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NASA NTRS2020

ISMIP6 Antarctica: A Multi-Model Ensemble of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Evolution Over the 21st Century

Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between -7:8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica ass change varies between -6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

Hélène Seroussi↗
NASA NTRS1999

Glacier and Ice Shelves Studies Using Satellite SAR Interferometry

Satellite radar interferometry is a powerful technique to measure the surface velocity and topography of glacier ice. On ice shelves, a quadruple difference technique separates tidal motion from the steady creep flow deformation of ice. The results provide a wealth of information about glacier grounding lines , mass fluxes, stability, elastic properties of ice, and tidal regime. The grounding line, which is where the glacier detaches from its bed and becomes afloat, is detected with a precision of a few tens of meters. Combining this information with satellite radar altimetry makes it possible to measure glacier discharge into the ocean and state of mass balance with greater precision than ever before, and in turn provide a significant revision of past estimates of mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Analysis of creep rates on floating ice permits an estimation of basal melting at the ice shelf underside. The results reveal that the action of ocean water in sub-ice-shelf cavities has been largely underestimated by oceanographic models and is the dominant mode of mass release to the ocean from an ice shelf. Precise mapping of grounding line positions also permits the detection of grounding line migration, which is a fine indicator of glacier change, independent of our knowledge of snow accumulation and ice melting. This technique has been successfully used to detect the rapid retreat of Pine Island Glacier, the largest ice stream in West Antarctica. Finally, tidal motion of ice shelves measured interferometrically provides a modern, synoptic view of the physical processes which govern the formation of tabular icebergs in the Antarctic.

Rignot, Eric↗
NASA NTRS2020

Interannual variations in meltwater input to the Southern Ocean from Antarctic ice shelves

Ocean-driven basal melting of Antarctica’s floating ice shelves accounts for about half of their mass loss in steady state, where gains in ice-shelf mass are balanced by losses. Ice-shelf thickness changes driven by varying basal melt rates modulate mass loss from the grounded ice sheet and its contribution to sea level, and the changing meltwater fluxes influence climate processes in the Southern Ocean. Existing continent-wide melt-rate datasets have no temporal variability, introducing uncertainties in sea level and climate projections. Here, we combine surface height data from satellite radar altimeters with satellite-derived ice velocities and a new model of firn-layer evolution to generate a high-resolution map of time-averaged (2010–2018) basal melt rates and time series (1994–2018) of meltwater fluxes for most ice shelves. Total basal meltwater flux in 1994 (1,090 ± 150 Gt/yr) was similar to the steady-state value (1,100 ± 60 Gt/yr), but increased to 1,570 ± 140 Gt/yr in 2009, followed by a decline to 1,160 ± 150 Gt/yr in 2018. For the four largest ‘cold-water’ ice shelves, we partition meltwater fluxes into deep and shallow sources to reveal distinct signatures of temporal variability, providing insights into climate forcing of basal melting and the impact of this melting on the Southern Ocean.

Susheel Adusumilli↗
NASA NTRS2023

Insights on the Vulnerability of Antarctic Glaciers From the ISMIP6 Ice Sheet Model Ensemble and Associated Uncertainty

The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate model increases over time and reaches 13 % of the uncertainty by 2100 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet but varies between 4 % for Thwaites Glacier and 53 % for Whillans Ice Stream. The uncertainty associated with the ice–climate interaction, which captures different treatments of oceanic forcings such as the choice of melt parameterization, its calibration, and simulated ice shelf geometries, accounts for 22 % of the uncertainty at the ice sheet scale but reaches 36 % and 39 % for Institute Ice Stream and Thwaites Glacier, respectively, by 2100. Overall, this study helps inform future research by highlighting the sectors of the ice sheet most vulnerable to oceanic warming over the 21st century and by quantifying the main sources of uncertainty.

