Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “leading indicators”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5

Development of a Time-Height Profile Assimilation Technique for Large-Eddy Simulation

Mesoscale-to-microscale coupling (MMC) aims to address the limited scope of traditional large-eddy simulations by driving the microscale flow with information concerning large-scale weather patterns provided by mesoscale models. We present a new offline MMC technique for horizontally homogeneous microscale flow conditions, in which internal forcing terms are computed based on mesoscale time–height profiles of mean-flow quantities. The advantage of such an approach is that it can be used to drive a microscale simulation with either mesoscale or observational data, and that it does not rely on specific terms in the mesoscale budget equations, which are typically not part of the default output of a mesoscale solver. The performance of the proposed profile assimilation technique is assessed based on the simulation of a typical diurnal cycle over the Scaled Wind Farm Technology site in west Texas. Results indicate that simple data assimilation techniques lead to unphysically high levels of shear and turbulence caused by the algorithm’s inability to cope with inaccuracies in the mesoscale time–height profiles. Modifying the algorithm to account for vertical coherence in the mesoscale source terms gives the microscale solver a greater ability to correct the provided mesoscale time–height profiles, leading to improved predictions of shear and turbulence statistics. The resulting turbulence statistics are in good agreement with meteorological tower observations and simulation results obtained with state-of-the-art coupling techniques using mesoscale budget components.

data assimilation↗

Electro-Optical Characterization of Arsenic-Doped CdSeTe and CdTe Solar Cell Absorbers Doped in-situ During Close Space Sublimation

Most contemporary device models predict that an acceptor concentration of at least 10^16 cm^-3 is required to reach an open circuit voltage of 1 V in polycrystalline CdTe-based solar cells. While copper has traditionally been used as the de facto p-type dopant in polycrystalline cadmium telluride (CdTe) and cadmium selenide telluride (CdSeTe), reaching high acceptor concentrations has proved to be challenging in such devices due to significant dopant compensation. The acceptor concentration in copper-doped CdTe and CdSeTe typically ranges from 10^13 to 10^15 cm^-3 and routinely exhibit low external radiative efficiencies below 0.01%, limiting their implied voltage (i.e., quasi-Fermi level splitting) to approximately 900 mV. As an alternative to copper, this work explores the use of arsenic as a p-type dopant for CdTe and CdSeTe. Using a novel technique in which a thin layer of arsenic-containing material is deposited and used as a reservoir for arsenic to diffuse into a front layer of previously undoped material, this contribution demonstrates that high external radiative efficiencies are achievable, a direct result of combined high acceptor concentrations and long minority-carrier lifetimes in the absorber. This leads to improved implied voltages, and indicates that As-doping represents a promising pathway towards improving the external voltage of CdSeTe/CdTe solar cells.

cadmium telluride↗

Elucidating the Impact of Cis – Trans Organic Structure Directing Agent Isomer Ratios on the Aluminum Distribution Within SSZ-39

Despite their widespread use, the mechanisms governing the synthesis of zeolite catalysts are still poorly understood. A notable example of this problem is the uncertainty surrounding the influence of synthesis conditions on the placement of Al atoms in the zeolite framework which determines the active sites available for catalytic species. In this work, the role of the cis to trans isomer ratio of the OSDA N,N-dimethyl-3-5-dimethylpiperidinium on the energetics of 26 distinct Al pair distributions in SSZ-39 is examined both in the presence and absence of Na using density functional theory calculations. The initial orientation of the OSDA was found to have a significant impact on the final energies present, necessitating the screening of a large number of initial orientations with force field calculations and single point DFT calculations. Ground state energies were found to vary significantly with the ratio of cis to trans OSDAs with a Boltzmann distribution revealing the most likely Al pair distributions shift from sharing the same 8 membered rings to sharing the same double six membered rings to having no shared subunits as one increases the amount of cis OSDA present within the framework. The presence of Na was found to favor Al pair distributions where both Als occupied the same 6-membered ring. When an implicit solvent model was used to evaluate ground state energies the ideal Na sites shifted from 6-membered rings to empty SSZ-39 cages while OSDA positions and orientations remained largely the same. To provide insight on how kinetic factors may influence Al distributions, formation energies we calculated for connected double six membered rings. Further, these formation energies revealed a preference for Al pairs to occupy the same 4-membered ring which indicates kinetic and thermodynamic control may lead to different Al distributions in SSZ-39.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Orbital-Selective Instabilities and Spin Fluctuations at the Verge of Superconductivity in Interlayer-Expanded Iron Selenide

