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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian inference analysis of jet quenching using inclusive jet and hadron suppression measurements

The JETSCAPE Collaboration reports a new determination of the jet transport parameter $\hat{q}$ in the quark-gluon plasma (QGP) using Bayesian inference, incorporating all available inclusive hadron and jet yield suppression data measured in heavy-ion collisions at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) and the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC). This multi-observable analysis extends the previously published JETSCAPE Bayesian inference determination of $\hat{q}$, which was based solely on a selection of inclusive hadron suppression data. jetscape is a modular framework incorporating detailed dynamical models of QGP formation and evolution, and jet propagation and interaction in the QGP. Virtuality-dependent partonic energy loss in the QGP is modeled as a thermalized weakly coupled plasma, with parameters determined from Bayesian calibration using soft-sector observables. This Bayesian calibration of $\hat{q}$ utilizes active learning, a machine-learning approach, for efficient exploitation of computing resources. The experimental data included in this analysis span a broad range in collision energy and centrality, and in transverse momentum. In order to explore the systematic dependence of the extracted parameter posterior distributions, several different calibrations are reported, based on combined jet and hadron data; on jet or hadron data separately; and on restricted kinematic or centrality ranges of the jet and hadron data. Tension is observed in comparison of these variations, providing new insights into the physics of jet transport in the QGP and its theoretical formulation.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian inference of fine features of the nuclear equation of state from future neutron star radius measurements to 0.1 km accuracy

To more precisely constrain the equation of state (EOS) of supradense neutron-rich nuclear matter, future high-precision x-ray and gravitational wave observatories are proposed to measure the radii of neutron stars (NSs) with an accuracy better than about 0.1 km. However, it remains unclear what particular aspects (other than the stiffness generally spoken of in the literature) of the EOS and to what precision they will be better constrained. In this work, within a Bayesian framework using a metamodel EOS for NSs, we infer the posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of incompressibility K 0 and skewness J 0 of symmetric nuclear matter (SNM) as well as the slope L, curvature K sym , and skewness J sym characterizing the density dependence of nuclear symmetry energy E sym ⁡(ρ), respectively, from mean values of NS radii consistent with existing observations and an expected accuracy Δ⁢R ranging from about 1.0 to 0.1 km. Here, we found that (1) the Δ⁢R has little effect on inferring the stiffness of SNM at suprasaturation densities, (2) smaller Δ⁢R reveals more accurately not only the PDFs but also pairwise correlations among parameters characterizing high-density E sym ⁡(ρ), (3) a double-peak feature of the PDF(K sym ) corresponding to the strong K sym – J sym and K sym – L anticorrelations is revealed when Δ⁢R is less than about 0.2 km, and the locations of the two peaks are sensitive to the maximum value of J sym reflecting the stiffness of E sym ⁡(ρ) above about 3 times the saturation density ρ 0 of SNM, and (4) the high-precision radius measurement for canonical NSs is more useful than that for massive ones for constraining the EOS of nucleonic matter around (2–3)⁢ρ 0 .

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

AIF for Vis (Active Inference for simulating human interpretation of data visualization) [SWR-26-084]

AIF for Vis contains the Active Inference models and analysis scripts used to study a simple visualization-interpretation task: estimating the average value of two bars in a bar chart. The work is a proof of concept for translating hypothesized cognitive strategies into executable, inspectable process models. We implement two idealized strategies inspired by dual-process accounts of visualization-aided decision making: *Fast model: a compressed, heuristic strategy that estimates the visual midpoint of the two bars and maintains a single belief over their average. *Slow model: a sequential, analytic strategy that estimates the two bar heights separately and maintains them in working memory before computing an average. Both models use a common Active-Inference-inspired framework for sequential perception, belief updating, action selection, and reporting. Their different internal representations produce distinct predicted vulnerabilities: *the Fast model is more susceptible to tick-salience bias; *the Slow model is more susceptible to working-memory decay. The repository includes the model implementations, scripts used for the experiments reported in the paper, precomputed trial-level results, and plotting scripts.

