Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “kriging”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5

Vibroacoustic Tailoring of a Rod-Stiffened Composite Fuselage Panel with Multidisciplinary Considerations

An efficient multi-objective design tailoring procedure seeking to improve the vibroacoustic performance of a fuselage panel while maintaining or reducing weight is presented. The structure considered is the pultruded rod stitched efficient unitized structure, a highly integrated composite structure concept designed for a noncylindrical, next-generation flight vehicle fuselage. Modifications to a baseline design are evaluated within a six-parameter design space including spacing, flange width, and web height for both frame and stringer substructure components. The change in sound power radiation attributed to a design change is predicted using finite-element models sized and meshed for analyses in the 500 Hz, 1 kHz, and 2 kHz octave bands. Three design studies are carried out in parallel while considering a diffuse acoustic field excitation and two types of turbulent boundary-layer excitation. Kriging surrogate models are used to reduce the computational costs of resolving the vibroacoustic and weight objective Pareto fronts. The resulting Pareto optimal designs are then evaluated under a static pressurization ultimate load to assess structural strength and stability. Results suggest that choosing alternative configurations within the considered design space can reduce weight and improve vibroacoustic performance without compromising strength and stability of the structure under the static load condition considered, but the tradeoffs are significantly influenced by the spatial characteristics of the assumed excitation field.

Allen, Albert R.↗

Optimal Reference Strain Structure for Studying Dynamic Responses of Flexible Rockets

In the proposed paper, the optimal design of reference strain structures (RSS) will be performed targeting for the accurate observation of the dynamic bending and torsion deformation of a flexible rocket. It will provide the detailed description of the finite-element (FE) model of a notional flexible rocket created in MSC.Patran. The RSS will be attached longitudinally along the side of the rocket and to track the deformation of the thin-walled structure under external loads. An integrated surrogate-based multi-objective optimization approach will be developed to find the optimal design of the RSS using the FE model. The Kriging method will be used to construct the surrogate model. For the data sampling and the performance evaluation, static/transient analyses will be performed with MSC.Natran/Patran. The multi-objective optimization will be solved with NSGA-II to minimize the difference between the strains of the launch vehicle and RSS. Finally, the performance of the optimal RSS will be evaluated by checking its strain-tracking capability in different numerical simulations of the flexible rocket.

finite-element (FE)↗

Design of Distributed Mail-Slot Propulsion System on a Hybrid Wingbody Aircraft

This paper deals with designing a thrust distribution strategy when a Turboelectric Distributed Propulsion (TeDP) system of 16 embedded propulsors is installed on an aerodynamically optimized hybrid wing-body configuration. This HWB previously designed to satisfy conditions of trim, longitudinally static stability and specific cargo space is employed as the baseline configuration for the current study of seeking an optimal propulsion/power system. According to the nature of the entrance flow condition for each distributed propulsion passage in hybrid wing-body aircraft, the ingested boundary layer thickness differs and results in different propulsive reaction. An optimal distribution of thrust and power output is determined by how the system utilizes the propulsive characteristics of each passage. The design space and the number of design variables are selected and described accordingly. An actuator disk model is employed to model thrust generation and shaft power from the propulsor. To carry out the optimization of the propulsion/power system on a computationally expensive CFD model, a Kriging method in conjunction with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) is applied. Throughout the design process, the propulsion performances of the sampled propulsion/power system are analyzed and compared to those of a clean flow engine. The performance metrics includes mass flow rate, fan pressure ratio besides the thrust and shaft power. Minimization of total shaft power from the distributed engine is performed at multiple thrust levels. The benefit of boundary layer ingestion propulsion system is quantified via comparison of thrust equivalent, shaft power and mass flow equivalent clean flow engines with CFD based system design.

Hybrid Wingbody↗

New Approach to Characterize CO2 and CH4 Emissions over Sacramento, California Using an Airborne Aircraft Measurement

Emission fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) over Sacramento, California, USA, are estimated using an aircraft equipped with a cavity ring-down greenhouse gas sensor through the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX). To better quantify the emission fluxes over the entire city and two small point sources within the area, we designed flights in a cylindrical pattern and computed the emission fluxes from 9 flights over all seasons using the Kriging method based on Gausss divergence theorem. The concentrations at the downwind side of Sacramento show somewhat persistent patterns among the 9 flights, but the magnitudes and locations of the fluxes vary depending on the individual weather conditions and seasonality on a given flight day. The net emission fluxes tend to be smaller in summer (July) than winter (November). Both trace gas mixing ratios as well as the wind speed and direction show high spatial variability both horizontally and vertically. The local maximum emission fluxes over a landfill and a rice field measured on July 29, 2015, were 2-3 times lower than the maximum measured over the entire city. These low emission fluxes suggest that not only the local source but also the transport of greenhouse gases due to diurnal and seasonal variation in winds have a strong effect on the CO2 and CH4 flux estimation of the both local emissions and city-size emissions. Our results highlight that the aircraft-based approach is effective and useful for capturing city-size emission fluxes and estimating the greenhouse gas emissions and its sources.

