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DOE OSTI2025

A cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven short-term load forecasting methods with large-scale smart meter data

Electricity load forecasting is essential to utility operation and power grid stability. A wide spectrum of data-driven methods, ranging from linear regression models to more recent deep learning models have been adopted to forecast electric load over the years. However, there still lacks a holistic evaluation of the applicability of conventional statistical and machine learning based algorithms with respect to different temporal and spatial scopes, computational requirements, and sensitivity of model-tuning. Enabled by a large-scale electricity load profile dataset of over 40,000 residential customers in a utility region, we conducted a cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven load forecasting methods. Three regression-based and seven deep learning algorithms with different model configurations were evaluated in terms of their overall and peak load prediction accuracy, and training burdens, across spatial aggregation levels ranging from the transformer, feeder, substation, to neighborhood. We found, first, the load forecasting accuracy is constrained by a predictability boundary, influenced by the forecasting horizon and spatial aggregation level. Specifically, RandomForest, XGBoost, TFT, TSMixer, and TiDE models achieved less than 10 % prediction error for up to 96-h ahead forecasting for district, substation, and feeder levels, while other models struggle at long-horizon predictions; Second, for winter and summer peak load dates, most models were able to predict the peak demand timing within ± 1 h, but the prediction percentage error varied by models, with TFT and TiDE models being the top performers; Third, models with similar prediction accuracy can differ in training burden by an order of magnitude. Therefore, choosing model configurations that balance prediction performance and computational resource is an important practical consideration for large-scale deployment of the machine learning based load forecasting. The outcome of this study can guide researchers and practitioners to choose the proper load forecasting algorithms based on their problem scope, required accuracy, and available resources. The predictability boundary can serve as a benchmark for electricity load forecasting problems with new algorithms and datasets.

Li, Han↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bubbles in US gasoline prices: Assessing the role of hurricanes and anti–price gouging laws

This paper examines the presence of bubbles — price changes that cannot be attributed to market fundamentals — in weekly US retail gasoline prices for ten US cities, and whether these bubbles are affected by hurricane events and anti–price gouging laws. Rolling-window, right-tailed unit root tests were used to identify and date bubbles. The analysis found 6 to 22 bubbles, lasting 4 weeks or longer, in city-level retail gasoline prices between 2000 and 2017. A linear regression model of the adjustment speed coefficients from the bubble identification step found that hurricane events increase the rate of price explosivity (or slow the rate of return to equilibrium) following a shock. Furthermore, the regression estimates also imply that state anti–price gouging laws can counteract these effects.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

An Algorithm to Retrieve Total Precipitable Water Vapor in the Atmosphere from FengYun 3D Medium Resolution Spectral Imager 2 (FY-3D MERSI-2) Data

The atmosphere has substantial effects on optical remote sensing imagery of the Earth’s surface from space. These effects come through the functioning of atmospheric particles on the radiometric transfer from the Earth’s surface through the atmosphere to the sensor in space. Precipitable water vapor (PWV), CO 2 , ozone, and aerosol in the atmosphere are very important among the particles through their functioning. This study presented an algorithm to retrieve total PWV from the Chinese second-generation polar-orbiting meteorological satellite FengYun 3D Medium Resolution Spectral Imager 2 (FY-3D MERSI-2) data, which have three near-infrared (NIR) water vapor absorbing channels, i.e., channel 16, 17, and 18. The algorithm was improved from the radiance ratio technique initially developed for Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. MODTRAN 5 was used to simulate the process of radiant transfer from the ground surfaces to the sensor at various atmospheric conditions for estimation of the coefficients of ratio technique, which was achieved through statistical regression analysis between the simulated radiance and transmittance values for FY-3D MERSI-2 NIR channels. The algorithm was then constructed as a linear combination of the three-water vapor absorbing channels of FY-3D MERSI-2. Measurements from two ground-based reference datasets were used to validate the algorithm: the sun photometer measurements of Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and the microwave radiometer measurements of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARMP). The validation results showed that the algorithm performs very well when compared with the ground-based reference datasets. The estimated PWV values come with root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.28 g/cm 2 for the ARMP and 0.26 g/cm 2 for the AERONET datasets, with bias of 0.072 g/cm 2 and 0.096 g/cm 2 for the two reference datasets, respectively. The accuracy of the proposed algorithm revealed a better consistency with ground-based reference datasets. Thus, the proposed algorithm could be used as an alternative to retrieve PWV from FY-3D MERSI-2 data for various remote sensing applications such as agricultural monitoring, climate change, hydrologic cycle, and so on at various regional and global scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Thresholding Analysis and Feature Extraction from 3D Ground Penetrating Radar Data for Noninvasive Assessment of Peanut Yield

