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DOE OSTI2025

2025 Large Load Literature Review

This literature review catalogs more than 90 publications focused on large loads, and groups the documents and resources thematically into 12 categories, (listed below). The 2026 Large Load Literature Review and Data Sources summary reports are available here: https://emp.lbl.gov/publications/2026-large-load-literature-review -Load forecasting -Data sources -Reliability and resource adequacy -Large load interconnection -Demand flexibility -Generation -Co-location -Data center location/infrastructure -Large load tariffs -Policy options -Maps and tools -Design and operations

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Hydropower Operational Flexibilities in Presence of Streamflow and Net-load Uncertainty (Final Technical report)

In the existing operations, hydropower contributions to future system flexibility are generally modeled while maintaining traditional operating rules and constraints in supporting grid operation, such as the balancing of variable renewable energy production. Moreover, operation of large scale hydropower systems on major rivers has been investigated for decades, utilizing various systems engineering approaches, with the evolving electric grid, as the result of renewable resources integration, compounded by the changing climate (variability of river flows, intensification of hydrologic cycle resulting in more frequent extreme events) affecting water availability, the need for more advanced stochastic modeling and effective uncertainty analysis approaches have become necessary. The research results supported by this funding and presented in this report provide a new look at hydropower operational flexibility enforced by the changes identified above. Understanding how hydropower operates in response to the underlying uncertainties with respect to the system constraints is crucial in identifying its operational flexibility potentials. In this project, the flexibility of the operating hydropower facility is described by capturing uncertainties in both water and power system and formulating the operations as a multistage stochastic optimization problem. The proposed approach supports short- to seasonal-term operations and planning decision horizons.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Flexible operation of nuclear hybrid energy systems for load following and water desalination

Nuclear hybrid energy systems (NHES) have the potential to provide dependable and emission-free electricity to the grid while also increasing the flexibility and reliability of the electrical grid. Molten salt reactor (MSR) technology can provide consistent, carbon-free electricity while also increasing efficiency, security, and sustainability and reducing nuclear waste. This study investigates the integration of Molten Salt Reactors (MSR) and conventional Pressurized Water Reactors (PWR) with desalination technologies: Direct Contact Membrane Distillation (DCMD), Multi-Stage Flash Distillation (MSFD), and Reverse Osmosis (RO). Dynamic first-principles models were developed and tested using real grid data from the New York Independent System Operator. The results demonstrate that nuclear power is capable of flexibly responding to changing grid demand while simultaneously producing clean water, particularly during periods of low electricity demand. The MSR-RO system was found to be the most efficient in electricity generation and water production, and all hybrid systems reduced CO2 emissions by 356,000 to 682,000 tons annually. Economic analysis reveals that nuclear desalination technologies are cost-competitive with conventional systems, especially when paired with RO. Finally, these findings confirm the technical feasibility and environmental benefits of nuclear hybrid systems for sustainable electricity and water production.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Novel Modular Heat Engines with sCO 2 Bottoming Cycle Utilizing Advanced Oil-Free Turbomachinery

This report presents the thermal, mechanical, and electric machine design of a 27krpm rotating test rig aimed at reducing technical risks with hermetic oil-free super-critical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) turbomachinery. The test rig rotor system is based on a conceptual turbomachine design discussed that evaluates a sCO 2 waste heat recovery (WHR) unit for land-based gas turbines at natural gas (NG) compressor stations. The key novelty of the hermetic sCO 2 turbomachine concept is the utilization of additively manufactured CO 2 gas bearings and a CO 2 -immersed direct-drive permanent magnet (PM) electric machine. The previous effort on conceptual design identified 3 main technical risks, which included thrust bearing load capacity, rotordynamics, and thermal performance of the system. Therefore, key requirements of the test vehicle include the ability to test the rotor system in a 400psi (27.6 bar) hermetic CO 2 operating environment, apply up to 1,500 lbs (6.7 kN) of rotor thrust loads, capability to assess rotordynamics with radial gas bearings, inclusion of instrumentation to assess thrust bearing load capability, and flexibility for varying secondary cooling flows to confirm thermal model predictions. Design topics such as rotordynamics, bearing design, and electric machine design are addressed, while highlighting critical elements. In addition, additive build trials for Inconel 718 radial and thrust bearings were performed to prove the manufacturability of the bearing design concepts. The results of the design efforts yield a test rig concept with ability to operate at 27,000 rpm, apply thrust loads to 1,500 lbs, deliver CO 2 up to 800psi, and modulate cooling flows.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Brick Schema Standardized Plug Load Control Strategies for Load Reduction: Preprint

