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DOE OSTI2025

Graphene SHDMC Data

The data used to produce all of the figures and tables in the manuscript titled "Highly Accurate Many-Body Theory Reaches 2D Materials" can be found here. This data set includes: -SHDMC results for graphene -selected CI with and without re-normalized second-order perturbation (rPT2) theory corrections for graphene -data demonstrating that SHDMC displays an exponential rate of convergence -data used for sCI + rPT2 complete basis set extrapolation -data used to extrapolate SHDMC energies to the infinite basis limit -data used to demonstrate compactness of SHDMC wavefunction

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2026

Two-stage formation-energy correction (NbZr, TaZr, VZr)

This bundle contains the scripts, the raw and corrected per-structure data, and the manuscript plots for the NbZr / TaZr / VZr BCC binary formation energies and the associated RMSDs. Why a two-stage correction is necessary: The "raw" formation energy of every relaxed VASP configuration is computed in the usual way, FE_raw(c) = E_alloy(c) - sum_i x_i * E_pure_i , where E_pure_i are the per-atom total energies of the pure-element reference structures (Nb, Ta, V, Zr in the same BCC supercell, with identical INCAR / KPOINTS / PAW choices). With perfectly consistent reference runs the raw FE should vanish at the two pure-element endpoints (x = 0 and x = 1) by construction. In practice this does not hold for two reasons that are present in our dataset: 1. Reference-energy inconsistency (composition-dependent bias). Even with identical input parameters, the pure-element runs (stored in `corrected_DFT_pure_element_runs/`) differ slightly from the values that would be implied by the alloy runs at near-pure compositions (a few meV/atom). This bias is approximately linear in concentration, because the residual error in E_pure_Nb (or E_pure_Ta / E_pure_V) propagates into FE_raw(c) as (1 - x) * dE_pure_1, and the corresponding error in E_pure_Zr propagates as x * dE_pure_2. Left uncorrected, this produces a non-physical "tilt" of FE_raw(x) and shifts the entire FE-vs-x cloud away from zero at the endpoints. 2. Endpoint anchoring against the audited true endpoints. The strict endpoint values (FE_x0_meVatom, FE_x1_meVatom in `corrected_fe_strict_endpoints_20260518/strict_endpoint_check_20260518.csv`) were re-derived from an independent cross-check of the pure-element runs. After stage 1 removes the linear bias, the near-pure compositions in the alloy dataset still extrapolate to values that differ slightly from these audited endpoints — because stage 1 is fit from a few near-end alloy bins, not from the audited pure-element references themselves. The README.txt file discusses how these issues are addressed by the two-stage correction, and describes folder layout, pipeline summary, and how to re-run.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Learning genetic perturbation effects with variational causal inference

Advances in sequencing technologies have enhanced the understanding of gene regulation in cells. In particular, Perturb-seq has enabled high-resolution profiling of the transcriptomic response to genetic perturbations at the single-cell level. This understanding has implications in functional genomics and potentially for identifying therapeutic targets. Various computational models have been developed to predict perturbational effects. While deep learning models excel at interpolating observed perturbational data, they tend to overfit in the lack of enough data and may not generalize well to unseen perturbations. In contrast, mechanistic models, such as linear causal models based on gene regulatory networks, hold greater potential for extrapolation, as they encapsulate regulatory information that can predict responses to unseen perturbations. However, their application has been limited to small studies due to overly simplistic assumptions, making them less effective in handling noisy, large-scale single-cell data. We propose a hybrid approach that combines a mechanistic causal model with variational deep learning, termed Single Cell Causal Variational Autoencoder (SCCVAE). The mechanistic model employs a learned regulatory network to represent perturbational changes as shift interventions that propagate through the learned network. SCCVAE integrates this mechanistic causal model into a variational autoencoder, generating rich, comprehensive transcriptomic responses. Our results indicate that SCCVAE exhibits superior performance over current state-of-the-art baselines for extrapolating to predict unseen perturbational responses. Additionally, for the observed perturbations, the latent space learned by SCCVAE allows for the identification of functional perturbation modules and simulation of single-gene knockdown experiments of varying penetrance, presenting a robust tool for interpreting and interpolating perturbational responses at the single-cell level.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Status of permanent magnet radiation resiliency studies at CEBAF

An ongoing investigation for the future of Jefferson Lab’s Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) lies in upgrading its maximum nominal energy using Fixed-Field Alternating-gradient (FFA) technology for its recirculating arcs, using permanent magnets for the FFA arcs. A common concern among the community is the degradation of these permanent magnets during operation due to the radiation environment in which they will be present. This work, funded by a Laboratory Directed R&D grant, aims to measure the permanent magnet degradation in the CEBAF tunnel enclosure, and extrapolate to the energies expected from the upgrade. We present the latest results of this study, as well as plans moving forward.

