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At least 91 records · Page 5

Impact of biomass burning aerosols on radiation, clouds, and precipitation over the Amazon: relative importance of aerosol–cloud and aerosol–radiation interactions

Biomass burning (BB) aerosols can influence regional and global climate through interactions with radiation, clouds, and precipitation. Here, we investigate the impact of BB aerosols on the energy balance and hydrological cycle over the Amazon Basin during the dry season. We performed simulations with a fully coupled meteorology–chemistry model, the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), for a range of different BB emission scenarios to explore and characterize nonlinear effects and individual contributions from aerosol–radiation interactions (ARIs) and aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs). The ARIs of BB aerosols tend to suppress low-level liquid clouds by local warming and increased evaporation and to facilitate the formation of high-level ice clouds by enhancing updrafts and condensation at high altitudes. In contrast, the ACIs of BB aerosol particles tend to enhance the formation and lifetime of low-level liquid clouds by providing more cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and to suppress the formation of high-level ice clouds by reducing updrafts and condensable water vapor at high altitudes (>8 km). For scenarios representing the lower and upper limits of BB emission estimates for recent years (2002–2016), we obtained total regional BB aerosol radiative forcings of –0.2 and 1.5 W m –2 , respectively, showing that the influence of BB aerosols on the regional energy balance can range from modest cooling to strong warming. We find that ACIs dominate at low BB emission rates and low aerosol optical depth (AOD), leading to an increased cloud liquid water path (LWP) and negative radiative forcing, whereas ARIs dominate at high BB emission rates and high AOD, leading to a reduction of LWP and positive radiative forcing. In all scenarios, BB aerosols led to a decrease in the frequency of occurrence and rate of precipitation, caused primarily by ACI effects at low aerosol loading and by ARI effects at high aerosol loading. The dependence of precipitation reduction on BB aerosol loading is greater in a strong convective regime than under weakly convective conditions. Overall, our results show that ACIs tend to saturate at high aerosol loading, whereas the strength of ARIs continues to increase and plays a more important role in highly polluted episodes and regions. This should hold not only for BB aerosols over the Amazon, but also for other light-absorbing aerosols such as fossil fuel combustion aerosols in industrialized and densely populated areas. The importance of ARIs at high aerosol loading highlights the need for accurately characterizing aerosol optical properties in the investigation of aerosol effects on clouds, precipitation, and climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Distinct responses of Asian summer monsoon to black carbon aerosols and greenhouse gases

Black carbon (BC) aerosols emitted from natural and anthropogenic sources induce positive radiative forcing and global warming, which in turn significantly affect the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). However, many aspects of the BC effect on the ASM remain elusive and largely inconsistent among previous studies, which is strongly dependent on different low-level thermal feedbacks over the Asian continent and the surrounding ocean. This study examines the response of the ASM to BC forcing in comparison with the effect of doubled greenhouse gases (GHGs) by analyzing the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) simulations under an extremely high BC level (10 times modern global BC emissions or concentrations, labeled BC×10) from nine global climate models (GCMs). The results show that although BC and GHGs both enhance the ASM precipitation minus evaporation (P–E; a 13.6 % increase for BC forcing and 12.1 % for GHGs from the nine-model ensemble, respectively), there exists a much larger uncertainty in changes in ASM P–E induced by BC than by GHGs. The summer P–E is increased by 7.7 % to 15.3 % due to these two forcings over three subregions, including East Asian, South Asian and western North Pacific monsoon regions. Further analysis of moisture budget reveals distinct mechanisms controlling the increases in ASM P–E induced by BC and GHGs. The change in ASM P–E by BC is dominated by the dynamic effect due to the enhanced large-scale monsoon circulation, whereas the GHG-induced change is dominated by the thermodynamic effect through increasing atmospheric water vapor. Radiative forcing of BC significantly increases the upper-level atmospheric temperature over the Asian region to enhance the upper-level meridional land–sea thermal gradient (MLOTG), resulting in a northward shift of the upper-level subtropical westerly jet and an enhancement of the low-level monsoon circulation, whereas radiative forcing of GHGs significantly increases the tropical upper-level temperature, which reduces the upper-level MLOTG and suppresses the low-level monsoonal circulation. Hence, our results indicate a different mechanism of BC climate effects under the extremely high BC level: that BC forcing significantly enhances the upper-level atmospheric temperature over the Asian region, determining ASM changes, instead of low-level thermal feedbacks as indicated by previous studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Distinct responses of Asian summer monsoon to black carbon aerosols and greenhouse gases

