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Methane emission hotspots in a boreal forest-fen mosaic potentially linked to deep taliks

Permafrost thaw is transforming boreal forests into mosaics of wetlands and drier uplands. Topographic controls on hydrological and ecological conditions impact methane (CH 4 ) fluxes, contributing to uncertainty in local and regional CH 4 budgets and underlying drivers. The objective of this study was to explore CH 4 fluxes and their drivers in a transitioning boreal forest-fen ecosystem (Goldstream Valley, Alaska, USA). This landscape is characterized by thawing discontinuous permafrost and heterogeneous mosaics of fens, collapse-scar channels, and small mounds of permafrost soils. From a survey in July 2021, observed chamber CH4 fluxes included fen areas with intermediate to very high emissions (29.8–635.3 mg CH 4 m −2 d −1 ), clustered locations with CH 4 uptake (−2.11 to −0.7 mg CH 4 m −2 d −1 ), and three anomalous emission hotspots (342.4–772.4 mg CH 4 m −2 d −1 ) that were located near samples with lower emissions. Some surface and near-surface variables partially explained the spatial variation in CH 4 flux. Log-transformed CH 4 flux had a positive linear relationship with soil moisture at 20 cm depth ( R 2 = 0.31, p -value < 1e-5) and negative linear relationships with microtopography ( R 2 = 0.13, p -value < 0.006) and slope ( R 2 = 0.28, p -value < 2e-5). Methane emissions generally occurred in flat, wet, graminoid-dominated fens, whereas CH 4 uptake occurred on permafrost mounds dominated by feather mosses and woody vegetation. However, the CH 4 hotspots occurred on drier, slightly sloped locations with low or undetectable near-surface methanogen abundance, suggesting that CH 4 was produced in deeper soils. When the hotspot samples were omitted, log-transformed CH 4 flux had a positive linear relationship with near-surface methanogen abundance ( R 2 = 0.29, p -value = 0.0023), and stronger linear relationships with soil moisture, slope, and soil macronutrient concentrations. Our findings suggest that some CH 4 emission hotspots could arise from CH 4 in deep taliks. The inference that methanogenesis occurs in deep taliks was strengthened by the identification of intrapermafrost taliks across the study area using low-frequency geophysical induction. This study assesses surface spatial heterogeneity in the context of subsurface permafrost conditions and highlights the complexity of CH 4 flux patterns in transitioning forest-wetland ecosystems. To better inform regional CH 4 budgets, further research is needed to understand the spatial distribution of terrestrial CH 4 hotspots and to resolve their surface, near-surface, and subsurface drivers.

boreal↗

High‐Resolution Direct Push NMR Tools for Groundwater Investigations

Abstract A small‐diameter nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) technology optimized for use with direct push (DP) and cone penetrometer test (CPT) drilling has been developed. The DP NMR tool can be deployed through 2.25‐in. diameter DP and CPT drilling rods allowing high‐resolution NMR logging measurements to be acquired during retraction of drill rods. DP NMR technology runs from a person‐portable battery‐powered control unit and provides significantly higher resolution in both the spatial (vertical) dimension and in the time domain of the NMR measurement than previously available NMR technology. In this study, we summarize the development of two different DP NMR tools and demonstrate their application at different sites within the United States. We believe that this technology can provide a leap forward in adoption of NMR technology for high‐resolution hydrological and geophysical investigations in groundwater resources and environmental remediation applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigating permafrost carbon dynamics in Alaska with artificial intelligence

