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DOE OSTI2024

A Model-Based Systems Engineering Approach for Effective Decision Support of Modern Energy Systems Depicted with Clean Hydrogen Production

A holistic approach to decision-making in modern energy systems is vital due to their increase in complexity and interconnectedness. However, decision makers often rely on narrowly-focused strategies, such as economic assessments, for energy system strategy selection. The approach in this paper helps considers various factors such as economic viability, technological feasibility, environmental impact, and social acceptance. By integrating these diverse elements, decision makers can identify more economically feasible, sustainable, and resilient energy strategies. While existing focused approaches are valuable since they provide clear metrics of a potential solution (e.g., an economic measure of profitability), they do not offer the much needed system-as-a-whole understanding. This lack of understanding often leads to selecting suboptimal or unfeasible solutions, which is often discovered much later in the process when a change may not be possible. This paper presents a novel evaluation framework to support holistic decision-making in energy systems. The framework is based on a systems thinking approach, applied through systems engineering principles and model-based systems engineering tools, coupled with a multicriteria decision analysis approach. The systems engineering approach guides the development of feasible solutions for novel energy systems, and the multicriteria decision analysis is used for a systematic evaluation of available strategies and objective selection of the best solution. The proposed framework enables holistic, multidisciplinary, and objective evaluations of solutions and strategies for energy systems, clearly demonstrates the pros and cons of available options, and supports knowledge collection and retention to be used for a different scenario or context. The framework is demonstrated in case study evaluation solutions for a novel energy system of clean hydrogen generation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

State-by-state energy-water-land-health impacts of the US net-zero emissions goal

As decisionmakers at various scales begin to design strategies to implement the US net-zero goal, a holistic understanding of its broader economic and sustainability implications at subnational scales is important to shape public support and facilitate implementation. Here, we use an integrated assessment model to explore four different pathways toward the US net-zero goal and investigate their energy-water-land-health implications at the state level. In this study, we show that achieving the net-zero goal implies significant capital turnover (170–200 billion USD/year capital investment and 16–29 billion USD/year stranded assets in the power sector), reduced water withdrawal (120–210 km 3 /year), avoided air pollution damages (220–300 billion USD/year), and expanded forests (300–500 thousand km 2 ). However, the economic and sustainability implications of achieving the net-zero goal at the state-level may not be correlated to a state's contribution to national emission reductions. Our study lays the foundations for a deeper understanding of the broader implications of the US net-zero goal to facilitate cost-effective and environmentally sustainable transitions toward that goal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Roadmap on advanced and / real-time characterisation of solid state materials and devices for energy applications

A strong societal and political drive is motivating the development and optimization of novel energy conversion and storage systems for decarbonization. The successful implementation of solid state devices such as fuel cells and secondary batteries depends, however, on achieving ambitious targets in terms of performance, reliability and cost competitiveness. Research and technology are addressing these needs through a holistic approach including exploration of new materials and nanoarchitectures, as well as system engineering. These significant efforts require the support of appropriate characterization tools capable of assessing nanometer-scale phenomena such as concentration profiles of ionic and electronic charges, local chemical compositions and their evolution over time across interfaces. This roadmap provides an overview of selected advanced characterization techniques for energy materials and devices. Specific focus is put on in situ/operando methods for probing electrochemical phenomena in real-time under realistic working conditions. Experts in the field provide an extensive review of the current state of the art in 2025 and the current and future challenges for the characterization of local chemistry and kinetics in the bulk of the material, in nanoarchitectures (e.g. thin films) and at the interfaces (e.g. grain boundaries, phase contacts, solid/liquid and solid/gas interfaces) . The aim is to provide a detailed guide to the techniques, describing opportunities and bottlenecks for their practical deployment and examples of successful applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hydrogen Infrastructure Analysis for the Port Applications [Slides]