Hélène Seroussi↗
NASA NTRS2003

Antarctic Ice-Sheet Mass Balance from Satellite Altimetry 1992 to 2001

A major uncertainty in understanding the causes of the current rate of sea level rise is the potential contributions from mass imbalances of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Estimates of the current mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet are derived from surface- elevation changes obtained from 9 years of ERS - 1 & 2 radar altimeter data. Elevation time-series are created from altimeter crossovers among 90-day data periods on a 50 km grid to 81.5 S. The time series are fit with a multivariate linear/sinusoidal function to give the average rate of elevation change (dH/dt). On the major Rome-Filchner, Ross, and Amery ice shelves, the W d t are small or near zero. In contrast, the ice shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula and along the West Antarctic coast appear to be thinning significantly, with a 23 +/- 3 cm per year surface elevation decrease on the Larsen ice shelf and a 65 +/- 4 cm per year decrease on the Dotson ice shelf. On the grounded ice, significant elevation decreases are obtained over most of the drainage basins of the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers in West Antarctica and inland of Law Dome in East Antarctica. Significant elevation increases are observed within about 200 km of the coast around much of the rest of the ice sheet. Farther inland, the changes are a mixed pattern of increases and decreases with increases of a few centimeters per year at the highest elevations of the East Antarctic plateau. The derived elevation changes are combined with estimates of the bedrock uplift from several models to provide maps of ice thickness change. The ice thickness changes enable estimates of the ice mass balances for the major drainage basins, the overall mass balance, and the current contribution of the ice sheet to global sea level change.

Zwally, H. Jay↗
NASA NTRS2002

Geostatistical Methods For Determination of Roughness, Topography, And Changes of Antarctic Ice Streams From SAR And Radar Altimeter Data

The central objective of this project has been the development of geostatistical methods fro mapping elevation and ice surface characteristics from satellite radar altimeter (RA) and Syntheitc Aperture Radar (SAR) data. The main results are an Atlas of elevation maps of Antarctica, from GEOSAT RA data and an Atlas from ERS-1 RA data, including a total of about 200 maps with 3 km grid resolution. Maps and digital terrain models are applied to monitor and study changes in Antarctic ice streams and glaciers, including Lambert Glacier/Amery Ice Shelf, Mertz and Ninnis Glaciers, Jutulstraumen Glacier, Fimbul Ice Shelf, Slessor Glacier, Williamson Glacier and others.

Herzfeld, Ute C.↗
NASA NTRS2024

A Physics-Based Antarctic Melt Detection Technique: Combining Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2, Radiative-Transfer Modeling, and Firn Modeling

Surface melt on ice shelves has been linked to hydrofracture and subsequent ice shelf breakup. Since the 1990s, scientists have been using microwave radiometers to detect melt on ice shelves and ice sheets by applying various statistical thresholding techniques to identify significant increases in brightness temperature that are associated with melt. In this study, instead of using a fixed threshold, we force the Snow Radiative Transfer model (SMRT) with outputs from the Community Firn Model (CFM) to create a dynamic, physics-based threshold for melt. In the process, we also combine our method with statistical thresholding techniques and produce microwave grain size information in the process. We run this “Hybrid Method” across the Larsen C ice shelf as well as thirteen sites on the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Melt and non-melt days from the Hybrid Method and three statistical thresholding techniques match with surface energy balance within 94±1%; the effect of melt on the passive microwave is mostly binary and thus largely detectable by statistical thresholding techniques as well as physics-based techniques. Rather than always replacing statistical thresholding techniques with the Hybrid Method, we recommend using the Hybrid Method in studies where melt volume or grain size is of interest. In this study, we show that the Hybrid Method can be used to (a) model dry snow brightness temperatures of Antarctic snow and (b) derive a measure of grain size; therefore, it is an important step forwards towards using firn and radiative transfer modeling to quantify melt rather than to simply detect melt days.

Marissa E Dattler↗
NASA NTRS2001

Surface Elevation Changes in West Antarctica from Satellite Altimetry: Mass Balance Implications

