Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “future trends”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Changes in Climate and Its Effect on Timing of Snowmelt and Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves

Snow is a critical water resource for much of the U.S. and failure to account for changes in climate could deleteriously impact military assets. In this study, we produced historical and future snow trends through modeling at three military sites (in Washington, Colorado, and North Dakota) and the Western U.S. For selected rivers, we performed seasonal trend analysis of discharge extremes. We calculated flood frequency curves and estimated the probability of occurrence of future annual maximum daily rainfall depths. Additionally, we generated intensity-duration-frequency curves (IDF) to find rainfall intensities at several return levels. Generally, our results showed a decreasing trend in historical and future snow duration, rain-on-snow events, and snowmelt runoff. This decreasing trend in snowpack could reduce water resources. A statistically significant increase in maximum streamflow for most rivers at the Washington and North Dakota sites occurred for several months of the year. In Colorado, only a few months indicated such an increase. Future IDF curves for Colorado and North Dakota indicated a slight increase in rainfall intensity whereas the Washington site had about a twofold increase. This increase in rainfall intensity could result in major flood events, demonstrating the importance of accounting for climate changes in infrastructure planning.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydropower Investment and Public-Private Ecosystem Assessment

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO) commissioned this Report to evaluate the primary challenges in raising investment in medium-sized hydropower and PSH, defined as projects with five (5) to 30 megawatts (MW) of installed capacity, and to understand potential opportunities to increase mobilization of private sector investment in hydropower and PSH projects in the future. Based on stakeholder interviews, a market survey, and industry reports, this Report considers the investment and development trends and future opportunities for five hydropower project types: capacity additions, conduits, PSH (both open and closed loop), non-powered dams (NPDs), and new stream-reach development (NSD).

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Technological diffusion trends suggest a more equitable future for rooftop solar in the United States

Abstract Equity has become central in the academic and regulatory discourse shaping the future of residential-scale clean energy technologies in the United States, particularly rooftop solar. Here, we develop a holistic perspective on these issues by analyzing rooftop solar adoption trends using two alternative forecasting methods: an inside-view forecast based on historical solar adoption data, and an outside-view forecast based on adoption data for other emerging consumer technologies. We show how rooftop solar, like other emerging consumer technologies, has become more equitably adopted over time. We show that solar diffusion patterns are largely consistent with those of other technologies. Both forecasting methods suggest that clean energy technologies should be expected to become more equitably adopted over time. Policy could accelerate this process by supporting low-income adoption without unduly curbing overall diffusion.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Comprehensive Approach to Measure the Efficiency of Freight Transport: Freight Mobility Energy Productivity (F-MEP) Metric

Freight travel accounts for a major share of the energy consumed in the transportation sector in any country, and the United States is no exception. Understanding and modeling freight movement is critical, particularly in the context of capturing the impact of emerging technologies on freight travel and its externalities. The domain of freight modeling and forecasting is gaining pace in the recent years, but advancement in comprehensive freight performance metrics is still lagging. Conventional freight performance metrics such as truck-miles, ton-miles, or value-miles are unidimensional and aggregated in nature, making them unsuitable to accurately capture the impact of emerging transportation trends on the performance of freight systems. Addressing this research need, this paper presents the 'Freight Mobility Energy Productivity' metric to quantify freight performance of current as well as future freight systems, accounting for various costs associated with freight transport. The proposed metric was implemented using data from the Freight Analysis Framework along with other published sources, which shows intuitive results in quantifying freight performance. Further, a scenario analysis exercise was conducted to test the capability of the metric in tracking improvements in system-level freight efficiency as a result of vehicle powertrain technology improvement. Results of the scenario analysis reinforce confidence that the proposed metric can be used as a decision support tool in assessing the efficiency of existing as well as future freight trends and technologies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comprehensive Approach to Measure the Mobility Energy Productivity of Freight Transport

