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DOE OSTI2026

Risks to the DOW Mission From Global Advanced Energy Adoption

Advanced energy technologies have the potential to enhance energy security and resilience; however, they can introduce new vulnerabilities even as they mitigate existing ones. This dichotomy highlights that both action and inaction carry strategic risks in a contested and logistically complex operating environment. Regardless of U.S. civilian or military adoption of such technologies, key allies and adversaries are on adoption paths that will impact the U.S. military at the tactical, operational, and strategic level. The global adoption of advanced energy technologies presents the potential for both positive and negative consequences for U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) missions in the next 10-20 years. Three categories of risk drivers are presented in this analysis: infrastructure-related, adoption-related, and response-related. Each risk type can generate consequences for DOD, including power disruptions, suboptimal DOD mission performance and operational effectiveness, higher costs and shortages for both legacy and advanced energy technologies, and loss of U.S. influence and strategic deterrent value. Specific impacts could include tactical impacts, operational impacts, and strategic impacts. Mitigation strategies could include energy resource and technology planning, cybersecurity, supply chain resilience, workforce development, exercises and simulations, investments in commercialized technology, operational testing and pilot programs, research into emerging technologies, partnerships and working groups, common standards, budget planning, and repurposing infrastructure.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2012

Fire-induced Carbon Emissions and Regrowth Uptake in Western U.S. Forests: Documenting Variation Across Forest Types, Fire Severity, and Climate Regions

The forest area in the western United States that burns annually is increasing with warmer temperatures, more frequent droughts, and higher fuel densities. Studies that examine fire effects for regional carbon balances have tended to either focus on individual fires as examples or adopt generalizations without considering how forest type, fire severity, and regional climate influence carbon legacies. This study provides a more detailed characterization of fire effects and quantifies the full carbon impacts in relation to direct emissions, slow release of fire-killed biomass, and net carbon uptake from forest regrowth. We find important variations in fire-induced mortality and combustion across carbon pools (leaf, live wood, dead wood, litter, and duff) and across low- to high-severity classes. This corresponds to fire-induced direct emissions from 1984 to 2008 averaging 4 TgC/yr and biomass killed averaging 10.5 TgC/yr, with average burn area of 2723 sq km/yr across the western United States. These direct emission and biomass killed rates were 1.4 and 3.7 times higher, respectively, for high-severity fires than those for low-severity fires. The results show that forest regrowth varies greatly by forest type and with severity and that these factors impose a sustained carbon uptake legacy. The western U.S. fires between 1984 and 2008 imposed a net source of 12.3 TgC/yr in 2008, accounting for both direct fire emissions (9.5 TgC/yr) and heterotrophic decomposition of fire-killed biomass (6.1 TgC yr1) as well as contemporary regrowth sinks (3.3 TgC/yr). A sizeable trend exists toward increasing emissions as a larger area burns annually.

Forest↗

DOE OSTI2022

Understory plant communities show resistance to drought, hurricanes, and experimental warming in a wet tropical forest

Global climate change has led to rising temperatures and to more frequent and intense climatic events, such as storms and droughts. Changes in climate and disturbance regimes can have non-additive effects on plant communities and result in complicated legacies we have yet to understand. This is especially true for tropical forests, which play a significant role in regulating global climate. We used understory vegetation data from the Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) in Puerto Rico to evaluate how plant communities responded to climate warming and disturbance. The TRACE understory vegetation was exposed to a severe drought (2015), 2 years of experimental warming (4°C above ambient in half of the plots, 2016–2017 and 2018–2019), and two major hurricanes (Irma and María, September 2017). Woody seedlings and saplings were censused yearly from 2015 to 2019, with an additional census in 2015 after the drought ended. We evaluated disturbance-driven changes in species richness, diversity, and composition across ontogeny. We then used Bayesian predictive trait modeling to assess how species responded to disturbance and how this might influence the functional structure of the plant community. Our results show decreased seedling richness after hurricane disturbance, as well as increased sapling richness and diversity after warming. We found a shift in species composition through time for both seedlings and saplings, yet the individual effects of each disturbance were not significant. At both ontogenetic stages, we observed about twice as many species responding to experimental warming as those responding to drought and hurricanes. Predicted changes in functional structure point to disturbance-driven functional shifts toward a mixture of fast-growing and drought-tolerant species. Our findings demonstrate that the tropical forest understory community is more resistant to climatic stressors than expected, especially at the sapling stage. However, early signs of changes in species composition suggest that, in a warming climate with frequent droughts and hurricanes, plant communities might shift over time toward fast-growing or drought-tolerant species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Improving the Performance of NEML2 with Modern Graph Compilation Backends