Accelerator Physics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Maximized Information Gain of Next Generation Pulsed Power Using Optimized Design of Z-Machine Experiments

This project develops a Bayesian optimization approach to extracting insights from Z Machine experimental data to determine if and how these insights can be used to extrapolate to a larger facility. The primary goal is to address the scientific challenge of informing how confidently experimental conditions can be predicted on a next generation facility, the design of which requires the reliable extrapolation of current high energy density technologies to regimes yet unobserved, except by costly high-fidelity computational models. Maximizing the use of presently available data and understanding how it informs future endeavors is critically important to enable transformative pulsed power and the science of extreme conditions. We explore a Bayesian optimization approach to experimental design which combines information theory, experimental data, and computational modeling to explore how information gain can be maximized.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

DIF3D-VARIANT 12.0: Updates and New Features

The DIF3D code has been a workhorse of fast reactor analysis work at Argonne National Laboratory for over 40 years. In 1995, a transport option called VARIANT was added to DIF3D to improve the flux solutions for fast reactor problems which we term DIF3D-VARIANT today. DIF3D-VARIANT performs nodal neutron transport calculations using P N or SP N theory in Cartesian and hexagonal two- and three-dimensional geometries. The limited computing capabilities of the time restricted DIF3D-VARIANT to use at most a 6 th order spatial approximation combined with a P3 flux approximation and P1 scattering kernel for a 33 group structure on most studied reactor problems. Computer capabilities have increased steadily since 1995 and today much larger space-angle-energy approximations are possible. This manuscript serves as an update to the theory section of the original DIF3D-VARIANT manual and details more than twenty years of changes made to DIF3D to make version 12 which was released on November 1 st , 2024. The primary focus of the initial work was to extend the space-angle approximations available in DIF3D-VARIANT such that the error due to transport approximations could be better understood. This work was started and completed in 2002 and marked the official version 10. Unfortunately, those higher order approximations could not be used at that time due to the memory constraints of the BPOINTER part of DIF3D (limited to 2 GB). In version 11, completed in 2012, BPOINTER was circumvented in DIF3D-VARIANT for the largest arrays by introducing a Fortran 90 module called LMA (Large Memory Array). This seamlessly replaces all of the functionality of the BPOINTER concept, but it allows 64 bit addressing for every array such that they can be larger than 2 GB. It is now common for DIF3D-VARIANT jobs to consume 50 GB of memory on modern workstations when using high order space-angle approximations and a large number of groups. Many improvements were made to version 11 from 2012 to 2022 when work to create version 12 started. For version 12, several parts of DIF3D were updated to improve performance and thread parallelism was introduced to further reduce the runtime. Numerous minor bugs were discovered in DIF3D-VARIANT as part of the process of creating the perturbation and sensitivity code PERSENT. All of these algorithmic problems were identified in the transition from version 10 to version 11 which prevented DIF3D-VARIANT from running efficiently and reliably. Firstly, the coarse mesh rebalance scheme would routinely diverge and a study detailed in this report demonstrates how it was also typically not effective. This is not a failure of the coarse mesh rebalance methodology, but a failure of its implementation in DIF3D-VARIANT for hexagonal geometries. The fission source extrapolation algorithm was also found to be unreliable on larger group structure problems, leading to divergence in some cases and a negligible improvement in performance overall. Finally, the “Omega” acceleration applied to the partial current solver routine of DIF3D-VARIANT was found to cause DIF3D-VARIANT to converge to the wrong answer. To resolve these issues, both the coarse mesh rebalance and fission source extrapolation were permanently disabled in version 11. The Tchebychev acceleration was put in as a temporary reliable alternative but it is generally inferior to coarse mesh rebalance or coarse mesh finite difference. For the Omega acceleration, the factor was restricted to guarantee that it would not cause follow-on errors in PERSENT. Due to limited funding to support maintenance and development of DIF3D in the last 10 years, no effort was spent since to resolve the outer iteration acceleration. Except for the threading work, all of the changes discussed in this manuscript refer to changes made between version 10 and version 11. Performance comparisons are done to demonstrate the improvements from version 9 to version 12. As will be demonstrated, the updated versi

