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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Prediction of Creep-Induced Strain Using a Symbolic Regression-Based Model

Material creep under high-temperature conditions limits the lifetime and safety of structural systems such as advanced nuclear reactors. Conventional creep testing is slow and often produces inconsistent results across nominally identical experiments, making lifetime prediction uncertain. Here, to address these challenges, this work develops a data-driven symbolic regression (SR) model that consolidates results from duplicate creep tests and predicts the remaining strain-time curve of an ongoing experiment. The method uses piece-wise multi-objective SR with physical constraints to generate analytic, interpretable functions describing transient creep strain. Applied to Inconel Alloy 617 data, the approach achieved relative mean absolute errors of 1.0–9.5%, providing closed-form predictions of strain evolution. These results demonstrate a first step toward reducing the duration and cost of long-term creep testing while retaining physically interpretable model forms.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

DECOVALEX-2023: Task A Final Report

Task A, also known as HGFrac, examines the fracturing processes that may occur in the Callovo-Oxfordian claystone (COx) in the context of the high-level (HLW) and intermediate-level long-lived (ILW-LL) radioactive waste repository in France. Understanding these processes and improving numerical models to reproduce them will aid in the design, optimization, and safety of the repository. Heat and gas fracturing are studied in two independent subtasks following a stepwise approach: laboratory tests/benchmark exercises, in-situ experiment, and finally, an application case. The in-situ heater experiment aimed to thermally induce a hydraulic fracture; temperature and pore pressure were monitored to detect any evidence of fracturing. The in-situ gas injection experiment aimed to study the effect of the stress orientation and gas injection kinetics on the gas fracturing process. The occurrence of fracturing was monitored by gas pressure measured in the injection interval. In both experiments, the excavation-induced fracture network around the heater/injection boreholes played an important role in the reduction of the compressive stress state, leading to both a tensile and shear failure response of the COx. During the first two years of the project, the research teams working on each task developed and/or proposed numerical approaches for reproducing the occurrence of fracturing in the in-situ experiments. The failure criteria were defined by reproducing the measurements from laboratory extension tests for the heat fracturing subtask. In the gas fracturing subtask, their approaches were used for simulating several benchmark exercises, and an inter-comparison between models was carried out. In both tasks, the developed approaches were compared with a simplified approach considering poro-elasticity for the mechanical behaviour of the COx. Most of the developed approaches are based on a continuous medium that takes into account variations in hydraulic properties due to mechanical degradation, such as plastic deformation or damage. Other approaches implicitly modelled weak planes or embedded discontinuities to reproduce fracture propagation. The potential for fracture initiation was also studied through of a discrete approach. In the second half of the project, the research teams mainly focused on interpretative modelling of two in-situ experiments and a blind prediction exercise to test their respective approaches. The models developed by the research teams were also applied at the repository scale to evaluate fracture initiation in a case study under vi unfavourable conditions, particularly in terms of spacing between High-Level Waste cells. The results showed that the poro-elasticity approach could be an efficient tool for understanding the main processes occurring in the COx. One example is the explicit representation of the excavation-induced fracture network around the boreholes, which yielded acceptable results compared to the measurement data. However, advanced approaches were needed to evaluate the potential increase of the excavation-induced fracture network extend and better understand fracture initiation. The stress analyses carried out by the teams revealed that hydraulic boundary conditions had a strong impact on fracture initiation in the heater experiment. Furthermore, in most cases, the results required higher pore pressure increments to reach fracturing than those measured in the experiment. This implies that the measurements may have been biased by the packer’s capacity to fully isolate the piezometric chambers, leading to lower pressures. On the contrary, there was no agreement on the fracturing mode, as some reported either shear or tensile fracturing, while others reported a combination of the two modes. In the case of gas fracturing, the research teams were limited to the comparison of a single point, which complicated their task. Nonetheless, the numerical results were able to reproduce the measurements and capture processes such as longitudinal gas flow through the excavation-induced fracture network, as suggested by some evidence in the observation piezometric chambers. The numerical models also agreed with the measurements in the sense of higher probability of developing along the injection borehole than radially towards the sound rock. The approaches developed by the research teams showed that they are capable of analysing and reproducing fracture initiation in the COx. However, areas of future work should focus on the fracture propagation and fracture aperture, which were out of the scope of this task. To this end, additional data must be gathered for the parameter characterisation and validation of the numerical models. Nonetheless, various approaches showed promising results as they were able to reproduce fracture development under certain conditions.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Balancing Trade-offs: Adaptive Differential Privacy in Interpretable Machine Learning Models