Goldwyn, Harrison [National Laboratory of the Rock↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comment on "An implementation of neural simulation-based inference for parameter estimation in ATLAS''

The paper titled "An implementation of neural simulation-based inference for parameter estimation in ATLAS" by the ATLAS collaboration (arXiv:2412.01600v1 [hep-ex]) describes the implementation of neural simulation-based inference for a measurement analysis performed by ATLAS. The uncertainties in the analysis arising from the finiteness of the simulated datasets are estimated using a novel double-bootstrapping technique described in that work. In the present comment, it is claimed and demonstrated, using a toy example, that the double-bootstrapping technique does not actually capture the aforementioned uncertainties.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Theoretical and methodological challenges in hierarchical Bayesian inference for model-form uncertainty

This report describes challenges associated with the hierarchical Bayesian approach to inform model-form uncertainty (MFU) representations, which are parameterized modifications to a mathematical models’ governing equations to express uncertainty in form of the equations. To inform model-form uncertainties, hierarchical Bayesian inference is often employed. Here, the MFU parameters are distributed parametrically, and the hyperparameters of the parametric distribution are informed through Bayesian inference, with the aim of determining the MFU parameter distribution that best agrees with calibration data. In practice, however, we have found the hierarchical Bayesian approach falls short of this aim. We discuss theoretical and methodological challenges of the approach, and we present several numerical demonstrations of these challenges. To conclude, we suggest promising alternative approaches for future investigation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulation-Based Inference for Neutrino Interaction Model Parameter Tuning

High-energy physics experiments studying neutrinos rely heavily on simulations of their interactions with atomic nuclei. Limitations in the theoretical understanding of these interactions typically necessitate ad hoc tuning of simulation model parameters to data. Traditional tuning methods for neutrino experiments have largely relied on simple algorithms for numerical optimization. While adequate for the modest goals of initial efforts, the complexity of future neutrino tuning campaigns is expected to increase substantially, and new approaches will be needed to make progress. In this paper, we examine the application of simulation-based inference (SBI) to the neutrino interaction model tuning for the first time. Using a previous tuning study performed by the MicroBooNE experiment as a test case, we find that our SBI algorithm can correctly infer the tuned parameter values when confronted with a mock data set generated according to the MicroBooNE procedure. This initial proof-of-principle illustrates a promising new technique for next-generation simulation tuning campaigns for the neutrino experimental community.

Tame-Narvaez, Karla Maria [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Role of Normal Stress and Shear Stress Heterogeneity in the Inferred Depth-Independence of Stress Drop

Earthquake stress drops are inferred to be independent of their source depth,contradicting standard linear scaling predictions for frictional stick-slip modelsof earthquakes, assuming increasing fault normal stress due to rockoverburden. Here, we examine the scaling between averaged stress drops andincreasing normal stress for simulated earthquakes sequences in continuumrate-and-state fault models. Our models exhibit a power-law-like scaling that isweaker than the linearity predicted by traditional friction models. This resultoccurs as the fault dimension becomes increasingly larger than the earthquakenucleation scale with increasing normal stress. Consequently, the averagedbehavior of ruptures becomes increasingly dominated by conditions for rupturepropagation, reflecting more heterogeneous shear stress conditions. As naturalfaults can be considerably larger than the smallest earthquakes they host, suchweaker scaling between averaged rupture conditions and normal stress maypartially explain the lack of an inferred depth dependence of earthquake stressdrops.

Yang, Minghan↗
DOE OSTI2026

Real-Time Inference For MI/RR Deblending

The Fermilab Main Injector (MI) and Recycler Ring (RR) share a common beam loss monitor (BLM) system, making loss events difficult to attribute to their source machine when beam is present in both simultaneously. The Real-time Edge AI for Distributed Systems (READS) project addresses this by deblending BLM readings in real time using machine learning (ML). The current FPGA based implementation meets the sub-3 ms latency requirement but carries a resource intensive hls4ml development cycle, motivating exploration of GPU based deployment. This paper characterizes inference latency on an NVIDIA Jetson Orin Nano and introduces a packet organization scheme for assembling synchronized event frames from seven distributed BLM DAQ streams. Using a Python based DAQ simulation with injected timing jitter in place of unavailable live beam data, the pipeline achieved an average end to end latency of 0.456 ms (σ = 0.122 ms) across 167,000 test frames, comfortably meeting the timing constraint. Early outliers were attributed to TensorRT warm-up rather than steady state limitations, suggesting GPU based inference is a viable alternative to the existing FPGA implementation.