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Demonstrate new plasticity models for doped UO 2 that capture dislocation mechanisms

In light water reactors, fuel vendors are investigating the use of dopants to modify the properties of UO 2 pellets, with the goal of improving pellet-cladding mechanical interactions during operation. Dopants are expected to ‘soften’ the pellets; that is, the doped pellets have higher plastic deformation than conventional UO 2 . This leads to a reduction in the severity of mechanical pellet-cladding interactions, helping to reduce the hoop strain on the cladding. By minimizing the strain exerted by the pellet on the cladding, it is anticipated that cladding performance under accident conditions can be enhanced (i.e., lowering the risk of burst during a LOCA). Dopants such as chromium (Cr) promote grain growth during pellet fabrication, leading to larger grains; therefore, understanding the link between chemistry, microstructure and mechanical deformation (enhanced creep rates) behavior of UO 2 is critical to helping operators further substantiate the benefits of doping UO 2 . Historically, the nuclear energy industry has relied on empirical models to make assessments of performance. Compared to empirical models, mechanistic physics-based models provide benefits, such as, fewer data points for validation and better extrapolation where experimental data is scarce or non-existent. In this report, Bayesian inference techniques have been applied to a previously developed lower length-scale-informed diffusional creep model. The objective is to i) infer lower-length-scale parameter distributions from available experiment and then ii) determine the uncertainties in the measurable quantity (in this case creep rates) after propagating the inferred lower length scale parameter uncertainties. The approach requires many evaluations of the model, which becomes computationally insurmountable; therefore, a neural-network model is trained to data obtained by sampling the full model over the most important parameters. This neural-network is then used in the Bayesian inference approach to determine probability distributions in the parameter values that represent the uncertainty in the model given what is known from the experiments (posterior). A significant reduction compared to conservative initial (prior) uncertainties is achieved through inference against the experimental data, demonstrating the efficacy of this approach. Furthermore, by accounting for uncertainties in the experimental conditions and sample non-stoichiometry, it is possible to resolve apparent discrepancies in experimental measurements within a self-consistent grain boundary (Coble) creep model that is sensitive to chemistry. This work has been written up and submitted to Nuclear Technology for a special issue on accelerated fuel qualification (AFQ). This uncertainty quantification (UQ) work not only improves the diffusional model, while accounting for uncertainty, but also establishes a framework which can readily be applied to the mechanistic models of dislocation deformation developed in this study. The most likely values from the Bayesian analysis are incorporated into our UO 2 diffusional creep model and a lower length scale-informed irradiation UO 2 creep mechanistic model to generate a dataset. This dataset has been provided to our INL collaborators for training an artificial neural network surrogate model, which will be implemented in the BISON fuel performance code to assess how the results differ from those currently obtained using a fully empirical model and that of using the nominal (uncalibrated) atomic scale parameters in our mechanistic model. Plastic deformation (creep and glide) in UO 2 is a complex phenomenon, governed by multiple underlying processes such as local defect concentrations, applied stresses, and microstructural characteristics. Consequently, there is a need for a meso-scale model with polycrystalline resolution capable of extrapolating to large grain sizes applicable to doped UO 2 , where data is limited and the model can help bridge the knowledge gap. By integrating atomistic data into the polycrystal LApx code, it becomes possible to predict dislocation climb and glide plasticity that simple analytical models cannot accurately represent. The application of atomic-scale data within LApx demonstrated the importance of climb and glide mechanisms in reproducing high-stress UO 2 behavior. Behaviors such as this are crucial to capture and implement in BISON, as parts of the fuel pellet can reach temperatures where glide can occur before pellet cracking. This model which captures dislocation based mechanisms for UO 2 is then used to stand up the doped model accounting for larger grain sizes. It was found that larger grain sizes can lead to enhanced deformation rates in the glide regime, and therefore can help with the pellet cladding mechanical interaction. Therefore if the fuel pellet reaches conditions (stress/temperature) where glide is active, the enhanced creep rates for larger grains in the glide regime (doped UO 2 ) can help with pellet cladding mechanical interactions. Plastic deformation in UO 2 involves multiple mechanisms, including diffusional creep, dislocation climb, and glide. This milestone contains two parts: (1) UQ of a pre-existing lower length scale informed mechanistic diffusional creep model, and (2) development of a new LApx based model for dislocation-mediated creep mechanisms in UO 2 , with application to large-grain doped UO 2 .

