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DOE OSTI2025

Acoustic waves from the 2023 April 20 SpaceX Starship rocket explosion travelling in the elevated ‘AtmoSOFAR’ channel

SUMMARY The ability to detect low-frequency sounds from distant energetic events depends on the temperature and wind structure of the atmosphere. Thus, from time to time surface-based acoustic detectors may not be able to capture sounds arriving from certain directions. However, the temperature minimum at the tropopause may create an acoustic duct called the ‘AtmoSOFAR’ channel that could transmit acoustic waves laterally—but perhaps not to the ground. If true, then elevated sensors such as those borne aloft by balloons would record the signatures even in regions where ground-based sensors cannot. This has been difficult to prove because high altitude acoustic sources are rare and balloon deployments are sporadic. This work describes the detection and characterization of powerful acoustic waves generated during the launch and terminal explosion of the SpaceX Starship rocket on 2023 April 20 using a pair of microbarometers on a stratospheric balloon. The signals travelled through the AtmoSOFAR channel, carrying information about the size and nature of their source. This channel also appears to leak some acoustic energy to the ground, in agreement with previous studies. The acoustic yield of the Starship terminal explosion was on the order of $10^3$ tons trinitrotoluene equivalent, which agrees with the estimated fuel load of the vehicle to about a factor of 2, but is two orders of magnitude larger than optical estimates. These results support an earlier study that claimed lateral transmission of sound from a smaller rocket through the AtmoSOFAR channel. The transmission of source information through the AtmoSOFAR channel motivates its use for monitoring other natural and anthropogenic events using balloon-borne sensors. This may become increasingly important as more and more private and government entities conduct spacecraft launches and reentries. It may also provide a means of monitoring clear air turbulence and other sound-generating atmospheric phenomena at a distance.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian event categorization matrix approach for explosion monitoring

Current efforts to correctly categorize natural events from suspected explosion sources with data that is collected by ground- or space-based sensors presents historical challenges that remain unaddressed by the Event Categorization Matrix (ECM) model. Smaller historical events (lower yield explosions) may have data available from fewer measurement techniques than are available today, and therefore, a historical event record can lack a complete set of discriminants. The covariance structures can also differ between such observations of event (source-type) categories. Both obstacles are problematic for the classic ECM model. Our work addresses this gap and presents a Bayesian update to the previous ECM model, termed the Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix model, which can be trained on partial observations and does not rely on a pooled covariance structure. We further augment the ECM model with Bayesian Decision Theory so that false negative or false positive rates of an event categorization can be reduced in an intuitive manner. To demonstrate improved categorization rates for the Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix model, we compare an array of Bayesian and classic models with multiple performance metrics using Monte Carlo experiments. We use both synthetic and real data. Our Bayesian models show consistent gains in overall accuracy and lower false negative rates relative to the classic ECM model. Here, we propose future avenues to improve Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix models’ decision making and predictive capability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improved field assessments of chemicals and explosives using high-resolution gamma-ray spectroscopy with a tagged neutron interrogation system

A field-portable tagged neutron interrogation system is being developed for detection of explosives and chemical warfare agents by prompt γ-ray neutron activation analysis. The system combines an associated particle imaging deuterium-tritium neutron generator with a high-purity germanium γ-ray detector. Fine spatial resolution neutron and α detectors enable precise mapping of characteristic γ-ray emission distributions onto high-clarity neutron radiographic images. A narrow coincidence gate associated with each tagged neutron ensures a large signal-to-background ratio, thus significantly improving sensitivity to the chemical compositions of the items being assessed. Recent experimental results recorded from test objects involving mock explosives and other chemicals are presented.

Bucher, Brian [Idaho National Laboratory (INL)]↗

DOE OSTI2024

Subsurface Spectroscopy of Thermal Degradation Inside an Inert Plastic Bonded Explosive (PBX) Simulant Using Feedback-Assisted Wavefront Shaping

We characterize the subsurface thermal degradation of an inert analog of high-explosive molecular crystals (Eu:Y(acac) 3 (DPEPO)) (EYAD) embedded inside of a plastic bonded explosive simulant using feedback-assisted wavefront shaping-based fluorescence and Raman spectroscopies. This technique utilizes wavefront shaping to focus pump light inside a heterogeneous material onto a target particle, which significantly improves its spectroscopic signature. We find that embedding the EYAD crystals in the heterogeneous polymer results in improved thermal stability, relative to bare crystal measurements, with the crystal remaining fluorescent to >612 K inside of the heterogeneous material, while the bare crystal’s fluorescence is fully quenched by 500 K. We hypothesize that this improvement is due to the polymer restricting the effects of EYAD melting, which occurs at 400 K and is the primary mechanism for spectroscopic changes in the temperature range explored.

