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NASA NTRS2019

Global Carbon Budget 2019

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (E(FF)) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (E(LUC)), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (S(OCEAN)) and terrestrial CO2 sink (S(LAND)) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B(IM)), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2009–2018), E(FF) was 9.5±0.5 GtC/yr, E(LUC) 1.5±0.7 GtC/yr, G(ATM) 4.9±0.02 GtC/yr (2.3±0.01 ppm/yr), S(OCEAN) 2.5±0.6 GtC/yr, and S(LAND) 3.2±0.6 GtC/yr, with a budget imbalance B(IM) of 0.4 GtC/yr indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in E(FF) was about 2.1 % and fossil emissions increased to 10.0±0.5 GtC/yr, reaching 10 GtC/yr for the first time in history, E(LUC) was 1.5±0.7 GtC/yr, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5±0.9 GtC/yr (42.5±3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2018, G(ATM) was 5.1±0.2 GtC/yr (2.4±0.1 ppm/yr), S(OCEAN) was 2.6±0.6 GtC/yr, and S(LAND) was 3.5±0.7 GtC/yr, with a B(IM) of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407.38±0.1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6–10 months indicate a reduced growth in E(FF) of +0.6 % (range of −0.2 % to 1.5 %) based on national emissions projections for China, the USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2018, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC/yr persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013).

global carbon budget 2019↗

NASA NTRS1979

Space reflector technology and its system implications

The technical feasibility of providing nearly continuous solar energy to a world-distributed set of conversion sites by means of a system of orbiting, large-area, low-areal-density reflecting structures is examined. Requisite mirror area to provide a chosen, year-averaged site intensity is shown. A modeled reflector structure, with suitable planarity and ability to meet operational torques and loads, is discussed. Typical spatial and temporal insolation profiles are presented. These determine the sizing of components and the output electric power from a baselined photovoltaic conversion system. Technical and economic challenges which, if met, would allow the system to provide a large fraction of future world energy needs at costs competitive to circa-1995 fossil and nuclear sources are discussed.

Billman, K. W.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Global Carbon Budget 2016

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere the global carbon budget is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1(sigma), reflecting the current capacity to characterize the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006-2015), EFF was 9.3+/-0.5 GtC/yr, ELUC 1.0+/-0.5 GtC/yr,GATM 4.5+/-0.1 GtC/yr, SOCEAN 2.6+/-0.5 GtC/yr, and SLAND 3.1+/-0.9 GtC/yr. For year 2015 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9+/-0.5 GtC/yr, showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8/yr that took place during 2006-2015.Also, for 2015, ELUC was 1.3+/-0.5 GtC/yr, GATM was 6.3+/-0.2 GtC/yr, SOCEAN was 3.0+/-0.5 GtC/yr, and SLAND was 1.9+/-0.9 GtC/yr. GATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006-2015), reflecting a smaller SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 399.4+/-0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in EFF with +0.2% (range of -1.0 to +1.8% ) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of EFF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink (SLAND) in response to El Nino conditions of 2015-2016. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach 565+/-55 GtC (2075+/-205 GtCO2) for 1870-2016, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set.

Quéré, Corinne Le↗

NASA NTRS2022

Global Carbon Budget 2022

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO 2 emissions (E FOS ) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (E LUC ), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO 2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (G ATM ) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO 2 sink (S OCEAN ) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO 2 sink (S LAND ) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B IM ), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, E FOS increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and E LUC was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr −1 , for a total anthropogenic CO 2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr −1 (40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO 2 ). Also, for 2021, G ATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr −1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr −1 ), S OCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr −1 , and S LAND was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr −1 , with a B IM of −0.6 GtC yr −1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in E FOS relative to 2021 of +1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %) globally and atmospheric CO 2 concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50 % above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr −1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO 2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO 2 flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).

