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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ICESat-2 Mission: Status, Outlook, and Contributions to Polar Science

The Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) mission carries the Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS) lidar to measure the changing height of Earth surface. After more than 3 years of science data collection, ATLAS has emitted well over a trillion laser pulses and continues to operate nominally. The ICESat-2 data products were initially released in May 2019, and have been used in over 150 peer-reviewed publications to date. Recent community white papers have noted the importance of ice elevation measurements for the coming decades, and as CryoSat-2 has entered it’s second decade and future missions are uncertain, ICESat-2 will be a critical part of the Earth System Observatory for the 2020s. In the polar regions, ICESat-2 has enabled year-round sea ice freeboard measurements as well as ice sheet elevation changes on seasonal, annual, and decadal time scales when combined with other missions. These data enable measurement of change at fine spatial and temporal scales to help understand or characterize the processes driving these observations. As of this presentation, Release 005 is the current version of the along-track data products, including surface-specific products for sea ice, land ice, ground and canopy height, ocean, and inland water heights. In addition, first versions of gridded data products for land ice, sea ice, and ocean are all available. Data spans the start of the mission (14 October 2018) through early 2022. The ICESat-2 project has also begun to produce and distribute QuickLook products with a nominal 3-day latency (as opposed to the ~45-day latency of the final data products). Initial versions of these QuickLook products have elevation accuracy of ~3 meters, and geolocation accuracy of ~50 meters. All products are available through the National Snow and Ice Data Center (nsidc.org). This presentation will summarize the current state and health of the observatory, current state of the ICESat-2 data products, data product quality assessment, and outlook for the future.

ICESat-2↗
NASA NTRS2023

The Hazard Components of Representative Key Risks. The Physical Climate Perspective

The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II (WGII) to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks from climate change. These are risks expected to become severe due to the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions with the exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs holistically by assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, in these papers, such assessment cannot always be organized according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes. Often the big-picture evolution of risk has to be extrapolated from either qualitative effects of “low”, “medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C), together with consideration of the socio-economic context and possible adaptation choices. In this study we offer a representation – as systematic as possible given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels (GWLs) to the extent possible. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group I supplemented when needed by more recent literature. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with increasing GWLs has been identified. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - that link can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different GWLs remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems, in the absence of compensating changes in these systems’ exposure and vulnerability, and in the absence of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in their often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future potential evolution, an important component – if never the only one – of the future evolution of risk severity.

Representative Key Risks↗
NASA NTRS2024

PRODEM: An Annual Series of Summer DEMs (2019 through 2022) of the Marginal Areas of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Surface topography across the marginal zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet is constantly evolving in response to changing weather, season, climate, and ice dynamics. However, current digital elevation models (DEMs) for the ice sheet are usually based on data from a multi-year period, thus obscuring these changes over time. Here we present four 500 m resolution summer DEMs (PRODEMs) of the Greenland Ice Sheet marginal zone for 2019 through 2022. The PRODEMs cover the marginal zone from the ice edge to 50 km inland, hence capturing all Greenland outlet glaciers. Each PRODEM is based on data fusion of CryoSat-2 radar altimetry and ICESat-2 laser altimetry using regionally varying kriging of elevation anomalies relative to ArcticDEM. The PRODEMs are validated using leave-one-out cross-validation, and PRODEM19 is further validated against an external data set, showcasing their ability to correctly represent surface elevations within the associated spatially varying prediction uncertainties. We observe a general lowering of surface elevations during the 4-year PRODEM period, but the spatial pattern of change is highly complex and with annual changes superimposed. The PRODEMs enable detailed studies of the marginal ice sheet elevation changes. With their high spatio-temporal resolution, the PRODEMs will be of value to a wide range of researchers and users studying ice sheet dynamics and monitoring how the ice sheet responds to changing environmental conditions. PRODEMs from summer 2019 through 2022 are available at https://doi.org/10.22008/FK2/52WWHG (Winstrup, 2024), and we plan to annually update the product henceforth.

