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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Many-Body Signatures of Collective Decay in Atomic Chains

Fully inverted atoms placed at exactly the same location synchronize as they deexcite, and light is emitted in a burst (known as “Dicke’s superradiance”). We investigate the role of finite interatomic separation on correlated decay in mesoscopic chains and provide an understanding in terms of collective jump operators. We show that the superradiant burst survives at small distances, despite Hamiltonian dipole-dipole interactions. However, for larger separations, competition between different jump operators leads to dephasing, suppressing superradiance. Collective effects are still significant for arrays with lattice constants of the order of a wavelength, and lead to a photon emission rate that decays nonexponentially in time. We calculate the two-photon correlation function and demonstrate that emission is correlated and directional, as well as sensitive to small changes in the interatomic distance. Furthermore, these features can be measured in current experimental setups, and are robust to realistic imperfections.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Transferable Reinforcement Learning for Smart Homes: Preprint

To harness the great amount of untapped resources at the demand side, smart home technology plays a vital role in solving the "last mile" problem in smart grid. Reinforcement learning (RL), which has demonstrated an outstanding performance in solving many sequential decision-making problems, can be a great candidate to be used in smart home control. For instance, many studies have started investigating the load scheduling problem under dynamic pricing scheme. Based on those, this study aims at providing an affordable solution to encourage a higher smart home adoption rate. Specifically, we investigate combining transfer learning (TL) with RL to reduce the training cost of an optimal RL control policy. Given an optimal policy for a benchmark home, TL can jump-start the RL training of a policy for a new home, which has different appliances and user preferences. Simulation results show that by leveraging TL, RL training converges faster and requires much less computing time for new homes that are similar to the benchmark home. In all, this study proposes a cost-effective approach for training RL control policies for homes at scale, which ultimately reduces the controller's implementation costs, increases the adoption rate of RL controllers, and makes more homes grid-interactive.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION,↗
DOE OSTI2023

CoolPINNs: A physics-informed neural network modeling of active cooling in vascular systems

Emerging technologies like hypersonic aircraft, space exploration vehicles, and batteries avail fluid circulation in embedded microvasculatures for efficient thermal regulation. Modeling is vital during the design and operational phases of these engineered systems. However, many challenges exist in developing a modeling framework. What is lacking is an accurate framework that (i) captures sharp jumps in the thermal flux across complex vasculature layouts, (ii) deals with oblique derivatives (involving tangential and normal components), (iii) handles nonlinearity because of radiative heat transfer, (iv) provides a high-speed forecast for real-time monitoring, and (v) facilitates robust inverse modeling. Here, this paper addresses these challenges by availing the power of physics-informed neural networks (PINNs). We develop a fast, reliable, and accurate Scientific Machine Learning (SciML) framework for vascular-based thermal regulation—called CoolPINNs: a PINNs-based modeling framework for active cooling. The proposed mesh-less framework elegantly overcomes all the mentioned challenges. The significance of the reported research is multi-fold. First, the framework is valuable for real-time monitoring of thermal regulatory systems because of rapid forecasting. Second, researchers can address complex thermoregulation designs since the approach is meshless. Finally, the framework facilitates systematic parameter identification and inverse modeling studies, perhaps the most significant utility of the current framework.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Design and Manufacturing of High Performance, Reduced Charge Heat Exchangers

