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DOE OSTI2020

Planck 2018 results. VI. Cosmological parameters

In this paper, we present cosmological parameter results from the final full-mission Planck measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies, combining information from the temperature and polarization maps and the lensing reconstruction. Compared to the 2015 results, improved measurements of large-scale polarization allow the reionization optical depth to be measured with higher precision, leading to significant gains in the precision of other correlated parameters. Improved modelling of the small-scale polarization leads to more robust constraints on many parameters, with residual modelling uncertainties estimated to affect them only at the 0.5 σ level. We find good consistency with the standard spatially-flat 6-parameter ΛCDM cosmology having a power-law spectrum of adiabatic scalar perturbations (denoted “base ΛCDM” in this paper), from polarization, temperature, and lensing, separately and in combination. A combined analysis gives dark matter density Ω c h 2 = 0.120 ± 0.001, baryon density Ω b h 2 = 0.0224 ± 0.0001, scalar spectral index n s = 0.965 ± 0.004, and optical depth τ = 0.054 ± 0.007 (in this abstract we quote 68% confidence regions on measured parameters and 95% on upper limits). The angular acoustic scale is measured to 0.03% precision, with 100 θ * = 1.0411 ± 0.0003. These results are only weakly dependent on the cosmological model and remain stable, with somewhat increased errors, in many commonly considered extensions. Assuming the base-ΛCDM cosmology, the inferred (model-dependent) late-Universe parameters are: Hubble constant H 0 = (67.4 ± 0.5) km s –1 Mpc –1 ; matter density parameter Ω m = 0.315 ± 0.007; and matter fluctuation amplitude σ 8 = 0.811 ± 0.006. We find no compelling evidence for extensions to the base-ΛCDM model. Combining with baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements (and considering single-parameter extensions) we constrain the effective extra relativistic degrees of freedom to be N eff = 2.99 ± 0.17, in agreement with the Standard Model prediction N eff = 3.046, and find that the neutrino mass is tightly constrained to Σ m ν < 0.12 eV. The CMB spectra continue to prefer higher lensing amplitudes than predicted in base ΛCDM at over 2 σ , which pulls some parameters that affect the lensing amplitude away from the ΛCDM model; however, this is not supported by the lensing reconstruction or (in models that also change the background geometry) BAO data. The joint constraint with BAO measurements on spatial curvature is consistent with a flat universe, Ω K = 0.001 ± 0.002. Also combining with Type Ia supernovae (SNe), the dark-energy equation of state parameter is measured to be w 0 = –1.03 ± 0.03, consistent with a cosmological constant. We find no evidence for deviations from a purely power-law primordial spectrum, and combining with data from BAO, BICEP2, and Keck Array data, we place a limit on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r 0.002 < 0.06. Standard big-bang nucleosynthesis predictions for the helium and deuterium abundances for the base-ΛCDM cosmology are in excellent agreement with observations. The Planck base-ΛCDM results are in good agreement with BAO, SNe, and some galaxy lensing observations, but in slight tension with the Dark Energy Survey’s combined-probe results including galaxy clustering (which prefers lower fluctuation amplitudes or matter density parameters), and in significant, 3.6 σ , tension with local measurements of the Hubble constant (which prefer a higher value). Simple model extensions that can partially resolve these tensions are not favoured by the Planck data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Calibrating the absolute magnitude of type Ia supernovae in nearby galaxies using [O II ] and implications for H 0

The present state of cosmology is facing a crisis where there is a fundamental disagreement in measurements of the Hubble constant ($H_{0}$), with significant tension between the early and late Universe methods. Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are important to measuring $H_{0}$ through the astronomical distance ladder. However, there remains potential to better standardize SN Ia light curves by using known dependencies on host galaxy properties after the standard light curve width and colour corrections have been applied to the peak SN Ia luminosities. To explore this, we use the 5-yr photometrically identified SNe Ia sample obtained by the Dark Energy Survey, along with host galaxy spectra obtained by the Australian Dark Energy Survey. Using host galaxy spectroscopy, we find a significant trend with the equivalent width (EW) of the [O II ] $\lambda \lambda$ 3727, 29 doublet, a proxy for specific star formation rate, and Hubble residuals. We find that the correlation with [O II ] EW is a powerful alternative to the commonly used mass step after initial light-curve corrections. Applying this [O II ] EW correction to 20 SNe Ia in calibrator galaxies observed with WiFeS, we examined the impact on SN Ia absolute magnitudes and $H_{0}$. Our [O II ] EW corrections result in $H_{0}$ values ranging between 73.04 and 73.51 $km$ $s^{-1} \, Mpc^{-1}$, with a combined statistical and systematic uncertainty of $\sim 1.31$ $km$ $s^{-1} \, Mpc^{-1}$. However, even with this additional correction, the impact of host galaxy properties in standardizing SNe Ia appears limited in reducing the current tension ($\sim 5\sigma$) with the cosmic microwave background result for $H_{0}$.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hubble constant difference between CMB lensing and BAO measurements