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control Project: Characterization of 316L Stainless Steel after Solid Phase Processing using Ultrasonic NDE Method

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory undertook the Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control Laboratory Directed Research and Development Project to advance understanding of nuclear material processing and enable multifold acceleration in the development and qualification of new material systems produced via advanced manufacturing methods, such as solid phase processing, for use in national security and advanced energy applications (Smith 2021). A motivation of the Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control Project was to demonstrate ultrasonic testing as a nondestructive evaluation method to complement traditional destructive methods for characterizing material microstructure with emphasis on grain size determination using a method that may have future applications for real-time inline process monitoring. The objective of the work described in this report is to establish the process and an analysis method for measuring grain sizes of polycrystalline metals with ultrafine grains using ultrasonic shear wave backscattering, building on prior studies on coarser-grained material. The work involves five tasks: Measured ultrasonic backscattering experimentally for a series of 316L stainless steel specimens with various grain sizes made by friction stir processing. Calculated ultrasonic backscattering coefficients from experimental data based on a physical measurement model. Measured ground truth grain sizes of the specimens from electron backscatter diffraction grain boundary images using a generalization of the ASTM E112 (ASTM 2021) intercept method. Built a curve of ultrasonic backscattering coefficients versus the ground truth intercept-based grain sizes to determine the correlation between mean grain sizes and ultrasonic measurements. Demonstrated the ability of using the correlation curve to deduce grain sizes with measured ultrasonic backscattering coefficients for a few 316L stainless steel specimens whose grain sizes were unknown beforehand but were targeted to be an extrapolation to larger grain sizes than used to formulate the correlation curves. Experimental procedures and computational algorithms are developed and validated for these tasks. This work establishes an ultrasonic technique for characterizing material microstructure with ultrafine grains that are often resulted by solid-phase processing. The technique is nondestructive, and it has the potential to be used for real time inline process monitoring. This work successfully demonstrates the viability of an ultrasonic nondestructive evaluation method for microstructural characterization of material having ultrafine grain structure (as small as 1?mm) and produced by an advanced manufacturing method. This includes a demonstration of the method to extrapolate to other conditions. While not demonstrated here, the method is expected to be viable for in-line, or near-inline, process monitoring in advanced manufacturing applications with suitable consideration for access of instrumentation to the material being manufactured.

316 L Stainless Steel↗

DOE OSTI2026

PISCES two-detector covariance matrix fit for the NOvA Experiment

NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment with two functionally identical detectors: a Near Detector (ND) at Fermilab, placed 1 km from the neutrino source, and a Far Detector (FD) located 810 km away from the ND in Minnesota. NOvA's primary physics goals are the precise measurements of neutrino oscillation parameters $\theta_{23}$ and $\Delta m^2_{32}$ , determine the neutrino mass ordering, and constrain the value of $\delta_{CP}$, via the study of muon neutrino to electron neutrino oscillation. In the standard NOvA three-flavor analysis, oscillation parameters are extracted using an extrapolation technique in which the ND data constrain the FD prediction through a ratio method. While this allows for systematic uncertainties sharing the same effects in both detectors to cancel, it remains an FD-only fit and does not fully leverage the constraining power of the high-statistics ND. This analysis proposes a simultaneous ND+FD fit using the PISCES method. PISCES (Parameter Inference with Systematic Covariance and Exact Statistics) is a framework designed to support complex configurations such as a joint ND+FD fit. This allows PISCES to take full advantage of the ND data to directly constrain systematic uncertainties across all samples. In PISCES, systematic uncertainties are encoded in a fractional covariance matrix, and statistical uncertainties are handled with a Poisson likelihood, making the approach well suited for low-statistics samples. For interpretability, we further use a Newton–Raphson + PCA method to recover per-systematic pulls from the covariance formulation. This poster presents the full PISCES joint ND+FD fit for the NOvA three-flavor analysis, describes its implementation and evaluates its performance through extensive robustness tests and fake data studies. It also provides a comparison between the PISCES joint ND+FD results and the standard NOvA extrapolation method.

