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About the Complex Natural and Engineered Systems Pillar

Los Alamos National Laboratory is a world leader in applying multi-disciplinary science to complex systems within the Complex Natural and Engineered Systems (CNES) challenge areas. Our search for solutions requires science and technology innovation, as well as an integrated experiment, theory, and modeling and simulation approach. Our research and development spans from improving engineered systems such as nuclear weapons and the power grid, to understanding the interface of human and engineered systems from the subsurface to space, to studying how complex natural systems such as disease and climate impact humanity.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Biologically-Inspired Concepts for Autonomic Self-Protection in Multiagent Systems

Biologically-inspired autonomous and autonomic systems (AAS) are essentially concerned with creating self-directed and self-managing systems based on metaphors &om nature and the human body, such as the autonomic nervous system. Agent technologies have been identified as a key enabler for engineering autonomy and autonomicity in systems, both in terms of retrofitting into legacy systems and in designing new systems. Handing over responsibility to systems themselves raises concerns for humans with regard to safety and security. This paper reports on the continued investigation into a strand of research on how to engineer self-protection mechanisms into systems to assist in encouraging confidence regarding security when utilizing autonomy and autonomicity. This includes utilizing the apoptosis and quiescence metaphors to potentially provide a self-destruct or self-sleep signal between autonomic agents when needed, and an ALice signal to facilitate self-identification and self-certification between anonymous autonomous agents and systems.

Sterritt, Roy↗

Mapping Nitrogen Pathways in Organic Manure through GCAM

As the world has become more and more globalized, a need for a comprehensive and extensive modelling system that maps out the vast majority of processes and items around the world and can display how interdependent they are. Furthermore, such a model should be able to predict future processes and values such that it can guide scientific thinking and policy. This is where the importance of GCAM becomes so apparent. GCAM, the Global Change Analysis Model, that incorporates many different fields and can predict such a wide variety of processes. As the model expands and encompasses more fields and goes into greater detail, there is a need for previously incorporated processes to be further fleshed out. My project is dedicated to creating the organic nitrogen fertilizer pathway, such that there are two nitrogen fertilizer pathways, synthetic and organic (manure). Previously, only synthetic fertilizer was included, with all organic fertilizer (manure) being omitted from the model. Developing the synthetic path is relatively easy, as the process for creating synthetic fertilizer is an industrial process that has been perfected over decades, and thus has a very precise input/output coefficient of nitrogen, but determining that same coefficient for organic manure is much harder, because, well, digestion is not an industrial process, especially considering the many different types of animals have different processes, and a good amount of the manure they produce won’t be applied to the soil. I obtained data from the UN’s FAO on manure nitrogen applied to soil, and filled in the gaps and created many different visualizations to help comprehend the data. These findings will foster a greater understanding of nitrogen flows, which is crucial to fields like industrial agriculture, polluting runoff, and nitrifying bacteria and archaea in the soil.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Man-Made Closed Ecological Systems as Model of Natural Ecosystems and as Means to Provide High Quality of Human Life in Adverse Environment

For its more than thirty year long history, the experimental creation of closed ecological systems has from its very sources been distinctly and strongly motivated by the development of human life-support systems for space. As the trend developed its fundamental significance and broad opportunities of terrestrial applications of the technologies under development were coming to the foreground. Nowadays, it can be argued that development of closed ecosystems is experimental foundation of a new branch of ecology biospherics, the goal of which is to comprehend the regularities of existence of the biosphere as a unique in the Universe (in that part of it that we know, at least) closed ecosystem. Closed technologies can be implemented in life-support systems under adverse conditions of life on the Earth - in Arctic and Antarctic latitudes, deserts, high mountains or deep in the ocean, as well as under the conditions of polluted water and air. In space where the environment is hostile for life all around the cell of life should be sealed and the life-support system as close to the ideally closed cyclic turnover of the matter as possible. Under terrestrial conditions designers should strive for maximum closure of the limiting factor: water - in deserts, oxygen - in high mountains, energy - in polar latitudes, etc. Essential closure of a life-support systems withstands also pollution of the environment by the wastes of human vital activity. This is of particular importance for the quarantine of visited planets, and on the Earth under the conditions of deficient heat in high latitudes and water in and areas. The report describes experimental ecosystem 'BIOS' and exohabitats being designed on its basis, which are adapted to various conditions, described capacities of the Center for Closed Ecosystems in Drasnoyarsk for international collaboration in research and education in this field.