We apply a tension metric QUDM, the update difference in mean parameters, to understand the source of the difference in the measured Hubble constant H0 inferred with cosmic microwave background lensing measurements from the Planck satellite (H 0 = $67.9$ $^{+1.1}_{–1.3}$ km/s/Mpc) and from the South Pole Telescope (H 0 = $72.0$ $^{+2.1}_{–2.5}$ km/s/Mpc) when both are combined with baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements with priors on the baryon density (BBN). Q UDM isolates the relevant parameter directions for tension or concordance where the two data sets are both informative, and aids in the identification of subsets of data that source the observed tension. With Q UDM , we uncover that the difference in H 0 is driven by the tension between Planck lensing and BAO+BBN, at probability-to-exceed of 6.6%. Most of this mild tension comes from the galaxy BAO measurements parallel to the line of sight in the redshift range 0.2 < z < 0.75. Here, the redshift dependence of the parallel BAOs pulls both the matter density Ω m and H 0 high in Λ CDM, but these parameter anomalies are usually hidden when the BAO measurements are combined with other cosmological data sets with much stronger Ω m constraints.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Snowmass2021 - Letter of interest cosmology intertwined I: Perspectives for the next decade

The standard Λ Cold Dark Matter cosmological model provides an amazing description of a wide range of astrophysical and astronomical data. However, there are a few big open questions, that make the standard model look like a first-order approximation to a more realistic scenario that still needs to be fully understood. In this Letter of Interest we will list a few important goals that need to be addressed in the next decade, also taking into account the current discordances present between the different cosmological probes, as the Hubble constant H0 value, the σ8S8 tension, and the anomalies present in the Planck results. Finally, we will give an overview of upgraded experiments and next-generation space-missions and facilities on Earth that will be of crucial importance to address all these questions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

A testable hidden-sector model for Dark Matter and neutrino masses

We consider a minimal extension of the Standard Model with a hidden sector charged under a dark local U(1)' gauge group, accounting simultaneously for light neutrino masses and the observed Dark Matter relic abundance. The model contains two copies of right-handed neutrinos which give rise to light neutrino-masses via an extended seesaw mechanism. The presence of a stable Dark-Matter candidate and a massless state naturally arise by requiring the simplest anomaly-free particle content without introducing any extra symmetries. We investigate the phenomenology of the hidden sector considering the U(1)' breaking scale of the order of the electroweak scale. Confronting the thermal history of this hidden-sector model with existing and future constraints from collider, direct and indirect detection experiments provides various possibilities of probing the model in complementary ways as every particle of the dark sector plays a specific cosmological role. Across the identified viable parameter space, a large region predicts a sizable contribution to the effective relativistic degrees-of-freedom in the early Universe that allows to alleviate the recently reported tension between late and early measurements of the Hubble constant.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Completed SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: Cosmological implications from two decades of spectroscopic surveys at the Apache Point Observatory

