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The Importance of Modeling Carbon Dioxide Transportation and Geologic Storage in Energy System Planning Tools

Energy system planning tools suggest that the cost and feasibility of climate-stabilizing energy transitions are sensitive to the cost of CO 2 capture and storage processes (CCS), but the representation of CO 2 transportation and geologic storage in these tools is often simple or non-existent. We develop the capability of producing dynamic-reservoir-simulation-based geologic CO 2 storage supply curves with the Sequestration of CO 2 Tool (SCO 2 T) and use it with the ReEDS electric sector planning model to investigate the effects of CO 2 transportation and geologic storage representation on energy system planning tool results. We use a locational case study of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region. Our results suggest that the cost of geologic CO 2 storage may be as low as $3/tCO 2 and that site-level assumptions may affect this cost by several dollars per tonne. At the grid level, the cost of geologic CO 2 storage has generally smaller effects compared to other assumptions (e.g., natural gas price), but small variations in this cost can change results (e.g., capacity deployment decisions) when policy renders CCS marginally competitive. The cost of CO 2 transportation generally affects the location of geologic CO 2 storage investment more than the quantity of CO 2 captured or the location of electricity generation investment. We conclude with a few recommendations for future energy system researchers when modeling CCS. For example, assuming a cost for geologic CO 2 storage (e.g., $5/tCO 2 ) may be less consequential compared to assuming free storage by excluding it from the model.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Time-lapse seismic data inversion for estimating reservoir parameters using deep learning

Geologic carbon sequestration involves the injection of captured carbon dioxide ([Formula: see text]) into subsurface formations for long-term storage. The movement and fate of the injected [Formula: see text] plume is of great concern to regulators because monitoring helps to identify potential leakage zones and determines the possibility of safe long-term storage. To address this concern, we design a deep-learning framework for [Formula: see text] saturation monitoring to determine the geologic controls on the storage of the injected [Formula: see text]. We use different combinations of porosities and permeabilities for a given reservoir to generate saturation and velocity models. We train the deep-learning model with a few time-lapse seismic images and their corresponding changes in saturation values for a particular [Formula: see text] injection site. The deep-learning model learns the mapping from the change in the time-lapse seismic response to the change in [Formula: see text] saturation during the training phase. We then apply the trained model to data sets comprising different time-lapse seismic image slices (corresponding to different time instances) generated using different porosity and permeability distributions that are not part of the training to estimate the [Formula: see text] saturation values along with the plume extent. Our algorithm provides a deep-learning assisted framework for the direct estimation of [Formula: see text] saturation values and plume migration in heterogeneous formations using the time-lapse seismic data. Our method improves the efficiency of time-lapse inversion by streamlining the large number of intermediate steps in the conventional time-lapse inversion workflow. This method also helps to incorporate the geologic uncertainty for a given reservoir by accounting for the statistical distribution of porosity and permeability during the training phase. Tests on different examples verify the effectiveness of our approach.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Dynamic Earth Energy Storage: Terawatt-year, Grid-scale Energy Storage Using Planet Earth as a Thermal Battery (GeoTES): Phase I Project (Final Report)

