails in at least one critical way. -Xonolithic models have far too much intensity structure, while multi-strand models are either too structured or too long-lived. Storms of nanoflares remain the only viable explanation for warm loops that has been proposed so far. Our results appear to rule out the widespread existence of heating that is both highly concentrated low in the corona and steady or quasi-steady (slowly varying or impulsive with a rapid cadence). Active regions would have a very different appearance if the dominant heating mechanism had these properties. Thermal nonequilibrium may nonetheless play an important role in prominences and catastrophic cooling e(veen.gts..,coronal rain) that occupy a small fraction of the coronal volume. However, apparent inconsistencies between the models and observations of cooling events have yet to be understood.

Klimchuk, James A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

AIRS Water Vapor and Cloud Products Validate and Explain Recent Negative Global and Tropical OLR Trends Observed by CERES

This paper compares spatial and temporal anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed based on AIRS retrieved surface and atmospheric geophysical parameters over the time period September 2002 February 2010. This time period is marked by a substantial decreasing OLR trend on the order of -0.1 W/m2/yr averaged over the globe. There are very large spatial variations of these trends however, with local values ranging from -2.6 W/m2/yr to +3.0 W/m2/yr in the tropics. The spatial patterns of the AIRS and CERES trends are in essentially perfect agreement with each other, as are the anomaly time series averaged over different spatial regions. This essentially perfect agreement of OLR anomalies and trends derived from observations by two different instruments, in totally independent and different manners, implies that both sets of results must be highly accurate. The agreement of anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed from AIRS derived products also indirectly validates the anomalies and trends of the AIRS derived products as well. We used the anomalies and trends of AIRS derived water vapor and cloud products to explain why global OLR has had a large negative trend over the time period September 2002 through February 2010. Tropical OLR began to decrease significantly at the onset of a strong La Nina in mid-2007. AIRS products show that cloudiness and mid-tropospheric water vapor began to increase in the region 5degN - 20degS latitude extending eastward from 150degW - 30 E longitude at that time, with a corresponding very large drop in OLR in this region. Late 2009 is characterized by a strong El-Nino, with a corresponding change in sign of observed anomalies of mid-tropospheric water vapor, cloud cover, and OLR in this region, as we] l as that of OLR anomalies in the tropics and globally. Monthly mean anomalies of OLR, water vapor and cloud cover over this region are all shown to be highly correlated in time with those of an El Nino anomaly index four months previously. The El Nino index is defined as the SST anomaly averaged over the area 15S to 15N and 160W eastward to 30E. If one excludes the area 5degN - 20degS, 150degW - 30degE from the statistics, the negative area mean tropical OLR trends, as well as OLR trends over the rest of the globe, are substantially

Susskind, Joel↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Role of Forcing and Internal Dynamics in explaining the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly'

Proxy reconstructions suggest that peak global temperature during the past warm interval known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, roughly 950-1250 AD) has been exceeded only during the most recent decades. To better understand the origin of this warm period, we use model simulations constrained by data assimilation establishing the spatial pattern of temperature changes that is most consistent with forcing estimates, model physics and the empirical information contained in paleoclimate proxy records. These numerical experiments demonstrate that the reconstructed spatial temperature pattern of the MCA can be explained by a simple thermodynamical response of the climate system to relatively weak changes in radiative forcing combined with a modification of the atmospheric circulation, displaying some similarities with the positive phase of the so-called Arctic Oscillation, and with northward shifts in the position of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio currents. The mechanisms underlying the MCA are thus quite different from anthropogenic mechanisms responsible for modern global warming.

Goossee, Hugues↗

NASA NTRS2014

Explaining Earths Energy Budget: CERES-Based NASA Resources for K-12 Education and Public Outreach

Among atmospheric scientists, the importance of the Earth radiation budget concept is well understood. Papers have addressed the topic for over 100 years, and the large Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) science team (among others), with its multiple on-orbit instruments, is working hard to quantify the details of its various parts. In education, Earth's energy budget is a concept that generally appears in middle school and Earth science curricula, but its treatment in textbooks leaves much to be desired. Students and the public hold many misconceptions, and very few people have an appreciation for the importance of this energy balance to the conditions on Earth. More importantly, few have a correct mental model that allows them to make predictions and understand the effect of changes such as increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. As an outreach element of the core CERES team at NASA Langley, a multi-disciplinary group of scientists, educators, graphic artists, writers, and web developers has been developing and refining graphics and resources to explain the Earth's Energy budget over the last few decades. Resources have developed through an iterative process involving ongoing use in front of a variety of audiences, including students and teachers from 3rd to 12th grade as well as public audiences.

