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At least 91 records · Page 5

How Difficult is it to Reduce Low-Level Cloud Biases With the Higher-Order Turbulence Closure Approach in Climate Models?

Low-level clouds cover nearly half of the Earth and play a critical role in regulating the energy and hydrological cycle. Despite the fact that a great effort has been put to advance the modeling and observational capability in recent years, low-level clouds remains one of the largest uncertainties in the projection of future climate change. Low-level cloud feedbacks dominate the uncertainty in the total cloud feedback in climate sensitivity and projection studies. These clouds are notoriously difficult to simulate in climate models due to its complicated interactions with aerosols, cloud microphysics, boundary-layer turbulence and cloud dynamics. The biases in both low cloud coverage/water content and cloud radiative effects (CREs) remain large. A simultaneous reduction in both cloud and CRE biases remains elusive. This presentation first reviews the effort of implementing the higher-order turbulence closure (HOC) approach to representing subgrid-scale turbulence and low-level cloud processes in climate models. There are two HOCs that have been implemented in climate models. They differ in how many three-order moments are used. The CLUBB are implemented in both CAM5 and GDFL models, which are compared with IPHOC that is implemented in CAM5 by our group. IPHOC uses three third-order moments while CLUBB only uses one third-order moment while both use a joint double-Gaussian distribution to represent the subgrid-scale variability. Despite that HOC is more physically consistent and produces more realistic low-cloud geographic distributions and transitions between cumulus and stratocumulus regimes, GCMs with traditional cloud parameterizations outperform in CREs because tuning of this type of models is more extensively performed than those with HOCs. We perform several tuning experiments with CAM5 implemented with IPHOC in an attempt to produce the nearly balanced global radiative budgets without deteriorating the low-cloud simulation. One of the issues in CAM5-IPHOC is that cloud water content is much higher than in CAM5, which is combined with higher low-cloud coverage to produce larger shortwave CREs in some low-cloud prevailing regions. Thus, the cloud-radiative feedbacks are exaggerated there. The turning exercise is focused on microphysical parameters, which are also commonly used for tuning in climate models. The results will be discussed in this presentation.

Xu, Kuan-Man↗

Control oriented model order reduction for the hydraulic system of an autonomous wheel loader

Control design for an autonomous wheel loader requires a high-fidelity and low-order dynamics model. The objective of order reduction is to decrease the number of states in the model while maintaining performance comparable to the original model. Of all the power components in a wheel loader, the model order reduction for steering and working hydraulic systems is most demanding due to its nonlinear and stiff dynamical nature. This paper describes a physics-inspired model order reduction method that can reduce the model order by close to thirty percent. It is achieved by discarding orders with fast dynamics and consolidating multiple states into less new states. Furthermore, this method can also be extended to other types of off-road vehicles such as excavators, bulldozers, etc. Simulation results demonstrate that the reduced-order model exhibits very similar performance to the full-order model under typical operating conditions of wheel loaders, with an output error of less than six percent.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Simulation of Boundary-Layer Cumulus and Stratocumulus Clouds using a Cloud-Resolving Model With Low- and Third-Order Turbulence Closures

The effects of subgrid-scale condensation and transport become more important as the grid spacings increase from those typically used in large-eddy simulation (LES) to those typically used in cloud-resolving models (CRMs). Incorporation of these effects can be achieved by a joint probability density function approach that utilizes higher-order moments of thermodynamic and dynamic variables. This study examines how well shallow cumulus and stratocumulus clouds are simulated by two versions of a CRM that is implemented with low-order and third-order turbulence closures (LOC and TOC) when a typical CRM horizontal resolution is used and what roles the subgrid-scale and resolved-scale processes play as the horizontal grid spacing of the CRM becomes finer. Cumulus clouds were mostly produced through subgrid-scale transport processes while stratocumulus clouds were produced through both subgrid-scale and resolved-scale processes in the TOC version of the CRM when a typical CRM grid spacing is used. The LOC version of the CRM relied upon resolved-scale circulations to produce both cumulus and stratocumulus clouds, due to small subgrid-scale transports. The mean profiles of thermodynamic variables, cloud fraction and liquid water content exhibit significant differences between the two versions of the CRM, with the TOC results agreeing better with the LES than the LOC results. The characteristics, temporal evolution and mean profiles of shallow cumulus and stratocumulus clouds are weakly dependent upon the horizontal grid spacing used in the TOC CRM. However, the ratio of the subgrid-scale to resolved-scale fluxes becomes smaller as the horizontal grid spacing decreases. The subcloud-layer fluxes are mostly due to the resolved scales when a grid spacing less than or equal to 1 km is used. The overall results of the TOC simulations suggest that a 1-km grid spacing is a good choice for CRM simulation of shallow cumulus and stratocumulus.

