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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Time Matters: A Survival Analysis of Public Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Utilization

The rapid adoption of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) places significant demands on public charging infrastructure, making it critical to understand and optimize charger utilization. This study provides one of the most comprehensive analyses of charging behavior to date by applying a survival analysis to a dataset of nearly 16 million level 2 (L2) and direct current (DC) fast charger sessions across the United States from 2017 to 2022. Using Kaplan-Meier curves and log rank tests, our analysis reveals statistically significant and distinct duration patterns influenced by charger type, time of day, and day of the week. We find that L2 charging sessions exhibit high variability tied to venue type, whereas DC sessions are more uniform, typically lasting 30-45 min. This study introduces the operational efficiency score (OES), a metric for standardizing the performance evaluation of charging stations. Our findings offer actionable insights for optimizing charger deployment, developing dynamic pricing strategies to reduce vehicle dwell time, and improving load management for grid operators, ultimately enhancing the efficiency and availability of public charging infrastructure.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Gene Fitness Atlas: A Roadmap for Predicting Evolution

We developed a novel, high-throughput microfluidic device design containing “interaction zones” where progeny cell lines compete against each other allowing for accurate analysis of bacterial cell fitness. The goal of the project was to use the device for two applications: 1) gene knockout screening and 2) antibiotic resistance screening. The microfluidic platform was fabricated using photolithography and soft lithography in polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS). E.coli Keio mutants and fluorescent wildtype parent were chosen for the study. Cells were grown overnight and their loading into the devices and seeding in mother machines was optimized. For mutant screening, the least fit mutant and wildtype parent were cultured individually and then added to the microfluidic device. The mother machines which were seeded with mutant and wildtype were imaged through time lapse microscopy and the growth of cells was observed. For antibiotic screening, wildtype E.coli cells which were grown overnight were added to the device and washed with media containing the antibiotic ampicillin. The growth pattern in presence and absence of ampicillin was observed through time lapse microscopy. It was observed that over a period of four hours, both the mutant and the wildtype divided in the mother machine and pushed daughter cells out into the interaction zone. In case of the antibiotic screening experiment, the fluorescent wildtype divided both in the absence and presence of sublethal concentration of ampicillin. This study is a proof of concept demonstration of high- throughput single cell analysis of cells using a novel microfluidics device.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying agricultural productive use of energy load in Sub-Saharan Africa and its impact on microgrid configurations and costs

The use of advanced energy technologies for agricultural purposes—such as irrigation, refrigeration, crop processing, and egg incubation—has the potential to increase crop yield, reduce vulnerability to changing precipitation patterns, increase shelf life, strengthen income and employment opportunities in rural areas, and reduce emissions by displacing fossil fuel-based technologies. These productive uses of energy (PUE) in remote areas could potentially be powered by microgrids that additionally serve otherwise unelectrified communities, most of which are located in rural Sub-Saharan Africa. Here, in this paper, we use high-resolution geospatial data to estimate the end-use electricity demand for a range of agricultural PUE across Sub-Saharan Africa, and we share these data in an open-access mapping tool. Next, we use REopt®, a techno-economic optimization model of energy systems, to determine the cost and system sizing implications of incorporating agricultural PUE into microgrid designs in Kenya and Zambia. We estimate the upper bound of agricultural PUE demand for irrigation, milling, shelling, refrigeration, and egg incubation across Sub-Saharan to be 16.8 TWh/yr. We find that incorporating local agricultural PUE into microgrid system designs increases the required system sizing while having minimal impact on the levelized cost of energy of these systems. Our analysis is the first to demonstrate the PUE potential in the agricultural sector at a 10x10-kilometer resolution across Sub-Saharan Africa and to show, at scale, how site-specific PUE can impact the cost and sizing of microgrids that are otherwise deployed to serve local household and community load.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Overview of Wendelstein 7-X high-performance operation

The Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) stellarator has completed two consecutive experimental campaigns OP 2.2 (Sep.-Dec. 2024) and OP 2.3 (Feb.-May 2025) under a new operational strategy enabling more than one year of uninterrupted device availability. This approach, supported by exceptionally high subsystem reliability, allowed sustained high-efficiency plasma operations with up to 80–100 discharges per day across a broad range of magnetic configurations. Several key technical upgrades-most notably the first operation of a 1.5 MW class steady-state gyrotron, a new steady-state pellet injector, and advanced real-time feedback control systems significantly enhanced heating, fueling, and plasma control capabilities. Together, these improvements enabled major advances in long-pulse performance, high-β operation, and confinement optimization. Long-pulse discharges achieved 1.8 GJ of injected energy under fully detached divertor conditions, while reduced-field scenarios facilitated record volume-averaged β values approaching 3%. High-performance plasmas with centrally peaked density profiles, created via neutral beam injection (NBI) or sustained pellet fueling, demonstrated strongly reduced turbulent transport and stellarator-record fusion triple products. Complementary studies of power exhaust and divertor heat loads revealed the role of scrape-off-layer drift physics in shaping strike-line patterns under attached conditions. Together, the results from OP 2.2 and OP 2.3 significantly expand the operational space of W7-X and strengthen its role as a leading platform for steady-state stellarator research and reactor-relevant plasma scenarios.

Wendelstein 7-X↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding the structural mechanics of ligated DNA crystals via molecular dynamics simulation

DNA self-assembly is a highly programmable method to construct arbitrary architectures based on sequence complementarity. Among various constructs, DNA crystals are macroscopic crystalline materials formed by assembling motifs via sticky end association. Due to their high structural integrity and size ranging from tens to hundreds of micrometers, DNA crystals offer unique opportunities to study the structural properties and deformation behaviors of DNA assemblies. For example, enzymatic ligation of sticky ends can selectively seal nicks resulting in more robust structures with enhanced mechanical properties. However, the research efforts have been mostly on experiments involving different motif designs, structural optimization, or new synthesis methods, while their mechanics are not yet fully understood. The complex properties of DNA crystals are difficult to study via experiments alone, and numerical simulation can complement and aid the experiments. The coarse-grained molecular dynamics (MD) simulation is a powerful tool that can probe the mechanics of DNA assemblies. Here, we investigate DNA crystals made of four different motif lengths with various ligation patterns (full ligation, major directions, connectors, and in-plane) using oxDNA, an open-source, coarse-grained MD platform. We found that several distinct deformation stages emerge in response to mechanical loading and that the number and the location of ligated nucleotides can significantly modulate structural behaviors. These findings should be useful for predicting crystal properties and thus improving the design.

DNA crystal↗
DOE OSTI2021

Addressing Load Imbalance in Bioinformatics and Biomedical Applications: Efficient Scheduling across Multiple GPUs

Computational bioinformatics and biomedical applications frequently contain heterogeneously sized units of work or tasks, for instance due to variability in the sizes of biological sequences and molecules. Variable-sized workloads lead to load imbalances in parallel implementations which detract from efficiency and performance. Many modern computing resources now have multiple graphics processing units(GPUs) per computer for acceleration. These multiple GPU resources need to be used efficiently through balancing of workloads across the GPUs. OpenMP is a portable directive-based parallel programming API used ubiquitously in bioscience applications to program CPUs; recently, the use of OpenMP directives for GPU acceleration has become possible. Here, motivated by experiences with imbalanced loads in GPU-accelerated bioinformatics applications, we address the load balancing problem using OpenMP task-to-GPU scheduling combined with OpenMP GPU offloading for multiply heterogeneous workloads – loads with both variable input sizes, and simultaneously, variable convergence rates for algorithms with a stochastic component – scheduled across multiple GPUs. We aim to develop strategies which are both easy to use and have lower overheads, and may be incorporated incrementally in existing programs which already make use of OpenMP for CPU-based threading in order to make use of multi-GPU computers. We test different combinations of input size variability and convergence rate variability, and characterize the effects of these different scenarios on the performance of scheduling strategies across multiple GPUs with OpenMP. We present several dynamic scheduling solutions for different parallel patterns, explore optimizations, and provide publicly available example computational kernels to make these strategies easy to use in programs. This work will enable application developers to efficiently and easily use multiple GPUs for imbalanced workloads found in bioinformatics and biomedical applications.