NEML2 vectorizes constitutive-model evaluation for large-scale multiphysics simulation, using PyTorch as its tensor backend so that a batch of material-point updates runs on CPU or GPU through a single implementation. In the two prior reports in this series it was a C++-native library, deployed through TorchScript tracing and just-in-time (JIT) compilation; it has since been rewritten from the ground up into a Python-native library deployed through Ahead-of-Time Inductor (AOTInductor), a modern PyTorch graph-compilation backend. The rewrite is driven by a persistent tension, not a language preference: NEML2 composes constitutive models at runtime from a registry of small, independently-authored pieces, and that flexibility is difficult to reconcile with the compile-time knowledge an efficient GPU kernel needs. This report documents the rewrite and the investment that accompanied it: the AOTInductor export pipeline that turns a Python-authored model into a portable, Python-free compiled artifact loadable from pure C++; the eager and compiled runtimes and the new implicit solver layer built on them; a head-to-head benchmark of legacy JIT against AOTInductor; the physics-model catalog and its worked examples; the developer tooling; and the corresponding overhaul of MOOSE’s NEML2 integration that lets MOOSE consume it. A central objective is to examine whether modern PyTorch graph-compilation backends are effective for MOOSE GPU integration. The benchmark answers directly: AOTInductor outperforms legacy JIT on every GPU scenario measured, by 1.0–4.5×. Modern graph-compilation backends are effective for MOOSE GPU integration, and AOTInductor specifically – not compilation in the abstract – is why.

Hu, Gary (Tianchen) [Argonne National Laboratory (↗

DOE OSTI2025

SMR Containment Cable and Electrical Penetration Assembly System

GAIN Project CRADA Number NFE-21-08839, entitled “SMR Containment Cable and EPA System” was initiated by the partnership of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Engineered Solutions Group (ESG) to test an ESG-designed Electrical Penetration Assembly and Containment Cabling System Qualified for not only SMR technologies, but also Advanced Reactors design. An Electrical Penetration Assembly (EPA) is a component used to allow electrical power and signal conductors as well as optical fiber through the nuclear reactor’s containment structure while maintaining a pressure barrier. The EPA ensures the containment's integrity both during the normal operation and also accident conditions by providing a sealed passage for power and signals. This project was undertaken to fill the equipment gap of EPA and Cabling Systems that require much more severe environmental requirements than legacy plant applications present due to their smaller containment volumes that result in high energy densities compared to legacy designs. This high energy density results in severe accident environments and also more severe normal operating conditions.This document describes cost effective approaches to qualify a unique EPA for Small Modular Reactor (SMR) technologies as legacy LWR EPA technologies will likely have inherent material performance insufficiencies. The DBA profiles for SMRs (and some Advanced Reactor Technologies) are more severe than the legacy qualification requirements making the design of the qualification testing system challenging as the temperatures and pressures can approach the limits permitted by ASME Pressure Vessel Code, as well as accident temperatures exceeding the capability of polymeric gaskets and dielectrics. Small Modular Reactors are designed to have, as the name suggests, modularity which implies sized for factory fabrication and subsequent assembly at the power plant site. SMR containment is much smaller than a legacy Light Water Reactor containment. The containment walls are likely to be comprised of stainless steel. Qualifying Electrical Penetration Assemblies (EPAs) through these steel vessels are of interest in this work. Methods are presented here that discuss critical safety and cost effectiveness for these SMR EPA’s test systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1968

The medical legacy of Gemini.