In the advancing field of machine learning, balancing accuracy, interpretability, and privacy represents a significant challenge. The problem is exacerbated by the widespread deployment of pre-trained models locally in diverse applications, which could lead to various amounts of privacy leakage. Conventional Differential Privacy strategies, in which uniform noises are applied to model gradients, guarantee data privacy at the expense of accuracy and interpretability. This paper introduces a Feature-Sensitive Adaptive Differential Privacy (FADP) framework with a unique noise-adding strategy. Noises are adaptively added based on feature importance clustering, where important features are considered for interpretability. By employing a unique masking technique, FADP selectively preserves crucial features with minimal noise interference, maintaining accuracy while enhancing interpretability. The FADP framework addresses the limitations of traditional DP methods by preserving critical channels and improving interpretability — a vital requirement in machine learning applications that demand transparency in model decisions. Through comprehensive testing, FADP is shown to balance the trade-offs among accuracy, privacy, and interpretability, marking a substantial advancement in the field of privacy-preserving machine learning.

Farhad Riya, Farhin [University of Tennessee, Knox↗
NASA NTRS1985

The calculation of theoretical chromospheric models and the interpretation of solar spectra from rockets and spacecraft

Solar chromospheric models are described. The models included are based on the observed spectrum, and on the assumption of hydrostatic equilibrium. The calculations depend on realistic solutions of the radiative transfer and statistical equilibrium equations for optically thick lines and continua, and on including the effects of large numbers of lines throughout the spectrum. Although spectroheliograms show that the structure of the chromosphere is highly complex, one-dimensional models of particular features are reasonably successful in matching observed spectra. Such models were applied to the interpretation of chromospheric observations.

Avrett, E. H.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo Approach to Inference in Transient Surface Kinetics

Here, in this work, we develop a novel Bayesian approach to study the adsorption and desorption of CO onto a Pd(111) surface, a process of great importance in natural sciences. The motivation for this work comes from the recent availability of time-resolved infrared spectroscopy data and the need for model interpretability and uncertainty quantification in chemical processes. The objective is to learn the relevant parameters that characterize the process: coverage with time, rate constants, activation energies, and pre-exponential factors. Our approach consists of three main schemes: (i) a problem design and probabilistic model for the whole system, (ii) a particle Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler to learn the hidden coverages and rate constant parameters, and (iii) two Bayesian formulations to infer the activation energies and pre-exponential factors. The flexibility of the Bayesian framework allows for uncertainty quantification where possible and integration of mathematical constraints in the model to reflect the system physically. We found that our results for the activation energies and pre-exponential factor are in agreement with those reported in the experimental literature, independently, and we provide discussions on the advantages and disadvantages as well as applicability to other systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Street-level temperature estimation using graph neural networks: Performance, feature embedding and interpretability

Estimating street-level air temperature is a challenging task due to the highly heterogeneous urban surfaces, canyon-like street morphology, and the diverse physical processes in the built environment. Though pioneering studies have embarked on investigations via data-driven approaches, many questions remain to be answered. Here, in this study, we leveraged an innovative framework and redefined the street-level temperature estimation problem using Graph Neural Networks (GNN) with spatial embedding techniques. The results showed that GNN models are more capable and consistent of estimating street-level temperature among tested locations, benefiting from its unique strength in handling extensive data over unstructured graph topology. In addition, we conducted in-depth analysis of feature importance to enhance the model interpretability. Among the urban features analyzed in this study, the time-variant canopy density and meter-level land use data emerge as crucial factors. Our findings highlight GNN 's high potential in capturing the complex dynamics between urban elements and their impacts on microclimate, thus offering valuable insights for comprehensive urban data collection and urban climate modeling in general. Collectively, this study also contributes to urban planning and policy by providing avenues to enhance city resilience against climate change, thereby advancing the agenda for environmental stewardship and urban sustainability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1987

On the simple models for the interpretation of centimeter-wavelength radio observations of asteroids

The predictions of the two-layer models used to interpret radio spectra of the asteroids have been examined. It is clear that one must treat the models with caution as the physics is highly simplifed. Although the predictions are in accord with physical expectations, careful attention to the circumstances of the observations is essential. The lack of short-centimeter wavelength measurements of dielectric properties is especially vexing. Some simple improvements to the models based on studies of the lunar radio emission by Keihm and using radar measurements of asteroid surface characteristics by Ostro and colleagues are suggested. Even so, the calculation of a realistic continuum-emission spectrum for asteroidal bodies from 20 cm wavelength to 20 microns wavelength remains a formidable task.