Thavappiragasam, Mathialakan↗
DOE OSTI2022

Feasibility of lead-bismuth-cooled fast reactor with fuel shuffling strategy

This paper investigates the feasibility of fuel shuffling of the Advanced Nitride-fueled Simplified 100 MWe (ANTS-100e) Lead-bismuth-cooled Fast Reactor (LFR). The preliminary design has the active core of 235 cm in diameter and 100 cm high. The core is composed of 138 hexagonal fuel assemblies enclosed with a 15-15Ti steel duct. The core adopts the onion zoning with the two zones of low-enriched uranium for a better breeding capability to maximize the first cycle length to 10 effective full-power years (EFPYs). The fuel shuffling study is performed by using the UNIST in-house Monte Carlo code MCS. The neutronic parameters such as the multiplication factor and burnup are being investigated. The fuel shuffling strategy is evaluated through several loading patterns for flattening radial power distribution. It is also found that the core with fuel shuffling could lengthen the core lifetime by more than 5 EFPYs without introducing fresh fuel. Thus, it appears that the ANTS-100e can be principally designed to have the second cycle with another 10 EFPYs if introducing fresh fuel into the core. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analyzing the Validity of Brazilian Testing Using Digital Image Correlation and Numerical Simulation Techniques

Characterizing the mechanical behavior of rocks plays a crucial role to optimize the fracturing process in unconventional reservoirs. However, due to the intrinsic anisotropy and heterogeneity in unconventional resources, fracture process prediction remains the most significant challenge for sustainable and economic hydrocarbon production. During the deformation tracking under compression, deploying conventional methods (strain gauge, extensometer, etc.) is insufficient to measure the deformation since the physical attachment of the device is restricted to the size of the sample, monitoring limited point-wise deformation, producing difficulties in data retrieval, and a tendency to lose track in failure points, etc. Where conventional methods are limited, the application of digital image correlation (DIC) provides detailed and additional information of strain evolution and fracture patterns under loading. DIC is an image-based optical method that records an object with a camera and monitors the random contrast speckle pattern painted on the facing surface of the specimen. To overcome the existing limitations, this paper presents numerical modeling of Brazilian disc tests under quasi-static conditions to understand the full-field deformation behaviors and finally, it is validated by DIC. As the direct tensile test has limitations in sample preparation and test execution, the Brazilian testing principle is commonly used to evaluate indirectly the tensile strength of rocks. The two-dimensional numerical model was built to predict the stress distribution and full-field deformation on Brazilian disc under compression based on the assumptions of a homogenous, isotropic and linear elastic material. The uniaxial compression test was conducted using the DIC technique to determine the elastic properties of Spider Berea sandstone, which were used as inputs for the simulation model. The model was verified by the analytical solution and compared with the digital image correlation. The numerical simulation results showed that the solutions matched reasonably with the analytical solutions where the maximum deviation of stress distribution was obtained as 14.59%. The strain evolution (normal and shear strains) and displacements along the central horizontal and vertical planes were investigated in three distinguishable percentages of peak loads (20%, 40%, and 90%) to understand the deformation behaviors in rock. The simulation results demonstrated that the strain evolution contours consistently matched with DIC generated contours with a reasonable agreement. The changes in displacement along the central horizontal and vertical planes showed that numerical simulation and DIC generated experimental results were repeatable and matched closely. In terms of validation, Brazilian testing to measure the indirect tensile strength of rocks is still an issue of debate. The numerical model of fracture propagation supported by digital image correlation from this study can be used to explain the fracturing process in the homogeneous material and can be extended to non-homogeneous cases by incorporating heterogeneity, which is essential for rock mechanics field applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Cohesive finite element modeling of the delamination of HTPB binder and HMX crystals under tensile loading

