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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2025

Advancing Development of Emissions Detection (Final Report)

This document is the final report to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE for contract DE-FE0031873) awarded to Colorado State University (CSU). CSU and partners at Harrisburg University of Science and Technology, University of Texas Arlington, and University of Texas at Austin organized several testing rounds to provide knowledge focused on advancing the detection capabilities of emissions monitoring devices. With this funding opportunity the research group began by establishing the Advancing the Development of Emission Detection (ADED) program, with the goal focused on enhancing the accuracy, reliability, and field applicability of methane detection technologies. This effort aimed to address the critical challenges of identifying and quantifying methane emissions while enabling industry stakeholders to meet regulatory compliance and environmental sustainability goals. The program engaged with industry, government, and technology stakeholders to promote adoption and consensus on testing techniques for methane detection solutions. Methane, a potent greenhouse gas, contributes significantly to global warming, and the oil and natural gas (O&G) sector is a primary source of methane emissions. Regulatory measures such as leak detection and repair (LDAR) programs have been implemented to address emissions. However, traditional LDAR approaches, reliant on handheld and component-level measurements, are resource-intensive. To address these limitations and move with evolving regulations, advanced methane technologies are emerging. These solutions include ground-based sensors, mobile systems (e.g., drones, vehicles, and aircraft), and satellite-based platforms. They offer innovative capabilities for autonomous monitoring, larger spatial coverage, and emission quantification using methods such as tracer gas techniques and inverse modeling with Gaussian plume analysis. The ADED program began with creating protocols for methane controlled release (CR) testing these continuous monitoring (CM) and survey technologies that detect and monitor methane emissions at O&G facilities. The protocols were then implemented throughout testing of CM and survey devices at CSU’s Methane Emissions Technology Evaluation Center (METEC) facility from 2021 through 2024. As apart of the protocol, solutions that tested under the ADED program installed their solutions at METEC, documented their system under test, and provided detection reports to the METEC team for analysis. The METEC team would provide the solutions with analyzed reports of their emissions and ground truth data of the releases conducted during their testing session. Under the ADED program, CMs were also tested at O&G facilities for a six week test run of challenge release (ChR) releases. The findings from the ADED program underscore the critical role of collaborative research and innovation in tackling methane emissions, offering a pathway for the oil and gas sector to achieve significant environmental and economic benefits. Results from METEC testing saw improvement of performance and accuracy across all solutions over the extent of the ADED experiments. The results also showed a variance in CM solution performance between CRs and ChRs. That variance pushed the team to further analyze the differences between CR testing environments and field conditions. With the drive from regulations and that variance in field conditions, the ADED team began designing a new CR testing protocol and additions to the METEC testing facility. The METEC team is furthering the progress made through the ADED program with awarded funding from DE-FE0032276. This funding pushes the development of METEC’s addition with new equipment, allowing for an updated facility layout. METEC still facilitates for traditional facilities, with a legacy pad, while expanding an new design based on how O&G infrastructure has Final Report - Contract Number: DE-FE0031873 been changed over the last decade. Throughout the ADED program the team has also been working with international partners to ensure staying in the trend globally. International partners have been essential in moving the new protocol forward to implement into CR testing at the METEC facility in Spring 2025.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analytic Neural Network Gaussian Process Enabled Chance-Constrained Voltage Regulation for Active Distribution Systems with PVs, Batteries and EVs

This paper proposes an analytic neural network Gaussian process (NNGP)-based chance-constrained real-time voltage regulation method for active distribution systems with photovoltaics (PVs), batteries, and electric vehicles (EVs). NNGP can utilize historical measurement data to achieve real-time probabilistic node voltage estimation through Bayesian inference. Then, NNGP is fully analytically embedded into the optimal power flow model to perform voltage regulation and adapt to various topological changes. The uncertainties of voltage estimations are easily considered via the chance constraint, and it has been shown that the adoption of this chance constraint can significantly improve the reliability of voltage regulation under various scenarios. The comparison results with other methods, carried out on a real 759-node distribution system located in western Colorado, U.S., show that the proposed method can achieve accurate voltage estimation across different topologies and reliably perform voltage regulation considering PVs, batteries, and EVs.

