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Recovery of refractivity profiles and pressure and temperature distributions in the lower atmosphere from satellite-to-satellite radio occultation data

The feasibility of recovering parameters from one-way range rate between two earth orbiting spacecraft during occultation of the tracking signal by the earth's lower atmosphere. The tracking data is inverted by an integral transformation (Abel transform) to obtain a vertical refractivity profile above the point of closest approach of the ray connecting the satellites. Pressure and temperature distributions can be obtained from values of dry refractivity using the hydrostatic equation and perfect gas law. Two methods are investigated for recovering pressure and temperature parameters. Results show that recovery is much more sensitive to satellite velocity errors than to satellite position errors. An error analysis is performed. An example is given demonstrating recovery of parameters from radio occultation data obtained during satellite-to-satellite tracking of Nimbus 6 by the ATS 6 satellite.

Murray, C. W., Jr.↗

Geothermal Play-Fairway Analysis of Washington State Prospects: Final Report

The Washington State Geothermal Play-Fairway Analysis overcomes the exploration challenges posed by dense vegetation, glacial deposits, and extreme precipitation. The geothermal play-fairways we target are locations where heat, permeability, and saturated porosity are present in sufficient volume to provide adequate heat exchange at depths accessible by modern drilling technology. The three study areas lie along the Cascade Range magmatic arc and are near Mount Baker, Mount St. Helens, and the Wind River Valley. The seven-year project is divided into three phases. In Phase 1 we build on a previous statewide assessment of geothermal resources and develop an initial modeling approach. The results are a series of favorability, uncertainty, and risk maps for three targeted study areas. Based on these initial results, we collect new geologic and geophysical data to further refine our modeling and reduce exploration uncertainty in Phase 2. We improve the modeling method to handle the new data and update the favorability, uncertainty, and risk maps. We also update the conceptual geothermal resource models. In Phase 3 we validate our modeling approach by drilling two temperature-gradient holes and collecting and analyzing core, image logs, and new geochemistry. Our modeling approach improves on an earlier statewide method through a more-rigorous and detailed assessment of heat and permeability. Permeability potential is assessed through geomechanical modeling of the deformation that can generate and maintain reservoir porosity and permeability. Metrics to inform heat potential include temperature-gradient wells, which are sparse in Washington; proximity of Quaternary volcanic vents and young intrusive rock; spring temperature; and reservoir temperature inferred from geothermometry. We weight the individual components using an expert-guided approach known as the Analytical Hierarchy Process. During Phase 2 we also develop a fluid-filled fracture model, and an infrastructure model that helps to delineate areas which are more favorable for geothermal development based on proximity to transmission lines, elevation, land ownership and use restrictions, and availability of process water. New geologic and geophysical data is collected during Phase 2 in each of our three main study areas. At Mount Baker and north of Mount St. Helens we conduct 1:24,000-scale geologic mapping and lidar analysis to better constrain the location and character of surface faults; detailed mapping in the Wind River Valley was completed just prior to the start of this project. Ages of intrusive rocks are determined with 40 Ar/ 39 Ar geochronology, though all of our samples are Miocene or older. We collect ground based gravity observations (a total of 1,580 new stations) in all of our study areas and ground-based magnetic lines (a total of 93 km) at Mount Baker. These data are combined with existing gravity and aeromagnetic data and used to constrain fault locations and geometry. Two to three cross sections are constructed at each study area using the mapped surface geology and forward-modeling of the gravity and magnetic data; these cross sections form the basis for our updated conceptual models. We collect magnetotelluric surveys at Mount Baker and Mount St. Helens and these data are inverted to form a resistivity model from the surface to about 10 km depth; each model shows conductive zones that can be interpreted as upwelling geothermal fluids. At Mount St. Helens we deploy a passive seismic array and use the newly detected events to refine the location of the Saint Helens seismic zone. We also employ ambient-noise tomography to develop a detailed seismic-velocity model for the study area and use this model to help constrain our cross sections and conceptual model. Based on the new data collected during Phase 2—and our updated models—we develop a campaign of temperature-gradient holes and core analysis to validate our modeling in Phase 3. Drill hole MB76-31 is located near Little Park Creek, 11 km west-southwest of the summit of Mount Baker, and is 1,471 ft deep. About 410 ft of core from the lower portion of the hole—and image logs from ~175 ft below ground surface to the bottom—are collected and analyzed. Water samples are collected and processed for geothermometry. Drill hole MSH17-24 is located along upper Schultz Creek, 16 km north-northeast of Mount St. Helens and has core from 470 ft to the bottom at 1,053 ft. We did not collect image logs due to borehole stability concerns, but water samples are collected and analyzed for geothermometry. Repeat temperature-gradient measurements are made at both sites and thermal conductivity is measured from core samples. At MB76-31, the equilibrated temperature gradient of 64°C/km and calculated heat flow of 141–159 mW/m 2 is more than twice the regional average. Detailed mapping and analysis of the core, coupled with correlation to the image logs, indicates a history of permeability generation consistent with our predictions of high permeability. Because the site has high favorability in the Phase 2 model, we consider the results a positive validation of the modeling. At site MSH17-24, the equilibrated temperature gradient of ~15°C/km and calculated heat flow of 41–43 mW/m 2 are similar to regional. Geochemical analysis of the water samples indicates a meteoric source without any geothermal component. Detailed outcrop-based mapping of fault exposures near the drill site and analysis of image logs from nearby boreholes indicates a history of permeability generation consistent with our predictions. Because the site has low favorability in the Phase 2 model, we consider the results a positive validation of the modeling. Together, the two sites provide a reasonably positive validation of the Phase 2 modeling and should encourage future use of this modeling approach.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Data Privacy for the Grid: Toward a Data Privacy Standard for Inverter-Based and Distributed Energy Resources