This study explores the efficacy of utilizing a novel ground penetrating radar (GPR) acquisition platform and data analysis methods to quantify peanut yield for breeding selection, agronomic research, and producer management and harvest applications. Sixty plots comprising different peanut market types were scanned with a multichannel, air-launched GPR antenna. Image thresholding analysis was performed on 3D GPR data from four of the channels to extract features that were correlated to peanut yield with the objective of developing a noninvasive high-throughput peanut phenotyping and yield-monitoring methodology. Plot-level GPR data were summarized using mean, standard deviation, sum, and the number of nonzero values (counts) below or above different percentile threshold values. Best results were obtained for data below the percentile threshold for mean, standard deviation and sum. Data both below and above the percentile threshold generated good correlations for count. Correlating individual GPR features to yield generated correlations of up to 39% explained variability, while combining GPR features in multiple linear regression models generated up to 51% explained variability. The correlations increased when regression models were developed separately for each peanut type. This research demonstrates that a systematic search of thresholding range, analysis window size, and data summary statistics is necessary for successful application of this type of analysis. The results also establish that thresholding analysis of GPR data is an appropriate methodology for noninvasive assessment of peanut yield, which could be further developed for high-throughput phenotyping and yield-monitoring, adding a new sensor and new capabilities to the growing set of digital agriculture technologies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Full-Field Strain Measurement Integrated with Two Dimension Regression Analysis to Evaluate the Bi-Modulus Elastic Properties of Isotropic and Transversely Isotropic Materials

Background: Measuring the physical properties of shale is critical for optimizing engineering activities such as geothermal energy generation and hydraulic fracturing. Shale is a transversely isotropic material. Furthermore, this material can also include micro and macro cracks at different locations and orientations that cause it to behave differently under tensile or compressive loading. Objective: In this work, a combined experimental–numerical approach is proposed to evaluate the bi-modulus elastic properties of isotropic and transversely isotropic materials. Methods: Full-field strain measurements for a circular disk under diametral compression are integrated with a regression analysis technique to evaluate the elastic properties of bi-modulus materials subjected to tensile and compressive loads using two loading configurations on the same specimen. Digital Image Correlation (DIC) is used to measure the full-field strains. Subsequently, in the case of an isotropic material, a linear least-squares approach is utilized to process the experimentally determined strains in conjunction with analytical expressions of the stress fields (in terms of far-field loading) to determine the elastic modulus E, the shear modulus G, and the Poisson’s ratio $v$. In the case of a transversely isotopic material, such as shale, a finite element model is implemented to determine the stress fields (again in terms of far-field loading), which is followed by repeating the previous regression analysis in an iterative process to estimate the elastic parameters. Results: The results show that the proposed technique successfully provides a complete set of elastic properties as a function of both the loading condition and the principal material directions. The technique is validated by measurements on a known isotropic material and then applied to determine the properties of shale. Conclusion: In this work, the proposed approach is successfully used to calculate the bi-modulus elastic response of poly(methyl meth- acrylate) (PMMA) and shale. As expected, PMMA exhibits an isotropic response with no bi-modulus effect, however, shale exhibits both transverse isotropy and a bi-modulus effect. Therefore, this approach holds promise for investigating the elastic properties of materials like rocks and fiber-reinforced composite laminates as functions of the principal material directions and the loading conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Performance Comparison of Machine Learning Models for Ultrasonic Nondestructive Evaluation of Alkali-Silica Reaction in Concrete

