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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
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NASA NTRS2000

Landsat TM as a Tool for Locating Habitat for Cerulean Warblers

I believe that I made significant strides in three areas between fall of 1997 and fall of 2000 when I concluded my participation in the JOVE program. First, I acquired skill in digital remote sensing. This was significant to me because it had been 20 years since I had done any work utilizing remote sensing. I used my new skills in two classroom settings (forest ecology and GIS). In addition, I will participate as an instructor of digital remote sensing in a workshop for secondary educators this coming spring. Second, I received funding from the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission and the U.S. Forest Service to supplement JOVE funds. Third, and most importantly, a students and I developed a technique using LandSAT TM for identifying habitat for cerulean warblers. We developed a habitat model using logistic regression to discriminate between pixels that had a high probability of representing good cerulean warbler habitat and pixels that had a low probability of representing cerulean warbler habitat. Using this model, we located five significant populations of cerulean warblers in the Ozark National Forest of Arkansas. These populations were unknown before the initiation of this research and further represent a significant proportion of the known cerulean warblers in Arkansas. Preliminary findings were presented at the Ornithological Societies of America meeting in August of 1999. I also presented findings at the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission Research Symposium held in June of 2000. Finally, one paper is in press: James, D. A., C.J. Kellner, J. Self, and J. Davis., 'Breeding season distribution of cerulean warblers in Arkansas in the 1990's'. In addition, one paper is under construction: 'Population fluctuation and habitat selection by cerulean warblers in upland forests of Arkansas,' and one paper is under consideration: 'LandSAT TM and Logistic regression for identification of cerulean warbler habitat in upland forests of Arkansas.'

Kellner, Chris↗
NASA NTRS2002

Analysis of Wading Bird use of Impounded Wetland Habitat on the Kennedy Space Center/Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge, 1987-1998

This report summarizes results of the first eleven years of monthly aerial surveys of wading bird use of foraging habitats within impoundments on the Kennedy Space Center/Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge. Some impoundments were used much more heavily by wading birds than were others. Analysis suggests that an increase in interspersion of open water and vegetated habitats is preferred foraging habitat. Many wading bird species increased their use of vegetated habitat in Fall and Winter when impoundments were flooded. The mean number of wading birds per survey was greatest during the Pre-nesting and Nesting seasons, declined during Post-nesting season, and was lowest during Winter when water levels within impoundments were high. During these times, shallow habitat along the IRL shoreline provided alternative habitats for wading birds. Various measures of monthly precipitation and impoundment water level were well correlated with the numbers of wading birds observed. Numbers of nesting attempts was steady during the study period, with the exception of an unusually high number of attempts in 1990. White Ibis accounted for over half of all wading bird nests counted. The mean number of nests per colony decreased during the study period, and the number of individual colonies increased.

Stolen, Eric D.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Lunar/Mars Surface Habitat Mockups Project

Surface habitats play a centric role with respect to integration of the crew operations and supporting surface systems for external operations on the moon and Mars. Up to now the only planetary surface habitat NASA has ever developed is the 2-person, 3-day duration Lunar Module from the 1960 s-era Apollo Program. Today s National Vision for Space Exploration pushes far beyond the safety, performance and operational requirements of the Lunar Module, and NASA needs to develop a basis for making habitat design decisions Experience has shown that using mockups very early in a project s life cycle is extremely beneficial, providing data that influences requirements for human design, volumetrics, functionality, systems hardware and operations. Evaluating and comparing a variety of habitat configurations will provide NASA with a cost-effective basis for trades to support lunar and Martian habitat design selection. This paper describes the NASA project that recently has been created to undertake the development and evaluation of a series of planetary surface habitat mockups. This project is in direct response to the Advanced Space Platforms and Systems (ASPS) Element Program s request for novel systems approaches for robust and reconfigurable habitation systems.

