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Service life testing and reliability estimation, using ordinary and empirical Bayes approach in failure model with gamma probability distribution
Nonparametric techniques for probability distribution, probability density, and hazard function estimates for life quality
Thermodynamic principles used to estimate likelihood of life in solar system
Likelihood of life in solar system estimated from entropy and mass transport mechanisms
The Multi-Purpose Satellite bus (MPS) can be used for a number of payloads which may require different orbits, pointing accuracy, and electrical power consumption. Specifically, it was designed to accommodate the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer and an EHF communication payload, both of which have a three-year life. The estimated beginning-of-life weight of the MPS bus is 150 kg. It can be launched by either the Pegasus ALV or the Taurus SSLV. Configuration requirements for the different missions are discussed.
Cost estimates of life support systems in manned lunar bases
The computer code, NASALIFE, was used to provide estimates for life of an SiC/SiC stator vane under varying thermomechanical loading conditions. The primary intention of this effort is to show how the computer code NASALIFE can be used to provide reasonable estimates of life for practical propulsion system components made of advanced ceramic matrix composites (CMC). Simple loading conditions provided readily observable and acceptable life predictions. Varying the loading conditions such that low cycle fatigue and creep were affected independently provided expected trends in the results for life due to varying loads and life due to creep. Analysis was based on idealized empirical data for the 9/99 Melt Infiltrated SiC fiber reinforced SiC.
A computer program, TLIFE, which estimates the life, dynamic capacity, and reliability of aircraft transmissions, is presented. The program enables comparisons of transmission service life at the design stage for optimization. A variety of transmissions may be analyzed including: spur, helical, and spiral bevel reductions as well as series combinations of these reductions. The basic spur and helical reductions include: single mesh, compound, and parallel path plus revert star and planetary gear trains. A variety of straddle and overhung bearing configurations on the gear shafts are possible as is the use of a ring gear for the output. The spiral bevel reductions include single and dual input drives with arbitrary shaft angles. The program is written in FORTRAN 77 and has been executed both in the personal computer DOS environment and on UNIX workstations. The analysis may be performed in either the SI metric or the English inch system of units. The reliability and life analysis is based on the two-parameter Weibull distribution lives of the component gears and bearings. The program output file describes the overall transmission and each constituent transmission, its components, and their locations, capacities, and loads. Primary output is the dynamic capacity and 90-percent reliability and mean lives of the unit transmissions and the overall system which can be used to estimate service overhaul frequency requirements. Two examples are presented to illustrate the information available for single element and series transmissions.
A method for estimating the life of a regeneratively cooled rocket thrust chamber was developed and is based on the hot-gas wall temperature and the temperature difference between the hot-gas wall and the outside surface of the closeout. This method permits a quick estimate of the life of a thrust chamber when design changes or test-cycle variations are considered. Strain range and life are presented graphically as functions of these temperature parameters for a typical high-performance rocket thrust chamber with a half-hard zirconium-copper liner and an electroformed nickel closeout.
Advanced Technology Life-cycle Analysis System (ATLAS) is a system-of-systems technology-portfolio-analysis software tool. ATLAS affords capabilities to (1) compare estimates of the mass and cost of an engineering system based on competing technological concepts; (2) estimate life-cycle costs of an outer-space-exploration architecture for a specified technology portfolio; (3) collect data on state-of-the-art and forecasted technology performance, and on operations and programs; and (4) calculate an index of the relative programmatic value of a technology portfolio. ATLAS facilitates analysis by providing a library of analytical spreadsheet models for a variety of systems. A single analyst can assemble a representation of a system of systems from the models and build a technology portfolio. Each system model estimates mass, and life-cycle costs are estimated by a common set of cost models. Other components of ATLAS include graphical-user-interface (GUI) software, algorithms for calculating the aforementioned index, a technology database, a report generator, and a form generator for creating the GUI for the system models. At the time of this reporting, ATLAS is a prototype, embodied in Microsoft Excel and several thousand lines of Visual Basic for Applications that run on both Windows and Macintosh computers.
Both the conventional and reliability analyses for determining safe fatigue life are predicted on a population having a specified (usually log normal) distribution of life to collapse under a fatigue test load. Under a random service load spectrum, random occurrences of load larger than the fatigue test load may confront and cause collapse of structures which are weakened, though not yet to the fatigue test load. These collapses are included in reliability but excluded in conventional analysis. The theory of risk determination by each method is given, and several reasonably typical examples have been worked out, in which it transpires that if one excludes collapse through exceedance of the uncracked strength, the reliability and conventional analyses gave virtually identical probabilities of failure or survival.
