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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Short-term wind forecasting using statistical models with a fully observable wind flow

The utility of model output data from the Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale model is explored for very short-term forecasting (5-30 minutes horizon) of wind speed to be used in large scale simulations of an autonomous electric power grid. Using this synthetic data for the development and evaluation of short-term forecasting algorithms offer many unique advantages over observational data, such as the ability to observe the full wind flow field in the surrounding region. Several short-term forecasting algorithms are implemented and evaluated using the synthetic data at several different time horizons and for three different geographic locations. Comparison is made with observational data from one location. We find that short-term forecasts of the synthetic data considering wind flow from the surrounding region perform 26% better than persistence in terms of root mean square error at the 5-minute time horizon. This improvement is comparable to studies of observational data in the literature. These results provide motivation to use synthetic data for short term forecasting in grid simulations, and open the door to future algorithmic improvements.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Saharan Dust Transport Predictability Utilizing a Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) Model

Prediction of Saharan dust customarily requires complex aerosols models and observations. A previous study of the Miami, Florida dust record in conjunction to reanalysis data discovered a possible source of subseasonal predictability using a dust-transport-efficiency (DTE) index. Development of the Subseasonal Forecast Experiment (SubX) has expanded global forecast products; producing multi-model ensemble forecasts out to 45 days. Retrospective forecast data from the Community Climate System Model version 4.0 (CCSM4) is used in direct comparison to National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis to evaluate the CCSM4 subseasonal forecast and DTE index prediction skill of weekly dust variability. Successful prediction of weekly dust transport using the DTE index is variable year-to-year. The DTE most successfully predicts dust when there is high variability in the tropical winds, likely due to a fluctuating subtropical high, and is not dependent on the overall mean flow or total dust mass transported. The CCSM4 SubX retrospective forecast well represents North Atlantic meteorology out to week-3 in both mean flow and variability. Dust transport can be predicted using the DTE index and CCSM4 SubX retrospective forecasts at week-1 leads to the same success as contemporaneous NCEP reanalysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating Implementations of the Immersed Boundary Method in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

The terrain-following coordinate system used by many atmospheric models can cause numerical instabilities due to discretization errors as resolved terrain slopes increase and the grid becomes highly skewed. The immersed boundary (IB) method, which does not require the grid to conform to the terrain, has been shown to alleviate these errors, and has been used successfully for high-resolution atmospheric simulations over steep terrain, including vertical building surfaces. Since many previous applications of IB methods to atmospheric models have used very fine grid resolution (5 m or less), the present study seeks to evaluate IB method performance over a range of grid resolutions and aspect ratios. Two classes of IB algorithms, velocity reconstruction and shear stress reconstruction, are tested within the common framework of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Performance is evaluated in two test cases, one with flat terrain and the other with the topography of Askervein Hill, both under neutrally stratified conditions. WRF-IB results are compared to similarity theory, observations, and native WRF results. Despite sensitivity to the location at which the IB intersects the model grid, the velocity reconstruction IB method shows consistent performance when used with a hybrid RANS/LES surface scheme. The shear stress reconstruction IB method is not sensitive to the grid intersection, but is less consistent and near-surface velocity errors can occur at coarse resolutions. This study represents an initial investigation of IB method variability across grid resolutions in WRF. Future work will focus on improving IB method performance at intermediate to coarse resolutions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating wind profiles in a numerical weather prediction model with Doppler lidar

