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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Adding Tree Rings to North America's National Forest Inventories: An Essential Tool to Guide Drawdown of Atmospheric CO 2

Tree-ring time series provide long-term, annually resolved information on the growth of trees. When sampled in a systematic context, tree-ring data can be scaled to estimate the forest carbon capture and storage of landscapes, biomes, and—ultimately—the globe. A systematic effort to sample tree rings in national forest inventories would yield unprecedented temporal and spatial resolution of forest carbon dynamics and help resolve key scientific uncertainties, which we highlight in terms of evidence for forest greening (enhanced growth) versus browning (reduced growth, increased mortality). We describe jump-starting a tree-ring collection across the continent of North America, given the commitments of Canada, the United States, and Mexico to visit forest inventory plots, along with existing legacy collections. Failing to do so would be a missed opportunity to help chart an evidence-based path toward meeting national commitments to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions, urgently needed for climate stabilization and repair.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sustainable forest management for carbon, wood and biodiversity must consider natural disturbance regimes

Abstract Forests provide multiple benefits that include sequestering carbon, supporting biodiversity, and providing wood products. Managing temperate forests to achieve these benefits sustainably is challenging given the legacy of past human impacts, the complexity of forest development, and increasing but unpredictable disturbances. These intricacies prompted debate about the most effective management of temperate forests to achieve climate mitigation while sustaining forest productivity, regeneration, and diversity. Most research focused on management impacts under relatively stable environmental conditions, whereas forests are facing increasingly frequent and more severe climatic and biotic disturbances. Here, we used a regionally calibrated forest growth model to simulate the effects of forest management on carbon, biodiversity, and wood production under prevalent natural disturbances in the northeastern US. We developed scenarios combining forest management and disturbance regimes based on assumptions of species-specific tree regeneration and mortality rates. We compared passive management with no cutting that prioritizes maintaining existing forest trees with two common regional harvest practices: exploitative timber harvest that prioritizes short-term wood production and regenerative timber harvest that prioritizes regenerating biodiverse native forest tree seedlings. In the absence of natural disturbance, no cutting provides 41% higher forest carbon storage and 50% higher tree structural diversity after 100 years than exploitative or regenerative practices. The presence of drought, windstorm, pest, and disease disturbances altered these outcomes. Regenerative forest management provides 25% higher forest carbon storage and 26% higher tree structural diversity after 100 years than no cutting. Our results demonstrate that wood products and their carbon storage and fossil emission avoidance are important for determining the total climate benefits of forest management under natural disturbances. Our findings highlight that natural disturbance regimes should be considered when selecting management to promote multiple forest benefits, suggesting the need for tailored as opposed to one-size-fits-all policies to sustainably manage temperate forests worldwide.

Liu, Weier (ORCID:0000000265914239)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Canopy position influences the degree of light suppression of leaf respiration in abundant tree genera in the Amazon Forest

Leaf respiration in the dark (R dark ) and light (R day ) is poorly characterized in diverse tropical ecosystems, and little to no information exists on the degree of light suppression in common tree species within the Amazon basin, and their dependences upon plant functional traits and position within the canopy. We quantified R dark and apparent R day using the Kok method and measured key leaf traits in 26 tree individuals of different species distributed in three different canopy positions: canopy, lower canopy, and understory. To explore the relationships between the leaf traits we used the standardized major axis (SMA). We found that canopy trees had significantly higher rates of R dark and R day than trees in the understory. The difference between R dark and R day (the light suppression of respiration) was greatest in the understory (68 ± 9%, 95% CI) and lower canopy (49 ± 9%, 95% CI) when compared to the canopy (37 ± 10%, 95% CI). We also found that R day was significantly and strongly correlated with R dark (p < 0.001) for all the canopy positions. Also, leaf mass per area (LMA) and leaf Phosphorus concentration (P) had a significant relationship with R dark (p < 0.001; p = 0.003), respectively. In addition, a significant relationship was found for LMA in the canopy and lower canopy positions (p = 0.009; p = 0.048) while P was only significant in the canopy (p = 0.044). Finally, no significant relationship was found between R dark and nitrogen, sugars, and starch. Our results highlight the importance of including representation of the light suppression of leaf respiration in terrestrial biosphere models and also of accounting for vertical gradients within forest canopies and connections with functional traits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stand validation of lidar forest inventory modeling for a managed southern pine forest

