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NASA NTRS2021

Evaluating the Large-Scale Hydrological Cycle Response within the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) Ensemble

The mid-Pliocene (∼3 Ma) is one of the most recent warm periods with high CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and resulting high temperatures, and it is often cited as an analog for near-term future climate change. Here, we apply a moisture budget analysis to investigate the response of the large-scale hydrological cycle at low latitudes within a 13-model ensemble from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The results show that increased atmospheric moisture content within the mid-Pliocene ensemble (due to the thermodynamic effect) results in wetter conditions over the deep tropics, i.e., the Pacific intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the Maritime Continent, and drier conditions over the subtropics. Note that the dynamic effect plays a more important role than the thermodynamic effect in regional precipitation minus evaporation (PmE) changes (i.e., northward ITCZ shift and wetter northern Indian Ocean). The thermodynamic effect is offset to some extent by a dynamic effect involving a northward shift of the Hadley circulation that dries the deep tropics and moistens the subtropics in the Northern Hemisphere (i.e., the subtropical Pacific). From the perspective of Earth's energy budget, the enhanced southward cross-equatorial atmospheric transport (0.22 PW), induced by the hemispheric asymmetries of the atmospheric energy, favors an approximately 1∘ northward shift of the ITCZ. The shift of the ITCZ reorganizes atmospheric circulation, favoring a northward shift of the Hadley circulation. In addition, the Walker circulation consistently shifts westward within PlioMIP2 models, leading to wetter conditions over the northern Indian Ocean. The PlioMIP2 ensemble highlights that an imbalance of interhemispheric atmospheric energy during the mid-Pliocene could have led to changes in the dynamic effect, offsetting the thermodynamic effect and, hence, altering mid-Pliocene hydroclimate.

mid-Pliocene↗
NASA NTRS2023

Investigating Hydroclimatic Impacts of the 168–158 BCE Volcanic Quartet and Their Relevance to the Nile River Basin and Egyptian History

The Ptolemaic era (305–30 BCE) is an important period of Ancient Egyptian history known for its material and scientific advances, but also intermittent political and social unrest in the form of (sometimes widespread) revolts against the Ptolemaic elites. While the role of environmental pressures has long been overlooked in this period of Egyptian history, ice-core-based volcanic histories have identified the period as experiencing multiple notable eruptions, and a repeated temporal association between explosive volcanism and revolt has recently been noted. Here we analyze the global and regional (Nile River basin) hydroclimatic response to a unique historical sequence of four large and closely timed volcanic eruptions (first a tropical one, followed by three extratropical northern hemispheric events) between 168 and 158 BCE, a particularly troubled period in Ptolemaic history for which we now provide a more detailed hydroclimatic context. The NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) ModelE2.1 Earth system model simulates a strong radiative response with a radiative forcing (top of atmosphere) of −7.5 W m−2 (following the first eruption) and −2.5 W m−2 (after each of the three remaining eruptions) at a global scale. Associated with this, we observe a global surface cooling of the order of 1.5 ∘C following the first (tropical) eruption, with the following three extratropical eruptions extending the cooling period for more than 15 years. Consequently, this series of eruptions is observed to constrain the northward migration of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) during the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon season, and major monsoon zones (African, South Asian, and East Asian) were seen to experience a suppression of rainfall of >1 mm d−1 during the monsoon (JJAS) season averaged for 2 years after each eruption. A substantial suppression of the Indian and North African summer monsoon (over the Nile River headwater region) was seen to strongly affect the modeled river flow in the catchment and discharge at river mouth. River mass flow over the basin was observed to decrease by 29 % and 38 % relative to an unperturbed (non-volcanic) annual mean flow in the first and second year, respectively, after the first (i.e., tropical) eruption. A moderate decrease ranging between 5 % and 18 % was observed after the third and fourth (extratropical) eruptions. These results indicate, in sum, that the first eruption likely produced a strong hydroclimate response, with the following extratropical eruptions prolonging this. These results also support the recently hypothesized association between ice-core-based signals of explosive volcanism and hydroclimatic variability during the Ptolemaic era, including the suppression of the agriculturally critical Nile summer flooding.