Air-to-fluid heat exchangers (HXs) play a critical role as the main heat transfer component in Heating, Ventilation, Air-Conditioning, and Refrigeration (HVAC&R) systems. However, their airside thermal resistance significantly inhibits their overall performance. Furthermore, these HXs must be continually more compact to meet the latest refrigerant charge limits to reduce emissions. Recent literature suggests that traditional HX geometries (e.g., round or flat tubes with fins), have reached their limits, and more sophisticated shape- and topology-optimized designs are required to achieve the next jump in performance. This research sheds light on the next generation of air-to-refrigerant HXs and aims to address several practical issues to commercialization such as novelty challenges (improved performance for significant charge reduction; modeling expertise & time investment), manufacturing challenges (non-round tube manufacturing; tube-header integration; product qualification, e.g., burst pressure testing, extreme operational environment, etc.), and operational challenges (flow maldistribution, fouling & wetting, noise & vibration). For example, a >20% improvement on one (or more) HX-level performance metrics (e.g., envelope volume, airside pressure drop, face area, capacity, refrigerant charge, weight, cost, etc.) must be achieved before a HX design is considered for commercialization. We present a new, comprehensive and experimentally validated air-to-refrigerant HX optimization framework with simultaneous thermal-hydraulic performance and mechanical strength considerations for novel, non-round, shape- and topology-optimized tubes capable of optimizing single and two-phase HX designs for any refrigerant choice and performance requirement with significant engineering time savings compared to conventional design practices. The framework was exercised for a wide range of applications and refrigerants, resulting in HXs which achieved greater than 20% improved performance, 20% reductions in size, and 25% reductions in refrigerant charge. To enable non-round tube bundle use in next generation HVAC&R equipment, novel manufacturing techniques were investigated, including the development of conventional manufacturing methods for small diameter, non-round tubes and novel tube-header integration strategies. In total, ten HX prototypes were manufactured, nine using conventional methods directly attributed to this project and one using advanced additive manufacturing methods. The five-year manufacturing feasibility of the proposed HXs was found to have a good outlook. The non-round tube HX simulated performance was validated through comprehensive experimental testing, including nine in-house component-level tests, one independent component-level test at an industry partner laboratory, and in-house system-level tests of using a commercially-available, residential packaged A/C unit which was retrofitted with a non-round tube prototype HX. It was found that HX designs proposed by the new framework can successfully predict experimental thermal-hydraulic performance within ±10-20% the first time with no manual design changes, eliminating the need for time-consuming and expensive prototyping efforts. This work will accelerate design and time to market for next generation HXs while simultaneously facilitating industry transition to new refrigerants at lower charge.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Summary of Previous Mechanical Test Data on ODS Alloys 14YWT and OFRAC up to 1000ºC

The Nanostructured Ferritic Alloys (NFA) 14YWT and OFRAC were developed for future fission and fusion nuclear energy reactors requiring high-temperature mechanical properties that are tolerant to extreme neutron irradiation environments. The NFA contain a high concentration of Ti-, Y- and O-enriched nanoclusters (NC) and ultra-fine grains to achieve high temperature strength and creep properties and high sink strength for trapping irradiation induced point defects to minimize hardening and swelling and transmutated He atoms to form intragranular nano-size bubbles that prevent formation of coarse bubbles on grain boundaries that cause embrittlement. The mechanical properties of 14YWT and OFRAC have been acquired from tensile and creep tests conducted in the past at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The development of 14YWT started in 2000, resulting in the production of numerous heats. Tensile properties were obtained from eleven heats of 14YWT from room temperature to 800ºC. Tensile data for the SM10 heat of 14YWT was extended to 1,000ºC. Initial development of OFRAC occurred in 2016. Tensile tests conducted from room temperature to 800ºC revealed similar properties of OFRAC with those obtained from the newer generation of 14YWT heats. The creep properties of 14YWT-SM10 evaluated using constant stress tensile and load time-to-failure tests at 800ºC showed low minimum creep rates with stresses of 200 and 100 MPa. The single time-to-failure test of 14YWT-SM10 at 800ºC and 100 MPa was terminated after 20,357 hours with no specimen failure and a low creep strain of ~0.24 %. The creep properties of OFRAC determined from strain-rate jump tests at were similar those of 14YWT-SM10. The stress exponent for 14YWT and OFRAC at 800ºC are similar and are consistent with threshold stress behavior. Since both 14YWT and OFRAC are candidates for fuel cladding in future fast reactors, several fabrication studies were recently conducted and have successfully demonstrated that thin wall tubes can be fabricated from 14YWT and OFRAC by cold pilger rolling and high precision tube rolling. The high temperature mechanical properties and feasibility of fabricating thin wall tubes make 14YWT and OFRAC candidates for application as heat pipes in advanced micro-reactors. The purpose of this report is to summarize the previously obtained tensile and creep data at temperatures up to 1000ºC for NFA 14YWT and OFRAC that have been acquired over the past 20 years at ORNL.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Case Study: Seattle Waterfront Networked Microgrid Evaluation - Case Study for Port Electrification Handbook