Abstract Positive feedbacks between permafrost degradation and the release of soil carbon into the atmosphere impact land–atmosphere interactions, disrupt the global carbon cycle, and accelerate climate change. The widespread distribution of thawing permafrost is causing a cascade of geophysical and biochemical disturbances with global impacts. Currently, few earth system models account for permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) mechanisms. This research study integrates artificial intelligence (AI) tools and information derived from field-scale surveys across the tundra and boreal landscapes in Alaska. We identify and interpret the permafrost carbon cycling links and feedback sensitivities with GeoCryoAI, a hybridized multimodal deep learning (DL) architecture of stacked convolutionally layered, memory-encoded recurrent neural networks (NN). This framework integratesin-situmeasurements and flux tower observations for teacher forcing and model training. Preliminary experiments to quantify, validate, and forecast permafrost degradation and carbon efflux across Alaska demonstrate the fidelity of this data-driven architecture. More specifically, GeoCryoAI logs the ecological memory and effectively learns covariate dynamics while demonstrating an aptitude to simulate and forecast PCF dynamics—active layer thickness (ALT), carbon dioxide flux (CO 2 ), and methane flux (CH 4 )—with high precision and minimal loss (i.e. ALT RMSE : 1.327 cm [1969–2022]; CO 2 RMSE : 0.697µmolCO 2 m −2 s −1 [2003–2021]; CH 4 RMSE : 0.715 nmolCH 4 m −2 s −1 [2011–2022]). ALT variability is a sensitive harbinger of change, a unique signal characterizing the PCF, and our model is the first characterization of these dynamics across space and time.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Using Two-Stream Theory to Capture Fluctuations of Satellite-Perceived TOA SW Radiances Reflected from Clouds Over Ocean

Shortwave (SW) fluxes estimated from broadband radiometry rely on empirically gathered and hemispherically resolved fields of outgoing top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiances. This study aims to provide more accurate and precise fields of TOA SW radiances reflected from clouds over ocean by introducing a novel semiphysical model predicting radiances per narrow sun-observer geometry. This model was statistically trained using CERES-measured radiances paired with MODIS-retrieved cloud parameters as well as reanalysis-based geophysical parameters. By using radiative transfer approximations as a framework to ingest the above parameters, the new approach incorporates cloud-top effective radius and above-cloud water vapor in addition to traditionally used cloud optical depth, cloud fraction, cloud phase, and surface wind speed. A two-stream cloud albedo – serving to statistically incorporate cloud optical thickness and cloud-top effective radius – and Cox–Munk ocean reflectance were used to describe an albedo over each CERES footprint. Effective-radius-dependent asymmetry parameters were obtained empirically and separately for each viewing-illumination geometry. A simple equation of radiative transfer, with this albedo and attenuating above-cloud water vapor as inputs, was used in its log-linear form to allow for statistical optimization. We identified the two-stream functional form that minimized radiance residuals calculated against CERES observations and outperformed the state-of-the-art approach for most observer geometries outside the sun-glint and solar zenith angles between 20 and 70∘, reducing the median SD of radiance residuals per solar geometry by up to 13.2 % for liquid clouds, 1.9 % for ice clouds, and 35.8 % for footprints containing both cloud phases. Geometries affected by sun glint (constituting between 10 % and 1 % of the discretized upward hemisphere for solar zenith angles of 20 and 70∘, respectively), however, often showed weaker performance when handled with the new approach and had increased residuals by as much as 60 % compared to the state-of-the-art approach. Overall, uncertainties were reduced for liquid-phase and mixed-phase footprints by 5.76 % and 10.81 %, respectively, while uncertainties for ice-phase footprints increased by 0.34 %. Tested for a variety of scenes, we further demonstrated the plausibility of scene-wise predicted radiance fields. This new approach may prove useful when employed in angular distribution models and may result in improved flux estimates, in particular dealing with clouds characterized by small or large droplet/crystal sizes.

Two- stream theory↗

EGS Collab Experiment 2: Continuous Active Source Seismic Monitoring (CASSM)

The dataset contains continuous active-source seismic monitoring (CASSM) data collected during EGS Collab Experiment 2, conducted from February to September 2022 at the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, South Dakota. This experiment aimed to investigate enhanced geothermal systems through high-pressure fluid injections at depths of 1200-1500 meters. The seismic monitoring system included 16 three-component piezoelectric accelerometers and 24 hydrophones installed in boreholes around the injection zones, recording signals from piezoelectric seismic sources. Data were acquired using both continuous and triggered recording systems, with sampling rates of up to 100 kHz. The raw data are organized by timestamps and stored in .dat format, with accompanying log files. Calibration certificates for selected accelerometers are provided to aid in correcting sensor responses, though users are advised to consider possible effects of enclosures and installation on sensor performance. Users are strongly advised to consult the accompanying report, which outlines the experimental setup, data acquisition, sensor specifications, and recording systems.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Block encoding of the three-dimensional heterogeneous Poisson equation with application to fracture flow