Gitelson, I. I.↗

Tool for Human-Systems Integration Assessment: HSI Scorecard

This paper describes the development and rationale for a human-systems integration (HSI) scorecard that can be used in reviews of vehicle specification and design. This tool can be used to assess whether specific HSI related criteria have been met as part of a project milestone or critical event, such as technical reviews, crew station reviews, mockup evaluations, or even review of major plans or processes. Examples of HSI related criteria include Human Performance Capabilities, Health Management, Human System Interfaces, Anthropometry and Biomechanics, and Natural and Induced Environments. The tool is not intended to evaluate requirements compliance and verification, but to review how well the human related systems have been considered for the specific event and to identify gaps and vulnerabilities from an HSI perspective. The scorecard offers common basis, and criteria for discussions among system managers, evaluators, and design engineers. Furthermore, the scorecard items highlight the main areas of system development that need to be followed during system lifecycle. The ratings provide a repeatable quantitative measure to what has been often seen as only subjective commentary. Thus, the scorecard is anticipated to be a useful HSI tool to communicate review results to the institutional and the project office management.

Whitmore, Nihriban↗

Reviews and syntheses: Variable inundation across Earth's terrestrial ecosystems

Abstract. The structure, function, and dynamics of Earth's terrestrial ecosystems are profoundly influenced by how often (frequency) and how long (duration) they are inundated with water. A diverse array of natural and human-engineered systems experience temporally variable inundation whereby they fluctuate between inundated and non-inundated states. Variable inundation spans extreme events to predictable sub-daily cycles. Variably inundated ecosystems (VIEs) include hillslopes, non-perennial streams, wetlands, floodplains, temporary ponds, tidal systems, storm-impacted coastal zones, and human-engineered systems. VIEs are diverse in terms of inundation regimes, water chemistry and flow velocity, soil and sediment properties, vegetation, and many other properties. The spatial and temporal scales of variable inundation are vast, ranging from sub-meter to whole landscapes and from sub-hourly to multi-decadal. The broad range of system types and scales makes it challenging to predict the hydrology, biogeochemistry, ecology, and physical evolution of VIEs. Despite all experiencing the loss and gain of an overlying water column, VIEs are rarely considered together in conceptual, theoretical, modeling, or measurement frameworks and approaches. Studying VIEs together has the potential to generate mechanistic understanding that is transferable across a much broader range of environmental conditions, relative to knowledge generated by studying any one VIE type. We postulate that enhanced transferability will be important for predicting changes in VIE function in response to global change. Here we aim to catalyze cross-VIE science that studies drivers and impacts of variable inundation across Earth's VIEs. To this end, we complement expert mini-reviews of eight major VIE systems with overviews of VIE-relevant methods and challenges associated with scale. We conclude with perspectives on how cross-VIE science can derive transferable understanding via unifying conceptual models in which the impacts of variable inundation are studied across multi-dimensional environmental space.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lightning NOx Estimates from Space-Based Lightning Imagers

The intense heating of air by a lightning channel, and subsequent rapid cooling, leads to the production of lightning nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) as discussed in Chameides [1979]. In turn, the lightning nitrogen oxides (or "LNOx" for brevity) indirectly influences the Earth's climate because the LNOx molecules are important in controlling the concentration of ozone (O3) and hydroxyl radicals (OH) in the atmosphere. Climate is most sensitive to O3 in the upper troposphere, and LNOx is the most important source of NOx in the upper troposphere at tropical and subtropical latitudes; hence, lightning is a useful parameter to monitor for climate assessments. The National Climate Assessment (NCA) program was created in response to the Congressionally-mandated Global Change Research Act (GCRA) of 1990. Thirteen US government organizations participate in the NCA program which examines the effects of global change on the natural environment, human health and welfare, energy production and use, land and water resources, human social systems, transportation, agriculture, and biological diversity. The NCA focuses on natural and human-induced trends in global change, and projects major trends 25 to 100 years out. In support of the NCA, the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) continues to assess lightning-climate inter-relationships. This activity applies a variety of NASA assets to monitor in detail the changes in both the characteristics of ground- and space- based lightning observations as they pertain to changes in climate. In particular, changes in lightning characteristics over the conterminous US (CONUS) continue to be examined by this author using data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Lightning Imaging Sensor. In this study, preliminary estimates of LNOx trends derived from TRMM/LIS lightning optical energy observations in the 17 yr period 1998-2014 are provided. This represents an important first step in testing the ability to make remote retrievals of LNOx from a satellite-based lightning sensor. As is shown, the methodology can also be directly applied to more recently launched lightning mappers, such as the Geostationary Lightning Mapper, and the International Space Station LIS.

