Enabling and interpreting hyper-differential sensitivity analysis for Bayesian inverse problems.
Abstract not provided.
Hart, Joseph Lee↗
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A Comparison of Solar p-Mode Parameters from MDI and Gong: Mode Frequencies and Structure Inversions
Helioseismic analysis of solar global oscillations allows investigation of the internal structure of the Sun. One important test of the reliability of the inferences from helioseismology is that the results from independent sets of contemporaneous data are consistent with one another. Here we compare mode frequencies from the Global Oscillation Network Group and Michelson Doppler Imager on board SOHO and resulting inversion results on the Sun's internal structure. The average relative differences between the data sets are typically less than 1 x 10(exp -5) substantially smaller than the formal errors in the differences; however, in some cases the frequency differences show a systematic behavior that might nonetheless influence the inversion results. We find that the differences in frequencies are not a result of instrumental effects but are almost entirely related to the data pipeline software. Inversion of the frequencies shows that their differences do not result in any significant effects on the resulting inferences on solar structure. We have also experimented with fitting asymmetric profiles to the oscillation power spectra and find that, compared with the symmetric fits, this causes no significant change in the inversion results.
Basu, S.↗
Probabilistic Fatigue Damage Prognosis Using a Surrogate Model Trained Via 3D Finite Element Analysis
Utilizing inverse uncertainty quantification techniques, structural health monitoring can be integrated with damage progression models to form probabilistic predictions of a structure's remaining useful life. However, damage evolution in realistic structures is physically complex. Accurately representing this behavior requires high-fidelity models which are typically computationally prohibitive. In the present work, a high-fidelity finite element model is represented by a surrogate model, reducing computation times. The new approach is used with damage diagnosis data to form a probabilistic prediction of remaining useful life for a test specimen under mixed-mode conditions.
Leser, Patrick E.↗
Error analysis applied to several inversion techniques used for the retrieval of middle atmospheric constituents from limb-scanning MM-wave spectroscopic measurements
The formal retrieval error analysis of Rodgers (1990) allows the quantitative determination of such retrieval properties as measurement error sensitivity, resolution, and inversion bias. This technique was applied to five numerical inversion techniques and two nonlinear iterative techniques used for the retrieval of middle atmospheric constituent concentrations from limb-scanning millimeter-wave spectroscopic measurements. It is found that the iterative methods have better vertical resolution, but are slightly more sensitive to measurement error than constrained matrix methods. The iterative methods converge to the exact solution, whereas two of the matrix methods under consideration have an explicit constraint, the sensitivity of the solution to the a priori profile. Tradeoffs of these retrieval characteristics are presented.
Puliafito, E.↗
Analysis of airfoil leading edge separation bubbles
A local inviscid-viscous interaction technique was developed for the analysis of low speed airfoil leading edge transitional separation bubbles. In this analysis an inverse boundary layer finite difference analysis is solved iteratively with a Cauchy integral representation of the inviscid flow which is assumed to be a linear perturbation to a known global viscous airfoil analysis. Favorable comparisons with data indicate the overall validity of the present localized interaction approach. In addition numerical tests were performed to test the sensitivity of the computed results to the mesh size, limits on the Cauchy integral, and the location of the transition region.
Carter, J. E.↗
Analysis of airfoil leading-edge separation bubbles
A local inviscid-viscous interaction technique was developed for the analysis of low speed airfoil leading edge transitional separation bubbles. In this analysis an inverse boundary layer finite difference analysis is solved iteratively with a Cauchy integral representation of the inviscid flow which is assumed to be a linear perturbation to a known global viscous airfoil analysis. Favorable comparisons with data indicate the overall validity of the present localized interaction approach. In addition numerical tests were performed to test the sensitivity of the computed results to the mesh size, limits on the Cauchy integral, and the location of the transition region.
Vatsa, V. N.↗
Analysis of a Computational Framework for Bayesian Inverse Problems: Ensemble Kalman Updates and MAP Estimators under Mesh Refinement
This paper analyzes a popular computational framework to solve infinite-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems, discretizing the prior and the forward model in a finite-dimensional weighted inner product space. We demonstrate the benefit of working on a weighted space by establishing operator-norm bounds for finite element and graph-based discretizations of Matérn-type priors and deconvolution forward models. For linear-Gaussian inverse problems, we develop a general theory to characterize the error in the approximation to the posterior. We also embed the computational framework into ensemble Kalman methods and MAP estimators for nonlinear inverse problems. Furthermore, our operator-norm bounds for prior discretizations guarantee the scalability and accuracy of these algorithms under mesh refinement.