Anderson, Benjamin R.↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Inverse Heat Conduction Algorithm Used to Calculate the Temperatures on the Inner and Outer Cylindrical Surfaces of an HMX-based PBX Explosive Annulus

In this work, a new Inverse Heat Conduction (IHC) algorithm is applied to estimate the surface temperatures at twelve locations on the inner and outer cylindrical boundaries of an HMX-based Plastic Bonded Explosive (PBX) annulus. This IHC algorithm was developed in references using a set of Direct Heat Conduction (DHC) solutions and a temperature correction method. The DHC solutions were calculated using a Galerkin based finite element (FE) method. This HMX based PBX annulus was used in the Large Scale Annular Cookoff (LSAC) experiment, Shot 5. The reason Shot 5 was chosen as a prototype mathematical model for this study is that the temperature was measured at eighteen locations in the midplane of the HMX-based PBX annulus. In addition, this annulus underwent an experimental thermal ignition and a deflagration that caused a thermal explosion and the disassembly of the experiment. The objective of this study is to describe how the application of the temperature correction algorithm produced the convergence of the DHC solutions to the measured temperatures at twelve internal locations in the midplane of the HMX-based PBX annulus.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Temporal Explosion Source Processes of Declared Nuclear Tests in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea

In this work we highlight a preliminary temporal source analysis of the six declared Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) nuclear tests. We use regional seismic data to estimate relative source time functions (RSTFs) via iterative time-domain deconvolution (Ammon, 2006; Pippin, 2022) of vertical-component ground motions recorded within 2000 km of the source region. Since RSTFs are ideally independent of site and propagation effects, their amplitude spectrum is equivalent to the source spectral ratio, but they also retain phase information. We compare observed RSTFs (in the time and frequency domains) with synthetic RSTFs derived from the Mueller & Murphy (1971) explosion source model. The resolution of these time functions varies, however, we generally obtain high-quality results within the limitations of the recording broadband instrumentation. The results indicate that this method effectively preserves source time-history information that can be used for temporal analysis of remote nuclear explosions. This preliminary analysis is intended to assess the viability of using time-domain deconvolution methods for extracting temporal source information.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2025

Beyond Magic Barrels: Digital manufacturing for crystallization, process development and optimization of explosive materials: Part II Resveratrol Exemplar

This SAND report summarizes work supported by an Engineering Sciences Research Foundation (ESRF) Lab Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project entitled “Beyond Magic Barrels: Digital manufacturing for crystallization, process development and optimization of explosive materials.” This SAND report is written in two parts with Part 1 discusses recrystallization of our explosive exemplar and Part 2 summarizing our work with recrystallization of resveratrol. We have studied resveratrol recrystallization with a multiscale approach combining experiments, modeling and simulation. At the single crystal scale, microscopy experiments illuminate crystal time-dependent growth rates using advanced image analysis. Bench scale experiments were carried out to look at growth of multiple particles in a small reactor creating thousands of particles and analyzing the results with microscopy and μCT. For the modeling we combine kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) models with subscale information from density functional theory (DFT) or molecular dynamics. This work is discussed in Part 1 and can also be found in a paper from the project discussing a coarse-grained kMC model specifically developed for resveratrol. For well-mixed systems, we have population balance equations (PBE) linked with species mass conservation forming a set of ordinary differential equations that can be solved quickly. For more complicated geometries, such as the vat crystallization used throughout the complex, a coupled computational fluid dynamic (CFD)/PBE method was developed to account for gradients in temperature and concentration and differences in crystallization rates throughout the domain. These simulations are more complex and require high performance computing. We present results for two cases: 5% seed fast cool with parameters fit to the well-mixed case and 5% seed slow cool using the same parameters. We show reasonable agreement with experiments though are particles are significantly larger than the experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Simulator for Neyer Tests of Explosives