Black carbon (BC) aerosols emitted from natural and anthropogenic sources induce positive radiative forcing and global warming, which in turn significantly affect the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). However, many aspects of the BC effect on ASM remain elusive and largely inconsistent among previous studies, which is strongly dependent on different low-level thermal feedbacks over the Asian continent and the surrounding ocean. This study examines the response of ASM to BC forcing in comparison with the effect of doubled greenhouse gases (GHGs) by analyzing the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) simulations under an extreme high BC level (10 times modern global BC emissions or concentrations, labeled by BC $\times$ 10) from nine global climate models (GCMs). The results show that although BC and GHGs both enhance the ASM precipitation minus evaporation (P–E) (a 13.6 % increase for BC forcing and 12.1 % for GHGs from the nine-model ensemble, respectively), there exists a much larger uncertainty in changes in ASM P–E induced by BC than by GHGs. The summer P–E is increased by 7.7 % to 15.3 % due to these two forcings over three sub-regions including East Asian, South Asian, and western North Pacific monsoon regions. Further analysis of moisture budget reveals distinct mechanisms controlling the increases in ASM P–E induced by BC and GHGs. The change in ASM P–E by BC is dominated by the dynamic effect due to the enhanced large-scale monsoon circulation, whereas the GHG-induced change is dominated by the thermodynamic effect through increasing atmospheric water vapor. Radiative forcing of BC significantly increases the upper-level atmospheric temperature over the Asian region to enhance the upper-level meridional land-sea thermal gradient (MLOTG), resulting in a northward shift of the upper-level subtropical westerly jet and an enhancement of the low-level monsoon circulation; whereas radiative forcing of GHGs significantly increases the tropical upper-level temperature, which reduces the upper-level MLOTG and suppresses the low-level monsoonal circulation. Hence, our results indicate a different mechanism of BC climate effects under the extreme high BC level, that BC forcing significantly enhances the upper-level atmospheric temperature over the Asian region, determining ASM changes, instead of low-level thermal feedbacks as indicated by previous studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying Carbon Cycle Extremes and Attributing Their Causes Under Climate and Land Use and Land Cover Change From 1850 to 2300

The increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) mole fraction affects global climate through radiative (trapping longwave radiation) and physiological effects (reduction of plant transpiration). We use the simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1-BGC) forced with Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 to investigate climate-vegetation feedbacks from 1850 to the year 2300. Human-induced land use and land cover change (LULCC), through biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes, alter the climate and modify photosynthetic activity. The changing characteristics of extreme anomalies in photosynthesis, referred to as carbon cycle extremes, increase the uncertainty of terrestrial ecosystems to act as a net carbon sink. However, the role of LULCC in altering carbon cycle extremes under business-as-usual (continuously rising) CO 2 emissions is unknown. Here we show that LULCC magnifies the intensity, frequency, and extent of carbon cycle extremes, resulting in a net reduction in expected photosynthetic activity in the future. We found that large temporally contiguous negative carbon cycle extremes are due to a persistent decrease in soil moisture, which is triggered by declines in precipitation. With LULCC and global warming, vegetation exhibits increased vulnerability to hot and dry environmental conditions, increasing the frequency of fire events and resulting in considerable losses in photosynthetic activity. While most regions show strengthening of negative carbon cycle extremes, a few locations show a weakening effect driven by declining vegetation cover or benign climate conditions for photosynthesis. Increasing hot, dry, and fire-driven carbon cycle extremes are essential for improving carbon cycle modeling and estimation of ecosystem responses to LULCC and rising CO 2 mole fractions. Moreover, large aberrations in vegetation productivity represent potential and growing threats to human lives, wildlife, and food security.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis

The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane (CH 4 ) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing CH 4 and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Resolving Low Cloud Feedbacks Globally With E3SM High‐Res MMF: Agreement With LES but Stronger Shortwave Effects