Chambers, L. H.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Advection of Potential Temperature in the Atmosphere of Irradiated Exoplanets: A Robust Mechanism to Explain Radius Inflation

The anomalously large radii of strongly irradiated exoplanets have remained a major puzzle in astronomy. Based on a two-dimensional steady-state atmospheric circulation model, the validity of which is assessed by comparison to three-dimensional calculations, we reveal a new mechanism, namely the advection of the potential temperature due to mass and longitudinal momentum conservation, a process occurring in the Earth's atmosphere or oceans. In the deep atmosphere, the vanishing heating flux forces the atmospheric structure to converge to a hotter adiabat than the one obtained with 1D calculations, implying a larger radius for the planet. Not only do the calculations reproduce the observed radius of HD 209458b, but also reproduce the observed correlation between radius inflation and irradiation for transiting planets. Vertical advection of potential temperature induced by non-uniform atmospheric heating thus provides a robust mechanism to explain the inflated radii of irradiated hot Jupiters.

tmospheric effects; methods: numerical; planets an↗

NASA NTRS2018

Explaining the Asymmetric Line Profile in Cepheus X-4 with Spectral Variation Across Pulse Phase

The high mass X-ray binary Cepheus X-4, during its 2014 outburst, showed evidence for an asymmetric cyclotron line in its hard X-ray spectrum. The 2014 spectrum provides one of the clearest cases of an asymmetric line profile among all studied sources with Cyclotron Resonance Scattering Features (CRSF). We present a phase-resolved analysis of NuSTAR and Suzaku data taken at the peak and during the decline phases of this outburst. We find that the pulse-phased resolved spectra are well-fit by a single, symmetric cyclotron feature. The fit parameters vary strongly with pulse phase: most notably the central energy and depth of the cyclotron feature, the slope of the power-law component, and the absorbing column density. We synthesise a ‘phase averaged’ spectrum using the best-fitting parameters for these individual pulse phases, and find that this combined model spectrum has a similar asymmetry in the cyclotron features as discovered in phase-averaged data. We conclude that the pulse phase resolved analysis with simple symmetric line profiles when combined can explain the asymmetry detected in the phase-averaged data.

Bhargave, Yash↗

NASA NTRS2019

Can Organic Haze and O2 Plumes Explain Patterns of Sulfur Mass-Independent Fractionation During the Archean?

The existence of mass-independently fractionated sulfur in Archean rocks is almost universally accepted as evidence for low atmospheric O2 and O3 concentrations at that time. But the detailed patterns of the values and of the ratios / and / remain to be explained, and the mechanism for producing the mass-independent fractionation remains controversial. Here, we explore the hypothesis that the relatively low values seen during the Mid-Archean, 2.7-3.5 Ga, were caused by the presence of organic haze produced from photolysis of methane. This haze helped shield SO2 from photolysis, while at the same time providing surfaces on which unfractionated short-chain sulfur species could condense. The evolution of oxygenic photosynthesis, and the concomitant disappearance of organic haze towards the end of the Archean allowed more negatively fractionated S4 and S8 to form, thereby generating large positive fractionations in other sulfur species, including sulfate and H2S. Reduction of this sulfate to H2S by bacteria, followed by incorporation of H2S into pyrite, produced the large positive values observed in the Neoarchean rock record, 2.5-2.7 Ga.