We present the cosmological implications from final measurements of clustering using galaxies, quasars, and Lyα forests from the completed Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) lineage of experiments in large-scale structure. These experiments, composed of data from SDSS, SDSS-II, BOSS, and eBOSS, offer independent measurements of baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements of angular-diameter distances and Hubble distances relative to the sound horizon, r d , from eight different samples and six measurements of the growth rate parameter, fσ 8 , from redshift-space distortions (RSD). This composite sample is the most constraining of its kind and allows us to perform a comprehensive assessment of the cosmological model after two decades of dedicated spectroscopic observation. We show that the BAO data alone are able to rule out dark-energy-free models at more than eight standard deviations in an extension to the flat, ΛCDM model that allows for curvature. When combined with Planck Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) measurements of temperature and polarization, under the same model, the BAO data provide nearly an order of magnitude improvement on curvature constraints relative to primary CMB constraints alone. Independent of distance measurements, the SDSS RSD data complement weak lensing measurements from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) in demonstrating a preference for a flat ΛCDM cosmological model when combined with Planck measurements. The combined BAO and RSD measurements indicate σ 8 =0.85±0.03, implying a growth rate that is consistent with predictions from Planck temperature and polarization data and with General Relativity. When combining the results of SDSS BAO and RSD, Planck, Pantheon Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), and DES weak lensing and clustering measurements, all multiple-parameter extensions remain consistent with a ΛCDM model. Regardless of cosmological model, the precision on each of the three parameters, Ω Λ , H 0 , and σ 8 , remains at roughly 1%, showing changes of less than 0.6% in the central values between models. In a model that allows for free curvature and a time-evolving equation of state for dark energy, the combined samples produce a constraint Ω K =-0.0022±0.0022. The dark energy constraints lead to w 0 =-0.909±0.081 and w a =$-0.49_{-0.30}^{+0.35}$, corresponding to an equation of state of w p =-1.018±0.032 at a pivot redshift z p =0.29 and a Dark Energy Task Force Figure of Merit of 94. The inverse distance ladder measurement under this model yields H 0 =68.18±0.79 km s -1 Mpc -1 , remaining in tension with several direct determination methods; the BAO data allow Hubble constant estimates that are robust against the assumption of the cosmological model. In addition, the BAO data allow estimates of H 0 that are independent of the CMB data, with similar central values and precision under a ΛCDM model. Our most constraining combination of data gives the upper limit on the sum of neutrino masses at Σm ν <0.115 eV (95% confidence). Finally, we consider the improvements in cosmology constraints over the last decade by comparing our results to a sample representative of the period 2000-2010. We compute the relative gain across the five dimensions spanned by w, Ω k , Σm ν , H 0 , and σ 8 and find that the SDSS BAO and RSD data reduce the total posterior volume by a factor of 40 relative to the previous generation. Finally, adding again the Planck, DES, and Pantheon SN Ia samples leads to an overall contraction in the five-dimensional posterior volume of 3 orders of magnitude.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Do reverberation-measured H β quasars provide a useful test of cosmology?

We use 118 Hβ quasar (QSO) observations in the redshift range 0.0023 ≤ z ≤ 0.89 to simultaneously constrain cosmological model parameters and QSO 2-parameter radius-luminosity (R–L) relation parameters in six different cosmological models. We find that the R–L relation parameters for these QSOs are independent of the assumed cosmology so these QSOs seem to be standardizable through the R–L relation (although there is a complication that might render this untrue). Cosmological constraints obtained using these QSOs are weak, more favour currently decelerated cosmological expansion, and typically are in ~2σ tension with those obtained from a joint analysis of baryon acoustic oscillation and Hubble parameter measurements. Extending the R–L relation to a 3-parameter one to try to correct for the accretion rate effect does not result in a reduction of the cosmological constraints discrepancy nor does it result in the hoped-for significant reduction of the intrinsic scatter of the R–L relation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cosmological Constraints on Secluded Dark Radiation

Dark radiation (DR) is ubiquitous in physics beyond the Standard Model (SM), and its interactions with the SM and dark matter (DM) lead to a variety of interesting effects on cosmological observables. However, even in scenarios where DR is 'secluded', i.e., only gravitationally interacting with SM and DM, it can leave discernible signatures. We present a comprehensive study of four different types of DR: free-streaming, self-interacting (coupled), decoupling, and recoupling DR, and vary initial conditions to include both adiabatic and isocurvature perturbations. In addition to these properties, we also vary neutrino energy density, DR energy density, and the SM neutrino masses to perform a general analysis and study degeneracies among neutrino and DR properties. We derive constraints using the cosmic microwave background, large-scale structure, and supernova datasets. We find no significant preference for physics beyond the $Λ$CDM model, but data exhibit interesting interplays between different physical quantities. When the neutrino energy density is allowed to vary, we find that the cosmological dataset prefers massless free-streaming DR over massive neutrinos, leading to a significant relaxation of the neutrino mass bound. Although we do not find any evidence of DR isocurvature, the data show support for a strong blue tilt of the isocurvature power spectrum. Our analysis also highlights the degeneracy of various DR parameters with the Hubble constant $H_0$ resulting in a mild relaxation of the $H_0$ tension.

