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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian calibration of bubble size dynamics applied to CO 2 gas fermenters

To accelerate the scale-up of gaseous CO 2 fermentation reactors, computational models need to predict gas-to-liquid mass transfer which requires capturing the bubble size dynamics, i.e. bubble breakup and coalescence. However, the applicability of existing models beyond air–water mixtures remains to be established. Here, an inverse modeling approach, accelerated with a neural network surrogate, calibrates the breakup and coalescence closure models, that are used in class methods for population balance modeling (PBM). The calibration is performed based on experimental results obtained in a CO 2 -air–water-coflowing bubble column reactor. Bayesian inference is used to account for noise in the experimental dataset and bias in the simulation results. To accurately capture gas holdup and interphase mass transfer, the results show that the breakage rate needs to be increased by one order of magnitude. In conclusion, the inferred model parameters are then used on a separate configuration and shown to also improve bubble size distribution predictions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hierarchical Bayesian modeling for Inverse Uncertainty Quantification of system thermal-hydraulics code using critical flow experimental data

The best estimate plus uncertainty methodology in nuclear system thermal-hydraulic studies necessitates a comprehensive understanding of uncertainties in system code predictions. The forward uncertainty quantification (UQ) process involves the propagation of input uncertainties through the computational models to obtain uncertainties in the outputs. To this end, achieving an accurate estimation of input uncertainties is important, which is the focus of inverse UQ (IUQ). Traditionally, research in Bayesian IUQ within the nuclear engineering domain has largely relied on single-level Bayesian inference. While being effective for relatively small datasets, this approach encounters limitations for cases with large datasets. The use of a single-level model may prove inefficient, as the resultant posterior distributions can significantly differ when distinct subsets of data are employed. To address this issue, we employ an hierarchical Bayesian model for IUQ. Furthermore, this approach involves organizing observations into different groups based on the test conditions, thereby accommodating varying calibration parameters across these distinct groups. In this study, we developed and implemented a hierarchical Bayesian IUQ method to consider the grouping effect of critical flow measurement data from various geometries. Comparing the outcomes of IUQ under different selections of test data using hierarchical Bayesian IUQ against those obtained from single-level Bayesian IUQ, the forward propagation of hierarchical Bayesian IUQ results demonstrates a notably improved agreement with the experimental data.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2012

New Approaches to Quantifying Transport Model Error in Atmospheric CO2 Simulations

In recent years, much progress has been made in observing CO2 distributions from space. However, the use of these observations to infer source/sink distributions in inversion studies continues to be complicated by difficulty in quantifying atmospheric transport model errors. We will present results from several different experiments designed to quantify different aspects of transport error using the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM). In the first set of experiments, an ensemble of simulations is constructed using perturbations to parameters in the model s moist physics and turbulence parameterizations that control sub-grid scale transport of trace gases. Analysis of the ensemble spread and scales of temporal and spatial variability among the simulations allows insight into how parameterized, small-scale transport processes influence simulated CO2 distributions. In the second set of experiments, atmospheric tracers representing model error are constructed using observation minus analysis statistics from NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The goal of these simulations is to understand how errors in large scale dynamics are distributed, and how they propagate in space and time, affecting trace gas distributions. These simulations will also be compared to results from NASA's Carbon Monitoring System Flux Pilot Project that quantified the impact of uncertainty in satellite constrained CO2 flux estimates on atmospheric mixing ratios to assess the major factors governing uncertainty in global and regional trace gas distributions.

Ott, L.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Techniques of ground-truth measurements of desert-scrub structure

Inversion of remote sensing data taken over a desert scrub surface in Texas with a multidirectionally viewing field radiometer, PARABOLA, yields the value of 0.12 for the protrusion parameter, s, (the projection on a vertical plane of plants per unit area) if isotropy (Lambert law) is assumed for the underlying soil. However, a significantly higher value of s, in the range 0.15 to 0.20, can be inferred if the soil is assumed anisotropic. It is concluded that in remote sensing of sparse vegetation, it is important to know the reflectance characteristics of the underlying soil. Other techniques that can be used to infer desert scrub vegetation structure include various photographic techniques, and measurements of reflected radiance from zenith for a range of solar elevation angles on a clear day.