Accurately modeling the mechanical behavior of the polymer binders and the degradation of interfaces between binder and crystal is important to science-based understanding of the macro-scale response of polymer bonded explosives. The paper presents a description of relatively a simple bi-crystal HMX-HTPB specimen and associated tensile loading experiment including computed tomography imaging, the pertinent constitutive theory, and details of numerical simulations used to infer the behavior of the material during the delamination process. Within this work, mechanical testing and direct numerical simulation of this relatively simple bi-crystal system enabled reasonable isolation of binder-crystal interface delamination, in which the effects of the complicated thermomechanical response of explosive crystals were minimized. Cohesive finite element modeling of the degradation and delamination of the interface between a modified HTPB binder and HMX crystals was used to reproduce observed results from tensile loading experiments on bi-crystal specimens. Several comparisons are made with experimental measurements in order to identify appropriate constitutive behavior of the binder and appropriate parameters for the cohesive traction-separation behavior of the crystal-binder interface. This research demonstrates the utility of directly modeling the delamination between binder and crystal within crystal-binder-crystal tensile specimen towards characterizing the behavior of these interfaces in a manner amenable to larger scale simulation of polycrystalline PBX materials. One critical aspect of this approach is micro computed tomography imaging conducted during the experiments, which enabled comparison of delamination patterns between the direct numerical simulation and actual specimen. In addition to optimizing the cohesive interface parameters, one important finding from this investigation is that understanding and representing the strain-hardening plasticity of HTPB binder is important within the context of using a cohesive traction-separation model for the delamination of a crystal-binder system.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A New Configuration of Paralleled Modular ANPC Multilevel Converter Controlled by an Improved Modulation Method for 1 MHz, 1 MW EV Charger

In this work, a new configuration of the modular multilevel converter (MLC) based on the parallel connection of three-level active-neutral-point-clamped (3L-ANPC) cells as well as its improved modulation method is proposed for 1 MHz, 1 MW electric vehicle (EV) megacharger. In the proposed paralleled modular ANPC-MLC, only six high-frequency silicon carbide (SiC) power switches operating at 333 kHz are required to generate 1 MHz switching frequency spectrum. Moreover, the operating voltage of all power devices is halved, the magnitude of the first switching frequency harmonic cluster is decreased by the factor of five, and the load current is equally distributed between the 3L-ANPC legs by employing the proposed improved modulation method. Hence, the modularity, efficiency, and power density of the proposed converter are notably increased, whereas the value of passive components and the overall switching loss are remarkably decreased. In addition, an optimized design of the one 3L-ANPC cell of the proposed paralleled modular ANPC-MLC for 1 MHz, 1MW EV megacharger using Ansys SIwave, Icepak, and Q3D finite element method platforms is presented and analyzed in detail. The provided experimental results of the down-scaled setup verify the feasibility and viability of the proposed configuration as well as its improved switching pattern.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data-Driven Modeling of High-Resolution Residential Load Profiles Using Low-Resolution Smart Meter Measurements

Accurate and high-resolution residential load profiles are essential for power system modeling, demand response planning, and effective grid operation. As the energy sector moves towards a more actively managed distribution system, the ability to understand residential energy consumption at a minute-by-minute scale becomes increasingly critical. High-resolution load profiles provide key insights into demand patterns and user behavior, enabling grid operators to design more effective energy solutions; however, residential load measurements in the field are typically recorded at low resolutions, such as 15-60 minutes, which makes it hard to study the characteristics of different residential customers. This paper addresses these challenges by introducing a data-driven approach to generate realistic, high-resolution residential load profiles based on lowre-solution measurements and weather information. The proposed method retains the key features of the actual residential load measurements while offering appliance-level energy consumption details for each residential building. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed load profile generator, proving its capability to support utilities in optimizing residential energy management and ensuring a more reliable and resilient grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2017

Topographically driven differences in energy and water constrain climatic control on forest carbon sequestration

Mountains are vital to ecosystems and human society given their influence on global carbon and water cycles. Yet the extent to which topography regulates montane forest carbon uptake and storage remains poorly understood. To address this knowledge gap, we compared forest aboveground carbon loading to topographic metrics describing energy balance and water availability across three headwater catchments of the Boulder Creek Watershed, Colorado, USA. The catchments range from 1800 to 3500 m above mean sea level with 46–102 cm/yr mean annual precipitation and -1.2° to 12.3°C mean annual temperature. In all three catchments, we found mean forest carbon loading consistently increased from ridges (27 ± 19 Mg C ha) to valley bottoms (60 ± 28 Mg C ha). Low topographic positions held up to 185 ± 76 Mg C ha, more than twice the peak value of upper positions. Toe slopes fostered disproportionately high net carbon uptake relative to other topographic positions. Carbon storage was on average 20–40 Mg C ha greater on north to northeast aspects than on south to southwest aspects, a pattern most pronounced in the highest elevation, coldest and wettest catchment. Both the peak and mean aboveground carbon storage of the three catchments, crossing an 11°C range in temperature and doubling of local precipitation, defied the expectation of an optimal elevation-gradient climatic zone for net primary production. These results have important implications for models of forest sensitivity to climate change, as well as to predicted estimates of continental carbon reservoirs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Design of a Single Layer Metamaterial for Pressure Offloading of Transtibial Amputees