Alkali-silica reaction (ASR) causes concrete degradation, leading to cracking, rebar corrosion, and reduced structural integrity, which raises safety concerns. Ultrasonic nondestructive evaluation (NDE) effectively assesses concrete properties and monitors ASR progression. However, its deployment and analysis require specialized expertise and subjective interpretation. As computational power increases, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) algorithms are increasingly being used to automate NDE data analysis across various industries for AI-assisted automation. Regulatory agencies are adapting to this technological shift, prompting a need to evaluate current ML technologies’ capabilities and limitations in assessing concrete material properties and damage. This report presents a comparative analysis of four ML regression models for predicting concrete material damage induced by ASR expansion using long-term ultrasonic data monitoring. The models investigated include linear regression (LR), support vector regression (SVR), shallow neural networks (NN), and deep neural networks (DNN). LR, SVR, and shallow NN models use features extracted from ultrasonic signals, whereas the DNN model processes time-domain ultrasonic signals and frequency spectra directly. The study systematically compared the models’ performance from various perspectives, including model input, prediction performance, and generalization ability. The findings indicate significant variability in model performance, with some ML algorithms achieving very high or very low prediction accuracy depending on the preprocessing and feature engineering (extraction and selection) applied. Key insights include the observation that shallow ML models (LR, SVR, and shallow NNs) require meticulous preprocessing and feature extraction to achieve high accuracy. In contrast, the DNN model, although it bypasses the need for feature engineering, necessitates extensive preprocessing to mitigate noise and computational demands. The SVR model emerged as the top performer among the shallow models, and the DNN model exhibited superior performance on specific datasets but struggled with generalization across specimens from different batches. Additionally, the SVR model is sensitive to temperature variations, whereas the DNN model is robust in this regard. Using recurrent neural networks is recommended for future ASR expansion prediction studies. Recurrent neural networks’ inherent ability to capture temporal dependencies and long-term patterns makes them well suited for analyzing sequential ultrasonic monitoring data. Overall, the results and conclusions of this study could provide insights into the capabilities and effectiveness of ML when applied to ultrasonic NDE data and help identify best practices for using ML for ultrasonic NDE of concrete material properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

BeyondPlanck: XV. Limits on large-scale polarized anomalous microwave emission from Planck LFI and WMAP

We constrained the level of polarized anomalous microwave emission (AME) on large angular scales using Planck Low-Frequency Instrument (LFI) and WMAP polarization data within a Bayesian cosmic microwave background (CMB) analysis framework. We modeled synchrotron emission with a power-law spectral energy distribution, as well as the sum of AME and thermal dust emission through linear regression with the Planck High-Frequency Instrument (HFI) 353 GHz data. This template-based dust emission model allowed us to constrain the level of polarized AME while making minimal assumptions on its frequency dependence. We neglected CMB fluctuations, but show through simulations that these fluctuations have a minor impact on the results. We find that the resulting AME polarization fraction confidence limit is sensitive to the polarized synchrotron spectral index prior. In addition, for prior means β s < -3.1 we find an upper limit of p AME max ≲ 0.6% (95% confidence). In contrast, for means β s = -3.0, we find a nominal detection of p AME = 2.5 ± 1.0% (95% confidence). These data are thus not strong enough to simultaneously and robustly constrain both polarized synchrotron emission and AME, and our main result is therefore a constraint on the AME polarization fraction explicitly as a function of β s . Combining the current Planck and WMAP observations with measurements from high-sensitivity low-frequency experiments such as C-BASS and QUIJOTE will be critical to improve these limits further.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

A molecular dynamics simulation study of thermal conductivity anisotropy in β-octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine (β-HMX)

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were used to predict the thermal conductivity of β-octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine (β-HMX) along directions normal to the (011), (110), and (010) crystal planes. These directions were selected based on the measured morphological importance of the corresponding crystal surfaces. A reverse non-equilibrium MD approach was used wherein a constant heat flux is imposed along a prescribed direction and the resulting steady-state temperature gradient determined. The coefficient of thermal conductivity λ is the quotient of heat flux and temperature gradient (i.e. Fourier's law). Finite-size effects and sensitivity to imposed heat flux were investigated. The results reveal a modest dependence of the conductivity on crystal orientation, significant finite-size effects, and low sensitivity to imposed flux so long as the Fourier's law analysis is limited to the spatial interval in the simulation cell for which the temperature gradient is constant. Infinite-length thermal conductivities were estimated by linear regression of λ -1 (L) versus reciprocal cell length L -1 for each direction. The predicted values are systematically larger, but within a factor of two, than most published experimental determinations, the latter of which were obtained for pressed-powder or composite samples rather than oriented single crystals.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Exploring the Effects of Node Topology, Connectivity, and Metal Identity on the Binding of Nerve Agents and Their Hydrolysis Products in Metal–Organic Frameworks