Ottermann, J.↗
NASA NTRS2003

A Test of Maxwell's Z Model Using Inverse Modeling

In modeling impact craters a small region of energy and momentum deposition, commonly called a "point source", is often assumed. This assumption implies that an impact is the same as an explosion at some depth below the surface. Maxwell's Z Model, an empirical point-source model derived from explosion cratering, has previously been compared with numerical impact craters with vertical incidence angles, leading to two main inferences. First, the flowfield center of the Z Model must be placed below the target surface in order to replicate numerical impact craters. Second, for vertical impacts, the flow-field center cannot be stationary if the value of Z is held constant; rather, the flow-field center migrates downward as the crater grows. The work presented here evaluates the utility of the Z Model for reproducing both vertical and oblique experimental impact data obtained at the NASA Ames Vertical Gun Range (AVGR). Specifically, ejection angle data obtained through Three-Dimensional Particle Image Velocimetry (3D PIV) are used to constrain the parameters of Maxwell's Z Model, including the value of Z and the depth and position of the flow-field center via inverse modeling.

Anderson, J. L. B.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Inference of sea surface temperature, near surface wind, and atmospheric water by Fourier analysis of Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer data

The Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer measures thermal microwave emission from the earth in both polarizations at wavelengths of 0.8, 1.4, 1.7, 2.8 and 4.6 cm. Similar instruments were launched on Nimbus 7 and Seasat. Both spatial resolution on the earth and relative sensitivity to different geophysical parameters change with wavelength. Therefore, spatial Fourier components of geophysical parameters are inferred from the corresponding Fourier components of the radiometer measurements, taking into account the different dependence of signal-to-noise ratio on spatial frequency for each radiometer wavelength. The geophysical parameters are sea surface temperature, near-surface wind speed, integrated water vapor mass, integrated liquid water mass, and the product of rainfall rate with height of the rain layer. The capabilities and limitations of the inversion method are illustrated by means of data from the North Atlantic and from tropical storms.

Rosenkranz, P. W.↗
DOE OSTI2024

(Doublon) Benchmarking of Different Inverse Point Kinetics Implementations for an Autocorrected Reactimeter Algorithm

In November 2017, the Transient Reactor Test Facility returned to operation. Since that time, many transient test series have been completed, such as the Transient Heatsink Overpower Response capsule (THOR), the Transient Water Irradiation System for TREAT (TWIST), and Sirius. Each has provided valuable data for materials performance and reactor safety that can be applied in future designs. During each experimental series, detector count rates provided important information on the core behavior during transients. However, a limitation of these data is that variations in the neutron distribution during experiments can cause errors when attempting to infer reactivity evolution from detector signals. Neutron physics codes can be used to compute the flux shape variations. However, this is a poor solution when the experimental data is used for code verification, validation and uncertainty quantification. Indeed, if the output of the code is used both as a reference and to correct what the reference is compared to, the circular dependency limits the quality of the verification, validation and uncertainty quantification approach. To overcome this problem, the autocorrected reactimeter algorithm (ACRA) has been developed. This approach infers a time-dependent reactivity evolution by testing different spatial corrections and selecting the one that minimizes reactivity variations when the core is in a frozen configuration (i.e., when there is no variation in parameters affecting reactivity). However, the scope of this method was limited to transients where there were negligible thermal feedback. Indeed, the core is never in a frozen configuration when the fuel temperature varies during the whole transient. This is our motivation for developing an improved version of the ACRA that does not require frozen configurations. To develop this new algorithm, we need a precise and unbiased implementation of the inverse point kinetic equations (IPKEs) as any error in the reactivity evaluation will be propagated into the choice of the optimal spatial correction. Indeed, the previous reactimeter algorithm would use approximations, such as a negligible flux amplitude derivative, to focus on rapidity. For the numerical validation of ACRA, we aim at absolute error under for reactivity derived from signals similar to the one of this study. In this summary, we test eight different IPKE implementations. Each will process a mockup signal built for this study, similar to those that the future ACRA will process. Each reactivity output will be compared to the reference reactivity that has been used to generate the mockup signal. The implementation minimizing the difference with the reference reactivity will be used in the development of a new ACRA formulation.