While using a prosthesis, transtibial amputees may experience pain and discomfort brought on by large pressure gradients at the interface between the residual limb and prosthetic socket. Current prosthetic interface solutions attempt to alleviate these pressure gradients by using soft homogenous liners to reduce and distribute pressures. This research investigates an additively manufactured metamaterial inlay with a tailored mechanical response to reduce peak pressure gradients around the limb. The inlay uses a hyperelastic behaving metamaterial (US10244818) comprised of triangular pattern unit cells which can be 3D printed with walls of various thicknesses controlled by draft angles. The hyperelastic material properties are modeled using a Yeoh 3rd order model. The 3rd order coefficients can be adjusted and optimized, which corresponds to a change in the unit cell wall thickness to create an inlay that can meet the unique offloading needs of an amputee. Finite element analysis simulations evaluated the pressure gradient reduction from: 1) a common homogenous silicone liner, 2) a prosthetist's inlay prescription that utilizes three variations of the metamaterial, and 3) a metamaterial solution with optimized Yeoh 3rd order coefficients. When compared to a traditional homogenous silicone liner for two unique limb loading scenarios, the prosthetist prescribed inlay and the optimized material inlay can achieve equal or greater pressure gradient reduction capabilities. These results show the potential feasibility of implementing this metamaterial as a method of personalized medicine for transtibial amputees by creating a customizable interface solution to meet the unique performance needs of an individual patient.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Opportunities and Challenges to Capturing Distributed Battery Value via Retail Utility Rates and Programs

Distributed battery deployment is increasing with advanced metering, control, and communication technologies, leaving electric utilities with an under-utilized, flexible grid resource in aggregate. Rates can reflect locational and temporal prices while utility incentive-based programs allow DERs to provide direct grid services. However, utilities must balance accurately reflecting dynamic grid conditions versus simple and feasible design that encourages customer participation. Currently, most rates and incentive-based programs are simple, but as penetration of DER and advanced controls increase, dynamic designs could become prevalent. Utilities could encourage providing multiple services to optimize distributed battery dispatch and value streams, however, challenges persist when stacking services across distribution and bulk systems. A DER committed to multiple discrete services concurrently necessitates coordination between operators and a clear hierarchy of commitments. One way to address this is to separate commitments by time or capacity. For services that follow cyclic, predictable patterns, or those that are peak driven with predictability, an operator could ensure sufficient state of charge for participation, leaving time where a distributed battery could otherwise provide different services by segmenting participation temporally. To provide continuous or unexpected services, a battery operator may use state of charge management to reserve some percentage of the battery and segment participation by capacity. Macroeconomic trends, load patterns, generation profiles, and grid configurations drive variation in value and the subsequent implications for utility offerings and how a customer might participate. As distributed battery adoption increases, both regulators and utilities will need to ensure no adverse grid impacts and encourage provision of societal value beyond the customer domain.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fixed-target serial femtosecond crystallography using in cellulo grown microcrystals