Plug loads comprise a significant percentage of commercial building energy consumption. Applying intelligent controls to turn off plug loads when unused can provide dynamic load reduction and flexibility, which are key traits of grid-interactive efficient buildings. This capability is important for equitable decarbonization as it can enable disadvantaged communities to electrify buildings without costly upgrades to electrical infrastructure. In this work, we present the effectiveness of various control strategies along with the operational lessons that informed their design. During a three-year period, we operated over 600 smart outlets in 12 university office buildings. The attached plug loads consisted primarily of printers, TVs, water dispensers, and copiers. After recording baseline power measurements for one year, we designed plug load control (PLC) strategies for each plug load type, use, and for different risk tolerance levels because PLC can potentially be disruptive to daily work. We used the Brick Schema to facilitate the management of plug load locations and other metadata. For advanced controls, we integrated the smart plugs with heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems through the campus building automation system. We found static schedules to be the least disruptive and most predictable for occupants, resulting in 38% and 66% energy savings in two studies. For printers, print server-triggered PLC produced 86% savings, the highest of all strategies with minimal occupant impact. Scheduling of water dispensers and digital signage TVs produced 49% and 70% savings respectively with opportunities to improve performance with the use of HVAC occupancy data.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Flexible Nuclear-Based Integrated Energy System

Presentation on a conceptual study of combining a small modular nuclear reactor (SMR) with a solid oxide fuel cell, solid oxide electrolysis cell, and a gas turbine as an integrated energy system with high operational flexibility and rapid load following. Virtually presented at the MILLENNIUM CLEAN and SUSTAINABLE POWER workshop 2025, University of Genoa, Italy.

flexibility↗
DOE OSTI2025

An Integrated Paradigm for the Management of Delivery Risk in Electricity Markets: From Batteries to Insurance and Beyond

If power systems transition to integrate higher amounts of variable renewable energy sources, storage technologies, and distributed energy resources (DERs), new risk management frameworks are necessary to ensure cost-effective and reliable power system operations. Projects funded by the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) Performance-based Energy Resource Feedback, Optimization, and Risk Management (PERFORM) program aim to contribute new risk management frameworks by developing methods to quantify and manage risk at grid asset and system levels. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) led a PERFORM project in collaboration with the Johns Hopkins University, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), kWh Analytics, Packetized Energy, and Imperial Consultants (ICON). The project addressed two challenges related to risk management in electricity markets: managing net load imbalances and flexibility from DERs. This final technical report presents a list of project accomplishments, activities, and outputs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

ComStock Measure Scenario Documentation: Chiller Replacement

Building on a 3-year effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock (TM) and ComStock (TM) models, this work produces national datasets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of questions regarding their commercial building stock. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual energy consumption (at a subhourly resolution) of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency and demand flexibility end-use load shapes that cover high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to various "what-if" scenarios that can be applied to buildings. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building (or collection of buildings) and a building with an energy efficiency or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time-series profile broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step, as well as annual aggregations. This report describes the modeling methodology for a single end-use savings shape measure - chiller replacement - and briefly introduces key results. The full public dataset can be accessed on the ComStock (TM) data lake or via the Data Viewer at comstock.nrel.gov. The public data set enables users to create custom aggregations of results for their use case (e.g., filter to a specific county).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

ComStock Measure Scenario Documentation: Standard Performance Heat Pump Rooftop Unit With New Windows

Building on a 3-year effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock (TM) and ComStock (TM) models, this work produces national datasets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of questions regarding their commercial building stock. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual energy consumption (at subhourly resolution) of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency and demand flexibility end-use load shapes that cover high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to various "what-if" scenarios that can be applied to buildings. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building (or collection of buildings) and a building with an energy efficiency or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time-series profile broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step, as well as annual aggregations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Frozen Freedom: Unleashing Grocery Store Demand Flexibility: Preprint