73 - NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Physics Informed Spatio-Temporal Network for Streamflow Data Imputation

Reliable reconstruction of incomplete streamflow records is critical for improving hydrological forecasting, flood preparedness, and water resource management. However, large observational gaps and uncertainties in governing physical parameters limit the accuracy of traditional statistical and machinelearning imputation frameworks. To address these challenges, we develop a Bayesian Physics-Informed Spatio-Temporal Network (BPI-STNet) that jointly captures spatial and temporal dependencies while enforcing hydrologic consistency through embedded physical constraints. The framework integrates a GraphSAGE-LSTM architecture to model spatial connectivity across gauges and temporal flow dynamics, coupled with a Bayesian update mechanism to estimate uncertain parameters in a simplified water-balance framework. Unlike conventional physics-informed networks that rely on sampling-based posterior estimation, BPI-STNet derives an analytic solution to the inverse problem, allowing closed-form Bayesian updates of uncertain parameters Λ={α,β,k} using Gaussian priors and likelihoods. Applied to daily observations from the Susquehanna River Basin (1980-2022), BPI-STNet achieves substantial improvements over a purely data-driven RGNN baseline, which reduced RMSE by 23 % and MAE by 9 %, and achieving an average NSE values up to 0.96. The results demonstrate that coupling Bayesian inference with physics-informed learning yields physically consistent, uncertainty-aware reconstructions that preserve the temporal persistence and statistical distribution of observed flows. The proposed framework establishes a generalizable paradigm for data-sparse hydrologic systems where both data fidelity and physical interpretability are essential.

Krishnan Kutty Ambika, Anukesh [ORNL] (ORCID:00000↗
NASA NTRS1984

Discrete Random Media Techniques for Microwave Modeling of Vegetated Terrain

Microwave remote sensing of agricultural crops and forested regions is studied. Long term goals of the research involve modeling vegetation so that radar signatures can be used to infer the parameters which characterize the vegetation and underlying ground. Vegetation is modeled by discrete scatterers viz, leaves, stems, branches and trunks. These are replaced by glossy dielectric discs and cylinders. Rough surfaces are represented by their mean and spectral characteristics. Average scattered power is then calculated by employing discrete random media methodology such as the distorted Born approximation or transport theory. Both coherent and incoherent multiple scattering techniques are explored. Once direct methods are developed, inversion techniques can be investigated.

Lang, R. H.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Recommendations on setup in simulating atmospheric gravity waves under conventionally neutral boundary layer conditions

Wind farm-induced atmospheric gravity waves have been the subject of recent research as they can impact wind farm performance. Pressure variations associated with gravity waves can contribute to the global blockage effect and wind farm wake recovery. Therefore, accurate numerical simulation of flow fields, where wind-farm-induced gravity waves may be produced, is important. Three main considerations in such simulations are the overall domain size, the use of Rayleigh damping near domain boundaries to dampen gravity waves, and advection damping at the inlet to prevent spurious oscillations. Often these considerations are treated ad hoc rather than systematically. This work aims to test and extend the systematic modelling of internal gravity waves proposed in a preliminary investigation to modelling of both internal and trapped gravity waves. The preliminary study identifies the length scales to set the domain and damping layer sizes and the time scale to configure the Rayleigh damping coefficient but under linearly stratified conditions. Large eddy simulations of flow through a wind farm canopy are performed under conventionally neutral boundary layer (CNBL) conditions to test the validity of proposed setups for CNBL conditions. Background atmospheric parameters, such as Froude number (Fr), inversion height (H i ), and inversion layer Froude number (Fr i ) control most of the atmospheric gravity wave characteristics. We validated for CBNL conditions that the effective wavelengths of the internal gravity waves are the correct length scale to configure the domain size and damping layer thickness. Likewise, the optimum damping coefficient to dampen the internal gravity waves relates to the free atmosphere's buoyancy frequency or buoyant perturbations' time scale. We infer that the damping coefficient in the inversion layer may relate to the inversion buoyancy frequency to effectively dampen the trapped gravity waves. Moreover, the advection damping length is linked to the horizontal wavelength of the trapped gravity waves in the inversion layer to prevent spurious waves at the inlet by retaining wave energy accumulation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hamiltonian parameter inference from resonant inelastic x-ray scattering with active learning