The crystallization of recombinant proteins in living cells is an exciting new approach in structural biology. Recent success has highlighted the need for fast and efficient diffraction data collection, optimally directly exposing intact crystal-containing cells to the X-ray beam, thus protecting the in cellulo crystals from environmental challenges. Serial femtosecond crystallography (SFX) at free-electron lasers (XFELs) allows the collection of detectable diffraction even from tiny protein crystals, but requires very fast sample exchange to utilize each XFEL pulse. Here, an efficient approach is presented for high-resolution structure elucidation using serial femtosecond in cellulo diffraction of micometre-sized crystals of the protein HEX-1 from the fungus Neurospora crassa on a fixed target. Employing the fast and highly accurate Roadrunner II translation-stage system allowed efficient raster scanning of the pores of micro-patterned, single-crystalline silicon chips loaded with living, crystal-containing insect cells. Compared with liquid-jet and LCP injection systems, the increased hit rates of up to 30% and reduced background scattering enabled elucidation of the HEX-1 structure. Using diffraction data from only a single chip collected within 12 min at the Linac Coherent Light Source, a 1.8 Å resolution structure was obtained with significantly reduced sample consumption compared with previous SFX experiments using liquid-jet injection. This HEX-1 structure is almost superimposable with that previously determined using synchrotron radiation from single HEX-1 crystals grown by sitting-drop vapour diffusion, validating the approach. This study demonstrates that fixed-target SFX using micro-patterned silicon chips is ideally suited for efficient in cellulo diffraction data collection using living, crystal-containing cells, and offers huge potential for the straightforward structure elucidation of proteins that form intracellular crystals at both XFELs and synchrotron sources.

Lahey-Rudolph, J. Mia (ORCID:0000000152797267)↗
DOE OSTI2017

Template engine applied to rapid modeling

Modeling complex problems can require a significant effort, be subject to human error, and contain repeated patterns of input. SCALE 6.2 and the Used Nuclear Fuel-Storage, Transportation and Disposal Analysis Resource and Data System (UNF-ST-DARDS) have attempted to mitigate these problems with the use of a template engine and template syntax. The template syntax allows redundant input to be consolidated into its simplest pattern and parameterized on the parts that change, reducing effort and likelihood of errors and encapsulating user experience into a reusable model component. This paper presents a summary of rapid modeling benefits and techniques that are facilitated when using templates. Specifically, this paper will discuss how these are applied in conducting as-loaded spent nuclear fuel canister criticality calculations using UNF-ST-DARDS and model perturbation and sampling using SCALE 6.2. (authors)

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

RL-HEMS: Reinforcement Learning Based Home Energy Management System for HVAC Energy Optimization

Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) is one of the major energy consumers in the residential sector. It is important to be able to monitor and control the energy consumed to provide utility services such as load shaping while satisfying the comfort and economic constraints of the homeowner. The objective of this work is to create the optimal schedule for HVAC operation to reduce the cost while satisfying the home-owner and equipment’s constraints using a model-free Reinforcement Learning (RL)-based optimization. The specific goal is to find the right balance between reducing energy cost, consumption, and customer comfort level. Our research effort addresses this optimization problem using multiple components: the development of initial learning test-bed and implementation of RL techniques on a real home. This will enable the rapid evaluation of the RL techniques and provide an early baseline to train before implementation on site. The RL algorithm is designed to learn the energy use patterns and generate the optimized schedule for HVAC within an acceptable time-interval to satisfy the homeowner’s comfort and minimize the energy usage. Our preliminary results are promising and we have observed a 17% reduction in the total cost and a 15% reduction in the power utilization using our RL-based HVAC model—RL-HEMS.

Kotevska, Olivera↗
DOE OSTI2020

Joint Estimation of Behind-the-Meter Solar Generation in a Community

Distribution grid planning, control, and optimization require accurate estimation of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation and electric load in the system. Most of the small residential solar PV systems are installed behind-the-meter making only the net load readings available to the utilities. This paper presents an unsupervised framework for joint disaggregation of the net load readings of a group of customers into the solar PV generation and electric load. Our algorithm synergistically combines a physical PV system performance model for individual solar PV generation estimation with a statistical model for joint load estimation. The electric loads for a group of customers are estimated jointly by a mixed hidden Markov model (MHMM) which enables modeling the general load consumption behavior present in all customers while acknowledging the individual differences. At the same time, the model can capture the change in load patterns over a time period by the hidden Markov states. The proposed algorithm is also capable of estimating the key technical parameters of the solar PV systems. Our proposed method is evaluated using the net load, electric load, and solar PV generation data gathered from residential customers located in Austin, Texas. Testing results show that our proposed method reduces the mean squared error of state-of-the-art net-load disaggregation algorithms by 67%.

behind-the-meter solar generation↗