Grocery stores consumed approximately 3% of total electricity used by commercial buildings in the U.S. in 2018 (EIA 2018), representing a unique end-use load profile characterized by the critical use of refrigerated display cases. Exploring demand response (DR) scenarios in grocery stores presents an opportunity to enhance the efficiency and sustainability of surrounding communities. In addition, recent studies demonstrate that implementing control algorithms considering demand flexibility strategies can lead to load and peak reductions in standalone refrigerated display cases. Because small business grocery stores operate on thin margins, the energy bill cost savings DR might provide could make a positive difference toward continued operations. Still, uncertainty remains about the extent of demand flexibility potential controls could provide when coupling refrigeration with whole building operation. To enhance economic viability and grid stability, it is essential to quantify the load flexibility capability of grocery stores. Advanced controls can optimize energy consumption by responding to load shedding, shifting, and DR events, as well as daily Time-of-Use (TOU) rates without compromising food safety. Using both quantitative data and interviews with community-based organizations, we developed a full-size store model and two small store models with controlled refrigerated cases, HVAC, and lighting systems based on actual grocery store properties. Through simulations, we have assessed load flexibility strategies with varied DR events. The results highlight potential for energy and peak reduction with advanced or basic controls. However, interviews and data indicate that more support is needed to make DR strategies consistently accessible to small grocery stores.

demand flexibility↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring Grid-Interactive Efficient Building Strategies for Laboratories Through Energy Modeling

Laboratories are often overlooked in demand flexibility research due to constraints on their operations as mission critical facilities, despite the major role they play in an organization's emissions. Laboratories consume 3-4 times more energy than a typical office building and are commonly the largest energy users on any campus. Consequently, most laboratories in the United States are significant contributors to their organization's carbon footprint if their energy needs are met through the combustion of fossil fuels. As part of the initiative to decarbonize laboratories, this report documents an analysis on specifically grid-interactive efficient building (GEB) opportunities for reducing energy costs and emissions associated with laboratory operations. The goal of this initiative was to provide a case study and guidance on how to use OpenStudio and REopt as modeling tools for GEB technologies and strategies in laboratory environments across different climate zones in the United States. The analysis found that efficiency-based GEB strategies had the most significant impact on laboratory operations, while load-shedding and load-shifting GEB strategies produced smaller results. The culmination of these approaches applied across all five climate zones generated on average: 1) 28% energy cost savings and 30% greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions, and 2) 4% enhanced energy cost savings under a time-of-use (TOU) pricing schedule compared to traditional pricing schemes. Grid-interactive efficiency building measures were found to produce the greatest energy savings in both electricity and natural gas, particularly in regions with high electrical loads, such as warm climates for cooling. Laboratories that had high levels of natural gas consumption, meanwhile, experienced the greatest emission reductions. The report concludes with an analysis on the opportunities for flexible loads in lab spaces and how small-scale measures in addition to opaque pricing structures for peak demand could become barriers to demand flexibility planning. The report also explores how electrifying laboratory buildings with heat pumps could reduce energy costs and GHG emissions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Experimental study of a thermal energy storage-integrated heat pump system for load shifting in space cooling and heating

This study experimentally investigates an all-season thermal energy storage-integrated heat pump (TES-HP) system developed to enhance building energy efficiency and support grid-interactive operation through load shifting in both cooling and heating. A 4-ton commercial rooftop air-source heat pump was modified by integrating a hydronic thermal energy storage (TES) unit containing a phase change material (PCM) with a melting temperature of 22.0 °C. The system employs two reversing valves and three electronic expansion valves to enable six operating modes, including normal, TES charging, and TES discharging in both cooling and heating seasons. A subcooling-controlled electronic expansion valve was implemented to mitigate refrigerant maldistribution caused by unequal internal volumes among the heat exchangers. Compared with a baseline heat pump, the TES-HP reduced power consumption by 30–50% during cooling at an ambient temperature of 40.6 °C, and by up to 60% during heating at −15.0 °C, while maintaining high performance under cold-climate conditions. Additionaly to experimental evaluation, a simplified annualized on-peak analysis was conducted to compare the TES-HP with the baseline system, indicating an on-peak electricity reduction of approximately 876 kWhₑ per unit per year and associated on-peak cost savings under time-of-use pricing. These results demonstrate that the TES-HP effectively decouples HP operation from adverse ambient conditions, improving flexibility, resilience, and energy efficiency. This work advances prior research by experimentally proving the integration of PCM-based TES for a year-round, load-flexible HVAC operation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integrated Transmission-Distribution Multi-Period Switching for Wildfire Risk Mitigation: Improving Speed and Scalability with Distributed Optimization: Preprint