Time-series of surface elevation change, which are constructed from 7-years (1992-1999) of ERS-1 and 2 satellite radar altimeter data of Antarctica, show significant seasonal, inter-annual, and long-term changes. Elevation time-series are created from altimeter crossovers among 90-day data periods on a 50 km grid to 81.5 degrees S and fit with a multivariate linear/sinusoidal function to give the average rate of elevation change (dH/dt) and account for seasonal changes. On the major Ronne, Filchner, and Ronne ice shelves, the dH/dt are small or near zero. In contrast, the ice shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula and along the West Antarctic coast appear to be thinning significantly, with a 23 +/- 3 cm a(exp -1) surface elevation decrease on the Larsen ice shelf and a 65 +/- 4 cm a(exp -1) decrease on the Dotson ice shelf. Significant elevation decreases are obtained over most of the drainage basins of the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers. Significant increases are obtained over most of the other grounded ice in Marie Byrd Land, the Antarctic Peninsula, and Coates Land. Over the sector from 85 degrees W to 115 degrees W, which includes the Pine Island and Thwaites basins, the average elevation is significantly decreasing by 8.1 cm a(exp -1). The corresponding ice thickness change is about -11 cm a(exp -1), with a corresponding mass loss of 82 Gt a(exp -1), and a 0.22 mm a(exp -1) contribution to global sea level rise. In terms of elevation change, the decrease in the Pine Island-Thwaites sector is largely balanced by the increase in the Marie Byrd Land, but only balanced by about 1/4 in terms of ice thickness change and contribution to sea level rise. The overall average elevation change for the grounded ice is + 1.2 cm a(exp -1). Using an average bedrock uplift of 2.5 cm a(exp -1), implies an average ice thickness decrease of 1.3 cm a(exp -1), a mass loss of 22 Gt a(exp -1), and a 0.06 mm a(exp -1) contribution to global sea level rise.

Zwally, H. Jay↗
NASA NTRS2003

Characterizing the Siple Coast Ice Stream System using Satellite Images, Improved Topography, and Integrated Aerogeophysical Measurements

A technique for improving elevation maps of the polar ice sheets has been developed using AVHRR images. The technique is based on 'photoclinometry' or 'shape from shading', a technique used in the past for mapping planetary surfaces where little elevation information was available. The fundamental idea behind photoclinometry is using the brightness of imaged areas to infer their surface slope in the sun-illuminated direction. Our version of the method relies on a calibration of the images based on an existing lower-resolution digital elevation model (DEM), and then using the images to improve the input DEM resolution to the scale of the image data. Most current DEMs covering the ice sheets are based on Radar altimetry data, and have an inherent resolution of 10 to 25 km at best - although the grid scale of the DEM is often finer. These DEMs are highly accurate (to less than 1 meter); but they report the mean elevation of a broad area, thus erasing smaller features of glaciological interest. AVHRR image data, when accurately geolocated and calibrated, provides surface slope measurements (based on the pixel brightness under known lighting conditions) every approximately 1.1 km. The limitations of the technique are noisiness in the image data, small variations in the albedo of the snow surface, and the integration technique used to create an elevation field from the image-derived slopes. Our study applied the technique to several ice sheet areas having some elevation data; Greenland, the Amery Ice Shelf, the Institute Ice Stream, and the Siple Coast. For the latter, the input data set was laser-altimetry data collected under NSF's SOAR Facility (Support Office for Aerogeophysical Research) over the onset area of the Siple Coast. Over the course of the grant, the technique was greatly improved and modified, significantly improving accuracy and reducing noise from the images. Several publications resulted from the work, and a follow-on proposal to NASA has been submitted to apply the same method to MODIS data using ICESat and other elevation input information. This follow-on grant will explore two applications that are facilitated by the improved surface morphology characterizations of the ice sheets: accumulation and temperature variations near small undulations in the ice.