The traditional approach to planning the distribution grid has focused on reliability in the context of gradual and reasonably predictable load growth. Forecasts of load growth, combined with asset management practices, were used by system planners to identify upgrades to the system to maintain or improve reliability. The decisions, typically based within load flow analysis tools, included considerations about contingency scenarios and corporate forecasts (i.e., top-down predictions at a summary level of what would happen in a particular area that could impact load growth and behavior). As a result, today, this traditional approach no longer fits all purposes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Geometric Interpretation of the Cluster Location Problem Part II: Application to the Pahala, Hawaii, Earthquake Sequence

In the companion “Theory” article, we presented a new framing of the seismic location problem in terms of differential geometry (Harris et al., 2025). From that viewpoint, we developed a “project and correct” approach for estimating the relative locations of earthquakes. Here, in this study, we use project and correct to estimate high-precision relative locations of events from an earthquake sequence beneath the town of Pahala, Hawaii, using high-precision correlation-derived picks. The sequence was active from 2020 through 2022 and produced many highly correlated signals at Hawaii Volcano Observatory (HVO) stations on the island of Hawaii. The data we inverted consisted of 2882 events with observations at 5 HVO stations. For comparison with the travel-time image, we also produced conventional hypocenter solutions using both the Bayesloc program (Myers et al., 2007, 2009) and a purpose-built double-difference code. There were obvious structural elements in the resulting image, the resolution of which we used to test the performance of the project and the correct algorithm. For the projection step, we first produced a 3D local basis using an singular value decomposition (SVD) of the 2882 groups of times. Projection of the travel-time vectors into this basis resulted in an image with structures similar to those produced by our conventional locators, but with distortion as predicted by theory. Removing the distortion requires an inverse operator generated from the metric tensor at the geometric centroid of the events. We compared two approaches to obtaining such an inverse operator. The first uses an estimate of the geographic centroid of the event cloud from the centroid of the travel-time data. The second approach uses the centroid of the conventionally produced locations. The first approach produces a corrected image very similar to the conventional results, but with a rotation. The corrected image produced using the conventionally derived centroid is a near-exact match to the conventional locations.

Dodge, Douglas A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab↗

Deep Learning-Based Failure Prognostic Model for PV Inverter Using Field Measurements

Here, this study presents a novel approach for the precise monitoring and prognosis of photovoltaic (PV) inverter status, which is crucial for the proactive maintenance of PV systems. It addresses the gaps in traditional model-based methods, which tend to neglect the overall reliability of inverters, and the limitations of data-driven approaches that largely depend on simulated data. This research presents a robust solution applicable to real-world scenarios. The proposed data-driven model for PV inverter failure prognosis employs actual inverter measurements, integrating various operational and weather-related factors based on domain knowledge. This approach effectively represents inverter stressors and operational status. Utilizing an Enhanced Siamese Convolutional Neural Network (ESCNN), the model merges operational data with domain knowledge features, redefining the prognosis challenge as a classification task. Furthermore, the paper discusses an ESCNN-based real-time inverter failure monitoring method developed on the well-trained model. The proposed models are rigorously trained and tested with real inverter data and a novel filtering method is included to address accidental failures in practical scenarios. The results validate the model's efficacy, and the directions for future research are also outlined.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Effects of Atmospheric Models on the Estimation of Infrasonic Source Functions at the Source Physics Experiment

