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DOE OSTI2024

Statistical Treatment of Convolutional Neural Network Superresolution of Inland Surface Wind for Subgrid-Scale Variability Quantification

Abstract Machine learning models have been employed to perform either physics-free data-driven or hybrid dynamical downscaling of climate data. Most of these implementations operate over relatively small downscaling factors because of the challenge of recovering fine-scale information from coarse data. This limits their compatibility with many global climate model outputs, often available between ∼50- and 100-km resolution, to scales of interest such as cloud resolving or urban scales. This study systematically examines the capability of a type of superresolving convolutional neural network (SR-CNNs) to downscale surface wind speed data over land from different coarse resolutions (25-, 48-, and 100-km resolution) to 3 km. For each downscaling factor, we consider three convolutional neural network (CNN) configurations that generate superresolved predictions of fine-scale wind speed, which take between one and three input fields: coarse wind speed, fine-scale topography, and diurnal cycle. In addition to fine-scale wind speeds, probability density function parameters are generated through which sample wind speeds can be generated, accounting for the intrinsic stochasticity of wind speed. For assessing generalization to new data, CNN models are tested on regions with different topography and climate that are unseen during training. The evaluation of superresolved predictions focuses on subgrid-scale variability and the recovery of extremes. Models with coarse wind and fine topography as inputs exhibit the best performance when compared with other model configurations, operating across the same downscaling factor. Our diurnal cycle encoding results in lower out-of-sample generalizability when compared with other input configurations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1991

Flow downstream of the heliospheric terminal shock - Magnetic field kinematics

A kinematic model of the interplanetary magnetic field in the heliosheath beyond the solar wind terminal shock is presented in order to evaluate the possible importance of MHD effects in that region of space. The need for this evaluation arises because the interplanetary magnetic field is compressed across the terminal shock and further amplified by the decreasing flow speed beyond the shock. Streamlines which approach the stagnation point before turning in the downstream direction lead to the strongest effects due to the extreme slowing of the solar wind and consequent compression of the embedded magnetic field. The magnetic volume force therefore cannot be neglected on streamlines that approach the heliopause in the upstream direction, where the volume containing them is a large fraction of the overall of the heliosheath in the upstream direction. The increase in the magnetic pressure may act to bring the upstream terminal shock significantly closer to the sun, potentially reconciling a conflict between models and observations.

Nerney, S.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Minimum-Cost Aircraft Descent Trajectories with a Constrained Altitude Profile

An analytical formula for solving the speed profile that accrues minimum cost during an aircraft descent with a constrained altitude profile is derived. The optimal speed profile first reaches a certain speed, called the minimum-cost speed, as quickly as possible using an appropriate extreme value of thrust. The speed profile then stays on the minimum-cost speed as long as possible, before switching to an extreme value of thrust for the rest of the descent. The formula is applied to an actual arrival route and its sensitivity to winds and airlines' business objectives is analyzed.

altitude restrictions↗

NASA NTRS1960

Preliminary Investigation of a Paraglider

A preliminary investigation of the aerodynamic and control characteristics of a flexible glider similar to a parachute in construction has been made at the Langley Research Center to evaluate its capabilities as a reentry glider. Preliminary weight estimates of the proposed vehicle indicate that such a structure can be made with extremely low wing loading. Maximum temperatures during the reentry maneuver might be held as low as about 1,500 F. The results of wind-tunnel and free-glide tests show that the glider when constructed of nonporous material performed extremely well at subsonic speeds and could be flown at angles of attack from about 200 to 900. At supersonic speeds the wing showed none of the unfavorable tendencies exhibited by conventional parachutes at these speeds, such as squidding and breathing. Several methods of packing and deploying the glider have been successfully demonstrated. The results of this study indicate that this flexible-lifting-surface concept may provide a lightweight controllable paraglider for manned space vehicles.