Pierre Friedlingstein↗

NASA NTRS2004

Solid oxidized fuel cells seals leakage setup and testing

As the world s reserves of fossil fuels are depleted, the U.S. Government, as well as other countries and private industries, is researching solutions for obtaining power, answers that would be more efficient and environmentally friendly. For a long time engineers have been trying to obtain the benefits of clean electric power without heavy batteries or pollution-producing engines. While some of the inventions proved to be effective (i.e. solar panels or windmills) their applications are limited due to dependency on the energy source (i.e. sun or wind). Currently, as energy concerns increase, research is being carried out on the development of a Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC). The United States government is taking a proactive role in expanding the technology through the Solid State Energy Conversion Alliance (SECA) Program, which is coordinated by the Department of Energy. into an electrical energy. This occurs by the means of natural tendency of oxygen and hydrogen to chemically react. While controlling the process, it is possible to harvest the energy given off by the reaction. SOFCs use currently available fossil fuels and convert a variety of those fuels with very high efficiency (about 40% more efficient than modem thermal power plants). At the same time they are almost entirely nonpolluting and due to their size they can be placed in remote areas. The main fields where the application of the fuel cells appears to be the most useful for are stationary energy sources, transportation, and military applications. structure and materials must be resolved. All the components must be operational in harsh environments including temperatures reaching 800 C and cyclic thermal- mechanical loading. Under these conditions, the main concern is the requirement for hermetic seals to: (1) prevent mixing of the fuel and oxidant within the stack, (2) prevent parasitic leakage of the fuel from the stack, (3) prevent contamination of the anode by air leaking into the stack, (4) electrically isolate the individual cells within the stack, and (5) mechanically bond the cell components. The sealing challenges are aggravated by the need to maintain hermetic boundaries between the different flow paths within the fuel cell throughout cycled operation. Within the timeframe of my tenure, the main objective is to assist in building a state-of-art test facility.

Bastrzyk, Marta B.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Fluid circulating pump operated by same incident solar energy which heats energy collection fluid

The application of using a spacecraft solar powered pump terrestrially to reduce or eliminate the need for fossil fuel generated electricity for domestic solar hot water systems was investigated. A breadboard prototype model was constructed utilizing bimetals to convert thermal energy into mechanical motion by means of a toggle operated shutter mechanism. Although it did not meet expected thermal efficiency, the prototype model was sufficient to demonstrate the mechanical concept.

Collins, E. R.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Future trends in electrical energy generation economics in the United States

Developments related to the economics of coal-fired systems in the U.S. are mainly considered. The historical background of the U.S. electric generation industry is examined and the U.S. electrical generation characteristics in the year 1975 are considered. It is pointed out that coal-fired power plants are presently the largest source of electrical energy generation in the U.S. Questions concerning the availability and quality of coal are investigated. Currently there are plans for converting some 50 large oil and gas-fired generating plants to coal, and it is expected that coal will be the fuel used in almost all fossil-fired base load additions to generating capacity. Aspects of advanced energy conversion from coal are discussed, taking into account the performance and economic potential of the energy conversion systems.

Schmitt, R. W.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Relation of the lunar power system to the SEI program and to landers

The people of Earth will need more than 20,000 billion watts (GWe) of electric power by 2050 for a high level of prosperity. Power needs in the 22nd Century could exceed 100,000 GWe. By 2100 the total quantity of thermal energy used could fully deplete the known inventory (10(exp 7) GWt-Y) of all non-renewable sources on Earth except for deuterium and hydrogen for use in proposed fusion reactors. The labor, capital, and mass of power plants required to produce 1 GWe-Y of energy from present-day power plants is summarized. Fossil and nuclear plants respectively consume 80 to 190 M$ and 12 to 48 M$ of fuel per GWe-Y. The Lunar Power System (LPS) uses solar power bases on the moon to beam electric power to Earth. The LPS in the figure supplies load-following power to rectennas on Earth. Additional solar power conversion units are located across the lunar limb from their respective Earthward transmitting stations. LPS can be augmented by mirrors in polar orbit about the moon. The construction of rectennas on Earth determines the base cost (0.001s$/kWe-H) of LPS power. A manned International Lunar Base (ILB) can accelerate the development of LPS by providing the initial transportation and habitation facilities and base operations. ILB can greatly reduce up front costs and risks by emplacing a moderate scale LPS (1-100 GWe). LPS can accelerate the development of the ILB by providing greater funding than is reasonable to expect for purely scientific research. An international ILB/LPS program can foster world trust and prosperity.