Tri, Terry O.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Lunar Habitat Optimization Using Genetic Algorithms

Long-duration surface missions to the Moon and Mars will require bases to accommodate habitats for the astronauts. Transporting the materials and equipment required to build the necessary habitats is costly and difficult. The materials chosen for the habitat walls play a direct role in protection against each of the mentioned hazards. Choosing the best materials, their configuration, and the amount required is extremely difficult due to the immense size of the design region. Clearly, an optimization method is warranted for habitat wall design. Standard optimization techniques are not suitable for problems with such large search spaces; therefore, a habitat wall design tool utilizing genetic algorithms (GAs) has been developed. GAs use a "survival of the fittest" philosophy where the most fit individuals are more likely to survive and reproduce. This habitat design optimization tool is a multiobjective formulation of up-mass, heat loss, structural analysis, meteoroid impact protection, and radiation protection. This Technical Publication presents the research and development of this tool as well as a technique for finding the optimal GA search parameters.

SanScoucie, M. P.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Lunar Surface Habitat Configuration Assessment: Methodology and Observations

The Lunar Habitat Configuration Assessment evaluated the major habitat approaches that were conceptually developed during the Lunar Architecture Team II Study. The objective of the configuration assessment was to identify desired features, operational considerations, and risks to derive habitat requirements. This assessment only considered operations pertaining to the lunar surface and did not consider all habitat conceptual designs developed. To examine multiple architectures, the Habitation Focus Element Team defined several adequate concepts which warranted the need for a method to assess the various configurations. The fundamental requirement designed into each concept included the functional and operational capability to support a crew of four on a six-month lunar surface mission; however, other conceptual aspects were diverse in comparison. The methodology utilized for this assessment consisted of defining figure of merits, providing relevant information, and establishing a scoring system. In summary, the assessment considered the geometric configuration of each concept to determine the complexity of unloading, handling, mobility, leveling, aligning, mating to other elements, and the accessibility to the lunar surface. In theory, the assessment was designed to derive habitat requirements, potential technology development needs and identify risks associated with living and working on the lunar surface. Although the results were more subjective opposed to objective, the assessment provided insightful observations for further assessments and trade studies of lunar surface habitats. This overall methodology and resulting observations will be describe in detail and illustrative examples will be discussed.

Carpenter, Amanda↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Habitat Demonstration Unit Project Overview

This paper will describe an overview of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) led multi-center Habitat Demonstration Unit (HDU) Project. The HDU project is a "technology-pull" project that integrates technologies and innovations from numerous NASA centers. This project will be used to investigate and validate surface architectures, operations concepts, and requirements definition of various habitation concepts. The first habitation configuration this project will build and test is the Pressurized Excursion Module (PEM). This habitat configuration - the PEM - is based on the Constellation Architecture Scenario 12.1 concept of a vertically oriented habitat module. The HDU project will be tested as part of the 2010 Desert Research and Technologies Simulations (D-RATS) test objectives. The purpose of this project is to develop, integrate, test, and evaluate a habitat configuration in the context of the mission architectures and surface operation concepts. A multi-center approach will be leveraged to build, integrate, and test the PEM through a shared collaborative effort of multiple NASA centers. The HDU project is part of the strategic plan from the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) Directorate Integration Office (DIO) and the Lunar Surface Systems Project Office (LSSPO) to test surface elements in a surface analog environment. The 2010 analog field test will include two Lunar Electric Rovers (LER) and the PEM among other surface demonstration elements. This paper will describe the overall objectives, its various habitat configurations, strategic plan, and technology integration as it pertains to the 2010 and 2011 field analog tests. To accomplish the development of the PEM from conception in June 2009 to rollout for operations in July 2010, the HDU project team is using a set of design standards to define the interfaces between the various systems of PEM and to the payloads, such as the Geology Lab, that those systems will support. Scheduled activities such as early fit-checks and the utilization of a habitat avionics test bed prior to equipment installation into PEM are planned to facilitate the integration process.