Great Oxidation Event↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Ten Lockheed Martin Cyber-Physical Challenges: Formalized, Analyzed, and Explained

Capturing and analyzing requirements of Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) can be challenging, since CPS models typically involve time-varying and real-valued variables, physical system dynamics, or even adaptive behavior. MATLAB/Simulinkis a development and simulation framework that is widely used in industry to capture such systems. In this paper, we report on the application of NASA Ames tools to perform end-to-end analysis of the Ten Lockheed Martin Challenge Problems (LMCPS). LMCPS is a set of industrial Simulink model benchmarks and natural language requirements developed by domain experts. Our framework, which integrates the tools FRET and COCOSIM, is used to: 1) elicit, explain, and formalize the semantics of the given natural language requirements; 2) generate verification code and monitors that can be automatically attached to the Simulink models; 3) perform verification by using SMT-based model checkers. FRET and COCOSIM are open source, and can be used by other researchers and practitioners to replicate our case study. We provide a categorization of recurring patterns in the formalization of the requirements and discuss the strengths and weaknesses of our automated verification approach.

Anastasia Mavridou↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multi-Class Anomaly Detection in Flight Data using Semi-Supervised Explainable Deep Learning Model

Identifying precursor for safety incidents in aviation data is a crucial task, yet extremely challenging. The main approach, in practice, leverages domain expertise to define expected tolerances in system’s behavior and alarm exceedance from such safety margins. However, this approach is incapable of identifying unknown risk and vulnerabilities. Machine learning has been long studied and deployed to identify precursors for such anomalies, with the great challenge of the need for sufficient labelled set of data to achieve a reliable and accurate performance. In this article, we develop an explainable deep semi-supervised model for anomaly detection in aviation, building upon recent advancements in the machine learning literature. The proposed model combines feature engineering and classification in the feature space, while leveraging all available data (labelled and unlabeled). Validating on two case studies of anomaly detection in take-off and landing phases of commercial aircraft, we show that our model is able to outperform state-of-the-art supervised anomaly detection model and reach significantly high accuracy and low false alarm with minimum amount of available labelled data.

Anomaly Detection↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Sufficient Component Cause Model Explaining Low-Dose Radiobiology through an Epidemiologic Lens

One of the major challenges in understanding space radiation-induced carcinogenesis is the uncertainty from translating radiobiological research in cellular and animal models to humans, especially at doses below 100 mSv. Biological studies have shown a host of potential outcomes at low doses in animal and cellular models. The existence of non-targeted effects as bystander and abscopal effects is well-documented from clinical research and basic science1,2,3. While some studies have shown increased effects at low doses, others have shown evidence of hormetic bystander effects, where radiation exposure may be beneficial4,5,6. Despite these varied and diverse findings, epidemiologic studies largely support the linear-no threshold (LNT) assumption used by radiation protection guidance7,8. Translational animal-to-human models have predominantly considered ratio values such as the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) and dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor (DDREF) that rely on the assumption of LNT rather than implementing specific dose-response shapes in the low-dose region, and translational cell-to-human models are uncommon. The sufficient component cause model presents an opportunity to examine biological findings at low doses from an epidemiological lens9. In this model, exposures “sufficient” to cause an outcome of interest are presented in pie charts, such that when all slices of a pie chart are fulfilled, the outcome will occur. Multiple pie charts may exist for a single outcome, illustrating individual differences9. In 1988,Greenland and Poole adapted the sufficient component cause model to incorporate interaction with other exposures (such as genetics or lifestyle factors)10. They show that a range of biological processes are possible in a population, but that an epidemiologic study will only reveal the mean outcome from the population at large10,11. Using this construct, the multiple outcomes presented in radiobiological models to date can be explained in the context of epidemiologic studies. This presentation aims to demonstrate a causal framework that can integrate radiobiological and epidemiological models to date. It is intended as a conversation starter to spur future research.

C M Milder↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Potential Outcome Model: Explaining Low-Dose Radiobiology through an Epidemiologic Lens