Digital Elevation Models↗
NASA NTRS2017

Impact of MODIS Sensor Calibration Updates on Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Reflectance and Albedo Trends

We evaluate Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface reflectance and albedo trends using the newly released Collection 6 (C6) MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) products over the period 2001-2016. We find that the correction of MODIS sensor degradation provided in the new C6 data products reduces the magnitude of the surface reflectance and albedo decline trends obtained from previous MODIS data (i.e., Collection 5, C5). Collection 5 and 6 data product analysis over GrIS is characterized by surface (i.e., wet vs. dry) and elevation (i.e., 500-2000 m, 2000 m and greater) conditions over the summer season from 1 June to 31 August. Notably, the visible-wavelength declining reflectance trends identified in several bands of MODIS C5 data from previous studies are only slightly detected at reduced magnitude in the C6 versions over the dry snow area. Declining albedo in the wet snow and ice area remains over the MODIS record in the C6 product, albeit at a lower magnitude than obtained using C5 data. Further analyses of C6 spectral reflectance trends show both reflectance increases and decreases in select bands and regions, suggesting that several competing processes are contributing to Greenland Ice Sheet albedo change. Investigators using MODIS data for other ocean, atmosphere and/or land analyses are urged to consider similar re-examinations of trends previously established using C5 data.

radiative forcing↗
NASA NTRS2004

Validation of GLAS Range Measurement over Salar de Uyuni, Bolivia

NASA's Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) on the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) is Earth's first polar-orbiting satellite laser altimeter. Its primary purpose is to measure ice sheet elevation change, with a scientific requirement of detecting changes as low as 1.5 centimeters per year. This goal requires precise calibration and validation of the instrument. One approach for validating the GLAS range measurement involves comparison with a land reference target. Dry salt lakes are ideal for this purpose since they are large, stable, easily surveyed using kinematic GPS, and have albedos similar to that of ice. We selected the largest dry salt lake in the world, the salar de Uyuni in Bolivia, as a reference target for GLAS. In September 2002 we surveyed a 54 x 45 kilometer area of the salar with car-mounted kinematic GPS, using the data to construct a DEM of the surface. To date there have been six ICESat passes across our survey area, along two intersecting tracks. The first two passes occurred during "Laser 2A" operation (September to November 2003), the second two during "Laser 2B" operation (February to March 2004), and the final two during "Laser 2C" (June to July 2004). We compare GLAS elevations from all six passes with the salar de Uyuni DEM, showing how differing conditions between passes affected the performance of the GLAS instrument and providing an estimate of the relative and absolute accuracy of the range measurement. To check our results, we also compare the GLAS elevations along the same tracks with the mean sea-surface derived from TOPEX over the ocean on either side of South America.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2013

Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3+/-1deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

