Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “global significance”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5

Deciphering the shifting role of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers on moss decomposition in peatlands over a 5-year period

Bryophytes are largely responsible for globally significant carbon accumulation in peatland ecosystems. This accumulation is primarily caused by the slow decomposition of these mosses, which can be attributed to a combination of intrinsic (chemical) characteristics of decaying mosses and extrinsic (environmental) influences. Here we investigated the importance of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of moss decomposition in peatlands and hypothesized that the early stages of decay will be driven primarily by intrinsic characteristics, while extrinsic drivers will become more important in the later phases of decomposition. We tested this hypothesis by placing litterbags of three moss types (Sphagnum divinum, Sphagnum angustifolium/fallax and Polytrichum sp.) into hummock and hollow microtopographies in a bog and a lawn microtopography in a nearby poor fen in northern Minnesota, USA. Decomposition was measured over a 5-year period and confirmed our hypothesis; while intrinsic and extrinsic variables were both important in driving decay rates over time, decay in the first year was primarily predicted by litter type, while extrinsic influences (e.g. peat temperature, moisture, nutrient limitation) that varied at peatland and microtopographic scales became more important by year 5. Though the nutrient (i.e. nitrogen [N] and phosphorus [P]) content of decaying mosses did not explain the variation in decay rates among litter types, analysis of N:P in moss litter suggested that litter-decaying microorganisms became increasingly P-limited over time. The majority of litter decomposition studies in peatlands are generally of short duration (< 3 years). Our study suggests that longer-term studies are needed to reveal the roles of multiple drivers of moss decay. Improving the mechanistic understanding of decomposition processes in peatlands will be critical to developing more robust representations of peatlands and their ecosystem processes in carbon and climate models.

29 poor fen↗

Modeling of hepatitis B virus infection spread in primary human hepatocytes

ABSTRACT Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection poses a significant global health threat, causing severe liver diseases including cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. We characterized HBV DNA kinetics in primary human hepatocytes (PHHs) over 32 days post-inoculation (p.i.) and modified ourin-vivoagent-based modeling (ABM) to gain insights into the HBV lifecycle and spreadin vitro. Parallel PHH cultures were mock-treated or treated with HBV entry inhibitor Myr-preS1 (6.25 µg/mL) was initiated 24 h p.i. In untreated PHH, three viral DNA kinetic patterns were identified: (i) an initial decline, followed by (ii) rapid amplification and (iii) slower amplification/accumulation. In the presence of Myr-preS1, viral DNA and infected cell numbers in phase 3 were effectively blocked, with minimal to no increase. This suggests that phase 2 represents viral amplification in initially infected cells, while phase 3 corresponds to viral spread to naïve cells. The ABM reproduced well the HBV kinetic patterns observed and predicted that the viral eclipse phase lasts between 18 and 38 h. After the eclipse phase, the viral production rate increased over time, starting with a slow production cycle of 1 virion per day, which gradually accelerated to 1 virion per hour after 3 days. Approximately 4 days later, virion production reached a steady state production rate of 4 virions/h. The estimated median efficacy of Myr-preS1 in blocking HBV spread was 91% (range: 90–92%). The HBV kinetics and the predicted estimates of the HBV eclipse phase duration and HBV production cycles in PHH are similar to those predicted in uPA/SCID mice with human livers. IMPORTANCE While primary human hepatocytes (PHHs) are the most physiologically relevant culture system for studying HBV infectionin vitro, a comprehensive understanding of HBV infection kinetics and spread in PHH is lacking. In this study, we characterize HBV viral kinetics and modify ourin vivoagent-based modeling (ABM) to provide quantitative insights into the HBV production cycle and viral spread in PHH. The ABM provides an estimate of the HBV eclipse phase duration, HBV production cycles, and Myr-preS1 efficacy in blocking HBV spread in PHH. The results resemble those predicted in uPA/SCID mice with human livers, demonstrating that estimated HBV infection kinetic parameters in PHHin vitromirror those observed in thein vivoHBV infection chimeric mouse model.