hydroclimate impacts↗
DOE OSTI2024

The first ensemble of kilometer-scale simulations of a hydrological year over the third pole

An accurate understanding of the current and future water cycle over the Third Pole is of great societal importance, given the role this region plays as a water tower for densely populated areas downstream. An emerging and promising approach for skillful climate assessments over regions of complex terrain is kilometer-scale climate modeling. As a foundational step towards such simulations over the Third Pole, we present a multi-model and multi-physics ensemble of kilometer-scale regional simulations for the hydrological year of October 2019 to September 2020. The ensemble consists of 13 simulations performed by an international consortium of 10 research groups, configured with a horizontal grid spacing ranging from 2.2 to 4 km covering all of the Third Pole region. These simulations are driven by ERA5 and are part of a Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment Flagship Pilot Study on Convection-Permitting Third Pole. The simulations are compared against available gridded and in-situ observations and remote-sensing data, to assess the performance and spread of the model ensemble compared to the driving reanalysis during the cold and warm seasons. Although ensemble evaluation is hindered by large differences between the gridded precipitation datasets used as a reference over this region, we show that the ensemble improves on many warm-season precipitation metrics compared with ERA5, including most wet-day and hour statistics, and also adds value in the representation of wet spells in both seasons. As such, the ensemble will provide an invaluable resource for future improvements in the process understanding of the hydroclimate of this remote but important region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The changing nature of hydroclimatic risks across South Africa

We present results from large ensembles of projected twenty-first century changes in seasonal precipitation and near-surface air temperature for the nation of South Africa. These ensembles are a result of combining Monte Carlo projections from a human-Earth system model of intermediate complexity with pattern-scaled responses from climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). These future ensemble scenarios consider a range of global actions to abate emissions through the twenty-first century. We evaluate distributions of surface-air temperature and precipitation change over three sub-national regions: western, central, and eastern South Africa. In all regions, we find that without any emissions or climate targets in place, there is a greater than 50% likelihood that mid-century temperatures will increase threefold over the current climate’s two-standard deviation range of variability. However, scenarios that consider more aggressive climate targets all but eliminate the risk of these salient temperature increases. A preponderance of risk toward decreased precipitation (3 to 4 times higher than increased) exists for western and central South Africa. Strong climate targets abate evolving regional hydroclimatic risks. Under a target to limit global climate warming to 1.5 °C by 2100, the risk of precipitation changes within South Africa toward the end of this century (2065–2074) is commensurate to the risk during the 2030s without any global climate target. Thus, these regional hydroclimate risks over South Africa could be delayed by 30 years and, in doing so, provide invaluable lead-time for national efforts to prepare, fortify, and/or adapt.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Refining water and carbon fluxes modeling in terrestrial ecosystems via plant hydraulics integration

Plant hydraulics substantially affects terrestrial water and carbon cycles by modulating water transport and carbon assimilation. Despite improved drought simulations in certain ecosystems through their integration into land surface models (LSMs), the broader application of plant hydraulics in diverse ecosystems and hydroclimates is still underexplored. Here, in this study, we implemented the recently developed Noah-Multiparameterization Land Surface Model (Noah-MP LSM) equipped with a plant hydraulics scheme (Noah-MP-PHS) across 40 FLUXNET sites globally. Employing the Shuffled Complex Evolution-University of Arizona (SCE-UA) auto-calibration algorithm, we optimized key plant hydraulics parameters for these sites spanning eight vegetation types in both arid and humid climates. Noah-MP-PHS significantly improves the simulation of evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary production (GPP) by better representing atmospheric and soil water stress compared to traditional soil hydraulic schemes (SHSs, such as Noah and CLM). The augmented Noah-MP-PHS models reduce surface flux overestimation and underestimation, exhibiting an average increase of 0.14 and 0.15 in Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) compared to Noah and CLM, respectively. The explicit consideration of plant capacitance in PHS reveals substantial deep-layer and nocturnal root water uptake especially under dry conditions. We employed eXplainable Machine learning (XML) to quantify the model’s relative sensitivity to newly introduced leaf-, stem and root-related parameters in PHS. The sensitivity analysis reveals a rise in root parameter importance and a decline in leaf and stem parameters as conditions shift from humid to arid. These findings indicate that as aridity states vary, the most influential parameters affecting surface fluxes variation may change in parameter calibration for PHS applications. Our findings underscore the importance of incorporating plant hydraulics into LSMs to enhance simulations of terrestrial water and carbon dynamics. These findings are crucial for understanding ecosystem responses to global climate changes and guide the broader application of PHS at larger scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The productivity of perennial crops miscanthus and switchgrass is more resistant to vapor pressure deficit stress than maize