Freight travel accounts for a major share of the energy consumed in the transportation sector in any country, and the United States is no exception. Understanding and modeling freight movement are critical, particularly in the context of capturing the impact of emerging technologies on freight travel and its externalities. The domain of freight modeling and forecasting has been gaining pace in recent years, but advancement in comprehensive freight performance metrics is still lagging. Conventional freight performance metrics such as truck-miles, ton-miles, or value-miles are unidimensional and aggregate in nature, making them unsuitable to accurately capture the impact of emerging transportation trends on the performance or productivity of freight systems. Addressing the research need, this paper presents the “Freight Mobility Energy Productivity” metric to quantify freight productivity of current as well as future freight systems, accounting for various costs associated with freight transport. The proposed metric was implemented using data from the Freight Analysis Framework along with other published sources, and shows intuitive results in quantifying freight productivity. Further, a scenario analysis exercise was conducted to test the capability of the metric in tracking improvements in system-level freight productivity as a result of vehicle electrification. The relative differences in Freight Mobility Energy Productivity scores help identify which zones benefit from the vehicle powertrain technology improvement. The results of the scenario analysis reinforce confidence that the proposed metric can be used as a decision support tool in assessing the productivity of existing as well as future freight trends and technologies.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Comprehensive Approach to Measure the Mobility Energy Productivity of Freight Transport: Preprint

Freight travel accounts for a major share of the energy consumed in the transportation sector in any country, and the United States is no exception. Understanding and modeling freight movement are critical, particularly in the context of capturing the impact of emerging technologies on freight travel and its externalities. The domain of freight modeling and forecasting is gaining pace in the recent years, but advancement in comprehensive freight performance metrics is still lagging. Conventional freight performance metrics such as truck-miles, ton-miles, or value-miles are unidimensional and aggregate in nature, making them unsuitable to accurately capture the impact of emerging transportation trends on the performance or productivity of freight systems. Addressing the research need, this paper presents the “Freight Mobility Energy Productivity” metric to quantify freight productivity of current as well as future freight systems, accounting for various costs associated with freight transport. The proposed metric was implemented using data from the Freight Analysis Framework along with other published sources, which shows intuitive results in quantifying freight productivity. Further, a scenario analysis exercise was conducted to test the capability of the metric in tracking improvements in system-level freight productivity as a result of vehicle electrification. The relative differences in Freight Mobility Energy Productivity scores help identify which zones benefit from the vehicle powertrain technology improvement. The results of the scenario analysis reinforce confidence that the proposed metric can be used as a decision support tool in assessing the productivity of existing as well as future freight trends and technologies.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

US wildfire potential: a historical view and future projection using high-resolution climate data

Abstract Recent wildfires in the western United States have led to substantial economic losses and social stresses. There is a great concern that the new climatic state may further increase the intensity, duration, and frequency of wildfires. To examine temporal and spatial features of historical wildfire trends and future changes, a common fire index, the Keetch–Byram Drought Index (KBDI), is calculated over the contiguous United States (CONUS) and Alaska. We introduce an efficient initialization method and calculate 36 years (1982–2017) of historical KBDI at 4 km using a high-quality observational dataset. KBDIs are also calculated at 12 km using regional climate models and extended into the mid- and late-21st century. Based on the observational data, annual mean (and 95th percentile) KBDI over forested regions in the southwestern and northwestern CONUS has risen since 1982 at a rate of 5.2 (4.0) and 2.9 (3.3) per year, respectively, indicating a persistent drying trend fostering fire activities; the number of days exceeding the top 5% historical KBDI has increased by 16 and 25 d in the 36 years. Multiple regional climate model simulations project increasing wildfire potential and longer fire seasons over broader areas based on the estimated KBDI for the mid- and late-21st century. By the end of the century, most of the CONUS would experience about 90–189 more days per year exceeding the historical local maximum KBDI; areas with high KBDI (>600), whose occurrence correlates with large burned area, are projected to broaden by nearly 60 times in the southern CONUS. While both temperature and precipitation contribute to future KBDI changes, warming is the main driver of more frequent, intense and wide-spread extreme wildfires indicated by high KBDIs in future projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impacts of turbine and plant upsizing on the levelized cost of energy for offshore wind