Gemini and Mercury space flights medical results, summarizing physiological effects noted on body systems

Berry, C. A.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Amphiphilic Block Copolymers for Flocculation and Hydrophobization of Legacy Waste Suspensions in Flotation Driven Dewatering Operations - 20162

Flotation has been effectively demonstrated as a low footprint, high efficiency separation process when utilising simple anionic surface modifying agents such as sodium dodecyl sulphate (SDS). These agents increase hydrophobicity to remove suspended cationic surface charged particulates such as Mg(OH){sub 2} from waste suspensions similar to those at British nuclear fuel management sites- where corrosion processes have degraded fuel cladding. The technology is advantageous as it could effectively be retrofitted into existing waste management facilities at nuclear waste management sites such Sellafield and Hanford as the simplicity (no moving parts) and size of this technology coupled with low cost of construction could be rapidly deployed to aid in risk and hazard reduction decommissioning operations with minimum impact to secondary waste generation. Previously, sodium dodecyl sulphate has been deployed as a collector agent to increase the hydrophobicity of Mg(OH){sub 2} suspended particles, achieving a maximum particulate extraction percentage of 93%. To achieve further particulate extraction, flotation performance has been determined to be a function of the hydrodynamic limitations extracting fine material (>20 μm). Fine particulates have been shown in the minerals industry to have an inability to overcome slipstreams created from rising bubbles in flotation cells, likely due to the low mass and thus momentum of the colloidal material, preventing interaction between the hydrophobized particles and air-water interfaces (bubbles). To combat this mass transfer resistance poly(acrylic acid)-block-poly(n-butyl acrylate) amphiphilic diblock copolymers were synthesised via reversible addition-fragmentation chain-transfer (RAFT) polymerisation. The anticipated mode of action of these polymers involves the hydrophilic poly(acrylic acid) block polymer acting as a flocculation agent to increase the mass of the aggregates, and the hydrophobic poly(n-butyl acrylate) modifies the hydrophobicity of the resulting flocs. The concentration of this polymer (termed a macro-collector) was varied and the change in particle size distribution of the particulate suspension was analysed using static light scattering. The flotation performance was then characterised by several methods including percentage particulate recovery, volume reduction factor and residual bulk particulate concentration. This was then benchmarked against the traditional surfactant collector agent SDS. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reduce Revenue Versus Increase Expenditure: Fires and Plant Invasion Drive Soil Carbon Loss With Different Mechanisms in a Mediterranean Shrubland

Fires and plant invasions threaten Mediterranean ecosystems substantially, particularly in the context of changing climate. Our study utilized a data-model integration approach to assess the response of soil organic carbon (SOC) to fires and plant invasion under three Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-26, SSP2-45, and SSP5-85). We parameterized the CLM-Microbe model and then investigated the individual and interactive impacts of fires and plant invasion on soil C by comparing factorial simulations of initialization (fire/no wildfire in 2021), fire module on/off, and with and without plant invasion during 2023–2100 in a Mediterranean ecosystem. The simulations indicated a marked C loss due to the 2021 wildfire, projected fires, and plant invasion across all future climate scenarios. Specifically, the 2021 wildfire, projected fires, and plant invasion reduced the SOC (0–30 cm) by 0.12, 0.26, and 0.15 kg C m −2 under SSP1-26, 0.12, 0.30, and 0.12 kg C m −2 under SSP2-45, and 0.12, 0.24, and 0.13 kg C m −2 under SSP5-85, respectively. However, fires and plant invasion decreased SOC through distinct mechanisms. The effects of the 2021 wildfire occurred due to its negative legacy on soil microbial community and, thus, litter accumulation, suppressing the formation of soil carbon via decomposition. Influences of projected fires happen via consuming fuel and suppressing carbon input to soils. In contrast, the impacts of plant invasions were due to enhanced microbial respiration, leading to C loss. In conclusion, these findings emphasize the need for tailored C sequestration strategies considering the disparate effects of fires and plant invasions in the Mediterranean climate.