Criswell, David R.↗

NASA NTRS1993

X-ray investigations of the hot ISM

At energies less than one keV, the intensity of the galactic x-ray background dominates that of the extragalactic background in almost every direction on the sky. Below 1/4 keV, the galactic x-ray background has a galactic stellar component, but the dominant emitter seems to be hot interstellar matter. The origin of the general 3/4 keV x-ray background remains uncertain, but one component must also be the contribution from hot interstellar matter. An overview is given of recent x-ray investigations of the hot interstellar medium using data from the ROSAT X-ray Telescope/Position-Sensitive Proportional Counter (XRT/PSPC) instrument. Several prominent features in the low energy x-ray background that are interpreted as fossil supernova remnants are discussed.

Sanders, W. T.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Process Developed for Fabricating Engineered Pore Structures for High- Fuel-Utilization Solid Oxide Fuel Cells

Solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) have tremendous commercial potential because of their high efficiency, high energy density, and flexible fuel capability (ability to use fossil fuels). The drive for high-power-utilizing, ultrathin electrolytes (less than 10 microns), has placed an increased demand on the anode to provide structural support, yet allow sufficient fuel entry for sustained power generation. Concentration polarization, a condition where the fuel demand exceeds the supply, is evident in all commercial-based anode-supported cells, and it presents a significant roadblock to SOFC commercialization.

Sofie, Stephen W.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Thermal energy storage heat exchanger: Molten salt heat exchanger design for utility power plants

The use of thermal energy storage (TES) in the latent heat of molten salts as a means of conserving fossil fuels and lowering the cost of electric power was evaluated. Public utility systems provided electric power on demand. This demand is generally maximum during late weekday afternoons, with considerably lower overnight and weekend loads. Typically, the average demand is only 60% to 80% of peak load. As peak load increases, the present practice is to purchase power from other grid facilities or to bring older less efficient fossil-fuel plants on line which increase the cost of electric power. The widespread use of oil-fired boilers, gas turbine and diesel equipment to meet peaking loads depletes our oil-based energy resources. Heat exchangers utilizing molten salts can be used to level the energy consumption curve. The study begins with a demand analysis and the consideration of several existing modern fossil-fuel and nuclear power plants for use as models. Salts are evaluated for thermodynamic, economic, corrosive, and safety characteristics. Heat exchanger concepts are explored and heat exchanger designs are conceived. Finally, the economics of TES conversions in existing plants and new construction is analyzed. The study concluded that TES is feasible in electric power generation. Substantial data are presented for TES design, and reference material for further investigation of techniques is included.

Ferarra, A.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Public policy for solar heating and cooling

Recent analyses indicated that solar heating and cooling systems for residential buildings are nearly economically competitive with conventional fossil fuel or electric systems, the former having higher initial cost but a lower operating cost than the latter. The paper examines obstacles to the widespread acceptance and use of solar space conditioning systems and explores some general policies which could help to overcome them. The discussion covers such institutional barriers limiting the adoption of solar technologies as existing building codes, financing constraints, and organizational structure of the building industry. The potential impact of financial incentives is analyzed. It is noted that a tax incentive of 25% could speed the use of solar energy by 7 to 8 years and produce an 8% reduction in fossil fuel use by 1990. A preliminary incentive package which could be helpful in promoting solar energy both at federal and state levels is proposed, and the necessary incentive level is analysed.

Hirshberg, A. S.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Assessment of industrial applications for fuel cell cogeneration systems

The fuel cell energy systems are designed with and without a utility connection for emergency back-up power. Sale of electricity to the utility during periods of low plant demand is not considered. For each of the three industrial applications, conceptual designs were also developed for conventional utility systems relying on purchased electric power and fossil-fired boilers for steam/hot water. The capital investment for each energy system is estimated. Annual operating costs are also determined for each system. These cost estimates are converted to levelized annual costs by applying appropriate economic factors. The breakeven electricity price that would make fuel cell systems competitive with the conventional systems is plotted as a function of naphtha price. The sensitivity of the breakeven point to capital investment and coal price is also evaluated.

Stickles, R. P.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Study of Systems and Technology for Liquid Hydrogen Production Independent of Fossil Fuels

Based on Kennedy Space Center siting and logistics requirements and the nonfossil energy resources at the Center, a number of applicable technologies and system candidates for hydrogen production were identified and characterized. A two stage screening of these technologies in the light of specific criteria identified two leading candidates as nonfossil system approaches. Conceptual design and costing of two solar-operated, stand alone systems, one photovoltaic based on and the other involving the power tower approach reveals their technical feasibility as sited as KSC, and the potential for product cost competitiveness with conventional supply approaches in the 1990 to 1210 time period. Conventional water hydrolysis and hydrogen liquefaction subsystems are integrated with the solar subsystems.