Many ports and waterfronts are evaluating alternative electrification efforts, including electrification of passenger and vehicle ferries. In Seattle, the Washington State Department of Transportation, in conjunction with Seattle City Light (the local utility) and the Port of Seattle, are working to deploy a hybrid electric ferry and provide charging at Seattle’s Colman dock. As part of this ferry electrification effort, Seattle City Light is considering including a large battery energy storage system (BESS) to help “buffer” the ferry charging. The “buffer” provides energy arbitrage and spreads out the large amount of power needed to recharge the ferry to times when the ferry is out of the dock – rather than one very large peak for 15 minutes, the battery storage allows it to be a smaller power value over a longer duration. This initial BESS concept served as the jumping off point to explore an expanded microgrid concept via a notional test system that incorporates additional distributed energy resources (DER) and infrastructure upgrades to the local distribution infrastructure at the Seattle Waterfront and neighboring Port of Seattle properties. This case study examined the potential for secondary use of the BESS within a networked microgrid during the scenario of a large-scale power outage, such as a natural disaster.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

A statistical approach to analyzing domain dynamics in ferroelectric crystals using X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy

Ferroelectric materials exhibit strong electromechanical coupling, largely influenced by their domain structures. Numerous microstructural studies indicate that smaller domains with higher domain wall density generally enhance domain wall motion, although some inconsistencies have been reported. In this work, we use X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy (XPCS) to probe dynamic response in Pb(Mg 1/3 Nb 2/3 )O 3 -29PbTiO 3 (PMN-29PT) single crystals under applied electric fields. We introduce a two-field correlation approach, adapted from conventional two-time correlation to quantify dynamics. Statistical analysis reveals that both [001]-oriented direct current (DC) and alternating current (AC) poled samples show Poisson-like behavior within specific electric field regions. The DC-poled samples exhibit more frequent domain wall jump events but with smaller amount of decorrelation per jump event, whereas the AC-poled samples show fewer jump events with larger decorrelation per jump event. This observation aligns with the prevalence of 109° domain walls in the AC-poled samples, which contribute to more domain wall motion. These findings provide experimental evidence of collective domain wall motion and establish a direct connection between mesoscale dynamics and electromechanical response.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lytic archaeal viruses infect abundant primary producers in Earth’s crust

The continental subsurface houses a major portion of life’s abundance and diversity, yet little is known about viruses infecting microbes that reside there. Here, we use a combination of metagenomics and virus-targeted direct-geneFISH (virusFISH) to show that highly abundant carbon-fixing organisms of the uncultivated genus Candidatus Altiarchaeum are frequent targets of previously unrecognized viruses in the deep subsurface. Analysis of CRISPR spacer matches display resistances of Ca. Altiarchaea against eight predicted viral clades, which show genomic relatedness across continents but little similarity to previously identified viruses. Based on metagenomic information, we tag and image a putatively viral genome rich in protospacers using fluorescence microscopy. VirusFISH reveals a lytic lifestyle of the respective virus and challenges previous predictions that lysogeny prevails as the dominant viral lifestyle in the subsurface. CRISPR development over time and imaging of 18 samples from one subsurface ecosystem suggest a sophisticated interplay of viral diversification and adapting CRISPR-mediated resistances of Ca. Altiarchaeum. We conclude that infections of primary producers with lytic viruses followed by cell lysis potentially jump-start heterotrophic carbon cycling in these subsurface ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Molecular mechanisms of thickness-dependent water desalination in polyamide reverse-osmosis membranes