Xu, Kuan-Man↗

On the joint bimodality of temperature and moisture near stratocumulus cloud tops

The observed distributions of the thermodynamic variables near stratocumulus top are highly bimodal. Two simple models of sub-grid fractional cloudiness motivated by this observed bimodality are examined. In both models, certain low order moments of two independent, moist-conservative thermodynamic variables are assumed to be known. The first model is based on the assumption of two discrete populations of parcels: a warm-day population and a cool-moist population. If only the first and second moments are assumed to be known, the number of unknowns exceeds the number of independent equations. If the third moments are assumed to be known as well, the number of independent equations exceeds the number of unknowns. The second model is based on the assumption of a continuous joint bimodal distribution of parcels, obtained as the weighted sum of two binormal distributions. For this model, the third moments are used to obtain 9 independent nonlinear algebraic equations in 11 unknowns. Two additional equations are needed to determine the covariance within the two subpopulations. In case these two internal covariance vanish, the system of equations can be solved analytically.

Randall, D. A.↗

The effect of latent heat release on synoptic-to-planetary wave interactions and its implication for satellite observations: Theoretical modeling

Simple models are being developed to simulate interaction of planetary and synoptic-scale waves incorporating the effects of large-scale topography; eddy heat and momentum fluxes (or nonlinear dynamics); radiative heating/cooling; and latent heat release (precipitation) in synoptic-scale waves. The importance of latent heat release is determined in oceanic storm tracks for temporal variability and time-mean behavior of planetary waves. The model results were compared with available observations of planetary and synoptic-scale wave variability and time-mean circulation. The usefulness of monitoring precipitation in oceanic storm tracks by satellite observing systems was ascertained. The modeling effort includes two different low-order quasi-geostrophic models-time-dependent version and climatological mean version. The modeling also includes a low-order primitive equation model. A time-dependent, multi-level version will be used to validate the two-level Q-G models and examine effects of spherical geometry.

Branscome, Lee E.↗

POD Model Reconstruction for Gray-Box Fault Detection

Proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) is the mathematical basis of a method of constructing low-order mathematical models for the "gray-box" fault-detection algorithm that is a component of a diagnostic system known as beacon-based exception analysis for multi-missions (BEAM). POD has been successfully applied in reducing computational complexity by generating simple models that can be used for control and simulation for complex systems such as fluid flows. In the present application to BEAM, POD brings the same benefits to automated diagnosis. BEAM is a method of real-time or offline, automated diagnosis of a complex dynamic system.The gray-box approach makes it possible to utilize incomplete or approximate knowledge of the dynamics of the system that one seeks to diagnose. In the gray-box approach, a deterministic model of the system is used to filter a time series of system sensor data to remove the deterministic components of the time series from further examination. What is left after the filtering operation is a time series of residual quantities that represent the unknown (or at least unmodeled) aspects of the behavior of the system. Stochastic modeling techniques are then applied to the residual time series. The procedure for detecting abnormal behavior of the system then becomes one of looking for statistical differences between the residual time series and the predictions of the stochastic model.

Park, Han↗

Simplified simulation models for control studies of turbojet engines

The essential dynamical characteristics of a simple single spool turbojet engine were determined through simulation of low order system models on an analog computer. An accurate model was studied and system complexity was reduced through various linearizations and approximations. A derivation of a seventh order simplified simulation model is presented with a derivation of an even simpler third order model, and simulation results from each. The control problem studied is one of getting from zero fuel flow equilibrium to a high thrust equilibrium while taking into account surge margin and turbine inlet temperature constraints.