Rogallo, Francis M.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Extreme Meteorological Parameters During Space Shuttle Pad Exposure Periods

During the 113 missions of the Space Transportation System (STS), the Space Shuttle fleet has been exposed to the elements on the launch pad for a total of 4195 days. This paper provides a summary of the historical record of the meteorological extremes encountered by the Space Shuttle fleet during the pad exposure period. Parameters included are temperature, dew point, relative humidity, wind speed, sea level pressure and precipitation. All the data presented are archived by the Marshall Space Flight Center Environments Group, and were obtained from a combination of surface observations and meteorological towers at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida. Data are provided from the first launch of the STS in 1981 through the launch of STS-107 in 2003.

B. Glenn Overbey↗

NASA NTRS2021

Analysis of simultaneous aerosol and ocean glint retrieval using multi-angle observations

Since early 2000, NASA's Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument has been performing remote sensing retrievals of aerosol optical properties from the polar-orbiting Terra spacecraft. A noteworthy aspect of MISR observations over the ocean is that, for much of the Earth, some of the multi-angle views have contributions from solar reflection by the ocean surface (glint, or glitter), while others do not. Aerosol retrieval algorithms often discard these glint-influenced observations because they can overwhelm the signal and are difficult to predict without knowledge of the (wind-speed-driven) ocean surface roughness. However, theoretical studies have shown that multi-angle observations of a location at geometries with and without reflected sun glint can be a rich source of information, sufficient to support simultaneous retrieval of both the aerosol state and the wind speed at the ocean surface. We are in the early stages of creating such an algorithm. In this paper, we describe our assessment of the appropriate level of parameterization for simultaneous aerosol and ocean surface property retrievals using sun glint. For this purpose, we use generalized nonlinear retrieval analysis (GENRA), an information content assessment (ICA) technique employing Bayesian inference, and simulations from the Ahmad–Fraser iterative radiative transfer code. We find that four parameters are suitable: aerosol optical depth (τ), particle size distribution (expressed as the fine mode fraction f of small particles in a bimodal size distribution), surface wind speed (w), and relative humidity (r, to define the aerosol water content and complex refractive index). None of these parameters define ocean optical properties, as we found that the aerosol state could be retrieved with the nine MISR near-infrared views alone, where the ocean body is strongly absorbing in the open ocean. We also found that retrieval capability varies with observation geometry and that as τ increases so does the ability to determine aerosol intensive optical properties (r and f, while it decreases for w). Increases in w decrease the ability to determine the true value of that parameter but have minimal impact on retrieval of aerosol properties. We explored the benefit of excluding the two most extreme MISR view angles for which radiative transfer with the plane-parallel approximation is less certain, but we found no advantage in doing so. Finally, the impact of treating wind speed as a scalar parameter, rather than as a two-parameter directional wind, was tested. While the simpler scalar model does contribute to overall aerosol uncertainty, it is not sufficiently large to justify the addition of another dimension to parameter space. An algorithm designed upon these principles is in development. It will be used to perform an atmospheric correction with MISR for coincident ocean color (OC) observations by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, also on the NASA Terra spacecraft. Unlike MISR, MODIS is a single-view-angle instrument, but it has a more complete set of spectral channels ideal for determination of optical ocean properties. The atmospheric correction of MODIS OC data can therefore benefit from MISR aerosol retrievals. Furthermore, higher-spatial-resolution data from coincident MISR observations may also improve glint screening.

