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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
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NASA NTRS2012

A Discussion on Uncertainty Representation and Interpretation in Model-Based Prognostics Algorithms based on Kalman Filter Estimation Applied to Prognostics of Electronics Components

This article discusses several aspects of uncertainty representation and management for model-based prognostics methodologies based on our experience with Kalman Filters when applied to prognostics for electronics components. In particular, it explores the implications of modeling remaining useful life prediction as a stochastic process and how it relates to uncertainty representation, management, and the role of prognostics in decision-making. A distinction between the interpretations of estimated remaining useful life probability density function and the true remaining useful life probability density function is explained and a cautionary argument is provided against mixing interpretations for the two while considering prognostics in making critical decisions.

Celaya, Jose R.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Uncertainty Representation and Interpretation in Model-Based Prognostics Algorithms Based on Kalman Filter Estimation

This article discusses several aspects of uncertainty representation and management for model-based prognostics methodologies based on our experience with Kalman Filters when applied to prognostics for electronics components. In particular, it explores the implications of modeling remaining useful life prediction as a stochastic process, and how it relates to uncertainty representation, management and the role of prognostics in decision-making. A distinction between the interpretations of estimated remaining useful life probability density function is explained and a cautionary argument is provided against mixing interpretations for two while considering prognostics in making critical decisions.

Galvan, Jose Ramon↗
NASA NTRS1980

The effect of directional radiation models on the interpretation of earth radiation budget measurements

A parameter estimation technique is presented to estimate the radiative flux density distribution over the earth from a set of radiometer measurements at satellite altitude. The technique analyzes measurements from a wide field of view, horizon to horizon, nadir pointing sensor with a mathematical technique to derive the radiative flux density estimates at the top of the atmosphere for resolution elements smaller than the sensor field of view. A computer simulation of the data analysis technique is presented for both earth-emitted and reflected radiation. The errors resulting from the assumed directional radiation model, spatial model and random measurement error have little effect on the global mean radiation. Zonal estimates were found to be more sensitive to the spatial model than to the directional radiation model. Results from analyzing medium field of view measurements showed a much greater sensitivity to the directional radiation model even on a global scale.

Green, R. N.↗
NASA NTRS2021

A data–model approach to interpreting speleothem oxygen isotope records from monsoon regions

Reconstruction of past changes in monsoon climate from speleothem oxygen isotope (δ 18 O) records is complex because δ 18 O signals can be influenced by multiple factors including changes in precipitation, precipitation recycling over land, temperature at the moisture source, and changes in the moisture source region and transport pathway. Here, we analyse >150 speleothem records of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and AnaLysis (SISAL) database to produce composite regional trends in δ 18 O in monsoon regions; compositing minimises the influence of site-specific karst and cave processes that can influence individual site records. We compare speleothem δ 18 O observations with isotope-enabled climate model simulations to investigate the specific climatic factors causing these regional trends. We focus on differences in δ 18 O signals between the mid-Holocene, the peak of the Last Interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 5e) and the Last Glacial Maximum as well as on δ 18 O evolution through the Holocene. Differences in speleothem δ 18 O between the mid-Holocene and the Last Interglacial in the East Asian and Indian monsoons are small, despite the larger summer insolation values during the Last Interglacial. Last Glacial Maximum δ 18 O values are significantly less negative than interglacial values. Comparison with simulated glacial–interglacial δ 18 O shows that changes are principally driven by global shifts in temperature and regional precipitation. Holocene speleothem δ 18 O records show distinct and coherent regional trends. Trends are similar to summer insolation in India, China and southwestern South America, but they are different in the Indonesian–Australian region. Redundancy analysis shows that 37 % of Holocene variability can be accounted for by latitude and longitude, supporting the differentiation of records into individual monsoon regions. Regression analysis of simulated precipitation δ 18 O and climate variables show significant relationships between global Holocene monsoon δ 18 O trends and changes in precipitation, atmospheric circulation and (to a lesser extent) source area temperature, whereas precipitation recycling is non-significant. However, there are differences in regional-scale mechanisms: there are clear relationships between changes in precipitation and δ 18 O for India, southwestern South America and the Indonesian–Australian regions but not for the East Asian monsoon. Changes in atmospheric circulation contribute to δ 18 O trends in the East Asian, Indian and Indonesian–Australian monsoons, and a weak source area temperature effect is observed over southern and central America and Asia. Precipitation recycling is influential in southwestern South America and southern Africa. Overall, our analyses show that it is possible to differentiate the impacts of specific climatic mechanisms influencing precipitation δ 18 O and use this analysis to interpret changes in speleothem δ 18 O.

speleothem oxygen isotope records↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Application of a Bayesian Framework for Plasticity Model Selection

Interpretable Machine Learning (IML) has performed well when tasked with deriving constitutive material models. However, IML has been shown to prefer models that overfit noise in data, which tends to lead to bloat and a decrease in interpretability. Due to these issues, the ability of IML to reliably derive models that fit the data and are both interpretable and generalizable is limited. A method developed recently has shown promise to improve upon traditional IML by using a Bayesian fitness definition for the evolution of free-form models with non-deterministic parameters. This framework was developed for genetic-programming-based symbolic regression(GPSR) and involves model parameter estimation using Sequential Monte Carlo sampling (SMC).The method has demonstrated a reduction in bloat when dealing with noisy data in comparison to conventional GPSR. The results of this framework applied to stress-strain data for copper show models that more effectively predict the experimental data better than was previously shown with GPSR.

plasticity↗
NASA NTRS1974

The contamination of lunar highland rocks by KREEP - Interpretation by mixing models

A mixing model method was used to determine the component abundance in the Apollo 16 and 17 soils. This method uses the chemical composition of the soils for up to 30 elements and a weighted least-squares mixing model technique. Elements included in the calculations are: Si, Ti, Al, Ca, Fe, Mg, P, Cr, Mn, Na, K, Rb, Ba, U, Th, La, Ce, Sm, Eu, Sr, Yb, Y, Sc, V, Zr, Nb, Co, Ni, Li, Au, and Ir. The method was used to examine the possibility that some of the highland rocks such as VHA and low-K Fra Mauro basalt are mixtures. The results of the mixing model calculations show that it is possible that these rocks are mixtures of KREEP, troctolite, 'anorthosites', and a meteoritic component. The Rb-Sr systematics are consistent with such a model for the genesis of the highland rocks. KREEP has high relative concentrations of Rb, U, and radiogenic Sr and Pb and its model age of about 4.4 AE dominates the model age of all the 'contaminated' highland rocks.