Kennedy, Kriss J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Concept of Operations Evaluation for Mitigating Space Flight-Relevant Medical Issues in a Planetary Habitat

Introduction: Analogue environments assist the NASA Human Research Program (HRP) in developing capabilities to mitigate high risk issues to crew health and performance for space exploration. The Habitat Demonstration Unit (HDU) is an analogue habitat used to assess space-related products for planetary missions. The Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) element at the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) was tasked with developing planetary-relevant medical scenarios to evaluate the concept of operations for mitigating medical issues in such an environment. Methods: Two medical scenarios were conducted within the simulated planetary habitat with the crew executing two space flight-relevant procedures: Eye Examination with a corneal injury and Skin Laceration. Remote guidance for the crew was provided by a flight surgeon (FS) stationed at a console outside of the habitat. Audio and video data were collected to capture the communication between the crew and the FS, as well as the movements of the crew executing the procedures. Questionnaire data regarding procedure content and remote guidance performance also were collected from the crew immediately after the sessions. Results: Preliminary review of the audio, video, and questionnaire data from the two scenarios conducted within the HDU indicate that remote guidance techniques from an FS on console can help crew members within a planetary habitat mitigate planetary-relevant medical issues. The content and format of the procedures were considered concise and intuitive, respectively. Discussion: Overall, the preliminary data from the evaluation suggest that use of remote guidance techniques by a FS can help HDU crew execute space exploration-relevant medical procedures within a habitat relevant to planetary missions, however further evaluations will be needed to implement this strategy into the complete concept of operations for conducting general space medicine within similar environments

Barsten, Kristina↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Single Habitat Module Concept for Exploration - Mission Planning and Mass Estimates

The Single Habitat Module (SHM) concept approach to the infrastructure and conduct of exploration missions combines many of new promising technologies with a central concept of mission architectures that use a single habitat module for all phases of an exploration mission. Integrating mission elements near Earth and fully fueling them prior to departure of the vicinity of Earth provides the capability of using the single habitat both in transit to/from an exploration destination and while exploring the destination. The concept employs the capability to return the habitat and interplanetary propulsion system to Earth vicinity so that those elements can be reused on subsequent exploration missions. This paper provides an overview of the SHM concept and the advantages it provides. A summary of calculations of the mass of the habitat propulsion system (HPS) needed to get the habitat from Low Mars Orbit (LMO) to the surface and back to LMO and an overview of trajectory and mission mass assessments related to use of a high specific impulse space based propulsion system is provided. Those calculations lead to the conclusion that the SHM concept can significantly reduce the mass required and streamline mission operations to explore Mars (and thus all exploration destinations).

Chambliss, Joe↗
NASA NTRS2013

Radial Internal Material Handling System (RIMS) for Circular Habitat Volumes

On planetary surfaces, pressurized human habitable volumes will require a means to carry equipment around within the volume of the habitat, regardless of the partial gravity (Earth, Moon, Mars, etc.). On the NASA Habitat Demonstration Unit (HDU), a vertical cylindrical volume, it was determined that a variety of heavy items would need to be carried back and forth from deployed locations to the General Maintenance Work Station (GMWS) when in need of repair, and other equipment may need to be carried inside for repairs, such as rover parts and other external equipment. The vertical cylindrical volume of the HDU lent itself to a circular overhead track and hoist system that allows lifting of heavy objects from anywhere in the habitat to any other point in the habitat interior. In addition, the system is able to hand-off lifted items to other material handling systems through the side hatches, such as through an airlock. The overhead system consists of two concentric circle tracks that have a movable beam between them. The beam has a hoist carriage that can move back and forth on the beam. Therefore, the entire system acts like a bridge crane curved around to meet itself in a circle. The novelty of the system is in its configuration, and how it interfaces with the volume of the HDU habitat. Similar to how a bridge crane allows coverage for an entire rectangular volume, the RIMS system covers a circular volume. The RIMS system is the first generation of what may be applied to future planetary surface vertical cylinder habitats on the Moon or on Mars.

Howe, Alan S.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Habitat Design Considerations for Implementing Solar Particle Event Radiation Protection

Radiation protection is an important habitat design consideration for human exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit. Fortunately, radiation shelter concepts can effectively reduce astronaut exposure for the relatively low proton energies of solar particle events, enabling moderate duration missions of several months before astronaut exposure (galactic cosmic ray and solar particle event) approaches radiation exposure limits. In order to minimize habitat mass for increasingly challenging missions, design of radiation shelters must minimize dedicated, single-purpose shielding mass by leveraging the design and placement of habitat subsystems, accommodations, and consumables. NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems RadWorks Storm Shelter Team has recently designed and performed radiation analysis on several low dedicated mass shelter concepts for a year-long mission. This paper describes habitat design considerations identified during the study's radiation analysis. These considerations include placement of the shelter within a habitat for improved protection, integration of human factors guidance for sizing shelters, identification of potential opportunities for habitat subsystems to compromise on individual subsystem performances for overall vehicle mass reductions, and pre-configuration of shelter components for reduced deployment times.