We invert infrasound signals for an equivalent seismoacoustic source function using different atmospheric models to produce the necessary Green’s functions. The infrasound signals were produced by a series of underground chemical explosions as part of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE). In a previous study, we inverted the infrasound data using so-called predictive atmospheric models, which were based on historic, regional-scaled, publicly available weather observations interpolated onto a 3D grid. For the work presented here, we invert the same infrasound data, but using atmospheric models based on weather data collected in a time window that includes the approximate time of the explosion experiments, which we term postdictive models. We build two versions of the postdictive models for each SPE event: one that is based solely on the regional scaled observations, and one that is based on both regional scaled observations combined with on-site observations obtained by a weather sonde released at the time of the SPE. We then invert the observed data set three times, once for each atmospheric model type. We find that the estimated seismoacoustic source functions are relatively similar in waveform shape regardless of which atmospheric model that we used to construct the Green’s functions. However, we find that the amplitude of the estimated source functions is systematically dependent on the atmospheric model type: using the predictive atmospheric models to invert the data generally yields estimated source functions that are larger in amplitude than those estimated using the postdictive models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Combining translational and rotational seismic motions to invert local-scale seismic data for time-variable moment tensors: do rotational motions help for high-frequency seismic data produced by underground explosions?

SUMMARY We present an analysis of combining translational and rotational seismic data in an inversion for the time-variable source time functions corresponding to the components of the seismic moment tensor. We conduct a series of numerical experiments where the data are simulated by a combination of an underground explosion and a co-located double couple shear source and recorded on surface-mounted seismometers within 1–2 km of the source. The experiments are designed to mimic explosion seismology experiments, and thus the data are in the 1–10 Hz frequency range and contain very few surface waves. We use a Monte Carlo method to propagate Earth model uncertainty into the estimates of seismic source parameters. In our experiments, we find that the uncertainty of the estimated seismic source parameters increases when we add rotational seismic motions to the inversion when using a constant number of data channels. In this case, the increased degree of uncertainty in the final results is most likely due to the near-surface Earth model uncertainty that we introduce in our simulations. However, for a fixed number of seismic stations, adding rotational seismic motions to the inversion acts to decrease the uncertainty of the estimated seismic source parameters, most likely due to the increase in the number of data channels used in the inversion.

Poppeliers, Christian (ORCID:0000000159526849)↗

OASIS: Offsetting Active Reconstruction Attacks in Federated Learning

Federated Learning (FL) has garnered significant attention for its potential to protect user privacy while enhancing model training efficiency. For that reason, FL has found its use in various domains, from health care to industrial engineering, especially where data cannot be easily exchanged due to sensitive information or privacy laws. However, recent research has demonstrated that FL protocols can be easily compromised by active reconstruction attacks executed by dishonest servers. These attacks involve the malicious modification of global model parameters, allowing the server to obtain a verbatim copy of users' private data by inverting their gradient updates. Tackling this class of attack remains a crucial challenge due to the strong threat model. In this paper, we propose a defense mechanism, namely OASIS, based on image augmentation that effectively counteracts active reconstruction attacks while preserving model performance. We first uncover the core principle of gradient inversion that enables these attacks and theoretically identify the main conditions by which the defense can be robust regardless of the attack strategies. We then construct our defense with image augmentation showing that it can undermine the attack principle. Comprehensive evaluations demonstrate the efficacy of the defense mechanism highlighting its feasibility as a solution.

deep neural networks↗

Inversion of downhole electrical measurements for proppant mapping using very fast simulated annealing

Proppant mapping is critical for optimizing fracture treatment design and improving wells’ productivity. An electrode-based resistivity tool concept was developed earlier for proppant mapping in cased-hole wells. An array of insulating gaps is installed and cemented in place as a permanent part of the casing string. The electrical measurements are performed by imposing a voltage across each insulating gap, one at a time, before and after hydraulic fracture operations. The voltages across other insulating gaps near the transmitter gap are recorded. The method relies on direct excitation of the casing, which is expected to overcome the severe limitations of induction tools in cased-hole wells. A forward model based on a finite volume method has been developed to simulate the tool’s response to one or multiple fractures. To enable the implementation of such a practical system in multistage fractured horizontal wells, a fast and robust inversion approach is required. To that end, we have developed a divide-and-conquer approach based on a global optimization algorithm very fast simulated annealing (VFSA). Specifically, the original inverse problem is divided into subproblems and each subproblem can be solved separately using VFSA. The results indicate that our approach can invert the data and output widths and radii of multiple fractures without requiring a large number of forward simulations. The robustness of the inverse solver is also tested by adding Gaussian noise to the synthetic data. We tested example cases that demonstrate that when up to 5% noise is introduced, VFSA still provides very accurate inversion results with moderate uncertainties. Inversion results with some more realistic conditions, e.g., tilted fractures, complex fractures, and so on, are also presented.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Structural Studies of Amorphous Materials by Fluctuation Electron Microscopy

