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NASA NTRS1977

Failure detection by pilots during automatic landing - Models and experiments

A model is proposed to describe the pilot as a monitor of automatic landing systems. The failures treated are equivalent to the addition of a dynamic change in the mean of the observation process. The failure detection model of the pilot consists of two stages: a linear estimator (Kalman filter) and a decision mechanism based on sequential analysis. The filter equations are derived from a simplified version of the linearized dynamics of the airplane and the control loop. The perceptual observation noise is modified to include the effects of allocation of attention among the several instruments. The final result is a simple model consisting of a high-pass filter to produce the observation residuals and a decision function which is a pure integration of the residuals minus a bias term. The dynamics of a Boeing 707 were used to simulate the fully coupled final approach in a fixed-base simulator. Observers monitored the approaches and detected the failures; their performance was compared with the predictions of the model.

Gai, E. G.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of E3SM land model snow simulations over the western United States

Abstract. Seasonal snow has crucial impacts on climate, ecosystems, and humans, but it is vulnerable to global warming. The land component (ELM) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) mechanistically simulates snow processes from accumulation, canopy interception, compaction, and snow aging to melt. Although high-quality field measurements, remote sensing snow products, and data assimilation products with high spatio-temporal resolution are available, there has been no systematic evaluation of the snow properties and phenology in ELM. This study comprehensively evaluates ELM snow simulations over the western United States at 0.125∘ resolution during 2001–2019 using the Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) in situ networks, MODIS remote sensing products (i.e., MCD43 surface albedo product), the spatially and temporally complete (STC) snow-covered area and grain size (MODSCAG) and MODIS dust and radiative forcing in snow (MODDRFS) products (STC-MODSCAG/STC-MODDRFS), and the snow property inversion from remote sensing (SPIReS) product and two data assimilation products of snow water equivalent and snow depth – i.e., University of Arizona (UA) and SNOw Data Assimilation System (SNODAS). Overall the ELM simulations are consistent with the benchmarking datasets and reproduce the spatio-temporal patterns, interannual variability, and elevation gradients for different snow properties including snow cover fraction (fsno), surface albedo (αsur) over snow cover regions, snow water equivalent (SWE), and snow depth (Dsno). However, there are large biases of fsno with dense forest cover and αsur in the Rocky Mountains and Sierra Nevada in winter, compared to the MODIS products. There are large discrepancies of snow albedo, snow grain size, and light-absorbing particle-induced snow albedo reduction between ELM and the MODIS products, attributed to uncertainties in the aerosol forcing data, snow aging processes in ELM, and remote sensing retrievals. Against UA and SNODAS, ELM has a mean bias of −20.7 mm (−35.9 %) and −20.4 mm (−35.5 %), respectively, for spring, and −13.8 mm (−27.8 %) and −10.2 mm (−22.2 %), respectively, for winter. ELM shows a relatively high correlation with SNOTEL SWE, with mean correlation coefficients of 0.69 but negative mean biases of −122.7 mm. Compared to the snow phenology of STC-MODSCAG and SPIReS, ELM shows delayed snow accumulation onset dates by 17.3 and 12.4 d, earlier snow end dates by 35.5 and 26.8 d, and shorter snow durations by 52.9 and 39.5 d, respectively. This study underscores the need for diagnosing model biases and improving ELM representations of snow properties and snow phenology in mountainous areas for more credible simulation and future projection of mountain snowpack.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2021

Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches

Quantifying the net carbon flux from land use and land cover changes (fLULCC) is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle and, hence, to support climate change mitigation. However, large-scale fLULCC is not directly measurable and has to be inferred from models instead, such as semi-empirical bookkeeping models and process-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). By definition, fLULCC estimates are not directly comparable between these two different model types. As an important example, DGVM-based fLULCC in the annual global carbon budgets is estimated under transient environmental forcing and includes the so-called loss of additional sink capacity (LASC). The LASC results from the impact of environmental changes on land carbon storage potential of managed land compared to potential vegetation and accumulates over time, which is not captured in bookkeeping models. The fLULCC from transient DGVM simulations, thus, strongly depends on the timing of land use and land cover changes mainly because LASC accumulation is cut off at the end of the simulated period. To estimate the LASC, the fLULCC from pre-industrial DGVM simulations, which is independent of changing environmental conditions, can be used. Additionally, DGVMs using constant present-day environmental forcing enable an approximation of bookkeeping estimates. Here, we analyse these three DGVM-derived fLULCC estimations (under transient, pre-industrial, and present-day forcing) for 12 models within 18 regions and quantify their differences as well as climate- and CO2-induced components and compare them to bookkeeping estimates. Averaged across the models, we find a global fLULCC (under transient conditions) of 2.0±0.6 PgC/yr for 2009–2018, of which ∼40 % are attributable to the LASC (0.8±0.3 PgC/yr). From 1850 onward, the fLULCC accumulated to 189±56 PgC with 40±15 PgC from the LASC. Around 1960, the accumulating nature of the LASC causes global transient fLULCC estimates to exceed estimates under present-day conditions, despite generally increased carbon stocks in the latter. Regional hotspots of high cumulative and annual LASC values are found in the USA, China, Brazil, equatorial Africa, and Southeast Asia, mainly due to deforestation for cropland. Distinct negative LASC estimates in Europe (early reforestation) and from 2000 onward in the Ukraine (recultivation of post-Soviet abandoned agricultural land), indicate that fLULCC estimates in these regions are lower in transient DGVM compared to bookkeeping approaches. Our study unravels the strong dependence of fLULCC estimates on the time a certain land use and land cover change event happened to occur and on the chosen time period for the forcing of environmental conditions in the underlying simulations. We argue for an approach that provides an accounting of the fLULCC that is more robust against these choices, for example by estimating a mean DGVM ensemble fLULCC and LASC for a defined reference period and homogeneous environmental changes (CO2 only).

land use and land cover change↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches

Abstract. Quantifying the net carbon flux from land use and land cover changes (fLULCC) is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle and, hence, to support climate change mitigation. However, large-scale fLULCC is not directly measurable and has to be inferred from models instead, such as semi-empirical bookkeeping models and process-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). By definition, fLULCC estimates are not directly comparable between these two different model types. As an important example, DGVM-based fLULCC in the annual global carbon budgets is estimated under transient environmental forcing and includes the so-called loss of additional sink capacity (LASC). The LASC results from the impact of environmental changes on land carbon storage potential of managed land compared to potential vegetation and accumulates over time, which is not captured in bookkeeping models. The fLULCC from transient DGVM simulations, thus, strongly depends on the timing of land use and land cover changes mainly because LASC accumulation is cut off at the end of the simulated period. To estimate the LASC, the fLULCC from pre-industrial DGVM simulations, which is independent of changing environmental conditions, can be used. Additionally, DGVMs using constant present-day environmental forcing enable an approximation of bookkeeping estimates. Here, we analyse these three DGVM-derived fLULCC estimations (under transient, pre-industrial, and present-day forcing) for 12 models within 18 regions and quantify their differences as well as climate- and CO2-induced components and compare them to bookkeeping estimates. Averaged across the models, we find a global fLULCC (under transient conditions) of 2.0±0.6 PgC yr−1 for 2009–2018, of which ∼40 % are attributable to the LASC (0.8±0.3 PgC yr−1). From 1850 onward, the fLULCC accumulated to 189±56 PgC with 40±15 PgC from the LASC. Around 1960, the accumulating nature of the LASC causes global transient fLULCC estimates to exceed estimates under present-day conditions, despite generally increased carbon stocks in the latter. Regional hotspots of high cumulative and annual LASC values are found in the USA, China, Brazil, equatorial Africa, and Southeast Asia, mainly due to deforestation for cropland. Distinct negative LASC estimates in Europe (early reforestation) and from 2000 onward in the Ukraine (recultivation of post-Soviet abandoned agricultural land), indicate that fLULCC estimates in these regions are lower in transient DGVM compared to bookkeeping approaches. Our study unravels the strong dependence of fLULCC estimates on the time a certain land use and land cover change event happened to occur and on the chosen time period for the forcing of environmental conditions in the underlying simulations. We argue for an approach that provides an accounting of the fLULCC that is more robust against these choices, for example by estimating a mean DGVM ensemble fLULCC and LASC for a defined reference period and homogeneous environmental changes (CO2 only).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2018

Mars 2020 Surface Mission Modeling Landing Site Thermal Environments

This paper presents work done by the Mars 2020 Mission Planning Team to characterize landing site thermal environments. A process was developed to take in ground temperature simulation data for each landing site and efficiently discretize it into six thermal environment bins. The Mars 2020 Thermal Team then performed detailed heater and energy modeling in each of those environments. The heater modeling results were implemented into a Monte Carlo based surface mission model to understand mission performance impacts. The Mars 2020 Instrument Teams used the results to inform their design and to better understand how the thermal conditions at each landing site affected their instruments.

