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DOE OSTI2020

Pathways for methane emissions and oxidation that influence the net carbon balance of a subtropical cypress swamp

We evaluated the major pathways for methane emissions from wetlands to the atmosphere at four wetland sites in the Big Cypress National Preserve in southwest Florida. Methane oxidation was estimated based on the d13C-CH4 of surface water, porewater, and bubbles to evaluate mechanisms that limit surface water emissions. Spatially-scaled methane fluxes were then compared to organic carbon burial rates. The pathway with the lowest methane flux rate was diffusion from surface waters (3.50 ± 0.22 mmol m-2 d-1). Microbial activity in the surface water environment and/or shallow oxic sediment layer oxidized 26 ± 3% of the methane delivered from anerobic sediments to the surface waters. The highest rates of diffusion were observed at the site with the lowest extent of oxidation. Ebullition flux rates were 2.2 times greater than diffusion and more variable (7.79 ± 1.37 mmol m-2 d-1). Methane fluxes from non-inundated soils were 1.6 times greater (18.4 ± 5.14 mmol m-2 d-1) than combined surface water fluxes. Methane flux rates from cypress knees (emergent cypress tree root structures) were 3.7 and 2.3 times higher (42.0 ± 6.33 mmol m-2 d-1) than from surface water and soils, respectively. Cypress knee flux rates were highest at the wetland site with the highest porewater methane partial pressure, suggesting that the emergent root structures allow methane produced in anaerobic sediment layers to bypass oxidation in aerobic surface waters or shallow sediments. Scaled across the four wetlands, emissions from surface water diffusion, ebullition, non-inundated soils, and knees contributed to 14 ± 2%, 25 ± 6%, 34 ± 10%, and 26 ± 5% of total methane emissions, respectively. When considering only the three wetlands with cypress knees present, knee emissions contributed to 39 ± 5% of the total scaled methane emissions. Finally, the molar ratio of CH4 emissions to OC burial ranged from 0.03 to 0.14 in the wetland centers indicating that all four wetland sites are net sources of atmospheric warming potential on 20-100 yr timescales, but net sinks over longer time scales (500 yr) with the exception of one wetland site that was a net source even over 500 yr time scales.

Ward, Nicholas D.↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Model of Ice Wedge Polygon Drainage in Changing Arctic Terrain

As ice wedge degradation and the inundation of polygonal troughs become increasingly common processes across the Arctic, lateral export of water from polygonal soils may represent an important mechanism for the mobilization of dissolved organic carbon and other solutes. However, drainage from ice wedge polygons is poorly understood. We constructed a model which uses cross-sectional flow nets to define flow paths of meltwater through the active layer of an inundated low-centered polygon towards the trough. The model includes the effects of evaporation and simulates the depletion of ponded water in the polygon center during the thaw season. In most simulations, we discovered a strong hydrodynamic edge effect: only a small fraction of the polygon volume near the rim area is flushed by the drainage at relatively high velocities, suggesting that nearly all advective transport of solutes, heat, and soil particles is confined to this zone. Estimates of characteristic drainage times from the polygon center are consistent with published field observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Drivers of Methane Hydrobiogeochemistry in a Tidal River Floodplain System