Quantum linear system (QLS) algorithms offer the potential to solve large-scale linear systems exponentially faster than classical methods. However, applying QLS algorithms to real-world problems remains challenging due to issues such as state preparation, data loading, and efficient information extraction. In this work, we study the feasibility of applying QLS algorithms to solve discretized three-dimensional (3D) heterogeneous Poisson equations, with specific examples relating to groundwater flow through geologic fracture networks. We explicitly construct a block encoding for the 3D heterogeneous Poisson matrix by leveraging the sparse local structure of the discretized operator. While classical solvers benefit from preconditioning, we show that block encoding the system matrix and preconditioner separately does not improve the effective condition number that dominates the QLS run-time. This differs from classical approaches where the preconditioner and the system matrix can often be implemented independently. Nevertheless, due to the structure of the problem in three dimensions, the quantum algorithm achieves a run-time of 𝑂⁡(𝑁 2/3 polylog 𝑁 ⋅log (1/𝜖)), outperforming the best classical methods (with run times of 𝑂⁡(𝑁⁢log 𝑁 ⋅log (1/𝜖))) and offering exponential memory savings. These results highlight both the promise and limitations of QLS algorithms for practical scientific computing, and point to effective condition-number reduction as a key barrier in achieving quantum advantages.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Advancing subsurface analysis: Integrating computer vision and deep learning for the near real-time interpretation of borehole image logs in the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project

The accurate quantification and mapping of subsurface natural fracture systems using borehole imaging logs are critical for the success of CO 2 sequestration in geologic formations, optimization of engineered geothermal systems, and hydrocarbon production enhancement. However, traditional interpretation processes suffer from time-consuming procedures and human bias. To address these challenges and expedite fracture analysis, we investigated the application of integrated computer vision and DL workflows to automate image log analysis. Specifically, the design of our workflow was crafted to swiftly detect fractures and baffles by using actual electrical resistivity of borehole wall from microresistivity imaging device alongside their binary representation. This novel approach significantly reduces computational time while providing invaluable insights. By incorporating conventional logging and microseismic data, we present a regional subsurface natural fracture mapping technique. Through the minimization of human bias in image log analysis, our automated workflow achieves reduced fracture interpretation time and costs while ensuring robust and reproducible results. We demonstrated the efficacy of our approach by applying the workflow to the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project site. The automated workflow successfully identified major fractured zones, multiple baffles, and an interbedded layer with a high resolution of 0.01 ft or 0.12 in. (0.3 cm) and can be upscaled to any desired resolution. Validation through microseismic and image log interpretations allows for accurate and near-real-time mapping of fractures and baffles, significantly enhancing CO 2 pressure forecasting and postinjection site care. Our approach stands out due to its robustness, consistency, and reduced computational cost compared with alternative feature extraction technologies. It presents exciting possibilities for advancing CO 2 sequestration and engineered geothermal efforts by offering comprehensive and efficient fracture mapping solutions. This technology can contribute significantly to the optimization of CO 2 sequestration projects, facilitating sustainable environmental practices, and combating climate change.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

The Viscoplastic Behavior of Natural Hydrate‐Bearing Sandy‐Silts Under Uniaxial Strain Compression ( K 0 Loading)

Abstract The in‐situ stress state and geomechanical properties of hydrate‐bearing sediments impact hydrate formation and gas production strategies. We explore the uniaxial strain compression and stress evolution of natural hydrate‐bearing sandy‐silts from Green Canyon Block 955 in the deep‐water Gulf of Mexico. We performed constant rate of strain uniaxial strain experiments, interrupted by periods where we held the axial stress constant, to explore the vertical deformation and the evolution of the ratio of lateral to axial effective stress ( K 0 ) with time. The hydrate‐bearing sandy‐silt is stiffer and has a larger K 0 than the equivalent hydrate‐free sediment upon loading. During stress holds, the void ratio decreases sigmoidally with the log of time, and K 0 converges to isotropic conditions. We interpret that during loading, the hydrate bears the load and deforms. With time, the hydrate redistributes the load and K 0 increases. We used a viscoelastic model to describe the behavior. The model accurately captures deformation and K 0 trends but does not reproduce all the complex interactions of the hydrate with the porous skeleton. We anticipate that viscous effects within hydrate sediments will impact reservoir compression and stresses during production (hours to days), result in isotropic stress state over geological timescales, and explain the creeping movement in submarine landslides.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Detecting fractures and monitoring hydraulic fracturing processes at the first EGS Collab testbed using borehole DAS ambient noise