Rajaoalisoa, Miriama [Cincinnati U.] (ORCID:000000↗

DOE OSTI2025

Methods for Measuring and Computing the Reference Temperature in Newton’s Law of Cooling for External Flows

Newton’s law of cooling requires a reference temperature (𝑇 𝑟𝑒𝑓 ) to define the heat-transfer coefficient (ℎ). For external flows with multiple temperatures in the freestream, obtaining 𝑇 𝑟𝑒𝑓 is a challenge. One widely used method, referred to as the adiabatic-wall (AW) method, obtains 𝑇 𝑟𝑒𝑓 by requiring the surface of the solid exposed to convective heat transfer to be adiabatic. Another widely used method, referred to as the linear-extrapolation (LE) method, obtains 𝑇 𝑟𝑒𝑓 by measuring/computing the heat flux ($𝑞^{′′}_𝑠$) on the solid surface at two different surface temperatures (𝑇 𝑠 ) and then linearly extrapolating to $𝑞^{′′}_𝑠$ = 0. A third recently developed method, referred to as the state-space (SS) method, obtains 𝑇 𝑟𝑒𝑓 by probing the temperature space between the highest and lowest in the flow to account for the effects of 𝑇 𝑠 or $𝑞^{′′}_𝑠$ on 𝑇 𝑟𝑒𝑓 . This study examines the foundation and accuracy of these methods via a test problem involving film cooling of a flat plate where $𝑞^{′′}_𝑠$ switches signs on the plate’s surface. Results obtained show that only the SS method could guarantee a unique and physically meaningful 𝑇 𝑟𝑒𝑓 where 𝑇 𝑠 =𝑇 𝑟𝑒𝑓 on a nonadiabatic surface $𝑞^{′′}_𝑠$ = 0. The AW and LE methods both assume 𝑇 𝑟𝑒𝑓 to be independent of 𝑇 𝑠 , which the SS method shows to be incorrect. Though this study also showed the adiabatic-wall temperature, 𝑇 𝐴𝑊 , to be a good approximation of 𝑇 𝑟𝑒𝑓 (<10% relative error), huge errors can occur in ℎ about the solid surface where |𝑇 𝑠 −𝑇 𝐴𝑊 | is near zero because where 𝑇 𝑠 =𝑇 𝐴𝑊 , $𝑞^{′′}_𝑠$ ≠ 0.

Newton's law of cooling↗

DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate Constructed Scalable Circuits ADAPT-VQE in the Schwinger model

Inspired by recent advancements of simulating periodic systems on quantum computers, we develop a new approach, (SC)$^2$-ADAPT-VQE, to further advance the simulation of these systems. Our approach extends the scalable circuits ADAPT-VQE framework, which builds an ansatz from a pool of coordinate-invariant operators defined for arbitrarily large, though not arbitrarily small, volumes. Our method uses a classically tractable ``Surrogate Constructed'' method to remove irrelevant operators from the pool, reducing the minimum size for which the scalable circuits are defined. Bringing together the scalable circuits and the surrogate constructed approaches forms the core of the (SC)$^2$ methodology. Our approach allows for a wider set of classical computations, on small volumes, which can be used for a more robust extrapolation protocol. While developed in the context of lattice models, the surrogate construction portion is applicable to a wide variety of problems where information about the relative importance of operators in the pool is available. As an example, we use it to compute properties of the Schwinger model - quantum electrodynamics for a single, massive fermion in $1+1$ dimensions - and show that our method can be used to accurately extrapolate to the continuum limit.