Koshak, William J.↗

3D X-Ray Luggage-Screening System

A three-dimensional (3D) x-ray luggage- screening system has been proposed to reduce the fatigue experienced by human inspectors and increase their ability to detect weapons and other contraband. The system and variants thereof could supplant thousands of xray scanners now in use at hundreds of airports in the United States and other countries. The device would be applicable to any security checkpoint application where current two-dimensional scanners are in use. A conventional x-ray luggage scanner generates a single two-dimensional (2D) image that conveys no depth information. Therefore, a human inspector must scrutinize the image in an effort to understand ambiguous-appearing objects as they pass by at high speed on a conveyor belt. Such a high level of concentration can induce fatigue, causing the inspector to reduce concentration and vigilance. In addition, because of the lack of depth information, contraband objects could be made more difficult to detect by positioning them near other objects so as to create x-ray images that confuse inspectors. The proposed system would make it unnecessary for a human inspector to interpret 2D images, which show objects at different depths as superimposed. Instead, the system would take advantage of the natural human ability to infer 3D information from stereographic or stereoscopic images. The inspector would be able to perceive two objects at different depths, in a more nearly natural manner, as distinct 3D objects lying at different depths. Hence, the inspector could recognize objects with greater accuracy and less effort. The major components of the proposed system would be similar to those of x-ray luggage scanners now in use. As in a conventional x-ray scanner, there would be an x-ray source. Unlike in a conventional scanner, there would be two x-ray image sensors, denoted the left and right sensors, located at positions along the conveyor that are upstream and downstream, respectively (see figure). X-ray illumination may be provided by a single source or by two sources. The position of the conveyor would be detected to provide a means of matching the appropriate left- and right-eye images of an item under inspection. The appropriate right- and left-eye images of an item would be displayed simultaneously to the right and left eyes, respectively, of the human inspector, using commercially available stereo display screens. The human operator could adjust viewing parameters for maximum viewing comfort. The stereographic images thus generated would differ from true stereoscopic images by small distortions that are characteristic of radiographic images in general, but these distortions would not diminish the value of the images for identifying distinct objects at different depths.

Fernandez, Kenneth↗

Distributed control architecture for real-time telerobotic operation

The emerging field of telerobotics places new demands on control system architecture to allow both autonomous operations and natural human-machine interfacing. The feasibility of multiprocessor systems performing parallel control computations is realizable. A practical distribution of control processors is presented and the issues involved in the realization of this architecture are discussed. A prototype dual axis controller based on the NOVIX computer is described, and results of its implementation are discussed. Application of this type of control system to a replicated, redundant manipulator system is also described.

Martin, H. L.↗

VEVI: A Virtual Reality Tool For Robotic Planetary Explorations

The Virtual Environment Vehicle Interface (VEVI), developed by the NASA Ames Research Center's Intelligent Mechanisms Group, is a modular operator interface for direct teleoperation and supervisory control of robotic vehicles. Virtual environments enable the efficient display and visualization of complex data. This characteristic allows operators to perceive and control complex systems in a natural fashion, utilizing the highly-evolved human sensory system. VEVI utilizes real-time, interactive, 3D graphics and position / orientation sensors to produce a range of interface modalities from the flat panel (windowed or stereoscopic) screen displays to head mounted/head-tracking stereo displays. The interface provides generic video control capability and has been used to control wheeled, legged, air bearing, and underwater vehicles in a variety of different environments. VEVI was designed and implemented to be modular, distributed and easily operated through long-distance communication links, using a communication paradigm called SYNERGY.

