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NASA NTRS1976

Low-energy electron intensities at large distances over the earth's polar cap

The eccentric-orbiting satellite Imp 5 penetrated the distant polar magnetosphere at positions corresponding to those for magnetic field lines which intersect the earth's northern polar cap. Measurements of electron intensities with E not less than 250 eV in these regions of extremely low plasma densities were gained with an electrostatic analyzer. The observational period was January-October 1970. Electron intensities within the energy range 250 eV-50 keV were less by orders of magnitude than those typically encountered within the plasma sheet and over the auroral oval. However, dramatic temporal variations of average electron intensities in the polar cap region were found for orbit-to-orbit comparisons. The observed intensity variations showed a remarkable correlation with the polarity of the magnetic sector structure in the interplanetary medium: high intensities for 'away from the sun' sectors and low intensities for 'toward' sectors.

Yeager, D. Y.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Intense magnetic fields at 1 AU: Solar cycle 20

Of the intense magnetic fields (greater than 13 gamma) observed at 1 AU during solar cycle 20 (1973-1975), 92% were associated with shocks, stream interfaces, or cold magnetic enhancements (CMEs). Most (52%) of the magnetic field intensity enhancements occurred at stream interfaces; 27% occurred behind shocks without interfaces; and 11% occurred in CMEs. The most intense fields (25 gamma to 37 gamma) followed shocks. Magnetic field intensities at interfaces did not exceed 25 gamma, suggesting a mechanism such as a magnetoacoustic wave limits the intensity ahead of streams. Intense magnetic fields persist longest behind shocks.

Burlaga, L. F.↗

NASA NTRS1982

A comparison of turbulence intensity measurements using a laser velocimeter and a hot wire in a low speed jet flow

The study involves a simultaneous measurement with both instruments along radial scans at two axial locations in the jet exiting from the turbulent pipe and an axial scan at the 75-percent radial location in the jet from the convergent nozzle. The results suggest that, within the limits of flow stationarity, both instruments yield measurements in good agreement, + or - 0.8-percent in turbulence intensity, below a turbulence intensity (the ensemble standard deviation divided by the local mean velocity) of 20 percent. From turbulence intensities of 20 percent to a maximum of 75 percent, the measurements exhibit the same trends; for reasons discussed here, however, the comparisons are not of the quality as those below 20 percent. It is found that correcting the turbulence intensity data for velocity bias errors increases the results by an average of 2 percent in turbulence intensity above the hot wire results and the uncorrected laser velocimeter data. The results are seen as calling into question the validity of using the velocity bias correction and time average techniques for turbulence intensity measurements.

Meyers, J. F.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Raman intensity as a probe of concentration near a crystal growing in solution

The feasibility of using Raman spectral scattering signals for measurements of concentration profiles near a crystal interface during growth or dissolution is discussed. With KH2PO4 (KDP) as a test material, optical multichannel analyzer (OMA) detection of a solute Raman vibrational band provided direct quantification of solute concentration with band intensity. The intersection of incident laser and Raman collection optics provided 3-D selective point measurements of the solution concentration field. Unlike many other techniques, the Raman band intensity is not sensitive to the typical temperature variations. Precision calibration of Raman intensity versus KDP concentration with less than 1 pct standard deviation error levels was demonstrated. A fiber optic, which sampled incident laser intensity and coupled it to the OMA, provided a fully synchronized monitor of fluctuations in laser power to correlate with observed Raman signals. With 1 W of laser power at the sample, good data statistics required eight repeated data collections at approximately 2.5 min collection. The accumulated time represents the concentration measurement time at one spatial location. Photomicroscopy documented a 30 micrometer diameter by 200 micrometer of laser Raman scattering region in the solution near the crystal surface. The laser beam was able to approach up to 25 micrometer from the crystal surface. However, a crystal surface reflected intensity contribution was weakly detectable. Nucleated microcrystals were seen in the crystal-growing solution. These microcrystals convect right up to the crystal surface and indicate no quiet diffusion region under normal gravity conditions. Translation of the solution cell with respect to the optics caused systematic intensity errors.