With increasingly severe wildfire conditions driven by climate change, utilities must manage the risk of wildfire ignitions from electric power lines. During "public safety power shutoff'" events, utilities de-energize power lines to reduce wildfire ignition risk, which may result in load shedding. Distributed energy resources provide flexibility that can help support the system to reduce load shedding when lines are de-energized. We investigate a coordinated transmission-distribution optimization problem that balances wildfire risk mitigation and load shedding. We model distribution systems that include battery energy storage systems which may support loads when transmission lines are de-energized. This multi-period integrated transmission-distribution optimal switching problem jointly optimizes line switching decisions, the generators' setpoints, load shedding, and the batteries' states of charge, resulting in significant computational challenges. To improve scalability, we decompose the problem over both space and time and apply a distributed optimization algorithm. Using a large-scale synthetic California test case with realistic distribution models and real wildfire risk data, we show that distributed optimization can solve large-scale multi-period switching problems that are otherwise intractable for centralized solvers. We also discuss challenges and future directions for improving the distributed algorithm's convergence performance as the number of time periods increases.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Storing Affordability: Battery Storage as an Asset to Reduce Data Center Cost Shifts

This report examines how battery energy storage systems (BESS) can help utilities accommodate large load growth while protecting affordability for existing ratepayers. Rapid growth in electricity demand from artificial intelligence (AI) data centers is straining the U.S. grid. Furthermore, many new data centers are entering rural markets, which could offer economic benefits but may also pose implementation challenges for smaller utilities. At the same time, retail electricity prices are increasing faster than inflation, elevating customer affordability as a key challenge. While data centers have not been the primary driver of increases in residential prices to date, they have pushed wholesale energy and capacity prices higher in several markets. Fundamental utility cost-allocation principles show that data center growth can be rate-positive for existing customers only if new peak demand grows faster than the costs a utility must incur to serve it. Several factors, including a utility’s degree of wholesale market exposure, forecast uncertainty and stranded-asset risk, and tariff design can determine the outcome of load growth on retail rates. Energy storage can make several affordability contributions in the face of this landscape of uncertainty and market volatility, including deferral of higher-cost grid investments through improved utilization of existing assets and flexibility of new large loads, insulation from volatile wholesale prices through peak shaving, and reliability support to address grid risks stemming from the behavior of AI data center loads. Different potential BESS deployment pathways—utility-scale front-of-the-meter systems, aggregated small-scale storage installations, and data center-sited behind-the-meter storage—are compared against each other and against conventional capacity alternatives. This framework is intended as a conceptual resource to utilities, particularly smaller public utilities with rural service territories, who may be considering the role that energy storage can play in insulating existing ratepayers from data center cost shifts.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Console Water-to-Air Geothermal Heat Pump

Executive Summary Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy’s ResStock™ and ComStock™ models over the past several years, the objective of this work is to produce national datasets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover most of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual sub-hourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. This measure models the conversion of an existing heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system to a series of “console” water-to-air heat pumps served by a ground heat exchanger. Console water-to-air geothermal heat pumps (GHP) are all-in-one packages that have no or minimal ductwork and serve individual spaces. Properly designed ground heat exchanger-coupled systems can offer benefits in energy efficiency relative to “conventional” HVAC systems, as well as facilitating beneficial electrification. Console GHPs can be coupled to a ground loop on the source side and can directly replace electric baseboard heaters or air-source packaged terminal heat pumps. Console GHPs can also bring in outdoor air for ventilation. This measure will be referred to throughout the document as the “Console GHP” upgrade.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Boiler Replacement with Air-Source Heat Pump Boiler and Natural Gas Boiler Backup

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock (™) and ComStock (™) models over the past three years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each timestep. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure - boiler replacement with air-source heat pump boiler with natural gas boiler backup. This measure replaces natural gas boilers for HVAC application by air-source heat pump boilers when applicable and use natural gas boiler backup when the heat pump boiler could not operate due to outdoor air conditions which are below its cutoff temperature. This measure helps to quantify the decarbonization as well as the energy savings potential from the replacement. The measure resulted higher savings in natural gas consumption compared to the increase in electricity consumption, with a ratio of 3. The total natural gas energy consumption was reduced by 41%, whereas the total electricity consumption was increased by 5.3%.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Economizers

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock™ and ComStock™ models over the past 3 years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Boiler Replacement with Air-Source Heat Pump Boiler and Electric Boiler Backup

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock TM and ComStock TM models over the past three years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each timestep. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual sub hourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure—boiler replacement by air-source heat pump boiler. This measure replaces space heating natural gas boilers by air-source heat pump boilers when applicable and helps quantify the decarbonization as well as the energy savings potential from the replacement. The measure resulted higher savings in natural gas consumption compared to the increase in electricity consumption, with a ratio of 2.9. The total natural gas energy consumption was reduced by 20%, whereas the total electricity consumption was increased by 2.5%.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