Gustafson, Erik [RIACS, Mtn. View] (ORCID:00000001↗

DOE OSTI2025

Window observables for benchmarking parton distribution functions

Global analysis of collider and fixed-target experimental data and calculations from lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD) are used to gain complementary information on the structure of hadrons. We propose novel ``window observables'' that allow for higher precision cross-validation between the different approaches, a critical step for studies that wish to combine the datasets. Global analyses are limited by the kinematic regions accessible to experiment, particularly in a range of Bjorken-x, and lattice QCD calculations also have limitations requiring extrapolations to obtain the parton distributions. We provide two different ``window observables'' that can be defined within a region of x where extrapolations and interpolations in global analyses remain reliable and where lattice QCD results retain sensitivity and precision.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

FY25 status report on the addition of candidate materials in Class B Code Case

This report provides the time-dependent allowable stress calculation strategy leveraging the limited creep rupture tests data generated to support the allowable stress for 100,000 hours in American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC), Section II, Part D. A variable confidence index procedure to extrapolate material properties to support 500,000 hours design life is discussed. Time-dependent allowable stresses for Class B component design and analysis are presented for Grade 1 and Grade 2 of Alloy 625. The presented data extrapolation and allowable stress calculation method will support new material addition using limited creep rupture data in the new ASME Boiler and BPVC, Section III, Division 5, Class B rules.

Part D↗

DOE OSTI2026

Measurements of three-flavor neutrino oscillations from a PISCES two-detector fit to the NOvA Experiment data

NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment with two functionally identical detectors: a Near Detector (ND) at Fermilab, placed 1 km from the neutrino source, and a Far Detector (FD) located 810 km away from the ND in Minnesota. NOvA s primary physics goals are to measure the neutrino oscillation parameters $\theta_{23}$ and $\Delta m^2_{32}$ with high precision, determine the neutrino mass hierarchy, and constrain the value of $\delta_{CP}$, primarily via the study of muon neutrino to electron neutrino oscillation. Extracting values for oscillation parameters from fits to data usually relies on treating systematic uncertainties as nuisance parameters, a strategy that suffers from poor scalability as the number of uncertainties becomes larger. This work introduces PISCES (Parameter Inference with Systematic Covariance and Exact Statistics), a novel method that circumvents this scalability problem by encoding systematic uncertainties into a covariance matrix. PISCES utilizes a nested minimization in which optimal systematic pulls are first computed using the covariance matrix in an inner minimization step, then the oscillation parameters are profiled over in the outer minimization. PISCES also uses a Poisson Likelihood term, making it ideal for the inclusion of low-statistic samples in the fits. PISCES is a flexible framework that also supports complex fits, such as a joint Near and Far detector fit. In the standard NOvA analysis, oscillation parameters are extracted using an extrapolation technique in which the ND data indirectly constrain the FD prediction via a ratio method. PISCES, on the other hand, enables a simultaneous ND+FD fit, allowing the high-statistics ND data to directly constrain systematic uncertainties across all samples. This thesis presents the full PISCES joint ND+FD fit for the NOvA three-flavor analysis, details its implementation, and evaluates its performance through extensive robustness tests and fake data studies. It also provides a comparison between the PISCES joint ND+FD results and the standard NOvA extrapolation method using the full NOvA 10-year data set. The results demonstrate that PISCES can successfully fit NOvA data while incorporating the constraints from the ND detectors consistently, using physically motivated systematic uncertainties to account for data/MC discrepancies.

Rajaoalisoa, Miriama [Cincinnati U.]↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic Scaling Analysis of Accelerated Irradiation Testing on Additive Manufacturing Materials by Positron Annihilation

The timely applications of Additive Manufacturing (AM) materials in nuclear environments require accelerated irradiation tests, mainly ion irradiation to enable rapid prototyping. Low dose ion irradiation would cause sub-nanostructure changes by generation of lattice defects, vacancies, vacancy clusters and voids and void swelling caused by cellular dislocations. Positron Annihilation Lifetime (PAL), a novel technology, sensitive towards sub-nanostructure morphology with high accuracy (about 10-7 vacancy per atom), supported by Transition Electron Microscope (TEM) would be applied to identify the type and total size of the defects. The subsequent PAL measurements and TEM surface studies would be followed by PAL analysis that includes sophisticated trapping model. The PAS results would become an input to dynamic scaling analysis (that predicts radiation effects from low dose studies for high dose effects), which incorporate mean-field theory model. The final effect is an in-depth understanding of the microstructure evolution of AM materials under ion irradiation which can be extrapolated to the studies of neutron irradiation, since ion-irradiation takes less time and do not cause the irradiation hazard. The working hypothesis is that PAL technology, that have excellent sensitivity to low-defect concentration would help to identify ion-induced material damage on the atomic and nano-scale level, which then could be extrapolated to understand the neutron damage better.