This study investigates low cloud feedback in a warmer climate using global simulations from the High-Resolution Multi-scale Modeling Framework (HR-MMF), which explicitly simulates small-scale eddies globally. Two 5-year simulations—one with present-day sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and a second with SSTs warmed uniformly by 4 K—reveal a positive global shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE = 0.3 W/m 2 /K), comparable to estimates from CMIP models. As the climate warms, significant reductions in low cloud cover occur over stratocumulus regions. This study is the first attempt to compare HR-MMF results with predictions from idealized large-eddy simulations from the CGILS intercomparison. Despite different underlying assumptions, we find qualitative agreement in SWCRE and inversion height changes between HR-MMF and CGILS predictions. This suggests reasonable credibility for the CGILS framework in predicting cloud responses under the out-of-sample conditions found in HR-MMF. However, the HR-MMF exhibits stronger SWCRE changes than predicted by CGILS. We explore potential causes for this discrepancy, examining variations in cloud-controlling factors (CCFs) and cloud conditions. Our results show a fairly homogeneous SWCRE response, with little systematic variation tied to the variations in CCFs. This reveals a dominant role for SST forcing in modulating SWCRE.

boundary-layer clouds↗

Chemical and structural characterization of particulate fallout isolated from air-filters

We report particulate nuclear fallout is the radioactive byproduct of a nuclear event formed by the mixture of proximate environmental materials with vaporized bomb debris. The fallout debris can be transported into the atmosphere during cloud rise, raining out locally and dispersing globally constituting a radiation hazard and contributing to the distribution of anthropogenic radionuclides in the environment. Questions remain on how entrainment of environmental material in the fireball affects fallout formation processes and radionuclide incorporation and distribution during cooling. To inform the characterization of fallout including the development of fallout size distributions and how radionuclides are incorporated into fallout debris where entrainment plays a role, we analyzed an archived historic US air-filter collected by aircraft in the aftermath of ground interacting nuclear tests. Particulate fallout collected on the filter was isolated and analyzed using scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and NanoSIMS (Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry) to determine chemistry, structure, morphology, and size of the particles. Results demonstrate that the particles isolated from the filter have spherical shape, display complex internal structures, and are mainly composed of Fe and Si oxides. In these spherical particles, Pu is preferentially associated with Fe-rich composition. The characterization of fallout particulate samples can provide information on nucleation and particle growth from the vapor phase to improve modeling and simulation of fallout hazards.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Sensitivity of the Arctic Sea Ice Cover to the Summer Surface Scattering Layer

Here, the ‘surface scattering layer’ (SSL) is the highly-scattering, coarse-grained ice layer that forms on the surface of melting, drained sea ice during spring and summer. Ice of sufficient thickness with an SSL has an observed persistent broadband albedo of ~0.65, resulting in a strong influence on the regional solar partitioning. Experiments during the MOSAiC expedition showed that the SSL re-forms in approximately one day following manual removal. Coincident spectral albedo measurements provide insight into the SSL evolution, where albedo increased on sunny days with higher solar insolation. Comparison with experiments in radiative transfer and global climate models show that the sea ice albedo is greatly impacted by the SSL thickness. The presence of SSL is a significant component of the ice-albedo feedback, with an albedo impact of the same order as melt ponds. Changes in SSL and implications for Arctic sea ice within a warming climate are uncertain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Changing windstorm characteristics over the US Northeast in a single model large ensemble

Abstract Extreme windstorms pose a significant hazard to infrastructure and public safety, particularly in the highly populated US Northeast (NE). However, the influence climate change and changing land use will have on these events remains unclear. A large ensemble generated using the Max-Planck Institute (MPI) Earth system model is used to generate projections of NE windstorms under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and to attribute changes to projected land use land cover (LULC) change, externally forced changes and internal climate variability. To reduce the influence of coarse grid cell resolution and uncertainties in surface roughness lengths, windstorms are identified using simultaneous widespread exceedance of local 99th percentile 10 m wind speeds (U 99 ). Projected declines in forest cover in the NE and the resulting reductions in surface roughness length under SSP3-7.0 lead to projections of large increases in U 99 and derived windstorm intensity and scale. However, these projected changes in regional LULC under SSP3-7.0 are unprecedented in a historical context and may not be realistic. After corrections are applied to remove the influence of LULC on wind speeds, regionally averaged U 99 exhibit declines for most of the single model initial-condition large ensemble (SMILE) members which are broadly proportional to the radiative forcing and global air temperature increase in the SSPs, with a median value of −0.15 ms −1 °C −1 . While weak cyclones are projected to decline in frequency in the NE, intense cyclones and the resulting windstorms and indices of socioeconomic loss do not. Where present, significant trends in these loss indices are positive, and some MPI SMILE members generate future windstorms that are unprecedented in the historical period.