The International Maritime Organization has committed to 50% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050 worldwide as of 2023. This analysis includes performing an inventory and modeling efforts to understand the energy, equipment and cost requirements to support decarbonization of cargo handling and shore power at U.S. Ports, along with assessment of zero- and near- zero emission fuel supplies at or near U.S. ports focused upon Hydrogen technologies. Initial market assessment for ocean going vessels for harbor support and ocean-going vessels is explored. An energy analysis is performed on the port system using a holistic approach and considering the port as an entire ecosystem that functions as a transportation and energy node. Presently, a comprehensive view is lacking for future analysis efforts, this analysis seeks to address this gap in data by evaluating four representative port types and the potential for utilizing hydrogen for the maritime industry. Every port is different, but broadly they could be bracketed into reference cases with scaling factors for the relative size of the port operations. These reference ports are for future use, potentially as baselines for analysis and development of demonstration programs. An equipment inventory for each reference port type (container, bulk, breakbulk, and inland waterway) is presented. A comparative analysis of fuel cell electric and battery electric equipment is conducted based on the following criteria: technology readiness level, refueling/charging time, operational range, energy consumption, and fuel cost savings compared to baseline internal combustion engine equipment. The tradeoffs and synergies between two alternative powertrains is highlighted. Based on energy and infrastructure analysis, average and high equipment utilization profiles across different port types is identified and quantified baseline fuel and electricity demand for various decarbonization scenarios. Based on the portfolio of equipment converted to fuel cell electric, the estimates of initial capital investment are provided for hydrogen refueling stations across ports. An energy demand model is developed that predicts well the all-electric cargo handling equipment annual energy consumption for ports with annual tonnage under 2 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). The model is a good rubric to follow for further energy demand models that can create a scalable solution to understand the energy needs of cargo handling equipment, whether they are all-electric, hydrogen fuel cell, or powered by another fuel-type. Zero and near-zero emission fuel supply at ports is evaluated looking into the characteristics of hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol as an alternative fuel, as well as the bunkering status. The readiness of reference ports to produce ammonia or methanol and bunker the fuel is examined based on the framework developed by the Global Maritime Forum and Rocky Mountain Institute.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessment of Physical Security Modeling and Simulation in the Vulnerability Assessment Process

This report provides a comprehensive assessment of physical security modeling and simulation tools available for use in the vulnerability assessment (VA) process for nuclear facilities. It outlines the historical evolution of VA methodologies, emphasizing the transition from traditional layer-based approaches to a more holistic framework that integrates detection probabilities directly into combat simulations. The document details the critical components of the VA process, including the characterization of targets, threats, and protective measures, as well as the development of adversary scenarios that reflect both insider and outsider threats. It highlights the importance of performance assurance programs, emphasizing the need for continuous evaluation and testing of security systems to ensure their effectiveness against evolving threats. Additionally, the report discusses the significance of utilizing accredited modeling and simulation tools in accredited areas to accurately represent adversary actions and the corresponding responses of protective forces. By establishing a systematic approach to VA, this document aims to enhance the overall security posture of nuclear facilities, ensuring compliance with regulatory standards while effectively mitigating risks associated with potential adversarial actions.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2023

Understanding the compound flood risk along the coast of the contiguous United States

Abstract. Compound flooding is a type of flood event caused by multiple flood drivers. The associated risk has usually been assessed using statistics-based analyses or hydrodynamics-based numerical models. This study proposes a compound flood (CF) risk assessment (CFRA) framework for coastal regions in the contiguous United States (CONUS). In this framework, a large-scale river model is coupled with a global ocean reanalysis dataset to (a) evaluate the CF exposure related to the coastal backwater effects on river basins, and (b) generate spatially distributed data for analyzing the CF hazard using a bivariate statistical model of river discharge and storm surge. The two kinds of risk are also combined to achieve a holistic understanding of the continental-scale CF risk. The estimated CF risk shows remarkable inter- and intra-basin variabilities along the CONUS coast with more variabilities in the CF hazard over the US west and Gulf coastal basins. Different risk assessment methods present significantly different patterns in a few key regions such as the San Francisco Bay area, the lower Mississippi River, and Puget Sound. Our results highlight the need to weigh different CF risk measures and avoid using single statistics-based or hydrodynamics-based CFRAs. Uncertainty sources in these CFRAs include the use of gauge observations, which cannot account for the flow physics or resolve the spatial variability of risks, and underestimations of the flood extremes and the dependence of CF drivers in large-scale models, highlighting the importance of understanding the CF risks for developing a more robust CFRA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Role of Machine Learning in the Understanding and Design of Materials