Understanding electron correlation-driven instabilities and their coupling to structural phases is essential for deciphering multiorbital pairing in unconventional superconductors. We investigate Li x (C 5 H 5 N) y Fe 2 Se 2 (x ∼ 0.6; y ∼ 0.7−0.9), a tetragonal β-FeSe intercalate with a superconducting transition temperature (T c = 39 K) closely tied to an expanded Fe-layer spacing (∼11.4 Å). High-resolution synchrotron Xray diffraction and core-level absorption spectroscopy reveal subtle lattice distortions on cooling without a symmetry-breaking transition. Instead, the material exhibits negative thermal expansion (NTE) in the two-dimensional Fe network below T S ∼ 70 K, and stiffening of local Se−Fe−Se bond dynamics near T c . The spatially incoherent rearrangement of FeSe 4 tetrahedra and the site-local fluctuations, signal reduced electron correlations compared to those of parent β-FeSe (T c = 8 K). Complementary X-ray emission spectroscopy, a fast local probe of Fe 3d valence states, detects persistent local Fe spin moments below T S , unlike quenching in related systems. These findings indicate that decoupling of Fe planes leads to an electronically driven lattice instability. The latter emerges as NTE induced from weak, orbital-selective localization of in-plane Fe 3d states rather than conventional transverse vibrations. Governed by Hund’s coupling, this selectivity permits coexistence of local spin fluctuations with itinerant d-electrons critical for enhancing T c . These results suggest that intercalation-driven d-orbital differentiation moderates electron correlations, providing a pathway to optimize the superconductivity in low-dimensional quantum materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Minimization of Cathode|Solid-Electrolyte Interfacial Delamination through the Application of Interphase Layers

Next-generation lithium-ion batteries are expected to use solid electrolytes (SEs) to enable higher energy density and extreme fast-charge capabilities. One major mode of degradation at the cathode|SE interface is delamination between the cathode active materials and SEs, which leads to performance decay. Experimental observations indicate that implementation of interphase layers can minimize the cathode|SE delamination induced capacity fade. A multiscale computational methodology is developed here to investigate the applicability of boron substituted lithium carbonate (Li 2+x B x C 1–x O 3 , x = 0.5, or LBCO) to minimize the delamination at the cathode|SE interface. Atomistic simulations indicate that the fracture energies at both the cathode|LBCO and LBCO|SE interfaces are higher than those at the cathode|SE interface, which reduces the extent of delamination. Mesoscale simulations indicate that, apart from increasing the fracture energy, decreasing the evolution of strain energy by lowering the elastic modulus of the interphase layer can also minimize the extent of delamination at the cathode|SE interface. However, the adoption of an interphase layer with high ionic conductivity is necessary to minimize the ohmic losses during operation at higher current densities. This study provides guidance on selecting interphase layers with specific properties and thicknesses to minimize both interfacial delamination and impedance growth.