Identifying model Hamiltonians is a vital step toward creating predictive models of materials. Here, in this study, we combine Bayesian optimization with the EDRIXS numerical package to infer Hamiltonian parameters from resonant inelastic x-ray scattering (RIXS) spectra within the single atom approximation. To evaluate the efficacy of our method, we test it on experimental RIXS spectra of NiPS 3 , NiCl 2 , Ca 3 ⁢LiOsO 6 , and Fe 2⁢ O 3 , and demonstrate that it can reproduce results obtained from hand-fitted parameters to a precision similar to expert human analysis while providing a more systematic mapping of parameter space. Our work provides a key first step toward solving the inverse scattering problem to extract effective multi-orbital models from information-dense RIXS measurements, which can be applied to a host of quantum materials. We also propose atomic model parameter sets for two materials, Ca 3⁢ LiOsO 6 and Fe 2⁢ O 3 , that were previously missing from the literature.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics consistent machine learning framework for inverse modeling with applications to ICF capsule implosions

In high energy density physics (HEDP) and inertial confinement fusion (ICF), predictive modeling is complicated by uncertainty in parameters that characterize various aspects of the modeled system, such as those characterizing material properties, equation of state (EOS), opacities, and initial conditions. Typically, however, these parameters are not directly observable. What is observed instead is a time sequence of radiographic projections using X-rays. In this work, we define a set of sparse hydrodynamic features derived from the outgoing shock profile and outer material edge, which can be obtained from radiographic measurements, to directly infer such parameters. Our machine learning (ML)-based methodology involves a pipeline of two architectures, a radiograph-to-features network (R2FNet) and a features-to-parameters network (F2PNet), that are trained independently and later combined to approximate a posterior distribution for the parameters from radiographs. We show that the machine learning architectures are able to accurately infer initial conditions and EOS parameters, and that the estimated parameters can be used in a hydrodynamics code to obtain density fields, shocks, and material interfaces that satisfy thermodynamic and hydrodynamic consistency. Finally, we demonstrate that features resulting from an unknown EOS model can be successfully mapped onto parameters of a chosen analytical EOS model, implying that network predictions are learning physics, with a degree of invariance to the underlying choice of EOS model. To the best of our knowledge, our framework is the first demonstration of recovering both thermodynamic and hydrodynamic consistent density fields from noisy radiographs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Stochastic Reconstruction of Thermal Protection Material Properties from Arc-Jet Experiments