Grid-scale energy storage has been identified by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Storage Grand Challenge as a necessary technology to support the continued build-out of intermittent renewable energy resources required to attain a carbon-free energy future. To meet this goal, the 2018 Department of Energy Research and Innovation Act mandated the creation of a comprehensive program to accelerate the development and commercialization of next-generation energy storage technologies. One of numerous energy storage technology options is the storage of excess energy as heated geothermal brine in suitable geologic formations. This concept, known as reservoir thermal energy storage (RTES), geologic thermal energy storage (GeoTES), aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES), etc., relies on the storage of thermal energy in geologic formations for recovery and use in large-scale direct use geothermal (e.g., district heating, industrial processes, etc.) and electrical power generation applications. This thermal energy is derived from excess or waste heat from any high-temperature heat source, such as concentrated solar or from conventional thermal/nuclear generation. As such, RTES can potentially play a significant role in meeting the energy storage shortfall in the coming decades. RTES can provide energy arbitrage through both the storage and production of thermal energy stored in geologic formations for direct use applications and can serve as a source of hot fluids that can be used to generate electricity to support peak demand ramping, thus easing stress on transmission and distribution. This energy storage option has geographic benefits in that energy can be stored locally or regionally depending on the various needs/loads. RTES can also be located across an enormous geographic area, without the need for a traditional hydrothermal resource but where thermal gradients and hydrogeology allow economic exploitation of subsurface heat. The work conducted for this project includes (1) a review of lessons learned from past high-temperature RTES international projects; (2) geochemical experimental investigation and numerical simulations of potential domestic sedimentary reservoirs and (3) development of a thermo-hydrological-mechanical (THM) numerical simulation tool for optimizing formation properties and design parameters to maximize thermal energy storage performance.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Multi-Scale 3D Imaging for Machine Learning Property Upscaling: Mt. Simon Sandstone Case Study

Petrographic properties of principal target reservoirs for carbon sequestration, such as the Mt. Simon Sandstone, are relevant to broad interest groups. The Mt. Simon Sandstone is a deep, saline, regionally extensive Cambrian sandstone, overlain by low permeability sealing formations, making it one of the viable geologic carbon storage reservoirs in the Midwestern US. Its thickness (exceeding 2400 ft in some localities), depth, and lateral extent, combined with high porosity and permeability make it a high-priority target of multiple ongoing geologic carbon sequestration efforts in the United States of America. The National Energy Technology Laboratory in Morgantown, West Virginia, has been engaged in characterization efforts of the Mt. Simon for over a decade, with a strong focus on Computed Tomographic data acquisition. Data generated during this period has been hitherto not accessible to the public. This archival effort focused on preservation of historical CT data and associated metadata, and facilitating their accessibility, culminating with the publication of the entire dataset on NETL’s Energy Data eXchange (EDX) and the associated Gill et. al (2024) paper.

Gill, Magdalena K.↗

Normal or abnormal? Machine learning for the leakage detection in carbon sequestration projects using pressure field data

The international commitments for atmospheric carbon reduction will require a rapid increase in carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects. The key to any successful CCS project lies in the long term storage and prevention of leakage of stored carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). In addition to being a greenhouse gas, CO 2 leaks reaching the surface can accumulate in low-lying areas resulting in a serious health risk. Among several alternatives, some of the more promising CCS storage formations are depleted oil and gas reservoirs, where the reservoirs had good geological seals prior to hydrocarbon extraction. With more CCS wells coming online, it is imperative to implement permanent, automated monitoring tools. We apply machine learning models to automate the leakage detection process in carbon storage reservoirs using rates of (CO 2 ) injection and pressure data measured by simple harmonic pulse testing (HPT). To validate the feasibility of this machine learning based workflow, we use data from HPT experiments carried out in the Cranfield oil field, Mississippi, USA. The data consist of a series of pulse tests conducted with baseline parameters and with an artificially introduced leak. Here, in this study, we pose the leakage detection task as an anomaly detection problem where deviation from the predicted behavior indicates leaks in the reservoir. Results show that different machine learning architectures such as multi-layer feed forward network, Long Short-Term Memory, and convolutional neural network are able to identify leakages and can provide early warning. These warnings can then be used to take remedial measures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

History Matching and Prediction of a Polymer Flood Pilot in Heavy Oil Reservoir on Alaska North Slope