Bayesian inverse problem↗
The double universal joint wrist on a manipulator: Solution of inverse position kinematics and singularity analysis
This paper presents three methods to solve the inverse position kinematics position problem of the double universal joint attached to a manipulator: (1) an analytical solution for two specific cases; (2) an approximate closed form solution based on ignoring the wrist offset; and (3) an iterative method which repeats closed form position and orientation calculations until the solution is achieved. Several manipulators are used to demonstrate the solution methods: cartesian, cylindrical, spherical, and an anthropomorphic articulated arm, based on the Flight Telerobotic Servicer (FTS) arm. A singularity analysis is presented for the double universal joint wrist attached to the above manipulator arms. While the double universal joint wrist standing alone is singularity-free in orientation, the singularity analysis indicates the presence of coupled position/orientation singularities of the spherical and articulated manipulators with the wrist. The cartesian and cylindrical manipulators with the double universal joint wrist were found to be singularity-free. The methods of this paper can be implemented in a real-time controller for manipulators with the double universal joint wrist. Such mechanically dextrous systems could be used in telerobotic and industrial applications, but further work is required to avoid the singularities.
Williams, Robert L., III↗
Spherical earth gravity and magnetic anomaly analysis by equivalent point source inversion
To facilitate geologic interpretation of satellite elevation potential field data, analysis techniques are developed and verified in the spherical domain that are commensurate with conventional flat earth methods of potential field interpretation. A powerful approach to the spherical earth problem relates potential field anomalies to a distribution of equivalent point sources by least squares matrix inversion. Linear transformations of the equivalent source field lead to corresponding geoidal anomalies, pseudo-anomalies, vector anomaly components, spatial derivatives, continuations, and differential magnetic pole reductions. A number of examples using 1 deg-averaged surface free-air gravity anomalies of POGO satellite magnetometer data for the United States, Mexico, and Central America illustrate the capabilities of the method.
Von Frese, R. R. B.↗
Analysis of RAE-1 inversion
The RAE-1 spacecraft inversion performed October 31, 1972 is described based upon the in-orbit dynamical data in conjunction with results obtained from previously developed computer simulation models. The computer simulations used are predictive of the satellite dynamics, including boom flexing, and are applicable during boom deployment and retraction, inter-phase coast periods, and post-deployment operations. Attitude data, as well as boom tip data, were analyzed in order to obtain a detailed description of the dynamical behavior of the spacecraft during and after the inversion. Runs were made using the computer model and the results were analyzed and compared with the real time data. Close agreement between the actual recorded spacecraft attitude and the computer simulation results was obtained.
Hedland, D. A.↗
Satellite Imagery Analysis for Nighttime Temperature Inversion Clouds
Clouds play important roles in the climate system. Their optical and microphysical properties, which largely determine their radiative property, need to be investigated. Among several measurement means, satellite remote sensing seems to be the most promising. Since most of the cloud algorithms proposed so far are daytime use which utilizes solar radiation, Minnis et al. (1998) developed a nighttime use one using 3.7-, 11 - and 12-microns channels. Their algorithm, however, has a drawback that is not able to treat temperature inversion cases. We update their algorithm, incorporating new parameterization by Arduini et al. (1999) which is valid for temperature inversion cases. This updated algorithm has been applied to GOES satellite data and reasonable retrieval results were obtained.
Kawamoto, K.↗
Variance Decomposition of MEDLI2 Reconstructed Heating Using Neural Networks
The Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI2) sensor suite collected data during entry of the Mars 2020 Perseverance rover into Mars’ atmosphere. An inverse estimation of the backshell and heatshield surface aeroheating was performed, using the data from the MEDLI2 Instrumented Sensor Plugs, a network of thermocouples embedded within the thermal protection system across the aeroshell. Monte Carlo analysis was conducted to assess the sensitivity of the surface heat rate, temperature, and heat load to uncertainties in thermocouple depth and material properties. In this paper, a variance decomposition method using Sobol indices was employed to understand the relative contributions of each uncertainty parameter. Performing this analysis using results from the inverse analysis tool FIAT_Opt was found to require incredibly high computation time, and thus machine learning models were trained and evaluated as a surrogate model for FIAT_Opt. This paper demonstrates that machine learning models can be an efficient, accurate alternative to state-of-the-art inverse analysis tools like FIAT_Opt, especially for computationally-expensive processes. Using these models, the sensitivity analysis showed that uncertainties in heat capacity and thermal conductivity were the main drivers for the overall uncertainty in peak reconstructed heating and heat load.