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) require cost-effective monitoring of fracture networks. We validate the capability of using borehole distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) ambient noise for fracture monitoring using core photos and core logs. The EGS Collab project has conducted 10 m scale field experiments of hydraulic fracture stimulation using 50–60 m deep experimental wells at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in Lead, South Dakota. The first EGS Collab testbed is located at 1616.67 m (4850 ft) depth at SURF and consists of one injection well, one production well, and six monitoring wells. All wells are drilled subhorizontally from an access tunnel called a drift. The project uses a single continuous fiber-optic cable installed sequentially in the six monitoring wells to record DAS data for monitoring hydraulic fracturing during stimulation. We analyze 60 s time records of the borehole DAS ambient noise data and compute the noise root-mean-square (rms) amplitude on each channel (points along the fiber cable) to obtain DAS ambient noise rms amplitude depth profiles along the monitoring wellbore. Our noise rms amplitude profiles indicate amplitude peaks at distinct depths. We compare the DAS noise rms amplitude profiles with borehole core photos and core logs and find that the DAS noise rms amplitude peaks correspond to the locations of fractures or lithologic changes indicated in the core photos or core logs. We then compute the hourly DAS noise rms amplitude profiles in two monitoring wells during three stimulation cycles in 72 h and find that the DAS noise rms amplitude profiles vary with time, indicating the fracture opening/growth or closing during the hydraulic stimulation. Our results demonstrate that borehole DAS passive ambient noise can be used to detect fractures and monitor fracturing processes in EGS reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Upper Limits on the Isotropic Gravitational-Wave Background from Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo's Third Observing Run

We report results of a search for an isotropic gravitational-wave background (GWB) using data from Advanced LIGO's and Advanced Virgo's third observing run (O3) combined with upper limits from the earlier O1 and O2 runs. Unlike in previous observing runs in the advanced detector era, we include Virgo in the search for the GWB. The results of the search are consistent with uncorrelated noise, and therefore we place upper limits on the strength of the GWB. We find that the dimensionless energy density Ω(sub GW) ≤ 5.8 × 10(exp -9) at the 95% credible level for a at (frequency-independent) GWB, using a prior which is uniform in the log of the strength of the GWB, with 99% of the sensitivity coming from the band 20-76.6 Hz; Ω(sub GW)(f) ≤ 3.4 × 10(exp -9) at 25 Hz for a power-law GWB with a spectral index of 2/3 (consistent with expectations for compact binary coalescences), in the band 20-90.6 Hz; and Ω(sub GW)(f) ≤ 3.9 × 10(exp -10) at 25 Hz for a spectral index of 3, in the band 20-291.6 Hz. These upper limits improve over our previous results by a factor of 6.0 for a at GWB, 8.8 for a spectral index of 2/3, and 13.1 for a spectral index of 3. We also search for a GWB arising from scalar and vector modes, which are predicted by alternative theories of gravity; we do not find evidence of these, and place upper limits on the strength of GWBs with these polarizations. We demonstrate that there is no evidence of correlated noise of magnetic origin by performing a Bayesian analysis that allows for the presence of both a GWB and an effective magnetic background arising from geophysical Schumann resonances. We compare our upper limits to a fiducial model for the GWB from the merger of compact binaries, updating the model to use the most recent data-driven population inference from the systems detected during O3a. Finally, we combine our results with observations of individual mergers and show that, at design sensitivity, this joint approach may yield stronger constraints on the merger rate of binary black holes at z ≳ 2 than can be achieved with individually resolved mergers alone.