Brennan, T. C.↗

Component model reduction via the projection and assembly method

The problem of acquiring a simple but sufficiently accurate model of a dynamic system is made more difficult when the dynamic system of interest is a multibody system comprised of several components. A low order system model may be created by reducing the order of the component models and making use of various available multibody dynamics programs to assemble them into a system model. The difficulty is in choosing the reduced order component models to meet system level requirements. The projection and assembly method, proposed originally by Eke, solves this difficulty by forming the full order system model, performing model reduction at the the system level using system level requirements, and then projecting the desired modes onto the components for component level model reduction. The projection and assembly method is analyzed to show the conditions under which the desired modes are captured exactly; to the numerical precision of the algorithm.

Bernard, Douglas E.↗

Optimal guidance and propulsion control for transatmospheric vehicles

Problems associated with on-board trajectory optimization and with the synthesis of guidance laws are addressed for ascent to LEO of an air-breathing, single-stage-to-orbit vehicle. A multimode propulsion system is assumed which incorporates turbojet, ramjet, scramjet, and rocket engines. An energy-state approximation is applied to a four-state dynamic model for flight of a point mass over a spherical nonrotating earth. An algorithm for generating fuel-optimal climb profiles is derived via singular perturbation theory. This algorithm results from application of the minimum principle to a low-order dynamic model that includes general functional dependence on angle of attack and a normal component of thrust. Switching conditions are derived which, under appropriate assumptions, govern optimal transition from one propulsion mode to another. The use of bank angle to modulate the magnitude of the vertical component of lift is shown to improve the index performance. Numerical results illustrate the nature of the resulting fuel-optimal climb paths.

Corban, J. E.↗

Hydrodynamic Modelling for Tidal Energy Kites: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-24-30123

The primary goal of the work is to improve accuracy of hydrodynamic loads acting on the lifting surface of the kite turbine due to complex air-water-lifting body interaction in a low-order numerical model using high-fidelity numerical input. The result of this study will help the Participant better design control algorithms for the kite turbine so that the turbine can harvest more energy while maintaining stability of the platform as well as its reliability. The use of hydrodynamic coefficients/load components from computational fluid dynamic simulation will inform better inputs for a medium-fidelity dynamic model (specifically an OrcaFlex model) which is intended for use in rapid design iterations in the design process.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Aeroelastic System Development Using Proper Orthogonal Decomposition and Volterra Theory

This research combines Volterra theory and proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) into a hybrid methodology for reduced-order modeling of aeroelastic systems. The out-come of the method is a set of linear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) describing the modal amplitudes associated with both the structural modes and the POD basis functions for the uid. For this research, the structural modes are sine waves of varying frequency, and the Volterra-POD approach is applied to the fluid dynamics equations. The structural modes are treated as forcing terms which are impulsed as part of the uid model realization. Using this approach, structural and uid operators are coupled into a single aeroelastic operator. This coupling converts a free boundary uid problem into an initial value problem, while preserving the parameter (or parameters) of interest for sensitivity analysis. The approach is applied to an elastic panel in supersonic cross ow. The hybrid Volterra-POD approach provides a low-order uid model in state-space form. The linear uid model is tightly coupled with a nonlinear panel model using an implicit integration scheme. The resulting aeroelastic model provides correct limit-cycle oscillation prediction over a wide range of panel dynamic pressure values. Time integration of the reduced-order aeroelastic model is four orders of magnitude faster than the high-order solution procedure developed for this research using traditional uid and structural solvers.

Lucia, David J.↗

Multidisciplinary optimization of aeroservoelastic systems using reduced-size models

Efficient analytical and computational tools for simultaneous optimal design of the structural and control components of aeroservoelastic systems are presented. The optimization objective is to achieve aircraft performance requirements and sufficient flutter and control stability margins with a minimal weight penalty and without violating the design constraints. Analytical sensitivity derivatives facilitate an efficient optimization process which allows a relatively large number of design variables. Standard finite element and unsteady aerodynamic routines are used to construct a modal data base. Minimum State aerodynamic approximations and dynamic residualization methods are used to construct a high accuracy, low order aeroservoelastic model. Sensitivity derivatives of flutter dynamic pressure, control stability margins and control effectiveness with respect to structural and control design variables are presented. The performance requirements are utilized by equality constraints which affect the sensitivity derivatives. A gradient-based optimization algorithm is used to minimize an overall cost function. A realistic numerical example of a composite wing with four controls is used to demonstrate the modeling technique, the optimization process, and their accuracy and efficiency.