Scambos, Ted↗
NASA NTRS2012

Variability and Anomalous Trends in the Global Sea Ice Cover

The advent of satellite data came fortuitously at a time when the global sea ice cover has been changing rapidly and new techniques are needed to accurately assess the true state and characteristics of the global sea ice cover. The extent of the sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere has been declining by about -4% per decade for the period 1979 to 2011 but for the period from 1996 to 2010, the rate of decline became even more negative at -8% per decade, indicating an acceleration in the decline. More intriguing is the drastically declining perennial sea ice area, which is the ice that survives the summer melt and observed to be retreating at the rate of -14% per decade during the 1979 to 2012 period. Although a slight recovery occurred in the last three years from an abrupt decline in 2007, the perennial ice extent was almost as low as in 2007 in 2011. The multiyear ice, which is the thick component of the perennial ice and regarded as the mainstay of the Arctic sea ice cover is declining at an even higher rate of -19% per decade. The more rapid decline of the extent of this thicker ice type means that the volume of the ice is also declining making the survival of the Arctic ice in summer highly questionable. The slight recovery in 2008, 2009 and 2010 for the perennial ice in summer was likely associated with an apparent cycle in the time series with a period of about 8 years. Results of analysis of concurrent MODIS and AMSR-E data in summer also provide some evidence of more extensive summer melt and meltponding in 2007 and 2011 than in other years. Meanwhile, the Antarctic sea ice cover, as observed by the same set of satellite data, is showing an unexpected and counter intuitive increase of about 1 % per decade over the same period. Although a strong decline in ice extent is apparent in the Bellingshausen/ Amundsen Seas region, such decline is more than compensated by increases in the extent of the sea ice cover in the Ross Sea region. The results of analysis of MODIS, AMSR-E and SSM/I data reveal that the sea ice production rate at the coastal polynyas along the Ross Ice Shelf has been increasing since 1992. This also means that the salinization rate and the formation of bottom water in the region are going up as well. Simulation studies indicate that the stronger production rate is likely associated with the ozone hole that has caused a deepening of the lows in the West Antarctic region and therefore stronger winds off the Ross Ice Shelf. Stronger winds causes larger coastal polynyas near the shelf and hence an enhanced ice production in the region during the autumn and winter period. Results of analysis of temperature data from MODIS and AMSR-E shows that the area and concentration of the sea ice cover are highly correlated with surface temperature for both the Arctic and Antarctic, especially in the seasonal regions where the correlation coefficients are about 0.9. Abnormally high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and surface ice temperatures (SITs) were also observed in 2007 and 2011when drastic reductions in the summer ice cover occurred, This phenomenon is consistent with the expected warming of the upper layer of the Arctic Ocean on account of ice-albedo feedback. Changes in atmospheric circulation are also expected to have a strong influence on the sea ice cover but the results of direct correlation analyses of the sea ice cover with the Northern and the Southern Annular Mode indices show relatively weak correlations, This might be due in part to the complexity of the dynamics of the system that can be further altered by some phenomena like the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave and extra polar processes like the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (POD),

Comiso, Josefino C.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Terdiurnal Radiational Tides

Terdiurnal atmospheric tides induce an S 3 radiational ocean tide, similar to radiational tides S 1 and S 2 in the diurnal and semidiurnal bands. Although of small amplitude, the terdiurnal tide has some intriguing properties. The tide has an unusually pronounced seasonal variation, manifested by annual sidelines here denoted R 3 and T 3 , which causes the tide to nearly vanish during times near an equinox. Forcing is generally largest in the winter hemisphere. Complicating matters, the two sideline frequencies coincide with those of nonlinear compound tides SK 3 and SP 3 . Whether radiational tides or nonlinear tides (or both) are appearing at any given tide gauge can usually be determined by the relative amplitudes and phase differences of the two sidelines. The amplitudes of R 3 and T 3 are generally comparable; the amplitudes of SK 3 and SP 3 are not. Proper identification can lead to a small improvement in tidal prediction, but more importantly can lead to improved physical interpretation. An example from recent measurements under the Ross Ice Shelf bears on the role of nonlinearity in interactions between the ocean tide and the floating ice shelf.

Atmospheric waves↗
NASA NTRS2011

Mass Balance of the West Antarctic Ice-Sheet from ICESat Measurements

Mass balance estimates for 2003-2008 are derived from ICESat laser altimetry and compared with estimates for 1992-2002 derived from ERS radar altimetry. The net mass balance of 3 drainage systems (Pine Island, Thwaites/Smith, and the coast of Marie Bryd) for 2003-2008 is a loss of 100 Gt/yr, which increased from a loss of 70 Gt/yr for the earlier period. The DS including the Bindschadler and MacAyeal ice streams draining into the Ross Ice Shelf has a mass gain of 11 Gt/yr for 2003-2008, compared to an earlier loss of 70 Gt/yr. The DS including the Whillans and Kamb ice streams has a mass gain of 12 Gt/yr, including a significant thickening on the upper part of the Kamb DS, compared to a earlier gain of 6 Gt/yr (includes interpolation for a large portion of the DS). The other two DS discharging into the Ronne Ice Shelf and the northern Ellsworth Coast have a mass gain of 39 Gt/yr, compared to a gain of 4 Gt/yr for the earlier period. Overall, the increased losses of 30 Gt/yr in the Pine Island, Thwaites/Smith, and the coast of Marie Bryd DSs are exceeded by increased gains of 59 Gt/yr in the other 4 DS. Overall, the mass loss from the West Antarctic ice sheet has decreased to 38 Gt/yr from the earlier loss of 67 Gt/yr, reducing the contribution to sea level rise to 0.11 mm/yr from 0.19 mm/yr