Recent studies have shown that metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) built from hexanuclear M(IV) oxide cluster nodes are effective catalysts for nerve agent hydrolysis, where the properties of the active sites on the nodes can strongly influence the reaction energetics. The connectivity and metal identity of these M6 nodes can be easily tuned, offering extensive opportunities for computational screening to predict promising new materials. Thus, we used density functional theory (DFT) to examine the effects of node topology, connectivity, and metal identity on the binding energies of multiple nerve agents and their corresponding hydrolysis products. By computing an optimization metric based on the relative binding strengths of key hydrolysis reaction species (water, agent, and bidentate-bound products), we predicted optimal M6 nodes for hydrolyzing specific nerve agent and simulant molecules, where our results are in qualitative agreement with observed experimental trends. This analysis highlighted the notion that no single metal or node topology is optimal for all possible organophosphates, suggesting that MOFs should be selected based on the agent of interest. Using the large amount of data generated from our DFT calculations, we then derived quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) models to help explain the complex trends observed in the binding energies. Through linear regression, we identified the most important descriptors for describing the binding of nerve agents and their hydrolysis products to M6 nodes. These results suggested that both molecular and node properties, including both structural and chemical features, collectively contribute to the binding energetics. By performing a thorough statistical analysis, we showed that our QSAR models are capable of making quantitatively accurate binding energy predictions for nerve agents and their hydrolysis products in a wide variety of M(IV)-MOFs. In conclusion, the insights gained herein can be used to guide future experiments for the synthesis of MOFs with enhanced catalytic activity for organophosphate hydrolysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Spectra and characteristics of somatic mutations induced by ionizing radiation in hematopoietic stem cells

Spectra and frequencies of spontaneous and X-ray-induced somatic mutations were revealed with mouse long-term hematopoietic stem cells (LT-HSCs) by whole-genome sequencing of clonal cell populations propagated in vitro from single isolated LT-HSCs. SNVs and small indels were the most common types of somatic mutations, and increased up to twofold to threefold by whole-body X-irradiation. Base substitution patterns in the SNVs suggested a role of reactive oxygen species in radiation mutagenesis, and signature analysis of single base substitutions (SBS) revealed a dose-dependent increase of SBS40. Most of spontaneous small deletions were shrinkage of tandem repeats, and X-irradiation specifically induced small deletions out of tandem repeats (non-repeat deletions). Presence of microhomology sequences in non-repeat deletions suggested involvement of microhomology mediated end-joining repair mechanisms as well as nonhomologous end-joining in radiation-induced DNA damages. We also identified multisite mutations and structural variants (SV), i.e., large indels, inversions, reciprocal translocations, and complex variants. The radiation-specificity of each mutation type was evaluated from the spontaneous mutation rate and the per-Gy mutation rate estimated by linear regression, and was highest with non-repeat deletions without microhomology, followed by those with microhomology, SV except retroelement insertions, and multisite mutations; these types were thus revealed as mutational signatures of ionizing radiation. Further analysis of somatic mutations in multiple LT-HSCs indicated that large fractions of postirradiation LT-HSCs originated from single LT-HSCs that survived the irradiation and then expanded in vivo to confer marked clonality to the entire hematopoietic system, with varying clonal expansion and dynamics depending on radiation dose and fractionation.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

DOE OSTI2026

Single-Particle Isotopic Analysis Using the Liquid Sampling-Atmospheric Pressure Glow Discharge Microplasma Coupled to an Orbitrap Mass Spectrometer

Isotope ratio (IR) determinations on individual particles can provide valuable information relative to the sample, including processing and dating, which could be valuable to geological and nuclear material analysis communities. In comparison to “bulk” measurements, in which all particle information is lost and homogenized within a sample, “particle” measurements allow for fingerprinting and can provide unique insights related to the sample’s nano- and micro- compositions. Furthermore, the complex nature of particles, with potential isobaric interferences from either the matrix or other elements within the same particle, poses a significant analytical challenge for conventional mass spectrometry platforms employed for elemental analysis due to their limited mass resolution. Presented here is the first demonstration of an ultrahigh resolution method for single particle (SP) isotopic analysis using the liquid sampling-atmospheric pressure glow discharge (LS-APGD) microplasma ionization source coupled to an Orbitrap mass spectrometer and FTMS Booster X2T acquisition/processing system. For proof of concept, well-characterized CeO 2 microparticles with a nominal diameter of 1.0 μm were analyzed at a mass resolution of ∼330,000. Important instrumental parameters were optimized to enable the detection of single particles. The 142 Ce/ 140 Ce ratio of individual particles and the population average were determined and compared to an SP inductively coupled plasma time-of-flight mass spectrometry (ICP-TOF-MS) analysis. The isotopic accuracy and precision were determined by two methods and found to be in good agreement with the SP-ICP-TOF-MS method, with the linear regression slope method providing a more accurate ratio, showing a ∼1.4% relative difference from the ratio determined from a particle digest. The encouraging performance of the method was further supported by a determined detection limit of 2.9 fg ( 142 Ce). The developed method is anticipated to overcome many of the challenges posed by isobaric interferences encountered in conventional mass spectrometry techniques when analyzing real-world samples for particle isotopic composition.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Lithium-Ion Battery Diagnostics Using Electrochemical Impedance via Machine-Learning