One of the major challenges in understanding space radiation-induced carcinogenesis is the uncertainty from translating radiobiological research in cellular and animal models to humans, especially at doses below 100 mSv. Biological studies have shown a host of potential outcomes at lowdoses in animal and cellular models. The existence of non-targeted effects as bystander and abscopal effects is well-documented from clinical research and basic science1,2,3. While some studies have shown increased effects at low doses, others have shown evidence of hormetic bystander effects, where radiation exposure may be beneficial4,5,6. Despite these varied and diverse findings, epidemiologic studies largely support the linear-no threshold (LNT) assumption used by radiation protection guidance7,8. Translational animal-to-human models have predominantly considered ratio values such as the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) and dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor (DDREF) that rely on the assumption of LNT rather than implementing specific dose-response shapes in the low-dose region, and translational cell-to-human models are uncommon. The sufficient component cause model presents an opportunity to examine biological findings at low doses from an epidemiological lens9. In this model, exposures “sufficient” to cause an outcome of interest are presented in pie charts, such that when all slices of a pie chart are fulfilled, the outcome will occur. Multiple pie charts may exist for a single outcome, illustrating individual differences9. In 1988,Greenland and Poole adapted the sufficient component cause model to incorporate interaction with other exposures (such as genetics or lifestyle factors)10. They show that a range of biological processes are possible in a population, but that an epidemiologic study will only reveal the mean outcome from the population at large10,11. Using this construct, the multiple outcomes presented in radiobiological models to date can be explained in the context of epidemiologic studies. This presentation aims to demonstrate a causal framework that can integrate radiobiological and epidemiological models to date. It is intended as a conversation starter to spur future research.

C M Milder↗

NASA NTRS2022

Canopy height and climate dryness parsimoniously explain spatial variation of unstressed stomatal conductance

The spatio-temporal variation of stomatal conductance directly regulates photosynthesis, water partitioning, and biosphere-atmosphere interactions. While many studies have focused on stomatal response to stresses, the spatial variation of unstressed stomatal conductance remains poorly determined, and is usually characterized in land surface models (LSMs) simply based on plant functional type (PFT). Here, we derived unstressed stomatal conductance at the ecosystem-scale using observations from 115 global FLUXNET sites. When aggregated by PFTs, the across-PFT pattern was highly consistent with the parameterizations of LSMs. However, PFTs alone captured only 17% of the variation in unstressed stomatal conductance across sites. Within the same PFT, unstressed stomatal conductance was negatively related to climate dryness and canopy height, which explained 45% of the total spatial variation. Our results highlight the importance of plant environment interactions in shaping stomatal traits. The trait-environment relationship established here provides an empirical approach for improved parameterizations of stomatal conductance in LSMs.

Yanlan Liu↗

NASA NTRS2022

Using an Explainable Machine Learning Approach to Characterize Earth System Model Errors: Application of SHAP Analysis to Modeling Lightning Flash Occurrence

Computational models of the Earth System are critical tools for modern scientific inquiry. Effortstoward evaluating and improving errors in representations of physical and chemical processes inthese large computational systems are commonly stymied by highly nonlinear and complexerror behavior. Recent work has shown that these errors can be effectively predicted usingmodern Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) techniques. In this work, we go beyond these previousstudies to apply an interpretable A.I. technique to not only predict model errors but also movetoward understanding the underlying reasons for successful error prediction. We use XGBoostclassification trees and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis to explore the errors inthe prediction of lightning occurrence in the NASA GEOS model, a widely used Earth SystemModel. This explainable error prediction system can effectively predict the model error andindicates that the errors are strongly related to convective processes and the characteristics ofthe land surface.

Artificial intelligence↗

NASA NTRS2023

Rapid transition from primary to secondary crust building on the Moon explained by mantle overturn

Geochronology indicates a rapid transition (tens of Myrs) from primary to secondary crust building on the Moon. The processes responsible for initiating secondary magmatism, however, remain in debate. Here we test the hypothesis that the earliest secondary crust (Mg-suite) formed as a direct consequence of density-driven mantle overturn, and advance 3D mantle convection models to quantify the resulting extent of lower mantle melting. Our modeling demonstrates that overturn of thin ilmenite-bearing cumulates ≤ 100 km triggers a rapid and short-lived episode of lower mantle melting which explains the key volume, geochronological, and spatial characteristics of early secondary crust building without contributions from other energy sources, namely KREEP (potassium, rare earth elements, phosphorus, radiogenic U, Th). Observations of globally distributed Mg-suite eliminate degree-1 overturn scenarios. We propose that gravitational instabilities in magma ocean cumulate piles are major driving forces for the onset of mantle convection and secondary crust building on differentiated bodies.

Moon↗