We use Doppler lidar wind profiles from six locations around the globe to evaluate the wind profile forecasts in the boundary layer generated by the operational global Integrated Forecast System (IFS) from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The six locations selected cover a variety of surfaces with different characteristics (rural, marine, mountainous urban, and coastal urban). We first validated the Doppler lidar observations at four locations by comparison with co-located radiosonde profiles to ensure that the Doppler lidar observations were of sufficient quality. The two observation types agree well, with the mean absolute error (MAE) in wind speed almost always less than 1 m s –1 . Large deviations in the wind direction were usually only seen for low wind speeds and are due to the wind direction uncertainty increasing rapidly as the wind speed tends to zero. Time–height composites of the wind evaluation with 1 h resolution were generated, and evaluation of the model winds showed that the IFS model performs best over marine and coastal locations, where the mean absolute wind vector error was usually less than 3 m s –1 at all heights within the boundary layer. Larger errors were seen in locations where the surface was more complex, especially in the wind direction. For example, in Granada, which is near a high mountain range, the IFS model failed to capture a commonly occurring mountain breeze, which is highly dependent on the sub-grid-size terrain features that are not resolved by the model. The uncertainty in the wind forecasts increased with forecast lead time, but no increase in the bias was seen. At one location, we conditionally performed the wind evaluation based on the presence or absence of a low-level jet diagnosed from the Doppler lidar observations. The model was able to reproduce the presence of the low-level jet, but the wind speed maximum was about 2 m s –1 lower than observed. This is attributed to the effective vertical resolution of the model being too coarse to create the strong gradients in wind speed observed. Our results show that Doppler lidar is a suitable instrument for evaluating the boundary layer wind profiles in atmospheric models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Forecasting influenza activity using machine-learned mobility map

Human mobility is a primary driver of infectious disease spread. However, existing data is limited in availability, coverage, granularity, and timeliness. Data-driven forecasts of disease dynamics are crucial for decision-making by health officials and private citizens alike. In this work, we focus on a machine-learned anonymized mobility map (hereon referred to as AMM) aggregated over hundreds of millions of smartphones and evaluate its utility in forecasting epidemics. We factor AMM into a metapopulation model to retrospectively forecast influenza in the USA and Australia. We show that the AMM model performs on-par with those based on commuter surveys, which are sparsely available and expensive. We also compare it with gravity and radiation based models of mobility, and find that the radiation model’s performance is quite similar to AMM and commuter flows. Additionally, we demonstrate our model’s ability to predict disease spread even across state boundaries. Our work contributes towards developing timely infectious disease forecasting at a global scale using human mobility datasets expanding their applications in the area of infectious disease epidemiology.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

PyDDA: A Pythonic Direct Data Assimilation Framework for Wind Retrievals

This software assimilates data from an arbitrary number of weather radars together with other spatial wind fields (eg numerical weather forecasting model data) in order to retrieve high resolution three dimensional wind fields. PyDDA uses NumPy and SciPy’s optimization techniques combined with the Python Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Radar Toolkit (Py-ART) in order to create wind fields using the 3D variational technique (3DVAR). PyDDA is hosted and distributed on GitHub at https://github.com/openradar/PyDDA. PyDDA has the potential to be used by the atmospheric science community to develop high resolution wind retrievals from radar networks. These retrievals can be used for the evaluation of numerical weather forecasting models and plume modelling. This paper shows how wind fields from 2 NEXt generation RADar (NEXRAD) WSR-88D radars and the High Resolution Rapid Refresh can be assimilated together using PyDDA to create a high resolution wind field inside Hurricane Florence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Flow Forecasting on New England’s Great River Hydro (Abstract)

Great River Hydro (GRH) operates 13 generating stations and 3 storage-only reservoirs along the Upper Connecticut River, draining 6,266 square miles. Managing the reservoirs requires coordination over a couple days. So far seasonal flow-forecast and medium range probabilistic flow forecast during high flow conditions are leading to satisfactory management. Great River Hydro is seeking technical assistance to evaluate potential improvements in inflow forecasting and scheduling accuracy, particularly during short- to medium- duration periods (1-10 days). Improved accuracy is anticipated to enhance the efficiency with which GRH utilizes water, improving GRH’s ability to hit the best priced hours throughout the system and enhancing revenues as a result.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Daily grass reference evapotranspiration with Meteosat Second Generation shortwave radiation and reference ET products