Developing algorithmic approaches for the rational design and discovery of materials can enable us to systematically find novel materials, which can have huge technological and social impact. However, such rational design requires a holistic perspective over the full multistage design process, which involves exploring immense materials spaces, their properties, and process design and engineering as well as a techno-economic assessment. The complexity of exploring all of these options using conventional scientific approaches seems intractable. Instead, novel tools from the field of machine learning can potentially solve some of our challenges on the way to rational materials design. Here we review some of the chief advancements of these methods and their applications in rational materials design, followed by a discussion on some of the main challenges and opportunities we currently face together with our perspective on the future of rational materials design and discovery.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Whole-building life-cycle analysis with a new GREET® tool: Embodied greenhouse gas emissions and payback period of a LEED-Certified library

Embodied greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of building components and buildings operations need to be quantified to holistically address building sustainability. To evaluate embodied GHG emissions of buildings and to provide insights on building materials and building design decisions toward decarbonization, we have recently created a building life-cycle assessment (LCA) module in the widely used Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (GREET (R)) LCA model. We applied the GREET building LCA module to examine embodied GHG impacts and the payback period of a LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) certified public library in Chicago, USA. We developed localized, detailed life-cycle inventories to address individual building materials used in the library. We expanded the LCA system boundary to include the mechanical, electrical, and plumbing system, as well as refrigerant impacts, which are often ignored in previous studies. Results show that the total embodied GHG emissions are approximately 817 metric tons, or approximately 538 kg/m 2 . Sensitivity analysis highlights the positive role of increasing the use of recycled materials for reducing embodied GHG emissions. Sensitivity analysis on embodied GHG emissions payback periods shows the need to benchmark the embodied and operational carbon performance of buildings for comparison to alternative building designs and sustainability practices. Furthermore, this analysis demonstrates that building LCA models, such as the GREET building LCA module, which addresses embodied and operational GHG emission impacts of whole buildings holistically, could empower building architects, technology developers, manufacturers, and general contractors to address embodied and operational impacts holistically for building sustainability.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Improving the Confidence in Retrievals of Vertical Distributions of Cloud Condensation Nuclei Number Concentration from ARM Supported by Aircraft In Situ Observations

Accurate quantification of the vertical distribution of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentrations is critical for improving our understanding of aerosol–cloud interactions. Ground-based Raman lidars operated by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program, together with surface CCN measurements, are used to retrieve vertically resolved CCN number concentrations (Retrieved Number concentration of CCN, RNCCN). These retrievals rely on several assumptions, including that aerosol composition is vertically homogeneous. To assess this assumption, we developed and tested a framework to infer the dominant aerosol classes/types at different altitudes. This was done by applying a k-Nearest-Neighbors (kNN) algorithm to lidar ratio and linear depolarization ratio measurements from Raman lidar. We evaluated the framework using aircraft aerosol and CCN measurements from the ARM Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) field campaign. The results show that RNCCN performance degrades as vertical aerosol complexity increases, i.e., RNCCN agrees with the aircraft CCN in vertically homogeneous conditions, but closure decreases in layered aerosol structures. To generalize beyond individual examples, we introduce a metric (heterogeneity index) that quantifies the vertical complexity by assessing the variation of inferred aerosol classes/types. Case-level statistics show a tendency for RNCCN and aircraft differences to increase with this metric. By detecting retrievals that are likely compromised by aerosol vertical heterogeneity, the proposed framework improves the interpretability and effective use of RNCCN used for long-term evaluation of models and aerosol–cloud interactions.

