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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Hybridizing Machine Learning and Physically-based Earth System Models to Improve Prediction of Multivariate Extreme Events (AI Exploration of Wildland Fire Prediction)

Focal Areas: This project responds to two focal areas identified in the DOE Call for AI4ESP White Papers: 1) Predictive modeling through the use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, and 2) insights gleaned from complex data using explainable AI and big data analytics. Science Challenge: Large wildland fires (hereafter wildfires) appearing as high-impact compound climate extreme events are closely related to hydroclimate and water cycle extremes that modulate surface fuel supply and combustibility. These compound events have multivariate climatic features (e.g., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind, lightning) and societal drivers (e.g., forest management, land use change, human caused ignitions). Meanwhile, they induce strong feedbacks to the coupled atmosphere, biosphere, and hydrosphere by perturbing regional and global radiation budget as well as ecological, biogeochemical, and water cycles across multiple spatiotemporal scales. The nonlinear interactions between these natural and anthropogenic components of the Earth system are too complex to be completely and adequately represented in today’s Earth system models (ESMs). The inherent stochastic nature of fire activity at all scales further increases the difficulty of its prediction using ESMs that are usually developed from deterministic equations and parameterizations. Besides, concurrence of long-term (decadal to interdecadal) global climate change and fire regime shifts overlapping with short-term (intraseasonal to interannual) variations of regional fire weather and burning activity confound predictability of these compound extreme events. We propose to address the above scientific challenges by using machine learning (ML)-based data-driven modeling techniques to integrate observations and physically-based ESMs’ simulations in a computationally efficient hybrid prediction system. This prediction system is supposed to characterize the wildfire’s sensitivity to climate and exogenous drivers at high resolution (~ 0.25°) on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales providing improved predictability and explainability. We will use the system to help identify: (1) What are the computational elements of a hybrid system needed to predict compound climate extreme events such as global wildfires? (2) What are the key drivers (either natural or anthropogenic) that modulate short-term variations of multivariate fire weather and burning activity over different regions? How can one take advantage of those driver-response relationships to improve the predictability of large wildfires on S2S time scales? (3) What are the underlying physical mechanisms and sources of improved predictability? Which ML techniques are optimal in revealing and adapting these mechanisms?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

TCR-H: explainable machine learning prediction of T-cell receptor epitope binding on unseen datasets

Artificial-intelligence and machine-learning (AI/ML) approaches to predicting T-cell receptor (TCR)-epitope specificity achieve high performance metrics on test datasets which include sequences that are also part of the training set but fail to generalize to test sets consisting of epitopes and TCRs that are absent from the training set, i.e., are ‘unseen’ during training of the ML model. We present TCR-H, a supervised classification Support Vector Machines model using physicochemical features trained on the largest dataset available to date using only experimentally validated non-binders as negative datapoints. TCR-H exhibits an area under the curve of the receiver-operator characteristic (AUC of ROC) of 0.87 for epitope ‘hard splitting’ (i.e., on test sets with all epitopes unseen during ML training), 0.92 for TCR hard splitting and 0.89 for ‘strict splitting’ in which neither the epitopes nor the TCRs in the test set are seen in the training data. Furthermore, we employ the SHAP (Shapley additive explanations) eXplainable AI (XAI) method for post hoc interrogation to interpret the models trained with different hard splits, shedding light on the key physiochemical features driving model predictions. TCR-H thus represents a significant step towards general applicability and explainability of epitope:TCR specificity prediction.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

NASA Framework for the Ethical Use of Artificial Intelligence (AI)

The NASA Framework for the Ethical Use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) provides six key principles to guide NASA's use of AI. The principles are NASA's AI must be 1. Fair, 2., Explainable and transparent, 3. Accountable, 4. Secure and safe, 5. Human-centric and societally beneficial, and 6. Scientifically and technically robust. The framework describes each ethical AI principle, and then applies that principle to NASA work. The framework also includes a list of questions practitioners should use to guide their AI work. Finally, the framework focuses on concrete, practical considerations for the next five - ten years, while also beginning to lay the foundation for longer-term disruptive change as human-level (or beyond) AI is created.