Here we assess the accuracy of estimating daily grass reference evapotranspiration (PM-ET o ) using daily shortwave radiation (R s ) and reference evapotranspiration (ET REF ) products provided by the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) geostationary satellite delivered by the Satellite Applications Facility on Land Surface Analysis (LSA-SAF) framework. The accuracy of using reanalysis ERA5 shortwave radiation data (R s ERA5 ) provided by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is also evaluated. The assessments were performed using observed weather variables at 37 weather stations distributed across continental Portugal, where climate conditions range from semi-arid to humid, and 12 weather stations located in Azores islands, characterized by humid, windy and often cloudy conditions. This study&#x27;s use of data from a variety of climate conditions contributed to a unique and innovative assessment of the usability of LSA-SAF and ERA5 products for ET o estimation. The first assessment focused on comparing LSA-SAF estimates of R s (R s LSA-SAF ) against ground stations (R s ground ). The results showed a good matching between the two R s data sets for continental Portugal but a tendency for R s LSA-SAF to under-estimate R s ground in the cloudy islands of Azores. ET o values computed using R s LSA-SAF data and observed temperature, humidity and wind speed (ET o LSA-SAF ) were then compared with PM-ET o estimates with ground-based data, which were used as benchmark; input data of temperature and humidity needed for PM-ET o were quality checked for surface aridity effects. It was observed that ET o LSA-SAF is strongly correlated with PM-ET o (R 2 > 0.97) for most locations in continental Portugal, with regression coefficient of a linear regression forced to the origin ranging between 0.95 and 1.05, mean root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.13 mm d –1 , and Nash and Sutcliff efficiency of modeling (EF) above 0.95. For most Azores locations, ET o LSA-SAF over-estimated PM-ET o . This is likely a consequence of the high spatio-temporal heterogeneity of weather conditions that occur in these oceanic islands together with the different footprints of satellite (averaged over the pixel) and station observations. Reanalysis ERA5 shortwave radiation data presented similar behavior to the LSA-SAF products, however with slightly lower accuracy. The daily LSA-SAF ET REF product (ET REF LSA-SAF ) was assessed and results have shown a good accuracy of this product, with acceptable RMSE and high EF values, for continental Portugal but a low accuracy for the Azores islands. A simplified bias correction approach was shown to improve both ET o derived from the LSA-SAF products, namely for Azores stations, which seem to be representative of smaller areas. The use of the FAO-PM temperature approach (PMT) was also assessed using the R s LSA-SAF and R s ERA5 data, which showed a superiority of the LSA-SAF product for ET o estimations (ET o PMT LSA-SAF ). No significant differences (p < 0.05) were observed in terms of the median value of the RMSE when adopting ET o PMT and ET REF LSA-SAF . Differently, results showed that using the R s LSA-SAF in the PMT approach (ET o PMT LSA-SAF ) produces significantly better RMSE results than ET o PMT and ET REF LSA-SAF . Overall, the performed assessment allows concluding that the use of R s LSA-SAF, and to a lesser extent the use of the R s ERA5 , highly improves the accuracy of computation of ET o when R s observations are not available, including when only temperature data are accessible. The use of the ET REF LSA-SAF product is a good alternative when observed weather data are not available.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Agora : Multicomponent simulation for cross-survey science

ABSTRACT Next-generation cosmological surveys will observe large portions of the sky, with significant overlap between them. Multi-wavelength observations will enable us to analyse the same large-scale structure from different angles using a variety of tracers and astrophysical effects. The complex interplay between these observables calls for a model that can accurately and coherently describe their collective behaviour, posing a challenge that can only be met through the use of simulations. In this work, a suite of simulated extragalactic skies is presented, including maps and/or catalogues of cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing, thermal and kinetic Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (tSZ/kSZ) effects, cosmic infrared background (CIB), radio sources, galaxy overdensity and galaxy weak lensing. Each of these probes is implemented in the lightcone using halo catalogues and/or particles from the Multidark-Planck2 ($\small {MDPL2}$) N-body simulation, and the modelling is calibrated using hydrodynamic simulations and publicly available data. The auto and cross-spectra of the individual probes, as well as the cross-spectra between the observables, are shown to be consistent with theoretical models and measurements from data. The simulation is shown to have a wide range of applications, including forecasting, pipeline testing, and evaluating astrophysical biases in cross-correlation measurements. It is further demonstrated that the simulation products produced in this work have sufficient accuracy to recover the input cosmology when subjected to a full cosmological analysis and are ready for application in real-world analyses for ongoing and future surveys. The simulation products presented in this work can be accessed at: https://yomori.github.io/agora/index.html.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Updated Visual Orbit of the Directly Imaged Exoplanet 51 Eridani b and Prospects for a Dynamical Mass Measurement with Gaia