Fluctuation Electron Microscopy (FEM) is a technique that examines the fluctuations in electron scattering across a uniformly thin amorphous sample. The statistics of the intensity fluctuations, mean and variance, reveal any underlying medium-range order present in the structure. The goals of this project were: (1) To determine the fundamentals of the scattering physics that gives rise to the variance signal in fluctuation electron microscopy (FEM); (2) To use these discoveries to find ways to quantify FEM; (3) To apply the FEM method to interesting and technologically important families of amorphous materials, particularly those with important applications in energy-related processes. Excellent progress was made in items (1) and (2). In stage (3) we did not examine the metamict zircons, as proposed. Instead, we examined films of polycrystalline and amorphous semi-conducting diamond. Significant accomplishments are: (1) A Reverse Monte Carlo procedure was successfully implemented to invert FEM data into a structural model. This is computer-intensive, but it demonstrated that diffraction and FEM data from amorphous silicon are most consistent with a paracrystallite model. This means that there is more diamond-like topology present in amorphous silicon than is predicted by the continuous random network model. (2) There is significant displacement decoherence arising in diffraction from amorphous silicon and carbon. The samples are being bombarded by the electron beam and atoms do not stay still while being irradiated – much more than was formerly understood. The atom motions cause the destructive and constructive interferences in the diffraction pattern to fluctuate with time, and it is the time-averaged speckle that is being measured. The variance is reduced by a factor m, 4 ≤ m ≤ 1000, relative to that predicted by kinematical scattering theory. (3) Speckle intensity obeys a gamma distribution, where the mean intensity $ \overline{I}\ $ and m are the two parameters governing the shape of the gamma distribution profile. m is determined by the illumination spatial coherence, which is normally very high, and mostly by the displacement decoherence within the sample. (4) Amorphous materials are more affected by the electron beam than are crystalline materials. Different samples exhibit different disruptibility, as measured by the effective values of m that fit the data. (5) Understanding the origin of the displacement decoherence better should lead to efficient methods for computing the observed variance from amorphous materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Efficient and Accurate Pre-Inversion of Equation of State Data

In this report, we evaluate the trade-offs between accuracy and performance in three equation of state interpola- tion strategies- EOSPAC, SpinerEOSDependsRhoT, and SpinerEOSDependsRhoSie-using SESAME tabular data. We also investigate ways to reduce nonlinearity in the data through invertible transformations within the SpinerEOS- DependsRhoSie class with the goal of impacting interpolation accuracy. We include a variety of benchmarking tests that vary the grid densities and how memory is accessed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Microseismic Monitoring at the Farnsworth CO 2 -EOR Field

The Farnsworth Unit in northern Texas is a field site for studying geologic carbon storage during enhanced oil recovery (EOR) using CO 2 . Microseismic monitoring is essential for risk assessment by detecting fluid leakage and fractures. We analyzed borehole microseismic data acquired during CO 2 injection and migration, including data denoising, event detection, event location, magnitude estimation, moment tensor inversion, and stress field inversion. We detected and located two shallow clusters, which occurred during increasing injection pressure. The two shallow clusters were also featured by large b values and tensile cracking moment tensors that are obtained based on a newly developed moment tensor inversion method using single-borehole data. The inverted stress fields at the two clusters showed large deviations from the regional stress field. The results provide evidence for microseismic responses to CO 2 /fluid injection and migration.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Microwave absorption characteristics of the clouds of Venus from Mariner 10 radio occultation

Measurements of received signal strength at S-band (13 cm) and X-band (4.8 cm) wavelengths during the radio occultation of Mariner 10 by Venus on February 5, 1974, are examined in order to study the structure and composition of the absorbing medium. The frequency excursions of the signals are determined and used to obtain the structure of the refractive index in the lower atmosphere. Profiles of excess signal attenuation due to atmospheric scattering and absorption are presented which indicate that the X-band signal experienced much more absorption and was extinguished at about 50 km, while the S-band signal penetrated to about 42 km. The optical-depth data are inverted by means of a discrete inversion method to obtain the absorption coefficient for each band as a function of height, and the resulting absorption-coefficient profiles are compared with the attenuation at vertical incidence modeled from planetary radar and passive microwave observations of Venus. The absorption coefficients at the two wavelengths are employed to estimate the liquid content and composition of the microwave-absorbing cloud particles.