Material response models are used to assess reliability using variances in the bond-line temperature predictions based on uncertainties in trajectory, aerothermal environment, and material properties. A key deficiency in the current approach is that input uncertainties are too often subjective, empirical, or ad-hoc, and are not rigorously linked to the arc-jet test data used to develop the TPS material model. While materials such as PICA are well understood, future missions may require more novel materials such as HEEET where unknown uncertainties have real consequences on the ability to assess reliability. A quantifiable estimate of reliability requires an iterative methodology where the parameters driving the variance in bond-line temperature (for example) are systematically identified. A test campaign to collect data or develop new models can then be identified to reduce those input uncertainties. A Bayesian inference loop defines these connections mathematically, i.e., prior knowledge about uncertainty is updated based on observation. While these concepts are well known (and often applied intuitively in a non-rigorous approach), only recent advances in reduced-order modelling have made them computationally viable methods for engineering. By replacing deterministic inverse methods with stochastic approaches, the hope is new materials proposed for future missions can more rapidly be developed with a greater understanding of the TPS material reliability. Two additional steps for the analysis of arc jet test data are discussed. The first is ability to construct a reduced-order model using material response simulations (Icarus/US3D) of the arc-jet test articles, and the second is the inclusion of this surrogate model in the Bayesian inversion process. Both capabilities will be demonstrated using prior PICA arc-jet test data. The quality of a surrogate model will be investigated and the variances on the calibrated material properties will be compared to our current understanding of the PICA material model.

Material response↗
NASA NTRS2012

Polarimetric Retrievals of Surface and Cirrus Clouds Properties in the Region Affected by the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

In 2010, the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) performed several aerial surveys over the region affected by the oil spill caused by the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon offshore platform. The instrument was deployed on the NASA Langley B200 aircraft together with the High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL), which provides information on the distribution of the aerosol layers beneath the aircraft, including an accurate estimate of aerosol optical depth. This work illustrates the merits of polarization measurements in detecting variations of ocean surface properties linked to the presence of an oil slick. In particular, we make use of the degree of linear polarization in the glint region, which is severely affected by variations in the refractive index but insensitive to the waviness of the water surface. Alterations in the surface optical properties are therefore expected to directly affect the polarization response of the RSP channel at 2264 nm, where both molecular and aerosol scattering are negligible and virtually all of the observed signal is generated via Fresnel reflection at the surface. The glint profile at this wavelength is fitted with a model which can optimally estimate refractive index, wind speed and direction, together with aircraft attitude variations affecting the viewing geometry. The retrieved refractive index markedly increases over oil-contaminated waters, while the apparent wind speed is significantly lower than in adjacent uncontaminated areas, suggesting that the slick dampens high-frequency components of the ocean wave spectrum. The constraint on surface reflectance provided by the short-wave infrared channels is a cornerstone of established procedures to retrieve atmospheric aerosol microphysical parameters based on the inversion of the RSP multispectral measurements. This retrieval, which benefits from the ancillary information provided by the HSRL, was in this specific case hampered by prohibitive variability in atmospheric conditions (very inhomogeneous aerosol distribution and cloud cover). Although the results presented for the surface are essentially unaffected, we discuss the results obtained by typing algorithms in sorting the complex mix of aerosol types, and show evidence of oriented ice in cirrus clouds present in the area. In this context, polarization measurements at 1880 nm were used to infer ice habit and cirrus optical depth, which was found in the subvisual/threshold-visible regime, confirming the utility of the aforementioned RSP channel for the remote sensing of even thin cold clouds.

Polarization↗
DOE OSTI2026

Component-Level Inverse Design of Transmon Qubits Using Neural Networks

Designing a superconducting qubit to realize specific Hamiltonian parameters typically requires iterating through a time and compute-intensive forward loop in which the designer chooses a layout geometry, simulates it, extracts circuit parameters such as capacitances, and refines the geometry. We study the inverse version of this task using a neural-network workflow that maps target Hamiltonian parameters directly to component-level layout parameters, which we subsequently demonstrate on a planar transmon layout. During training, we pair the inverse model with a frozen forward surrogate model and evaluate the loss in Hamiltonian space rather than in layout-parameter space. In validation against a conventional EM solver, 97% of generated designs produce usable geometries, and the inverse-plus-surrogate pipeline reaches mean percent errors of 0.73% for qubit frequency and 1.58% for anharmonicity, comparable to or below the fabrication and simulation-to-measurement uncertainty expected for academic-process transmon devices of this type. A single pipeline query takes ~60 ms on CPU, versus ~2 min for a conventional EM capacitance extraction on the same hardware, a speedup of approximately 2,000x. Batching minimizes the AI model inference overhead, reducing the runtime to 3.1 microseconds per sample on CPU and 2.6 microseconds per sample on GPU at a batch size of 2048, resulting in speedups of 3.9 x 10^7 and 4.6 x 10^7, respectively, relative to a single conventional CPU EM extraction. Our results indicate that component-level inverse design usefully extends and complements conventional EM simulation, including for small datasets on the order of 1,000 samples.