Rising atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (D) with warming is an increasingly important driver of crop productivity loss, yet the relative sensitivity of conventional seed crops and alternative perennial crops remains poorly resolved. In this study, we combined a 9-year eddy covariance carbon flux record (2008 – 2016) with 600+ midday leaf water potential (ψ L ) measurements (2024 – 2025) from adjacent maize (Zea mays), miscanthus (Miscanthus x giganteus), and switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) plots to: (1) quantify the limitations of elevated D on crop-specific productivity and (2) evaluate how these responses vary as a function of soil moisture (Θ) status. We found that maize strictly regulated ψ L and its gross primary productivity (GPP) was strongly reduced by increasing D. In contrast, miscanthus and switchgrass allowed larger ψ L declines and sustained higher GPP under similar moisture constraints. D exerted a larger limitation on maize GPP than Θ, but D-driven declines were less severe when accompanied by high Θ. GPP sensitivity to D was also influenced by Θ for miscanthus and switchgrass, but the buffering effect was stronger compared to maize. Specifically, high D paired with high Θ were the most productive conditions for the perennials, reflecting temperature-driven gains in photosynthetic efficiency when evaporative stress was mitigated by sufficient soil water supply. Overall, miscanthus and switchgrass displayed greater resistance to atmospheric drought and more stable GPP across hydroclimate variability than maize. These findings highlight that maize is more vulnerable to future projections of rising D than miscanthus or switchgrass.

drought↗
DOE OSTI2022

The root-zone soil moisture spectrum in a mediterranean ecosystem

Storage of water within soil pores of the root zone introduce memory effects in the dynamics of soil moisture that are considerably longer than the integral timescale of many atmospheric processes. Thus, hydro-climatic states can be “sustained” through land-surface heat and water vapor fluxes primarily because they can “feed off” on this long-term soil moisture memory. Root-zone soil moisture memory is only but one feature characterizing the spectrum of soil moisture dynamics, which is analyzed here using a combination of long-term measurements and models. In particular, the spectrum of root-zone soil moisture content in a Mediterranean ecosystem is examined using 14-years of half-hourly measurements. A distinguishing hydro-climatic feature in such ecosystems is that sources (mainly rainfall) and sinks (mainly evapotranspiration) of soil moisture are roughly out of phase with each other. For over 4 decades of time scales and 7 decades of energy, the canonical shape of the measured soil moisture spectrum is shown to be approximately Lorentzian determined by the soil moisture variance and its memory but with two exceptions: the occurrences of a peak at diurnal-to-daily time scales and a weaker peak at near annual time scales. Model calculations and spectral analysis demonstrate that diurnal and seasonal variations in hydroclimate forcing responsible for variability in evapotranspiration had minor impact on the normalized shape of the soil moisture spectrum. However, their impact was captured by adjustments in the temporal variance. These findings indicate that precipitation and not evapotranspiration variability dominates the multi-scaling properties of soil moisture variability consistent with prior climate model simulations. Furthermore, the soil moisture memory inferred by the annual peak of soil moisture (340 d) is consistent with climate model simulations, while the memory evaluated from the loss function of a linearized mass balance approach leads to a smaller value (50 d), highlighting the effect of weak non-stationarity on soil moisture variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A novel approach to increase accuracy in remotely sensed evapotranspiration through basin water balance and flux tower constraints