Here, using non-equilibrium molecular simulations, we systematically elaborate the relationships among synthesis (membrane's thickness and morphology), atomic-scale transport mechanism, and separation performance (permeability and selectivity) for 3D-printed polyamide (PA) membranes. Results indicated that water diffusion, swelling ratio, water flux, and water permeance proportionally decrease with increasing membrane thickness (4.0–32.5 nm). PA membranes with different thicknesses can achieve almost 100% salt rejection over the simulation time. Importantly, water permeability exponentially decreases with increasing thickness, and 15 nm is identified as the critical membrane thickness for efficient water transport. The discontinuous water-available space spreads all over PA membranes with thicknesses greater than 5 nm, allowing water molecules to jump by way of the temporary open-and-close pores. However, the connected water-useable space exists in PA membranes with thicknesses below 5 nm, offering the continuous channels to dominate water transport. More significantly, pore distribution is more homogeneous as the thickness increases. The applied high pressures can lead to membrane compaction during reverse osmosis and the thicker membranes show a lower compression ratio. In short, these investigations provide molecular insights for effectively designing and manufacturing PA membranes for water desalination and treatment at the molecular level.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

BioCARS: Synchrotron facility for probing structural dynamics of biological macromolecules

A major goal in biomedical science is to move beyond static images of proteins and other biological macromolecules to the internal dynamics underlying their function. This level of study is necessary to understand how these molecules work and to engineer new functions and modulators of function. Stemming from a visionary commitment to this problem by Keith Moffat decades ago, a community of structural biologists has now enabled a set of x-ray scattering technologies for observing intramolecular dynamics in biological macromolecules at atomic resolution and over the broad range of timescales over which motions are functionally relevant. Many of these techniques are provided by BioCARS, a cutting-edge synchrotron radiation facility built under Moffat leadership and located at the Advanced Photon Source at Argonne National Laboratory. BioCARS enables experimental studies of molecular dynamics with time resolutions spanning from 100 ps to seconds and provides both time-resolved x-ray crystallography and small- and wide-angle x-ray scattering. Structural changes can be initiated by several methods—UV/Vis pumping with tunable picosecond and nanosecond laser pulses, substrate diffusion, and global perturbations, such as electric field and temperature jumps. Studies of dynamics typically involve subtle perturbations to molecular structures, requiring specialized computational techniques for data processing and interpretation. In this review, we present the challenges in experimental macromolecular dynamics and describe the current state of experimental capabilities at this facility. As Moffat imagined years ago, BioCARS is now positioned to catalyze the scientific community to make fundamental advances in understanding proteins and other complex biological macromolecules.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Prediction of vacancy defect diffusion paths in high entropy alloys via machine learning on molecular dynamics data

Identifying the diffusion path of point defects is a critical step in understanding their evolution and the mechanisms of related phenomena. Defect diffusion occurs at small length and time scales, with impacts on material properties that may continue to evolve over ns to μs, ms, and the continuum scale (s, min, etc., and cm, m, etc.). The time scale accessible to molecular dynamics (MD) simulations is limited by small step sizes, typically in the fs range. Thus, surrogate models of MD simulations through machine learning (ML)-based algorithms are of great interest, especially for complex systems such as high entropy alloys (HEAs). In this work, dynamics governing vacancy migration in HEA were approximated with graph convolutional network (GCN) models as ansatzes for kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) rate catalogs. Network design considered that diffusion in crystalline solids generally depends on interactions between defects and their immediate neighbor atoms. Graphs represented the vacancy surroundings, MD-generated trajectories provided training and comparison datasets, and unsupervised GCN models approximated interatomic dynamics governing vacancy migration in HEAs as ansatzes for KMC. A proof-of-concept model trained on MD data for the Fe, Ni, Cr, Co, and Cu HEA environment was used with two different neighbor interactions to assess the feasibility of training a GCN to predict vacancy defect transition rates in the HEA environment. The resulting setup rapidly generated MD-formatted synthetic trajectories based on dynamics learned from the MD training set, with a time acceleration of roughly two orders of magnitude and a similar diffusion coefficient to MD observations. Additionally, Nudged Elastic Band (NEB) calculations were performed on randomly generated FeNiCrCoCu HEA structures to determine vacancy migration barriers across nearest-neighbor sites. Transition probabilities for each jump, categorized by atomic type, were extracted from these calculations. NEB-based and GCN-based approaches led to similar outcomes.