Tian, Jingjing↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Critical Review of the Circular Economy for Lithium-Ion Batteries and Photovoltaic Modules: Status, Challenges, and Opportunities

To meet net-zero emissions and cost targets for power production, recent analysis indicates that photovoltaic (PV) capacity in the United States could exceed 1 TW by 2050 alongside comparable levels of energy storage capacity, mostly from batteries. For comparison, the total U.S. utility-scale power capacity from all energy sources in 2020 was 1.2 TW (EIA 2022), of which solar satisfied approximately 3% (DOE 2021). With such massive scales of deployment, questions have arisen regarding issues of material supply for manufacturing, end-of-life management of technologies, environmental impacts across the life cycle, and economic costs to both individual consumers and society at large. A set of solutions to address these issues center on the development of a circular economy - shifting from a take-make-waste linear economic model to one that retains the value of materials and products as long as possible, recovering materials at end of life to recirculate back into the economy. With limited global experience, scholars and practitioners have begun to investigate circular economy pathways, focusing on applying novel technologies and analytical methods to fast-growing sectors like renewable energy. This critical review aims to synthesize the growing literature to identify key insights, gaps, and opportunities for research and implementation of a circular economy for two of the leading technologies that enable the transition to a renewable energy economy: solar PV and lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). We apply state-of-the-science systematic literature review procedures to critically analyze over 3,000 publications on the circular economy of solar PV and LIBs, categorizing those that pass a series of objective screens in ways that can illuminate the current state of the art, highlight existing impediments to a circular economy, and recommend future technological and analytical research. We conclude that while neither PV nor LIB industries have reached a circular economy, they are both on a path towards increased circularity. Based on our assessment of the state of current literature and scientific understanding, we recommend research move beyond its prior emphasis on recycling technology development to more comprehensively investigate other CE strategies, more holistically consider economic, environmental and policy aspects of CE strategies, increase leveraging of digital information systems that can support acceleration towards a CE, and to continue to study CE-related aspects of LIB and PV markets.

circular economy↗

DOE OSTI2021

DER-CF (Distributed Energy Resource Cybersecurity Framework) and DER-CF Lite [SWR-20-29]

The Distributed Energy Resource Cybersecurity Framework (DER-CF) is a no-cost, interactive web tool that holistically evaluates a facility’s distributed energy resource (DER) cybersecurity posture—or health—and makes customized recommendations. The newer DER-CF Lite simplifies the process and quickly provides an assessment.

Reynolds, Tamara (Tami)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Workshop Summary: Bridging the Gap Between Atmospheric Science and Grid Integration

The need for dedicated, accurate, expertly curated weather data is increasingly important as the share of variable renewable energy increases on the power system. Projections for futures with very high (50+% annual energy) shares of variable generation require ongoing assessment of data requirements from industry stakeholders in their power system operation and planning contexts. In March 2024, NREL organized a workshop entitled "Bridging the Gap Between Atmospheric Science and Grid Integration Workshop", which brought atmospheric scientists and power system experts together to refine the requirements of atmospheric datasets for grid integration, and to describe a holistic approach to creating new and regularly updated national scale wind datasets for power system planning and operations. The results of this workshop are being used to inform the near-term development and a longer-term strategy for DOE to produce relevant wind resource datasets and inform wider use of wind/solar/load data sets in power system planning. This presentation provides an overview of a preworkshop survey, an assessment of current state of the art of national-scale datasets for wind resource assessment and grid integration, insights on appropriate uses of the WTK-LED, power system perspectives on data needs, as well as recommended next steps as discussed in the workshop and how these steps support longer-term strategies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