The first-ever polymer flood pilot to enhance heavy oil recovery on Alaska North Slope is ongoing. After more than 3 years of polymer injection, significant benefit has been observed from the decrease in water cut from 65% to less than 15% in the project producers. The primary objective of this study is to develop a robust history-matched reservoir simulation model capable of predicting future polymer flood performance. In this work, the reservoir simulation model has been developed based on the geological model and available reservoir and fluid data. In particular, four high transmissibility strips were introduced to connect the injector-producer well pairs, simulating short-circuiting flow behavior that can be explained by viscous fingering and reproducing the water cut history. The strip transmissibilities were manually tuned to improve the history matching results during the waterflooding and polymer flooding periods, respectively. It has been found that higher strip transmissibilities match the sharp water cut increase very well in the waterflooding period. Then the strip transmissibilities need to be reduced with time to match the significant water cut reduction. The viscous fingering effect in the reservoir during waterflooding and the restoration of injection conformance during polymer flooding have been effectively represented. Based on the validated simulation model, numerical simulation tests have been conducted to investigate the oil recovery performance under different development strategies, with consideration for sensitivity to polymer parameter uncertainties. The oil recovery factor with polymer flooding can reach about 39% in 30 years, twice as much as forecasted with continued waterflooding. Besides, the updated reservoir model has been successfully employed to forecast polymer utilization, a valuable parameter to evaluate the pilot test’s economic efficiency. All the investigated development strategies indicate polymer utilization lower than 3.5 lbs/bbl in 30 years, which is less than that of the same polymer used in a polymer pilot in Argentina.

Wang, Xindan↗

Machine learning based rate optimization under geologic uncertainty

We propose a novel approach for rate optimization during a waterflood under geologic uncertainty in reservoir properties such as permeability and porosity. The traditional approach typically involves several runs of the forward simulator. This may not scale well when the optimization is to be performed at the full field-level and over multiple geologic realizations. A machine-learning (ML) based approach which is quick and scalable for rate optimization over multiple geologic realizations is proposed instead. The training data for the model is generated by running the forward simulator with randomly assigned well rates using multiple geologic realizations. A reduced order representation of the permeability heterogeneity in each of the realizations is derived using a grid connectivity transformation (GCT). This step involves finding basis functions corresponding to the different modal frequencies of the grid connectivity represented by the grid Laplacian. The projection of the heterogeneous property field along these basis functions gives the basis coefficients that form the reduced order representation. Subsequently, for each training datapoint, streamlines are traced and the minimum time of flight (TOF) representing the tracer breakthrough time at each producer is recorded. The basis coefficients and well rates are fed to a machine learning model as input and the minimum TOF at the producers forms the output of the model. This trained model can then be used along with an optimizer for computing the optimal injection rates to maximize the injection sweep efficiency. This corresponds to minimizing the variance in the minimum TOF within each well group. Different architectures of neural network are tested using 5-fold cross validation to decide the best ML model to compute the streamline time of flight. The trained model is used to perform well rate optimization over multiple realizations of geology by using a risk tolerance penalty. The optimal well rates thus obtained are compared with two cases: a) equal well rates assigned to all injectors and producers and b) well rates obtained by optimizing over a single realization without considering the uncertainty in geology. The optimal well rates are seen to offer better oil recovery and sweep efficiency than both cases.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Workflow for Developing and Operating Subsurface Hydrogen Storage Facilities in Porous Reservoirs