Chang, Jae Hyeok [Fermilab; Illinois U., Chicago] ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Can late dark energy transitions raise the Hubble constant?

Late times dark energy transitions at redshifts z << 0.1 can raise the predicted value of the Hubble constant to the SH0ES value, 74.03 ± 1.42 (km s –1 Mpc –1 ) or more, while providing an equally good fit as Λ CDM at 67.73±0.41 to higher redshift data, in particular from the cosmic microwave background and baryon acoustic oscillations. Here, these models however do not fully resolve the true source of tension between the distance ladder and high redshift observations: the local calibration of supernovae luminosities well out into the Hubble flow. When tested in this manner by transferring the SH0ES calibration to the Pantheon supernovae dataset, the ability of such transitions to raise the Hubble constant is reduced to 69.17 ± 1.09. Such an analysis should also be used when testing any dynamical dark energy model which can produce similarly fine features in redshift or local void models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

The local hole: a galaxy underdensity covering 90 per cent of sky to ≈200 Mpc

We investigate the ‘Local Hole’, an anomalous underdensity in the local galaxy environment, by extending our previous galaxy K-band number-redshift and number-magnitude counts to ≈90 per cent of the sky. Our redshift samples are taken from the 2MASS Redshift Survey (2MRS) and the 2M++ catalogues, limited to K < 11.5. We find that both surveys are in good agreement, showing an ≈21–22 per cent underdensity at z < 0.075 when compared to our homogeneous counts model that assumes the same luminosity function (LF) and other parameters as in our earlier papers. Using the Two Micron All Sky Survey (2MASS) for n(K) galaxy counts, we measure an underdensity relative to this model of 20±2 per cent at K < 11.5, which is consistent in both form and scale with the observed n(z) underdensity. To examine further the accuracy of the counts model, we compare its prediction for the fainter n(K) counts of the Galaxy and Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey. We further compare these data with a model assuming the parameters of a previous study where little evidence for the Local Hole was found. At 13 < K < 16, we find a significantly better fit for our galaxy counts model, arguing for our higher LF normalization. Although our implied underdensity of ≈20 per cent means local measurements of the Hubble Constant have been overestimated by ≈3 per cent, such a scale of underdensity is in tension with a global ΛCDM cosmology at an ≈3σ level.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Superhorizon isocurvature fluctuations relax tensions

Here, we present a new class of models that have potential to alleviate tensions present in the cosmological data today. We postulate about variation in the sound horizon scale on superhorizon scales, i.e., on scales that are larger than that of the present observable low-redshift Universe (≳ 1Gpc) while at the same time smaller than the largest scales probed by the cosmic microwave background (CMB) (≲ 10Gpc). In this scenario, CMB peaks are naturally smoothed as preferred by the Planck data, while at the same time the low-redshift baryon acoustic oscillation calibration is partially decoupled from the CMB. Taking superhorizon variations in baryon fraction as an example and using approximate modeling, we find improvement in the best fit Planck power spectrum model Δχ 2 ~ 6 for 1 extra degree of freedom with the relevant extension parameter 10 3 σ b = 2.10 ± 0.60, implying about 10% variations in baryon fraction across the Universe. At the same time, S 8 drops by about 1 sigma, easing tension with weak lensing surveys. We find that the combination of Planck 2018 data, eBOSS BAO data, and Riess et al. distance ladder Hubble parameter determination produce a satisfactory fit in our model if we allow for a phantom dark energy equation of state.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

H 0 ex machina: Vacuum metamorphosis and beyond H 0

Here, we do not solve tensions with concordance cosmology; we do obtain H 0 ≈ 74 km/s/Mpc from CMB+BAO+SN data in our model, but that is not the point. Discrepancies in Hubble constant values obtained by various astrophysical probes should not be viewed in isolation. While one can resolve at least some of the differences through either an early time transition or late time transition in the expansion rate, these introduce other changes. We advocate a holistic approach, using a wide variety of cosmic data, rather than focusing on one number, H 0 . Vacuum metamorphosis, a late time transition physically motivated by quantum gravitational effects and with the same number of parameters as ΛCDM, can successfully give a high H 0 value from cosmic microwave background data but fails when combined with multiple distance probes. We also explore the influence of spatial curvature, and of a conjoined analysis of cosmic expansion and growth.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reviving sub-keV warm dark matter: a UVLF-based analysis