microbe↗

DOE OSTI2022

Frustrated Coulombic and Cation Size Effects on Nanoscale Boehmite Aggregation: A Tumbler Small- and Ultra-Small-Angle Neutron Scattering Study

To better understand the effects of solution chemistry on particle aggregation in the complex legacy tank wastes at the Hanford (WA) and Savannah River (SC) sites, we have performed a series of tumbler small- and ultra-small-angle neutron scattering experiments on 20 wt % solid slurries of nanoparticulate aluminum oxyhydroxide (boehmite) with M 1+ nitrates of various concentrations and radii. In this study, the solutes consisted of H, Li, Na, K, and Rb nitrates at 10 –5 , 10 –3 , 10 –1 , 2, and 4 molal (m) concentrations, as well as in pure H 2 O. Synthetic boehmite nanoparticles were used with a size range from ~20 to 30 nm. Tumbler cells were used to keep the solids from settling. Although particles initially form individual rhombohedral platelets, once placed in solution, they quickly form well-bonded stacks, primary aggregates, up to ~1500 Å long, and a second level of aggregates whose concentration and structure vary as a function of cation type and concentration. Aggregation generally increases with increased solute concentration and with cation radius up to a concentration somewhat above 10 –1 m, at which point the trend reverses. Primary aggregates become more rodlike and larger. The Kirkwood-like reversal probably reflects a change from Derjaguin–Landau–Verwey–Overbeek (DLVO)/Debye behavior controlled by surface chemistry to a frustrated Coulombic system controlled by the solution structure. These data suggest that an understanding of the effects of salt concentration and chemistry on nanoparticle aggregate structures provides useful physical insights into the microscopic origin of slurry rheology in the Hanford and Savannah River legacy wastes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

A unified catalogue-level reanalysis of stage-III cosmic shear surveys

ABSTRACT Cosmological parameter constraints from recent galaxy imaging surveys are reaching percent-level accuracy on the effective amplitude of the lensing signal, S8. The upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory will produce subpercent level measurements of cosmological parameters, providing a milestone test of the ΛCDM model. To supply guidance to the upcoming LSST analysis, it is important to understand thoroughly the results from different recent galaxy imaging surveys and assess their consistencies. In this work, we perform a unified catalogue-level reanalysis of three cosmic shear data sets: the first year data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES-Y1), the 1000 deg2 data set from the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-1000), and the first year data from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC-Y1). We utilize a pipeline developed and rigorously tested by the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration to perform the reanalysis and assess the robustness of the results to analysis choices. We find the S8 constraint to be robust to two different small-scale modelling approaches, and varying choices of cosmological priors. Our unified analysis allows the consistency of the surveys to be rigorously tested, and we find the three surveys to be statistically consistent. Due to the partially overlapping footprint, we model the cross-covariance between KiDS-1000 and HSC-Y1 approximately when combining all three data sets, resulting in a 1.6–1.9 per cent constraint on S8 given different assumptions on the cross-covariance.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Low-cost sensors and analytics for a digital factory