The influence of coastal ecosystems on global greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets and their response to increasing inundation and salinization remains poorly constrained. In this study, we have integrated an uncertainty quantification (UQ) and ensemble machine learning (ML) framework to identify and rank the most influential processes, properties, and conditions controlling methane behavior in a freshwater floodplain responding to recently restored seawater inundation. Our unique multivariate, multiyear, and multi-site dataset comprises tidal creek and floodplain porewater observations encompassing water level, salinity, pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), total dissolved nitrogen (TDN), partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO 2 ), nitrous oxide (pN 2 O), methane (pCH 4 ), and the stable isotopic composition of methane (δ 13 CH 4 ). Additionally, we incorporated topographical data, soil porosity, hydraulic conductivity, and water retention parameters for UQ analysis using a previously developed 3D variably saturated flow and transport floodplain model for a physical mechanistic understanding of factors influencing groundwater levels and salinity and, therefore, CH 4 . Principal component analysis revealed that groundwater level and salinity are the most significant predictors of overall biogeochemical variability. The ensemble ML models and UQ analyses identified DO, water level, salinity, and temperature as the most influential factors for porewater methane levels and indicated that approximately 80% of the total variability in hourly water levels and around 60% of the total variability in hourly salinity can be explained by permeability, creek water level, and two van Genuchten water retention function parameters: the air-entry suction parameter α and the pore size distribution parameter m. These findings provide insights on the physicochemical factors in methane behavior in coastal ecosystems and their representation in local- to global-scale Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling the mechanisms of coastal vegetation dynamics and ecosystem responses to changing water levels

Coastal forests are increasingly experiencing mortality due to inundation by fresh- and seawater, leading to their replacement by marshes. These shifts alter vegetation composition, biogeochemical cycling, carbon storage, and hydrology. Using a hydraulically enabled ecosystem demography model (FATES-Hydro), we conducted numerical experiments to investigate the mechanisms behind inundation-driven forest loss and the ecosystem-scale consequences of forest-to-marsh transitions. We compared mortality processes and their effects across broadleaf and conifer trees at two coastal sites – Lake Erie (freshwater) and Chesapeake Bay (saline). Our simulations show that hydraulic failure, driven by root loss under prolonged flooding, is the primary mortality mechanism across both tree types and sites. Forest replacement by marsh reduced ecosystem-scale leaf area index (LAI), gross primary production (GPP), transpiration, and deep soil water uptake in conifer forests, while broadleaf forests experienced smaller changes due to lower initial LAI and greater marsh compensation. Marsh invasion occurred following canopy thinning driven by tree mortality. These findings suggest that, under similar root loss, hydraulic failure dominates coastal tree mortality regardless of species or water type, with denser forests experiencing stronger ecosystem impacts. Our study identifies key mortality mechanisms and offers testable hypotheses for future empirical studies on coastal vegetation change.

Ding, Junyan [Occidental College, Los Angeles, CA ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of experimental and computational methods for discharge measurements from tidal wetlands

This short communication describes the use and comparison of three methods used to calculate the flow discharge from a tidal wetland stream. The techniques presented are a) bottom-mounted ADCP deployments, b) vessel-mounted ADCP transects, and c) a volume inundation spatial model that relies on a high-resolution LiDAR dataset and time-series of water surface elevation data. The relative agreement between these three methods is used to build confidence in the application of these techniques to the challenge of deducing flow discharge from tidal wetlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Attaining freshwater and estuarine-water soil saturation in an ecosystem-scale coastal flooding experiment

Abstract Coastal upland forests are facing widespread mortality as sea-level rise accelerates and precipitation and storm regimes change. The loss of coastal forests has significant implications for the coastal carbon cycle; yet, predicting mortality likelihood is difficult due to our limited understanding of disturbance impacts on coastal forests. The manipulative, ecosystem-scale Terrestrial Ecosystem Manipulation to Probe the Effects of Storm Treatments (TEMPEST) experiment addresses the potential for freshwater and estuarine-water disturbance events to alter tree function, species composition, and ecosystem processes in a deciduous coastal forest in MD, USA. The experiment uses a large-unit (2000 m 2 ), un-replicated experimental design, with three 50 m × 40 m plots serving as control, freshwater, and estuarine-water treatments. Transient saturation (5 h) of the entire soil rooting zone (0–30 cm) across a 2000 m 2 coastal forest was attained by delivering 300 m 3 of water through a spatially distributed irrigation network at a rate just above the soil infiltration rate. Our water delivery approach also elevated the water table (typically ~ 2 m belowground) and achieved extensive, low-level inundation (~ 8 cm standing water). A TEMPEST simulation approximated a 15-cm rainfall event and based on historic records, was of comparable intensity to a 10-year storm for the area. This characterization was supported by showing that Hurricane Ida’s (~ 5 cm rainfall) hydrologic impacts were shorter (40% lower duration) and less expansive (80% less coverage) than those generated through experimental manipulation. Future work will apply TEMPEST treatments to evaluate coastal forest resilience to changing hydrologic disturbance regimes and identify conditions that initiate ecosystem state transitions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Advancing process-based flood frequency analysis for assessing flood hazard and population flood exposure