Wilkinson, R. Allen↗

NASA NTRS1992

Improvement in surface fatigue life of hardened gears by high-intensity shot peening

Two groups of carburized, hardened, and ground spur gears that were manufactured from the same heat vacuum induction melted vacuum arc melted (VIM VAR) AISI 9310 steel were endurance tested for surface fatigue. Both groups were manufactured with a standard ground 16 rms surface finish. One group was subjected to a shot peening (SP) intensity of 7 to 9A, and the second group was subjected to a SP intensity of 15 to 17A. All gears were honed after SP to a surface finish of 16 rms. The gear pitch diameter was 8.89 cm. Test conditions were a maximum Hertz stress of 1.71 GPa, a gear temperature of 350 K, and a speed of 10000 rpm. The lubricant used for the tests was a synthetic paraffinic oil with an additive package. The following results were obtained: The 10 pct. surface fatigue (pitting) life of the high intensity (15 to 17A) SPed gears was 2.15 times that of the medium intensity (7 to 9A) SPed gears, the same as that calculated from measured residual stress at a depth of 127 microns. The measured residual stress for the high intensity SPed gears was 57 pct. higher than that for the medium intensity SPed gears at a depth of 127 microns and 540 pct. higher at a depth of 51 microns.

Townsend, Dennis P.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Temporal variation of meandering intensity and domain-wide lateral oscillations of the Gulf Stream

The path of the Gulf Stream exhibits two modes of variability: wavelike spatial meanders associated with instability processes and large-sale lateral shifts of the path presumably due to atmospheric forcing. The objectives of this study are to examine the temporal variation of the intensity of spatial meandering in the stream, to characterize large-scale lateral oscillations in the stream's path, and to study the correlation betwen these two dynamically distinct modes of variability. The data used for this analysis are path displacemets ofthe Gulf Stream between 75 deg and 60 deg W obtained from AVHRR-derived (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) infrared images for the period April 1982 through December 1989. Meandering intensity, measured by the spatial root-mean-sqaure displacement of the stream path, displays a 9-month dominant periodicity which is persistent through the study period. The 9-month fluctuation in meandering intensity may be related to the interaction of Rosseby waves with the stream. Interannual variation of meandering intensity is also found to be significant, with meandering being mich more intense during 1985 than it was in 1987. Annual variation, however,is weak and not well-defined.The spatially averaged position of the stream, which reflects nonmeandering large-scale lateral oscillations of the stream path, is dominated by an annual cycle. On average, the mean position is farthest north in November and farthest south in April. The first empirical orthogonal function mode of the space-time path displacements represents lateral oscillatins that are in-phase over the space-time domain. Interannual oscillations are also observed and are found to be weaker than the annual oscillation. The eigenvalue of the first mode indicates that about 21.5% of the total space-time variability of the stream path can be attibuted to domain-wide lateral oscillation. The correlation between meandering intensity and domain-wide lateral oscillations is very weak.

Lee, Tong↗

NASA NTRS1998

Statistical Aspects of ENSO Events (1950-1997) and the El Nino-Atlantic Intense Hurricane Activity Relationship

On the basis of Trenberth's quantitative definition for marking the occurrence of an El Nino (or La Nina), one can precisely identify by month and year the starts and ends of some 15 El Nino and 10 La Nina events during the interval of 1950-1997, an interval corresponding to the most reliable for cataloging intense hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin (i.e., those of category 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale). The main purpose of this investigation is primarily two-fold: First, the statistical aspects of these identified extremes and the intervening periods between them (called "interludes") are examined and, second, the statistics of the seasonal frequency of intense hurricanes in comparison to the extremes and interludes are determined. This study clearly demonstrates that of the last 48 hurricane seasons, 20 (42 percent) can be described as being "El Nino-related" (i.e., an El Nino was in progress during all, or part, of the yearly hurricane season--June-November), 13 (27 percent) as "La Nina-related" (i.e., a La Nina was in progress during all, or part, of the yearly hurricane season), and 15 (31 percent) as "interlude-related" (i.e., neither an El Nino nor a La Nina was in progress during any portion of the yearly hurricane season). Combining the latter two subgroups into a single grouping called "non-El Nino-related" seasons, one finds that they have had a mean frequency of intense hurricanes measuring 2.8 events per season, while the El Nino-related seasons have had a mean frequency of intense hurricanes measuring 1.3 events per season, where the observed difference in the means is inferred to be statistically important at the 99.8-percent level of confidence. Therefore, as previously shown more than a decade ago using a different data set, there undeniably exists an El Nino-Atlantic hurricane activity relationship, one which also extends to the class of intense hurricanes. During the interval of 1950-1997, fewer intense hurricanes occurred during El Nino-related seasons (always less than or equal to 3 and usually less than or equal to 2, this latter value having been true for 18 of the 20 El Nino-related seasons), while more usually occurred during non-El Nino-related seasons (typically greater than or equal to 2, having been true for 22 of the 28 non-El Nino-related seasons). Implications for the 1998 and 1999 hurricane seasons are discussed.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Trends in the Annual Frequency of Atlantic Basin Intense Hurricanes: Implications for the Near-Term