Virology↗

Single-colony MALDI mass spectrometry imaging reveals spatial differences in metabolite abundance between natural and cultured Trichodesmium morphotypes

Trichodesmium, a globally significant N 2 -fixing marine cyanobacterium, forms extensive surface blooms in nutrient-poor ocean regions. These blooms consist of a dynamic assemblage of Trichodesmium species that form distinct colony morphotypes and are inhabited by diverse microorganisms. Trichodesmium colony morphotypes vary in ecological niche, nutrient uptake, and organic molecule release, differentially impacting ocean carbon and nitrogen biogeochemical cycles. Here, we assessed the poorly studied spatial abundance of metabolites within and between three morphologically distinct Trichodesmium colonies collected from the Red Sea. We also compared these results with two morphotypes of the cultivable Trichodesmium strain IMS101. Using matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization (MALDI) mass spectrometry imaging (MSI) coupled with liquid extraction surface analysis (LESA) tandem mass spectrometry (MS2), we identified and localized a wide range of small metabolites associated with single-colony Trichodesmium morphotypes. Our untargeted MALDI-MSI approach revealed 80 unique features (metabolites) shared between Trichodesmium morphotypes. Discrimination analysis showed spatial variations in 57 shared metabolites, accounting for 62% of the observed variation between morphotypes. The greatest variations in metabolite abundance were observed between the cultured morphotypes compared to the natural colony morphotypes, suggesting substantial differences in metabolite production between the cultivable strain IMS101 and the naturally occurring colony morphotypes that the cultivable strain is meant to represent. This study highlights the variations in metabolite abundance between natural and cultured Trichodesmium morphotypes and provides valuable insights into metabolites common to morphologically distinct Trichodesmium colonies, offering a foundation for future targeted metabolomic investigations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Carbon nanotube biocompatibility in plants is determined by their surface chemistry

Abstract Background Agriculture faces significant global challenges including climate change and an increasing food demand due to a growing population. Addressing these challenges will require the adoption of transformative innovations into biotechnology practice, such as nanotechnology. Recently, nanomaterials have emerged as unmatched tools for their use as biosensors, or as biomolecule delivery vehicles. Despite their increasingly prolific use, plant-nanomaterial interactions remain poorly characterized, drawing into question the breadth of their utility and their broader environmental compatibility. Results Herein, we characterize the response of Arabidopsis thaliana to single walled carbon nanotube (SWNT) exposure with two different surface chemistries commonly used for biosensing and nucleic acid delivery: oligonucleotide adsorbed-pristine SWNTs, and polyethyleneimine-SWNTs loaded with plasmid DNA (PEI-SWNTs), both introduced by leaf infiltration. We observed that pristine SWNTs elicit a mild stress response almost undistinguishable from the infiltration process, indicating that these nanomaterials are well-tolerated by the plant. However, PEI-SWNTs induce a much larger transcriptional reprogramming that involves stress, immunity, and senescence responses. PEI-SWNT-induced transcriptional profile is very similar to that of mutant plants displaying a constitutive immune response or treated with stress-priming agrochemicals. We selected molecular markers from our transcriptomic analysis and identified PEI as the main cause of this adverse reaction. We show that PEI-SWNT response is concentration-dependent and, when persistent over time, leads to cell death. We probed a panel of PEI variant-functionalized SWNTs across two plant species and identified biocompatible SWNT surface functionalizations. Conclusions While SWNTs themselves are well tolerated by plants, SWNTs surface-functionalized with positively charged polymers become toxic and produce cell death. We use molecular markers to identify more biocompatible SWNT formulations. Our results highlight the importance of nanoparticle surface chemistry on their biocompatibility and will facilitate the use of functionalized nanomaterials for agricultural improvement. Graphical Abstract

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Lawrence Graduate Research Scholar, Allegra Mayer, 2021 (Final Report)

Carbon storage in tropical forest soil depends on the balance between large C inputs from high rates of productivity, and high rates of soil C loss due to rapid decomposition rates. Disturbances to tropical forests, including severe hurricanes, could result in globally significant fluxes of C either to or from forest soils. Severe hurricane events are increasing in frequency in the tropics, yet the vulnerability of soil carbon to a frequent severe hurricane regime is unknown. By constraining a model with samples from before and after three major hurricanes within thirty years, this study examines the cycling of C between soil pools and with depth, under conditions marked by sudden organic matter pulses, rapid shifts in forest structure, and fast decomposition rates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