LBCO↗

Effects of Extended Aqueous Processing on Structure, Chemistry, and Performance of Polycrystalline LiNi x Mn y Co z O 2 Cathode Powders

The prospect of aqueous processing of LiNi x Mn y Co z O 2 (NMC) cathodes has significant appeal to battery manufacturers for the reduction in materials cost, toxicological risk, and environmental impact compared to conventional N -methyl-2-pyrrolidone (NMP)-based processing. However, the effects of aqueous processing of NMC powders at industrial timescales are not well studied, with prior studies mostly focusing on relatively brief water washing processes. Here, we investigate the bulk and surface impacts of extended aqueous processing of polycrystalline NMC powders with different compositions. We demonstrate that at timescales of several hours, polycrystalline NMC is susceptible to intergranular fracture, with the severity of fracture scaling with the NMC nickel content. While bulk crystallinity and composition are unchanged, surface sensitive techniques such as X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) indicate that the exposure of water leads to a level of delithiation, nickel reduction, and reconstruction from the layered to rock-salt structure at the surface of individual grains. Dynamic single NMC microparticle compression testing suggests that the resulting mechanical stresses weaken the integrity of the polycrystalline particle and increases susceptibility of intergranular fracture. The initially degraded surfaces along with the increased surface area lead to faster capacity fade and impedance growth during electrochemical cycling. From this work, it is demonstrated that NMC powders require surface or grain boundary modifications to make industrial-scale aqueous cathode processing viable, especially for next-generation nickel-rich NMC chemistries.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Concerted Proton–Electron Transfer Minimizes Substituent Effects on Adsorbed Phthalocyanine Electrocatalysis

Molecularly modified electrodes (MMEs) are potent electrocatalysts, but few principles exist for their rational design. Electrocatalysis by soluble molecules depends strongly on substituents that tune the catalyst redox potential (E 1/2 ), but it is unclear if this parameter similarly impacts MME catalysis. Herein, we employ the hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) as a test case for comparing carbon-adsorbed cobalt phthalocyanine (CoPc/C) and cobalt hexadecafluoro-phthalocyanine (CoFPc/C). By correlating HER activity and voltammetric data to total Co surface concentration across a wide range of catalyst loadings, we find that only 5–25% of adsorbed Co sites contribute to the Co(II/I) redox wave and that this subpopulation poorly correlates with catalytic activity. Instead, in the low-loading limit, catalytic activity correlates linearly with the majority Co(II/I)-silent Co population, revealing per-site turnover frequency (TOF) values for HER. Despite a 230 mV difference in Co(II/I) redox potentials, CoPc/C and CoFPc/C display TOF values differing by less than a factor of 3 when compared over a wide potential range. Mechanistic studies point to an inner-sphere concerted proton–electron transfer step as rate-determining, suggesting that the Co–H bond dissociation free energy (BDFE) rather than the Co(II/I) E 1/2 is thermodynamically relevant. Computational studies indicate that the fluoro-substituents lead to compensatory changes in Co(II/I) E 1/2 and Co(I) basicity, leaving the Co–H BDFE largely unchanged between CoPc and CoFPc and thereby manifesting in similar catalytic rates. Furthermore, these results highlight the limited effect of E 1/2 -tuning on MME catalytic activity and motivate the development of methods to directly alter active site–substrate BDFE.

Catalysts↗

Accumulation of Large Ion Populations with High Ion Densities and Effects Due to Space Charge in Traveling Wave-Based Structures for Lossless Ion Manipulations (SLIM) IMS-MS