During the interval of 1944-1997, 120 intense hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale) have been observed in the Atlantic basin. These intense hurricanes have had an observed annual frequency of 0-7 events per year (having a mean, mode, and median equal to about 2 events per year), being preferentially lower during El Ninio years and higher during non-El Ninio years. Also, it has recently been established that a long-term downward trend in the annual frequency of intense hurricanes, spanning about five decades, has taken place, although this trend can, alternatively, be explained as a shift from a more active state prior to the mid 1960's to a less active state thereafter (rather than as a simple linear decline). In this paper, on the basis of 10-yr moving averages, the long4erm trend of the frequency of intense hurricanes is compared against one for the annual mean temperature at Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland (which serves as a proxy for climatic change). Interestingly, the two sets of 10-yr moving averages correlate extremely well, especially, when incorporating a slight 6-yr lag between them (with temperature leading; r = 0.90). This suggests that the current leading trend of temperature, which had been downward, but now is upward, may portend a return to the more active state for intense hurricanes. Thus, the 1998 season (presuming the abatement of El Ninio prior to the start of the hurricane season), and for several years thereafter (at least, into the early years of the next millennium), may have an annual frequency of intense hurricanes that is commensurate with the previously observed active state that was seen prior to the mid 1960's. If true, then, the shift to the more active state, probably, occurred in the mid-to-late 1980's, apparently, having gone undetected because of the masking, or modulating, effect of El Ninio, which has been rampant since the mid-to-late 1980's.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Assessing the Transferability of Statistical Predictive Models for Leaf Area Index Between Two Airborne Discrete Return LiDAR Sensor Designs Within Multiple Intensely Managed Loblolly Pine Forest Locations in the South-Eastern USA

Leaf area is an important forest structural variable which serves as the primary means of mass and energy exchange within vegetated ecosystems. The objective of the current study was to determine if leaf area index (LAI) could be estimated accurately and consistently in five intensively managed pine plantation forests using two multiple-return airborne LiDAR datasets. Field measurements of LAI were made using the LiCOR LAI2000 and LAI2200 instruments within 116 plots were established of varying size and within a variety of stand conditions (i.e. stand age, nutrient regime and stem density) in North Carolina and Virginia in 2008 and 2013. A number of common LiDAR return height and intensity distribution metrics were calculated (e.g. average return height), in addition to ten indices, with two additional variants, utilized in the surrounding literature which have been used to estimate LAI and fractional cover, were calculated from return heights and intensity, for each plot extent. Each of the indices was assessed for correlation with each other, and was used as independent variables in linear regression analysis with field LAI as the dependent variable. All LiDAR derived metrics were also entered into a forward stepwise linear regression. The results from each of the indices varied from an R2 of 0.33 (S.E. 0.87) to 0.89 (S.E. 0.36). Those indices calculated using ratios of all returns produced the strongest correlations, such as the Above and Below Ratio Index (ABRI) and Laser Penetration Index 1 (LPI1). The regression model produced from a combination of three metrics did not improve correlations greatly (R2 0.90; S.E. 0.35). The results indicate that LAI can be predicted over a range of intensively managed pine plantation forest environments accurately when using different LiDAR sensor designs. Those indices which incorporated counts of specific return numbers (e.g. first returns) or return intensity correlated poorly with field measurements. There were disparities between the number of different types of returns and intensity values when comparing the results from two LiDAR sensors, indicating that predictive models developed using such metrics are not transferable between datasets with different acquisition parameters. Each of the indices were significantly correlated with one another, with one exception (LAI proxy), in particular those indices calculated from all returns, which indicates similarities in information content for those indices. It can then be argued that LiDAR indices have reached a similar stage in development to those calculated from optical-spectral sensors, but which offer a number of advantages, such as the reduction or removal of saturation issues in areas of high biomass.