airborne↗

Quantification of CO2 and CH4 emissions over Sacramento, California, based on divergence theorem using aircraft measurements

Emission estimates of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) and the meteorological factors affecting them are investigated over Sacramento, California, using an aircraft equipped with a cavity ring-down greenhouse gas sensor as part of the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX) project. To better constrain the emission fluxes, we designed flights in a cylindrical pattern and computed the emission fluxes from two flights using a kriging method and Gauss’s divergence theorem. Differences in wind treatment and assumptions about background concentrations affect the emission estimates by a factor of 1.5 to 7. The uncertainty is also impacted by meteorological conditions and distance from the emission sources. The vertical layer averaging affects the flux estimate, but the choice of raw wind or mass-balanced wind is more important than the thickness of the vertical averaging for massbalanced wind for both urban and local scales. The importance of vertical mass transfer for flux estimates is examined, and the difference in the total emission estimate with and without vertical mass transfer is found to be small, especially at the local scale. The total flux estimates accounting for the entire circumference are larger than those based solely on measurements made in the downwind region. This indicates that a closed-shape flight profile can better contain total emissions relative to a one-sided curtain flight because most cities have more than one point source and wind direction can change with time and altitude. To reduce the uncertainty of the emission estimate, it is important that the sampling strategy account not only for known source locations but also possible unidentified sources around the city. Our results highlight that aircraft-based measurements using a closed-shape flight pattern are an efficient and useful strategy for identifying emission sources and estimating local- and city-scale greenhouse gas emission fluxes.

Ju-Mee Ryoo↗

Multi-Fidelity Heating Prediction of Adaptable, Deployable Entry Placement Technology Vehicles

The objective of this work was to investigate a multi-fidelity modeling approach to accurately and efficiently predict the laminar and turbulent convective heating on adaptable, deployable entry placement technology vehicles in Mars entry. A previously developed co-Kriging based multi-fidelity modeling approach was used to model the laminar and turbulent convective heat fluxes at several surface locations along the vehicle, including the rib sections. The laminar convective heat flux multi-fidelity model was found to have a mean convective heat rate error of approximately 3% when compared to high-fidelity CFD simulations. The turbulent convective heat flux multi-fidelity model was found to have a mean convective heat rate error of approximately 8% when compared to high-fidelity CFD simulations. Compared to a single fidelity model, the multi-fidelity model required approximately one-third the number of high-fidelity model evaluations to obtain the same accuracy level. The computational cost of evaluating the multi-fidelity model was approximately five orders of magnitude less than one high-fidelity model simulation.

Mario Santos↗

The INSTEP Monitoring Network: Merging High-and-Low Cost Measurements to Characterize California Wildfires

Despite challenges with data quality and scope, low-cost sensor networks have skyrocketed in popularity over the last 15 years, making air quality data available on refined spatial scales. More recently, studies have leveraged both high and low-quality instruments to create stronger “hybrid” models, with most studies focusing on particulate matter. Low-cost measurements typically represent ground-level emissions only, providing context for human health issues from climate change-driven events such as wildfires. Since low-cost sensors’ capabilities are localized, daily events and microclimates tend to dominate the data rather than larger regional or atmospheric trends. Likewise, their low cost explains their high uncertainty. In contrast, some regulatory-grade instruments produce column measurements as well, providing reliable information on a broader scope. To bridge this gap while expanding into gas-phase measurements, we deployed 12 air quality sensor packages in California, USA during the 2022 wildfire season. These INSTEP (Inexpensive Network Sensor Technology Exploring Pollution) monitors measure carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and several hydrocarbons including methane (CH4) and formaldehyde (HCHO). Half of the monitors were co-located with remote sensing spectrometers: NASA Pandora and Total Column Carbon Observing Network (TCCON). The overlap in pollutants includes NO2, O3, and HCHO between the INSTEP monitors and the Pandora column measurements. TCCON covers column CO, CO2, and CH4, rounding out our comparison. Most of the monitors were distributed throughout the San Francisco Bay area, and an additional three were located within 100 km of Los Angeles. The sites ranged in geographic and population characteristics, including desert, mountainous, coastal, and urban locations. Since varying environmental conditions such as temperature and pressure are known to challenge sensor performance, we will apply newer sensor “calibration” techniques meant to combat this. We will normalize our sensor signals by z-scoring them prior to applying a single calibration model in the form of multivariate linear regression or an artificial neural network. While this technique has been validated for the hydrocarbon and ozone sensor types (metal oxide), it has not yet been tested on electrochemical and non-dispersive infrared sensors, which are also used in the INSTEP monitors. This will serve as a test to see if this normalization technique – or another – is most effective in accounting for environmental differences among sensors. Related data analysis efforts have found success with a variety of geospatial analysis techniques, including weighted network models in which high-quality instruments are given higher weights than their low-cost counterparts. Our preliminary analysis will focus on kriging, which uses a Gaussian algorithm to assign weights, providing estimated pollution levels at locations between monitors. Smoke trajectory and evolution will also be considered using both measurement types. We also aim to baseline subtract our emission estimates from each region to determine which portion of emissions are regional and local, further characterizing burn differences in northern and southern California fires. Future directions include using INSTEP jointly with TEMPO satellite data, and mobile deployments on aircraft and uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAV).