Kirk Knobelspiesse↗

NASA NTRS2017

NASA's Electric Sail Propulsion System Investigations over the Past Three Years

Personnel from NASA's MSFC have been investigating the feasibility of an advanced propulsion system known as the Electric Sail for future scientific missions of exploration. This team initially won a NASA Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) Phase I NASA Innovative Advanced Concept (NIAC) award and then a two year follow-on Phase II NIAC award. This paper documents the findings from this three year investigation. An Electric sail propulsion system is a propellant-less and extremely fast propulsion system that takes advantage of the ions that are present in the solar wind to provide very rapid transit speeds whether to deep space or to the inner solar system. Scientific spacecraft could arrive to Pluto in ~5 years, to the boundary of the solar system in ten to twelve years vs. thirty five plus years it took the Voyager spacecraft. The team's recent focused activities are: 1) Developing a Particle in Cell (PIC) numeric engineering model from the experimental data collected at MSFC's Solar Wind Facility on the interaction between simulated solar wind interaction with a charged bare wire that can be applied to a variety of missions, 2) The development of the necessary tether deployers/tethers to enable successful deployment of multiple, multi km length bare tethers, 3) Determining the different missions that can be captured from this revolutionary propulsion system 4) Conceptual designs of spacecraft to reach various destinations whether to the edge of the solar system, or as Heliophysics sentinels around the sun, or to trips to examine a multitude of asteroids These above activities, once demonstrated analytically, will require a technology demonstration mission (~2021 to 2023) to demonstrate that all systems work together seamlessly before a Heliophysics Electrostatic Rapid Transit System (HERTS) could be given the go-ahead. The proposed demonstration mission will require that a small spacecraft must first travel to cis-lunar space as the Electric Sail must be outside of Earth's Magnetic fields to produce thrust. The paper will outline what was done over the past three years from performing various plasma chamber tests to obtain data for the PIC model development, investigation of tether material trades, and conceptual designs of proposed spacecraft.

Wiegmann, Bruce M.↗

DOE OSTI2021

A surrogate-model-based approach for estimating the first and second-order moments of offshore wind power

Power curve, the functional relationship that governs the process of converting a set of weather variables experienced by a wind turbine into electric power, is widely used in the wind industry to estimate power output for planning and operational purposes. Existing methods for power curve estimation have three main limitations: (i) they mostly rely on wind speed as the sole input, thus ignoring the secondary, yet possibly significant effects of other environmental factors, (ii) they largely overlook the complex marine environment in which offshore turbines operate, potentially compromising their value in offshore wind energy applications, and (ii) they solely focus on the first-order properties of wind power, with little (or null) information about the variation around the mean behavior, which is important for ensuring reliable grid integration, asset health monitoring, and energy storage, among others. In light of that, this study investigates the impact of several wind-and wave-related factors on offshore wind power variability, with the ultimate goal of accurately predicting its first two moments. Further, our approach couples OpenFAST—a multi-physics wind turbine simulator—with Gaussian Process (GP) regression to reveal the underlying relationships governing offshore weather-to-power conversion. We first find that a multi-input power curve which captures the combined impact of wind speed, direction, and air density, can provide double-digit improvements, in terms of prediction accuracy, relative to univariate methods which rely on wind speed as the sole explanatory variable (e.g. the standard method of bins). Wave-related variables are found not important for predicting the average power output, but interestingly, appear to be extremely relevant in describing the fluctuation of the offshore power around its mean. Tested on real-world data collected at the New York/New Jersey bight, our proposed multi-input models demonstrate a high explanatory power in predicting the first two moments of offshore wind generation, testifying their potential value to the offshore wind industry.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

The influence of recent and future climate change on spring Arctic cyclones

In recent decades, the Arctic has experienced rapid atmospheric warming and sea ice loss, with an ice-free Arctic projected by the end of this century. Cyclones are synoptic weather events that transport heat and moisture into the Arctic, and have complex impacts on sea ice, and the local and global climate. However, the effect of a changing climate on Arctic cyclone behavior remains poorly understood. This study uses high resolution (4 km), regional modeling techniques and downscaled global climate reconstructions and projections to examine how recent and future climatic changes alter cyclone behavior. Results suggest that recent climate change has not yet had an appreciable effect on Arctic cyclone characteristics. However, future sea ice loss and increasing surface temperatures drive large increases in the near-surface temperature gradient, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and convection during cyclones. The future climate can alter cyclone trajectories and increase and prolong intensity with greatly augmented wind speeds, temperatures, and precipitation. Such changes in cyclone characteristics could exacerbate sea ice loss and Arctic warming through positive feedbacks. The increasing extreme nature of these weather events has implications for local ecosystems, communities, and socio-economic activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2022

The Influence of Recent and Future Climate Change on Spring Arctic Cyclones

Chelsea L Parker↗

DOE OSTI2023

Challenges resulting from urban density and climate change for the EU energy transition