The accumulation of very large ion populations in traveling wave (TW)-based Structures for Lossless ion Manipulations (SLIM) has been studied to better understand aspects of ‘in-SLIM’ ion accumulation, and particularly its use in conjunction with ion mobility spectrometry (IMS). A linear SLIM ion path was implemented that had a ‘gate’ for blocking and accumulating ions for arbitrary time periods. Removing the gate potential caused ions to exit and the spatial distributions of accumulated ions were examined. The ion populations for a set of peptides were observed to increase with increased accumulation times until space change effects became significant, after which the peptide precursor ion populations decreased due to growing space charge-related ion activation, reactions, and losses. Ions closest to the gate were preferentially activated, and increasingly so with added storage times, TW amplitude, and the size of the total ion population. For analytical applications, we found that relatively weak TWs in the accumulation/storage region should be utilized to prevent or minimize ion losses and/or ion heating effects that can also lead to fragmentation. Our results further indicate that an accumulation region close to the SLIM entrance is advantageous for both speeding accumulation, minimizing ion heating, and avoiding ion population profiles that result in IMS peak tailing. Importantly, space charge-driven separations were observed for large populations of accumulated species and attributed to the opposing effects of space charge and the TW. In these separations, ion species form distributions or peaks, sometimes moving against the TW, and ordered in the SLIM based on their mobilities. Such separations may offer utility for ion pre-fractionation of ions and increasing the dynamic range measurements, increasing the resolving power of IMS separations by decreasing peak widths for accumulated ion populations, and other purposes benefitting from separations of extremely large ion populations.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Deformation Precursors to Catastrophic Failure in Rocks

Forecasting the timing of catastrophic failure, such as crustal earthquakes, has been a central concern for centuries. Such forecasting requires identifying signals that evolve or accelerate in the precursory phase leading to failure, and the subset of signals that may be detected in the crust. We develop machine learning models to predict the proximity of catastrophic failure in synchrotron X-ray tomography triaxial compression experiments on rocks using characteristics of evolving fracture networks. We then examine the characteristics that most strongly influence the model results, and thus may be considered the best predictors of the proximity of macroscopic failure. Finally, the resulting suite of predictive parameters underscores the importance of dilation in the precursory phase leading to catastrophic failure. The results indicate that the evolution of the strain energy density field may provide more robust predictions of the proximity of failure than other existing metrics of rock deformation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

How Do Climate Model Resolution and Atmospheric Moisture Affect the Simulation of Unprecedented Extreme Events Like the 2021 Western North American Heat Wave?

Abstract Although the 2021 Western North America (WNA) heat wave was predicted by weather forecast models, questions remain about whether such strong events can be simulated by global climate models (GCMs) at different model resolutions. Here, we analyze sets of GCM simulations including historical and future periods to check for the occurrence of similar events. High‐ and low‐resolution simulations both encounter challenges in reproducing events as extreme as the observed one, particularly under the present climate. Relatively stronger amplitudes are observed during the future periods. Furthermore, high‐ and low‐resolution short initialized GCM simulations are both able to reasonably predict such strong events and their associated high‐pressure ridge over the WNA with a 1 week forecast lead time. Moisture sensitivity experiments further indicate a drier atmospheric moisture condition results in substantially higher near‐surface temperatures in the simulated heat events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Variational multiscale reinforcement learning for discovering reduced order closure models of nonlinear spatiotemporal transport systems

Abstract A central challenge in the computational modeling and simulation of a multitude of science applications is to achieve robust and accurate closures for their coarse-grained representations due to underlying highly nonlinear multiscale interactions. These closure models are common in many nonlinear spatiotemporal systems to account for losses due to reduced order representations, including many transport phenomena in fluids. Previous data-driven closure modeling efforts have mostly focused on supervised learning approaches using high fidelity simulation data. On the other hand, reinforcement learning (RL) is a powerful yet relatively uncharted method in spatiotemporally extended systems. In this study, we put forth a modular dynamic closure modeling and discovery framework to stabilize the Galerkin projection based reduced order models that may arise in many nonlinear spatiotemporal dynamical systems with quadratic nonlinearity. However, a key element in creating a robust RL agent is to introduce a feasible reward function, which can be constituted of any difference metrics between the RL model and high fidelity simulation data. First, we introduce a multi-modal RL to discover mode-dependant closure policies that utilize the high fidelity data in rewarding our RL agent. We then formulate a variational multiscale RL (VMRL) approach to discover closure models without requiring access to the high fidelity data in designing the reward function. Specifically, our chief innovation is to leverage variational multiscale formalism to quantify the difference between modal interactions in Galerkin systems. Our results in simulating the viscous Burgers equation indicate that the proposed VMRL method leads to robust and accurate closure parameterizations, and it may potentially be used to discover scale-aware closure models for complex dynamical systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Reaction dynamics of S( 3 P) with 1,3-butadiene and isoprene: crossed-beam scattering, low-temperature flow experiments, and high-level electronic structure calculations