Reimer, C↗
DOE OSTI2021

Yang-Lee edge singularity triggered entanglement transition

Here we show that a class of $\mathscr{PT}$ symmetric non-Hermitian Hamiltonians realizing the Yang-Lee edge singularity exhibits an entanglement transition in the long-time steady state evolved under the Hamiltonian. Such a transition is induced by a level crossing triggered by the critical point associated with the Yang-Lee singularity and hence is first order in nature. At the transition, the entanglement entropy of the steady state jumps discontinuously from a volume-law to an area-law scaling. We exemplify this mechanism using a one-dimensional transverse field Ising model with additional imaginary fields, as well as the spin-1 Blume-Capel model and the three-state Potts model. We further make a connection to the forced-measurement induced entanglement transition in a Floquet nonunitary circuit subject to continuous measurements followed by post-selections. Our results demonstrate a new mechanism for entanglement transitions in non-Hermitian systems harboring a critical point.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

MPC4CLR (Model-Predictive-Control-for-Critical-Load-Restoration-in-Power-Distribution-Systems) [SWR-22-24]

Model predictive control (MPC) is a system or process control technique for making decisions under uncertainty via rolling look-ahead optimizations at each control step where only the current step decisions are applied, and the rest are discarded. In this work, we developed an MPC for a critical load restoration (CLR) in power distribution systems to recover system service (electricity delivery) following an extreme event-triggered substation outage. The method considers the problem of controlling distributed energy resources (DERs) of the distribution system with the objective of achieving maximum load pick up while satisfying distribution network flow and voltage constraints. A linearized optimal power flow (OPF) model is employed to represent the physics of the network. The problem formulation is augmented with a ramping (up) reserve product for the DERs to ensure improved and upward monotonic load restoration as time evolves. Simulation analysis and performance tests are performed using a modified IEEE 13-bus test feeder integrated with wind, solar, microturbine, and energy storage battery. The software is developed using various software packages in Julia and Python. The MPC model is implemented using the JuMP optimization language in Julia while the data analytics including renewable generation and load demand forecasts, running the MPC simulation and visualizations is performed in Python.

Eseye, Abinet Tesfaye↗
DOE OSTI2023

Photo-actuators via epitaxial growth of microcrystal arrays in polymer membranes

Photomechanical crystals composed of three-dimensionally ordered and densely packed photochromes hold promise for high-performance photochemical actuators. However, bulk crystals with high structural ordering are severely limited in their flexibility, resulting in poor processibility and a tendency to fragment upon light exposure, while previous nano- or microcrystalline composites have lacked global alignment. Here we demonstrate a photon-fuelled macroscopic actuator consisting of diarylethene microcrystals in a polyethylene terephthalate host matrix. These microcrystals survive large deformations and show a high degree of three-dimensional ordering dictated by the anisotropic polyethylene terephthalate, which critically also has a similar stiffness. Overall, these ordered and compliant composites exhibit rapid response times, sustain a performance of over at least hundreds of cycles and generate work densities exceeding those of single crystals. In conclusion, our composites represent the state-of-the-art for photochemical actuators and enable properties unattainable by single crystals, such as controllable, reversible and abrupt jumping (photosalient behaviour).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Spatio-temporal electric field distributions in an atmospheric plasma jet impinging on a microchannel array surface

The electric field distribution in the ionization waves (IWs) propagating over a microchannel array dielectric surface, with the channels either empty or filled with distilled water, is measured by ps electric field induced second harmonic generation. The surface IW is initiated by the atmospheric pressure N 2 –Ar plasma jet impinging on the surface vertically and powered by ns pulse discharge bursts. The results show that the electric field inside the microchannels, specifically its horizontal component, is enhanced by up to a factor of 2. The field enhancement region is localized within the channels. The vertical electric field inside the channels lags in time compared to the field measured at the ridges, indicating the transient reversal of the IW propagation direction across the channels (toward the jet). This is consistent with the phase-locked plasma emission images and confirmed by the kinetic modeling predictions, which show that the IW ‘jumps’ over the empty channels and propagates into the channels only after the jump between the adjacent ridges. When the channels are filled with water, the wave speed increases by up to 50%, due to the higher effective dielectric constant of the surface. No evidence of a significant electric field enhancement near the dielectric surface (ceramic or water) has been detected, within the spatial resolution of the present diagnostic, ~100 μ m.