Remote sensing-derived evapotranspiration (RSET) products capture the spatiotemporal variations of evapotranspiration (ET) from field to basin scales with unprecedented details. However, their accuracy varies across RSET estimation methods and diverse hydroclimate regions. While ET modeling efforts to account for biophysical processes and controlling parameters have made good progress in recent years, a parallel approach of integrating in-situ ET with RSET could reduce biases in RSET products. Basin water balance ET (WBET) and flux tower ET are widely applied to evaluate RSET accuracy, yet such ET measurements are rarely used for RSET bias corrections, especially for large area applications. To address this issue, we propose a novel approach: the water balance equivalence (WABE) method, which generates spatially continuous WBET for correcting biases in RSET products. The WABE method computes synthetic WBET by integrating observed WBET and flux tower-derived FLUXCOM ET, which fills the spatial gaps of observed WBET and generates a spatially continuous WBET dataset. Synthetic WBET (2002–2015 annual average) of eight-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC8) basins across the conterminous United States (CONUS), constituting 44 % (887 out of 2035 basins) of CONUS basins, was determined within 2.0 % (RMSE = 12 %) of observed WBET at CONUS and between 1–12 % (RMSE = 3–33 %) across 18 regions in CONUS. With WABE-based bias corrections, the overall annual bias of RSET decreased from 10 % (RMSE = 34 %) to 6 % (RMSE = 26 %) across 37 flux tower sites. The WABE method offers a new approach for RSET accuracy improvement and shows great promise for large area implementations with a potential to yield substantial benefits for building accurate basin water budgets and water management decisions.

Khand, Kul↗
DOE OSTI2022

Holocene paleoclimate change in the western US: The importance of chronology in discerning patterns and drivers

We report sediment in lakes and meadows forms a powerful archive that can be used to reconstruct environmental change through time. Reconstructions of lake level, of chemical, biological, and hydrological conditions, and of surrounding vegetation provide detailed information about past climate conditions, both locally and regionally. Indeed, most of our current knowledge of centennial- to millennial-scale climate variability in the arid western United States, where information about past hydroclimate is particularly important, comes from such sediment-based reconstructions. The pressing need for robust, precise predictions of future conditions is a significant motivation for paleoclimate science, and current research questions frequently require Holocene reconstructions to be resolved at sub-centennial timescales. Increasingly, regional syntheses seek to identify synoptic-scale patterns similar to those defined from modern observations (seasonal, interannual, multi-decadal, etc.) or to compare with the output of climate model simulations. However, the age control on existing records, especially those more than about 20 years old, is often sufficient only for millennial-scale interpretation. Here we assess the age control for 84 published and unpublished records from lakes and meadows in the Great Basin, California, and desert southwest, and use Bayesian modeling to evaluate the 95% uncertainty ranges for the 42 best-dated records. In the Late Holocene, about half of the 42 records have <400-year mean uncertainty ranges; however, high-precision age control is especially critical for young records, used to develop an accurate understanding of a proxy’s response to known climate variations. In the Middle Holocene, records vary from 400 to >800-year mean uncertainty and records of the Early Holocene have 600- to >1400-year mean uncertainty ranges. We find that the largest control on modeled uncertainties is dating density, with at least 2 dates/kyr being optimal and suggest obtaining “range-finder” dates at the onset of a study to better predict the total number of dates needed for an adequate age model. Such a density avoids a commonly observed phenomenon of significant peaks in uncertainty arising in gaps between age control points. Analysis of the uncertainties associated with proxy shifts reveal that more than half are >400 years. Although such large uncertainties currently prevent sub-centennial interpretations in most cases, increased dating density, strategic use of limited funds (including budgeting for a 2 date/kyr minimum at the proposal stage), construction of age-depth models with Bayesian methods, and critical evaluation of chronological uncertainty will shed light on past climate variability at finer timescales, enhancing our understanding of global and regional drivers of western U.S. climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A high-resolution record of Late Holocene drought in the eastern Sierra Nevada (California, USA) from June Lake carbonate geochemistry