Sumnall, Matthew↗

NASA NTRS2019

Characteristics of Relativistic Microburst Intensity from SAMPEX Observations

Relativistic electron microbursts are an important electron loss process from the radiation belts into the atmosphere. These precipitation events have been shown to significantly impact the radiation belt fluxes and atmospheric chemistry. In this study we address a lack of knowledge about the relativistic microburst intensity using measurements of 21,746 microbursts from the Solar Anomalous Magnetospheric Particle Explorer (SAMPEX).We find that the relativistic microburst intensity increases as we move inward in L, with a higher proportion of low-intensity microbursts (<2,250 [MeV cu.cm sr s](exp −1)) in the 03–11 magnetic local time region. The mean microburst intensity increases by a factor of 1.7 as the geomagnetic activity level increases and the proportion of high-intensity relativistic microbursts (>2,250 [MeV cu.cm2 sr s](exp −1)) in the 03–11 magnetic local time region increases as geomagnetic activity increases, consistent with changes in the whistler mode chorus wave activity. Comparisons between relativistic microburst properties and trapped fluxes suggest that the microburst intensities are not limited by the trapped flux present alongside the scattering processes. However, microburst activity appears to correspond to the changing trapped flux; more microbursts occur when the trapped fluxes are enhancing, suggesting that microbursts are linked to processes causing the increased trapped fluxes. Finally, modeling of the impact of a published microburst spectra on a flux tube shows that microbursts are capable of depleting <500-keV electrons within 1 hr and depleting higher-energy electrons in 1–23 hr.

Douma, E.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Ames-2021 CO 2 Dipole Moment Surface and IR Line Lists: Toward 0.1% Uncertainty for CO 2 IR Intensities

A highly accurate CO 2 ab initio dipole moment surface (DMS), Ames-2021, is reported along with 12 C 16 O 2 infrared (IR) intensity comparisons approaching a 1–4‰ level of agreement and uncertainty. The Ames-2021 DMS was accurately fitted from CCSD(T) finite-field dipoles computed with the aug-cc-pVXZ (X = T, Q, 5) basis for C atom and the d-aug-cc-pVXZ (X = T, Q, 5) basis for O atoms, and extrapolated to the one particle basis set limit. Fitting σ(rms) is 3.8 × 10^(–7) au for 4443 geometries below 15 000 per cm . The corresponding IR intensity, S Ames-2021 , are computed using the Ames-2 potential energy surface (PES), which is the best PES available for CO 2 . Compared to high accuracy IR studies for 2001i–00001 and 3001i–00001 bands, S Ames-2021 matches NIST experiment-based intensities [S NIST-HIT16 or S HIT20 ] to −1.0 ± 1.3‰, or matches DLR experiment-based intensities [S DLR-HIT16/UCL/Ames ] to 1.9 ± 3.7‰. This indicates the systematic deviations and uncertainties have been significantly reduced in S Ames-2021 . The S UCL2015 (or S HITRAN2016 ) have larger deviations (vs S DLR ) and uncertainties (vs S DLR , S NIST ) which are attributed to the less accurate Ames-1 PES adopted in UCL-296 line list calculation. The S Ames-2021 intensity of 12 C 16 O 2 and 13 C 16 O 2 is utilized to derive new absolute 13 C/ 12 C ratios for Vienna PeeDee Belemnite (VPDB) with uncertainty reduced by 1/3 or 2/3. Further evaluation of S Ames-2021 are carried out on those CO 2 bands discussed in the HITRAN2020 update paper. Consistent improvements and better accuracies are found in band-by-band analysis, except for those bands strongly affected by Coriolis couplings, or very weak bands measured with relatively larger experimental uncertainties. The Ames-2021 296 K IR line lists are generated for 13 CO 2 isotopologues, with 18,000 per and S 296K > 1E–31) cm/molecule cutoff and then combined with CDSD line positions (except 14 C 16 O 2 ). The Ames-2021 DMS and 296 K IR line lists represent a major improvement over previous CO 2 theoretical IR intensity studies, including Ames-2016, UCL-296, and recent UCL DMS 2021 update. A real 1 permille level of agreement and uncertainty will definitely require both more accurate PES and more accurate DMS.