Sulfur atoms serve as key players in diverse chemical processes, from astrochemistry at very low temperature to combustion at high temperature. Building upon our prior findings, showing cyclization to thiophenes following the reaction of ground-state sulfur atoms with dienes, we here extend this investigation to include many additional reaction products, guided by detailed theoretical predictions. The outcomes highlight the complex formation of products during intersystem crossing (ISC) to the singlet surfaces. Here, we employed crossed-beam velocity map imaging and high-level ab initio methods to explore the reaction of S( 3 P) with 1,3-butadiene and isoprene under single-collision conditions and in low-temperature flows. For the butadiene reaction, our experimental results show the formation of thiophene via H 2 loss, a 2H-thiophenyl radical through H loss, and thioketene through ethene loss at a slightly higher collision energy compared to previous observations. Complementary Chirped-Pulse Fourier-Transform mmWave spectroscopy (CP-FTmmW) measurements in a uniform flow confirmed the formation of thioketene in the reaction at 20 K. For the isoprene reaction, we observed analogous products along with the 2H-thiophenyl radical arising from methyl loss and C 3 H 4 S (loss of ethene or H 2 + acetylene). CP-FTmmW detected the formation of thioformaldehyde via loss of 1,3-butadiene, again in the 20 K flow. Coupled-cluster calculations on the pathways found by the automated kinetic workflow code KinBot support these findings and indicate ISC to the singlet surface, leading to the generation of various long-lived intermediates, including 5-membered heterocycles.

Lang, Jinxin↗

Characterization of self-magnetic pinch radiographic diode performance on RITS-6 at Sandia National Laboratories. II. Coupling between the inductive voltage adder and the SMP load

The self-magnetic pinch (SMP) diode is a type of radiographic diode used to generate an intense electron beam for radiographic applications. At Sandia National Laboratories, SMP was the diode load for the six-cavity radiographic integrated test stand inductive voltage adder (IVA) driver operated in a magnetically insulated transmission line (MITL). The MITL contributes a flow current in addition to the current generated within the diode itself. Extensive experiments with a MITL of 40Ω load impedance [T. J. Renk et al., Phys. Plasmas 29, 023105 (2022)] indicate that the additional flow current leads to results similar to what might be expected from a conventional high-voltage interface driver, where flow current is not present. However, when the MITL flow impedance was increased to 80 Ω, qualitatively different diode behavior was observed. This includes large retrapping waves suggestive of an initial coupling to low impedance as well as diode current decreasing with time even as the total current does not. A key observation is that the driver generates total current (flow + diode) consistent with the flow impedance of the MITL used. The case is made in this paper that the 80Ω MITL experiments detailed here can only be understood when the IVA-MITL-SMP diode is considered as a total system. Additionally, the constraint of fixed total current plus the relatively high flow impedance limits the ability of the diode (whether SMP or other type) to act as an independent load. An unexpected new result is that in tracking the behavior of the electron strike angle on the converter as a function of time, we observed that the conventional cIV x “Radiographic” radiation scaling (where x~2.2) begins to break down for voltages above 8 MV, and cubic scaling is required to recover accurate angle tracking.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The roles of photochemical and non-photochemical quenching in regulating photosynthesis depend on the phases of fluctuating light conditions