Simon, Mathew A.↗
NASA NTRS2013

A Tool for the Automated Design and Evaluation of Habitat Interior Layouts

The objective of space habitat design is to minimize mass and system size while providing adequate space for all necessary equipment and a functional layout that supports crew health and productivity. Unfortunately, development and evaluation of interior layouts is often ignored during conceptual design because of the subjectivity and long times required using current evaluation methods (e.g., human-in-the-loop mockup tests and in-depth CAD evaluations). Early, more objective assessment could prevent expensive design changes that may increase vehicle mass and compromise functionality. This paper describes a new interior design evaluation method to enable early, structured consideration of habitat interior layouts. This interior layout evaluation method features a comprehensive list of quantifiable habitat layout evaluation criteria, automatic methods to measure these criteria from a geometry model, and application of systems engineering tools and numerical methods to construct a multi-objective value function measuring the overall habitat layout performance. In addition to a detailed description of this method, a C++/OpenGL software tool which has been developed to implement this method is also discussed. This tool leverages geometry modeling coupled with collision detection techniques to identify favorable layouts subject to multiple constraints and objectives (e.g., minimize mass, maximize contiguous habitable volume, maximize task performance, and minimize crew safety risks). Finally, a few habitat layout evaluation examples are described to demonstrate the effectiveness of this method and tool to influence habitat design.

Simon, Matthew A.↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Single Habitat Module Concept for Exploration - Mission Planning and Mass Estimates

The Single Habitat Module (SHM) concept approach to the infrastructure and conduct of exploration missions combines many new promising technologies with a central concept of mission architectures that use a single habitat module for all phases of an exploration mission. Integrating mission elements near Earth and fully fueling them prior to departure of the vicinity of Earth provides the capability of using the single habitat both in transit to/from an exploration destination and while exploring the destination. The concept employs the capability to return the habitat and interplanetary propulsion system to Earth vicinity so that those elements can be reused on subsequent exploration missions. This paper provides an overview of the SHM concept and the advantages it provides. The paper also provides a summary of calculations of the mass of the Habitat Propulsion System (HPS) needed to get the habitat from low-Mars orbit (LMO) to the surface and back to LMO, and an overview of trajectory and mission mass assessments related to use of a high specific impulse space-based propulsion system. Those calculations led to the conclusion that the SHM concept results in low total mass required and streamlines mission operations to explore Mars (or other exploration destinations).

Chambliss, Joe↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Effects of Vegetative Type, Edges, Fire History, Rainfall and Management in Fire-Maintained Habitat

The combined effects of fire history, climate, and landscape features (e.g., edges) on habitat specialists need greater focus in fire ecology studies, which usually only emphasize characteristics of the most recent fire. Florida scrub-jays are an imperiled, territorial species that prefer medium (1.2-1.7 m) shrub heights, which are dynamic because of frequent fires. We measured short, medium, and tall habitat quality states annually within 10 ha grid cells (that represented potential territories) because fires and vegetative recovery cause annual variation in habitat quality. We used multistate models and model selection to test competing hypotheses about how transition probabilities vary between states as functions of environmental covariates. Covariates included vegetative type, edges (e.g., roads, forests), precipitation, openings (gaps between shrubs), mechanical cutting, and fire characteristics. Fire characteristics not only included an annual presence/absence of fire covariate, but also fire history covariates: time since the previous fire, the longest fire-free interval, and the number of repeated fires. Statistical models with support included many covariates for each transition probability, often including fire history, interactions and nonlinear relationships. Tall territories resulted from 28 years of fire suppression and habitat fragmentation that reduced the spread of fires across landscapes. Despite 35 years of habitat restoration and prescribed fires, half the territories remained tall suggesting a regime shift to a less desirable habitat condition. Edges reduced the effectiveness of fires in setting degraded scrub and flatwoods into earlier successional states making mechanical cutting an important tool to compliment frequent prescribed fires.