Chemical calculations↗

NASA NTRS2023

High-Energy (> 40 MeV) Proton Intensity Enhancements Associated with the Passage of Interplanetary Shocks at 1 au

We analyze periods with elevated >40 MeV proton intensities observed near Earth over a time span of 43 years (1973-2016) that coincide with the passage of interplanetary shocks. Typically, elevated proton intensities result from large solar energetic particle (SEP) events. The interplanetary shocks observed during these elevated-intensity periods may or may not be related to the origin of the SEP events. By choosing those cases when the shocks can be confidently associated with the solar eruption that generated the SEP event, we analyze the components of these SEP events that are localized in the vicinity of the shock (so-called “energetic storm particles (ESPs)"), focusing on those events where the ESP component exceeds 40 MeV. We examine the interdependence of these high-energy ESPs with (i) the properties of the solar eruptions that generated the shocks and the SEP events, and (ii) the parameters of the shocks at their arrival at 1 au. The solar eruptions at the origin of the shocks producing >40 MeV proton ESP intensity enhancements are within ±50° longitude of central meridian and are associated with fast coronal mass ejections (plane-of-sky speeds ≳1000 km s -1 ). The ESP events with the largest >40 MeV proton intensity increases tend to occur when there are structures such as intervening interplanetary coronal mass ejections and other unrelated shocks present in the solar wind through which the shock is propagating. Among the various local shock parameters considered, only the shock speed shows a certain degree of correlation with the observed ESP intensity increase.

Solar energetic particles↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Increased Treadmill Running and Lower-Body Resistance Training Intensity May Attenuate Aerobic Capacity Loss During Spaceflight

BACKGROUND: In-flight exercise training is the primary countermeasure to mitigate spaceflight-induced decrements in strength and aerobic capacity. Despite high-quality exercise capabilities and prescriptions aboard the International Space Station (ISS), most astronauts experience strength and aerobic capacity loss; however, significant individual variability exists. Recent findings suggest that greater in-flight running (i.e., distance per session) and lower-body resistance exercise intensity (i.e., load relative to body weight) help preserve strength. Whether similar variables contribute to the preservation of aerobic capacity during spaceflight is unknown. METHODS: A NASA database of exercise performance metrics was used to identify long-duration (≥ 90 days) ISS crew who completed pre- and post-flight aerobic capacity testing (VO2peak, cycle ergometry, n = 44). “Responders” (R) were classified as those that maintained or improved VO2peak (n = 13; 1.4 ± 3.3%), and “non-responders” (NR) were those with the most severe decrements (n = 13; -20.0 ± 3.4%) from pre- to post-flight. In-flight exercise records (cycling, treadmill, resistance exercise) were aggregated across flight weeks. Independent t-tests or Mann-Whitney U tests were used to compare training variables (i.e., frequency, time, intensity, volume) between R and NR. RESULTS: Consistent with the variables contributing to strength protection, in-flight running distance (R: 5.0 ± 0.7; NR: 4.2 ± 1.0 km/session, p = 0.020) and lower-body resistance exercise intensity (R: 110.9 ± 27.3; NR: 91.7 ± 16.5% body weight, p = 0.040) were greater in R than NR. Active running time was also greater in R than NR (R: 101.1 ± 20.4; NR: 82.3 ± 23.5 min/wk; p = 0.039). However, no group differences in cycling frequency, intensity, or time, as well as upper body or core resistance exercise intensity, volume, or frequency were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Although physiologically distinct stimuli, the exercise training variables contributing to the preservation of both strength and aerobic capacity during microgravity exposure appear to be consistent. Increased running time and distance, but not cycling, combined with higher-intensity lower-body resistance exercise, may help mitigate losses in both aerobic capacity and strength during long-duration spaceflight.