Kliore, A. J.↗

Present-day plate motions

An instantaneous plate-motion model, Relative Motion 2 (RM2), is obtained by inverting a data set comprising 110 spreading rates, 78 transform fault azimuths, and 142 earthquake slip vectors. RM2 is compared with angular velocity vectors which best fit the data along individual plate boundaries and, while the model performs close to optimally in most regions, attention is directed to those regions which are not suitably described by the model. Reasons for the discrepancies between RM2 and observations for the India-Antarctica plate boundary, the Pacific-India plate boundary, and the east-west trending transform fault azimuths observed in the French-American Mid-Ocean Undersea Study area are discussed.

Minster, J. B.↗

Impact experiments in viscous fluid media

Available phase and group velocity data are inverted by a procedure which includes the effects of transverse anisotropy, anelastic dispersion, sphericity, and gravity. The resulting models, for average Earth, average ocean, and oceanic regions divided according to the age of the ocean floor, are quite different from previous results which ignore the above effects. The models show a low-veocity zone with age dependent anisotropy and velocities higher than derived in previous surface wave studied. The correspondence between the anisotropy variation with age and a physical model based on flow aligned olivine is suggestive. For most of the Earth SHSV in the vicinity of the low-velocity zone. Near the East Pacific Rise, however, SVSH at depth, consistent with ascending flow. Anisotropy is as important as temperature in causing radial and lateral variations in velocity. The models have a high velocity nearly isotropic layer at the top of the mantle that thickens with age. This layer defines the LID, or seismic lithosphere. In the Pacific, the LID thickens with age to a maximum thickness of about 50 km. This thickness is comparable to the thickness of the elastic lithosphere. The LID thickness is thinner than derived using isotropic or pseudo-isotropic procedures A new model for Average Earth is obtained which includes a thin LID. This model extends the fit of a P.R.E.M. type model to shorter period surface waves.

Greeley, R.↗

Anisotropic models of the upper mantle

Long period Rayleigh wave and Love wave dispersion data, particularly for oceanic areas, were not simultaneously satisfied by an isotropic structure. Available phase and group velocity data are inverted by a procedure which includes the effects of transverse anisotropy, an elastic dispersion, sphericity, and gravity. The resulting models, for the average Earth, average ocean and oceanic regions divided according to the age of the ocean floor, are quite different from previous results which ignore the above effects. The models show a low velocity zone with age dependent anisotropy and velocities higher than derived in previous surface wave studies. The correspondence between the anisotropy variation with age and a physical model based on flow aligned olivine is suggested.

Regan, J.↗

Anisotropic models of the upper mantle

Long period Rayleigh wave and Love wave dispersion data, particularly for oceanic areas, were not simultaneously satisfied by an isotropic structure. Available phase and group velocity data are inverted by a procedure which includes the effects of transverse anisotropy, an elastic dispersion, sphericity, and gravity. The resulting models, for the average earth, average ocean and oceanic regions divided according to the age of the ocean floor, are quite different from previous results which ignore the above effects. The models show a low velocity zone with age dependent anisotropy and velocities higher than derived in previous surface wave studies. The correspondence between the anisotropy variation with age and a physical model based on flow aligned olivine is suggested.

Regan, J.↗

Inversion of the Solar Rotation Rate Versus Depth and Latitude

Three differential inversion techniques were used to compute the internal solar rotation rate from several sets of n-averaged frequency splittings. An iterative variation of the spectral expansion method; the optimal averaging kernel method; and a piecewise constant constrained least square method were used to invert the data. Each computation was carried out independently. While they present similar trends, each of the solutions differs in detail. A consistent feature in all the inversions is the disappearance of differential rotation below the base of the convection zone. Also, a strong differential signature in the deeper part of the convection zone is present in most of the solutions. A slow decrease of the rotation rate with depth for the equatorial and midlatitude curves is significant in the spectral expansion and the least square results but only marginally apparent in the averaging kernel results.

Korzennik, Sylvain G.↗