Breininger, David R.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Preparing for Planetary Surface Exploration by Measuring Habitat Dust Intrusion with Filter Tests During an Analogue Mars Mission

As humans venture deeper into space more issues related to operations will become apparent. While the perils ofdust particles may not be widely recognized, it is one of the major issues astronauts will face on the surface of theMoon and Mars. Dust particles present a problem for both astronaut health and equipment as revealed during theApollo era lunar surface missions. Dust particles cling to spacesuits and field gear, which upon ingress would begincirculating throughout the spacecraft or habitat. An astronaut's health is compromised by the dust particle's potentialto embed in the lungs and cause respiratory illnesses. The extreme abrasiveness and granularity of the particles makeit near impossible to completely shield a spacecraft or habitat from dust related damage. NASA's Glenn ResearchCenter collaborated with Crew 188 at the Mars Desert Research Station (MDRS) in Utah to measure how much dustentered the habitat during a series of extravehicular activities (EVAs), or surface excursions. A NASA GRCdeveloped multistage filter system, coined the Scroll Filter System, was tested, for its effectiveness in removing dustthat entered the airlock and habitat after the EVAs. An optical particle counter measured the ambient airlockparticulates five times including: before the start of operations; after the crew left for EVA; in the middle of the EVAwith the settled air; before the crew entered the airlock after EVA; and finally, after the crew simulated repressurizationand suit brushing off in the airlock. Data was also collected in several of the working environmentlocations around MDRS and outside the habitat in the wind. Data collected from this research will help establishfilter equipment for life support systems and prescribed operations for astronaut transition from a planetary surfaceinto a desired clean habitat. Measurements may aid in updating a baseline expected dust load for a surface habitatand further facilitate the mitigation of astronaut's exposure to dust particles on the surface of celestial bodies.

Kobrick, Ryan L.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Colorado & New Mexico Water Resources: Mapping Wetland and Riparian Areas to Support Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout Habitat Restoration

Over the last century, the Rio Grande cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarki virginalis; RGCT) population has declined significantly due to habitat loss, competition, and hybridization with non-native trout species; the species currently occupies roughly 11% of its historic habitat. Conservation efforts led by governmental and private actors have succeeded in increasing RGCT populations since the early 2000s. Vermejo Park Ranch, a privately owned 560,000-acre property, partnered with US Fish and Wildlife Service and Colorado Parks and Wildlife (CPW) to begin the largest native trout restoration initiative in North America. Since 2002, these efforts have included wetland and riparian area restoration and RGCT reintroduction. Current restoration efforts focus on restoring the Costilla Creek Watershed to provide cool water temperatures, improve water quality, and create the necessary habitat requirements for the trout species. To guide these restoration efforts, the Colorado – Fort Collins NASA DEVELOP team produced maps to locate and characterize wetland and riparian areas in the Costilla Creek watershed. The team utilized NASA data from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), as well as Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI), Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), and additional ancillary data for May 2016 to October 2019. In order to produce probability maps of wetland presence, the team used the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM) incorporating predictor variables generated from topographic indices, spectral indices, and radar. The resulting maps allowed Vermejo Ranch and CPW to determine the extent of possible RGCT habitat and identify where habitat restoration efforts may be needed.

Water Resources↗
NASA NTRS2020

Colorado & New Mexico Water Resources: Mapping Wetland and Riparian Areas to Support Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout Habitat Restoration

Over the last century, the Rio Grande cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarki virginalis; RGCT) population has declined significantly due to habitat loss, competition, and hybridization with non-native trout species; the species currently occupies roughly 11% of its historic habitat. Conservation efforts led by governmental and private actors have succeeded in increasing RGCT populations since the early 2000s. Vermejo Park Ranch, a privately owned 560,000-acre property, partnered with US Fish and Wildlife Service and Colorado Parks and Wildlife (CPW) to begin the largest native trout restoration initiative in North America. Since 2002, these efforts have included wetland and riparian area restoration and RGCT reintroduction. Current restoration efforts focus on restoring the Costilla Creek Watershed to provide cool water temperatures, improve water quality, and create the necessary habitat requirements for the trout species. To guide these restoration efforts, the Colorado –Fort Collins NASA DEVELOP team produced maps to locate and characterize wetland and riparian areas in the Costilla Creek watershed. The team utilized NASA data from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager, and Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper in conjunction with Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument, Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar, and additional ancillary data for May 2016 to October 2019. In order to produce probability maps of wetland presence, the team used the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM) incorporating predictor variables generated from topographic indices, spectral indices, and radar. The resulting maps allowed Vermejo Ranch and CPW to determine the extent of possible RGCT habitat and identify where habitat restoration efforts are needed.