We evaluated area-based approaches (ABAs) to light detection and ranging (lidar) predictions of plot- and stand-level forest attributes (tree count, height, basal area, volume, aboveground biomass, broadleaf/conifer, and diameter at breast height — “diameter”). ABA methods included post-stratification (PS), ordinary least squares (OLSs) regression, k nearest neighbors ( kNN), and random forest (RF). This study was conducted on the Savannah River Site in South Carolina, USA. Plot- and stand-level predictions were validated against fixed-radius 0.04 ha (0.1 acre) plots in 49 ≈2.0 ha (5 acre) stands. Our findings demonstrate that lidar can be incorporated operationally into forest inventory systems to provide stand-level inferences for a wide range of forest attributes. Volume predictions for specific diameter classes, however, often fared poorly (root mean squared error (RMSE) > 100%) for the methods we explored, especially for larger (less common) diameter trees. Stand-level results were consistently better than pixel-level results (10–200+ percentage points). kNN and RF performed similarly and better than OLS and PS, but RF was the most robust to model configurations, while kNN has practical advantages such as simultaneous predictions of many attributes.

Forestry↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling freight mode choice using machine learning classifiers: a comparative study using Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) data

This study explores the usefulness of machine learning classifiers for modeling freight mode choice. We investigate eight commonly used machine learning classifiers, namely Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machine, Artificial Neural Network, K-Nearest Neighbors, Classification and Regression Tree, Random Forest, Boosting and Bagging, along with the classical Multinomial Logit model. US 2012 Commodity Flow Survey data are used as the primary data source; we augment it with spatial attributes from secondary data sources. The performance of the classifiers is compared based on prediction accuracy results. The current research also examines the role of sample size and training-testing data split ratios on the predictive ability of the various approaches. In addition, the importance of variables is estimated to determine how the variables influence freight mode choice. The results show that the tree-based ensemble classifiers perform the best. Specifically, Random Forest produces the most accurate predictions, closely followed by Boosting and Bagging. With regard to variable importance, shipment characteristics, such as shipment distance, industry classification of the shipper and shipment size, are the most significant factors for freight mode choice decisions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone development classification utilizing machine learning and synoptic composites

This study evaluates the ability of machine learning algorithms to classify tropical depressions (TDs) and tropical storms (TSs) in the western region of the southwest Pacific Ocean (SWPO). Decision rules are generated to predict the environment required for a depression to fully develop into a mature storm, and the most influential predictors in the classification decision are ranked. TD and TS are discriminated based on a maximum sustained wind speed threshold (≥17 ms -1 ). Various aerosol, thermodynamic, and dynamic parameters are extracted closest to the initiation point of each non-developing and developing sample. The covariates associated with each labelled sample are used to train a decision tree and random forest model. Results using a testing dataset suggest the random forest approach more accurately distinguishes between non-developing and developing samples. The classification accuracy of the decision tree and random forest are 72% and 91%, respectively. Random forest outperformed the decision tree by providing higher accuracy in test data. The most important variables for binary classification are sea salt aerosol optical depth (AOD), 1,000 mb relative humidity, and sea surface temperature. AOD is a quantitative estimate of the aerosols presents in the air through the extinction of a ray of light as it passes through the atmosphere. Mean composite maps constructed in an unsupervised manner have been created for the most important variables identified by the random forest classifier during TD and TS events to highlight the difference in geophysical and aerosol variables' climatology during the two different classifications. This work will advance the risk management strategies for northeastern Australia and other SWPO basin islands to control their tropical cyclone related losses through prioritizing forecasting variables that are the strongest predictors of the strengthening of tropical depressions into tropical cyclones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimizing Classifiers for Radionuclide Identification