Coburn, Jacob (ORCID:0000000309538117)↗

Characterization, Chemistry, and Particle Size Distribution of Fallout Particles Isolated from Filter Samples

Nuclear particulate fallout is the radioactive byproduct of a nuclear event formed by the mixture of proximate environmental materials with vaporized bomb debris. The debris can be transported into the atmosphere during cloud rise, raining out locally and globally constituting a radiation hazard. Questions remain on how entrainment of environmental material in the fireball affects fallout formation processes and radionuclide incorporation during cooling.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Properties and Controlling Processes of Aerosol and Cloud Condensation Nuclei in Marine Boundary Layer Over Eastern North Atlantic (Final Report)

Remote marine low cloud systems have large spatial and temporal coverages. Because of their relatively low optical thickness and background aerosol concentrations, marine low clouds are particularly susceptible to perturbations in aerosols associated with anthropogenic emissions. Recent studies show that a large fraction of the global aerosol indirect forcing can be attributed to changes in marine low clouds, despite their relatively long distance from most anthropogenic sources. Currently, there remain large uncertainties in the magnitude of the global aerosol indirect radiative forcing. One major contribution to this large uncertainty derives from poor understanding of the aerosols under natural conditions, the perturbation by anthropogenic emissions, and the processes that drive them. In this project, we took advantage of the comprehensive, multi-dimensional characterization of meteorological parameters, trace gases, aerosol, cloud, and drizzle fields during the Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) and the long-term measurements at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site on Graciosa Island. By synergistically combining in situ measurements, remote sensing retrievals, and model simulations, we quantified aerosol properties in the ENA, their vertical profiles, and variations with season, synoptic state, and airmass. We investigated key aerosol processes, including entrainment of free troposphere aerosol into marine boundary layer, new particle formation, growth of Aitken mode particles, and the influences of these processes on the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) population in marine boundary layer. The representation of key aerosol processes in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) was evaluated using the observations. This project has led to 26 publications, which are listed at the end of this report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SAF combustion and contrail formation research [Slides]

Sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) offer an effective pathway to decarbonize the aviation sector, which accounts for about 5% of the global net effective radiative forcing, and is expected to double in the next two decades. A primary objective of the SAF GC Roadmap is to develop sustainable fuels that avoid “sooting, aerosols, and other contributors to vapor trail emissions." Another parts of this project is motivated by ongoing efforts to develop aromatic-free SAFs by using cycloalkanes to match seal swell characteristics of current fossil-based jet fuel (e.g. Jet A).

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

The Role of Strong Magnetic Fields in Stabilizing Highly Luminous Thin Disks

Abstract We present and analyze a set of three-dimensional, global, general relativistic radiation magnetohydrodynamic simulations of thin, radiation-pressure-dominated accretion disks surrounding a nonrotating, stellar-mass black hole. The simulations are initialized using the Shakura–Sunyaev model with a mass accretion rate of M ̇ = 3 L Edd / c 2 (corresponding to L = 0.17 L Edd ). Our previous work demonstrated that such disks are thermally unstable when accretion is driven by an α -viscosity. In the present work, we test the hypothesis that strong magnetic fields can both drive accretion through magnetorotational instability and restore stability to such disks. We test four initial magnetic field configurations: (1) a zero-net-flux case with a single, radially extended set of magnetic field loops (dipole), (2) a zero-net-flux case with two radially extended sets of magnetic field loops of opposite polarity stacked vertically (quadrupole), (3) a zero-net-flux case with multiple radially concentric rings of alternating polarity (multiloop), and (4) a net-flux, vertical magnetic field configuration (vertical). In all cases, the fields are initially weak, with a gas-to-magnetic pressure ratio ≳100. Based on the results of these simulations, we find that the dipole and multiloop configurations remain thermally unstable like their α -viscosity counterpart, in our case collapsing vertically on the local thermal timescale and never fully recovering. The vertical case, on the other hand, stabilizes and remains so for the duration of our tests (many thermal timescales). The quadrupole case is intermediate, showing signs of both stability and instability. The key stabilizing factor is the ability of specific field configurations to build up and sustain strong, P mag ≳ 0.5 P tot , toroidal fields near the midplane of the disk. We discuss the reasons why certain configurations are able to do this effectively and others are not. We then compare our stable simulations to the standard Shakura–Sunyaev disk.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Retrieving microphysical properties of concurrent pristine ice and snow using polarimetric radar observations