active distribution systems↗
DOE OSTI2026

Neural posterior unfolding

Differential cross section measurements are the currency of scientific exchange in particle and nuclear physics. A key challenge for these analyses is the correction for detector distortions, known as deconvolution or unfolding. Binned unfolding of cross section measurements traditionally rely on the regularized inversion of the response matrix that represents the detector response, mapping pre-detector (`particle level') observables to post-detector (`detector level') observables. In this paper we introduce Neural Posterior Unfolding, a modern, Bayesian approach that leverages normalizing flows for unfolding. By using normalizing flows for neural posterior estimation, NPU offers several key advantages including implicit regularization through the neural network architecture, fast amortized inference that eliminates the need for repeated retraining, and direct access to the full uncertainty in the unfolded result. In addition to introducing NPU, we implement a classical Bayesian unfolding method called Fully Bayesian Unfolding (FBU) in modern Python so it can also be studied. These tools are validated on simple Gaussian examples and then tested on simulated jet substructure examples from the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). We find that the Bayesian methods are effective and worth additional development to be analysis ready for cross section measurements at the LHC and beyond.

Analysis and statistical methods↗
DOE OSTI2024

coh3

CoH3 (CoH ver.3) is an optical model, exciton pre-equilibrium, and Hauser-Feshbach statistical model code, which calculates nuclear reaction cross sections for medium to heavy targets in the keV to MeV energy region. This program is written in standard C++, divided into approximately 200 source and header files. CoH solves the Schroedinger equation for optical potentials defined in the code, and calculates differential elastic scattering, reaction, and total cross sections, for neutron, proton, deuteron, triton, 3He, and alpha-particle. Deformed optical potentials are solved with the coupled-channels method, in which the ground state rotational band members, or vibrational phonon states are coupled. The optical model gives particle transmission coefficients that are fed into the statistical model calculations. CoH includes the pre-equilibrium model (exciton model), the direct/semidirect capture model, and the multi-stage Hauser-Feshbach statistical decay with width fluctuation correction based on the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble. For weakly coupled levels, the DWBA (distorted wave Born approximation) method is used to calculate the direct inelastic scattering process to the excited states.

Kawano, Toshihiko↗
DOE OSTI2025

Beyond the two-point correlation: Constraining primordial non-Gaussianity with density-perturbation moments

Constraining primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG) on the large-scale cosmic structure (LSS) is an important step in understanding properties of the early Universe, specifically in distinguishing between different inflationary models. Measuring PNG relies on evaluating the scale-dependent correlations in the density field. New summary statistics beyond the two- and three-point correlation functions in configuration space and their Fourier-space counterparts, the power- and bispectrum may provide increased sensitivity. We introduce a new method for extracting the PNG signal imprinted on the LSS by using the first three Gaussian moments of the normalized correlation in density perturbations, evaluated on varying distance scales. We aim to assess this method’s sensitivity to local PNG, parameterized by f NL . We performed spherical convolutions on a range of scales on dark-matter-halo simulations to measure the scale-dependent correlations in the density field. From these, we computed the first three moments and compared them to a model expectation vector, parameterized to the second power in f NL . Our method provides about 21% improvement in sensitivity to f NL with respect to using the two-point correlation function alone. Notably, we find that the second moment alone carries nearly as much constraining power as the mean, highlighting the potential of higher order statistics. Given its simplicity and efficiency, this framework is well suited for application to current and upcoming large-scale surveys such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI).