ORNL Manufacturing Demonstration Facility and Perisense worked on a low-cost solution for machining process monitoring to enable a digital factory. Enabling machine connectivity for digital factors is expensive for many small to medium manufacturers. The hypothesis for the research project is that a lowcost sensor suite, which can be retrofitted to a legacy machine tool or a new machine tool, can effectively provide real-time, in-situ sensing for manufacturing processes, which can enable improvements in process performance and efficiency. The Perisense sensor node was installed on the Haas TM1 machine with a current sensor and an accelerometer. Cutting tests were performed at different process parameters and sensor data was recorded. Results show a correlation of the current sensor to the spindle load. The accelerometer, mounted on the machine base, showed a correlation to the spindle speed as well as the spindle load. The sensor data can be used to monitor the machining process and provide insights on the machine spindle load utilization.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2015

NASA Operational Simulator for Small Satellites (NOS3)

The Simulation-to-Flight 1 (STF-1) CubeSat mission aims to demonstrate how legacy simulation technologies may be adapted for flexible and effective use on missions using the CubeSat platform. These technologies, named NASA Operational Simulator (NOS), have demonstrated significant value on several missions such as James Webb Space Telescope, Global Precipitation Measurement, Juno, and Deep Space Climate Observatory in the areas of software development, mission operationstraining, verification and validation (VV), test procedure development and software systems check-out. STF-1 will demonstrate a highly portable simulation and test platform that allows seamless transition of mission development artifacts to flight products. This environment will decrease development time of future CubeSat missions by lessening the dependency on hardware resources. In addition, through a partnership between NASA GSFC, the West Virginia Space Grant Consortium and West Virginia University, the STF-1 CubeSat will hosts payloads for three secondary objectives that aim to advance engineering and physical-science research in the areas of navigation systems of small satellites, provide useful data for understanding magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling and space weather, and verify the performance and durability of III-V Nitride-based materials.

modeling simulation↗

NASA NTRS2016

Simulation-To-Flight (STF-1): A Mission to Enable CubeSat Software-Based Validation and Verification

The Simulation-to-Flight 1 (STF-1) CubeSat mission aims to demonstrate how legacy simulation technologies may be adapted for flexible and effective use on missions using the CubeSat platform. These technologies, named NASA Operational Simulator (NOS), have demonstrated significant value on several missions such as James Webb Space Telescope, Global Precipitation Measurement, Juno, and Deep Space Climate Observatory in the areas of software development, mission operations/training, verification and validation (V&V), test procedure development and software systems check-out. STF-1 will demonstrate a highly portable simulation and test platform that allows seamless transition of mission development artifacts to flight products. This environment will decrease development time of future CubeSat missions by lessening the dependency on hardware resources. In addition, through a partnership between NASA GSFC, the West Virginia Space Grant Consortium and West Virginia University, the STF-1 CubeSat will hosts payloads for three secondary objectives that aim to advance engineering and physical-science research in the areas of navigation systems of small satellites, provide useful data for understanding magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling and space weather, and verify the performance and durability of III-V Nitride-based materials.

navigation↗

DOE OSTI2025

Contemporary income inequality outweighs historic redlining in shaping intra-urban heat disparities in Los Angeles

The roots of intra-urban heat disparity in the U.S. often trace back to historical discriminatory practices, such as redlining, which categorized neighborhoods by race or ethnicity. In this study, we compare the relative impacts of historic redlining and current income inequality on thermal disparities in Los Angeles. A key innovation of our work is the use of land surface temperature data from the ECOSTRESS instrument aboard the International Space Station, enabling us to capture diurnal trends in urban thermal disparities. Our findings reveal that present-day income inequality is a stronger predictor of heat burden than the legacy of redlining. Additionally, land surface temperature disparities exhibit a seasonal hysteresis effect, intensifying during extreme heat events by 5−7 °C. Sociodemographic analysis highlights that African-American and Hispanic populations in historically and economically disadvantaged areas are often the most vulnerable. Our findings suggest that while the legacy of redlining may persist, the present-day heat disparities are not necessarily an immutable inheritance, where targeted investments and interventions can pave the way for a more thermally just future for these communities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2007