Diagnosing battery states such as health, state-of-charge, or temperature is crucial for ensuring the safety and reliability of electrochemical energy storage systems. While some states, such as temperature, may be measured using cheap sensors, accurate diagnosis of battery health metrics usually requires time-consuming performance measurements, making them infeasible for use in real-world operation. These health metrics can be measured during lab-testing and then estimated on-line using predictive life models or via state observer algorithms such as Kalman filters, but these predictive methods should be supplemented by actual measurement of battery health whenever possible to ensure reliability. Rapid measurement of battery health may be done by various types of fast diagnostic techniques such as electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS), which can be performed in only a few minutes and require only a fraction of the energy and power needed for a full charge and discharge measurement. But there is a substantial challenge for estimating battery health using EIS data, as EIS is sensitive to cell temperature, state-of-charge, current, and resting time in addition to health. Thus, utilizing EIS data to predict battery capacity requires correcting for all these additional variables, a task that is extremely difficult to handle analytically. This talk utilizes machine-learning methods to estimate the effectiveness of battery capacity prediction from EIS data, leveraging a data set of hundreds of EIS measurements recorded at varying temperature and state-of-charge throughout a 500-day aging study of 32 commercial, large-format NMC-Graphite lithium-ion batteries. Using EIS as input to machine-learning models is complicated by the nonlinear response of impedance to battery health, temperature, and state-of-charge, as well as the collinearity between the impedance response at neighboring frequencies, which can easily lead to overfit models. To train robust models, features from EIS data need to be extracted from the data or some subset of critical frequencies selected. Many approaches for extracting and selecting features from EIS data from electrochemical analysis and machine-learning fields were identified for analysis: using the entire raw spectra; selection of one, two, or many frequencies from the entire spectra; selecting interesting points from the EIS measurement using domain knowledge; fitting EIS with an equivalent-circuit model; calculating statistics on the raw impedance values; and reducing the dimensionality of the data using unsupervised linear (principal component analysis) and non-linear (uniform manifold approximation and projection) methods. These approaches were rigorously compared using a machine-learning pipeline approach, training linear, Gaussian process, and random forest regression models and quantifying performance using cross-validation as well as a held-out test set. An artificial neural network model trained on the raw spectra was also tested. Promising pipelines were fine-tuned via Bayesian hyperparameter optimization using cross-validation loss and training with class-specific weights to counter data set imbalance. The most reliable method for utilizing impedance in this work was the selection of two optimal frequencies through an exhaustive search, resulting in about 2% mean absolute error on test data for both Gaussian process and random forest model architectures. Interrogation of a variety of models reveals critical frequencies of 100 Hz and 103 Hz for this data set, though the optimal set of frequencies is not necessarily intuitive, i.e., the best performing models are not simply those that use impedance at frequencies that have the highest correlation to the relative discharge capacity. The best performing model is an ensemble model, which is able to predict battery capacity with 1.9% mean absolute error for unseen cells using impedance recorded at a variety of temperatures and states-of-charge.

battery↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Tutorial on Bayesian analysis of linear shock compression data