Recent studies have showcased the use of process-based hydrological models with Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) techniques to conduct Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA). This framework, referred hereby FFA-SST, has proved to be a robust strategy to estimate peak flows of specific annual exceedance probability (e.g., 100-year peak flow) that can reflect natural and anthropogenic disturbances, including changes in land use and meteorological patterns. With the objective of advancing the FFA-SST framework, this study presents for the first time the use of an Integrated Surface-Subsurface Hydrological Model (ISSHM) to conduct FFA-SST by extending the analysis from peak flow responses to flood extent, enabling a unique view and analysis of flood hazard and population flood exposure at the basin scale. As a proof-of-concept, we used the ISSHM, Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (Amanzi-ATS) model, and the SST model, RainyDay, to conduct FFA-SST by simulating the flood response to 5,000 annual synthetic storm events in a 2,227 $km^2$ Southeast Texas watershed. We demonstrate that ATS, without site-specific calibration, provides a robust process-based representation of peak flows, flood extent, streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture content, and water storage changes. Our results and analyses, covering frequency curves up to a 500-year return period for peak flows, basin inundation fractions, and the number of people exposed to flooding, offer a unique perspective to analyze flood impacts across spatial scales. Overall, this study provides critical insights for flood risk management by extending the FFA-SST framework to include both flood hazard and population flood exposure analyses at the basin scale. Such an approach will empower stakeholders and disaster emergency agencies with a more comprehensive understanding of flood impacts across the entire basin domain, facilitating informed decision-making for flood risk assessment and management.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

How does humidity data impact land surface modeling of hydrothermal regimes at a permafrost site in Utqia$\mathrm{\dot{g}}$vik, Alaska?

Humidity is a basic and crucial meteorological indicator commonly measured in several forms, including specific humidity, relative humidity, and absolute humidity. These different forms can be inter-derived based on the saturation vapor pressure (SVP). In past decades, dozens of formulae have been developed to calculate the SVP with respect to, and in equilibrium with, liquid water and solid ice surfaces, but many prior studies use a single function for all temperature ranges, without considering the distinction between over the liquid water and ice surfaces. These different approaches can result in humidity estimates that may impact our understanding of surface-subsurface thermal-hydrological dynamics in cold regions. In this study, we compared the relative humidity (RH) downloaded and calculated from four data sources in Alaska based on five commonly used SVP formulas. These RHs, along with other meteorological indicators, were then used to drive physics-rich land surface models at a permafrost-affected site. Here, we found that higher values of RH (up to 40%) were obtained if the SVP was calculated with the over-ice formulation when air temperatures were below freezing, which could lead to a 30% maximum difference in snow depths. The choice of whether to separately calculate the SVP over an ice surface in winter also produced a significant range (up to 0.2 m) in simulated annual maximum thaw depths. The sensitivity of seasonal thaw depth to the formulation of SVP increases with the rainfall rate and the height of above-ground ponded water, while it diminishes with warmer air temperatures. These results show that RH variations based on the calculation of SVP with or without over-ice calculation meaningfully impact physically-based predictions of snow depth, sublimation, soil temperature, and active layer thickness. Under particular conditions, when severe flooding (inundation) and cool air temperatures are present, care should be taken to evaluate how humidity data is estimated for land surface and earth system modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data and scripts associated with “Moisture content modulates DOM thermodynamic regulation of oxygen consumption in drying streambed sediments”