sea level↗
NASA NTRS1997

Global Geodetic Signatures of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Four scenarios of present day Antarctic ice sheet mass change are developed from comprehensive reviews of the available glaciological and oceanographic evidence. The gridded scenarios predict widely varying contributions to secular sea level change xi ranging from -1.1 to 0.45 mm/yr, and predict polar motion m and time-varying low-degree gravitational coefficients J(sub l) that differ significantly from earlier estimates. A reasonably linear relationship between the rate of sea level change from Antarctica xi(sub A) and the predicted Antarctic J(sub l) is found for the four scenarios. This linearity permits a series of forward models to be constructed that incorporate the effects of ice mass changes in Antarctica, Greenland, and distributed smaller glaciers, as well as postglacial rebound (assuming the ICE-3G deglaciation history), with the goal of obtaining optimum reconciliation between observed constraints on J(sub l) and sea level rise xi. Numerous viable combinations of lower mantle viscosity and hydrologic sources are found that safely "observed" in the range of 1 to 2-2.5 mm/yr and observed J(sub l) for degrees 2, 3, and 4. In contrast, rates of global sea level rise above 2.5 mm/yr are inconsistent with available J(sub l) observations. The successful composite models feature a pair of lower mantle viscosity solutions arising from the sensitivity of J(sub l) to glacial rebound. The paired values are well separated at xi = 1 mm/yr, but move closer together as xi is increased, and, in fact, merge around xi = 2 - 2.5 mm/yr, revealing an intimate relation between xi and preferred lower mantle viscosity. This general pattern is quite robust and persists for different J(sub l) solutions, for variations in source assumptions, and for different styles of lower mantle viscosity stratification. Tighter J(sub l) constraints for l greater than 2 may allow some viscosity stratification schemes and source assumptions to be excluded in the future. For a given total observed xi the sea level rise from Antarctica xi(sub A) is tightly constrained and ranges from 0 to + 1 mr/yr (corresponding to an ablating ice sheet) as estimates of xi are raised from 1 to 2.5 mm/yr. However, when the degree 3 zonal harmonic constraint is removed, the solutions show little sensitivity to Antarctic mass balance, emphasizing the need for a well determined odd-degree secular zonal harmonic for determining polar ice mass balance.

James, Thomas S.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Radar measurements of melt zones on the Greenland Ice Sheet

Surface-based microwave radar measurements were performed at a location on the western flank of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Here, firn metamorphasis is dominated by seasonal melt, which leads to marked contrasts in the vertical structure of winter and summer firn. This snow regime is also one of the brightest radar targets on Earth with an average backscatter coefficient of 0 dB at 5.3 GHz and an incidence angle of 25 deg. By combining detailed observations of firn physical properties with ranging radar measurements we find that the glaciological mechanism associated with this strong electromagnetic response is summer ice lens formation within the previous winter's snow pack. This observation has important implications for monitoring and understanding changes in ice sheet volume using spaceborne microwave sensors.

Jezek, Kenneth C.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Temperature, Melt, and Mass Loss: 2000-2006

Extensive melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented by a variety of ground and satellite measurements in recent years. If the well-documented warming continues in the Arctic, melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet will likely accelerate, contributing to sea-level rise. Modeling studies indicate that an annual or summer temperature rise of 1 C on the ice sheet will increase melt by 20-50% therefore, surface temperature is one of the most important ice-sheet parameters to study for analysis of changes in the mass balance of the ice-sheet. The Greenland Ice Sheet contains enough water to produce a rise in eustatic sea level of up to 7.0 m if the ice were to melt completely. However, even small changes (centimeters) in sea level would cause important economic and societal consequences in the world's major coastal cities thus it is extremely important to monitor changes in the ice-sheet surface temperature and to ultimately quantify these changes in terms of amount of sea-level rise. We have compiled a high-resolution, daily time series of surface temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet, using the I-km resolution, clear-sky land-surface temperature (LST) standard product from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), from 2000 - 2006. We also use Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data, averaged over 10-day periods, to measure change in mass of the ice sheet as it melt and snow accumulates. Surface temperature can be used to determine frequency of surface melt, timing of the start and the end of the melt season, and duration of melt. In conjunction with GRACE data, it can also be used to analyze timing of ice-sheet mass loss and gain.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Growth of Greenland ice sheet - Measurement

Measurements of ice-sheet elevation change by satellite altimetry show that the Greenland surface elevation south of 72 deg north latitude is increasing. The vertical velocity of the surface is 0.20 + or - 0.06 meters/year from measured changes in surface elevations at 5906 intersections between Geosat paths in 1985 and Seasat in 1978, and 0.28 + or - 0.02 meters/year from 256,694 intersections of Geosat paths during a 548-day period of 1985 to 1986.