Global Energy Issues and Alternate Fueling

This viewgraph presentation describes world energy issues and alternate fueling effects on aircraft design. The contents include: 1) US Uses about 100 Quad/year (1 Q = 10(exp 15) Btu) World Energy Use: about 433 Q/yr; 2) US Renewable Energy about 6%; 3) Nuclear Could Grow: Has Legacy Problems; 4) Energy Sources Primarily NonRenewable Hydrocarbon; 5) Notes; 6) Alternate Fuels Effect Aircraft Design; 7) Conventional-Biomass Issue - Food or Fuel; 8) Alternate fuels must be environmentally benign; 9) World Carbon (CO2) Emissions Problem; 10) Jim Hansen s Global Warming Warnings; 11) Gas Hydrates (Clathrates), Solar & Biomass Locations; 12) Global Energy Sector Response; 13) Alternative Renewables; 14) Stratospheric Sulfur Injection Global Cooling Switch; 15) Potential Global Energy Sector Response; and 16) New Sealing and Fluid Flow Challenges.

Hendricks, Robert C.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Raman Spectroscopic In Situ Monitoring of Highly Turbid Media

The ability to run chemical processing more efficiently and cost effectively is a need that spans critical materials recovery and legacy nuclear waste cleanup. Sensors integrated to provide online monitoring are essential to addressing this need by providing near-real time feedback on process conditions, which can improve efficiency, aid in decision making, and reduce the need for grab sample measurements. Optical spectroscopy is well-suited for providing online chemical composition information and has been widely applied in varied chemical systems. However, applications in turbid matrices continue to represent substantial challenges to sensor performance, where absorption or scattering of excitation light can cause significant signal interference. Here, in this study, close-focus Raman probes are investigated for use in turbid media as a way to overcome the signal loss from the scattering of the Raman excitation source. This, paired with advanced data science techniques, allowed for the development of chemometric models for the accurate quantification of several analytes of interest (NO 3 – , NO 2 – , and PO 4 3– ) in highly turbid solutions with solids loadings of up to 20 wt %. This work focuses on offline sample measurement and characterization as an initial step toward the development of online monitoring capabilities. Chemical systems of interest were focused on nuclear waste at the Hanford Site, which represents highly complex matrices that could realize significant processing benefits through the integration of online monitoring.

Felmy, Heather M. [Pacific Northwest National Labo↗

NASA NTRS2018

Signatures of the Impact Histories of Comets and Asteroids within Shocked Phyllosilicates, Enstatite, and Forsterite Minerals

Throughout the lifetime of the solar system, collisions between small bodies and impacts on the surfaces of small bodies in the Kuiper Belt have occured at speeds of 1.5 - 3 km s-1 (Stern, Astron J 124, 2002), typically at 1-10 km s-1 between Trojan asteroids (Marzari et al. Icarus 119, 1996), and at ~4-8 km s-1 in the asteroid belt (Farinella and Davis, Icarus 97, 1992). Shock effects recorded by minerals composing these bodies are one observable legacy of this evolutionary process, whether they were generated through large collisions, micrometeoroid impacts, or processing during the formation of the solar system. Shock metamorphism has been observed in cometary samples such as those from Comet Wild 2 (Keller et al. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 72, 2008; Tomeoka et al. MAPS 43, 2008; Jacobs et al. MAPS 44, 2009) as well as in forsterites and enstatites found in meteorites (McCausland et al. AGU, 2010). To investigate the observable signatures of these processes, we have conducted a suite of impact experiments at NASA Johnson Space Center's Experimental Impact Laboratory (EIL). Target materials included Mg-rich forsterite (olivine), Mg-rich enstatite (orthopyroxene), and antigorite and lizardite (both in the serpentine group of phyllosilicates). Alumina-ceramic spheres were launched at speeds ranging from ~2.0 - 2.6 km s-1 into targets at temperatures from 25degC to -100degC. Recent advancements have been made in cooling targets in the EIL's vertical gun. Liquid nitrogen (LN2) is fed through a unique jacket surrounding the metallic sample container to chill the samples. Real-time values from temperature sensors attached to the sample holder are converted to target temperature through predetermined regression relationships, providing the target temperature at the time of impact with sub-degree accuracy. Fourier Transform Infrared Spectrometer (FTIR) data in the near to mid-IR will be presented, along with trends relating temperature and velocity with impact speeds, and thereby peak shock stresses experienced by the impacted minerals.