early universe↗
DOE OSTI2025

Weighted FFT estimators for 1D and 3D correlations of the Lyman- α forest

Correlations in the Lyman-α (Lyα) forest, both as a function of line of sight separation (1D) and 3D separation, provide a unique window to the distribution of matter at redshifts not accessible by current galaxy surveys. While optimal quadratic estimators have been used to measure 1D correlations, they are computationally expensive and difficult to extend to 3D analyses. On the other hand, estimators based on the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) are significantly faster, but are affected by missing data in the spectra (masked pixels) and so far have not used pixel weights to reduce the uncertainties in the measurement. In this publication we describe how to compute the window matrix that enables forward-modelling the impact of masked pixels and weights on the FFT-based estimators. Here, we use Gaussian and hydrodynamical simulations with artificially masked pixels to validate the method on the measurement of 1D correlations. Finally, we show that the formalism can be extended to model the impact on 3D correlations, in particular on the cross-spectrum, the correlation of 1D Fourier modes as a function of transverse separation. This work will enable more precise clustering measurements with the Lyα forest dataset recently collected by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI).

Lokken, Martine [Univ. Autonoma de Barcelona (Spai↗
DOE OSTI2024

Extracting Topological Orders of Generalized Pauli Stabilizer Codes in Two Dimensions

In this paper, we introduce an algorithm for extracting topological data from translation invariant generalized Pauli stabilizer codes in two-dimensional systems, focusing on the analysis of anyon excitations and string operators. The algorithm applies to Z d qudits, including instances where d is a nonprime number. This capability allows the identification of topological orders that differ from the Z d toric codes. It extends our understanding beyond the established theorem that Pauli stabilizer codes for Z p qudits (with p being a prime) are equivalent to finite copies of Z p toric codes and trivial stabilizers. The algorithm is designed to determine all anyons and their string operators, enabling the computation of their fusion rules, topological spins, and braiding statistics. The method converts the identification of topological orders into computational tasks, including Gaussian elimination, the Hermite normal form, and the Smith normal form of truncated Laurent polynomials. Furthermore, the algorithm provides a systematic approach for studying quantum error-correcting codes. We apply it to various codes, such as self-dual CSS quantum codes modified from the two-dimensional honeycomb color code and non-CSS quantum codes that contain the double semion topological order or the six-semion topological order. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2026

HostSub_GP: Precise Galaxy Background Subtraction in Transient Long-slit Spectroscopy with Gaussian Processes

We present a novel host galaxy subtraction technique in long-slit spectroscopy for extragalactic transients. Unlike classic methods which generally estimate the background using simple interpolation of local galaxy flux in the 2D spectrum, our approach leverages multi-band archival images of the host galaxies to model the background emission from the galaxy in the 2D spectrum. Such imaging encodes the wavelength-dependent galaxy profile along the slit, and is readily accessible through wide-field imaging surveys. We construct a smooth prior for the 2D galaxy profile with a Gaussian process (GP) based on these reference images, and use another GP to model the correlated deviations from the prior in the observed spectrum. This enables accurate inference of the galaxy flux blended with the transient. On synthetic long-slit data of a spiral galaxy extracted from a Multi Unit Spectroscopic Explorer hyper-spectral cube, the GP method remains robust as long as the host galaxy is spatially resolved and consistently outperforms classic methods. We apply the method to archival Keck spectra of two real transients, SN 2019eix and AT 2019qiz, to further demonstrate how the method uniquely recovers weak spectral features amid strong galaxy contamination, enabling refined constraints on the properties of both transients. We have released the software implementation, HostSub_GP, a scalable toolkit that leverages JAX, with an MIT license.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Fast baryonic field painting for Sunyaev-Zel’dovich analyses: Transfer function vs hybrid effective field theory

Here, we present two approaches for “painting” baryonic properties relevant to the Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (SZ) effect—optical depth and Compton-y—onto three-dimensional N-body simulations, using the MillenniumTNG suite as a benchmark. The goal of these methods is to produce fast and accurate reconstruction methods to aid future analyses of baryonic feedback using the SZ effect. The first approach employs a Gaussian process emulator to model the SZ quantities via a transfer function, while the second utilizes hybrid effective field theory (HEFT) to reproduce these quantities within the simulation. Our analysis involves comparing both methods to the true MillenniumTNG optical depth and Compton-y fields using several metrics, including the cross-correlation coefficient, power spectrum, and power spectrum error. Additionally, we assess how well the reconstructed fields correlate with dark matter haloes across various mass thresholds. The results indicate that the transfer function method yields more accurate reconstructions for fields with initially high correlations (r ≈ 1), such as between the optical depth and dark matter fields. Conversely, the HEFT-based approach proves more effective in enhancing correlations for fields with weaker initial correlations (r ∼ 0.5), such as between the Compton-y and dark matter fields. Lastly, we discuss extensions of our methods to improve the reconstruction performance at the field level.