Yu, Kellen [Cornell U.]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators

High-resolution, spatially distributed process-based (PB) simulators are widely employed in the study of complex catchment processes and their responses to a changing climate. However, calibrating these PB simulators using observed data remains a significant challenge due to several persistent issues, including the following: (1) intractability stemming from the computational demands and complex responses of simulators, which renders infeasible calculation of the conditional probability of parameters and data, and (2) uncertainty stemming from the choice of simplified representations of complex natural hydrologic processes. Here, we demonstrate how simulation-based inference (SBI) can help address both of these challenges with respect to parameter estimation. SBI uses a learned mapping between the parameter space and observed data to estimate parameters for the generation of calibrated simulations. To demonstrate the potential of SBI in hydrologic modeling, we conduct a set of synthetic experiments to infer two common physical parameters – Manning's coefficient and hydraulic conductivity – using a representation of a snowmelt-dominated catchment in Colorado, USA. We introduce novel deep-learning (DL) components to the SBI approach, including an “emulator” as a surrogate for the PB simulator to rapidly explore parameter responses. We also employ a density-based neural network to represent the joint probability of parameters and data without strong assumptions about its functional form. While addressing intractability, we also show that, if the simulator does not represent the system under study well enough, SBI can yield unreliable parameter estimates. Approaches to adopting the SBI framework for cases in which multiple simulator(s) may be adequate are introduced using a performance-weighting approach. The synthetic experiments presented here test the performance of SBI, using the relationship between the surrogate and PB simulators as a proxy for the real case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Constraining Cosmology with Simulation-based inference and Optical Galaxy Cluster Abundance

We test the robustness of simulation-based inference (SBI) in the context of cosmological parameter estimation from galaxy cluster counts and masses in simulated optical datasets. We construct ``simulations'' using analytical models for the galaxy cluster halo mass function (HMF) and for the observed richness (number of observed member galaxies) to train and test the SBI method. We compare the SBI parameter posterior samples to those from an MCMC analysis that uses the same analytical models to construct predictions of the observed data vector. The two methods exhibit comparable performance, with reliable constraints derived for the primary cosmological parameters, ($\Omega_m$ and $\sigma_8$), and richness-mass relation parameters. We also perform out-of-domain tests with observables constructed from galaxy cluster-sized halos in the Quijote simulations. Again, the SBI and MCMC results have comparable posteriors, with similar uncertainties and biases. Unsurprisingly, upon evaluating the SBI method on thousands of simulated data vectors that span the parameter space, SBI exhibits worsened posterior calibration metrics in the out-of-domain application. We note that such calibration tests with MCMC is less computationally feasible and highlight the potential use of SBI to stress-test limitations of analytical models, such as in the use for constructing models for inference with MCMC.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing Membership Inference Attacks under Distribution Shifts

Membership inference attacks (MIAs) exploit machine learning models to infer whether a data point was in the training set, posing significant privacy risks even with limited black-box access. These attacks rely on the attacker approximating the target model’s training distribution, yet the impact of distribution shifts between target and shadow models on MIA success remains underexplored. We systematically evaluate five types of distribution shifts —-cutout, jitter, Gaussian noise, label shift, and attribute shift —- at varying intensities. Our results reveal that these shifts affect MIA effectiveness in nuanced ways, with some reducing attack success while others exacerbate vulnerabilities, and the same shift can have opposite effects depending on the type of MIA. This highlights the complex interplay between distributional differences and attack performance, offering critical insights for improving model defenses against MIAs.