Karpel, Mordechay↗

A reduced-order modeling of a tubular solar reactor for long duration thermochemical energy storage

The storage of solar energy in a solid form, referred to as a “solar fuel”, can be achieved through a process known as endothermic solar thermochemistry. This process transforms the absorbed solar energy into a stable and retrievable form that can be stored for extended periods of time. This paper presents a low–order heat transfer model of a counter–current tubular falling bed reactor designed to produce thermally reduced magnesium manganese oxide pellets for long duration thermochemical energy storage. The energy required for the endothermic reduction was supplied by concentrated solar energy or renewable electricity via indirect heating of the gas and solid reactants flowing in a ceramic tube. The counter-current gas flow enhances the mixing of the solid particles with the heat recuperation zone, allowing the gas and particles to enter and exit the tubular reactor close to room temperature. Further, the reactor was vertically oriented and was heated circumferentially by an adjustable level heat flux along a finite segment of its length. The temperature distribution of the reactor in response to transient changes along the tube was modeled by considering conduction, convection, and radiation heat transfer. Governing equations for the heat transfer model were solved by discretizing the reactor tube into a finite number of control volumes and using an energy balance for the heat exchange between the reactor wall, gas, and particles within the control volume. The energy absorbed during this endothermic reaction was modeled numerically by fitting the data of the chemical conversion rate with the corresponding temperature of particles in the heating zone. The numerical model has been experimentally validated using a reactor prototype made of a 121.92 cm alumina tube heated by a 7kW electric tube–furnace. The alumina tube receives magnesium manganese oxide pellets of 3.66±0.516 mm in diameter from the top, and a counter–current gas flow from the bottom. The reactor wall temperature was monitored by six thermocouples installed along the reactor tube length. The experimental procedure was numerically simulated, and the temperature variation along the reactor tube was compared with a matrix of experimental runs for a range of particles mass flowrates (0.75–1.25g/s) and corresponding gas flowrates (36–65 SLPM). The reactor system was heated gradually from room temperature to a steady state temperature of 1673K, and then cooled down to room temperature. The heating and cooling processes were simulated, and the numerical and experimental results were compared throughout processes. The numerical model showed similar trends to the experimental results, with an error of 0.69 to 7.9% for the particle inlet and 0.7 to 7.9% for the gas inlet during steady-state operation. The proposed numerical model can be implemented as a simplified physical model to design a feedback control system to regulate reactor temperature.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Implementation of a Model Predictive Control Strategy to Regulate Temperature Inside Plug-Flow Solar Reactor With Countercurrent Flow

Abstract Solar-driven thermochemical energy storage systems are proven to be promising energy carriers (solar fuels) to utilize solar energy by using reactive solid-state pellets. However, the production of solar fuel requires a quasi-steady-state process temperature, which represents the main challenge due to the transient nature of solar power. In this work, an adaptive model predictive controller (MPC) is presented to regulate the temperature inside a tubular solar reactor to produce solid-state solar fuel for long-term thermal storage systems. The solar reactor system consists of a vertical tube heated circumferentially over a segment of its length by concentrated solar power, and the reactive pellets (MgMn2O4) are fed from the top end and flow downwards through the heated tube. A countercurrent flowing gas supplied from the lower end interacts with flowing pellets to reduce it thermochemically at a temperature range of 1000—1500 °C. A low-order physical model was developed to simulate the dynamics of the solar reactor including the reaction kinetics, and the proposed model was validated numerically by using a 7-kW electric furnace. The numerical model then was utilized to design the MPC controller, where the control system consists of an MPC code linked to an adaptive system identification code that updates system parameters online to ensure system robustness against external disturbances (sudden change in the flow inside the reactor), model mismatches, and uncertainty. The MPC controller parameters are tuned to enhance the system performance with minimum steady-state error and overshoot. The controller is tested to track different temperature ranges between 500 °C and 1400 °C with different particles/gas mass flowrates and ramping temperature profiles. Results show that the MPC controller successfully regulated the reactor temperature within ± 1 °C of its setpoint and maintained robust performance with minimum input effort when subjected to sudden changes in the amount of flowing media and the presence of chemical reaction.