Liu, R. Henry [University of California, Berkeley,↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hierarchical Gaussian process-based Bayesian optimization for materials discovery in high entropy alloy spaces

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful and data-efficient method for iterative materials discovery and design, particularly valuable when prior knowledge is limited, underlying functional relationships are complex or unknown, and the cost of querying the materials space is significant. Traditional BO methodologies typically utilize conventional Gaussian Processes (cGPs) to model the relationships between material inputs and properties, as well as correlations within the input space. However, cGP-BO approaches often fall short in multi-objective optimization scenarios, where they are unable to fully exploit correlations between distinct material properties. Leveraging these correlations can significantly enhance the discovery process, as information about one property can inform and improve predictions about others. Here, this study addresses this limitation by employing advanced kernel structures to capture and model multi-dimensional property correlations through multi-task (MTGPs) or deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs), thus accelerating the discovery process. We demonstrate the effectiveness of MTGP-BO and DGP-BO in rapidly and robustly solving complex materials design challenges that occur within the context of complex multi-objective optimization over FCC FeCrNiCoCu high entropy alloy (HEA) spaces, where traditional cGP-BO approaches fail. Furthermore, we highlight how the differential costs associated with querying various material properties can be strategically leveraged to make the materials discovery process more cost-efficient.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian learning with Gaussian processes for low-dimensional representations of time-dependent nonlinear systems

This work presents a data-driven method for learning low-dimensional time-dependent physics-based surrogate models whose predictions are endowed with uncertainty estimates. We use the operator inference approach to model reduction that poses the problem of learning low-dimensional model terms as a regression of state space data and corresponding time derivatives by minimizing the residual of reduced system equations. Standard operator inference models perform well with accurate training data that are dense in time, but producing stable and accurate models when the state data are noisy and/or sparse in time remains a challenge. Another challenge is the lack of uncertainty estimation for the predictions from the operator inference models. Our approach addresses these challenges by incorporating Gaussian process surrogates into the operator inference framework to (1) probabilistically describe uncertainties in the state predictions and (2) procure analytical time derivative estimates with quantified uncertainties. The formulation leads to a generalized least-squares regression and, ultimately, reduced-order models that are described probabilistically with a closed-form expression for the posterior distribution of the operators. The resulting probabilistic surrogate model propagates uncertainties from the observed state data to reduced-order predictions. Furthermore, we demonstrate the method is effective for constructing low-dimensional models of two nonlinear partial differential equations representing a compressible flow and a nonlinear diffusion–reaction process, as well as for estimating the parameters of a low-dimensional system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations representing compartmental models in epidemiology.

Data-driven model reduction↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tackling the curse of dimensionality in fractional and tempered fractional PDEs with physics-informed neural networks

Fractional and tempered fractional partial differential equations (PDEs) are effective models of long-range interactions, anomalous diffusion, and non-local effects. Traditional numerical methods for these problems are mesh-based, thus struggling with the curse of dimensionality (CoD). Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) offer a promising solution due to their universal approximation, generalization ability, and mesh-free training. In principle, Monte Carlo fractional PINN (MC-fPINN) estimates fractional derivatives using Monte Carlo methods and thus could lift CoD. However, this may cause significant variance and errors, hence affecting convergence; in addition, MC-fPINN is sensitive to hyperparameters. In general, numerical methods and specifically PINNs for tempered fractional PDEs are under-developed. Herein, we extend MC-fPINN to tempered fractional PDEs to address these issues, resulting in the Monte Carlo tempered fractional PINN (MC-tfPINN). To reduce possible high variance and errors from Monte Carlo sampling, we replace the one-dimensional (1D) Monte Carlo with 1D Gaussian quadrature, applicable to both MC-fPINN and MC-tfPINN. We validate our methods on various forward and inverse problems of fractional and tempered fractional PDEs, scaling up to 100,000 dimensions. Our improved MC-fPINN/MC-tfPINN using quadrature consistently outperforms the original versions in accuracy and convergence speed in very high dimensions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulations of Stochastic Fluid Dynamics near a Critical Point in the Phase Diagram