Low-cost sensors↗

Sampling of Space-Based Observations of XCO2 Associated With Biomass Burning Events

- The OCO-2 Level 3 assimilation product fills in gaps where OCO-2 does not have observations. - Although the Level 3 clearly shows the increased CO2 over the Amazon associated with the September 2017 biomass burning event, the total amount of CO2 may be underestimated because of a sampling bias. - The TCCON observations match fairly well with the OCO-2 observations and can be used to estimate the accuracy of the OCO observations and the temporal sampling bias. However, since it is a remotely sensed product, it may suffer the same sampling biases associated with biomass burning events as OCO-2. - Although aircraft data show that there is a significant variation in xCO2 with altitude, they suggest the OCO-2 fused products created by kriging may be better than the assimilated product at detecting large deviations from the average state on daily and regional scales.

Thomas J. Hearty, III↗

Efficient Global Optimization with Gradient Finish for Design Under Uncertainty

The Efficient Global Optimization (EGO) algorithm is extended to include a gradient-descent-based finish upon reaching a threshold value of the expected improvement function. Emphasis is placed on efficient evaluation of local gradients using Kriging models during the gradient-based finish to enable application to design under uncertainty (DUU) problems. The modified algorithm is applied to both the well-known Rosenbrock function and a more challenging hypersonic inlet design under uncertainty problem. Results demonstrate improvement in locating the global optimum compared to the classical implementation of EGO, as well as a reduced number of true function evaluations compared to pure gradient-based algorithms. For the Rosenbrock function, a global optimum is returned using an average of 12% fewer function calls than a gradient-based optimizer with comparable tolerances. For the design under uncertainty problem, a global optimum is found using an average of 75% fewer function calls than a gradient-based optimizer. Global Pareto fronts of multiobjective DUU problems are obtained at little additional cost after a single optimization is complete.

Optimization↗

Sampling Biases of Space-Based Observations of XCO2 Associated With South American Biomass Burning Events During 2017-2020

- We examine time series of OCO-2 xCO 2 observations coincident with other remotely sensed and in-situ observations to better understand external sampling effects. - The OCO-2 Level 3 assimilation product fills in gaps where OCO-2 does not have observations. - Although the Level 3 clearly shows the increased CO 2 over the Amazon associated with the September 2017 biomass burning event, the total amount of CO 2 may be underestimated because of a sampling bias. - Since TCCON is also a remotely sensed product, it may suffer the same sampling biases associated with biomass burning events as OCO-2. - Aircraft data show that there is significant variation in xCO 2 with altitude. - The OCO-2 fused products created by kriging may be better than the assimilated product at detecting deviations from the average state.

OCO↗

PRODEM: An Annual Series of Summer DEMs (2019 through 2022) of the Marginal Areas of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Surface topography across the marginal zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet is constantly evolving in response to changing weather, season, climate, and ice dynamics. However, current digital elevation models (DEMs) for the ice sheet are usually based on data from a multi-year period, thus obscuring these changes over time. Here we present four 500 m resolution summer DEMs (PRODEMs) of the Greenland Ice Sheet marginal zone for 2019 through 2022. The PRODEMs cover the marginal zone from the ice edge to 50 km inland, hence capturing all Greenland outlet glaciers. Each PRODEM is based on data fusion of CryoSat-2 radar altimetry and ICESat-2 laser altimetry using regionally varying kriging of elevation anomalies relative to ArcticDEM. The PRODEMs are validated using leave-one-out cross-validation, and PRODEM19 is further validated against an external data set, showcasing their ability to correctly represent surface elevations within the associated spatially varying prediction uncertainties. We observe a general lowering of surface elevations during the 4-year PRODEM period, but the spatial pattern of change is highly complex and with annual changes superimposed. The PRODEMs enable detailed studies of the marginal ice sheet elevation changes. With their high spatio-temporal resolution, the PRODEMs will be of value to a wide range of researchers and users studying ice sheet dynamics and monitoring how the ice sheet responds to changing environmental conditions. PRODEMs from summer 2019 through 2022 are available at https://doi.org/10.22008/FK2/52WWHG (Winstrup, 2024), and we plan to annually update the product henceforth.