Turbine and plant upsizing are major trends in offshore wind deployment, although the quantitative impact on project costs has not been well-characterized. The uncertain value of continued wind turbine and project growth limits the ability of the supply chain to prepare for future technology trends, leading to challenges in the realization of larger projects. This analysis explores the levelized cost of energy impacts of turbine ratings between 6 and 20 MW and plant capacities between 250 and 2,500 MW for fixed-bottom offshore wind using techno-economic cost models for foundation, electrical, installation, and operation and maintenance costs, along with annual energy production. We consider a nominal set of technology assumptions for all scenarios to isolate economies of size and scale without additional benefits from decreasing turbine capital costs, quantity discounts for larger projects, or optimized technology solutions. These results indicate that using a 20-MW wind turbine in a 2,500-MW power plant array can reduce the levelized cost of energy by over 23% relative to the global average turbine and plant size installed in 2019; primarily because of reductions in the balance-of-system and operation and maintenance costs. We also identify improved installation vessels, optimized export systems, and novel operation and maintenance strategies as additional cost reduction opportunities. These results suggest that upsizing represents a significant cost reduction opportunity for offshore wind energy and will continue to be a main factor in shaping the future of the sector.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Review of Ultrafast Switching Power Modules: Trends, Challenges, and Technical Solutions

Benefiting from the superior properties of wide-bandgap semiconductor materials, wide-bandgap power devices demonstrate exceptional switching performance, enabling more efficient and compact power electronics systems. However, ultrafast switching poses challenges to the reliability of the system in terms of severe oscillations and voltage overshoot, electromagnetic interference, and increased risk of partial discharge. By developing advanced power module packaging for fast-switching power devices, the above-mentioned challenges can be mitigated at the packaging level, enabling the full utilization of the fast-switching capability of wide-bandgap devices. Meanwhile, such technology also lays the groundwork for packaging next-generation power devices with even higher blocking voltage and faster switching speed. In this paper, a comprehensive review of ultrafast switching power modules has been made, including the benefits and status of ultrafast switching power modules, challenges brought by ultrafast switching, and promising technologies to address these challenges. In addition, future development trends and research gaps are also discussed in this paper. Furthermore, this review can serve as a reference for future wide-bandgap power module packaging design.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Electric Drive Technology Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities for Future Electric Vehicles

The transition to electric road transport technologies requires electric traction drive systems to offer improved performances and capabilities, such as fuel efficiency (in terms of MPGe, i.e., miles per gallon of gasoline-equivalent), extended range, and fast-charging options. The enhanced electrification and transformed mobility are translating to a demand for higher power and more efficient electric traction drive systems that lead to better fuel economy for a given battery charge. To accelerate the mass-market adoption of electrified transportation, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), in collaboration with the automotive industry, has announced the technical targets for light-duty electric vehicles (EVs) for 2025. This article discusses the electric drive technology trends for passenger electric and hybrid EVs with commercially available solutions in terms of materials, electric machine and inverter designs, maximum speed, component cooling, power density, and performance. Additionally, the emerging materials and technologies for power electronics and electric motors are presented, identifying the challenges and opportunities for even more aggressive designs to meet the need for next-generation EVs. Some innovative drive and motor designs with the potential to meet the DOE 2025 targets are also discussed.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Review of Computer-Aided Manufacturing (CAM) strategies for hybrid directed energy deposition