Identifying threat nuclear materials is a critical for the prevention of acts of nuclear terrorism on the homeland. For this purpose, many radionuclide identification devices are deployed in the field. However, these will not necessarily be in the hands of non-experts, therefore these devices need to provide ready-made answers for the personnel in the field. This is where advanced algorithms are employed to both interpret the data and provide the identification of the nuclear material being interrogated. We took a machine learning approach to identification, by using training and validation data sets to create and optimize classifiers which determine which radionuclide is consistent with the data. The classifiers investigated were the Random Forest, Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine, and XG Boost and their performance was judged using the F1 Score for both hyperparameter tuning and comparison. In the end, we found out that the Random Forest Classifier worked the best based off the F1 Score they got which was 0.98.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2023

Metal hydride composition-derived parameters as machine learning features for material design and H 2 storage

Though hydrogen is a promising energy carrier for a green future, many challenges persist. One is the difficulty in engineering storage solutions, with metal hydrides being a leading contender among solid-state strategies. To facilitate efficient searching of candidate materials, ridge regression, simple decision trees, random forest ensembles, and gradient boosting ensembles were employed to predict the energy of formation, with the random forest ensemble resulting in the lowest test set error. First, two public databases, Materials Project and HydPark, were searched for metal hydrides. Feature engineering was performed before the models were developed, resulting in electronegativity, density, atomic density, d-character, f-character, band gap, hydrogen weight fraction, magnetization, temperature, and pressure being retained. The models were then benchmarked by the lowest test error before a random forest ensemble was used to populate entries missing energy of formation. Furthermore, all were then scored by hydrogen storage capacity and energy of formation suitability. Readily available features including several derived from only the chemical formula which were found to be highly predictive. and so are promising for high-throughput screening of arbitrary novel hydride formulations and blends for thermodynamic feasibility.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Resilience of terrestrial and aquatic fauna to historical and future wildfire regimes in western North America

Wildfires in many western North American forests are becoming more frequent, larger, and severe, with changed seasonal patterns. In response, coniferous forest ecosystems will transition toward dominance by fire-adapted hardwoods, shrubs, meadows, and grasslands, which may benefit some faunal communities, but not others. We describe factors that limit and promote faunal resilience to shifting wildfire regimes for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. We highlight the potential value of interspersed nonforest patches to terrestrial wildlife. Similarly, we review watershed thresholds and factors that control the resilience of aquatic ecosystems to wildfire, mediated by thermal changes and chemical, debris, and sediment loadings. We present a 2-dimensional life history framework to describe temporal and spatial life history traits that species use to resist wildfire effects or to recover after wildfire disturbance at a metapopulation scale. The role of fire refuge is explored for metapopulations of species. In aquatic systems, recovery of assemblages postfire may be faster for smaller fires where unburned tributary basins or instream structures provide refuge from debris and sediment flows. We envision that more-frequent, lower-severity fires will favor opportunistic species and that less-frequent high-severity fires will favor better competitors. Along the spatial dimension, we hypothesize that fire regimes that are predictable and generate burned patches in close proximity to refuge will favor species that move to refuges and later recolonize, whereas fire regimes that tend to generate less-severely burned patches may favor species that shelter in place. Looking beyond the trees to forest fauna, we consider mitigation options to enhance resilience and buy time for species facing a no-analog future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A systems genetic analysis identifies putative mechanisms and candidate genes regulating vessel traits in poplar wood

Wood is the water conducting tissue of tree stems. Like most angiosperm trees, poplar wood contains water-conducting vessel elements whose functional properties affect water transport and growth rates, as well as susceptibility to embolism and hydraulic failure during water stress and drought. Here we used a unique hybrid poplar pedigree carrying genomically characterized chromosomal insertions and deletions to undertake a systems genomics analysis of vessel traits. We assayed gene expression in wood forming tissues from clonal replicates of genotypes covering dosage quantitative trait loci with insertions and deletions, genotypes with extreme vessel trait phenotypes, and control genotypes. A gene co-expression analysis was used to assign genes to modules, which were then used in integrative analyses to identify modules associated with traits, to identify putative molecular and cellular processes associated with each module, and finally to identify candidate genes using multiple criteria including dosage responsiveness. These analyses identified known processes associated with vessel traits including stress response, abscisic acid and cell wall biosynthesis, and in addition identified previously unexplored processes including cell cycle and protein ubiquitination. We discuss our findings relative to component processes contributing to vessel trait variation including signaling, cell cycle, cell expansion, and cell differentiation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tree crown damage and its effects on forest carbon cycling in a tropical forest