Explosives and explosive devices such as detonators are typically tested by applying a range of stimuli such as voltage or mechanical shock, and recording binary “detonated/did not detonate” responses. These are analyzed using maximum likelihood or generalized linear models to provide estimates of quantities such as the all-fire and no-fire points. Given that the true threshold for detonation is unknown a priori , sequential design methods are typically used to optimize the set of test points. One popular method, implemented in commercial software, is Neyer’s algorithm. To support simulation and experimental design, we have developed code in the R programming language to duplicate the functions of the Neyer software. We provide code for the simulator along with a description and examples of usage.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Supernova Explosions of the Lowest-mass Massive Star Progenitors

Abstract We here focus on the behavior of supernovae that technically explode in 1D (spherical symmetry). When simulated in 3D, however, the outcomes of representative progenitors of this class are quite different in almost all relevant quantities. In 3D, the explosion energies can be 2 to 10 times higher, and there are correspondingly large differences in the 56 Ni yields. These differences between the 3D and 1D simulations reflect in part the relative delay to explosion of the latter and in the former the presence of protoneutron star convection that boosts the driving neutrino luminosities by as much as ∼50% at later times. In addition, we find that the ejecta in 3D models are more neutron-rich, resulting in significant weak r -process and 48 Ca yields. Furthermore, we find that in 3D the core is an interesting, though subdominant, source of acoustic power. In summary, we find that though a model might be found theoretically to explode in 1D, one must perform supernova simulations in 3D to capture most of the associated observables. The differences between 1D and 3D models are just too large to ignore.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Gamma Rays as a Signature of r -process Producing Supernovae: Remnants and Future Galactic Explosions

We consider the question of whether core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe) can produce rapid neutron capture process (r-process) elements and how future MeV gamma-ray observations could address this. Rare types of CCSNe characterized by substantial magnetic fields and rotation, known as magnetorotational supernovae (MR-SNe), are theoretically predicted to produce these elements, although direct observational evidence is lacking. We suggest that this critical question be addressed through the study of some of the 11 CCSN remnants located within 10 kpc, as well as through the detection of gamma-ray emission from a future Galactic supernova. We use a two-dimensional MR-SN model to estimate the expected gamma flux stemming from nuclear decays in the range of a few tens of keV to a few MeV. Our results indicate that an observation of 126 Sn ( 126 Sb) in a remnant stands out as a signature of an r-process-producing supernova. Since the neutron-rich conditions that lead to the production of the r-process could also enhance the production of 60 Fe, the detection of substantial 60 Fe ( 60 Co) would be indicative of favorable conditions for the r-process. In the case of a future supernova explosion, when the evolution of the spectrum is studied over 10 days to a few years, a rich picture emerges. At various epochs, the second peak r-process isotopes such as 125 Sn, 131 I, 132 Te, 132 I, and 140 La produce signals that are not obscured by the gamma emission from explosive burning products and electron–positron annihilation. The weak r-process isotopes 95 Nb, 103 Ru, and 106 Rh also have periods of prominence.

Gamma-rays↗

DOE OSTI2026

The effect of dogbone sample size in the tensile testing of TATB-based plastic‑bonded explosive materials

Mechanical properties are of interest for many plastic‑bonded explosive (PBX) materials with tensile properties being of particular interest. Direct tensile measurements using dogbone-shaped samples are considered the gold standard, but they are fairly large, making testing more costly and less desirable from a safety perspective. We investigated whether the measured tensile strength depends on the dogbone specimen size, which to our knowledge, has not been reported in the literature for PBX materials. Understanding this should inform the feasibility of employing smaller samples and how sample size should be considered when comparing PBX dogbone values in the literature. The TATB-based PBX dogbone sample size was varied by (a) scaling all dimensions proportionally and (b) varying only the length of the samples. It was observed that the measured tensile peak stress (strength) was a function of the sample size, and was more dependent on the diameter (cross-sectional area) than the length of the samples. Since peak stress is calculated as peak force normalized to the diameter of the sample, one might not expect an explicit diameter dependence for the peak stress. Therefore, these results suggest there may be an additional strengthening effect as the sample diameter is increased.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Megahertz Rate Optical Diagnostics of Explosively Generated Soot