Dense urban morphologies further amplify extreme climate events due to the urban heat island phenomenon, rendering cities more vulnerable to extreme climate events. Here we develop a modelling framework using multi-scale climate and energy system models to assess the compound impact of future climate variations and urban densification on renewable energy integration for 18 European cities. We observe a marked change in wind speed and temperature due to the aforementioned compound impact, resulting in a notable increase in both peak and annual energy demand. Therefore, an additional cost of 20–60% will be needed during the energy transition (without technology innovation in building) to guarantee climate resilience. Failure to consider extreme climate events will lower power supply reliability by up to 30%. Here, energy infrastructure in dense urban areas of southern Europe is more vulnerable to the compound impact, necessitating flexibility improvements at the design phase when improving renewable penetration levels.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1992

Constraints on the surface magnetic fields of hot stars with winds

The present study discusses several constraints on the surface magnetic fields of rotating stars with winds. It is shown that there are two allowed ranges for the strengths of surface radial magnetic fields, which are called the 'strong field' and 'weak field' ranges. Attention is given to rotating hot stars with winds and weaker surface magnetic fields. Constraints on rotation and magnetic fields are derived in relation to the extreme case when the equatorial rotation speed approaches the critical rotation. For the O-type main-sequence star 9 Sgr and the B supergiant star Zeta-1 Sco, the upper bound for a weak field is found to be of order 1 G, which is consistent with recent interpretations of radio observations. For a Wolf-Rayet star, with stellar parameters similar to those of CV Ser, it is found to be about 20 G, at faster rotation speeds. From the requirement of hydrostatic equilibrium in the interior, a condition is derived for a star to be an 'extreme magnetic rotator', which is similar to the Eddington limit for stars with radiative forces.

Maheswaran, Murugesapillai↗

NASA NTRS2007

CMEs and Low Density Events in the Solar Wind

From time to time the density of the Solar Wind falls below unity for a day or so. Despite studies of these events, their cause has not been established. In the solar wind there are frequent rarefactions but these are much shallower than the ones we are discussing here. In particular any role that CMEs might play in forming more extreme rarefactions is not clear . We discuss 9 cases of extreme events, leading to sub-alfvenic flow and well observed by Wind, which occurred between 1999 and 2002, and look for corresponding CME events in the LASCO cotalog. The catalog gives a fitted speed , good out to 20 Rs ,as well as a speed lower down in the corona, and this is used to distinguish between a CME and an ICME. We find one of the events ,which was simulated by Usmanov et al.,cannot be associated with an ICME. The other eight events can plausibly be associated with fast ICMEs, identified by the prescence of bi-streaming electrons also seen by Wind SWE, and by other phenomena The implications of these observations are discussed but do not seem to be conclusive as to the cause of the extreme rarefactions.

Ogilvie, K. W.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Aspects of clear air turbulence severity forecasting and detection

Factors influencing the accuracy of the forecasts of incidences of clear air turbulence (CAT) are discussed, along with techniques for improved verification. Descriptive ranking terms for the intensity of CAT events, ranging from light to extreme, are developed, and meteorological parameters used for predictions are reviewed, including jetstream core location, vertical and horizontal wind shears, stable layers, tropopause height, trough speed, 500-mb vorticity, surface fronts, pressure centers and cyclogenesis, and wind speeds near mountain ridges. Methods of remote detection of CAT, particularly by using radiometry sensitive to the IR water vapor band, are noted to have had some success in detecting actual CAT events and decreasing false alarms. Statistical aspects of CAT encounter severity are discussed, including the establishment of confidence intervals for thresholds of detection of CATs of varying intensities.