Piguet, Laurent↗

Experimental study of visual accommodation

A summary report of a research effort related to the human visual accommodation system is presented. A theoretical study of the accommodation system was made. Subsequent effort was aimed at the development of specialized instrumentation for experiments designed to lead to understanding the nature of the control system in human accommodation. The necessary instrumentation consisted primarily of: (1) an automatic optometer to measure the state of eye focus, (2) a focus stimulator device to control the apparent optical distance to any target, and (3) a two-dimensional eye tracker. The concepts and designs of the first two instruments have been published in the open literature, but this report contains the first detailed treatment of the Purkinje eye tracker developed under this program. The report also discusses an accommodation lag model to explain the ability of the eye to apparently know the polarity of focus error even though the blur on the retina is to a first-approximation an even function. The interaction of the accommodation and eye movement systems is also discussed, as is the ability to train the visual accommodation system to a surprisingly responsive condition in only a few hours of training.

Cornsweet, T. N.↗

Does human cognition allow Human Factors (HF) certification of advanced aircrew systems?

This paper has examined the requirements of HF specification and certification within advanced or complex aircrew systems. It suggests reasons for current inadequacies in the use of HF in the design process, giving some examples in support, and suggesting an avenue towards the improvement of the HF certification process. The importance of human cognition to the operation and performance of advanced aircrew systems has been stressed. Many of the shortfalls of advanced aircrew systems must be attributed to over automated designs that show little consideration on either the mental limits or the cognitive capabilities of the human system component. Traditional approaches to system design and HF certification are set within an over physicalistic foundation. Also, traditionally it was assumed that physicalistic system functions could be attributed to either the human or the machine on a one to one basis. Moreover, any problems associated with the parallel needs, or promoting human understanding alongside system operation and direction, were generally equated in reality by the natural flexibility and adaptability of human skills. The consideration of the human component of a complex system is seen as being primarily based on manifestations of human behavior to the almost total exclusion of any appreciation of unobservable human mental and cognitive processes. The argument of this paper is that the considered functionality of any complex human-machine system must contain functions that are purely human and purely cognitive. Human-machine system reliability ultimately depends on human reliability and dependability and, therefore, on the form and frequency of cognitive processes that have to be conducted to support system performance. The greater the demand placed by an advanced aircraft system on the human component's basic knowledge processes or cognition, rather than on skill, the more insiduous the effects the human may have on that system. This paper discusses one example of an attempt to devise an improved method of specificaiton and certification with relation to the advanced aircrew system, that of the RN Merlin helicopter. The method is realized to have limitations in practice, these mainly associated with the late production of the system specification in relation to the system development process. The need for a careful appreciation of the capabilities and support needs of human cognition within the design process of a complex man machine system has been argued, especially with relation to the concept of system functionality. Unlike the physicalistic Fitts list, a new classification of system functionality is proposed, namely: (1) equipment - system equipment related; (2) cognitive - human cognition related; and (3) associated - necessary combinatin of equipment and cognitive. This paper has not proposed a method for a fuller consideration of cognition within systems design, but has suggested the need for such a method and indicated an avenue towards its development. Finally, the HF certification of advanced aircrew systems is seen as only being possible in a qualified sense until the important functions of human cognition are considered within the system design process. (This paper contains the opinions of its authors and does not necessarily refledt the standpoint of their respective organizations).

Macleod, Iain S.↗

Analyzing the Impacts of Natural Environments on Launch and Landing Availability for NASA's Eploration Systems Development Programs

NASA is developing new capabilities for human and scientific exploration beyond Earth orbit. Natural environments information is an important asset for NASA's development of the next generation space transportation system as part of the Exploration Systems Development Program, which includes the Space Launch System (SLS) and MultiPurpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) Programs. Natural terrestrial environment conditions - such as wind, lightning and sea states - can affect vehicle safety and performance during multiple mission phases ranging from prelaunch ground processing to landing and recovery operations, including all potential abort scenarios. Space vehicles are particularly sensitive to these environments during the launch/ascent and the entry/landing phases of mission operations. The Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Natural Environments Branch provides engineering design support for NASA space vehicle projects and programs by providing design engineers and mission planners with natural environments definitions as well as performing custom analyses to help characterize the impacts the natural environment may have on vehicle performance. One such analysis involves assessing the impact of natural environments to operational availability. Climatological time series of operational surface weather observations are used to calculate probabilities of meeting or exceeding various sets of hypothetical vehicle-specific parametric constraint thresholds.