Artificial Intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2026

Explainable tokamak-agnostic forecasting of fusion plasma instability via megahertz turbulent fluctuations

Scientific applications of artificial intelligence (AI) often remain limited by device-specific training and unexplained “black-box” approaches, creating fundamental barriers to cross-system generalization. This challenge is critical for nuclear fusion, where future reactors will have limited operational data for AI training. Here, we demonstrate that our neural network, trained solely on megahertz-scale turbulence measurements from one machine (DIII-D), forecasts Type-I edge localized mode (ELM) onsets in a different tokamak (KSTAR) through zero-shot weight transfer following physics-consistent preprocessing without device-specific retraining. Through an explainable AI framework combining gradient-weighted class activation mapping with physics validation, we reveal that our network can internalize physics relationships governing the ELM instabilities rather than memorizing device-specific patterns. The network perceives spatiotemporal features that correlate consistently with independently calculated instability growth rates, magnetohydrodynamic stability limits, and pedestal structure dynamics. Statistical analyses of dimensionally-reduced saliency features reveal the identical triangular features between the saliency representations, instability growth rates, and prediction probability across tokamaks, providing evidence that our forecasting system can show tokamak-agnostic generalization. This work contributes to a foundation for explainable scientific AI systems, where cross-system developments are essential for transcending traditional domain-specific constraints.

AI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using an Explainable Machine Learning Approach to Characterize Earth System Model Errors: Application of SHAP Analysis to Modeling Lightning Flash Occurrence

Abstract Computational models of the Earth System are critical tools for modern scientific inquiry. Efforts toward evaluating and improving errors in representations of physical and chemical processes in these large computational systems are commonly stymied by highly nonlinear and complex error behavior. Recent work has shown that these errors can be effectively predicted using modern Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) techniques. In this work, we go beyond these previous studies to apply an explainable A.I. technique to not only predict model errors but also move toward understanding the underlying reasons for successful error prediction. We use XGBoost classification trees and SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis to explore the errors in the prediction of lightning occurrence in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model, a widely used Earth System Model. This explainable error prediction system can effectively predict the model error and indicates that the errors are strongly related to convective processes and the characteristics of the land surface.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Regulation compliant AI for fusion: explainable image-based feedback control of divertor detachment in DIII-D tokamak

While artificial intelligence (AI) has been promising for fusion control, its inherent black-box nature will make compliant implementation in regulatory environments a challenge. This study implements and validates a real-time AI-enabled linear and interpretable control system for successful divertor detachment control with the DIII-D lower divertor camera. Using D 2 gas, we demonstrate successful feedback divertor detachment control with a mean absolute difference of 2% from the target for both detachment and reattachment. This automatic training and linear processing framework can be extended to any image-based diagnostic for future fusion reactors.

computer vision↗
DOE OSTI2021

TX$^2$: Transformer eXplainability and eXploration

The Transformer eXplainability and eXploration (Martindale & Stewart, 2021), or TX 2 software package, is a library designed for artificial intelligence researchers to better understand the performance of transformer models (Vaswani et al., 2017) used for sequence classification. The tool is capable of integrating with a trained transformer model and a dataset split into training and testing populations to produce an ipywidget (Project Jupyter Contributors, 2021) dashboard with a number of visualizations to understand model performance with an emphasis on explainability and interpretability. The TX 2 package is primarily intended to integrate into a workflow centered around Jupyter Notebooks (Kluyver et al., 2016), and currently assumes the use of PyTorch (Paszke et al., 2019) and Hugging Face transformers library (Wolf et al., 2020). The dashboard includes visualization and data exploration features to aid researchers, including an interactive UMAP embedding graph (McInnes et al., 2018) to understand classification clusters, a word salience map that can be updated as researchers alter textual entries in near real time, a set of tools to understand word frequency and importance based on the clusters in the UMAP embedding graph, and a set of traditional confusion matrix analysis tools.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning in materials science: From explainable predictions to autonomous design

The advent of big data and algorithmic developments in the field of machine learning (and artificial intelligence, in general) have greatly impacted the entire spectrum of physical sciences, including materials science. Materials data, measured or computed, combined with various techniques of machine learning have been employed to address a myriad of challenging problems, such as, development of efficient and predictive surrogate models for a range of materials properties, screening and down-selection of novel candidate materials for targeted applications, new methodologies to improve and further expedite molecular and atomistic simulations, with likely many more important developments to come in the foreseeable future. While the applications thus far have provided a glimpse of the true potential data-enabled routes have to offer, it has also become clear that further progress in this direction hinges on our ability to understand, explain and rationalize findings of a machine learning model in light of the domain-knowledge. This focused review provides an overview of the main areas where machine learning has been widely and successfully used in materials science. Subsequently, a brief discussion of several techniques that have been helpful in extracting physically-meaningful insights, causal relationships and design-centric knowledge from materials data is provided. Finally, we identify some of the imminent opportunities and challenges that materials community faces in this exciting and rapidly growing field.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Leveraging Community and Author Context to Explain the Performance and Bias of Text-Based Deception Detection Models