Zwally, H. Jay↗
NASA NTRS2014

Antarctic Analog for Dilational Bands on Europa

Europa's surface shows signs of extension, which is revealed as lithospheric dilation expressed along ridges, dilational bands and ridged bands. Ridges, the most common tectonic feature on Europa, comprise a central crack flanked by two raised banks a few hundred meters high on each side. Together these three classes may represent a continuum of formation. In Tufts' Dilational Model ridge formation is dominated by daily tidal cycling of a crack, which can be superimposed with regional secular dilation. The two sources of dilation can combine to form the various band morphologies observed. New GPS data along a rift on the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica is a suitable Earth analog to test the framework of Tufts' Dilational Model. As predicted by Tufts' Dilational Model, tensile failures in the Ross Ice Shelf exhibit secular dilation, upon which a tidal signal can be seen. From this analog we conclude that Tufts' Dilational Model for Europan ridges and bands may be credible and that the secular dilation is most likely from a regional source and not tidally driven.

Tectonics↗
NASA NTRS2011

Accelerating Ice Loss from the Fastest Greenland and Antarctic Glaciers

Ice discharge from the fastest glaciers draining the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets . Jakobshavn Isbrae (JI) and Pine Island Glacier (PIG). continues to increase, and is now more than double that needed to balance snowfall in their catchment basins. Velocity increase probably resulted from decreased buttressing from thinning (and, for JI, breakup) of their floating ice tongues, and from reduced basal drag as grounding lines on both glaciers retreat. JI flows directly into the ocean as it becomes afloat, and here creep rates are proportional to the cube of bed depth. Rapid thinning of the PIG ice shelf increases the likelihood of its breakup, and subsequent rapid increase in discharge velocity. Results from a simple model indicate that JI velocities should almost double to >20 km/a by 2015, with velocities on PIG increasing to >10 km/a after breakup of its ice shelf. These high velocities would probably be sustained over many decades as the glaciers retreat within their long, very deep troughs. Resulting sea ]level rise would average about 1.5 mm/a.

Thomas, R.↗
NASA NTRS1974

The cartographic application of ERTS/RBV imagery in polar regions

The author has identified the following significant results. A 1.1,000,000 scale sketch map has been prepared from ERTS imagery of the Prince Olav Coast, Antarctica. This is the first such mapping of the extent of the ice tongues of the Shtrase and Fietta Bay glaciers. Shtrase is of particular interest because the ERTS imagery shows the tongue extending out into the Lutzom-Holm Bay approximately 32 miles further than ever depicted on existing maps. This sketch map and others in work covering coastal areas of the Antarctic continent show many coastal changes when compared to what is believed to be the most current published maps. These sketch maps along with the accompanying mosaics will be a bench mark for future revision to existing maps and charts and also an invaluable source for mew mapping. ERTS imagery is now available over Mt. Siple, Antarctica, and it is expected to provide a source to position Mt. Siple correctly in relation to the Executive Committee Range. A mosaic at 1:500,000 scale is also being compiled that will serve as a source for future revision of 1:250,000 scale maps of the Ellsworth Mountains, change and improve the shape and size of the islands within the Ronne Ice Shelf, and redefine the ice front of the Ronne and Filchner Shelves.

Macdonald, W. R.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Evolving Understanding of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections

Mechanisms such as ice-shelf hydrofracturing and ice-cliff collapse may rapidly increase discharge from marine-based ice sheets. Here, we link a probabilistic framework for sea-level projections to a small ensemble of Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) simulations incorporating these physical processes to explore their influence on global-mean sea-level (GMSL) and relative sea-level (RSL). We compare the new projections to past results using expert assessment and structured expert elicitation about AIS changes. Under high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5), median projected 21st century GMSL rise increases from 79 to 146 cm. Without protective measures, revised median RSL projections would by 2100 submerge land currently home to 153 million people, an increase of 44 million. The use of a physical model, rather than simple parameterizations assuming constant acceleration of ice loss, increases forcing sensitivity: overlap between the central 90% of simulations for 2100 for RCP 8.5 (93-243 cm) and RCP 2.6 (26-98 cm) is minimal. By 2300, the gap between median GMSL estimates for RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 reaches >10 m, with median RSL projections for RCP 8.5 jeopardizing land now occupied by 950 million people (versus 167 million for RCP 2.6). The minimal correlation between the contribution of AIS to GMSL by 2050 and that in 2100 and beyond implies current sea-level observations cannot exclude future extreme outcomes. The sensitivity of post-2050 projections to deeply uncertain physics highlights the need for robust decision and adaptive management frameworks.