Long-duration (seasonal) storage of natural gas (NG), which primarily consists of methane (CH 4 ), has been practiced for more than a hundred years at underground gas storage (UGS) facilities that use depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs, saline aquifers, and salt caverns. To enable hydrogen (H 2 ) to be used as a long-duration, energy-storage medium, similar facilities are envisioned for underground H 2 storage (UHS) of either H 2 or H 2 /NG mixtures. Experience with UGS can be used to guide recommended practices for developing and operating UHS facilities in porous reservoirs. The most important factors (formation/fluid properties and engineering choices) that influence the performance of UHS reservoirs have been identified and quantified in previous studies. These factors and choices influence phenomena that determine the sweep efficiency of the stored working gas. These phenomena include viscous fingering, hysteretic capillary trapping, and gravity override of the working gas, as well as the upconing of nonproductive fluid that determine the sweep efficiency of the stored working gas. This report describes initial recommended-practices and a project-development workflow for UHS facilities that utilize porous reservoirs, based on the current state-of-knowledge about H 2 behavior in the subsurface. The workflow sequentially addresses all aspects of UHS project development, including the identification of H 2 sources and users, site ranking and down-selection, geologic and reservoir-engineering characterization, reservoir design, testing, risk management, commissioning, operations, and monitoring for a UHS facility. The goal is to enable UHS facilities to be developed in an efficient and timely manner, while carefully managing project risks. This workflow is similar to that which has been developed for UGS facilities (see Figure 1 of API, 2022), with the addition of tasks and subtasks specific to H 2 and UHS. The project-development workflow is broken down into three major stages: (1) define the H 2 use case; (2) rank, down-select, and characterize potential, candidate UHS sites; and (3) reservoir design, integrity testing, risk assessment, commissioning, operations, and monitoring for selected UHS sites. Each major stage is further broken down into tasks and subtasks, which are described at a high level. This report also provides more detailed descriptions of all tasks and subtasks that involve reservoir analysis and testing.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Detection and Characterization of Martian Volatile-Rich Reservoirs: The Netlander Approach

Geological and theoretical modeling do indicate that, most probably, a significant part of the volatiles present in the past is presently stocked within the Martian subsurface as ground ice, and as clay minerals (water constitution). The detection of liquid water is of prime interest and should have deep implications in the understanding of the Martian hydrological cycle and also in exobiology. In the frame of the 2005 joint CNES-NASA mission to Mars, a set of 4 NETLANDERs developed by an European consortium is expected to be launched between 2005 and 2007. The geophysical package of each lander will include a geo-radar (GPR experiment), a magnetometer (MAGNET experiment), a seismometer (SEIS experiment) and a meteorological package (ATMIS experiment). The NETLANDER mission offers a unique opportunity to explore simultaneously the subsurface as well as deeper layers of the planetary interior on 4 different landing sites. The complementary contributions of all these geophysical soundings onboard the NETLANDER stations are presented.

Banerdt, B.↗

Deep learning-accelerated 3D carbon storage reservoir pressure forecasting based on data assimilation using surface displacement from InSAR

Fast forecasting of the reservoir pressure distribution during geologic carbon storage (GCS) by assimilating monitoring data is a challenging problem. Due to high drilling cost, GCS projects usually have spatially sparse measurements from few wells, leading to high uncertainties in reservoir pressure prediction. To address this challenge, we use low-cost Interferometric Synthetic-Aperture Radar (InSAR) data as monitoring data to infer reservoir pressure build up. We develop a deep learning-accelerated workflow to assimilate surface displacement maps interpreted from InSAR and to forecast dynamic reservoir pressure. Employing an Ensemble Smoother Multiple Data Assimilation (ES-MDA) framework, the workflow updates three-dimensional (3D) geologic properties and predicts reservoir pressure with quantified uncertainties. We use a synthetic commercial-scale GCS model with bimodally distributed permeability and porosity to demonstrate the efficacy of the workflow. A two-step CNN-PCA approach is employed to parameterize the bimodal fields. The computational efficiency of the workflow is boosted by two residual U-Net based surrogate models for surface displacement and reservoir pressure predictions, respectively. The workflow can complete data assimilation and reservoir pressure forecasting in half an hour on a personal computer.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Evidence from Hydrogen Isotopes in Meteorites for a Subsurface Hydrogen Reservoir on Mars