Shi, Yichuan [Massachusetts Institute of Technolog↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulation-based inference for neutrino interaction model parameter tuning

High-energy physics experiments studying neutrinos rely heavily on simulations of their interactions with atomic nuclei. Limitations in the theoretical understanding of these interactions typically necessitate ad hoc tuning of simulation model parameters to data. Traditional tuning methods for neutrino experiments have largely relied on simple algorithms for numerical optimization. While adequate for the modest goals of initial efforts, the complexity of future neutrino tuning campaigns is expected to increase substantially, and new approaches will be needed to make progress. In this paper, we examine the application of simulation-based inference (SBI) to the neutrino interaction model tuning for the first time. Using a previous tuning study performed by the MicroBooNE experiment as a test case, we find that our SBI algorithm can correctly infer the tuned parameter values when confronted with a mock data set generated according to the MicroBooNE procedure. This initial proof-of-principle illustrates a promising new technique for next-generation simulation tuning campaigns for the neutrino experimental community.

Tame-Narvaez, Karla [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000022249↗
DOE OSTI2025

MoE-Inference-Bench: Performance Evaluation of Mixture of Expert Large Language and Vision Models

Mixture of Experts (MoE) models have enabled the scaling of Large Language Models (LLMs) and Vision Language Models (VLMs) by achieving massive parameter counts while maintaining computational efficiency. However, MoEs introduce several inference-time challenges, including load imbalance across experts and the additional routing computational overhead. To address these challenges and fully harness the benefits of MoE, a systematic evaluation of hardware acceleration techniques is essential. We present MoE-Inference-Bench, a comprehensive study to evaluate MoE performance across diverse scenarios. We analyze the impact of batch size, sequence length, and critical MoE hyperparameters such as FFN dimensions and number of experts on throughput. We evaluate several optimization techniques on Nvidia H100 GPUs, including pruning, Fused MoE operations, speculative decoding, quantization, and various parallelization strategies. Our evaluation includes MoEs from the Mixtral, DeepSeek, OLMoE and Qwen families. The results reveal performance differences across configurations and provide insights for the efficient deployment of MoEs.

Chitty-Venkata, Krishna Teja↗
DOE OSTI2024

Approach for Inferring Full-Scope Human Reliability Data Based on Simplified Simulator Data

This paper proposes a method for inferring full-scope human reliability data based on the Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP) data. It mainly focuses on the human errors observed when using simulators with different complexity levels. In the proposed method, the manner in which human error probabilities (HEPs) change as a result of increasing simulator complexity and how simulator complexity levels are quantified represent key information for inferring full-scope data. In the present study, SHEEP error data pertaining to actual professional operators using Rancor Microworld (Rancor) (i.e., a more simplified simulator) and Compact Nuclear Simulator (CNS) (i.e., a less simplified simulator) were compared with the HuREX error data. An approach to quantifying simulator complexity levels was then proposed based on information theory and acquired eye-tracker data.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Forecasting Dark Matter Subhalo Constraints from Stellar Streams using Implicit Likelihood Inference

The evidence for dark matter (DM) remains compelling, although attempts to understand its particle nature remain inconclusive. One promising method to study DM is detecting DM subhalos through their gravitational interactions with stellar streams. In this study, we apply Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) to constrain subhalo interaction parameters, including mass, scale radius, velocity, and encounter geometry, from stellar stream kinematics. We generate particle spray simulations based on the Lagrange Cloud stripping technique, focusing on the ATLAS-Aliqa Uma stream as a test case. We train multiple NPE models across multiple observational scenarios, quantifying how kinematic completeness affects inference and forecasting constraints from upcoming surveys including LSST, 4MOST, and 10-year Gaia data. Our results demonstrate that NPE can produce accurate and well-calibrated posteriors. In the idealized case with full 6D coordinates, we achieve subhalo mass uncertainties of 15-20% for a $10^7 \, \mathrm{M_\odot}$ subhalo, with 5D coordinates (excluding radial velocities) achieving similar performance. Under realistic observational conditions, mass uncertainties range from 50% (present-day) to 20-40% (future scenarios), with comparable performance between the photometric-only LSST sample and a smaller sample that includes Gaia proper motions and 4MOST radial velocities. Most notably, we find that velocity bimodality emerges when phase space is poorly sampled, whether due to missing kinematic information or limited stellar tracers. Combining large photometric samples with targeted spectroscopic follow-up can effectively resolves this degeneracy. These results demonstrate the power of implicit likelihood inference for optimizing stellar stream observational strategies and forecasting DM subhalo constraints from upcoming surveys.