Gas gun and other shock compression experiments often produce shock wave velocity measurements that are linearly associated with particle velocity. Traditionally, this empirical relationship is quantified with a single Hugoniot curve that is estimated using least squares regression. However, for downstream modeling and simulation tasks, it is often more useful to have multiple Hugoniot curves in the pressure–volume plane that are consistent with the data. We employ Bayesian uncertainty quantification methods as a framework for propagating measurement uncertainty through to model parameters and predictions. Specifically, this Tutorial shows how to sample multiple Hugoniot curves in the pressure–volume plane that are consistent with the shock wave-particle velocity measurements in a two-step Bayesian approach. First, we obtain an analytical expression for the posterior distribution of the linear model parameters using Bayesian linear regression. Second, we propagate samples from the posterior distribution through the Rankine–Hugoniot equations to yield Hugoniot curves in the pressure–volume plane. The procedure is demonstrated with publicly available data on argon, copper, and nickel, and compared against bootstrapping and linear regression. The Bayesian procedure is shown to be interpretable, computationally inexpensive, and less sensitive than an alternative bootstrapping approach to the removal of the point in the copper dataset that has the largest particle velocity. As a Tutorial on Bayesian methodology for the shock compression community, we provide several derivations and explanations that make this paper self-contained, and make all code and data available at github.com/llnl/BALSCD.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Microbial extracellular polysaccharide production and aggregate stability controlled by switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) root biomass and soil water potential

Deep-rooting perennial grasses are promising feedstocks for biofuel production, especially in marginal soils lacking organic material, nutrients, and/or that experience significant water stress. Perennial grass roots influence surrounding soil conditions and microbial activities, and produce extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) composed primarily of extracellular polysaccharides (EPSac). These polymers can alleviate microbial moisture and nutrient stress, and enhance soil characteristics through improved water retention and aggregate stability—which may in turn enhance carbon persistence. Here, we used a 13 CO 2 greenhouse tracer experiment to examine the effect of switchgrass cultivation on EPSac production and origin in a marginal soil with five fertilization/water treatments (control, +N, +NP, +P, low water), and compared these results with measurements of field soils collected after long-term switchgrass cultivation. Soils with added nitrogen and phosphorus (+NP) had the highest root biomass, EPSac and percentage of water-stable soil aggregates. Multiple linear regression analyses revealed that root biomass and soil water potential were important determinants of soil EPSac production, potentially by controlling carbon supply and diurnal changes in moisture stress. Path analysis showed that soil aggregation was positively correlated with bulk soil EPSac content and also regulated by soil water potential. High mannose content indicated the majority of EPSac was of microbial origin and 13 CO 2 labeling indicated that 0.18% of newly fixed plant carbon was incorporated into EPSac. Analysis of field soils suggests that EPSac is significantly enhanced after long-term switchgrass cultivation. Taken as a whole, our greenhouse and field results demonstrate that switchgrass cultivation can promote microbial production of EPSac, providing a mechanism to enhance aggregation in marginal soils.

13c labeling↗

DOE OSTI2021

Physics-Infused AI/ML Based Digital-Twin Framework for Flow-Induced-Vibration Damage Prediction in a Nuclear Reactor Heat Exchanger

This report summarizes some of the ongoing work related to the development of an expert-elicitation-digital-twin framework for real time damage state prediction in heat exchanger components of a nuclear reactor. The framework is targeted towards predicting damage associated with coupled low cycle fatigue (associated with regular heat-up, cool-down and power operation transients) and high cycle fatigue (associated with flow induced vibration transients). The overall framework will be based on a NoSQL based database, physics-infused-geometry-dependent virtual-sensor data, different AI/ML techniques-based data-driven-predictive-model applications (Apps) and real-time plant sensor measurements available through few existing sensors. Towards this overall goal, this report updates some of the ongoing work, such as on implementation of a NoSQL Database (such as MongoDB), FE based heat transfer analysis of a heat exchanger (e.g. of a PWR steam generator) for generating geometry-dependent virtual sensor data and evaluation of various AI/ML models such as based on multivariate linear regression, ensembled decision-tree based Random-Forest and Gradient-Boosting regression and high-dimensional-kernel-function-transformation based Support-Vector-Machine regression models. The AI/ML models were evaluated for predicting multi-time-series thermal states at thousands of 3D point-clouds

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

The OCEAN ICE mooring compilation: a standardised, pan-Antarctic database of ocean hydrography and current time series