TES: Modelling Microbes to Predict Post-Fire Carbon Cycling in the Boreal Forest across Burn Severities (Exploratory Proposal)

Wildfires in boreal ecosystems represent a globally significant ecological process that is expected to be sensitive to changing climate as well as forest management strategies, but is currently insufficiently understood and represented in models. We sought to determine whether linking belowground microbial community composition, size, and activity to aboveground properties of burn severity and plant community composition (upland jack pine and upland spruce) would allow us to better model post-fire soil CO 2 fluxes using the Carbon, Organisms, Rhizosphere and Protection in the Soil Environment (CORPSE) model. We used an integrated modelling experimental approach, with mechanistic laboratory experiments designed to inform models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sentinel protist taxa of the McMurdo Dry Valley lakes, Antarctica: a review

High-latitude meromictic lakes such as those in the Antarctic McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV) harbor aquatic ecosystems dominated by the microbial loop. Within this habitat, which is limited year-round by light and nutrients, protists, or single celled eukaryotes, play outsized roles in the food web as the dominant primary producers and the apex predators. Thus, the MDV lake ecosystem represents an ideal system to study the role of sentinel protist taxa in carbon and nutrient cycling. The perennially ice-covered lakes are part of the McMurdo Long Term Ecological Research (McM LTER; mcmlter.org) established in 1993. In this review we will highlight the diversity and trophic roles of the MDV lake protist community and compare environmental factors driving spatiotemporal patterns in key protist taxa in two lakes within the McM LTER, Lakes Bonney and Fryxell. We will then discuss lessons learned from manipulated experiments on the impact of current and future climate-driven environmental change on sensitive protist taxa. Last, we will integrate knowledge gained from 25 years of lab-controlled experiments on key photosynthetic protists to extend our understanding of the function of these extremophiles within the MDV aquatic food webs. Our research group has studied the distribution and function of the MDV microbial community for nearly two decades, training the next generation of scientists to tackle future problems of these globally significant microbes. This review article will also highlight early career scientists who have contributed to this body of work and represent the future of scientific understanding in the Anthropocene.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Detecting Coastal Wetland Degradation by Combining Remote Sensing and Hydrologic Modeling

Sea-level rise and climate change stresses pose increasing threats to coastal wetlands that are vital to wildlife habitats, carbon sequestration, water supply, and other ecosystem services with global significance. However, existing studies are limited in individual sites, and large-scale mapping of coastal wetland degradation patterns over a long period is rare. Our study developed a new framework to detect spatial and temporal patterns of coastal wetland degradation by analyzing fine-scale, long-term remotely sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data. Then, this framework was tested to track the degradation of coastal wetlands at the Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge (ARNWR) in North Carolina, United States, during the period from 1995 to 2019. We identified six types of coastal wetland degradation in the study area. Most of the detected degradation was located within 2 km from the shoreline and occurred in the past five years. Further, we used a state-of-the-art coastal hydrologic model, PIHM-Wetland, to investigate key hydrologic processes/variables that control the coastal wetland degradation. The temporal and spatial distributions of simulated coastal flooding and saltwater intrusion confirmed the location and timing of wetland degradation detected by remote sensing. The combined method also quantified the possible critical thresholds of water tables for wetland degradation. The remote sensing–hydrologic model integrated scheme proposed in this study provides a new tool for detecting and understanding coastal wetland degradation mechanisms. Our study approach can also be extended to other coastal wetland regions to understand how climate change and sea-level rise impact wetland transformations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ecological Trait-Based Digital Categorization of Microbial Genomes for Denitrification Potential