Ryan Abbott↗

Carbon Solubility in Silicon-Iron-Bearing Metals during Core Formation on Mercury

Recent results obtained from the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft showed the surface of Mercury has high S abundances (approximately 4 wt%) and low Iron(II) Oxide abundances (less than 2 wt%). Based on these extreme values, the oxygen fugacity of Mercury's surface materials was estimated to be approximately 3 to 7 log(sub 10) units below the IW buffer (Delta IW-3 to Delta IW-7). This highly reducing nature of the planet has resulted in a large core and relatively thin mantle, extending to only approximately 420 km depth (corresponding to a core-mantle boundary pressure of approximately 4-7 GPa) within the planet. Furthermore, MESSENGER results have suggested the presence of carbon on the surface of the planet. Previous experimental results from have also suggested the possibility of a primary floatation crust on Mercury composed of graphite, produced after a global magma ocean event. With these exotic conditions of this compositional end-member planet, it begs the question, what is the core composition of Mercury? Although no definitive conclusion has been reached, previous studies have made advances towards answering this question. Riner et al. and Chen et al. looked at iron sulfide systems and implemented various crystallization and layered core scenarios to try and determine the composition and structure of Mercury's core. Malavergne et al. examined core crystallization scenarios in the presence of sulfur and silicon. Hauck et al. used the most recent geophysical constraints from the MESSENGER spacecraft to model the internal structure of Mercury, including the core, in a iron-sulfur-silicon system. More recently, Chabot et al. conducted a series of metal-silicate partitioning experiments in a iron-sulfur-silicon system. These results showed the core of Mercury has the potential to contain more than 15 wt% silicon. However, with the newest results from MESSENGER's low altitude campaign, carbon is another potential light element that could be incorporated into Mercury's core. The goal of this study is to determine the carbon concentration at graphite saturation in various silicon-iron bearing metals relevant to possible mercurian core compositions. Future experiments will include the addition of sulfur into these metals.

Vander Kaaden, Kathleen E.↗

Gas hydrate petroleum systems: What constitutes the “seal”?

The gas hydrate petroleum system (GHPS) approach, which has been used to characterize gas hydrates in nature, uses three distinct components: a methane source, a methane migration pathway, and a reservoir that not only contains gas hydrate, but also acts as a seal to prevent methane loss. Unlike GHPS, a traditional petroleum system (PS) approach further distinguishes between the reservoir, a unit with generally coarser sediment grains, and a separate overlying seal unit with generally finer sediment grains. Adopting this traditional PS distinction in the GHPS approach facilitates assessments of reservoir growth and production potential. The significance of the seal for the formation of a gas hydrate reservoir as well as for efficiency in methane extraction from the reservoir as an energy resource is evident in findings from recent offshore field expeditions, such as India’s second National Gas Hydrate Program expedition (NGHP-02). In regard to gas hydrate-bearing reservoir formations, the NGHP-02 gas chemistry data indicate a primarily microbial methane source. Fine-grained seal sediment in contact with coarser grained reservoir sediment can facilitate that microbial methane production. Logging-while-drilling and sediment core data also indicate that the overlying fine-grained seal sediment is less permeable than the underlying, highly gas hydrate-saturated reservoir sediment. The overlying seal’s capacity to act as a low-permeability boundary is important not only for preventing methane migration out of the reservoir over time, but also for preventing water invasion into the reservoir during methane extraction from the reservoir. Ultimately, the presence of an overlying, fine-grained, low-permeability “seal” influences how gas hydrate initially forms in a coarse-grained reservoir and dictates how efficiently methane can be extracted as an energy resource from the gas hydrate reservoir via depressurization.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Shallow EGS Regional Resource Potential and Map - Snake River Plain

SMU Geothermal Lab developed a methodology to estimate shallow (1 km to 4 km) Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) resource potential using an approach that utilizes recent geology and geophysical research along with new well data to improve the thermal conductivity model, mitigate impacts from groundwater flow in the thermal model, and examine radioactivity data variations. By incorporating the results of the most recent projects with the SMU shallow methodology, we developed a more accurate, updated resource estimate for the Snake River Plain (SRP). The resulting maps and resource estimates can be used by the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL), Bureau of Land Management (BLM), and the public to determine how best to move forward with future project development.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Characterizing the uppermost 100 m structure of the San Jacinto fault zone southeast of Anza, California, through joint analysis of geological, topographic, seismic and resistivity data