Here, we present simulations of stochastic fluid dynamics in the vicinity of a critical endpoint belonging to the universality class of the Ising model. This study is motivated by the challenge of modeling the dynamics of critical fluctuations near a conjectured critical endpoint in the phase diagram of quantum chromodynamics (QCD). We focus on the interaction of shear modes with a conserved scalar density, which is known as model H. We show that the observed dynamical scaling behavior depends on the correlation length and the shear viscosity of the fluid. As the correlation length is increased or the viscosity is decreased we observe a crossover from the dynamical exponent of critical diffusion, z≃4, to the expected scaling exponent of model H, z≃3. We use our method to investigate the time-dependent correlation function of non-Gaussian moments M n (t) of the order parameter. We find that the relaxation time depends in a nontrivial manner on the power n.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Toward Accelerated Nuclear-physics Parameter Estimation from Binary Neutron Star Mergers: Emulators for the Tolman–Oppenheimer–Volkoff Equations

Abstract Gravitational-wave observations of binary neutron-star (BNS) mergers have the potential to revolutionize our understanding of the nuclear equation of state (EOS) and the fundamental interactions that determine its properties. However, Bayesian parameter estimation frameworks do not typically sample over microscopic nuclear-physics parameters that determine the EOS. One of the major hurdles in doing so is the computational cost involved in solving the neutron-star structure equations, known as the Tolman–Oppenheimer–Volkoff (TOV) equations. In this paper, we explore approaches to emulating solutions for the TOV equations: multilayer perceptrons (MLPs), Gaussian processes, and a data-driven variant of the reduced basis method (RBM). We implement these emulators for three different parameterizations of the nuclear EOS, each with a different degree of complexity represented by the number of model parameters. We find that our MLP-based emulators are generally more accurate than the other two algorithms, whereas the RBM results in the largest speedup with respect to the full high-fidelity TOV solver. We employ these emulators for a simple parameter inference using a potentially loud BNS observation and show that the posteriors predicted by our emulators are in excellent agreement with those obtained from the full TOV solver.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Detecting outbreaks using a spatial latent field

In this paper, we present a method for estimating the infection-rate of a disease as a spatial-temporal field. Our data comprises time-series case-counts of symptomatic patients in various areal units of a region. We extend an epidemiological model, originally designed for a single areal unit, to accommodate multiple units. The field estimation is framed within a Bayesian context, utilizing a parameterized Gaussian random field as a spatial prior. We apply an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo method to sample the posterior distribution of the model parameters condition on COVID-19 case-count data from three adjacent counties in New Mexico, USA. Our results suggest that the correlation between epidemiological dynamics in neighboring regions helps regularize estimations in areas with high variance (i.e., poor quality) data. Using the calibrated epidemic model, we forecast the infection-rate over each areal unit and develop a simple anomaly detector to signal new epidemic waves. Our findings show that anomaly detector based on estimated infection-rates outperforms a conventional algorithm that relies solely on case-counts.

Safta, Cosmin [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-C↗
DOE OSTI2026

Desmearing Bonse–Hart USANS data using Bayesian Gaussian process regression

Ultra-small-angle neutron scattering (USANS) enables access to micrometer-scale structures but is intrinsically affected by strong, anisotropic resolution smearing arising from slit-geometry optics. As a result, recovery of the intrinsic scattering intensity constitutes an ill-posed inverse problem, and commonly used iterative desmearing methods lack rigorous uncertainty quantification. We present a Bayesian desmearing framework for slit-geometry USANS based on Gaussian process regression. In this approach, the scattering intensity is modeled as a smooth random function, and the instrumental point spread function is incorporated explicitly as a forward operator. The resulting formulation yields a closed-form maximum a posteriori solution with well-defined credibility intervals. Computational benchmarks and experimental validation using combined USANS and small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) measurements demonstrate that the framework enables stable desmearing, suppresses experimental noise, and preserves physically meaningful structural features under realistic conditions.