Webster, William J., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2024

CMPLE: Correlation Modeling to Decode Photosynthesis Using the Minorize–Maximize Algorithm

In plant genomic experiments, correlations among various biological traits (phenotypes) give new insights into how genetic diversity may have tuned biological processes to enhance fitness under diverse conditions. Consequently, knowing how the correlations are affected by genetic (G) and environmental (E) factors helps develop climate-resilient plants. However, the current literature lacks any method for assessing the effect of predictors on pairwise correlations among multiple phenotypes together with easily interpretable model parameters. To address this need, we propose to model pairwise correlations directly in terms of G and E and develop a computationally efficient inference procedure. Two major novelties in our methodology are (1) the use of a composite pairwise likelihood method to avoid the positive definiteness restriction on the correlation matrix and (2) the use of a novel Minorize–Maximize (MM) algorithm for the efficient estimation of a large number of parameters. The proposed method shows excellent numerical performance on synthetic datasets. Here, the analysis of the motivating data on cowpea reveals that the rates of solar energy storage by photosynthesis (the aggregate trait) are differentially affected by different genetic loci through two distinct processes: “photoinhibition” which results from photodamage caused by excess light, and “photoprotection” which protects plants from photodamage but also results in energy loss.

Correlation modeling↗
DOE OSTI2026

DEMO-FTES: Development, Monitoring, and Control of Fracture Thermal Energy Storage in Crystalline Rock Formations (CRADA Final Report)

The DEMO-FTES project investigated the feasibility of Fracture Thermal Energy Storage (FTES) as a seasonal energy storage solution in crystalline rock formations. FTES leverages hydraulically induced fractures to exchange heat between circulating fluids and the surrounding rock mass, enabling long-term thermal energy retention due to the high specific heat and low thermal conductivity of rock. This approach has the potential to reduce heating and cooling energy demands and enhance building energy resilience. The project combined dimensional analysis, numerical modeling, laboratory experiments, and meso-scale field tests to evaluate FTES performance and advance its technology readiness level from 3 to 5. Scaling analysis identified key dimensionless parameters governing heat transfer and fluid flow, ensuring laboratory and field tests were representative of larger-scale systems. Numerical simulations using TOUGH and iTOUGH2 frameworks supported experiment design and interpretation, modeling fracture geometry, thermal-hydraulic behavior, and thermo-mechanical coupling. Laboratory tests at EPFL involved creating single and multiple fractures in 25 cm cubic samples of Gabbro and Granite under true triaxial stress.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Statistical inference of anomalous thermal transport with uncertainty quantification for interpretive 2D SOL models

The critical task of inferring anomalous cross-field transport coefficients is addressed in simulations of boundary plasmas with fluid models. A workflow for parameter inference in the UEDGE fluid code is developed using Bayesian optimization with parallelized sampling and integrated uncertainty quantification. In this workflow, transport coefficients are inferred by maximizing their posterior probability distribution, which is generally multidimensional and non-Gaussian. Uncertainty quantification is integrated throughout the optimization within the Bayesian framework that combines diagnostic uncertainties and model limitations. As a concrete example, we infer the anomalous electron thermal diffusivity $\chi_\perp$ from an interpretive 2D model describing electron heat transport in the conduction-limited region with radiative power loss. The workflow is first benchmarked against synthetic data and then tested on H-, L-, and I-mode discharges to match their midplane temperature and divertor heat flux profiles. We demonstrate that the workflow efficiently infers diffusivity and its associated uncertainty, generating 2D profiles that match 1D measurements. Future efforts will focus on incorporating more complicated fluid models and analyzing transport coefficients inferred from a large database of experimental results.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2024

Promoting the regulatory acceptance of combined ion and neutron irradiation for material degradation in nuclear reactors

The Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program within the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy has developed its current recommendation for promoting the use of combined ion irradiation and neutron irradiation for the accelerated qualification of materials to be deployed in nuclear reactors. This plan is intended to provide a collaborative path forward that can be adopted by academia, national laboratories, and industry, and has been developed with input from the regulatory research arm of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). To deploy new materials or materials manufactured with new technologies, such as additive manufacturing, materials must be evaluated for reactor-induced degradation from the combination of harsh temperatures, corrosive environments, and radiation fields. However, rapid deployment of materials necessitates accelerated testing methods rather than relying on years of neutron irradiation in a material test reactor. Ion irradiation has demonstrated success in reproducing material microstructure and select property evolution resulting from neutron irradiation with three to four orders of magnitude reduction in time and cost, making it an ideal candidate for accelerated irradiation testing. This presentation provides context governing both the scientific and regulatory aspects of the proposed goal. The discussion is aimed at a broad audience including researchers from industry, national laboratories, and academia. The recommended path forward is presented as a conceptual framework of specific steps. In brief, the strategy entails developing an integrated ion and neutron irradiation test plan for the material property of interest based on the fundamental tenet of the linkage of microstructure and properties in materials. Physics-based modeling interprets ion irradiation data and predicts neutron irradiation microstructure and properties with uncertainty bounds. The first round of testing is sufficient for an initial licensing application using a risk-informed approach, while a minimum required neutron irradiation test plan reduces cost and time requirements. A surveillance program with witness specimens in-reactor provides additional data over time to improve model predictions to higher damage levels and further reduce uncertainty bounds, which can be used for license extensions or longer lifetimes in new license applications.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1984

The impulsive hard X-rays from solar flares

A technique for determining the physical arrangement of a solar flare during the impulsive phase was developed based upon a nonthermal model interpretation of the emitted hard X-rays. Accurate values are obtained for the flare parameters, including those which describe the magnetic field structure and the beaming of the energetic electrons, parameters which have hitherto been mostly inaccessible. The X-ray intensity height structure can be described readily with a single expression based upon a semi-empirical fit to the results from many models. Results show that the degree of linear polarization of the X-rays from a flaring loop does not exceed 25 percent and can easily and naturally be as low as the polarization expected from a thermal model. This is a highly significant result in that it supersedes those based upon less thorough calculations of the electron beam dynamics and requires that a reevaluation of hopes of using polarization measurements to discriminate between categories of flare models.

Leach, J.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Fault friction, regional stress, and crust-mantle coupling in southern California from finite element models

To determine the correct fault rheology of the Transverse Ranges area of California, a new finite element to represent faults and a mangle drag element are introduced into a set of 63 simulation models of anelastic crustal strain. It is shown that a slip rate weakening rheology for faults is not valid in California. Assuming that mantle drag effects on the crust's base are minimal, the optimal coefficient of friction in the seismogenic portion of the fault zones is 0.4-0.6 (less than Byerly's law assumed to apply elsewhere). Depending on how the southern California upper mantle seismic velocity anomaly is interpreted, model results are improved or degraded. It is found that the location of the mantle plate boundary is the most important secondary parameter, and that the best model is either a low-stress model (fault friction = 0.3) or a high-stress model (fault friction = 0.85), each of which has strong mantel drag. It is concluded that at least the fastest moving faults in southern California have a low friction coefficient (approximtely 0.3) because they contain low strength hydrated clay gouges throughout the low-temperature seismogenic zone.

Bird, P.↗
DOE OSTI2026

SODAs: sparse optimization for the discovery of differential and algebraic equations

Differential-algebraic equations (DAEs) integrate ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with algebraic constraints, providing a fundamental framework for developing models of dynamical systems characterized by time-scale separation, conservation laws and physical constraints. While sparse optimization has revolutionized model development by allowing data-driven discovery of parsimonious models from a library of possible equations, existing approaches for dynamical systems assume DAEs can be reduced to ODEs by eliminating variables before model discovery. This assumption limits the applicability of such methods for DAE systems with unknown constraints and time scales. We introduce sparse optimization for differential-algebraic systems (SODAs), a data-driven method for the identification of DAEs in their explicit form. By discovering the algebraic and dynamic components sequentially without prior identification of the algebraic variables, this approach leads to a sequence of convex optimization problems. It has the advantage of discovering interpretable models that preserve the structure of the underlying physical system. To this end, SODAs improves since SODAs is singular numerical stability when handling high correlations between library terms, caused by near-perfect algebraic relationships, by iteratively refining the conditioning of the candidate library. We demonstrate the performance of our method on biological, mechanical and electrical systems, showcasing its robustness to noise in both simulated time series and real-time experimental data.