Detonation of a solid explosive produces a turbulent and luminous post‐detonation fireball containing condensed carbon soot. Diagnostics of soot dynamics are needed for model validation and to interpret emission signals. Diffuse back‐illumination extinction imaging (DBI‐EI) and laser‐induced incandescence (LII) are two common optical diagnostics for flame soot. This work extends both to measure time‐resolved soot dynamics from a 12 mm HMX hemisphere. DBI‐EI measured line‐of‐sight optical extinction exceeds 99% in some regions. Results are tomographically inverted to obtain a signal proportional to the soot volume fraction. Pulse‐burst LII measures are presented at 1 MHz. For the first time, LII results are combined with DBI‐EI extinction measurements to quantify and correct for signal trapping. Following this, spatially and temporally resolved DBI‐EI and LII measures are shown to be in reasonable agreement. Finally, experimental results are compared against recently developed simulations. Quantitative differences in the soot mixing dynamics are resolved. These findings motivate future model improvements and demonstrate ongoing needs for diagnostic advancements for heavily sooting environments.

diffuse back-illumination extinction imaging↗

DOE OSTI2026

Improvement of Drop‐Hammer Impact Testing for Safety Assessment of High Explosives Using 10‐mg Samples

Here, in this study, we established an improved method for drop-hammer impact testing of small quantities of high explosives (10 mg). We performed about seven hundred impact tests under various experimental conditions (e.g., sandpaper vs bare anvil, different sample masses, drop-weights, and striker diameters) to determine an optimal set of conditions and reaction detection methods (e.g., gas analysis, video, and sound recordings) that give the most statistically reliable results with 10 mg samples. We used both Frequentist and Bayesian statistical approaches to compare estimates of the drop height (DH50) that initiates a reaction 50% of the time, and to quantify the associated uncertainty. Gas analysis proved to be the most reliable reaction detection method, showing unambiguous rises in HE decomposition products (e.g., CO 2 ) even when the other indicators (e.g., sound, video) were inconclusive. The impact tests performed with a bare anvil showed much better reproducibility than those conducted with sandpaper, reducing the largest uncertainty observed in the data sets by a factor of 1.7. The DH 50 values obtained from three different sample masses (10, 20, and 35 mg) fell within the uncertainties of the measurements. We demonstrated the improved procedure (i.e., 10-mg samples, gas analysis, bare anvil, and Bayesian approach) on a variety of PETN samples having different surface areas and thermal histories.

PETN↗

DOE OSTI2025

A statistical approach to screening isotopic signatures in monitoring for underground nuclear explosions

The ability to differentiate between atmospheric radionuclide signatures from underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) and signals from other sources, such as medical isotope-production facilities and nuclear reactors, can be critical to the detection and monitoring of unannounced, low-yield nuclear events. Signatures having anomalously high amplitudes, compared to background levels, remain the best indicator in screening for a UNE. However, isotopic composition can further validate a suspected UNE signature, but separation from any atmospheric background composition is first necessary. To date, evaluating the challenges of performing this separation has typically involved comparing an observed background with a highly idealized deterministic model of radioxenon signature production by a UNE that does not consider the influence of post-detonation chemical/physical processes in the detonation cavity or the subsequent gas transport mechanisms that can also affect the isotopic composition of the detected gas signature. In addition, purely deterministic models, as previously employed, overlook the uncertainty inherent in estimating critical parameters characterizing the UNE and its detonation environment. In this paper, we create detailed, multi-parameter models of radionuclide evolution using the widely accepted England and Rider post-detonation radionuclide decay-chain network coupled to detailed models simulating physical production and transport processes affecting the gas signature. Because these models are governed by uncertain parameters including barometric fluctuations, realistic ranges of variation for each of the parameters influencing isotopic composition are then defined. A Latin-Hypercube sampling approach is used to obtain a random distribution of isotopic production and gas transport results associated with a given value of each parameter. We apply these results to background histories of two stations, one providing 4-isotope background measurements and the other providing two-isotope measurements associated with the 2013 DPRK announced UNE.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2026