Seidel, Olivia [Fermilab; Texas U., Arlington]↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Model-Based Probabilistic Inversion Framework for Wire Fault Detection Using TDR

Time-domain reflectometry (TDR) is one of the standard methods for diagnosing faults in electrical wiring and interconnect systems, with a long-standing history focused mainly on hardware development of both high-fidelity systems for laboratory use and portable hand-held devices for field deployment. While these devices can easily assess distance to hard faults such as sustained opens or shorts, their ability to assess subtle but important degradation such as chafing remains an open question. This paper presents a unified framework for TDR-based chafing fault detection in lossy coaxial cables by combining an S-parameter based forward modeling approach with a probabilistic (Bayesian) inference algorithm. Results are presented for the estimation of nominal and faulty cable parameters from laboratory data.

Schuet, Stefan R.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Calculation of atmospheric loss from microwave radiometric noise temperature measurements

Microwave propagation loss in the atmosphere can be inferred from microwave radiometric noise temperature measurements. The relevant equations are given and a derivation and calculation is made assuming various physical models. Comparison is made with the commonly used lumped element atmospheric model (isothermal and uniform loss) and the model with linear temperature and exponential loss distributions. The results are useful for estimating the integral inversion differences due to the model selection. This indicates that the commonly used lumped element atmospheric model is a very good approximation with judicious choice of the effective physical temperature. For the worst case comparison, the lumped element model agrees with the variable parameter model within 0.2 dB up to a propagation loss of 3 dB.

Stelzried, C.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian mixture model approach to quantifying the empirical nuclear saturation point

The equation of state (EOS) in the limit of infinite symmetric nuclear matter exhibits an equilibrium density, $n_0 \approx 0.16 \, \mathrm{fm}^{-3}$, at which the pressure vanishes and the energy per particle attains its minimum, $E_0 \approx -16 \, \mathrm{MeV}$. Although not directly measurable, the nuclear saturation point $(n_0,E_0)$ can be extrapolated by density functional theory (DFT), providing tight constraints for microscopic interactions derived from chiral effective field theory (EFT). However, when considering several DFT predictions for $(n_0,E_0)$ from Skyrme and Relativistic Mean Field (RMF) models together, a discrepancy between these model classes emerges at high confidence levels that each model prediction's uncertainty cannot explain. How can we leverage these DFT constraints to rigorously benchmark nuclear saturation properties of chiral interactions? To address this question, we present a Bayesian mixture model that combines multiple DFT predictions for $(n_0,E_0)$ using an efficient conjugate prior approach. The inferred posterior distribution for the saturation point's mean and covariance matrix follows a Normal-inverse-Wishart class, resulting in posterior predictives in the form of correlated, bivariate $t$-distributions. The DFT uncertainty reports are then used to mix these posteriors using an ordinary Monte Carlo approach. At the 95\% credibility level, we estimate $n_0 \approx 0.157 \pm 0.010 \, \mathrm{fm}^{-3}$ and $E_0 \approx -15.97 \pm 0.40 \, \mathrm{MeV}$ for the marginal (univariate) $t$-distributions. Combined with chiral EFT calculations of the pure neutron matter EOS, we obtain bivariate normal distributions for the nuclear symmetry energy and its slope parameter evaluated at $n_0$: $S_v \approx 32.0 \pm 1.1 \, \mathrm{MeV}$ and $L\approx 52.6\pm 8.1 \, \mathrm{MeV}$ (95\%), respectively. Furthermore, our Bayesian framework is publicly available, so practitioners can readily use and extend our results.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