Continuous moored time series of temperature, salinity, pressure and current speed and direction are of great importance for understanding the continental shelf and under-ice-shelf dynamics and thermodynamics that govern water mass transformations and ice melting in and around Antarctic marginal seas. In these regions, icebergs and sea ice make ship-based mooring deployment and recovery challenging. Nevertheless, over decades, expeditions around the fringe of Antarctica sporadically deployed and recovered hundreds of moored instruments, including those facilitated through ice shelves boreholes. These datasets tend to be archived in a wide range of data centres, with, to our knowledge, no clear format standardisation. As a result, systematic analysis of historical mooring time series in the marginal seas is often challenging. Here we present the first version of a standardised pan-Antarctic moored hydrography and current time series compilation, with broad international contributions from data centres, research institutes and individual data owners. The mooring records in this compilation span over five decades, from the 1970s to the 2020s, providing an opportunity for a systematic study of the pan-Antarctic water mass transport and shelf connectivity. As a demonstration of the utility of this compilation, we present spectral analysis of the compiled current velocity time series, which unsurprisingly shows the dominating presence of tidal variability within most records. This component of the variability is fitted using multi-linear regression to tidal frequencies, and the tidal fit is removed from the original time series to leave de-tided variability. Given the limited record durations to months to years, de-tided variability is dominated by synoptic (3–10 d period), intraseasonal (10–80 d) and seasonal (∼6 months–1 year) signals. The spatial distribution of the kinetic energy integrated within frequency bands is presented and discussed within respective regional contexts, and future avenues of research are proposed. This data compilation is assembled under the endorsement of Ocean-Cryosphere Exchanges in ANtarctica: Impacts on Climate and the Earth System (OCEAN ICE) project (https://ocean-ice.eu/, last access: 23 October 2025) funded by the European Commission and UK Research and Innovation. It is available and regularly updated in NetCDF format with the SEANOE database at https://doi.org/10.17882/99922 (Zhou et al., 2024a).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Welch Method and Bootstrapping Applied to Subcritical Gamma Noise

We measured the prompt neutron decay constant 𝛼 of the CROCUS zero-power reactor at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne using cross-power spectral density (CPSD) analysis of gamma-gamma correlations from two trans-stilbene organic scintillators positioned near the reactor core. We measured critical and subcritical states, with water levels ranging from 960 mm (critical) to 800 mm (𝜌=−1.4 $ subcritical). Our analysis used the Welch method, dividing signal segments for fast Fourier transform (FFT) frequency analysis and applying bootstrapping uncertainty quantification that uses Welch-defined segments. Results demonstrated a clear increase in the measured 𝛼 as reactor reactivity decreased, distinguishing critical from subcritical conditions. At the 960-mm critical level, 𝛼 was estimated at 155.9 ± 0.7 s −1 , and for the 800-mm subcritical level, 𝛼 increased significantly to 367.3 ± 6.9 s –1 . A linear regression of subcritical states yielded a critical estimate of 154.0 ± 3.1 s –1 , aligning with the static 𝛼 estimate at critical. The bootstrapping method produced normally distributed 𝛼 estimates, confirming data consistency. The gamma CPSD 𝛼 estimates clearly distinguish reactor states and improve monitoring of zero-power reactors. The future deployment of modular and microreactors as potential candidates for noise analysis is demonstrated in CROCUS, particularly zero-power mock-ups of new designs. The improvement of noise analysis in the subcritical domain from this work will support experimental data for reactor deployment and procedure.

CROCUS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Air separation via a two-step solar thermochemical cycle based on (Ba,La) x Sr 1-x FeO 3-δ : Thermodynamic analysis

A two-step solar thermochemical cycle was considered for air separation to produce N2 based on (Ba,La) x Sr 1-x FeO 3-δ perovskite reduction/oxidation (redox) reactions for A-site fractions of 0 ≤ x ≤ 0.2. The cycle steps encompassed (1) thermal reduction and O 2 release via concentrated solar input and (2) re-oxidation with air to uptake O 2 and produce high-purity N 2 . Thermogravimetry at temperatures between 400 and 1100 °C in atmospheres of 0.005 to 90% O 2 /Ar at 1 bar was performed to measure equilibrium nonstoichiometries. The compound energy formalism was applied to model redox thermodynamics for both Ba 2+ and La 3+ substitution. Non-linear regression was used to determine the empirical parameters based on the thermogravimetric measurements. The model was used to define partial molar reaction enthalpies and entropies and predicted equilibrium oxygen nonstoichiometry as functions of oxide stoichiometry, site fraction, temperature, and O 2 partial pressure. The thermodynamic analysis showed the materials are appealing for air separation at temperatures below 800 °C.

42 ENGINEERING↗