FORCE Regression Testing

Via programs including the Light Water Reactor Sustainability and Integrated Energy Systems, the U.S. Department of Energy has invested in the Framework for Optimization of ResourCes and Economics (FORCE) software framework (Idaho National Laboratory 2024a) for the technical and economic analysis of nuclear-integrated energy systems (IES). Nuclear IES expand the use of nuclear from traditional baseload electricity generation to a flexible and adaptive source of combined heat and power. Nuclear heat can be used in the production of a variety of energy currencies such as hydrogen and ammonia as well as other heat applications including water desalination and district heating. FORCE is designed with the intent to provide interconnected analysis tools that enable the accurate technical and economic assessment of specific nuclear IES configurations for individual energy markets. FORCE consists of three main analysis pathways: HYBRID (Idaho National Laboratory 2024b), which contains high-resolution physical models for IES; Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) (Idaho National Laboratory 2024c), which analyzes IES long-term economic viability; and Optimization of Real-time Capacity Allocation (ORCA) (Idaho National Laboratory 2024d), designed for real-time control of IES via digital twins and optimal decision making, including autonomous and remote operation research. Development of the FORCE ecosystem is guided by three pillars: capability, which assures that the computational requirements of IES analysis are met by the software tools; reliability, which provides for consistent code performance and expected behaviors; and accessibility, which lowers the barrier to entry for using the software and accelerates analysis by users beyond the FORCE primary developers. Reliability of the FORCE ecosystem is established according to the American Nuclear Society?s Nuclear Quality Assurance (NQA-1) program [American Society of Mechanical Engineers 1982], with specific levels of software quality assurance (SQA) within NQA-1 applied to each software tool in FORCE. As the tools within FORCE have matured, some integration algorithms to accurately connect the software tools for holistic analysis have been developed and deployed within the FORCE software repository. In accordance with NQA-1 standards, regression tests are required to guarantee the software performs consistently even when new capabilities are added to the software. In this report, we document the deployment of both unit tests, which test the consistent behavior of small pieces of the FORCE code base, as well as integration tests, which test the consistent performance of full use cases for the FORCE integration algorithms. We further document the encapsulation of these tests within a test harness, which collectively checks for each successful test completion on demand. Finally, we document the automation of the test harness using GitHub Actions [GitHub 2024], which require all tests succeed before any new capability or other changes can be added to the FORCE integration software

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Region-Based Stability Analysis of Resilient Distribution Systems with Hybrid Grid-Forming and Grid-Following Inverters

In this paper, distribution system stability considering mixed grid-forming (GFM) and grid-following (GFL) inverters is discussed. A holistic small-signal model of the distribution feeder accommodating both GFM and GFL inverters is derived. In contrast to conventional point-by-point stability analysis, a region-based stability assessment approach is proposed and implemented to evaluate small-signal system stability with both GFM and GFL controls. Furthermore, to enhance the computational efficiency, an Artificial Intelligence (AI) assisted Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) approach is developed to obtain the stability region boundary. Therefore, with the derived stability region, the impact of critical parameters on system stability is intuitively shown, and more importantly, the relationship between the maximum penetration level and the corresponding feasible range of the selected control parameters can be quantified. The proposed approach has been validated using MATLAB/Simulink.

grid-following↗

DOE OSTI2026

Analysis of strategies to meet ASHRAE S241 infectious aerosol control targets by space type and region using EnergyPlus™ simulations

Professional organizations, such as ASHRAE, have recently proposed new voluntary standards for controlling infectious aerosols. Specifically, ASHRAE Standard 241 (S241) defines equivalent clean air targets for a range of space types that can be met through combinations of mitigation measures. This paper seeks to inform the selection of measures by space type and climate zone through building simulations that quantify the impacts of increased outdoor air ventilation; increasing filtration and/or adding germicidal ultraviolet (GUV) in the central heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems; or using portable air cleaners (PACs), upper room GUV, or whole room GUV approaches to increase equivalent clean air delivery. The measures are assessed individually and in practical combinations for their ability to meet S241 in four space types (offices, classrooms, dining areas, and healthcare waiting rooms) using prototype buildings modeled using EnergyPlus. The mitigation measures are compared holistically against baseline building operations using metrics for equivalent clean air, energy, and comfort. The results in this study show that single measures can meet S241 for offices with minimal impacts on energy and comfort, while either upper room GUV systems or combinations of measures such as MERV 13 HVAC filtration with PACs are needed to meet S241 for classrooms. The dining area and healthcare waiting room targets cannot be met in this study when assuming design occupancy and MS2 as the challenge agent, even when combining multiple measures together. This paper provides valuable considerations when designing measures to meet S241 for a range of spaces and scenarios.