This data package is associated with the publication “Moisture content modulates DOM thermodynamic regulation of oxygen consumption in drying streambed sediments” published in Scientific Reports (Garayburu-Caruso et al., 2026). The package contains processed data products and scripts used to quantify how drying and re-inundation of riverbed sediments influence dissolved organic matter (DOM) thermodynamic properties and their relationship with sediment oxygen (O₂) consumption across 33 stream sites in the contiguous United States. The data package contains DOM thermodynamic metrics (e.g., Gibbs free energy of carbon oxidation and thermodynamic efficiency), and O₂ consumption along with watershed-scale climate and land-cover metrics used as explanatory variables in the analyses. Underlying unprocessed and processed ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry data, oxygen consumption rates from laboratory moisture-manipulation experiments, within-sample environmental properties, sediment moisture content and contextual field measurements are archived separately at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/2428003 (Laan et al., 2024) and https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1923689 (Forbes et al.,2023). A preliminary version of this data package was published in February 2026 at the time of manuscript submission. It was updated in June 2026, at the time of manuscript acceptance, to include the finalized data and additional metadata (readme, data dictionary, and file level metadata). For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. In addition to a readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. At the top level, the data package is organized into five main folders: (1) Data, (2)Figures, (3) Map, (4) GAM_Reulsts, and (5) src. The Data folder contains analysis-ready tabular files with oxygen consumption rates, DOM thermodynamic properties by site and treatment, site-level environmental variables, watershed-scale metrics, and other derived variables referenced in the manuscript. The Figures folder contains static image files associated with the main text and supplemental figures, while the Map folder includes spatial data and map-layer files used to create the sampling-location map. The GAM results folder contains the results for each of the general additive model (GAM).The src folder contains R scripts used to perform data processing, statistical analyses (including clustering, generalized additive models, and threshold analysis), and figure generation. This data package is associated with a GitHub repository found at https://github.com/WHONDRS-Hub/ECA_DOM_Thermodynamics.

Dissolved organic matter↗

DOE OSTI2026

Surface water nitrogen and sediment potential nitrate reduction rates, nutrient stocks, and stable isotopes from nine wetlands at the Tanglewood Biological Station, Alabama

This dataset supports a broader study investigating wetland hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to inundation disturbances. Bimonthly surface water and sediment sampling events were conducted at nine wetland sites situated within the Tanglewood Biological Station in Alabama from April 2023 to February 2024. The contents included in the data package include surface water nitrogen (nitrogen oxides and ammonium) and sediment potential nitrate reduction rates (measured as potential denitrification and dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium processing), nutrient stocks (total carbon, total nitrogen, and organic matter), and stable isotopes (carbon and nitrogen). Water level data related to each wetland location can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/view/doi:10.15485/2530253 (Kirker et al., 2024) and related water geochemistry data can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/3001967 (Forbes et al., 2025). In addition to a readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. This dataset is comprised of (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) field metadata and international generic sample numbers (IGSNs); (4) readme; (5) the field protocol; and (6) a subfolder with sample data. The sample data subfolder contains (1) sediment potential denitrification rate, (2) sediment potential dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium (DNRA) rate, (3) sediment total carbon and nitrogen content, (4) sediment stable isotopes (delta nitrogen-15 and delta carbon-13), (5) sediment percent organic matter, (6) surface water nitrous oxides, (7) surface water ammonium, and (8) methods codes. All files are .csv or .pdf.