We present a revision to the visual orbit of the young, directly imaged exoplanet 51 Eridani b using four years of observations with the Gemini Planet Imager. The relative astrometry is consistent with an eccentric (e=0.53{sub -0.13}{sup +0.09}) orbit at an intermediate inclination (i=136{sub -11}{sup +10} °), although circular orbits cannot be excluded due to the complex shape of the multidimensional posterior distribution. We find a semimajor axis of 11.1{sub -1.3}{sup +4.2} au and a period of 28.1{sub -4.9}{sup +17.2} yr, assuming a mass of 1.75 M{sub ⊙} for the host star. We find consistent values with a recent analysis of VLT/SPHERE data covering a similar baseline. We investigate the potential of using the absolute astrometry of the host star to obtain a dynamical mass constraint for the planet. The astrometric acceleration of 51 Eri derived from a comparison of the Hipparcos and Gaia catalogs was found to be inconsistent at the 2σ–3σ level with the predicted reflex motion induced by the orbiting planet. Potential sources of this inconsistency include a combination of random and systematic errors between the two astrometric catalogs and the signature of an additional companion within the system interior to current detection limits. We also explored the potential of using Gaia astrometry alone for a dynamical mass measurement of the planet by simulating Gaia measurements of the motion of the photocenter of the system over the course of the extended 8 yr mission. We find that such a measurement is only possible (>98% probability) given the most optimistic predictions for the Gaia scan astrometric uncertainties for bright stars and a high mass for the planet (≳3.6 M {sub Jup}).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effects of spatial resolution on WRF v3.8.1 simulated meteorology over the central Himalaya

The sensitive ecosystem of the central Himalayan (CH) region, which is experiencing enhanced stress from anthropogenic forcing, requires adequate atmospheric observations and an improved representation of the Himalaya in the models. However, the accuracy of atmospheric models remains limited in this region due to highly complex mountainous topography. This article delineates the effects of spatial resolution on the modeled meteorology and dynamics over the CH by utilizing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model extensively evaluated against the Ganges Valley Aerosol Experiment (GVAX) observations during the summer monsoon. The WRF simulation is performed over a domain (d01) encompassing northern India at 15 km x 15 km resolution and two nests (d02 at 5 km x 5 km and d03 at 1 km x 1 km) centered over the CH, with boundary conditions from the respective parent domains. WRF simulations reveal higher variability in meteorology, e.g., relative humidity (RH = 70.3%-96.1%) and wind speed (WS = 1.1-4.2m s(-1)), compared to the ERA-Interim reanalysis (RH D 80.0%-85.0%, WS D 1.2-2.3m s(-1)) over northern India owing to the higher resolution. WRF-simulated temporal evolution of meteorological variables is found to agree with balloon-borne measurements, with stronger correlations aloft (r = 0.44-0.92) than those in the lower troposphere (r = 0.18-0.48). The model overestimates temperature (warm bias by 2.8 degrees C) and underestimates RH (dry bias by 6.4 %) at the surface in d01. Model results show a significant improvement in d03 (P = 827.6 hPa, T = 19.8 degrees C, RH = 92.3 %), closer to the GVAX observations (P = 801.4 hPa, T = 19.5 degrees C, RH = 94.7 %). Interpolating the output from the coarser domains (d01, d02) to the altitude of the station reduces the biases in pressure and temperature; however, it suppresses the diurnal variations, highlighting the importance of well-resolved terrain (d03). Temporal variations in near-surface P, T, and RH are also reproduced by WRF in d03 to an extent (r>0:5). A sensitivity simulation incorporating the feedback from the nested domain demonstrates the improvement in simulated P, T, and RH over the CH. Our study shows that the WRF model setup at finer spatial resolution can significantly reduce the biases in simulated meteorology, and such an improved representation of the CH can be adopted through domain feedback into regional-scale simulations. Interestingly, WRF simulates a dominant easterly wind component at 1 km x 1 km resolution (d03), which is missing in the coarse simulations; however, the frequency of southeasterlies remains underestimated. The model simulation implementing a highresolution (3 s) topography input (SRTM) improved the prediction of wind directions; nevertheless, further improvements are required to better reproduce the observed local-scale dynamics over the CH.