As historic drought conditions become more common in western North America, Late Quaternary hydroclimate records become vital for putting present anthropogenic conditions into a longer-term context. Here, we establish a high-resolution record of drought for the eastern Sierra Nevada (California) using lacustrine carbonates from well-dated sediment cores. We used oxygen and carbon stable-isotope ratios, combined with high-resolution scanning X-ray fluorescence counts of calcium (Ca) and titanium (Ti), to reconstruct the drought record over the last 4600 years in June Lake. We found elevated δ 18 O and δ 13 C carbonate isotope values coinciding with peaks in both total inorganic carbon and Ca/Ti, suggesting enhanced carbonate precipitation in response to evaporative concentration of lake water. At least six intervals of prolonged (centennial-scale) carbonate deposition were identified, including three pulses during the Late Holocene Dry Period (LHDP; ~3500–2000 cal yr BP), the Medieval Climate Anomaly (~1200–800 cal yr BP), and the Current Warm Period, which began around 100 cal yr BP. This record highlights the complexities of the LHDP, an interval that was more variable at June Lake than has been previously described in regional records.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Influences of North Pacific Ocean Domain Extent on the Western U.S. Winter Hydroclimatology in Variable-Resolution CESM

Variable-resolution global climate models (VRGCMs) are a dynamical downscaling method that can reach spatiotemporal scales needed for regional climate assessments. Over the years, several users of VRGCMs have assumed where the location and extent of the refinement domain should be based on knowledge of the prevailing storm tracks and resolution dependence of important regional climate processes (e.g., atmospheric rivers [ARs] and orographic uplift), but the effect of high-resolution domain size and extent on the simulation of downstream hydroclimatic phenomena has not been systematically evaluated. Here, we use variable resolution in the Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) to perform such a test. To do this, three VR-CESM grids were generated that span the entire, two thirds, and one third of the North Pacific and evaluated for a 30-year climatology using Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project protocols. Simulations are compared with reanalysis products offshore (fifth-generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis [ERA5]) and onshore (Livneh, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.42, and Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model [PRISM]) of the western United States. The westward expansion of refinement domain influenced integrated vapor transport (IVT), which was generally high biased but minimally impacted AR characteristics. Due to slight differences in landfalling AR counts in the western United States, California winter precipitation generally improved with westward expansion of the refinement domain. Western U.S. mountain snowpack and surface temperatures were insensitive to refinement domain size and were more influenced by changes in topographic resolution and/or land surface model version. Here, given minimal dependence of simulated western U.S. hydroclimate on refinement domain size over the North Pacific, we advise future VR-CESM studies to focus grid resolution on better resolving land surface heterogeneity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessing Shifts in Regional Hydroclimatic Conditions of U.S. River Basins in Response to Climate Change over the 21st Century

Characterization of shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions helps reduce negative consequences on agriculture, environment, economy, society, and ecosystem. This study assesses shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions across the conterminous United States in response to climate change over the 21 st Century. The hydrological responses of five downscaled climate models from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) dataset ranging from the driest to wettest and least warm to hottest were simulated using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions at 8-digit hydrologic unit scale (HUC8) were evaluated by the magnitude and direction of movements in the Budyko space. HUC8 river basins were then clustered into seven unique hydroclimatic behavior groups using the K-means method. A tree classification method was proposed to illustrate the relationships between hydroclimatic behavior groups and regional characteristics. The results indicate that hydroclimatic responses may vary from a river basin to another, but basins in the same neighborhood follow a similar movement in the Budyko space. The systematic hydroclimatic behavior of river basins is highly associated with their regional landform, climate, and ecosystem characteristics. Most HUC8s with Mountain, Plateau and Basin landform types will likely experience less arid conditions. However, most HUC8s with Plain landform type behave differently according to the regional ecosystem and climate. This study provides a potential roadmap of shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions of U.S. river basins, which can be used to improve regional preparedness and ability of various sectors to mitigate or adapt to the impacts of future hydroclimate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Semiquantitative Estimates of Rainfall Variability During the 8.2 kyr Event in California Using Speleothem Calcium Isotope Ratios

A multiproxy record from a fast-growing stalagmite reveals variable hydroclimate on the California coast across the 8.2 kyr event and a precursor event likely caused by initial drainage of proglacial Lake Agassiz. Using speleothem δ 44 Ca, we develop the first semiquantitative estimates of paleorainfall variability for California through calibration with measurements of the modern climate and cave environment. We find that the magnitude of rainfall variability during the 8.2 kyr event approached the multiyear variability observable in the recent past (1950–2019) and the magnitude of variability during the precursor event likely exceeded this range. Additionally, we observe other instances of multidecadal variability comparable in magnitude to the precursor event during the record. Finally, our work suggests that speleothem calcium isotope ratios are a powerful semiquantitative means to reconstruct paleorainfall, although numerous factors must be assessed in each cave system before applying this approach.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Response of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers on the U.S. West Coast to Local Sea Surface Temperature Perturbations