Ammonium↗

DOE OSTI2026

Soil nitrogen mineralization rates, nutrient stocks, stable isotopes, and water volumetric measurements across terrestrial-aquatic interfaces from three wetlands at the Tanglewood Biological Station, Alabama

This dataset supports a broader study investigating wetland hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to inundation events. Soil samples were collected across four sampling events along terrestrial-aquatic gradients at three wetland sites located within the Tanglewood Biological Station in Alabama from April 2024 to June 2025. The contents in this data package include soil in-situ nitrogen mineralization rates (measurements of net nitrification, net ammonification, and net mineralization), nutrient stocks (total carbon, total nitrogen, and organic matter), stable isotopes (carbon and nitrogen), and water volumetric measurements (water-filled pore space). Water level data related to each wetland location can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/view/doi:10.15485/2530253 (Kirker et al., 2024), related water geochemistry data can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/3001967 (Forbes et al., 2025), and related surface water sediment chemistry data can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/3377325 (Molina Serpas et al., 2026). In addition to this readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. This dataset is comprised of (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) field metadata and international generic sample numbers (IGSNs); (4) readme; (5) the field protocol; and (6) a subfolder with sample data. The sample data subfolder contains (1) net nitrification rate, (2) net ammonification rate, (3) areal net mineralization rate, (4) percent organic matter, (5) water-filled pore space, (6) total carbon content, (7) total nitrogen content, (8) stable carbon isotope (delta carbon-13), and (9) stable nitrogen isotope (delta nitrogen-15), and (10) methods codes. All files are .csv or .pdf.

13-C↗

DOE OSTI2023

Variability in soil redox response to seasonal flooding in a vernal pond

Vernal ponds are ephemeral landscape features that experience intermittent flooding and drying, leading to variable saturation in underlying soils. Redox potential (E h ) is an important indicator of biogeochemical processes that changes in response to these hydrological shifts; however, high-resolution measurements of E h in variably inundated environments remain sparse. In this study, the responses of soil E h to ponding, drying, and rewetting of a vernal pond were investigated over a 5-month period from late spring through early autumn. Soil E h was measured at 10-min frequencies and at multiple soil depths (2–48 cm below the soil surface) in shallow and deep sections within the seasonally ponded lowland and in unsaturated soils of the surrounding upland. Over the study period, average E h in surface soils (0–8 cm) was oxidizing in the upland (753 ± 79 mV) but relatively reducing in the shallow lowland (369 ± 49 mV) and deep lowland (198 ± 37 mV). Reducing conditions (E h <300 mV) in surface soils prevailed for up to 6 days in the shallow lowland and up to 24 days in the deep lowland after surface water dried out. Intermittent reflooding resulted in multiple shifts between reducing and oxidizing conditions in the shallow lowland while the deep lowland remained reducing following reflooding. Soil E h in the uplands was consistently oxidizing over the study period with transient increases in response to rain events. Reducing conditions in the lowland resulted in greater Fe-oxide dissolution and release of dissolved Fe and P into porewater than in the surrounding uplands. We determined that change in water depth alone was not a good indicator of soil E h , and additional factors such as soil saturation and clay composition should be considered when predicting how E h responds to surface flooding and drying. These findings highlight the spatial and temporal variability of E h within ponds and have implications for how soil processes and ecosystem function are impacted by shifts in hydrology at terrestrial-aquatic interfaces.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Tidal frequencies and quasiperiodic subsurface water level variations dominate redox dynamics in a salt marsh system

Salt marshes are hotspots of nutrient processing en route to sensitive coastal environments. Whilst our understanding of these systems has improved over the years, we still have limited knowledge of the spatiotemporal variability of critical biogeochemical drivers within salt marshes. Sea-level rise will continue to force change on salt marsh functioning, highlighting the urgency of filling this knowledge gap. Our study was conducted in a central California estuary experiencing extensive marsh drowning and relative sea-level rise, making it a model system for such an investigation. Here we instrumented three marsh positions subjected to different degrees of tidal inundation (6.7%, 8.9%, and 11.2% of the time for the upper, middle, and lower marsh positions, respectively), providing locations with varied biogeochemical characteristics and hydrological interactions at the site. We continuously monitored redox potential (Eh) at depths of 0.1, 0.3, and 0.5 m, subsurface water levels (WL), and temperature at 0.7 m depth at each marsh position. To understand how drivers of subsurface biogeochemical processes fluctuate across tidal cycles, we used wavelet analyses to explain the interactions between Eh and WL. We found that tidal forcing significantly affects key drivers of biogeochemical processes by imparting controls on Eh variability, likely driving subsurface hydro-biogeochemistry of the salt marsh. Wavelet coherence showed that the Eh-WL relationship is nonlinear, and their lead–lag relationship is variable. We found that precipitation events perturb Eh at depth over timescales of hours, even though WL shows relatively minimal change during events. Furthermore, this work highlights the importance of high frequency in situ measurements, such as Eh, to help explain factors that govern subsurface biogeochemistry and hydrological processes in salt marshes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Seasonal and tidal variations in hydrologic inputs drive salt marsh porewater nitrate dynamics