Deceptive news posts shared in online communities can be detected with NLP models, and much recent research has focused on the development of such models. In this work, we use characteristics of online communities and authors --- the context of how and where content is posted --- to explain the performance of a neural network deception detection model and identify sub-populations who are disproportionately affected by model accuracy or failure. We examine who is posting the content, and where the content is posted to. We find that while author characteristics are better predictors of deceptive content than community characteristics, both characteristics are strongly correlated with model performance. Traditional performance metrics such as F1 score may fail to capture poor model performance on isolated sub-populations such as specific authors, and as such, more nuanced evaluation of deception detection models is critical.

machine learning (ML), machine learning explanatio↗
DOE OSTI2021

Appendices for Geothermal Exploration Artificial Intelligence Report

The Geothermal Exploration Artificial Intelligence looks to use machine learning to spot geothermal identifiers from land maps. This is done to remotely detect geothermal sites for the purpose of energy uses. Such uses include enhanced geothermal system (EGS) applications, especially regarding finding locations for viable EGS sites. This submission includes the appendices and reports formerly attached to the Geothermal Exploration Artificial Intelligence Quarterly and Final Reports. The appendices below include methodologies, results, and some data regarding what was used to train the Geothermal Exploration AI. The methodology reports explain how specific anomaly detection modes were selected for use with the Geo Exploration AI. This also includes how the detection mode is useful for finding geothermal sites. Some methodology reports also include small amounts of code. Results from these reports explain the accuracy of methods used for the selected sites (Brady Desert Peak and Salton Sea). Data from these detection modes can be found in some of the reports, such as the Mineral Markers Maps, but most of the raw data is included the DOE Database which includes Brady, Desert Peak, and Salton Sea Geothermal Sites.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2022

Using an Explainable Machine Learning Approach to Characterize Earth System Model Errors: Application of SHAP Analysis to Modeling Lightning Flash Occurrence

Computational models of the Earth System are critical tools for modern scientific inquiry. Effortstoward evaluating and improving errors in representations of physical and chemical processes inthese large computational systems are commonly stymied by highly nonlinear and complexerror behavior. Recent work has shown that these errors can be effectively predicted usingmodern Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) techniques. In this work, we go beyond these previousstudies to apply an interpretable A.I. technique to not only predict model errors but also movetoward understanding the underlying reasons for successful error prediction. We use XGBoostclassification trees and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis to explore the errors inthe prediction of lightning occurrence in the NASA GEOS model, a widely used Earth SystemModel. This explainable error prediction system can effectively predict the model error andindicates that the errors are strongly related to convective processes and the characteristics ofthe land surface.

Artificial intelligence↗
NASA NTRS1980

Decision making and problem solving with computer assistance

In modern guidance and control systems, the human as manager, supervisor, decision maker, problem solver and trouble shooter, often has to cope with a marginal mental workload. To improve this situation, computers should be used to reduce the operator from mental stress. This should not solely be done by increased automation, but by a reasonable sharing of tasks in a human-computer team, where the computer supports the human intelligence. Recent developments in this area are summarized. It is shown that interactive support of operator by intelligent computer is feasible during information evaluation, decision making and problem solving. The applied artificial intelligence algorithms comprehend pattern recognition and classification, adaptation and machine learning as well as dynamic and heuristic programming. Elementary examples are presented to explain basic principles.

Kraiss, F.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Geophysical Retrievals in an Artificial Intelligence (AI) Framework for Illuminating Processes Controlling Water Cycle

Focal Area(s): This white paper responds to Focal Area #3: Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI. Science Challenge: This white paper addresses the water-cycle and data-model integration grand challenge. It leverages data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility, and Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiment (NGEE), and Science Focus Area (SFA). The white paper focuses on controlling cloud, precipitation, and radiative properties as observed and simulated by the Earth System Models (ESM). The described framework can be readily applied to any other ensemble of instruments, including satellites and other ground-based networks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Barriers to adopting artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies in nuclear power

Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) technologies offer unique opportunities to transform nuclear plant operations and power generation. Benefits will be felt not only within existing analog and digital instrumentation and control, but also within work processes, the integration of people with technology and most importantly, the business case. The application of this new technology can help simplify complex problems and produce more effective decision-making, making nuclear power safer, more efficient, and more economically viable in the current energy market. Nonetheless, there are potential barriers to its adoption that must be overcome. The purpose of this paper is to categorize, review, and discuss barriers to AI/ML adoption within the nuclear power industry, with a focus on existing commercial reactors. Unique considerations for advanced reactors are also offered. Here we provide a comprehensive overview of the historical, technical, and business barriers that the industry faces, as well as stakeholder readiness, and end-user acceptance. We underscore the importance of user experience and offer potential solutions in overcoming each barrier. These include provisions for easier plant data access, a friendly regulatory environment, and investment in user trust and explainable AI.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