Microorganisms encode proteins that function in the transformations of useful and harmful nitrogenous compounds in the global nitrogen cycle. The major transformations in the nitrogen cycle are nitrogen fixation, nitrification, denitrification, anaerobic ammonium oxidation, and ammonification. The focus of this report is the complex biogeochemical process of denitrification, which, in the complete form, consists of a series of four enzyme-catalyzed reduction reactions that transforms nitrate to nitrogen gas. Denitrification is a microbial strain-level ecological trait (characteristic), and denitrification potential (functional performance) can be inferred from trait rules that rely on the presence or absence of genes for denitrifying enzymes in microbial genomes. Despite the global significance of denitrification and associated large-scale genomic and scholarly data sources, there is lack of datasets and interactive computational tools for investigating microbial genomes according to denitrification trait rules. Therefore, our goal is to categorize archaeal and bacterial genomes by denitrification potential based on denitrification traits defined by rules of enzyme involvement in the denitrification reduction steps. We report the integration of datasets on genome, taxonomic lineage, ecosystem, and denitrifying enzymes to provide data investigations context for the denitrification potential of microbial strains. We constructed an ecosystem and taxonomic annotated denitrification potential dataset of 62,624 microbial genomes (866 archaea and 61,758 bacteria) that encode at least one of the twelve denitrifying enzymes in the four-step canonical denitrification pathway. Our four-digit binary-coding scheme categorized the microbial genomes to one of sixteen denitrification traits including complete denitrification traits assigned to 3280 genomes from 260 bacteria genera. The bacterial strains with complete denitrification potential pattern included Arcobacteraceae strains isolated or detected in diverse ecosystems including aquatic, human, plant, and Mollusca (shellfish). The dataset on microbial denitrification potential and associated interactive data investigations tools can serve as research resources for understanding the biochemical, molecular, and physiological aspects of microbial denitrification, among others. The microbial denitrification data resources produced in our research can also be useful for identifying microbial strains for synthetic denitrifying communities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Interactions of Cells and Biomaterials for Nerve Tissue Engineering: Polymers and Fabrication

Neural injuries affect millions globally, significantly impacting their quality of life. The inability of these injuries to heal, limited ability to regenerate, and the lack of available treatments make regenerative medicine and tissue engineering a promising field of research for developing methods for nerve repair. This review evaluates the use of natural and synthetic polymers, and the fabrication methods applied that influence a cell’s behavior. Methods include cross-linking hydrogels, incorporation of nanoparticles, and 3D printing with and without live cells. The endogenous cells within the injured area and any exogenous cells seeded on the polymer construct play a vital role in regulating healthy neural activity. This review evaluates the body’s local and systemic reactions to the implanted materials. Although numerous variables are involved, many of these materials and methods have exhibited the potential to provide a biomaterial environment that promotes biocompatibility and the regeneration of a physical and functional nerve. Future studies may evaluate advanced methods for modifying material properties and characterizing the tissue–biomaterial interface for clinical applications.

3D printing↗

Recycling of Pretreated Polyolefin-Based Ocean-Bound Plastic Waste by Incorporating Clay and Rubber

Plastic waste found in oceans has become a major concern because of its impact on marine organisms and human health. There is significant global interest in recycling these materials, but their reclamation, sorting, cleaning, and reprocessing, along with the degradation that occurs in the natural environment, all make it difficult to achieve high quality recycled resins from ocean plastic waste. To mitigate these limitations, various additives including clay and rubber were explored. In this study, we compounded different types of ocean-bound (o-HDPE and o-PP) and virgin polymers (v-LDPE and v-PS) with various additives including a functionalized clay, styrene-multi-block-copolymer (SMB), and ethylene-propylene-based rubber (EPR). Physical observation showed that all blends containing PS were brittle due to the weak interfaces between the polyolefin regions and the PS domains within the polymer blend matrix. Blends containing clay showed rough surfaces and brittleness because of the non-uniform distribution of clay particles in the polymer matrix. To evaluate the properties and compatibility of the blends, characterizations using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and small-amplitude oscillatory shear (SAOS) rheology were carried out. The polymer blend (v-LDPE, o-HDPE, o-PP) containing EPR showed improved elasticity. Incorporating additives such as rubber could improve the mechanical properties of polymer blends for recycling purposes.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The potential role of organics in new particle formation and initial growth in the remote tropical upper troposphere