Sprafka, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Satellite mirror systems for providing terrestrial power - System concept

A system of orbiting reflectors, SOLARES, has been studied as a possible means of providing terrestrial power with a space system of minimum mass and complexity. The key impact that such a system, providing continuous and slightly concentrated insolation, makes on the economic viability of solar farming is demonstrated. New developments in solar sailing are incorporated to reduce mirror mass and transportation cost. The system is compatible with incremental implementation and continual expansion to produce the world's power needs. Key technology, environmental, and economic issues and payoffs are identified. SOLARES appears to be economically superior to other advanced, and even conventional, energy systems and could be scaled to completely abate our fossil fuel usage for power generation.

Billman, K. W.↗

NASA NTRS1978

SOLARES - A new hope for solar energy

A system of orbiting reflectors, SOLARES, has been studied as a possible means of reducing the diurnal variation and enhancing the average intensity of sunlight with a space system of minimum mass and complexity. The key impact that such a system makes on the economic viability of solar farming and other solar applications is demonstrated. The system is compatible with incremental implementation and continual expansion to meet the world's power needs. Key technology, environmental, and economic issues and payoffs are identified. SOLARES appears to be economically superior to other advanced, and even competitive with conventional, energy systems and could be scaled to completely abate our fossil fuel usage for power generation. Development of the terrestrial solar conversion technique, optimized for this new artificial source of solar radiation, yet remains.

Billman, K. W.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Pulsar disk systems

It is proposed that radio pulsars have the same basic physical features as X-ray pulsars. Specifically, it is suggested that active radio pulsars are rotating neutron stars surrounded by fossil disks left over from the collapse event and that energy is extracted from the rotation of the neutron star by interaction with the disk to produce pulsar luminosity. Attention is given to a model in which the neutron star acts as a unipolar generator (or Faraday disk dynamo) and the disk acts as a load. The self-excitation of the disk/pulsar system is considered along with aspects of disk persistence, pulsed emission, and magnetically field aligned currents to the disk. An investigation is conducted regarding the possibility of a deposition of material in the form of a disk about a pulsar, taking into account questions concerning disk survival. It is found that there are some promising features regarding a disk system.

Michel, F. C.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Benthic Marine Cyanobacterial Mat Ecosystems: Biogeochemistry and Biomarkers

Cyanobacterial mats are complete ecosystems that can include processes of primary production, diagenesis and lithification. Light sustains oxygenic photosynthesis, which in turn provides energy, organic matter and oxygen to the community. Due to both absorption and scattering phenomena, incident light is transformed with depth in the mat, both in intensity and spectral composition. Mobile photo synthesizers optimize their position with respect to this light gradient. When photosynthesis ceases at night, the upper layers of the mat become reduced and sulfidic. Counteracting gradients of oxygen and sulfide combine to provide daily-contrasting environments separated on a scale of a few mm. The functional complexity of mats, coupled with the highly proximal and ordered spatial arrangement of biota, offers the potential for a staggering number of interactions. At a minimum, the products of each functional group of microorganisms affect the other groups both positively and negatively. For example, cyanobacteria generate organic matter (potential substrates) but also oxygen (a toxin for many anaerobes). Anaerobic activity recycles nutrients to the photosynthesizers but also generates potentially toxic sulfide. The combination of benefits and hazards of light, oxygen and sulfide promotes the allocation of the various essential mat processes between light and dark periods, and to various depths in the mat. Observations of mats have produced numerous surprises. For example, obligately anaerobic processes can occur in the presence of abundant oxygen, highly reduced gases are produced in the presence of abundant sulfate, meiofauna thrive at high sulfide concentrations, and the mats' constituent populations respond to environmental changes in complex ways. While photosynthetic bacteria dominate the biomass and productivity of the mat, nonphotosynthetic, anaerobic processes constitute the ultimate biological filter on the ecosystem's emergent biosignatures, including those sedimentary textures, organic compounds, and minerals that enter the fossil record. The ability of cyanobacterial mats to channel abundant solar energy into the creation and maintenance of complex structures and processes has created a multitude of consequences, both for sedimentation and for the early evolution of our biosphere.

DesMarais, David J.↗