Anisotropic Hot Spot Formation at a Grain Boundary in Shock-Compressed TATB High Explosive Crystal

Secondary high explosives (HEs) exhibit rich microstructure that promotes the formation of hot spots responsible for detonation initiation, but the role of microstructural interfaces remains poorly quantified. To this end, we develop extensions for the generalized crystal-cutting method (GCCM) to prepare molecular dynamics (MD) simulation cells containing grain boundaries (GBs) and other crystal–crystal interfaces with prescribed tilt and twist orientations. Using the GCCM, we perform MD simulations of shock interactions with a GB between the (001) and (100) crystal facets in the secondary HE TATB (1,3,5-triamino-2,4,6-trinitrobenzene). Our MD simulations reveal a strong directional dependence to the formation of a hot spot at the GB interface. In particular, transmission of the shock from the (001) grain to the (100) grain yields a hot spot in the (100) grain at the GB interface, whereas no hot spot is produced when an equivalent shock transits the GB in the opposite direction. We trace the origin of this GB anisotropy to three dominant factors: (1) the intrinsic differences in shock-deformation mechanisms and wave structures for the bulk (100) and (001) grains, which leads to distinct geometries and mechanical impedances upon shock arrival to the GB depending on which grains are donor or acceptor for the transmitted shock; (2) the different time intervals separating the initial shock rise and the formation of steady wave structures in the respective donor–acceptor configurations; and (3) the differences in time scales required to re-establish local thermal equilibrium. Interfacial hot spots form when these factors combine to impede development of a steady two-wave structure and instead induce a localized, pseudosingly shocked region that undergoes a higher rate of work production (resulting in a higher temperature) compared to when the steady two-wave structure develops further from the interface. The extensions to the GCCM approach presented here are anticipated to facilitate a wide range of MD studies that focus on understanding the role of crystal–crystal interfaces in molecular materials.

organic↗

DOE OSTI2025

First Proton-Induced Cross Sections on a Stored Rare Ion Beam: Measurement of Te 118 ( p , γ ) for Explosive Nucleosynthesis

We present the first nuclear cross-section measurements of (p,$\gamma$) and (p,n) reactions on 118 Te at energies relevant for the $\gamma$-process nucleosynthesis. Absolute cross-section values for center-of-mass energies of 6, 7 and 10 MeV are provided, together with a theoretical extrapolation to the Gamow window. This experiment marks the first time that direct proton-induced reactions have been measured on a radioactive ion beam at the Experimental Storage Ring (ESR) at GSI, Darmstadt. This paves the way for a large variety of measurements, delivering new constraints for explosive nucleosynthesis and for physics beyond nuclear stability.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Physics-Informed Neural Network Performance for Seismic Discrimination between Earthquakes and Explosions

In this article, we evaluate adding a weak physics constraint, that is, a physics‐based empirical relationship, to the loss function with a physics‐informed manner in local distance explosion discrimination in the hope of improving the generalization capability of the machine learning (ML) model. We compare the proposed model with the two‐branch model we previously developed, as well as with a pure data‐driven model. Unexpectedly, the proposed model did not consistently outperform the pure data‐driven model. By varying the level of inconsistency in the training data, we find this approach is modulated by the strength of the physics relationship. In conclusion, this result has important implications for how to best incorporate physical constraints in ML models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Yield Estimates of three Historical Atmospheric Nuclear Explosions at Lop Nor, from Reduced Order Models of Regionally Recorded Rayleigh Waveforms and One Seismic Station: A Brief Communication

We use a reduced order model (ROM) for Rayleigh waveforms sourced by large atmospheric explosions along with data collected from a single seismic station (TLG) to estimate the yields of three atmospheric nuclear tests with order-megaton (MT) yields. These historical tests were conducted by China between 1973 and 1980 (CHIC 15, CHIC 16, and CHIC 26). We use our ROM to estimate yields of 2.34 MT (CHIC 15), 0.51 MT (CHIC 16), and 1.15 (CHIC 26) in the 20.5 s period band that are consistent with publicly accepted values of 3 MT (CHIC 15), 0.50 MT (CHIC 16), and 0.730 MT (CHIC 26).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