Salt marshes remove terrestrially derived nutrients en route to coasts. While these systems play a critical role in improving water quality, we still have a limited understanding of the spatiotemporal variability of biogeochemically reactive solutes and processes within salt marshes. We implemented a high-frequency sampling system to monitor sub-hourly nitrate (NO$^{–}_{3}$) concentrations in salt marsh porewater at Elkhorn Slough in central California, USA. We instrumented three marsh positions along an elevation gradient subjected to different amounts of tidal inundation, which we predicted would lead to varied biogeochemical characteristics and hydrological interactions. At each marsh position, we continuously monitored porewater NO$^{–}_{3}$ concentrations at depths of 10, 30, and 50 cm and porewater levels measured at 70 cm depth over seven deployments of ~10 days each that spanned seasonal wet/dry periods common to Mediterranean climates. We quantified tidal event hysteresis between NO$^{–}_{3}$ and water level to understand how NO$^{–}_{3}$ concentrations and sources fluctuate across tidal cycles. In dry periods, the NO$^{–}_{3}$-porewater level relationship indicated that the NO$^{–}_{3}$ source was likely estuarine surface water that flooded the transect during high tides and the salt marsh was a NO$^{–}_{3}$ sink. In wet periods, the NO$^{–}_{3}$-porewater level relationship suggested the salt marsh was a source of NO$^{–}_{3}$. Finally, these findings suggest that tidal and seasonal hydrologic fluxes together control NO$^{–}_{3}$ porewater dynamics and export and influence ecological processes in coastal environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Temporal Patterns in Soil Redox Potential Vary Across a Freshwater Coastal Delta

Widespread and persistent flooding is submerging coastal ecosystems, particularly along the Louisiana Gulf coast, where flooding results from the compounding effects of ground subsidence and rising sea level. Restoration projects aim to mitigate land loss by diverting sediment loads from rivers into degraded areas to increase ground elevation. To predict how coastal ecosystems will change over time in response to projected changes in relative sea level and restoration, it is necessary to understand how subsurface biogeochemical processes respond to dynamic hydrologic forcings. Here, this study evaluates how environmental parameters that integrate biogeochemical processes vary with water table fluctuations in the freshwater Wax Lake Delta (WLD) in Louisiana, USA, where water diversions have formed one of the only active deltas along the coast. High‐frequency observations of water level, soil redox potential, specific conductance and pH were made for 1 year along elevation transects located on the older, proximal and younger, distal ends of a deltaic island. Redox responded rapidly to changing water tables, with fluctuations occurring primarily in shallow soils (< 20 cm) and at higher elevations. Deeper soils and those at lower elevation remained inundated and reduced. Semi‐diurnal tidal fluctuations were pronounced in younger, distal soils, presumably due to rapid groundwater exchange with the river channel. Tidal signals were muted in older soils that instead exhibited seasonal variability associated with river discharge and evapotranspiration. Although much of the delta sediments are persistently reducing and anoxic, redox fluctuations in the natural levees that border the deltaic islands likely drive high rates of biogeochemical activity. Evaluating how hydrology drives the frequency and duration of redox fluctuations provides a basis for understanding how biogeochemical processes might vary with complex hydrological interactions in coastal systems.