Zwally, H. Jay↗
NASA NTRS2016

ATLAS Beam Steering Mechanism Lessons Learned

This paper describes the design, testing, and lessons learned during the development of the Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS) Beam Steering Mechanism (BSM). The BSM is a 2 degree-of-freedom tip-tilt mechanism for the purpose of pointing a flat mirror to tightly control the co-alignment of the transmitted laser and the receiver telescope of the ATLAS instrument. The high resolution needs of the mission resulted in sub-arcsecond pointing and knowledge requirements, which have been met. Development of the methodology to verify performance required significant effort. The BSM will fly as part of the Ice, Cloud, and Elevation Satellite II Mission (ICESat II), which is scheduled to be launched in 2017. The ICESat II primary mission is to map the earth's surface topography for the determination of seasonal changes of ice sheet thickness and vegetation canopy thickness to establish long-term trends.

controls↗
NASA NTRS2016

Beam Steering Mechanism (BSM) Lessons Learned

This paper describes the design, testing, and lessons learned during the development of the Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS) Beam Steering Mechanism (BSM). The BSM is a 2 degree-of-freedom tip-tilt mechanism for the purpose of pointing a flat mirror to tightly control the co-alignment of the transmitted laser and the receiver telescope of the ATLAS instrument. High resolution needs of the mission resulted in sub-arcsecond pointing and knowledge requirements, which have been met. Development of methodology to verify performance was a significant effortadvancement. The BSM will fly as part of the Ice, Cloud, and Elevation Satellite 2 Mission (ICESat 2), which is scheduled to be launched in 2017. The ICESat 2 primary mission is to map the earths surface topography for the determination of seasonal changes of ice sheet thickness as well as vegetation canopy thickness.

Mechanism↗
NASA NTRS2016

ATLAS Beam Steering Mechanism (BSM) Lessons Learned

This paper describes the design, testing, and lessons learned during the development of the Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS) Beam Steering Mechanism (BSM). The BSM is a 2 degree-of-freedom tip-tilt mechanism for the purpose of pointing a flat mirror to tightly control the co-alignment of the transmitted laser and the receiver telescope of the ATLAS instrument. The high resolution needs of the mission resulted in sub-arcsecond pointing and knowledge requirements, which have been met. Development of the methodology to verify performance required significant effort. The BSM will fly as part of the Ice, Cloud, and Elevation Satellite II Mission (ICESat II), which is scheduled to be launched in 2017. The ICESat II primary mission is to map the Earth's surface topography for the determination of seasonal changes of ice sheet thickness and vegetation canopy thickness to establish long-term trends.

Blumenstock, Kenneth A.↗
NASA NTRS2018

ICESat-2 Photon Classification: Finding Signal Photons in the ATL03 Geolocated Photon Data Product

ICESat-2 carries NASA's next-generation laser altimeter, ATLAS, (Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System), designed to measure changes in ice sheet height, sea ice freeboard, and vegetation canopy height. ATLAS contains a photon-counting lidar which transmits green (532-nm) pulses at 10kHz. Each pulse is split into 3 pairs of beams (one strong and one weak). Approximately 1014 photons per pulse travel from ATLAS through the atmosphere to reflect off the Earth's surface. Some return back into the ATLAS telescope where they are recorded. Photons from sunlight and instrument noise at the same wavelength are also recorded. The flight software time tags all photons within a 500m to 6 km range window and generates histograms. Using the histograms, it selects a telemetry window which varies from 20m over flat surfaces to hundreds of meters over rougher terrain. ATL03 contains the time, height (relative to the WGS-84 ellipsoid), latitude and longitude of every photon within the telemetry window. The basic challenge is to determine which of these photons were reflected off the surface. We have developed an algorithm that identifies these signal photons and assigns a confidence level (low, medium, or high) to each signal photon based on the signal to noise ratio. We present an overview of the signal identification algorithm and show the results on actual ICESat-2 data over ice sheet, sea ice, vegetated, and water surfaces. Higher level ATLAS products work with aggregations of the photons in order to determine the ellipsoidal height of the Earth, canopy height and structure, and other quantities of geophysical interest.