Lederer, Susan M.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogeological assessment of CO2 containment assurance and wellbore integrity at a Gulf Coast storage site

Abstract A large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiative on the Texas Gulf Coast serves as a premier demonstration of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE program. Targeting deep saline formations, specifically Oligo-Miocene deltaic sequences, the project aims to establish technical and commercial viability for geologic CO2 storage within a major industrial corridor. This study provides a rigorous hydrogeological assessment to support Class VI permitting by quantifying the high degree of containment security. Utilizing a compositional reservoir simulator, we developed a suite of 27 distinct simulation cases to evaluate vertical plume dynamics near both planned injection wells and proximal legacy infrastructure. To ensure numerical accuracy near wellbores, we implemented a refined mesh strategy, determining that a 5.6 ft × 5.6 ft grid refinement offered the optimal balance between computational efficiency and descriptive precision. The modeling framework utilized a systematic sensitivity-based approach to evaluate the mechanical redundancy of the subsurface system by performing a bounding analysis of wellbore interfaces against hypothetical high-permeability microannuli. By systematically isolating competing physical drivers, including permeability, porosity, gas hysteresis, thermal gradients, salinity, and solubility trapping (quantified via Henry’s law with dynamically adjusted coefficients), this work moves beyond binary assessments to establish a nuanced hierarchy of containment factors. The results confirm that primary trapping mechanisms (e.g., gas hysteresis and solubility), combined with the site's unique geomechanical stratigraphy, significantly restrict vertical mobility and reinforce the robust containment security of the reservoir. Baseline results demonstrate substantial vertical separation between the CO2 plume and the upper confining system, ensuring robust containment. Sensitivity analysis reveals that even under highly conservative bounding scenarios—assuming theoretical 10-Darcy pathways at specific wellbore locations—the 2,900-ft thick multi-layered confining zone remains a reliable barrier. In these hypothetical upper-bound cases, peak upward fluxes of CO2 and saltwater after 15 years of injection remain localized and dissipate rapidly within the lower sections of the confining interval, leaving the integrity of the seal uncompromised. Furthermore, the study identifies that while localized wellbore pathways define theoretical upper bounds of vertical migration, the Area of Review (AoR) is primarily sensitive to regional thermal gradients and hysteresis, which can influence the AoR by over 3,000 acres in pessimistic configurations. Also, primary trapping mechanisms, specifically gas hysteresis and solubility, work in tandem with the Gulf Coast’s unique geomechanical stratigraphy to significantly restrict vertical mobility. Ductile, smectite-rich mudstones facilitate natural borehole convergence and the self-healing of potential conduits, creating a natural geomechanical bridge that effectively mitigates migration potential at both current injection points and legacy-well locations. This comprehensive modeling effort demonstrates that the integration of high-resolution wellbore simulations and regional geomechanical observations confirms the long-term storage security of the studied site, providing a physics-based foundation for industrial-scale CCS deployments. This modeling framework establishes a baseline for future research into coupled geomechanical effects, such as time-dependent borehole convergence, to further refine long-term containment projections. Acknowledgements We thank the Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) at the Bureau of Economic Geology for foundational research support. We appreciate Alex Bump for technical guidance and David Hoffman for model mesh generation. This work used TACC’s Frontera cluster for simulations and CMG Ltd. software licenses provided to UT-Austin. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032338. Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Office under the CarbonSAFE program, award Number DE-FE0032338. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the United States Government.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