Thermal warm dark matter (WDM) particles with m WDM ≤ 1 keV are ruled out at more than 4σ by multiple observational probes, owing to the strong suppression of small-scale structure induced by early-time free-streaming. Recently, it was highlighted that a small admixture of ∼ 1% (f CDM ∼ 0.01) cold dark matter (CDM) endowed with a blue-tilted isocurvature spectrum could offset the WDM-induced suppression and relax the WDM mass bound by a factor of 𝒪(10). If viable, this “warm + cold-isocurvature” scenario would allow sub-keV WDM particles to constitute nearly the full dark matter abundance while potentially alleviating some small-scale tensions. In this work, we test this mechanism by constraining the WDM mass mWDM while marginalizing over CDM isocurvature parameters. We combine ultraviolet luminosity function measurements from the Hubble Space Telescope and James Webb Space Telescope over redshift 4 ≤ z ≤ 11 with CMB, BAO, and SNe data. For a pure WDM model, our joint analysis yields a lower bound m WDM > 1.8 keV (95% credible intervals). When CDM isocurvature is introduced at f CDM = 0.01, the limit relaxes to m WDM > 0.27 keV (95% credible intervals), reflecting a shallow degeneracy in which blue-tilted isocurvature fluctuations partially compensate for WDM suppression. These results provide new constraints on thermal WDM in the presence of CDM isocurvature fluctuations and quantify the extent to which such fluctuations can mask the small-scale signatures of light relics.

cosmological parameters from CMBR↗

DOE OSTI2020

Joint analysis of 6dFGS and SDSS peculiar velocities for the growth rate of cosmic structure and tests of gravity

ABSTRACT Measurement of peculiar velocities by combining redshifts and distance indicators is a powerful way to measure the growth rate of a cosmic structure and test theories of gravity at low redshift. Here we constrain the growth rate of the structure by comparing observed Fundamental Plane peculiar velocities for 15 894 galaxies from the 6dF Galaxy Survey (6dFGS) and Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) with predicted velocities and densities from the 2M++ redshift survey. We measure the velocity scale parameter $\beta \equiv {\Omega _{\rm m}^\gamma }/b = 0.372^{+0.034}_{-0.050}$ and $0.314^{+0.031}_{-0.047}$ for 6dFGS and SDSS, respectively, where Ωm is the mass density parameter, γ is the growth index, and b is the bias parameter normalized to the characteristic luminosity of galaxies, L*. Combining 6dFGS and SDSS, we obtain β = 0.341 ± 0.024, implying that the amplitude of the product of the growth rate and the mass fluctuation amplitude is fσ8 = 0.338 ± 0.027 at an effective redshift z = 0.035. Adopting Ωm = 0.315 ± 0.007, as favoured by Planck and using γ = 6/11 for General Relativity and γ = 11/16 for DGP gravity, we get $S_8(z=0) = \sigma _8 \sqrt{\Omega _{\rm m}/0.3} =0.637 \pm 0.054$ and 0.741 ± 0.062 for GR and DGP, respectively. This measurement agrees with other low-redshift probes of large-scale structure but deviates by more than 3σ from the latest Planck CMB measurement. Our results favour values of the growth index γ > 6/11 or a Hubble constant H0 > 70 km s−1 Mpc−1 or a fluctuation amplitude σ8 < 0.8 or some combination of these. Imminent redshift surveys such as Taipan, DESI, WALLABY, and SKA1-MID will help to resolve this tension by measuring the growth rate of cosmic structure to 1 per cent in the redshift range 0 < z < 1.

Said, Khaled↗

DOE OSTI2020

Informational approach to cosmological parameter estimation

Here, we introduce a new approach for cosmological parameter estimation based on the information-theoretical Jensen-Shannon divergence ($\mathscr{D}$ JS ), calculating it for models in the restricted parameter space {H 0 , w 0 , w a }, where H 0 is the value of the Hubble constant today, and w 0 and w a are dark energy parameters, with the other parameters held fixed at their best-fit values from the Planck 2018 data. As an application, we investigate the H 0 tension between the Planck temperature power spectrum data (TT) and the local astronomical data by comparing the ΛCDM model with the wCDM and the w 0 w a CDM dynamic dark energy models. We find agreement with other works using the standard Bayesian inference for parameter estimation; in addition, we show that while the $\mathscr{D}$ JS is equally minimized for both values of H 0 along the (w 0 , w a ) plane, the lines of degeneracy are different for each value of H 0 . This allows for distinguishing between the two, once the value of either w 0 or w a is known.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Geometry versus growth: Internal consistency of the flat ΛCDM model with KiDS-1000