Abstract. Global observations and model studies indicate that new particle formation (NPF) in the upper troposphere (UT) and subsequent particles supply 40 %–60 % of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) in the lower troposphere, thus affecting the Earth's radiative budget. There are several plausible nucleation mechanisms and precursor species in this atmospheric region, which, in the absence of observational constraints, lead to uncertainties in modeled aerosols. In particular, the type of nucleation mechanism and concentrations of nucleation precursors, in part, determine the spatial distribution of new particles and resulting spatial distribution of CCN from this source. Although substantial advances in understanding NPF have been made in recent years, NPF processes in the UT in pristine marine regions are still poorly understood and are inadequately represented in global models. Here, we evaluate commonly used and state-of-the-art NPF schemes in a Lagrangian box model to assess which schemes and precursor concentrations best reproduce detailed in situ observations. Using measurements of aerosol size distributions (0.003 < Dp < 4.8 µm) in the remote marine troposphere between ∼0.18 and 13 km altitude obtained during the NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission, we show that high concentrations of newly formed particles in the tropical UT over both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans are associated with outflow regions of deep convective clouds. We focus analysis on observations over the remote Pacific Ocean, which is a region less perturbed by continental emissions than the Atlantic. Comparing aerosol size distribution measurements over the remote Pacific with box model simulations for 32 cases shows that none of the NPF schemes most commonly used in global models, including binary nucleation of sulfuric acid and water (neutral and ion-assisted) and ternary involving sulfuric acid, water, and ammonia, are consistent with observations, regardless of precursor concentrations. Through sensitivity studies, we find that the nucleation scheme among those tested that is able to explain most consistently (21 of 32 cases) the observed size distributions is that of Riccobono et al. (2014), which involves both organic species and sulfuric acid. The method of Dunne et al. (2016), involving charged sulfuric acid–water–ammonia nucleation, when coupled with organic growth of the nucleated particles, was most consistent with the observations for 5 of 32 cases. Similarly, the neutral sulfuric acid–water–ammonia method of Napari (2002), when scaled with a tuning factor and with organic growth added, was most consistent for 6 of 32 cases. We find that to best reproduce both nucleation and growth rates, the mixing ratios of gas-phase organic precursors generally need to be at least twice that of SO2, a proxy for dimethyl sulfide (DMS). Unfortunately, we have no information on the nature of oxidized organic species that participated in NPF in this region. Global models rarely include organic-driven nucleation and growth pathways in UT conditions where globally significant NPF takes place, which may result in poor estimates of NPF and CCN abundance and contribute to uncertainties in aerosol–cloud–radiation effects. Furthermore, our results indicate that the organic aerosol precursor vapors may be important in the tropical UT above marine regions, a finding that should guide future observational efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

BAWLD-CH 4 : a comprehensive dataset of methane fluxes from boreal and arctic ecosystems

Methane (CH 4 ) emissions from the boreal and arctic region are globally significant and highly sensitive to climate change. There is currently a wide range in estimates of high-latitude annual CH 4 fluxes, where estimates based on land cover inventories and empirical CH 4 flux data or process models (bottom-up approaches) generally are greater than atmospheric inversions (top-down approaches). A limitation of bottom-up approaches has been the lack of harmonization between inventories of site-level CH 4 flux data and the land cover classes present in high-latitude spatial datasets. Here we present a comprehensive dataset of small-scale, surface CH 4 flux data from 540 terrestrial sites (wetland and non-wetland) and 1247 aquatic sites (lakes and ponds), compiled from 189 studies. The Boreal–Arctic Wetland and Lake Methane Dataset (BAWLD-CH 4 ) was constructed in parallel with a compatible land cover dataset, sharing the same land cover classes to enable refined bottom-up assessments. BAWLD-CH 4 includes information on site-level CH 4 fluxes but also on study design (measurement method, timing, and frequency) and site characteristics (vegetation, climate, hydrology, soil, and sediment types, permafrost conditions, lake size and depth, and our determination of land cover class). The different land cover classes had distinct CH 4 fluxes, resulting from definitions that were either based on or co-varied with key environmental controls. Fluxes of CH 4 from terrestrial ecosystems were primarily influenced by water table position, soil temperature, and vegetation composition, while CH 4 fluxes from aquatic ecosystems were primarily influenced by water temperature, lake size, and lake genesis. Models could explain more of the between-site variability in CH 4 fluxes for terrestrial than aquatic ecosystems, likely due to both less precise assessments of lake CH 4 fluxes and fewer consistently reported lake site characteristics. Analysis of BAWLD-CH 4 identified both land cover classes and regions within the boreal and arctic domain, where future studies should be focused, alongside methodological approaches. Overall, BAWLD-CH 4 provides a comprehensive dataset of CH 4 emissions from high-latitude ecosystems that are useful for identifying research opportunities, for comparison against new field data, and model parameterization or validation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Interpretation of lunar heat flow data