Schonfeld, E.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Photopolarimetry of scattering surfaces and their interpretation by computer model

Wolff's computer model of a rough planetary surface was simplified and revised. Close adherence to the actual geometry of a pitted surface and the inclusion of a function for diffuse light resulted in a quantitative model comparable to observations by planetary satellites and asteroids. A function is also derived to describe diffuse light emitted from a particulate surface. The function is in terms of the indices of refraction of the surface material, particle size, and viewing angles. Computer-generated plots describe the observable and theoretical light components for the Moon, Mercury, Mars and a spectrum of asteroids. Other plots describe the effects of changing surface material properties. Mathematical results are generated to relate the parameters of the negative polarization branch to the properties of surface pitting. An explanation is offered for the polarization of the rings of Saturn, and the average diameter of ring objects is found to be 30 to 40 centimeters.

Wolff, M.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Earth radiation budget measurements from satellites and their interpretation for climate modeling and studies

The annual and seasonal averaged Earth atmosphere radiation budgets derived from the most complete set of satellite observations available are presented. The budgets were derived from a composite of 48 monthly mean radiation budget maps. Annually and seasonally averaged radiation budgets are presented as global averages and zonal averages. The geographic distribution of the various radiation budget quantities is described. The annual cycle of the radiation budget was analyzed and the annual variability of net flux was shown to be largely dominated by the regular semi and annual cycles forced by external Earth-Sun geometry variations. Radiative transfer calculations were compared to the observed budget quantities and surface budgets were additionally computed with particular emphasis on discrepancies that exist between the present computations and previous surface budget estimates.

Vonderhaar, T. H.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Martian great dust storms - Interpretive axially symmetric models

The Martian great dust storms are presently considered in light of the Schneider (1977) simplified theory of steady, nearly inviscid, thermally forced and axially symmetric atmospheric motions. A highly idealized calculation of atmospheric response to heating that is concentrated in a small latitude band is conducted, leading to the identification of qualitatively different local and global response regimes. Idealized model results indicate that subtropical latitudes are favored for the initiation of a dust-raising global dust storm. The steady, axially symmetric Martian response to solar forcing and modification to this response through an additional, latitudinally localized heat source are also discussed, and it is suggested that transition behavior similar to that of the more idealized model is to be expected in this case as well.

Schneider, E. K.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Nonlinear ARMA models for the D(st) index and their physical interpretation

Time series models successfully reproduce or predict geomagnetic activity indices from solar wind parameters. A method is presented that converts a type of nonlinear filter, the nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model to the nonlinear damped oscillator physical model. The oscillator parameters, the growth and decay, the oscillation frequencies and the coupling strength to the input are derived from the filter coefficients. Mathematical methods are derived to obtain unique and consistent filter coefficients while keeping the prediction error low. These methods are applied to an oscillator model for the Dst geomagnetic index driven by the solar wind input. A data set is examined in two ways: the model parameters are calculated as averages over short time intervals, and a nonlinear ARMA model is calculated and the model parameters are derived as a function of the phase space.

Vassiliadis, D.↗
NASA NTRS1986

ERBE bidirectional model consistency check

A short analysis is presented of Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) errors inherent in the directional models used for data interpretation. The models were all developed on the basis of experience with the Nimbus-7 ERB experiment, which had a spatial resolution one-third that of ERBE instrumentation. A pseudo-directional model is defined to simulate the ERBE scanner data, using the assumptions that the average radiant exitance for any particular scene is independent of the viewing geometry, geographic location and time the data is collected. The directionality of the view angle and solar zenith angle is accounted for by a method of bins.

Baldwin, D. G.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Numerical Simulation of a Chemically Reacting Sorbent Bed for LSS Applications

A detailed numerical model of a chemisorption bed has been developed. The model is based on the constant pressure mass transport equation for gaseous flow through a packed bed, and the equation for diffusion and reaction within a spherical particle. Because there is a wealth of data from the NASA and the Navy bodies of literature, the LiOH-H2O-CO2 system is chosen for application of the model and interpretation of results. Prior models of this system from the life support literature are limited. The current model incorporates many of the features of elaborate models developed for investigation of industrial systems or energy applications (e.g., coal, desulphurization): it distinguishes bulk convection and bed dispersion; mass transport to the particle surface, transport within the particle, and reaction. It uses the nonsteady (not pseudo-steady state) form of the equations. The chemistry is modeled as a multi-step, reversible reaction with evolving solid structure. The resulting system of equations is large. The ODEPACK family of solvers is used to integrate the system. Reaction coefficients are determined by experiment. Typical results of the model are illustrated with mission input parameters. Using the model, an explanation is offered for 1) the varied performance results found after pre-breathing (or after simulated pre-breathe conditions), 2) interrupted use and 3) low temperature use. In addition, options for a reusable canister are explored. The computational resource implications of adding energy equations are discussed briefly, as are applicability to other relevant space and undersea systems.

Luna, Bernadette↗