The surface geology and geomorphology of Mars indicates that it was once warm enough to maintain a large body of liquid water on its surface, though such a warm environment might have been transient. The transition to the present cold and dry Mars is closely linked to the history of surface water, yet the evolution of surficial water is poorly constrained. We have conducted in situ hydrogen isotope (D/H) analyses of quenched and impact glasses in three Martian meteorites (Yamato 980459, EETA79001, LAR 06319) by Cameca ims-6f at Digital Terrain Models (DTM) following the methods of [1]. The hydrogen isotope analyses provide evidence for the existence of a distinct but ubiquitous water/ice reservoir (D/H = 2-3 times Earth's ocean water: Standard Mean Ocean Water (SMOW)) that lasted from at least the time when the meteorites crystallized (173-472 Ma) to the time they were ejected by impacts (0.7-3.3 Ma), but possibly much longer [2]. The origin of this reservoir appears to predate the current Martian atmospheric water (D/H equals approximately 5-6 times SMOW) and is unlikely to be a simple mixture of atmospheric and primordial water retained in the Martian mantle (D/H is approximately equal to SMOW [1]). Given the fact that this intermediate-D/H reservoir (2-3 times SMOW) is observed in a diverse range of Martian materials with different ages (e.g., SNC (Shergottites, Nakhlites, Chassignites) meteorites, including shergottites such as ALH 84001; and Curiosity surface data [3]), we conclude that this intermediate-D/H reservoir is likely a global surficial feature that has remained relatively intact over geologic time. We propose that this reservoir represents either hydrated crust and/or ground ice interbedded within sediments. Our results corroborate the hypothesis that a buried cryosphere accounts for a large part of the initial water budget of Mars.

Usui, Tomohiro↗

Offshore Geologic Carbon Storage Data Collection and International Project Inventory

We present an interactive data collection to aggregate, understand, and disseminate the data that are publicly available to support offshore GCS which can be leveraged by stakeholders to understand where GCS may be viable offshore, create GCS project analogs, and address challenges to GCS in offshore environments. The Offshore Geologic Carbon Storage Data Collection is an Experience Builder web application of multiple web mapping applications, aggregated into a single tool for each data type for access, visualization, and exploration. We also present a spatial inventory of global offshore GCS efforts to visualize the scale and locations of actualized and potential offshore GCS. It includes project location, project type and stage, CO2 storage resource potential, injection rate, reservoir and seal geology, and key literature references. Quantitative and qualitative comparisons of the distribution and magnitude of projects by their attributes lends spatial insight into the status of global GCS operations and storage resource potential, thereby enabling comparative assessments and cross-cutting knowledge transfer for projects in development. These datasets illuminate trends in ongoing offshore projects and can be leveraged by stakeholders to estimate storage resources, identify subsurface analogs, review regulations, and address challenges to offshore GCS. Additionally, opportunities for concurrent decarbonization strategies can be identified.

Mulhern, Julia↗

International Offshore Geologic Carbon Storage Project Inventory and Data Collection

We present an interactive data collection to aggregate, understand, and disseminate the data that are publicly available to support offshore GCS which can be leveraged by stakeholders to understand where GCS may be viable offshore, create GCS project analogs, and address challenges to GCS in offshore environments. The Offshore Geologic Carbon Storage Data Collection is an Experience Builder web application of multiple web mapping applications, aggregated into a single tool for each data type for access, visualization, and exploration. We also present a spatial inventory of global offshore GCS efforts to visualize the scale and locations of actualized and potential offshore GCS. It includes project location, project type and stage, CO2 storage resource potential, injection rate, reservoir and seal geology, and key literature references. Quantitative and qualitative comparisons of the distribution and magnitude of projects by their attributes lends spatial insight into the status of global GCS operations and storage resource potential, thereby enabling comparative assessments and cross-cutting knowledge transfer for projects in development. These datasets illuminate trends in ongoing offshore projects and can be leveraged by stakeholders to estimate storage resources, identify subsurface analogs, review regulations, and address challenges to offshore GCS. Additionally, opportunities for concurrent decarbonization strategies can be identified.