Lunar heat flow observations at the Apollo 15 and 17 sites can be interpreted to imply bulk U concentrations for the moon of 5 to 8 times those of normal chondrites and 2 to 4 times terrestrial values inferred from the earth's heat flow and the assumption of thermal steady state between surface heat flow and heat production. A simple model of nearsurface structure that takes into account the large difference in (highly insulating) regolith thickness between mare and highland provinces is considered. This model predicts atypically high local values of heat flow near the margins of mare regions - possibly a factor of 10 or so higher than the global average. A test of the proposed model using multifrequency microwave techniques appears possible wherein heat flow traverse measurements are made across mare-highland contacts. The theoretical considerations discussed here urge caution in attributing global significance to point heat-flow measurements on the moon.

Conel, J. E.↗

Infrared images of Jupiter at 5-micrometer wavelength during the Voyager 1 encounter

A coordinated program to observe Jupiter at high spatial resolution in the 5-micrometer wavelength region was undertaken to support Voyager 1 imaging and infrared radiation experiment targeting. Jupiter was observed over a 5-month period from Palomar and Mauna Kea observatories. The frequency of observations allowed the selection of interesting areas for closer Voyager examination and also provided good short-term monitoring of variations in cloud morphology. Significant global changes in the 5-micrometer distribution are seen over this time period.

Terrile, R. J.↗

The magnetic fields of Mercury, Mars, and moon

Mariner observations have shown a significant global magnetic field at Mercury with a dipole moment at a tilt of 14 + or - 5 deg relative to the normal of the orbit plane. A presently active dynamo is the most likely origin for the planet's magnetic field. Limited evidence for an intrinsic magnetic field on Mars was obtained by USSR spacecraft in 1971 and 1974. The Martian magnetic field, if it exists, may result from either remanent magnetism or an active dynamo. On the moon, local magnetic fields have been detected by the Apollo and Lunokhod missions, but no global correlation of the steady state values has been noted.

Ness, N. F.↗

Particle erosion mechanisms and mass redistribution in Saturn's rings

A variety of physical processes can erode the surfaces of planetary ring particles. According to current estimates, the most efficient of these over the bulk of Saturn's rings is hypervelocity impact by 100 microns to one centimeter radius meteoroids. The atoms, molecules, and fragments ejected from ring particles by erosion arc across the rings along elliptical orbits to produce a tenuous halo of solid ejecta and an extensive gaseous atmosphere. Continuous exchange of ejecta between different ring regions can lead to net radial transport of mass and angular momentum. The equations governing this ballistic transport process are presented and discussed. Both numerical and analytic studies of idealized ring systems illustrate that ballistic transport can cause significant mass redistribution in the rings, especially near regions of high density contrast, such as the inner edges of the A and B rings. Ejecta exchanges can also alter local particle sizes and compositions and may produce pulverized regoliths at least several centimeters deep. The meteoroid erosion rate is so high that significant global torques and mass loss are possible on times shorter than a solar system life time.

Durisen, R. H.↗

Climate changes associated with nuclear war

Nuclear war, featuring explosion of half the world arsenal of nuclear weapons, would cause urban and forest fires that would inject 20-650 megatons of smoke into the atmosphere. The Northern Hemisphere optical depth would increase to between 0.5-14. All models indicate an increase in optical depths, a large net radiation gain in the smoke layer, and an antigreenhouse effect at the surface. Significant global cooling would proceed, transforming the global climate to a large degree toward that of an airless world. Persisting deficiencies in the models are identified, noting research areas which would improve the accuracies of the predictions.

Toon, O. B.↗