Lange, Robert D.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Mars 2020 Surface Mission Modeling Landing Site Thermal Environments

Lange, Robert D.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

DAVINCI Venus Entry, Descent, and Landing Modeling and Simulation

The Deep Atmosphere Venus Investigation of Noble gases, Chemistry, and Imaging (DAVINCI) mission will launch in June 2029 and explore Venus via two flybys and a probe landing scheduled for June 2031. The goals of the mission are to study the origin, evolution, and current state of Venus and to understand if it was habitable at a point in the past. The entry, descent, and landing (EDL) concept of operations of the probe leverages on the successful Pioneer Venus large probe mission. The science objectives of the mission levy certain requirements on the EDL system, such as landing in the scientifically important Alpha Regio Tessera and telemetering several gigabytes of instrumentation data to the orbiting relay spacecraft before the probe impacts the surface. In order to optimize the EDL sequence of the lander and to verify key driving requirements, a six degree of freedom EDL flight mechanics simulation has been created based on the best available aerodynamic and atmospheric models valid for Venus. This paper describes the EDL modeling and simulation and summarizes the current flight mechanics results for the mission.

Soumyo Dutta↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

DAVINCI Venus Entry, Descent, and Landing Modeling and Simulation

Soumyo Dutta↗

NASA NTRS2018

Mars 2020 Surface Mission Modeling: Landing Site Thermal Environments

This paper presents work done by the Mars 2020 Mission Planning Team to characterize landing site thermal environments. A process was developed to take in ground temperature simulation data for each landing site and efficiently discretize it into a handful of thermal bin environments. The Mars 2020 Thermal Team then performed detailed heater and energy modeling in each of those environments. The heater modeling results were implemented into a Monte Carlo based surface mission model to understand mission performance impacts. The Mars 2020 Instrument Teams used the results to inform their design and to better understand how the thermal conditions at each landing site affected their instruments.

Lange, Robert D.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Representing plant diversity in land models: An evolutionary approach to make “Functional Types” more functional

Plants are critical mediators of terrestrial mass and energy fluxes, and their structural and functional traits have profound impacts on local and global climate, biogeochemistry, biodiversity, and hydrology. Yet, Earth System Models (ESMs), our most powerful tools for predicting the effects of humans on the coupled biosphere-atmosphere system, simplify the incredible diversity of land plants into a handful of coarse categories of "Plant Functional Types" (PFTs) that often fail to capture ecological dynamics such as biome distributions. The inclusion of more realistic functional diversity is a recognized goal for ESMs, yet there is currently no consistent, widely accepted way to add diversity to models, that is, to determine what new PFTs to add and with what data to constrain their parameters. Here we review approaches to representing plant diversity in ESMs and draw on recent ecological and evolutionary findings to present an evolution-based functional type approach for further disaggregating functional diversity. Specifically, the prevalence of niche conservatism, or the tendency of closely related taxa to retain similar ecological and functional attributes through evolutionary time, reveals that evolutionary relatedness is a powerful framework for summarizing functional similarities and differences among plant types. We advocate that Plant Functional Types based on dominant evolutionary lineages ("Lineage Functional Types") will provide an ecologically defensible, tractable, and scalable framework for representing plant diversity in next-generation ESMs, with the potential to improve parameterization, process representation, and model benchmarking. We highlight how the importance of evolutionary history for plant function can unify the work of disparate fields to improve predictive modeling of the Earth system.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2007

Noise Spectra and Directivity For a Scale-Model Landing Gear

An extensive experimental study has been conducted to acquire detailed noise spectra and directivity data for a high-fidelity, 6.3%-scale, Boeing 777 main landing gear. The measurements were conducted in the NASA Langley Quiet Flow Facility using a 41-microphone directional array system positioned at a range of polar and azimuthal observer angles with respect to the model. DAMAS (Deconvolution Approach for the Mapping of Acoustic Sources) array processing as well as straightforward individual microphone processing were employed to compile unique flyover and sideline directivity databases for a range of freestream Mach numbers (0.11 - 0.17) covering typical approach conditions. Comprehensive corrections were applied to the test data to account for shear layer ray path and amplitude variations. This allowed proper beamforming at different measurement orientations, as well as directivity presentation in free-field emission coordinates. Four different configurations of the landing gear were tested: a baseline configuration with and without an attached side door, and a noise reduction concept "toboggan" truck fairing with and without side door. DAMAS noise source distributions were determined. Spectral analyses demonstrated that individual microphones could establish model spectra. This finding permitted the determination of unique, spatially-detailed directivity contours of spectral band levels over a hemispherical surface. Spectral scaling for the baseline model confirmed that the acoustic intensity scaled with the expected sixth-power of the Mach number. Finally, comparison of spectra and directivity between the baseline gear and the gear with an attached toboggan indicated that the toboggan fairing may be of some value in reducing gear noise over particular frequency ranges.

Humphreys, William M., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2022