Hybrid additive manufacturing intertwines both additive and subtractive manufacturing layer by layer to digitally fabricate parts with complex geometries, improved surface finish and tight dimensional accuracies, the sum of which is difficult to obtain with any single process. Computer-Aided Manufacturing (CAM) software is required to orchestrate the machine toolpathing for both the deposition as well as the machining processes and is crucial for the successful fabrication of high quality structures. Additionally, CAM requires substantial operator input to account for challenging aspects of each fabricated structure. For example, deciding at which layer of deposition will the machining process continue to maintain access to complex cavities for finishing - internal features that would otherwise be unfinishable due to reach limitations or obstructions. Moreover, of the many commercially-available hybrid systems, each has a unique kinematic environment which can benefit from specific optimization of toolpath planning and substantial research has directly correlated toolpathing with the microstructure evolution, mechanical properties, porosity and residual stress state of the final fabricated part. This review explores the available strategies for CAM in the context of hybrid direct energy deposition, discusses the advantages and disadvantages of each and considers future CAM trends for this transformational digital manufacturing technology.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

High-dimensional data analytics in civil engineering: A review on matrix and tensor decomposition

Recent developments in sensing and monitoring techniques have led to the generation of high-dimensional data in the field of civil engineering. High-dimensional data analytics methods have thus been developed to interpret such complex data. Among the different high-dimensional data analytics techniques, matrix and tensor decomposition methods have acquired a notable interest in the civil engineering community over the past decade. Due to their unique ability to deal with highly redundant and correlated data, these methods are establishing themselves as promising and efficient tools to analyze high-dimensional data in the civil engineering arena. In this paper, high-dimensional data is referred to as a data set in which the number of features is comparable or larger than the number of observations. This review paper aims to summarize the applications of matrix and tensor decomposition methods in civil engineering over the last decade. The survey begins with a general overview of matrix and tensor decomposition followed by highlighting their significance in the field. Afterward, various applications of these high-dimensional data analytics methods in civil engineering are presented, while the advantages offered by these methods are discussed. Lastly, challenges and potential research avenues for employing matrix and tensor decomposition and future emerging trends for their novel use are highlighted.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling the performance and faradaic efficiency of solid oxide electrolysis cells using doped barium zirconate perovskite electrolytes

Y-doped BaZrO 3 (BaZr 1 x Y x O 3 δ , or “BZY”), a proton-conducting ceramic featuring high bulk conductivity and good chemical stability, is a promising electrolyte material for solid oxide electrolysis cells. Further doping with Ce and/or Yb (creating materials “BCZY” and “BCZYYb”) can improve conductivity and sintering properties, but at significant penalty to cells’ faradaic efficiency (FE). Studies have proposed that reduction of lattice Ce can occur in the hydrogen electrode, which consumes some hydrogen produced by the hydrogen evolution reaction, leading to decreased FE. Despite studies suggesting this phenomenon, the mechanism is largely unknown. In this work, we developed a multiphysics model to study the transport of multiple defect species and the performance of BZY, BCZY, and BCZYYb, capturing the tradeoff between enhanced performance at the cost of FE for BCZY and BCZYYb electrolytes compared to BZY. We also found that increasing the water content of the anode gas supply lowers the current output of the cell but results in better FE. The model, which uses several parameters previously unavailable in the literature, was validated to experiments varying temperature, steam water content, and electrolyte material, as well as two performance metrics (performance curves and FE). Results verify and explain observed trends, informing future work on Ce-doped BZY electrolytes.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using stable isotopes to inform water resource management in forested and agricultural ecosystems

Present and future climatic trends are expected to markedly alter water fluxes and stores in the hydrologic cycle. In addition, water demand continues to grow due to increased human use and a growing population. Sustainably managing water resources requires a thorough understanding of water storage and flow in natural, agricultural, and urban ecosystems. Measurements of stable isotopes of water (hydrogen and oxygen) in the water cycle (atmosphere, soils, plants, surface water, and groundwater) can provide information on the transport pathways, sourcing, dynamics, ages, and storage pools of water that is difficult to obtain with other techniques. However, the potential of these techniques for practical questions has not been fully exploited yet. Here, we outline the benefits and limitations of potential applications of stable isotope methods useful to water managers, farmers, and other stakeholders. We also describe several case studies demonstrating how stable isotopes of water can support water management decision-making. Finally, we propose a workflow that guides users through a sequence of decisions required to apply stable isotope methods to examples of water management issues. We call for ongoing dialogue and a stronger connection between water management stakeholders and water stable isotope practitioners to identify the most pressing issues and develop best-practice guidelines to apply these techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Additive manufacturing of soft magnetic high entropy alloys: A review