Tung, Chi-Huan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical Gaussian Random Field Sampling for Multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Coupling Stochastic Partial Differential Equation and the Karhunen–Loève Decomposition

This work introduces structure preserving hierarchical decompositions for sampling Gaussian random fields (GRFs) within the context of multilevel Bayesian inference in high-dimensional space. Existing scalable hierarchical sampling methods, such as those based on stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs), often reduce the dimensionality of the sample space at the cost of accuracy of inference. Other approaches, such that those based on Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansions, offer sample space dimensionality reduction but sacrifice GRF representation accuracy and ergodicity of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler and are computationally expensive for high-dimensional problems. The proposed method integrates the dimensionality reduction capabilities of KL expansions with the scalability of SPDE-based sampling, thereby providing a robust, unified framework for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification (UQ) that is scalable and accurate, preserves ergodicity, and offers dimensionality reduction of the sample space. The hierarchy in our multilevel algorithm is derived from the geometric multigrid hierarchy. By constructing a hierarchical decomposition that maintains the covariance structure across the levels in the hierarchy, the approach enables efficient coarse-to-fine sampling while ensuring that all samples are drawn from the desired distribution. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated on a benchmark subsurface flow problem, demonstrating its effectiveness in improving computational efficiency and statistical accuracy. Furthermore, our proposed technique is more efficient and accurate and displays better convergence properties than existing methods for high-dimensional Bayesian inference problems.

Gaussian random fields↗
DOE OSTI2024

Accelerating Thermochemical Equilibrium Calculations for Nuclear Reactor Applications

Thermochemical properties play a key role in modeling and simulation of several key phenomena in nuclear reactors. There has been an increasing interest in incorporating CALPHAD-based formulations in multiphysics simulations including for Molten Salt Reactors where knowledge of phase evolution of the salt and the chemical potentials of various elements are of utmost importance in source term analyses and redox control. However, the size of such simulations is often limited by the high computational cost of full thermodynamic equilibrium calculations. This work discusses the current efforts aimed at accelerating thermochemical equilibrium calculations for multiphysics simulations performed using the open-source finite element / finite volume code Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) [1]. While several methods have been proposed for accelerating phase equilibrium calculations [2], most focus on relatively small systems and often rely on a- priori knowledge of the state-space of the system. Nuclear materials, however, are often multi-component systems owing to the evolution of composition under irradiation and an approach based on a-priori mapping of phase diagram is often not enough. This work is aimed at demonstrating an on-the-fly surrogate modeling framework that uses active learning to reduce the number of full equilibrium calculations that must be performed. By combining with efficient coupling approaches, the surrogate framework helps in reducing the computational cost of thermodynamic equilibrium informed multiphysics simulations of nuclear materials. The performance is benchmarked against full coupling with the thermochemistry library Thermochimica [3]. This work uses a machine learning based approach for constructing surrogate models to predict the stable phases in a multicomponent system. The surrogates were constructed using neural networks and Gaussian process classification. In this work, we compare the relative performance of the two methods. We also demonstrate the use of caching previous calculations by interpolating the values from nearest neighbors. References [1] Lindsay, A.D., et al. "2.0 – MOOSE: Enabling massively parallel multiphysics simulation", SoftwareX, 20 (2022): 101202. [2] Roos, W.A. and Zietsman J.H. "Accelerating complex chemical equilibrium calculations – A Review", Calphad, 77 (2022): 102380. [3] Piro, M.H.A., et al. "The thermochemistry library Thermochimica", Computational Materials Science, 67 (2013): 266-272.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