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) play a crucial role in the hydroclimate of the U.S. west coast. While the impact of large-scale sea surface temperature (SST) patterns on ARs is well recognized, the specific roles of local SST on ARs have not been systematically investigated. Here, we analyzed the landfalling ARs from two regional climate simulations that differ only in the local SST. With local SST warming, AR frequency increases across the U.S. west coast, with comparable contributions from the spatial expansion of ARs and emergence of new ARs. AR landfalling area, inland intrusion distance, and intensity also increase, with landfalling area showing the largest sensitivity. Although local SST warming only increases the AR moisture by ~0.4%/K, AR-related precipitation increases by 3%/K, demonstrating the important impact of local SST warming on intensifying storms. Hence, local SST is important for accurate depiction of ARs and their precipitation in the western United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Tropical Indian Ocean Mediates ENSO Influence Over Central Southwest Asia During the Wet Season

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates wet season (November–April) precipitation over Central Southwest Asia (CSWA), however, intraseasonal characteristics of its influence are largely unknown, which can be important for its subseasonal to seasonal hydroclimate predictability. Here we show that the ENSO-CSWA teleconnection varies intraseasonally and is a combination of direct and indirect positive influences. The direct influence is through a Rossby wave-like pattern in the tail months. The indirect influence is through an atmospheric dipole of diabatic heating anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) as a result of ENSO-forced response, which also generates a Rossby wave-like forcing and persists throughout the wet season. ENSO exerts its strongest influence when both direct and indirect modes are in phase, while the relationship breaks down when the two modes are out of phase. The atmospheric teleconnection through the atmospheric diabatic heating anomalies in the TIO is reproducible in numerical simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Future changes in the Great Plains Low-Level Jet governed by seasonally dependent pattern changes in the North Atlantic Subtropical High

The southerly Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) plays an important role in the Central US hydroclimate, but our understanding of its response to global warming remains elusive. Here we show that the GPLLJ will intensify and intrude deeper under warming in both spring and autumn but change marginally in summer. This response is governed by seasonally dependent pattern changes of the North-Atlantic subtropical high (NASH). In spring and autumn, with a substantial poleward shift in the North America westerly jet, the NASH expands poleward notably. The anomalous surface high poleward of the NASH enhances the southerly GPLLJ to its west. In summer, however, the poleward westerly-jet shift is weak and changes in the NASH manifest a westward extension, which only marginally affects the GPLLJ. Among models, the NASH expansion and GPLLJ enhancement are correlated with the poleward jet shift, highlighting its critical role in regulating the future NASH and GPLLJ changes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sources of Subseasonal-To-Seasonal Predictability of Atmospheric Rivers and Precipitation in the Western United States

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) account for a large portion of winter precipitation in the western US. To evaluate the sources of AR and precipitation predictability at subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales, we examine the relationships between two climate modes, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), and winter hydroclimate in the western US. Our analysis uses a large ensemble of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model simulations from 1981 to 2017, facilitating the assessment of uncertainty in climate mode-AR relationship due to climate variability and short length of observations. Over the North Pacific basin, we find ENSO-related latitudinal shifts of ARs, but ENSO has little effect on basin-wide averaged AR frequency. Over the western US, there is some uncertainty in the ENSO-AR connection due to the impacts of ENSO indices and datasets. However, extreme El Niño events defined by the ENSO longitude index are consistently linked to increased landfalling AR activity. The MJO can lead to significantly enhanced or suppressed landfalling AR activity in the large-ensembles, depending on the phase of MJO and time lag, while observations are too short in length to robustly show this signal. ENSO substantially modulates the MJO-AR relationship, triggering variegated responses of landfalling ARs and AR precipitation in La Niña and El Niño years. Our findings highlight the need to evaluate concurrent effects of different climate modes on ARs and precipitation, and may shed light on a path toward more accurate subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction of ARs and precipitation over the western US.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