DAE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predictive models of the genetic bases underlying budding yeast fitness in multiple environments

Abstract The ability of organisms to adapt and survive depends on the effects of genes and the environment on fitness. However, the multigenic nature of fitness and genotype-by-environment interactions hinder our understanding of the genetic basis of fitness. Here, we established fitness prediction models for 35 environments using machine learning and existing fitness data and different genetic variant types for a Saccharomyces cerevisiae population. Models revealed that the predictive ability of genetic variants varied across environments, with copy number variants explaining the majority of fitness variation in most cases. Model interpretation showed that different variant types identified distinct gene sets associated with predictive variants. These gene sets were significantly enriched in experimentally validated genes affecting fitness in only a subset of environments, indicating that many genes influencing fitness remain unexplored. Notably, non-experimentally validated genes were more important than validated ones for fitness predictions. Gene contributions to predictions were both isolate- and environment-dependent, pointing to gene-by-gene and gene-by-environment interactions. Furthermore, models uncovered experimentally validated and novel candidate genetic interactions for a well-characterized stress, the fungicide benomyl. These findings highlight the feasibility of identifying the genetic basis of fitness by using different genetic variant types and offer novel targets for future functional analysis.

DNA copy number variations↗
DOE OSTI2025

Discovering nuclear models from symbolic machine learning

Numerous phenomenological nuclear models have been proposed to describe specific observables within different regions of the nuclear chart. However, developing a unified model that describes the complex behavior of all nuclei remains an open challenge. Here, we explore whether symbolic Machine Learning (ML) can rediscover traditional nuclear physics models or identify alternatives with improved simplicity, fidelity, and predictive power. To address this challenge, we developed a Multi-objective Iterated Symbolic Regression approach that handles symbolic regressions over multiple target observables, accounts for experimental uncertainties and is robust against high-dimensional problems. As a proof of principle, we applied this method to describe the nuclear binding energies and charge radii of light and medium mass nuclei. Our approach identified simple analytical relationships based on the number of protons and neutrons, providing interpretable models with precision comparable to state-of-the-art nuclear models. Additionally, we integrated this ML-discovered model with an existing complementary model to estimate the limits of nuclear stability. These results highlight the potential of symbolic ML to develop accurate nuclear models and guide our description of complex many-body problems.

Nuclear structure↗
NASA NTRS1984

The calculation of theoretical chromospheric models and the interpretation of solar spectra from rockets and spacecraft

Models and spectra of sunspots were studied, because they are important to energy balance and variability discussions. Sunspot observations in the ultraviolet region 140 to 168 nn was obtained by the NRL High Resolution Telescope and Spectrograph. Extensive photometric observations of sunspot umbrae and prenumbrae in 10 chanels covering the wavelength region 387 to 3800 nm were made. Cool star opacities and model atmospheres were computed. The Sun is the first testcase, both to check the opacity calculations against the observed solar spectrum, and to check the purely theoretical model calculation against the observed solar energy distribution. Line lists were finally completed for all the molecules that are important in computing statistical opacities for energy balance and for radiative rate calculations in the Sun (except perhaps for sunspots). Because many of these bands are incompletely analyzed in the laboratory, the energy levels are not well enough known to predict wavelengths accurately for spectrum synthesis and for detailed comparison with the observations.

Avrett, E. H.↗
NASA NTRS1974

The magnetic anomaly of the Ivreazone

A magnetic field survey was made in the Ivreazone in 1969/70. The results were: significant anomaly of the vertical intensity is found. It follows the basic main part of the Ivrea-Verbano zone and continues to the south. The width of the anomaly is about 10 km, the maximum measures about +800 gamma. The model interpretation shows that possibly the anomaly belongs to an amphibolitic body, which in connection with the Ivrea-body was found by deep seismic sounding. Therefore, the magnetic anomaly provides further evidence for the conception that the Ivrea-body has to be regarded as a chip of earthmantle material pushed upward by tectonic processes.

Vertical Intensity of Magnetic Field↗