GUV↗

DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification in machine learning for engineering design and health prognostics: A tutorial

On top of machine learning (ML) models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) functions as an essential layer of safety assurance that could lead to more principled decision making by enabling sound risk assessment and management. The safety and reliability improvement of ML models empowered by UQ has the potential to significantly facilitate the broad adoption of ML solutions in high-stakes decision settings, such as healthcare, manufacturing, and aviation, to name a few. In this tutorial, we aim to provide a holistic lens on emerging UQ methods for ML models with a particular focus on neural networks and the applications of these UQ methods in tackling engineering design as well as prognostics and health management problems. Towards this goal, we start with a comprehensive classification of uncertainty types, sources, and causes pertaining to UQ of ML models. Next, we provide a tutorial-style description of several state-of-the-art UQ methods: Gaussian process regression, Bayesian neural network, neural network ensemble, and deterministic UQ methods focusing on spectral-normalized neural Gaussian process. Established upon the mathematical formulations, we subsequently examine the soundness of these UQ methods quantitatively and qualitatively (by a toy regression example) to examine their strengths and shortcomings from different dimensions. Then, we review quantitative metrics commonly used to assess the quality of predictive uncertainty in classification and regression problems. Afterward, we discuss the increasingly important role of UQ of ML models in solving challenging problems in engineering design and health prognostics. In conclusion, two case studies with source codes available on GitHub are used to demonstrate these UQ methods and compare their performance in the life prediction of lithium-ion batteries at the early stage (case study 1) and the remaining useful life prediction of turbofan engines (case study 2).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Regulatory Decision-Making Process Using 'Weight of Evidence: An Evidence Integration Approach' by the State of Washington at the Hanford Site - 20163

Performance Assessment and Environmental Impact Statement Modeling, Human and Ecological Risk Assessments are the tools used by the Washington State Department of Ecology (Ecology) to make regulatory decisions for permitting and cleanup. These efforts all inherently have large amounts of uncertainty no matter how many alternative approaches are attempted. Professional feedback from tribal governments, stakeholders, federal and state regulators, the public and independent peer review groups are taken into account in this process of informed decision making. The process also includes full evaluation of the comments and the associated reviews made by the various peer review groups such as the Low -Level Waste Disposal Facility Federal Review Group (DOE order 435.1) and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The evolution of technology has produced quicker and more efficient fate and transport modeling tools with related quantification of uncertainties and their significance. Groundwater and vadose zone models have been expanded across the entire Hanford site. Many of the technical approaches identified in the Washington State Regulations are updated using current knowledge to better understand the complexities of the Hanford Site using the latest state of the art tools for risk assessment and modeling. More emphasis and time are directed on defining uncertainty and then managing the uncertainty. One added tool is to run sensitivity cases based on informed decision making. The weight of evidence approach considers all relevant information in an integrative assessment that takes into account the kinds of evidence available, the quality and quantity, the uncertainty and error associated with each type, and how they fit together. Evidence of integration involves looking at systematic reviews and evaluating their strengths and weaknesses. In conclusion, Ecology, Washington State's lead regulatory agency at the Hanford site, has had to modify its site closure approach compared to the rest of the state. A more holistic approach dealing with the Hanford site as an integrated system has evolved leading to a defensible informed approach for regulatory closure decisions. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cyber threat assessment of machine learning driven autonomous control systems of nuclear power plants

We report advanced cyber-attacks against critical infrastructure and the energy sector are becoming more common. With the invention of autonomous control systems (ACS) within advanced nuclear reactor designs, system designers, reactor operators, and regulators must consider cybersecurity during the design and operational phases. This article provides a cyber threat assessment of machine learning (ML)-based digital twinning (DT) technologies in the context of advanced reactor ACS. A cyber–physical testbed was created to emulate nuclear reactor digital instrumentation and controls (I&C) and act as a basis for the ACS. The ACS was designed as two plant-level DTs predicting reactor malfunctions and determining control actions and two component-level DTs responsible for classifying component states and forecasting component inputs and outputs (I/O). Two duplicate ACS designs– one using a traditional ML framework and one using an automated ML (AutoML) framework– were created and tested against cyber-attacks on training data, real-time process data, and ML model architectures to determine their respective qualitative cyber-risk in terms of likelihood and impact. Both frameworks showed similar cyber-resilience against training, real-time, and ML architecture attacks, proving that neither is inherently more secure. Recommended safeguard and security measures are posed to system designers, reactor operators, and regulators to maintain the cybersecurity of ML-based DT technologies such as ACS, prompting a holistic view of shared responsibility for maintaining cyber-secure ML-based systems.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