Digital Elevation Models↗

Characterization of Coal Refuse Sites in West Virginia: Stream Loss, Volume Estimation, and Land Cover Analysis for Restoration Feasibility

Coal refuse disposal across Appalachia has resulted in widespread environmental degradation, including stream burial, landscape destabilization, and long-term hydrologic impacts. This study provides a GIS-based spatial characterization of 623 coal refuse sites in West Virginia, evaluating their potential for ecological and economic restoration. Stream loss was quantified through digitization of historic topographic maps, revealing over 194,500 meters of historically present streams lost, with 105,000 meters directly buried beneath refuse piles. Volume estimation using empirical Bayesian kriging and modern LiDAR surfaces indicated approximately 1.96 billion cubic meters of deposited refuse. Land cover analysis based on NAIP-derived classification showed that 48% of the total site area was forested, while 15% remained barren. These results highlight not only the environmental footprint of legacy refuse deposits but also their potential for restoration through stream daylighting and beneficial reuse. Emerging opportunities, including rare earth element recovery and mitigation banking, may offer economic incentives to facilitate reclamation. This work establishes a spatial framework to prioritize refuse sites for restoration, balancing ecological uplift with feasible material management strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

MFNets: data efficient all-at-once learning of multifidelity surrogates as directed networks of information sources

We present an approach for constructing a surrogate from ensembles of information sources of varying cost and accuracy. The multifidelity surrogate encodes connections between information sources as a directed acyclic graph, and is trained via gradient-based minimization of a nonlinear least squares objective. While the vast majority of state-of-the-art assumes hierarchical connections between information sources, our approach works with flexibly structured information sources that may not admit a strict hierarchy. The formulation has two advantages: (1) increased data efficiency due to parsimonious multifidelity networks that can be tailored to the application; and (2) no constraints on the training data—we can combine noisy, non-nested evaluations of the information sources. Finally, numerical examples ranging from synthetic to physics-based computational mechanics simulations indicate the error in our approach can be orders-of-magnitude smaller, particularly in the low-data regime, than single-fidelity and hierarchical multifidelity approaches.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Reduced-Order Modeling Method for Phase-Change Thermal Energy Storage Heat Exchangers

Thermal energy storage can facilitate the effective utilization of renewable energy. To speed up the design process of thermal energy storage devices, it is critical to develop fast and accurate modeling methods for phase change material embedded heat exchangers (PCM HXs). This study developed and compared two approximation-assisted reduced-order PCM HX models for the simulation of thermal storage components and systems, which were verified against a validated finite-volume model. They are a pure black-box model, and a grey-box model based on the Number of Transfer Units (or effectiveness-NTU) approach. We used the reduced-order models to predict the performance of standalone PCM HX for 1000 cases with different fluid inlet conditions and HX designs. We also integrated the models with a vapor compression system to predict the compressor energy consumption and total charging time under various conditions. The results show that overall, the black-box model gave more accurate results than the grey-box model. On average, the mean absolute deviation in the PCM HX fluid outlet temperature was 0.05 K and 0.1 K for the black-box model and grey-box model, respectively. The grey-box model gave larger temperature deviation toward the end of the phase change process, due to the simplified two-node PCM representation. On the system level, the mean absolute deviation in compressor energy consumption was 0.2% and 0.3% for the black-box model and grey-box model, respectively. Their mean absolute deviation in total charging time was 1.1% and 2.6%, respectively. In terms of computation efficiency, the system simulation speedup ratio gained by using the reduced-order models was 11 to 57. System simulation time was decreased from an average of 1465 s to an average of 59 s. This shows that the proposed reduced-order modeling methods can be used to predict system performance of PCM HXs with less than 3% accuracy penalty, and 25 times less computational time than finite-volume models, enabling faster design and evaluation of PCM thermal storage devices.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Geostatistical interpolation of streambed hydrologic attributes with addition of left censored data and anisotropy