plasmas and liquids↗
DOE OSTI2021

Specific heat and gap structure of a nematic superconductor: Application to FeSe

We report the results of our in-depth analysis of spectroscopic and thermodynamic properties of a multiorbital metal, like FeSe, which first develops a nematic order and then undergoes a transition into a superconducting state, which coexists with nematicity. We analyze the angular dependence of the gap function and specific heat C v (T) of such a nematic superconductor. We specifically address three issues: (i) the angular dependence of the gap in light of the competition between the nematicity-induced s - d mixture and the orbital transmutation of low-energy excitations in the nematic state, (ii) the effect of nematicity on the magnitude of the jump of the specific heat C v (T) at T c and the temperature dependence of C v (T) below T c , and (iii) a potential transition at T c1 < T c from an s + d state to an s + e iη d state that breaks time-reversal symmetry. We consider two scenarios for a nematic order: scenario A, in which this order develops between d xz and d yz orbitals on hole and electron pockets, and scenario B, in which there is an additional component of the nematic order for d xy fermions on the two electron pockets.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Symmetry Determining Equations of the Rankine-Hugoniot Equations for Variable Velocity Shock Waves

The “constant velocity piston” problem (Fig. 1), also known as the “piston problem,” is a standard model for a one dimensional, in our case linear, symmetric shock wave moving through an inviscid, perfect gas. The model can be divided into two regions - a perturbed section on the left and an unperturbed section on the right - by a moving shock wave moving left to right. Both the perturbed and unperturbed sections, i.e. the shocked and unshocked regions, respectively, obey the Eulerian conservation equations; however, at the exact location of the shock, there is a mathematical discontinuity not satisfied by the Euler equations. To ensure continuity and conservation of certain quantities when crossing between the unshocked and shocked regions, we evoke a series of equations derived from the Eulerian conservation equations, called the Rankine-Hugoniot equations, or “jump” equations as it is often referred to in the literature on the topic. The classical constant-velocity piston problem assumes the piston features a constant driving velocity (among many other willing suspensions of belief required in the pursuit of a first principles equation model); consequent to this assumption is a constant-velocity shock and a constant-velocity shocked flow state. However, using Lie Group Theory (LGT), also known as symmetry analysis, we can attempt to reinterpret the model with a shock wave of variable velocity in time and space. An extension of the model in this way opens up the possibility for obtaining new analytical solutions to the piston problem for certain shock velocity models. In this report, we use LGT to derive the symmetry determining equations (SDEs), whose solutions are Lie groups, which permit analytical solutions. In the future, we can then use the SDEs to define constraint equations on the shock velocity model and what the successive solutions to the Euler equations might be based off such constraints. This report is structured as follows: Section 2 provides a brief derivation of the Rankine-Hugoniot (“jump”) equations; Section 3 gives an overview of Lie group theory; Section 4 derives the SDEs of the jump equations; Section 5 derives the Euler conservation equations for fluids; and Section 6 presents concluding remarks and opportunities for future studies.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Accuracy of hourly energy predictions for demand flexibility applications

Decarbonization goals in the United States electricity sector are increasing the levels of renewable energy generation in the electricity supply system, and are driving increased attention to building electrification, which will increase the magnitude and shift the timing of the electricity system peak. These changes are motivating new approaches to coordinate building electricity demand with low-carbon renewable generation, elevating the importance of demand flexibility (DF) in buildings and the need to quantify the temporal impacts of DF. In this paper, we first characterize the hourly predictive accuracy of six commonly used baseline models in an application context of quantifying building-level load shift. Our analysis revealed insights such as hours of the day (afternoons), periods of the week (weekends), and seasons (summer) that were predicted with more accuracy than other time periods. In addition, the analysis showed tendencies toward overprediction or underprediction of load. Secondly, we provide the first published investigation of baseline erosion from repeated dispatch of building load shifting. We observed that as the baseline period is pushed back further from the prediction day, the distribution of errors across baseline model predictions increases, with notable inflection points near the three-week erosion point for two of the three models.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