We report the induction and relaxation of photochemistry and non-photochemical quenching (NPQ) are not instantaneous and require time to respond to fluctuating environments. There is a lack of integrated understanding on how photochemistry and NPQ influence photosynthesis in fluctuating environments. We measured the induction and relaxation of chlorophyll a fluorescence and gas exchange in poplar and cotton at varying temperatures under saturating and fluctuating lights. When the light shifted from dark to high, the fraction of open reaction centers in photosystem II (q L ) gradually increased while NPQ increased suddenly and then remained stable. Temperature significantly changed the response of q L but not that of NPQ during the dark to high light transition. Increased q L led to higher photosynthesis but their precise relationship was affected by NPQ and temperature. q L was significantly related to biochemical capacity. Thus, q L appears to be a strong indicator of the activation of carboxylase, leading to the similar dynamics between q L and photosynthesis. When the light shifted from high to low intensity, NPQ is still engaged at a high level, causing a stronger decline in photosynthesis. Our finding suggests that the dynamic effects of photochemistry and NPQ on photosynthesis depend on the phases of environmental fluctuations and interactive effects of light and temperature. Across the full spectra of light fluctuation, the slow induction of q L is a more important limiting factor than the slow relaxation of NPQ for photosynthesis in typical ranges of temperature for photosynthesis. The findings provided a new perspective to improve photosynthetic productivity with molecular biology under natural fluctuating environments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Single-Nucleon Transfer on Unstable 59 Cu Probes the NiCu Cycle in Astrophysical X-Ray Bursts

Recent models of the rapid proton (𝑟⁢𝑝) capture process indicate that a competition between the 59 Cu⁢(𝑝,𝛾) ⁢60 Zn and 59 Cu⁢(𝑝,𝛼) ⁢56 Ni reactions may result in the formation of a nickel-copper (NiCu) cycle that traps the flux of material between 56 Ni and 60 Zn . Here, in this work, we report the identification of 15 proton-unbound levels in 60 Zn , populated via 59 Cu⁢(𝑑,𝑛) transfer, which govern the rate of the 59 Cu⁢(𝑝,𝛾)⁢ 60 Zn reaction in XRBs. Precise excitation energies for levels in 60 Zn were obtained from observed 𝛾 decays, and spectroscopic factors were determined from angle-integrated cross sections. Incorporating these results into stellar-model calculations, we find that with experimentally constrained uncertainties a NiCu cycle in XRBs is indeed possible, though we limit its branching strength to less than 38%. While modest, such a branching has significant impact on the light curve, motivating further studies of the relevant rates. Our calculations also indicate that a significant NiCu cycle leads to an increase in the amount of odd-𝐴 nuclei in the burst ashes, which may affect Urca cooling processes in neutron star crusts.

direct reactions↗

Exploring the Dirac nature of RbBi 2

Characteristics of topological semimetals such as a nonsaturating magnetoresistance (MR), a field-induced metal to semiconducting crossover and a robust resistivity plateau are observed under a magnetic field in type-I RbBi 2 bulk superconductor with $\mathrm{T}$ c = 4.15 K. The MR exhibits a notable 3500% increase at 2 K and 9 T and the resistivity follows a power law temperature dependence, while the MR ∝ $\mathrm{H}$ 1.26 , indicating weak carrier compensation. Further, first principles calculations provided insights into the dynamical stability of the cubic structure at 0 K. Both hole and electron pockets are observed at the Fermi surface. The electron-phonon interaction constant indicates weak coupling strength (<1) that leads to a maximum predicted $\mathrm{T}$ c of 2.852 K. Just below the Fermi level, E F , the electronic band structure consists of linear band crossings at the $\mathrm{X}$ points in the Brillouin zone (BZ) corresponding to massless, symmetry-protected Dirac fermions.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Scoping studies for low-temperature melting ZnO–Bi 2 O 3 –(B 2 O 3 , SiO 2 ) binder glass