Ehernberger, L. J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis and Comparison of Surface Roughness Effects on Pressure Data from SLS Wind Tunnel Test

Unsteady flows are becoming a more characterized field of study as advancements in technology is allowing for more high-speed, time-resolved data acquisition. It is important to understand these flows as the shock-wave boundary-layer interactions and separation they are involved with can generate extreme loads caused by high pressure and temperature on the body of a flight vehicle. It is vital to characterize these loads, as they can impede upon the structural integrity of a high-speed system. A common instrument utilized today to characterize pressure distributions caused by unsteady flows are unsteady pressure transducers. Set flush with the surface of a flight vehicle or wind tunnel model, these transducers can provide a pressure distribution, capturing the frequency of unsteady loads that could impinge upon the test article. A couple negative aspects of this instrumentation is that they are expensive, have long lead times, and a pressure distribution can only be determined in one discrete location where the transducer is installed. An optical diagnostic known as unsteady pressure-sensitive paint (uPSP) can help to satisfy these deficiencies. This is a spray paint that can be applied to a surface of a model to provide a global pressure distribution across the whole painted region.2 A complete picture of the fluid dynamic pressures occurring on the surface of a test article can be analyzed, especially in locations where it may have been impossible to install a transducer. Pressure-sensitive paint is also less expensive than traditional pressure transducers, which are, on average, about $2,000 each including the cost of installation.3 Unsteady PSP will not replace unsteady pressure transducers, but the transducers can be used to validate the PSP response to the flow and measure frequencies higher than the frequency response of the paint. One issue that can arise using these tools simultaneously, is that the surface roughness of the uPSP can affect the pressure readings of the transducers. Applying the uPSP to the surface of the model is going to affect the flow in some way as the topography of the model is now different than if it was not painted. One study with steady PSP conducted by Amer, Obara, and Liu at NASA Langley concluded that the PSP surface roughness was minimally intrusive at different test conditions with various lift, drag, etc., however, it was noted that data from some pressure transducers had decreased, likely due to the uneven application of the PSP in the localized region of the transducers.9 Sugioka et. al. tested various formulations of uPSP to study surface roughness effects on a Common Research Model (CRM) in transonic flow. The influence of uPSP on the surface of the model, depending on how it was formulated, was noted to have the possibility of relocating the shock wave present in the flow. This study was conducted to examine and compare transducer data acquired in December 2017 of a 4% scale model of the Space Launch System (SLS) performed at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel (UPWT). One goal of the test was to demonstrate to the customer the potential of the uPSP system developed at NASA ARC. The effect of uPSP on transducer signals also became an interest in this experiment and is the reason for this data analysis. The results of this study were discussed with the SLS team to help them make decisions regarding the next test on an SLS model with the PSP and Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel teams.

pressure-sensitive paint↗

NASA NTRS1984

Magnetic reconnection and magnetic activity

A large-scale magnetic field extending through a highly conducting tenuous fluid may become distorted on a small scale as a consequence of slow small-scale shuffling of the magnetic lines of force at the boundaries of the tenuous fluid. Any slow wrapping and winding introduced at the boundaries is distributed along the field (at the Alfven speed). It is a curious and little-known fact that such wrapping and winding possesses no static equilibrium (except for a set of solutions of extreme symmetry). The result is neutral-point reconnection of the strains in the field, rapidly dissipating the wrapping and winding. It is suggested that this is the principal cause of the extreme heating that produces the active corona of the sun and other stars. The shuffling of the footpoints of the magnetic field in the photospheric turbulence introduces small-scale wrapping and twisting into the coronal loops. The work done by the turbulence in twisting the fields is dissipated within a matter 10-20 hours by neutral-point reconnection, introducing heat into the corona at a rate of about 10 Mergs/sq cm sec for photospheric turbulence of 0.5 km/sec. It is suggested that this is the basic cause of the X-ray corona.

Parker, E. N.↗

NASA NTRS1925

Model Tests on the Economy and Effectiveness of Helicopter Propellers

The average velocity of helicopter blades relative to the air is greater than that of airplane wings. The helicopter may turn out to be more economical than the airplane wing for extreme velocities of horizontal flight, the airplane then requiring a very great speed range.

PROPELLERS - HELICOPTER↗

NASA NTRS1972

Precipitation criteria guidelines for use in aerospace vehicle development

Guidelines are presented on probable precipitation extremes and characteristics, applicable for NASA space vehicles and associated equipment development. Information is provided on probability of rainfall rates, drop size, drop rate of fall, associated wind speeds with rainfall, snow loads, hail, laboratory test simulation, and rain erosion.

Daniels, G. E.↗