Remote Sensing↗
NASA NTRS2017

Optimization of Debris Shields on the NISAR Mission’s L-Band Radar Instrument

The NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR) space mission is a collaboration between NASA and the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), launching in the 2020s to a polar orbit of 747km altitude. The mission will provide spatial and temporal measurements of land surface changes (e.g. ice sheets, vegetation, earthquakes). Many of the SAR electronics boxes are mounted on the exterior of the structure. Their singlewall box lids efficiently radiate heat for thermal control, but are not very efficient debris shields. The initial design showed an unacceptably high impact risk as estimated with NASA’s ORDEM3 debris model and Bumper impact analysis tool. Each box has a different role in instrument functionality, and this was captured in a reliability model used to optimize the distribution of shield mass among the boxes: total added mass was minimized while maintaining a threshold of functionality and survival probability that was acceptable to the project.

Chinn, James Z.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Atmospheric Blocking Drives Recent Albedo Change Across the Western Greenland Ice Sheet Percolation Zone

Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) albedo has decreased over recent decades, contributing to enhanced surface melt and mass loss. However, it remains unclear whether GrIS darkening is due to snow grain size increases, higher concentrations of light-absorbing impurities (LAIs), or a combination. Here, we assess albedo controls in the western GrIS percolation zone using in situ albedo, LAI, and grain size measurements. We find a significant correlation between albedo and snow grain size (p < 0.01), but not with LAIs. Modeling corroborates that LAI concentrations are too low to significantly reduce albedo, but larger grain sizes could reduce albedo by at least ∼3%. Strong atmospheric blocking increases grain sizes and reduces albedo through increased surface temperature, fewer storms, and higher incoming shortwave radiation. These findings clarify the mechanisms by which anomalously strong blocking contributed to recent GrIS albedo decline and mass loss, highlighting the importance of improving projections of future blocking.

Gabriel Lewis↗
NASA NTRS2021

Atmospheric River Precipitation Contributed to Rapid Increases in Surface Height of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in 2019

Estimating the relative contributions of the atmospheric and dynamic components of ice-sheet mass balance is critical for improving projections of future sea level rise. Existing estimates of changes in Antarctic ice-sheet height, which can be used to infer changes in mass, are only accurate at multiyear time scales. However, NASA's Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) laser altimetry mission now allows us to accurately measure changes in ice-sheet height at subannual time scales. Here, we use ICESat-2 data to estimate height changes over Antarctica between April 2019 and June 2020. These data show widespread increases in surface height over West Antarctica during the 2019 austral winter. Using climate reanalysis data, we show that 41% of increases in height during winter were from snow accumulation via extreme precipitation events—63% of these events were associated with landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) which occurred only 5.1% of the time.

Susheel Adusumilli↗
NASA NTRS2017

How Much, How Fast?: A Science Review and Outlook for Research on the Instability of Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier in the 21st Century

Constraining how much and how fast the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) will change in the coming decades has recently been identified as the highest priority in Antarctic research (National Academies, 2015). Here we review recent research on WAIS and outline further scientific objectives for the area now identified as the most likely to undergo near-term significant change: Thwaites Glacier and the adjacent Amundsen Sea. Multiple lines of evidence point to an ongoing rapid loss of ice in this region in response to changing atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Models of the ice sheets dynamic behavior indicate a potential for greatly accelerated ice loss as ocean-driven melting at the Thwaites Glacier grounding zone and nearby areas leads to thinning, faster flow, and retreat. A complete retreat of the Thwaites Glacier basin would raise global sea level by more than three meters by entraining ice from adjacent catchments. This scenario could occur over the next few centuries, and faster ice loss could occur through processes omitted from most ice flow models such as hydrofracture and ice cliff failure, which have been observed in recent rapid ice retreats elsewhere. Increased basal melt at the grounding zone and increased potential for hydrofracture due to enhanced surface melt could initiate a more rapid collapse of Thwaites Glacier within the next few decades.

Thwaites Glacier↗