Alyssa N Varanoske↗

DOE OSTI2024

Path-Integrated Stereo X-Ray Digital Image Correlation: Resolving the Violation of Conservation of Intensity

In this study, x-ray imaging addresses many challenges with visible light imaging in extreme environments, where optical diagnostics such as digital image correlation (DIC) and particle image velocimetry (PIV) suffer biases from index of refraction changes and/or cannot penetrate visibly occluded objects. However, conservation of intensity—the fundamental principle of optical image correlation algorithms—may be violated if ancillary components in the X-ray path besides the surface or fluid of interest move during the test. The test series treated in this work sought to characterize the safe use of fiber-epoxy composites in aerospace and aviation industries during fire accident scenarios. Stereo X-ray DIC was employed to measure test unit deformation in an extreme thermal environment involving a visibly occluded test unit, incident surface heating to temperatures above 600°C, and flames and soot from combusting epoxy decomposition gasses. The objective of the current work is to evaluate two solutions to resolve the violation of conservation of intensity that resulted from both the test unit and the thermal chamber deforming during the test. The first solution recovered conservation of intensity by pre-processing the path-integrated X-ray images to isolate the DIC pattern of the test unit from the thermal chamber components. These images were then correlated with standard, optical DIC software. The second solution, called Path-Integrated Digital Image Correlation (PI-DIC), modified the fundamental matching criterion of DIC to account for multiple, independently-moving components contributing to the final image intensity. The PI-DIC algorithm was extended from a 2D framework to a stereo framework and implemented in a custom DIC software. Both solutions accurately measured the cylindrical shape of the undeformed test unit, recovering radii values of R = 76.20±0.12 mm compared to the theoretical radius of R theor = 76.20 mm. During the test, the test unit bulged asymmetrically as decomposition gasses pressurized the interior and eventually burned in a localized jet. Both solutions measured the heterogeneous radius of this bulge, which reached a maximum of approximately R = 91 mm, with a discrepancy of 2–3% between the two solutions. Two solutions that resolve the violation of conservation of intensity for path-integrated X-ray images were developed. Both were successfully employed in a stereo X-ray DIC configuration to measure deformation of an aluminum-skinned, fiber-epoxy composite test unit in a fire accident scenario.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning-aided line intensity ratio technique applied to deuterium plasmas

It has been demonstrated that the electron density, n e , and temperature, T e , are successfully evaluated from He I line intensity ratios coupled with machine learning (ML). In this paper, the ML-aided line intensity ratio technique is applied to deuterium (D) plasmas with 0.031 < n e (10 18 m –3 ) < 0.67 and 2.3 < T e (eV) < 5.1 in the PISCES-A linear plasma device. Two line intensity ratios, D α /D γ and D α /D β , are used to develop a predictive model for n e and T e separately. Reasonable agreement of both ne and Te with those from single Langmuir probe measurements is obtained at n e > 0.1 × 10 18 m –3 . Addition of the D 2 /D α intensity ratio, where the D 2 band emission intensity is integrated in a wavelength range of λ ~ 557.4–643.0 nm, is found to improve the prediction of, in particular, n e , and T e . It is also confirmed that the technique works for D plasmas with 0.067 < n e (10 18 m –3 ) < 6.1 and 0.8 < T e (eV) < 15 in another linear plasma device, PISCES-RF. The two training datasets from PISCES-A and PISCES-RF are combined, and unified predictive models for n e and T e give reasonable agreement with probe measurements in both devices.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

How Generalizable is a Machine-Learning Approach for Modeling Hub-Height Turbulence Intensity?