SetBERT: the deep learning platform for contextualized embeddings and explainable predictions from high-throughput sequencing

MOTIVATION: High-throughput sequencing (HTS) is a modern sequencing technology used to profile microbiomes by sequencing thousands of short genomic fragments from the microorganisms within a given sample. This technology presents a unique opportunity for artificial intelligence to comprehend the underlying functional relationships of microbial communities. However, due to the unstructured nature of HTS data, nearly all computational models are limited to processing DNA sequences individually. This limitation causes them to miss out on key interactions between microorganisms, significantly hindering our understanding of how these interactions influence the microbial communities as a whole. Furthermore, most computational methods rely on post-processing of samples which could inadvertently introduce unintentional protocol-specific bias. RESULTS: Addressing these concerns, we present SetBERT, a robust pre-training methodology for creating generalized deep learning models for processing HTS data to produce contextualized embeddings and be fine-tuned for downstream tasks with explainable predictions. By leveraging sequence interactions, we show that SetBERT significantly outperforms other models in taxonomic classification with genus-level classification accuracy of 95%. Furthermore, we demonstrate that SetBERT is able to accurately explain its predictions autonomously by confirming the biological-relevance of taxa identified by the model. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: All source code is available at https://github.com/DLii-Research/setbert. SetBERT may be used through the q2-deepdna QIIME 2 plugin whose source code is available at https://github.com/DLii-Research/q2-deepdna.

Ludwig, David W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Demonstration and Evaluation of Explainable and Trustworthy Predictive Technology for Condition-based Maintenance

The domestic nuclear power plant (NPP) fleet has historically relied on labor-intensive and time-consuming predictive maintenance (PdM) programs, thus driving up operation and maintenance (O&M) costs to achieve high-capacity factors. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine-learning (ML) can help simplify complex problems such as diagnosing equipment degradation to enable more effective decision-making efforts. The benefits of AI will be felt through more efficient plant O&M, improved work processes, and better integration of people and technology. Together, these benefits hold the promise to make nuclear power more sustainable by reducing O&M costs while improving employee engagement. While AI and ML technologies hold significant promise for the nuclear industry, there are challenges or barriers to their adoption. Explainability and trustworthiness of AI are two salient challenges that need to be addressed for wider deployment of these technologies in NPPs. This research focuses specifically on addressing the explainability and trustworthiness of AI technologies to advance the human, technical, and organization (HTO) readiness levels in adopting a risk-informed PdM strategy at commercial NPPs. In addition, this approach can be adapted to enhance the acceptability of AI in other nuclear applications with a few application-specific modifications. The technical approach ensuring wider adoption of AI technologies was developed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL)—in collaboration with Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG), Nuclear, LLC—by utilizing the circulating water system (CWS) at two PSEG-owned plant sites for demonstration. Focused user studies were performed in collaboration with subject matter experts (SMEs) from PSEG and other nuclear domains to enhance human and organization readiness by building trust in AI-informed technologies. VIsualization for PrEdictive maintenance Recommendation (VIPER)—a Battelle Energy Alliance, LLC, copyrighted software—was developed and expanded to provide a user-centric visualization by incorporating inputs from the collaborating utility, human factors engineering guidelines, and data analysts. The VIPER software enables users, who may be unfamiliar with ML in general, to be interactively engaged by asking technical questions about PdM, work orders, diagnosis results and their confidence levels, the kind of data being used, and the types of ML algorithms employed. This interactive engagement enhances explainability and builds trust. One of the enabling accomplishments was the integration of large language models (LLMs), both text-based and vision-based, in the VIPER software.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A comparison of probabilistic generative frameworks for molecular simulations

Generative artificial intelligence is now a widely used tool in molecular science. Despite the popularity of probabilistic generative models, numerical experiments benchmarking their performance on molecular data are lacking. Here, in this work, we introduce and explain several classes of generative models, broadly sorted into two categories: flow-based models and diffusion models. We select three representative models: neural spline flows, conditional flow matching, and denoising diffusion probabilistic models, and examine their accuracy, computational cost, and generation speed across datasets with tunable dimensionality, complexity, and modal asymmetry. Our findings are varied, with no one framework being the best for all purposes. In a nutshell, (i) neural spline flows do best at capturing mode asymmetry present in low-dimensional data, (ii) conditional flow matching outperforms other models for high-dimensional data with low complexity, and (iii) denoising diffusion probabilistic models appear the best for low-dimensional data with high complexity. Our datasets include a Gaussian mixture model and the dihedral torsion angle distribution of the Aib9 peptide, generated via a molecular dynamics simulation. We hope our taxonomy of probabilistic generative frameworks and numerical results may guide model selection for a wide range of molecular tasks.

Artificial intelligence↗