H S Alpert↗
Progress in Modeling Global Atmospheric CO2 Fluxes and Transport: Results from Simulations with Diurnal Fluxes
Progress in better determining CO2 sources and sinks will almost certainly rely on utilization of more extensive and intensive CO2 and related observations including those from satellite remote sensing. Use of advanced data requires improved modeling and analysis capability. Under NASA Carbon Cycle Science support we seek to develop and integrate improved formulations for 1) atmospheric transport, 2) terrestrial uptake and release, 3) biomass and 4) fossil fuel burning, and 5) observational data analysis including inverse calculations. The transport modeling is based on meteorological data assimilation analysis from the Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office. Use of assimilated met data enables model comparison to CO2 and other observations across a wide range of scales of variability. In this presentation we focus on the short end of the temporal variability spectrum: hourly to synoptic to seasonal. Using CO2 fluxes at varying temporal resolution from the SIB 2 and CASA biosphere models, we examine the model's ability to simulate CO2 variability in comparison to observations at different times, locations, and altitudes. We find that the model can resolve much of the variability in the observations, although there are limits imposed by vertical resolution of boundary layer processes. The influence of key process representations is inferred. The high degree of fidelity in these simulations leads us to anticipate incorporation of realtime, highly resolved observations into a multiscale carbon cycle analysis system that will begin to bridge the gap between top-down and bottom-up flux estimation, which is a primary focus of NACP.
Collatz, G. James↗
Kinematic analysis of the ARID manipulator
The kinematic structure of the ARID manipulator lends itself to simple forward and inverse kinematics analysis. The purpose of this paper is to fully document and verify an existing analysis. The symbolic software package MATHEMATICA was used to produce and verify the equations presented here. In the analysis to follow, the standard Devenit-Hartenberg kinematic parameters of the ARID were employed.
Doty, Keith L↗
Enabling Hyper-Differential Sensitivity Analysis for Ill-Posed Inverse Problems
Inverse problems constrained by partial differential equations (PDEs) play a critical role in model development and calibration. In many applications, there are multiple uncertain parameters in a model that must be estimated. However, high dimensionality of the parameters and computational complexity of the PDE solves make such problems challenging. A common approach is to reduce the dimension by fixing some parameters (which we will call auxiliary parameters) to a best estimate and use techniques from PDE-constrained optimization to estimate the other parameters. In this article, hyper-differential sensitivity analysis (HDSA) is used to assess the sensitivity of the solution of the PDE-constrained optimization problem to changes in the auxiliary parameters. Foundational assumptions for HDSA require satisfaction of the optimality conditions which are not always practically feasible as a result of ill-posedness in the inverse problem. Here we introduce novel theoretical and computational approaches to justify and enable HDSA for ill-posed inverse problems by projecting the sensitivities on likelihood informed subspaces and defining a posteriori updates. Our proposed framework is demonstrated on a nonlinear multiphysics inverse problem motivated by estimation of spatially heterogeneous material properties in the presence of spatially distributed parametric modeling uncertainties.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Measuring Greenland Ice Mass Variation With Gravity Recovery and the Climate Experiment Gravity and GPS
The response of the Greenland ice sheet to climate change could significantly alter sea level. The ice sheet was much thicker at the last glacial maximum. To gain insight into the global change process and the future trend, it is important to evaluate the ice mass variation as a function of time and space. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission to fly in 2001 for 5 years will measure gravity changes associated with the current ice variation and the solid earth's response to past variations. Our objective is to assess the separability of different change sources, accuracy and resolution in the mass variation determination by the new gravity data and possible Global Positioning System (GPS) bedrock uplift measurements. We use a reference parameter state that follows a dynamic ice model for current mass variation and a variant of the Tushingham and Peltier ICE-3G deglaciation model for historical deglaciation. The current linear trend is also assumed to have started 5 kyr ago. The Earth model is fixed as preliminary reference Earth model (PREM) with four viscoelastic layers. A discrete