Abstract. Ice and mixed-phase clouds play a key role in our climate system because of their strong controls on global precipitation and radiation budget. Their microphysical properties have been characterized commonly by polarimetric radar measurements. However, there remains a lack of robust estimates of microphysical properties of concurrent pristine ice and aggregates because larger snow aggregates often dominate the radar signal and mask contributions of smaller pristine ice crystals. This paper presents a new method that separates the scattering signals of pristine ice embedded in snow aggregates in scanning polarimetric radar observations and retrieves their respective abundances and sizes for the first time. This method, dubbed ENCORE-ice, is built on an iterative stochastic ensemble retrieval framework. It provides the number concentration, ice water content, and effective mean diameter of pristine ice and snow aggregates with uncertainty estimates. Evaluations against synthetic observations show that the overall retrieval biases in the combined total microphysical properties are within 5 % and that the errors with respect to the truth are well within the retrieval uncertainty. The partitioning between pristine ice and snow aggregates also agrees well with the truth. Additional evaluations against in situ cloud probe measurements from a recent campaign for a stratiform cloud system are promising. Our median retrievals have a bias of 98 % in the total ice number concentration and 44 % in the total ice water content. This performance is generally better than the retrieval from empirical relationships. The ability to separate signals of different ice species and to provide their quantitative microphysical properties will open up many research opportunities, such as secondary ice production studies and model evaluations for ice microphysical processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bias Correction and Statistical Downscaling of Solar Radiation Using NA-CORDEX and the NSRDB

The current state-of-art for estimating long-term PV production uses long-term estimates of solar radiation variables, such as global horizontal irradiance (GHI), from previous years. This data is used in models such as the System Advisor Model (SAM) or PYSyst to predict annual production for a PV plant. This information is then used to estimate the production over the next 20 years (a typical plant lifetime) under the assumption that the variability over the current period is representative of the future. As the PV industry moves to extend plant lifetimes to 50 years the current assumptions of representativeness of weather may not be appropriate. This is especially true as our climate changes rapidly. To assess long-term PV production, future projections for solar radiation based on projected carbon emissions are readily available in regional and global climate models. However, climate model projections contain inherent biases that may need to be corrected for accurate analysis of future projections of climate variables. Several studies have analyzed projections of solar radiation for future years, however the accuracy of the model output compared to current and historic data has not been widely studied. Chen (2021) showed that available climate models do not accurately represent solar radiation in some cases, over-projecting GHI at the surface while under-projecting its obstructions, such as clouds and aerosols. This works aims to (1) increase understanding of the accuracy of solar radiation currently available in global and regional climate models and (2) implement bias correction through linear models based on reanalysis data compared to observed solar radiation. The latter aim will be conducted using available observed solar radiation data and modeled data from several regional climate models (RCMs). The bias correction method will be applied to projections of solar radiation resulting in a more accurate representation of the future of solar production.

climate data↗

Global Simulations of Gravitational Instability in Protostellar Disks with Full Radiation Transport. I. Stochastic Fragmentation with Optical-depth-dependent Rate and Universal Fragment Mass

Fragmentation in a gravitationally unstable accretion disk can be an important pathway for forming stellar/planetary companions. To characterize quantitatively the condition for and outcome of fragmentation under realistic thermodynamics, we perform global 3D simulations of gravitationally unstable disks at various cooling rates and cooling types, including the first global simulations of gravitational instability that employ full radiation transport. We find that fragmentation is a stochastic process, with the fragment generation rate per disk area p frag showing an exponential dependence on the parameter β ≡ Ω K t cool , where Ω K is the Keplerian rotation frequency, and t cool is the average cooling timescale. Compared to a prescribed constant β, radiative cooling in the optically thin/thick regime makes p frag decrease slower/faster in β; the critical β corresponding to ∼1 fragment per orbit is ≈3, 5, and 2 for constant β, optically thin, and optically thick cooling, respectively. The distribution function of the initial fragment mass is remarkably insensitive to disk thermodynamics. Regardless of cooling rate and optical depth, the typical initial fragment mass is m frag ≈ 40M tot h 3 , with M tot being the total (star+disk) mass and h = H/R being the disk aspect ratio. Applying this result to typical Class 0/I protostellar disks, we find m frag ∼ 20M J , suggesting that fragmentation more likely forms brown dwarfs. Given the finite width of the m frag distribution, forming massive planets is also possible.

gravitational instability↗