Health & Air Quality↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mapping Wetland and Riparian Areas to Support Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout Habitat Restoration

The Rio Grande cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarki virginalis; RGCT) population has declined significantly over the last century due to habitat loss, competition, and hybridization with non-native trout species. The species currently occupies roughly 11% of its historic habitat. Conservation efforts led by government and private actors have succeeded in increasing RGCT populations since the early 2000s. State, federal, and private partners began the largest native trout restoration initiative in North America. Since 2002, these efforts have included wetland and riparian area restoration and RGCT reintroduction. Current restoration efforts focus on restoring the Costilla Creek Watershed located in Colorado and New Mexico to provide cool water temperatures, improve water quality, and maintain suitable habitat for the trout species. To guide these restoration efforts, the team conducted a rapid assessment to locate and characterize wetland and riparian areas in the Costilla Creek watershed. The team utilized NASA data from the Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), as well as the Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI), and the Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) for May 2016 to October 2019. To produce probability maps of wetland presence, the team used the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM) incorporating predictor variables generated from topographic indices, spectral indices, and radar. The top three models (General Wetland model, Stream and Wetland Connectivity model, and Inclusive Wetland model) showed a strong ability to detect wetlands. They all had AUC values greater than 0.9 and had high overlap with wetland areas during visual assessment over high-resolution imagery. The General Wetland model output was converted into a wetland polygon dataset and polygons were classified by wetland type. The resulting maps and datasets will support partners in determining the extent of possible RGCT habitat and identifying where habitat restoration efforts may be needed.

NASA DEVELOP↗
NASA NTRS2020

Interannual Variability in the Thermal Habitat of Alexandrium catenella in the Bay of Fundy and the Implications of Climate Change

Globally, harmful algal blooms (HABs) are an increasing problem. In the Gulf of Maine and Bay of Fundy, blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella are annually recurrent phenomena. As this region is one of the most rapidly warming areas of the global ocean, an improved understanding of the mechanisms driving the initiation of local A. catenella blooms, their interannual variability and the implications of future climate change is critical to local monitoring strategies and marine resources management. A 27-year (1988–2014) time series of weekly A. catenella cell counts from the Bay of Fundy and concurrent satellite-measured sea surface temperature, freshwater discharge from the St. John River and wind-driven turbulence are compared to assess their relationship to variability in bloom phenology metrics. The mean thermal habitat associated with early detection of A. catenella is 6.5 ± 1.6°C, whereas that of bloom initiation averages 9.2 ± 1.5°C. Both thermal habitats for A. catenella are trending earlier over the study period. Bloom initiations that precede the arrival of the thermal habitat mean (occur in colder water) are associated with higher spring freshwater discharge and are generally weaker blooms. Increased spring freshwater discharge is also associated with earlier bloom initiation and earlier maximum concentration dates. No significant relationship was observed with the strength of wind-driven mixing. Removal of the mean thermal seasonal cycle shows that surface temperature anomalies have a strong negative relationship to the bloom phenology metrics and arrival of thermal habitat: warmer years are linked to earlier arrival of thermal habitats (∼12 days °C–1) and earlier detection and bloom initiation dates (∼33 days °C–1). Using these relationships and present trends in Bay of Fundy surface temperature warming over the period 1982–2019, we project the arrival dates of bloom thermal habitat and bloom phenology metrics out to the middle of this century. Based on current rates of sea surface temperature change, bloom phenology metrics (e.g., bloom initiation, early detection), can be expected to shift 1–2 months earlier in the season by mid-century. Such changes in the phenology of A. catenella blooms will need to be incorporated into both monitoring strategies and forecasting models for the region.

Andre F. Bucci↗