Altino, Karen M.↗

Power Distribution Designing For Resilience Application (powdder)

Power Distribution Designing for Resilience Application (PowDDeR) is a software application to succinctly capture the capabilities of a power system to respond to disturbances, including natural or human (malicious or errors) caused disturbances. The software provides a measure of resilience for power systems.

McJunkin, TimothyR↗

Elucidating and predicting the dynamic evolution of water and land systems due to natural and energy-related forcings

Focal Area(s): 3. Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI; & 1. Data acquisition and assimilation enabled by machine learning, AI, and advanced methods including experimental/network design/optimization, unsupervised learning (including deep learning), and hardware-related efforts involving AI (e.g., edge computing). Science Challenge: Interactions between water, land, and energy systems are complex and occur on a variety of scales, ranging from local to basinal to regional. Accurately predicting the behavior of ground water and surface water systems for 5-10 years and beyond requires an understanding of the current system and the ability to model both the natural system at scale and human-induced forcings related to energy and other activities. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) combined with modern compilation and integration efforts for U.S. groundwater and surface water systems present potential solutions to bolstering detailed physics-based models of these systems. Big data tied with ML and physics-based modeling can drive breakthroughs in understanding the earth system, but research is often impeded by data access (e.g., privacy issues), quality, formats, gaps, multi-source, multi-scale, integration, and spatiotemporal challenges. Effective integration of real data and simulated (synthetic) data that fill gaps is critical. Overcoming these complex data and model integration challenges will enable a transformational approach to acquiring enhanced understanding of environmental systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Proceedings of the 1993 Conference on Intelligent Computer-Aided Training and Virtual Environment Technology, Volume 1

These proceedings are organized in the same manner as the conference's contributed sessions, with the papers grouped by topic area. These areas are as follows: VE (virtual environment) training for Space Flight, Virtual Environment Hardware, Knowledge Aquisition for ICAT (Intelligent Computer-Aided Training) & VE, Multimedia in ICAT Systems, VE in Training & Education (1 & 2), Virtual Environment Software (1 & 2), Models in ICAT systems, ICAT Commercial Applications, ICAT Architectures & Authoring Systems, ICAT Education & Medical Applications, Assessing VE for Training, VE & Human Systems (1 & 2), ICAT Theory & Natural Language, ICAT Applications in the Military, VE Applications in Engineering, Knowledge Acquisition for ICAT, and ICAT Applications in Aerospace.

Hyde, Patricia R.↗

Striped Mullet Migration Patterns in the Indian River Lagoon: A Network Analysis Approach to Spatial Fisheries Management

Striped mullet (Mugil cephalus) are numerically abundant forage fish, highly valuable as prey and commercially valuable to humans. From September to December, mullet in the Indian River Lagoon (IRL), Florida undergo an annual migration from inshore foraging habitats to oceanic spawning sites. However, their migratory pathways, in particular their intra-estuarine movement pathways, remain unknown. To address this knowledge gap, we utilized passive acoustic telemetry to assess the movement patterns of M. cephalus within the IRL. Thirty-two fish were tagged, generating usable tracks from 18 individuals. The mean (±s.d.) time that fish were detected in the array was ~38 ± 90 days, with the longest at 444 days. We also document the first evidence of skipped spawning in M. cephalus inhabiting waters of the southeastern United States. These data suggest impoundments around the Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge appear to serve as important refugia for striped mullet while the Banana and Indian Rivers act as corridors during their inshore migratory movements. Through spatial fisheries management, high value habitat and connective elements utilized by mullet and other vital forage fish may be identified, to benefit both natural and human dynamics in estuarine systems.

Acoustic telemetry↗