Singh, Jaydeep↗
DOE OSTI2025

A process-based evaluation of biases in extratropical stratosphere–troposphere coupling in subseasonal forecast systems

Abstract. Two-way coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere is recognized as an important source of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability and can open windows of opportunity for improved forecasts. Model biases can, however, lead to a poor representation of such coupling processes; drifts in a model's circulation related to model biases, resolution, and parameterizations have the potential to feed back on the circulation and affect stratosphere–troposphere coupling. We introduce a set of diagnostics using readily available data that can be used to reveal these biases and then apply these diagnostics to 22 S2S forecast systems. In the Northern Hemisphere, nearly all S2S forecast systems underestimate the strength of the observed upward coupling from the troposphere to the stratosphere, downward coupling within the stratosphere, and the persistence of lower-stratospheric temperature anomalies. While downward coupling from the lower stratosphere to the near surface is well represented in the multi-model ensemble mean, there is substantial intermodel spread likely related to how well each model represents tropospheric stationary waves. In the Southern Hemisphere, the stratospheric vortex is oversensitive to upward-propagating wave flux in the forecast systems. Forecast systems generally overestimate the strength of downward coupling from the lower stratosphere to the troposphere, even as most underestimate the radiative persistence in the lower stratosphere. In both hemispheres, models with higher lids and a better representation of tropospheric quasi-stationary waves generally perform better at simulating these coupling processes.

Garfinkel, Chaim I. (ORCID:000000017258666X)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning methods for weather forecasting

SAND2025-14466O This repository contains code for developing, training, and evaluating machine learning models for weather and climate forecasting, including forecast skill assessment, feature importance analysis, and reproducible workflows for model comparison. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Holthuijzen, Maike [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA),↗
DOE OSTI2021

A data-driven operational model for traffic at the Dallas Fort Worth International Airport

Airports are on the front line of significant innovations, allowing the movement of more people and goods faster, cheaper, and with greater convenience. As air travel continues to grow, airports will face challenges in responding to increasing passenger vehicle traffic, which leads to lower operational efficiency, poor air quality, and security concerns. This paper evaluates methods for traffic demand forecasting combined with traffic microsimulation, which will allow airport operations staff to accurately predict traffic and congestion. Using two years of detailed data describing individual vehicle arrivals and departures, aircraft movements, and weather at Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) International Airport, we evaluate multiple prediction methods including the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) family of models, traditional machine learning models, and DeepAR, a modern recurrent neural network (RNN). We find that these algorithms are able to capture the diurnal trends in the surface traffic, and all do very well when predicting the next 30 minutes of demand. Longer forecast horizons are moderately effective, demonstrating the challenge of this problem and highlighting promising techniques as well as potential areas for improvement. Traffic demand is not the only factor that contributes to terminal congestion, because temporary changes to the road network, such as a lane closure, can make benign traffic demand highly congested. Combining a demand forecast with a traffic microsimulation framework provides a complete picture of traffic and its consequences. The result is an operational intelligence platform for exploring policy changes, as well as infrastructure expansion and disruption scenarios. To demonstrate the value of this approach, we present results from a case study at DFW Airport assessing the impact of a policy change for vehicle routing in high demand scenarios. This framework can assist airports like DFW as they tackle daily operational challenges, as well as explore the integration of emerging technology and expansion of their services into long term plans.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Considering the Variability of Soiling in Long-Term PV Performance Forecasting