Nguyen, Tri [Northwestern U. (main); SkAI, Chicago↗
DOE OSTI2026

First Estimation of Model Parameters for Neutrino-Induced Nucleon Knockout Using Simulation-Based Inference

To enable an accurate determination of oscillation parameters, accelerator-based neutrino experiments require detailed simulations of nuclear interaction physics in the GeV regime. While substantial effort from both theory and experiment is currently being invested to improve the fidelity of these simulations, their present deficiencies typically oblige experimental collaborations to resort to empirical tuning of simulation model parameters. As the precision requirements of the field continue to become more stringent, machine learning techniques may provide a powerful means of handling corresponding growth in the complexity of future neutrino interaction model tuning exercises. To study the suitability of simulation-based inference (SBI) for this physics application, in this paper we revisit a tuned configuration of the GENIE neutrino event generator that was originally developed by the MicroBooNE collaboration. Despite closely reproducing the adopted values of four physics parameters when confronted with the tuned cross-section predictions as input, we find that our trained SBI algorithm prefers modestly different values (within MicroBooNE's assigned uncertainties) and achieves slightly better goodness-of-fit when inference is run on the experimental data set originally used by MicroBooNE. We also find that our trained algorithm can create a fair approximation of an alternative neutrino scattering simulation, NuWro, that shares only a subset of its physics model parameters with GENIE.

Tame-Narvaez, Karla [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000022249↗
DOE OSTI2026

Exploration of Real Time Inference for MI-RR Deblending on GPU/TPU Systems

The Fermilab Main Injector (MI) and Recycler Ring (RR) share a common beam loss monitor (BLM) system, making loss events difficult to attribute to their source machine when beam is present in both simultaneously. The Real-time Edge AI for Distributed Systems (READS) project addresses this by deblending BLM readings in real time using machine learning (ML). The current FPGA based implementation meets the sub-3 ms latency requirement but carries a resource intensive hls4ml development cycle, motivating exploration of GPU based deployment. This paper characterizes inference latency on an NVIDIA Jetson Orin Nano and introduces a packet organization scheme for assembling synchronized event frames from seven distributed BLM DAQ streams. Using a Python based DAQ simulation with injected timing jitter in place of unavailable live beam data, the pipeline achieved an average end to end latency of 0.456 ms (σ = 0.122 ms) across 167,000 test frames, comfortably meeting the timing constraint. Early outliers were attributed to TensorRT warm-up rather than steady state limitations, suggesting GPU based inference is a viable alternative to the existing FPGA implementation.

Yu, Kellen [Fermilab; Cornell U.]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of off-shell Higgs boson production in the $H^*\rightarrow ZZ\rightarrow 4\ell$ decay channel using a neural simulation-based inference technique in 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A measurement of off-shell Higgs boson production in the $H^*\to ZZ\to 4\ell$ decay channel is presented. The measurement uses 140 fb −1 of proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV collected by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider and supersedes the previous result in this decay channel using the same dataset. The data analysis is performed using a neural simulation-based inference method, which builds per-event likelihood ratios using neural networks. The observed (expected) off-shell Higgs boson production signal strength in the $ZZ\to 4\ell$ decay channel at 68% CL is $0.87^{+0.75}_{-0.54}$ ($1.00^{+1.04}_{-0.95}$ ). The evidence for off-shell Higgs boson production using the $ZZ\to 4\ell$ decay channel has an observed (expected) significance of 2.5σ (1.3σ). The expected result represents a significant improvement relative to that of the previous analysis of the same dataset, which obtained an expected significance of 0.5σ. When combined with the most recent ATLAS measurement in the $ZZ\to 2\ell 2\nu$ decay channel, the evidence for off-shell Higgs boson production has an observed (expected) significance of 3.7σ (2.4σ). The off-shell measurements are combined with the measurement of on-shell Higgs boson production to obtain constraints on the Higgs boson total width. The observed (expected) value of the Higgs boson width at 68% CL is $4.3^{+2.7}_{-1.9}$ ($4.1^{+3.5}_{-3.4}$ ) MeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