Here, we carry out a multi-probe self-consistency test of the flat Lambda Cold Dark Matter (ΛCDM) model with the aim of exploring potential causes of the reported tensions between high- and low-redshift cosmological observations. We divide the model into two theory regimes determined by the smooth background (geometry) and the evolution of matter density fluctuations (growth), each governed by an independent set of ΛCDM cosmological parameters. This extended model is constrained by a combination of weak gravitational lensing measurements from the Kilo-Degree Survey, galaxy clustering signatures extracted from Sloan Digital Sky Survey campaigns and the Six-Degree Field Galaxy Survey, and the angular baryon acoustic scale and the primordial scalar fluctuation power spectrum measured in Planck cosmic microwave background (CMB) data. For both the weak lensing data set individually and the combined probes, we find strong consistency between the geometry and growth parameters, as well as with the posterior of standard ΛCDM analysis. In the non-split analysis, for which one single set of parameters was used, tension in the amplitude of matter density fluctuations as measured by the parameter S 8 persists at around 3σ, with a 1.5% constraint of S 8 = 0.776$_{–0.008}^{+0.016}$ for the combined probes. We also observe a less significant preference (at least 2σ) for higher values of the Hubble constant, H 0 = 70.5$_{–1.5}^{+0.7}$ km s –1 Mpc –1 , as well as for lower values of the total matter density parameter Ω m = 0.289$_{–0.005}^{+0.007}$ compared to the full Planck analysis. Including the subset of the CMB information in the probe combination enhances these differences rather than alleviate them, which we link to the discrepancy between low and high multipoles in Planck data. Our geometry versus growth analysis does not yet yield clear signs regarding whether the origin of the discrepancies lies in ΛCDM structure growth or expansion history but holds promise as an insightful test for forthcoming, more powerful data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

STRIDES: a 3.9 per cent measurement of the Hubble constant from the strong lens system DES J0408−5354

We present a blind time-delay cosmographic analysis for the lens system DES J0408−5354. This system is extraordinary for the presence of two sets of multiple images at different redshifts, which provide the opportunity to obtain more information at the cost of increased modelling complexity with respect to previously analysed systems. We perform detailed modelling of the mass distribution for this lens system using three band Hubble Space Telescope imaging. We combine the measured time delays, line-of-sight central velocity dispersion of the deflector, and statistically constrained external convergence with our lens models to estimate two cosmological distances. We measure the ‘effective’ time-delay distance corresponding to the redshifts of the deflector and the lensed quasar |$D_{\Delta t}^{\rm eff}=$||$3382_{-115}^{+146}$| Mpc and the angular diameter distance to the deflector D_d = |$1711_{-280}^{+376}$| Mpc, with covariance between the two distances. From these constraints on the cosmological distances, we infer the Hubble constant H_0= |$74.2_{-3.0}^{+2.7}$| km s^−1 Mpc^−^1 assuming a flat ΛCDM cosmology and a uniform prior for Ω_m as |$\Omega _{\rm m} \sim \mathcal {U}(0.05, 0.5)$|⁠. This measurement gives the most precise constraint on H_0 to date from a single lens. Our measurement is consistent with that obtained from the previous sample of six lenses analysed by the H_0 Lenses in COSMOGRAIL’s Wellspring (H0LiCOW) collaboration. It is also consistent with measurements of H_0 based on the local distance ladder, reinforcing the tension with the inference from early Universe probes, for example, with 2.2σ discrepancy from the cosmic microwave background measurement.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying concordance of correlated cosmological data sets

We develop estimators of agreement and disagreement between correlated cosmological data sets. These account for data correlations when computing the significance of both tensions and excess confirmation while remaining statistically optimal. We discuss and thoroughly characterize different approaches commenting on the ones that have the best behavior in practical applications. We complement the calculation of their statistical distribution within the Gaussian model with one estimator that takes non-Gaussianities fully into account. To illustrate the use of our techniques, we apply these estimators to supernovae measurements of the distance-redshift relation, absolutely calibrated by the local distance ladder. The suite of best estimators that we discuss finds results that are in excellent agreement between estimators and find no indications of significant internal inconsistencies in this data set above the 1% probability threshold. Furthermore, this shows the robustness of local determinations of the Hubble constant to features in the distance-redshift relation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