This study presents the development of a methodology for evaluating the variability associated with soiling on long-term photovoltaic (PV) forecasting. Independent engineering firms typically build forecasts for large PV plants through the use of the PVsyst software, where monthly soiling losses are one of many inputs to the P50 model. Subsequently, long-term performance distributions are constructed through a Monte Carlo analysis that includes various factors, such as satellite irradiance modeling uncertainty, uncertainty in the PVsyst model, and long-term irradiance variability. Often the PVsyst model uncertainty is increased to account for sites with significant soiling concerns but no systematic method has been presented in the literature to specifically include soiling variability within long-term performance uncertainty. In this work soiling information from 16 sites in the U.S. Southwest are combined with 24 years of rainfall data to generate 24 years of energy production with soiling losses and then subsequently generate probability of exceedance values (e.g., P50, P90, P95…). The results show that the size of the 90% confidence interval (P5–P95) can increase from –0.7% to 10.1% when interannual soiling variability and soiling rate uncertainty is included.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting spring phenology in deciduous broadleaf forests: NEON phenology forecasting community challenge

Accurate models are important to predict how global climate change will continue to alter plant phenology and near-term ecological forecasts can be used to iteratively improve models and evaluate predictions that are made a priori. The Ecological Forecasting Initiative's National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) Forecasting Challenge, is an open challenge to the community to forecast daily greenness values, measured through digital images collected by the PhenoCam Network at NEON sites before the data are collected. For the first round of the challenge, which is presented here, we forecasted canopy greenness throughout the spring at eight deciduous broadleaf sites to investigate when, where, and for what model type phenology forecast skill is highest. A total of 192,536 predictions were submitted, representing eighteen models, including a persistence and a day of year mean null models. We found that overall forecast skill was highest when forecasting earlier in the greenup curve compared to the end, for shorter lead times, for sites that greened up earlier, and when submitting forecasts during times other than near budburst. The models based on day of year historical mean had the highest predictive skill across the challenge period. In this first round of the challenge, by synthesizing across forecasts, we started to elucidate what factors affect the predictive skill of near-term phenology forecasts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Considering the Variability of Soiling in Long-Term PV Performance Forecasting: Preprint

This study presents the development of a methodology for evaluating the variability associated with soiling on long-term PV forecasting. Independent engineering firms typically build P50 forecasts for large PV plants through the use of the PVsyst software, where monthly soiling losses are one of many inputs to the P50 model. Subsequently, long-term performance distributions, or Pvalues, are constructed through a Monte Carlo analysis that includes various factors such as: satellite irradiance modeling uncertainty, uncertainty in the PVsyst model, and long-term irradiance variability. Often the PVsyst model uncertainty is increased to account for sites with significant soiling concerns but no systematic method has been presented in the literature to specifically include soiling variability within Pvalues. In this work soiling information from 16 sites in the U.S. Southwest are combined with 20 years of rainfall data to generate 20 years of energy production with soiling losses and then subsequently generate Pvalues. The results show that the spread of Pvalues (P1-P99) can increase from 0-13% when interannual soiling variability is included.

interannual variability↗
DOE OSTI2020

Near-Real-Time Forecast of Satellite-Based Soil Moisture Using Long Short-Term Memory with an Adaptive Data Integration Kernel

Nowcasts, or near-real-time (NRT) forecasts, of soil moisture based on the Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) mission could provide substantial value for a range of applications including hazards monitoring and agricultural planning. To provide such a NRT forecast with high fidelity, we enhanced a time series deep learning architecture, long short-term memory (LSTM), with a novel data integration (DI) kernel to assimilate the most recent SMAP observations as soon as they become available. The kernel is adaptive in that it can accommodate irregular observational schedules. Testing over the CONUS, this NRT forecast product showcases predictions with unprecedented accuracy when evaluated against subsequent SMAP retrievals. It showed smaller error than NRT forecasts reported in the literature, especially at longer forecast latency. The comparative advantage was due to LSTM’s structural improvements, as well as its ability to utilize more input variables and more training data. The DI-LSTM was compared to the original LSTM model that runs without data integration, referred to as the projection model here. We found that the DI procedure removed the autocorrelated effects of forcing errors and errors due to processes not represented in the inputs, for example, irrigation and floodplain/lake inundation, as well as mismatches due to unseen forcing conditions. The effects of this purely data-driven DI kernel are discussed for the first time in the geosciences. Furthermore, this work presents an upper-bound estimate for the random component of the SMAP retrieval error.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