Spatial geostatistical interpolation of point measurements of streambed attributes in the hyporheic zone may be constrained by the streambed anisotropy, and data density and spatial distribution may significantly impact the results. Spatial clustering and low spatial data density can be caused by bedrock outcropping at the streambed limiting installation of in-stream piezometers. This study examines parameter error variability of the geostatistical interpolation using anisotropic interpolation methods and increasing the data density by adding left censored values (i.e., data below measurement limit) to locations where measurements were limited by exposed bedrock lining the streambed. The reduction in relative standard error of the interpolation was determined for the spatial distributions of streambed attributes including hydraulic conductivity, seepage flux, and mercury solute flux measured in two different years along a study reach in East Fork Poplar Creek, Tennessee, USA. Here, two methods to impute the left censored values were compared including the conventional half the detection limit substitution method, and the Stochastic Approximation of Expectation-Maximization (SAEM) algorithm, which both had comparable results. Imputing left censored data increased the data density to recommended ranges, reduced data clustering, increased the spatial dependence for some attributes, and reduced the standard error for each of the three attributes. For the reach considered herein, addition of the left censored values resulted in a larger error reduction than the consideration of anisotropy within the interpolation, which confirms the benefit of data addition to increase data density within data-limited river corridors.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

JetGP: A derivative enhanced Gaussian process library

Derivative enhanced Gaussian Processes (DEGPs) can significantly improve surrogate model accuracy over standard Gaussian Process (GP) formulations by incorporating derivative information. However, standard implementations scale poorly with dimension, limiting their use in high dimensional engineering problems. JetGP is a Python framework that unifies existing derivative enhanced GP methodologies into a single library and extends them to support arbitrary order derivative information. The library implements four complementary formulations: standard derivative enhanced Gaussian Processes (DEGP), directional DEGP (DDEGP), generalized directional DEGP (GDDEGP), and weighted DEGP (WDEGP). By unifying these approaches in a consistent interface with robust numerical implementations, JetGP enables practitioners to balance predictive accuracy and computational efficiency for high dimensional optimization, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis in engineering design.

Derivative enhanced Gaussian process↗

MFNets: Multifidelity data-driven networks for Bayesian learning and prediction

This paper presents a multifidelity uncertainty quantification framework called MFNets. We seek to address three existing challenges that arise when experimental and simulation data from different sources are used to enhance statistical estimation and prediction with quantified uncertainty. Specifically, we demonstrate that MFNets can (1) fuse heterogeneous data sources arising from simulations with different parameterizations, e.g simulation models with different uncertain parameters or data sets collected under different environmental conditions; (2) encode known relationships among data sources to reduce data requirements; and (3) improve the robustness of existing multi-fidelity approaches to corrupted data. MFNets construct a network of latent variables (LVs) to facilitate the fusion of data from an ensemble of sources of varying credibility and cost. These LVs are posited as explanatory variables that provide the source of correlation in the observed data. Furthermore, MFNets provide a way to encode prior physical knowledge to enable efficient estimation of statistics and/or construction of surrogates via conditional independence relations on the LVs. We highlight the utility of our framework with a number of theoretical results which assess the quality of the posterior mean as a frequentist estimator and compare it to standard sampling approaches that use single fidelity, multilevel, and control variate Monte Carlo estimators. We also use the proposed framework to derive the Monte Carlo-based control variate estimator entirely from the use of Bayes rule and linear-Gaussian models -- to our knowledge the first such derivation. Finally, we demonstrate the ability to work with different uncertain parameters across different models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

OpenMDAO: Framework for Flexible Multidisciplinary Design, Analysis and Optimization Methods

The OpenMDAO project is underway at NASA to develop a framework which simplifies the implementation of state-of-the-art tools and methods for multidisciplinary design, analysis and optimization. Foremost, OpenMDAO has been designed to handle variable problem formulations, encourage reconfigurability, and promote model reuse. This work demonstrates the concept of iteration hierarchies in OpenMDAO to achieve a flexible environment for supporting advanced optimization methods which include adaptive sampling and surrogate modeling techniques. In this effort, two efficient global optimization methods were applied to solve a constrained, single-objective and constrained, multiobjective version of a joint aircraft/engine sizing problem. The aircraft model, NASA's nextgeneration advanced single-aisle civil transport, is being studied as part of the Subsonic Fixed Wing project to help meet simultaneous program goals for reduced fuel burn, emissions, and noise. This analysis serves as a realistic test problem to demonstrate the flexibility and reconfigurability offered by OpenMDAO.

Kriging↗