We present results from complementary geological, topographic, seismic and electrical resistivity surveys at the Sagebrush Flat (SGB) site along the Clark fault (CF) strand of the San Jacinto fault zone trifurcation area southeast of Anza, California. Joint interpretation of these data sets, each with unique spatiotemporal sensitivities, allow us to better characterize the shallow (<100 m) fault zone at this structurally complex site. Geological mapping at the surface shows the CF has three main subparallel strands within a <100 m zone with varying degrees of rock damage. These strands intersect units of banded gneiss and tonalite, and various sedimentary units. Near the surface, the weathered but more intact tonalite and gneiss to the southwest have relatively high VP. The low-lying flat sedimentary basins around the two southwestern-most CF strands and elevated damaged gneiss to the northeast have lowest VP <500 m s–1. The high relief of the northeast gneiss unit may in part be explained by its extensive damage and inferred increased relative rock uplift. Resistivity imaging shows the unconsolidated dry basin sediments (maximum >1300 Ohm.m) contrasted against the compacted fine-grained (potentially wet) materials within the CF core and the Bautista Formation (minimum <40 Ohm.m), which is slightly elevated above the flat basins. The inverse relationship between VP (increases) and resistivity (decreases) in the uppermost ~15 m can be characterized as log–log linear with slopes of –2.6 to –4. At depths >30 m, the velocity heterogeneity near the surface merges into larger-scale structures that are generally slower on the northeast side of the CF core compared to the southwest side (as much as ~40 per cent reduction in average VP). A previous study revealed a 20–37 per cent variability in peak ground velocities across the SGB site from local earthquakes. The upper end of that range is associated with the near-surface unconsolidated sedimentary basins and northeast damaged gneiss unit. Preliminary analysis of time-dependent topography mostly shows effects of changing vegetation and anthropogenic activity.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

The effect of composition, temperature and pressure on the oxidation state and coordination environment of copper in silicate melts

Copper is a redox variable element that may occur as Cu 0 , Cu + , and Cu 2+ in the Earth’s crust. The oxidation state will affect its partitioning between coexisting minerals, melts and fluids and hence its behaviour in magmatic processes. Copper bearing silicate glasses were quenched from melts with 23 synthetic compositions (19 CaO-Na 2 O-MgO-Al 2 O 3 -SiO 2 (CNMAS), two “granites” containing K 2 O ± H 2 O, and Fe-bearing “MORB” and “andesite”) equilibrated at oxygen fugacities (fO 2 ), expressed in log units relative to the fayalite-magnetite-quartz (FMQ) buffer, ranging from −0.7 to 14, temperatures from 900 to 1500 °C and pressures from 0 to 2.5 GPa. Cu K-edge X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) spectra were recorded from the glasses and a pre-edge feature in the XANES spectra was found to scale with the proportion of Cu + . Cu + /ΣCu (where ΣCu = Cu + + Cu 2+ ) was quantified by fitting the intensity of the pre-edge feature as a function of fO 2 to the thermodynamically expected relationship. Cu + /ΣCu was found to only weakly depend on melt composition, with more basic melts (e.g., basalts rather than granites) preferentially stabilising Cu 2+ . Increasing temperature stabilises Cu + , while increasing pressure had little effect on Cu + /ΣCu in CNMAS melts but preferentially stabilised Cu 2+ in granite melts. Cu + /ΣCu can be predicted in silicate melts by the empirical equation: log(Cu 2+ /Cu + ) = 0.25(ΔFMQ + 8.58 − 25050/T + 940P/T – 0.02P) − 4.73 + 5400/T + 1.99Λ + (280P – 90P2) where T is temperature in K, P is pressure in GPa and is the optical basicity of the composition. The effects of fO 2 , melt composition, temperature and pressure on Cu + /ΣCu indicate that Cu + will be the dominant oxidation state in terrestrial silicate melts (e.g., Cu + /ΣCu = 99% in an andesitic melt at 900 °C, 1 GPa and ΔFMQ = 1). The electron exchange reaction Cu 2+ + Fe 2+ → Cu + + Fe 3+ occurs on cooling and, given the abundance of Fe in natural melts, the oxidation state of Cu in natural glasses is unlikely to correspond to that in the original melt.