Abstract Crown damage can account for over 23% of canopy biomass turnover in tropical forests and is a strong predictor of tree mortality; yet, it is not typically represented in vegetation models. We incorporate crown damage into the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), to evaluate how lags between damage and tree recovery or death alter demographic rates and patterns of carbon turnover. We represent crown damage as a reduction in a tree's crown area and leaf and branch biomass, and allow associated variation in the ratio of aboveground to belowground plant tissue. We compare simulations with crown damage to simulations with equivalent instant increases in mortality and benchmark results against data from Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. In FATES, crown damage causes decreases in growth rates that match observations from BCI. Crown damage leads to increases in carbon starvation mortality in FATES, but only in configurations with high root respiration and decreases in carbon storage following damage. Crown damage also alters competitive dynamics, as plant functional types that can recover from crown damage outcompete those that cannot. This is a first exploration of the trade‐off between the additional complexity of the novel crown damage module and improved predictive capabilities. At BCI, a tropical forest that does not experience high levels of disturbance, both the crown damage simulations and simulations with equivalent increases in mortality does a reasonable job of capturing observations. The crown damage module provides functionality for exploring dynamics in forests with more extreme disturbances such as cyclones and for capturing the synergistic effects of disturbances that overlap in space and time.

Needham, Jessica F.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Classification of orthostatic intolerance through data analytics

Imbalance in the autonomic nervous system can lead to orthostatic intolerance manifested by dizziness, lightheadedness, and a sudden loss of consciousness (syncope); these are common conditions, but they are challenging to diagnose correctly. Uncertainties about the triggering mechanisms and the underlying pathophysiology have led to variations in their classification. This study uses machine learning to categorize patients with orthostatic intolerance. Here we use random forest classification trees to identify a small number of markers in blood pressure, and heart rate time-series data measured during head-up tilt to (a) distinguish patients with a single pathology and (b) examine data from patients with a mixed pathophysiology. Next, we use Kmeans to cluster the markers representing the time-series data. We apply the proposed method analyzing clinical data from 186 subjects identified as control or suffering from one of four conditions: postural orthostatic tachycardia (POTS), cardioinhibition, vasodepression, and mixed cardioinhibition and vasodepression. Classification results confirm the use of supervised machine learning. We were able to categorize more than 95% of patients with a single condition and were able to subgroup all patients with mixed cardioinhibitory and vasodepressor syncope. Clustering results confirm the disease groups and identify two distinct subgroups within the control and mixed groups. The proposed study demonstrates how to use machine learning to discover structure in blood pressure and heart rate time-series data. The methodology is used in classification of patients with orthostatic intolerance. Diagnosing orthostatic intolerance is challenging, and full characterization of the pathophysiological mechanisms remains a topic of ongoing research. This study provides a step toward leveraging machine learning to assist clinicians and researchers in addressing these challenges.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting solid state material platforms for quantum technologies

Semiconductor materials provide a compelling platform for quantum technologies (QT). However, identifying promising material hosts among the plethora of candidates is a major challenge. Therefore, we have developed a framework for the automated discovery of semiconductor platforms for QT using material informatics and machine learning methods. Different approaches were implemented to label data for training the supervised machine learning (ML) algorithms logistic regression, decision trees, random forests and gradient boosting. We find that an empirical approach relying exclusively on findings from the literature yields a clear separation between predicted suitable and unsuitable candidates. In contrast to expectations from the literature focusing on band gap and ionic character as important properties for QT compatibility, the ML methods highlight features related to symmetry and crystal structure, including bond length, orientation and radial distribution, as influential when predicting a material as suitable for QT.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

A comparison of machine learning methods to classify radioactive elements using prompt-gamma-ray neutron activation data