The remote sensing of rain amounts is of great interest for a great variety of operational applications, including hydrology, hydroelectricity and agriculture is discussed. The microwave radiometer represents the most obvious technique, however, poor spatial and temporal resolution, together with the problems associated with the estimation of effective rain layer height make visible and IR techniques more promising at the present time. Based on bivariate frequency distribution of brightness versus temperature, brightness enhancing or infrared technique alone may be inadequate to deduce details of convective activity. It is implied that better estimates of rainfall will come from visible and IR observations combined than from either used alone. The technique identifies clouds with high probability of rain as those which have large optical and presumably physical thickness as measured by the visible albedo in comparison with their height, determined by the intensity of the IR emission.
Advances in materials, coatings, turbine cooling technology, structural and design concepts, and component-life prediction of helicopter gas-turbine-engine components are presented. Stationary parts including the inlet particle separator, the front frame, rotor tip seals, vanes and combustors and rotating components - compressor blades, disks, and turbine blades - are discussed. Advanced composite materials are considered for the front frame and compressor blades, prealloyed powder superalloys will increase strength and reduce costs of disks, the oxide dispersion strengthened alloys will have 100C higher use temperature in combustors and vanes than conventional superalloys, ceramics will provide the highest use temperature of 1400C for stator vanes and 1370C for turbine blades, and directionally solidified eutectics will afford up to 50C temperature advantage at turbine blade operating conditions. Coatings for surface protection at higher surface temperatures and design trends in turbine cooling technology are discussed. New analytical methods of life prediction such as strain gage partitioning for high temperature prediction, fatigue life, computerized prediction of oxidation resistance, and advanced techniques for estimating coating life are described.
The data analysis of cycles to failure of silver-zinc electrochemical cells with competing failure modes is presented. The test ran 129 cells through charge-discharge cycles until failure; preliminary data analysis consisted of response surface estimate of life. Batteries fail through low voltage condition and an internal shorting condition; a competing failure modes analysis was made using maximum likelihood estimation for the extreme value life distribution. Extensive residual plotting and probability plotting were used to verify data quality and selection of model.
One hundred and twenty nine cells were run through charge-discharge cycles until failure. The experiment design was a variant of a central composite factorial in five factors. Preliminary data analysis consisted of response surface estimation of life. Batteries fail under two basic modes; a low voltage condition and an internal shorting condition. A competing failure modes analysis using maximum likelihood estimation for the extreme value life distribution was performed. Extensive diagnostics such as residual plotting and probability plotting were employed to verify data quality and choice of model.
This paper investigates the integration of on-line and off-line diagnostic algorithms for aircraft gas turbine engines. The on-line diagnostic algorithm is designed for in-flight fault detection. It continuously monitors engine outputs for anomalous signatures induced by faults. The off-line diagnostic algorithm is designed to track engine health degradation over the lifetime of an engine. It estimates engine health degradation periodically over the course of the engine s life. The estimate generated by the off-line algorithm is used to update the on-line algorithm. Through this integration, the on-line algorithm becomes aware of engine health degradation, and its effectiveness to detect faults can be maintained while the engine continues to degrade. The benefit of this integration is investigated in a simulation environment using a nonlinear engine model.
The feasibility of using nickel cadmium batteries as an alternate if flight qualified NiH2 batteries are not available is explored. Battery life expectancy data being a key element of power system design, an attempt is made to review the literature, life test data and in orbit performance data to develop an up to date estimate of life expectancy for NiCd batteries in a geosynchronous orbit.
The focus of this work is the analysis of different degradation phenomena based on thermal overstress and electrical overstress accelerated aging systems and the use of accelerated aging techniques for prognostics algorithm development. Results on thermal overstress and electrical overstress experiments are presented. In addition, preliminary results toward the development of physics-based degradation models are presented focusing on the electrolyte evaporation failure mechanism. An empirical degradation model based on percentage capacitance loss under electrical overstress is presented and used in: (i) a Bayesian-based implementation of model-based prognostics using a discrete Kalman filter for health state estimation, and (ii) a dynamic system representation of the degradation model for forecasting and remaining useful life (RUL) estimation. A leave-one-out validation methodology is used to assess the validity of the methodology under the small sample size constrain. The results observed on the RUL estimation are consistent through the validation tests comparing relative accuracy and prediction error. It has been observed that the inaccuracy of the model to represent the change in degradation behavior observed at the end of the test data is consistent throughout the validation tests, indicating the need of a more detailed degradation model or the use of an algorithm that could estimate model parameters on-line. Based on the observed degradation process under different stress intensity with rest periods, the need for more sophisticated degradation models is further supported. The current degradation model does not represent the capacitance recovery over rest periods following an accelerated aging stress period.