Bayesian inverse algorithm is developed employing an isotropic Gaussian a priori covariance function over the ice sheet and time. We use data noise predicted by the University of Texas and JPL for major GRACE error sources. A 2 mm/yr uplift uncertainty is assumed for GPS occupation time of 5 years. We then carry out covariance analysis and inverse simulation using GRACE geoid coefficients up to degree 180 in conjunction with a number of GPS uplift rates. Present-day ice mass variation and historical deglaciation are solved simultaneously over 146 grids of roughly 110 km x 110 km and with 6 time increments of 3 kyr each, along with a common starting epoch of the current trend. For present-day ice thickness change, the covariance analysis using GRACE geoid data alone results in a root mean square (RMS) posterior root variance of 2.6 cm/yr, with fairly large a priori uncertainties in the parameters and a Gaussian correlation length of 350 km. Simulated inverse can successfully recover most features in the reference present-day change. The RMS difference between them over the grids is 2.8 cm/yr. The RMS difference becomes 1.1 cm/yr when both are averaged with a half Gaussian wavelength of 150 km. With a fixed Earth model, GRACE alone can separate the geoid signals due to past and current load fairly well. Shown are the reference geoid signatures of direct and elastic effects of the current trend, the viscoelastic effect of the same trend starting from 5 kyr ago, the Post Glacial Rebound (PGR), and the predicted GRACE geoid error. The difference between the reference and inverse modeled total viscoelastic signatures is also shown. Although past and current ice mass variations are allowed the same spatial scale, their geoid signals have different spatial patterns. GPS data can contribute to the ice mass determination as well. Additional information is contained in the original.
Wu, Xiao-Ping↗
Inverse prediction of PuO2 processing conditions using Bayesian seemingly unrelated regression with functional data
Over the past decade, a variety of innovative methodologies have been developed to better characterize the relationships between processing conditions and the physical, morphological, and chemical features of special nuclear material (SNM). Different processing conditions generate SNM products with different features, which are known as “signatures” because they are indicative of the processing conditions used to produce the material. These signatures can potentially allow a forensic analyst to determine which processes were used to produce the SNM and make inferences about where the material originated. This article investigates a statistical technique for relating processing conditions to the morphological features of PuO 2 particles. We develop a Bayesian implementation of seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) to inverse-predict unknown PuO 2 processing conditions from known PuO 2 features. Model results from simulated data demonstrate the usefulness of the technique. Applied to empirical data from a bench-scale experiment specifically designed with inverse prediction in mind, our model successfully predicts nitric acid concentration, while results for Pu concentration and precipitation temperature were equivalent to a simple mean model. Our technique compliments other recent methodologies developed for forensic analysis of nuclear material and can be generalized across the field of chemometrics for application to other materials.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
UNIPASS for AvSP? A Broader View
UNIPASS is a general-purpose probabilistic computer program consisting of three major modules, including preprocessor, solver and postprocessor. UNIPASS contains a user-friendly Graphical User Interface (GUI), numerous state-of-the-art probabilistic analysis techniques, a large library of statistical distributions and a function module with a large library of support functions that can easily define any complex limit-state function in a scripting FORTRAN-like syntax format. Its inverse probability analysis and sensitivities analysis capabilities make it a powerful design aid in any product cycle. Its precise numerical analysis engine is accurate enough to push the failure probabilities of a design to well below 10 (exp -50). UNIPASS is equipped with advanced artificial intelligence that is designed to handle systems with an essentially unlimited number of random variables with ease and efficiency. Its modular arrangement allows you to tailor an analysis to the desired level of accuracy and efficiency. The depth and comprehensiveness of UNIPASS are built upon the decades of experience and expertise of industry leaders including Boeing Aircraft, NASA and the DoD. Its rich content also makes UNIPASS a valuable instructional tool for random processes and probabilistic mechanics. The topics include: 1) Reliability in AvSP; 2) Role of UNIPASS in AvSP; and 3) Examples. This paper is in viewgraph form.
Wu, N. Eva↗