Engineering↗

Neural Network-Based Electric Vehicle Range Prediction for Smart Charging Optimization

Range prediction is a standard feature in most modern road vehicles, allowing drivers to make informed decisions about when to refuel. Most vehicles make range predictions through data- or model-driven means, monitoring the average fuel consumption rate or using a tuned vehicle model to predict fuel consumption. The uncertainty of future driving conditions makes the range prediction problem challenging, particularly for less pervasive battery electric vehicles (BEV). Most contemporary machine learning-based methods attempt to forecast the battery SOC discharge profile to predict vehicle range. In this work, we propose a novel approach using two recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to predict the remaining range of BEVs and the minimum charge required to safely complete a trip. Each RNN has two outputs that can be used for statistical analysis to account for uncertainties; the first loss function leads to mean and variance estimation (MVE), while the second results in bounded interval estimation (BIE). These outputs of the proposed RNNs are then used to predict the probability of a vehicle completing a given trip without charging, or if charging is needed, the remaining range and minimum charging required to finish the trip with high probability. Training data was generated using a low-order physics model to estimate vehicle energy consumption from historical drive cycle data collected from medium-duty last-mile delivery vehicles. Here, the proposed method demonstrated high accuracy in the presence of day-to-day route variability, with the root-mean-square error (RMSE) below 6% for both RNN models.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Nonlinear dynamics of combustor azimuthal modes: Experiments and modeling

This paper provides an experimental and theoretical investigation of azimuthal instabilities in a lean, premixed combustor. It presents data from a high Reynolds number, industrial-scale facility with multiple fuel stages that enable variation of radial and azimuthal symmetries. The combustor exhibits a variety of behaviors – including standing, spinning, mixed waves, and intermittent behaviors, as well as periodic limit cycles and quasi-periodic oscillations – depending upon varying power and azimuthal symmetry. A second key objective of this paper is to present a weakly nonlinear framework that is used to understand and interpret these results, showing the influence of eigenmode degeneracy, background noise, and azimuthal non-uniformities in mean quantities such as temperature and flame-acoustic coupling. In particular, this analysis shows the importance of the linear instability growth/damping rate and azimuthal non-uniformities in controlling the relative prominence of standing, spinning, or mixed waves at the limit cycle, as well as the preference in the spinning direction. It also shows the conditions under which single frequency or quasi-periodic oscillations are dominant, and how these are more fundamentally influenced by azimuthal non-uniformities and background noise.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Parameter identification methods for low-order gray box building energy models: A critical review

The body of knowledge on gray box building energy modeling (GBBEM) has been developed over the past few decades and has undergone some important changes recently. Starting with simple methods and simple buildings, the science of GBBEM has grown to encompass complex and more computationally intensive techniques and complex commercial buildings. Numerous works including a recent review have considered model structure and inputs in a nearly systematic way, but no extant work systematically reviews the approaches for GBBEM parameter search initialization and final identification, despite this being arguably the most difficult and impactful part of the modeling process. To this end, we critically review 55 extant works describing advantages, limitations, and domain of applicability of several classes of parameter initialization and optimization techniques specifically for GBBEM. We categorize the classes of methods and analyze the evidence of their applicability for different applications within the field of GBBEM. We find an emerging consensus that initialization of parameter searches for anything other than the simplest building elements is often challenging and sometimes requires a stochastic approach to begin the parameter identification process. After this initial process, faster methods have been used in some cases but often the nature of the problem requires stochastic methods for this portion of the process as well. For less complex systems, more deterministic and efficient methods have been shown to be effective. Finally, we draw conclusions as to the domain of applicability of different classes of initialization and optimization techniques for GBBEEM and offer suggestions for research directions that are likely to prove fruitful.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