Hub-height turbulence intensity is essential for a variety of wind energy applications. However, simulating it is a challenging task. Simple analytical models have been proposed in the literature, but they all come with significant limitations. Even state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting model, currently struggle to predict hub-height turbulence intensity. Here, we propose a machine-learning-based approach to predict hub-height turbulence intensity from other hub-height and ground-level atmospheric measurements, using observations from the Perdigao field campaign and the Southern Great Plains atmospheric observatory. We consider a random forest regression model, which we validate first at the site used for training and then under a more robust round-robin approach, and compare its performance to a multivariate linear regression. The random forest successfully outperforms the linear regression in modeling hub-height turbulence intensity, with a normalized root-mean-square error as low as 0.014 when using 30-minute average data. In order to achieve such low root-mean-square error values, the knowledge of hub-height turbulence kinetic energy (which can instead be modeled in the Weather Research and Forecasting model) is needed. Interestingly, we find that the performance of the random forest generalizes well when considering a round-robin validation (i.e., when the algorithm is trained at one site such as Perdigao or Southern Great Plains) and then applied to model hub-height turbulence intensity at the other location.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of the Four-Dimensional Ensemble-Variational Hybrid Data Assimilation with Self-Consistent Regional Background Error Covariance for Improved Hurricane Intensity Forecasts

The feasibility of a hurricane initialization framework based on the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)-based four-dimensional ensemble-variational (GSI-4DEnVar) hybrid data assimilation system for the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model (HWRF) model is evaluated in this study. The system considers the temporal evolution of error covariances via the use of four-dimensional ensemble perturbations that are provided by high-resolution, self-consistent HWRF ensemble forecasts. It is different from the configuration of the GSI-based three-dimensional ensemble-variational (GSI-3DEnVar) hybrid data assimilation system, similar to that used in the operational HWRF, which employs background error covariances provided by coarser-resolution global ensembles from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) ensemble Kalman filtering data assimilation system. In addition, our proposed initialization framework discards the empirical intensity correction in the vortex initialization package that is employed by the GSI-3DEnVar initialization framework in operational HWRF. Data assimilation and numerical simulation experiments for Hurricanes Joaquin (2015), Patricia (2015), and Matthew (2016) are conducted during their intensity changes. The impacts of two initialization frameworks on the HWRF analyses and forecasts are compared. It is found that GSI-4DEnVar leads to a reduction in track, minimum sea level pressure (MSLP), and maximum surface wind (MSW) forecast errors in all of the HWRF simulations, compared with the GSI-3DEnVar initialization framework. With assimilating high-resolution observations within the hurricane inner-core region, GSI-4DEnVar can produce the initial hurricane intensity reasonably well without the empirical vortex intensity correction. Further diagnoses with Hurricane Joaquin indicate that GSI-4DEnVar can significantly alleviate the imbalances in the initial conditions and enhance the performance of the data assimilation and subsequent hurricane intensity and precipitation forecasts

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Classification Analysis of Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity Changes Prior to Landfall

This study evaluates the ability of a random forest classifier to identify tropical cyclone (TC) intensification or weakening prior to landfall over the western region of the Southwest Pacific Ocean (SWPO) basin. For both Australia mainland and SWPO island cases, when a TC first crosses land after spending ≥24 h over the ocean, the closest hour prior to the intersection is considered as the landfall hour. If the maximum wind speed (V max ) at the landfall hour increased or remained the same from the 24-h mark prior to landfall, the TC is labeled as intensifying and if the V max at the landfall hour decreases, the TC is labeled as weakening. Geophysical and aerosol variables closest to the 24 h before landfall hour were collected for each sample. The random forest model with leave-one-out cross validation and the random oversampling example technique was identified as the best-performing classifier for both mainland and island cases. The model identified longitude, initial intensity, and sea skin temperature as the most important variables for the mainland and island landfall classification decisions. Incorrectly classified cases from the test data were analyzed by sorting the cases by their initial intensity hour, landfall hour, monthly distribution, and 24-h intensity changes. TC intensity changes near land strongly impact coastal preparations such as wind damage and flood damage mitigations; hence, this study will contribute to improve identifying and prioritizing prediction of important variables contributing to TC intensity change before landfall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