accelerated irradiation testing↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of Accelerated Stress Testing Data for Silicon Photovoltaics Using Tensor Decomposition Methods

In this work, we examine the use of high-order tensor decompositions to analyze degradation pathways emerging from accelerated stress testing of silicon photovoltaic (PV) modules. Matrix-based decompositions are powerful tools for studying two-dimensional data arrays and form the foundation of a host of classical data analysis techniques. Tensors are high-order extrapolations of matrices that are able to account for more parameter dimensions, and a variety of tensor decomposition methods have been developed that similarly seek to extend insights from matrix decompositions to higher dimensions. Applying and interpreting tensor decomposition methods to sequences of PV module image data, we seek to uncover and isolate different degradation modes occurring from accelerated stress testing procedures. Further, we consider the contributions of different modes to PV module performance degradations.

data analysis↗

DOE OSTI2026

Measuring the Stress Factors for Photovoltaic (PV) Backsheet Degradation

Back sheet failure has resulted in power loss and large-scale recall of photovoltaic modules, resulting in billions of dollars in lost revenue. The light exposure on the backside of a photovoltaic module comes primarily from reflected light which alters the distribution of natural sunlight. Because of this, modelling the backside exposure and duplicating the exposure is much more difficult than modeling the frontside exposure. This project aims to study how various back sheets and junction box materials degrade under different conditions and to develop Python code to help model and predict degradation. The stress factors for back-sheet degradation must be quantified to extrapolate accelerated stress tests to the field. Test samples were placed in the A3, A4, and A5 conditions, as defined in IEC 62788-7-2, to assess the temperature and humidity dependence of ultraviolet (UV) induced degradation. We are utilizing a custom chamber with exposure from 0.5 UV-suns to 5 UV-suns to understand the dependence of degradation on light intensity. A group of samples put in the A3 condition had glass filters with 50% UV cut-offs of 320 nm, 335 nm, and 360 nm to assess the wavelength dependence of UV degradation. All this data is necessary to assess the impact of non-standard UV light exposure. The material evaluation tests include gloss measurements, attenuated total internal reflectance Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (ATR-FTIR), UV-visible reflectance/transmittance utilizing a Cary Ci7000 spectrophotometer, and a nano-indenter for surface hardness and modulus measurements. Alongside the experimental work, there is a computational effort using raytracing and Python open-source tools in PVDeg , PVLib, and Bifacial_Radiance. This code will create specific exposure scenarios and enable the evaluation of chamber degradation relative to field degradation. Equation 1 is a strawman equation used to model degradation on the backside of a PV module. We will create simplified code, based on the results of ray-tracing calculations, which uses a view factor approach to provide fast calculations for the most common exposure scenarios.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Added value of site load measurements in probabilistic lifetime extension: a Lillgrund case study

Site-specific fatigue estimation is an essential part of wind turbine lifetime extension, with various methods depending on data availability. The present study compares probabilistic lifetime extension assessment results for rotor blades with and without load measurements. It also addresses two key questions in such assessments: the applicability of the Frandsen model for estimating waked turbulence under complex and mixed wake conditions and the extrapolation of mid-term data over longer time periods. The case study wind turbine is SWT-2.3-93, located at the edge of the Lillgrund wind farm, situated in the Øresund Strait between Denmark and Sweden. The turbine is extensively instrumented, with 5 years of data available from its supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system. Although the Frandsen turbulence estimates deviate in a different manner from measurements at below- and above-rated mean wind speeds, the model remains a conservative approach for fatigue load prediction and reliability. In the current case study, the site-specific assessment using strain gauge measurements yields a 33 % higher annual fatigue reliability index after 35 years compared to a scenario based on the Frandsen estimation combined with ambient environmental data and a generic aeroelastic model. The results also demonstrate that the sensitivity of fatigue reliability to load uncertainty is negligible when load measurements are used directly but relatively high when relying on the Frandsen model in combination with a generic aeroelastic model. Overall, the high variability of the lifetime extension in different scenarios of data availability and accuracy shows the importance and added value of high-quality measurements combined with wind-farm-level SCADA and a model updated in real time (digital twins).

17 WIND ENERGY↗