The detection of illicit radiological materials is critical to establishing a robust second line of defence in nuclear security. Neutron-capture prompt-gamma activation analysis (PGAA) can be used to detect multiple radioactive materials across the entire Periodic Table. However, long detection times and a high rate of false positives pose a significant hindrance in the deployment of PGAA-based systems to identify the presence of illicit substances in nuclear forensics. In the present work, six different machine-learning algorithms were developed to classify radioactive elements based on the PGAA energy spectra. The model performance was evaluated using standard classification metrics and trend curves with an emphasis on comparing the effectiveness of algorithms that are best suited for classifying imbalanced datasets. We analyse the classification performance based on Precision, Recall, F1-score, Specificity, Confusion matrix, ROC-AUC curves, and Geometric Mean Score (GMS) measures. The tree-based algorithms (Decision Trees, Random Forest and AdaBoost) have consistently outperformed Support Vector Machine and K-Nearest Neighbours. Based on the results presented, AdaBoost is the preferred classifier to analyse data containing PGAA spectral information due to the high recall and minimal false negatives reported in the minority class.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Detection of Diversion in a Realistic Heat Pipe Microreactor Using Supervised Machine Learning

Microreactors (MRs) pose new challenges for international safeguards. Here, their small size and mass reproducibility make them ideal for deployment in greater numbers and in remote locations, making the job of safeguards inspectors more challenging. Machine learning (ML) is currently being applied to many fields to augment human performance and increase automation; in particular, ML could be used to provide insight for international inspectors to help detect the diversion of nuclear fuel from MR cores. Four ML model types (k-nearest neighbors, decision tree, random forest, and histogram-based gradient boosted ensemble) were trained on integrated flux and critical control drum angle data generated with Serpent 2 for a realistic heat pipe MR design, achieving nearly 100% binary classification accuracy of nominal and diversion core configurations by the end of 1 full power year for three of the four model types. Regression model variants were also trained, using the same input data, for predicting the number of fuel pins diverted. Root-mean-square errors below 5% of the total number of fuel pins were achieved by the 1 full power year mark for all models.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

What drives the scatter of local star-forming galaxies in the BPT diagrams? A Machine Learning based analysis

ABSTRACT We investigate which physical properties are most predictive of the position of local star forming galaxies on the BPT diagrams, by means of different Machine Learning (ML) algorithms. Exploiting the large statistics from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), we define a framework in which the deviation of star-forming galaxies from their median sequence can be described in terms of the relative variations in a variety of observational parameters. We train artificial neural networks (ANN) and random forest (RF) trees to predict whether galaxies are offset above or below the sequence (via classification), and to estimate the exact magnitude of the offset itself (via regression). We find, with high significance, that parameters primarily associated to variations in the nitrogen-over-oxygen abundance ratio (N/O) are the most predictive for the [N ii]-BPT diagram, whereas properties related to star formation (like variations in SFR or EW(H α)) perform better in the [S ii]-BPT diagram. We interpret the former as a reflection of the N/O–O/H relationship for local galaxies, while the latter as primarily tracing the variation in the effective size of the S+ emitting region, which directly impacts the [S ii] emission lines. This analysis paves the way to assess to what extent the physics shaping local BPT diagrams is also responsible for the offsets seen in high redshift galaxies or, instead, whether a different framework or even different mechanisms need to be invoked.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the nature of apparent transient sources on the National Geographic Society–Palomar Observatory Sky Survey glass copy plates

Abstract We examine critically recent claims for the presence of above-atmosphere optical transients in publicly available digitized scans of Schmidt telescope photographic plate material derived from the National Geographic Society–Palomar Observatory Sky Survey. We employ the publicly available SuperCOSMOS Sky Survey catalogues to examine statistically the morphology of the sources. We develop a simple, objective, and automated image classification scheme based on a random forest decision tree classifier. We find that the putative transients are likely to be spurious artefacts of the photographic emulsion. We suggest a possible cause of the appearance of these images as resulting from the copying procedure employed to disseminate glass copy survey atlas sets in the era before large-scale digitization programmes.

Hambly, N. C. (ORCID:0000000299019064)↗