Mulhern, Julia↗

International Offshore Geologic Carbon Storage Inventory and Data Collection

We present an interactive data collection to aggregate, understand, and disseminate the data that are publicly available to support offshore GCS which can be leveraged by stakeholders to understand where GCS may be viable offshore, create GCS project analogs, and address challenges to GCS in offshore environments. The Offshore Geologic Carbon Storage Data Collection is an Experience Builder web application of multiple web mapping applications, aggregated into a single tool for each data type for access, visualization, and exploration. We also present a spatial inventory of global offshore GCS efforts to visualize the scale and locations of actualized and potential offshore GCS. It includes project location, project type and stage, CO2 storage resource potential, injection rate, reservoir and seal geology, and key literature references. Quantitative and qualitative comparisons of the distribution and magnitude of projects by their attributes lends spatial insight into the status of global GCS operations and storage resource potential, thereby enabling comparative assessments and cross-cutting knowledge transfer for projects in development. These datasets illuminate trends in ongoing offshore projects and can be leveraged by stakeholders to estimate storage resources, identify subsurface analogs, review regulations, and address challenges to offshore GCS. Additionally, opportunities for concurrent decarbonization strategies can be identified.

Mulhern, Julia↗

Assessment of Enhanced Oil Recovery Using Carbon Dioxide in Michigan Basin Silurian Pinnacle Reefs

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) has incorporated the work of geologic research teams (Geoteams) in its regional characterization, project planning and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) injection implementation work since the partnership was established by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in 2003. Over this 16-year period, the cohort of Geoteams has grown from five to ten states and has contributed to the characterization of geologic sequestration opportunities, refinement of reservoir and seal data, and supported injection efforts through both predictive and post-injection assessments. The Michigan team at Western Michigan University has provided technical analysis and support of the enhanced oil recovery (EOR) using carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the Northern Michigan Silurian Pinnacle reefs. With Core Energy, LLC as the industry partner, this project has assessed the potential for EOR in known fields in the Michigan Pinnacle reefs and the capacity for CO2 storage in the reef reservoirs as they are depleted and after reservoir abandonment. This project managed by Core Energy, LLC, involves the only commercial CO 2 Enhanced Oil Recovery floods within the MRCSP region. The Silurian pinnacle reef trend shows significant potential for CO 2 -EOR: this play is relatively new, with approximately 60% of the wells in the largest Niagaran fields still accessible. Most wells have modern logs and there are many cores, core analyses, pressure tests and produced water analyses available for study from these fields. These carbonate reservoirs in Michigan have produced sufficient oil to warrant evaluation for additional recovery efforts. The role of the Michigan team was to collect and analyze all relevant data about reservoir properties, including lithologic and depositional characteristics of the reservoir formations and porosity and fluid flow properties through different compartments in the reservoir. The team has also developed models that represent the geological and physical characteristics of the reservoir and seal system.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Geologic Characterization for CO 2 Storage with Enhanced Oil Recovery in Northern Michigan

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) was founded in 2003 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership initiative. Since its founding, MRCSP has made significant strides toward making CCUS a viable option for states in the region. The public/private consortium, funded through the DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Initiative, brings together nearly 40 industry partners and 10 states. Battelle, as the project lead, oversees research, development and operations and coordinates activities among the partners. The incremental, phased approach has built a valuable knowledge base for the industry and paved the way for commercial-scale adoption of CCUS technologies. From 2008 to 2020, MRCSP Phase III focused on the development of large-scale injection projects. This report is part of a series of reports prepared under the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) Phase III (Development Phase). These reports summarize and detail the findings of the work conducted under the Phase III project. This report compiles the results of geologic characterization of late-stage reefs, active EOR reefs, and new EOR reefs in the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend (NNPRT) in Michigan to demonstrate developed methodologies, geologic variability, and reservoir potential for CO 2 storage. Conducting CO 2 injection and monitoring in these settings provide significant insights for addressing the project objectives: assessment of injectivity in complex carbonate reef deposits; assessing CO 2 trapping mechanisms in a closed reservoir system; assessing any final oil recovery from transitional or residual oil zones in a field where CO 2 flooding is nearing completion; evaluating the transition from EOR to storage of CO 2 ; assessing regional commercialization; assessing new technologies for tracking CO 2 , brine, and oil movements underground; and monitoring options in a closed reservoir with oil, residual oil, and water zones.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