Additive manufacturing (AM) offers unique advantages in fabricating soft magnetic high-entropy alloys (HEAs), enabling precise control over material properties and the development of advanced components for applications such as magnetic cores, electric motors, and transformers. These HEAs exhibit superior magnetic performance, mechanical strength, and thermal stability, making them highly suitable for modern electronics applications. Here, this review explores the advancements in AM-processed soft magnetic HEAs, including ongoing research on process optimization, tailored microstructures, and enhanced magnetic properties. It emphasizes the importance of understanding the correlations between AM process parameters, resulting microstructures, and the soft magnetic properties of HEAs. By summarizing the state of the field, we provide insights into current progress and highlight future research trends, focusing on the potential for industrial adoption and advancements in this emerging area.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

An assessment of tropical cyclones in North American $\mathrm{CORDEX}$ $\mathrm{WRF}$ simulations

This work presents an assessment of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the 25 km and 50 km resolution reanalysis-forced and baseline and future (RCP8.5) global climate model (GCM) forced simulations produced for the North American branch of the international Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. A set of complementary 12 km resolution simulations produced as a part of a different project is also included in this assessment. Before examining the projections from the GCM-driven simulations, the ability of the simulations to minimally produce a realistic spatial distribution of historical TC occurrence was assessed in simulations forced by reanalysis and the three different GCMs used herein. Then, projections for occurrence, TC related mean precipitation and precipitation intensity, storm duration, the intensity measured by minimum pressure and maximum wind speed, storm size, and translation speed were examined. Several of these characteristics show little to no change in the future in trend or in distribution across the ensemble. However, many simulations suggest a westward shift or increase in TC occurrence over the East Pacific basin and a decrease in occurrence over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Increases (decreases) in total storm-related precipitation are projected where TC occurrence increases (decreases). TC precipitation intensity is found to increase in all simulations over the East Pacific, but projections are mixed over the North Atlantic. Finally, the ensemble projects a distribution shift towards more intense TC over the East Pacific, and a shift toward faster translation speeds over the North Atlantic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nanotechnology for Sulfur Cathodes

The field of lithium-sulfur batteries has benefited enormously from the advances in nanotechnology. At each step of technological improvement, lithium-sulfur batteries have relied upon techniques and methodologies brought upon by nanotechnology. Nanoporous material, heterogeneous nanocomposite, and hierarchical electrode developments have all been well-established as critical milestones for lithium-sulfur batteries. Overall, this review will briefly discuss the specific major roles of nanotechnology in lithium-sulfur batteries regarding practically relevant testing conditions in addition to research trends and future directions for electrocatalysis.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects

Indirect climate effects on tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-condition interactions) are not currently part of models used to predict future forests. Trends in species abundances predicted from meta-analyses and species distribution models will be misleading if they depend on the conditions of individuals. Here we find from a synthesis of tree species in North America that climate-condition interactions dominate responses through two pathways, i) effects of growth that depend on climate, and ii) effects of climate that depend on tree size. Because tree fecundity first increases and then declines with size, climate change that stimulates growth promotes a shift of small trees to more fecund sizes, but the opposite can be true for large sizes. Change the depresses growth also affects fecundity. We find a biogeographic divide, with these interactions reducing fecundity in the West and increasing it in the East. Continental-scale responses of these forests are thus driven largely by indirect effects, recommending management for climate change that considers multiple demographic rates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