Herndon, Elizabeth [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗

DOE OSTI2026

Capturing soil moisture and salinity changes in flooded coastal forests using electrical resistivity and induced polarization

Geophysical methods provide high-resolution spatial measurements of physical quantities sensitive to changes in soil moisture and salinity and can be used to monitor soil hydrological responses to flooding. However, extracting quantitative hydrological information from geophysical data remains challenging. In this study, we extended existing petrophysical models to estimate soil moisture and salinity from electrical measurements to address this challenge. We manipulated two hydrologically isolated 2000 m 2 experimental plots by simultaneously inundating them with 265 m 3 of either freshwater or estuarine water. Repeated electrical resistivity and induced polarization measurements were used to image the water and solute infiltration along two transects that are 100 and 42 m in length. Petrophysical models derived from laboratory multi-salinity electrical measurements were used to estimate changes in soil moisture and fluid salinity from field measurements of real and imaginary conductivity during the ecosystem-scale flooding experiment. The real conductivity increased by ∼100% in the freshwater plot and ∼570% in the saltwater plot. The change in imaginary conductivity in the freshwater plot was <1 mS/m, whereas that of the estuarine water plot was ∼5 mS/m. Real conductivity shows dependence on soil moisture content with a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) > 0.7, while the imaginary conductivity shows a dependence on soil salinity with R 2 > 0.6. The results validate the use of electrical resistivity for estimating changes in soil moisture content in response to flooding. Combining electrical resistivity imaging with induced polarization measurements provides the possibility to account for changes in pore fluid conductivity.

Adebayo, Moses B. [Univ. of Toledo, OH (United Sta↗

DOE OSTI2024

Anticipating how rain-on-snow events will change through the 21st century: lessons from the 1997 new year’s flood event

The California-Nevada 1997 New Year’s flood was an atmospheric river (AR)-driven rain-on-snow (RoS) event and remains the costliest in their history. The joint occurrence of saturated soils, rainfall, and snowmelt generated inundation throughout northern California-Nevada. Although AR RoS events are projected to occur more frequently with climate change, the warming sensitivity of their flood drivers across scales remains understudied. We leverage the regionally refined mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM-E3SM) to recreate the 1997 New Year’s flood with horizontal grid spacings of 3.5 km across California, with forecast lead times of up to 4 days, and across six warming levels ranging from pre-industrial conditions to +3.5° C. We describe the sensitivity of the flood drivers to warming including AR duration and intensity, precipitation phase, intensity and efficiency, snowpack mass and energy changes, and runoff efficiency. Our findings indicate current levels of climate change negligibly influence the flood drivers. At warming levels ≥ 1.7° C, AR hazard potential increases, snowpack nonlinearly decreases, antecedent soil moisture decreases (except where the snowline retreats), and runoff decreases (except in the southern Sierra Nevada where antecedent snowpack persists). Storm total precipitation increases, but at rates below warming-induced increases in saturation-specific humidity. Warming intensifies short-duration, high-intensity rainfall, particularly where snowfall-to-rainfall transitions occur. This study highlights the nonlinear tradeoffs in 21st-century RoS flood hazards with warming and provides water management and infrastructure investment adaptation considerations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Simulation of compound flooding in Japan using a nationwide model

For this study, a high-resolution, summit-to-sea unstructured-grid model was used to simulate two compound flooding events in different geomorphic settings in Japan: the July 2012 flood in Kumamoto city and July 2018 flood in Okayama City, both caused by a torrential rainfall during seasonal Meiyu front but otherwise exhibiting quite different compound flood characteristics. The model shows good performance in simulating flooding extent; e.g., the Hit Rate for the inundation event in 2018 exceeds 0.9. Sensitivity tests were conducted to determine the roles/significance of levee structures along major rivers in coastal regions. Our results indicate that riverine and oceanic factors as well as levees significantly contribute to the observed flooding extents, and we are able to quantify the contributions from each factor at different locations. The model has been implemented operationally as the first nationwide 3-day compound flooding forecast system for Japan.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