In this work, low melting point glass systems were explored as candidates for binders of solid oxide nuclear wastes which include volatile elements such as radioactive iodine. The base glass systems considered were ZnO-Bi 2 O 3 -B 2 O 3 and ZnO-Bi 2 O 3 -SiO 2 , with specific compositions selected for synthesis trials based on available phase diagrams and a desire to explore the whole glass-forming region. Ten compositions were synthesized by melt quenching. Promising candidate glass binders were selected based on absence of crystallization and favorable thermal properties, including low glass transition temperature (T g ) combined with a high crystallization onset temperature. These thermal properties indicate stable glass forming which would lead to sintering behavior needed for glass binding. Compositional effects include: higher Bi 2 O 3 content lead to lower Tg values, high ZnO content generally led to crystallization on quench, and high SiO 2 content resulted in requirements for excessively high melting temperature. 25ZnO-15Bi 2 O 3 -60B 2 O 3 was down-selected for some detailed crystallization versus time and temperature studies.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Modeled and observed properties related to the direct aerosol radiative effect of biomass burning aerosol over the southeastern Atlantic

Biomass burning smoke is advected over the southeastern Atlantic Ocean between July and October of each year. This smoke plume overlies and mixes into a region of persistent low marine clouds. Model calculations of climate forcing by this plume vary significantly in both magnitude and sign. NASA EVS-2 (Earth Venture Suborbital-2) ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) had deployments for field campaigns off the west coast of Africa in 3 consecutive years (September 2016, August 2017, and October 2018) with the goal of better characterizing this plume as a function of the monthly evolution by measuring the parameters necessary to calculate the direct aerosol radiative effect. Here, this dataset and satellite retrievals of cloud properties are used to test the representation of the smoke plume and the underlying cloud layer in two regional models (WRF-CAM5 and CNRM-ALADIN) and two global models (GEOS and UM-UKCA). The focus is on the comparisons of those aerosol and cloud properties that are the primary determinants of the direct aerosol radiative effect and on the vertical distribution of the plume and its properties. The representativeness of the observations to monthly averages are tested for each field campaign, with the sampled mean aerosol light extinction generally found to be within 20 % of the monthly mean at plume altitudes. When compared to the observations, in all models, the simulated plume is too vertically diffuse and has smaller vertical gradients, and in two of the models (GEOS and UM-UKCA), the plume core is displaced lower than in the observations. Plume carbon monoxide, black carbon, and organic aerosol masses indicate underestimates in modeled plume concentrations, leading, in general, to underestimates in mid-visible aerosol extinction and optical depth. Biases in mid-visible single scatter albedo are both positive and negative across the models. Observed vertical gradients in single scatter albedo are not captured by the models, but the models do capture the coarse temporal evolution, correctly simulating higher values in October (2018) than in August (2017) and September (2016). Uncertainties in the measured absorption Ångstrom exponent were large but propagate into a negligible (<4 %) uncertainty in integrated solar absorption by the aerosol and, therefore, in the aerosol direct radiative effect. Model biases in cloud fraction, and, therefore, the scene albedo below the plume, vary significantly across the four models. The optical thickness of clouds is, on average, well simulated in the WRF-CAM5 and ALADIN models in the stratocumulus region and is underestimated in the GEOS model; UM-UKCA simulates cloud optical thickness that is significantly too high. Overall, the study demonstrates the utility of repeated, semi-random sampling across multiple years that can give insights into model biases and how these biases affect modeled climate forcing. The combined impact of these aerosol and cloud biases on the direct aerosol radiative effect (DARE) is estimated using a first-order approximation for a subset of five comparison grid boxes. A significant finding is that the observed grid box average aerosol and cloud properties yield a positive (warming) aerosol direct radiative effect for all five grid boxes, whereas DARE using the grid-box-averaged modeled properties ranges from much larger positive values to small, negative values. It is shown quantitatively how model biases can offset each other, so that model improvements that reduce biases in only one property (e.g., single scatter albedo but not cloud fraction) would lead to even greater biases in DARE. Across the models, biases in aerosol extinction and in cloud fraction and optical depth contribute the largest biases in DARE, with aerosol single scatter albedo also making a significant contribution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