Copper↗

Improving Subsurface Stress Characterization for Carbon Dioxide Storage Projects by Incorporating Machine Learning Techniques

The overall objective of this project is to develop a framework for reliable characterization and prediction of the state of stress in the overburden and underburden (including the basement) in CO 2 storage reservoirs using machine learning and integrated geomechanics and geophysical methods. Specifically, we propose to develop workflow encompassing of technologies and/or methods to predict stress and pressure changes due to CO 2 injection in an active tertiary recovery site and their impacts on subtle fault activation, fractures and occurrence of microseismic events and compare responses to field observations. In this project, we anticipate using dataset from the Farnsworth field Unit (FWU) which is operated by Purdure Petroleum. A novel elastic-waveform VSP inversion technique will be used to estimate high-resolution spatial and temporal changes of elastic moduli in CO 2 storage reservoirs, which will be combined with velocity-stress relationship derived from laboratory tests to obtain subsurface pressure and stress. Clustered microseismic data will be jointly inverted for improved focal mechanisms. Least-squares reverse-time migration of microseismic waveform data will be performed to directly image fracture/fault zones. Additionally, a deep neural network machine learning technique with convolutional and recurrent layers will be used for learning the spectro-temporal structures in microseismic waveforms. The results of this geotechnical data analysis will be integrated to develop a high-resolution 3D mechanical earth model extending from the overburden sealing formations to the underburden including the basement. Mechanical properties will be derived through integration of mechanical logs, tests, available results from chemo-mechanical laboratory tests, and elastic inversion of seismic data using a combination of Bayesian and stochastic methods as well as machine learning technique. Failure features (faults/fractures) will be represented and/or modeled based on seismic and core data analysis. A transient hydrodynamic-geomechanical model will be developed through coupling with the calibrated FWU reservoir simulation model. The full physics coupled model will be used to train a reduced order proxy model using machine learning algorithm for estimating stress which will then be used with appropriate constitutive relationships and forward seismological models to simulate pressure changes and induced microseismicity. An advanced optimization framework will be developed to perform a history match to minimize error between field observations and simulated. The history matched proxy model will be verified against the full-physics equivalent. The field observations that will be used in the coupled model calibration process include pressure/stress inverted from VSP, moment magnitude from microseismic analysis, real time downhole pressure measurements, production and injection data. Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis will be performed to characterize the impact of model parameter uncertainty on stress estimates. The proposed project will have significant impact on future field implementation of the proposed technology. Because the project field site is an ongoing CO 2 EOR development, the value of the new technology will be demonstrated in an operational context and evaluated as a viable risk mitigation strategy. Cost/benefit will be evaluated together with the various commercial incentives for CO 2 sequestration available to oil and gas operators. The extensive available dataset and ongoing data acquisition under the SWP Phase III work plan provides flexibility for investigation of multiple approaches and reduces technical risk.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Persistent, “Mysterious” Seismoacoustic Signals Reported in Oklahoma State during 2019

Here, we report on the source of seismoacoustic pulses that were observed across the state of Oklahoma (OK) during summer of 2019, and the subject of national media coverage and speculation. Seismic network data collected across four U.S. states and interviews with witnesses to the pulse’s effect on residential structures demonstrate that they were triggered by routine ammunition disposal operations conducted by McAlester Army Ammunition Plant (McAAP). During these operations, conventional explosives destroy obsolete munitions stored in pits through a controlled sequence of electronically timed shots that occur over tens of minutes. Despite noise-abatement efforts that reduce coupling of acoustic energy with air, some lower frequency, subaudible (infrasonic) sound radiates from these shots as discrete pulses. We use nine months of blast log documents, seismic network records, analyst picks, and physical modeling to demonstrate that seismic stations as far as 640 km from McAAP sample these pulses, which record seasonal patterns in stratospheric and tropospheric winds, as well as the dynamic formation of waveguides and shadow zones. Digital short-term average to long-term average detectors that we augment with dynamic thresholds and time-binning operations identify these pulses with a fair probability, when compared with visual observations. Our analyses thereby provide estimates of observation rates for both partial and full sequences of these pulses, as well as single shots. We suggest that disposal operations can exploit existing, composite seismic networks to predict where residents are likely to witness blasting. Crucially, our data also show that dense seismic networks can record multiscale atmospheric processes in the absence of infrasound arrays.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