Kopp, Robert E.↗
NASA NTRS2021

The Scientific Legacy of NASA’s Operation IceBridge

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)’s Operation IceBridge (OIB) was a 13-year (2009–2021) airborne mission to survey land and sea ice across the Arctic, Antarctic, and Alaska. Here, we review OIB’s goals, instruments, campaigns, key scientific results, and implications for future investigations of the cryosphere. OIB’s primary goal was to use airborne laser altimetry to bridge the gap in fine-resolution elevation measurements of ice from space between the conclusion of NASA’s Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat; 2003–2009) and its follow-on, ICESat-2 (launched 2018). Additional scientific requirements were intended to contextualize observed elevation changes using a multisensor suite of radar sounders, gravimeters, magnetometers, and cameras. Using 15 different aircraft, OIB conducted 968 science flights, of which 42% were repeat surveys of land ice, 42% were surveys of previously unmapped terrain across the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, Arctic ice caps, and Alaskan glaciers, and 16% were surveys of sea ice. The combination of an expansive instrument suite and breadth of surveys enabled numerous fundamental advances in our understanding of the Earth’s cryosphere. For land ice, OIB dramatically improved knowledge of interannual outlet-glacier variability, ice-sheet, and outlet-glacier thicknesses, snowfall rates on ice sheets, fjord and sub-ice-shelf bathymetry, and ice-sheet hydrology. Unanticipated discoveries included a reliable method for constraining the thickness within difficult-to-sound incised troughs beneath ice sheets, the extent of the firn aquifer within the Greenland Ice Sheet, the vulnerability of many Greenland and Antarctic outlet glaciers to ocean-driven melting at their grounding zones, and the dominance of surface-melt-driven mass loss of Alaskan glaciers. For sea ice, OIB significantly advanced our understanding of spatiotemporal variability in sea ice freeboard and its snow cover, especially through combined analysis of fine-resolution altimetry, visible imagery, and snow radar measurements of the overlying snow thickness. Such analyses led to the unanticipated discovery of an interdecadal decrease in snow thickness on Arctic sea ice and numerous opportunities to validate sea ice freeboards from satellite radar altimetry. While many of its data sets have yet to be fully explored, OIB’s scientific legacy has already demonstrated the value of sustained investment in reliable airborne platforms, airborne instrument development, interagency and international collaboration, and open and rapid data access to advance our understanding of Earth’s remote polar regions and their role in the Earth system.

Joseph A. MacGregor↗
NASA NTRS2022

Rapid Glacier Retreat Rates Observed in West Antarctica

The Pope, Smith, and Kohler glaciers, in the Amundsen Sea Embayment of West Antarctica, have experienced enhanced ocean-induced ice-shelf melt, glacier acceleration, ice thinning, and grounding line retreat in the past thirty years. Here we present observations of the grounding line retreat of these glaciers since 2014 using a constellation of interferometric radar satellites combined with precision surface elevation data. We find that the grounding lines develop spatially-variable, kilometre-scale, tidally-induced migration zones. After correction for tidal effects, we detect a sustained pattern of retreat coincident with high melt rates of un-grounded ice, marked by episodes of more rapid retreat. In 2017, Pope Glacier retreated 3.5 km in 3.6 months, or 11.7 km/yr. In 2016-2018, Smith West retreated at 2 km/yr and Kohler at 1.3 km/yr. While the retreat slowed down in 2018-2020, these retreat rates are faster than anticipated by numerical models on yearly time scales. We hypothesize that the rapid retreat is caused by un-represented, vigorous ice-ocean interactions acting within newly-formed cavities at the ice-ocean boundary.

Climate change↗