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DOE OSTI2023

Estimating and Calibrating DER Model Parameters Using Levenberg–Marquardt Algorithm in Renewable Rich Power Grid

The proliferation of inverter-based distributed energy resources (IBDERs) has increased the number of control variables and dynamic interactions, leading to new grid control challenges. For stability analysis and designing appropriate protection controls, it is important that IBDER models are accurate. This paper focuses on the accurate estimation and parameter calibration of DER_A, a recently proposed aggregated IBDER model. In particular, we focus on the parameters of the reactive power–voltage regulation module. We formulate the problem of parameter tuning as a non-linear least square minimization problem and solve it using the Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) method. The LM method is primarily chosen due to its flexibility in adaptively selecting between the steepest descent and Gauss–Newton methods through a damping parameter. The LM approach is used to minimize the error between the actual measurements and the estimated response of the model. Further, the computational challenges posed by the numerical calculation of the Jacobian are tackled using a quasi-Newton root-finding approach. The proposed method is validated on a real feeder model in the northeastern part of the United States. The feeder is modeled in OpenDSS and the measurements thus obtained are fed to the DER_A model for calibration. The simulation results indicate that our approach is able to successfully calibrate the relevant model parameters quickly and with high accuracy, with a total sum of square error of 3.57 × 10 –7 .

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 results: cell-based coadds and METADETECTION weak lensing shape catalogue

We present the metadetection weak lensing galaxy shape catalogue from the 6-yr Dark Energy Survey (DES Y6) imaging data. This data set is the final release from DES, spanning 4422 deg 2 of the southern sky. We describe how the catalogue was constructed, including the two new major processing steps, cell-based image coaddition, and shear measurements with metadetection. The DES Y6 M etadetection weak lensing shape catalogue consists of 151 922 791 galaxies detected over riz bands, with an effective number density of n eff = 8.22 galaxies per arcmin 2 and shape noise of σ e = 0.29. We carry out a suite of validation tests on the catalogue, including testing for point spread function (PSF) leakage, testing for the impact of PSF modelling errors, and testing the correlation of the shear measurements with galaxy, PSF, and survey properties. In addition to demonstrating that our catalogue is robust for weak lensing science, we use the DES Y6 image simulation suite to estimate the overall multiplicative shear bias of our shear measurement pipeline. We find no detectable multiplicative bias at the roughly half-per cent level, with m = (3.4 ± 6.1) x 10 –3 , at 3σ uncertainty. This is the first time both cell-based coaddition and Metadetection algorithms are applied to observational data, paving the way to the Stage-IV weak lensing surveys.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optimal Experimental Design for Inverse Problems in the Presence of Observation Correlations

Optimal experimental design (OED) is the general formalism of sensor placement and decisions on the data collection strategy for engineered or natural experiments. This problem is prevalent in many critical fields such as battery design, numerical weather prediction, geosciences, environmental and urban studies. State-of-the-art computational methods for experimental design do not accommodate correlation structure in observational errors produced by many expensive-to-operate devices such as X-ray machines, radars, and satellites. Discarding evident data correlations leads to biased results, higher expenses, and waste of valuable resources. We present a general formulation of the OED formalism for model-constrained large-scale Bayesian linear inverse problems, where measurement errors are generally correlated. The proposed approach utilizes the Hadamard product of matrices to formulate the weighted-likelihood, and is valid for both finite as well as infinite-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems. Extensive numerical experiments are carried out for empirical verification of the proposed approach using an advection-diffusion model, where the objective is to optimally place a small set of sensors, under a limited budget, to predict the concentration of a contaminant in a closed and bounded domain.

Correlated observations↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning Screening of Metal-Ion Battery Electrode Materials

Here, in this work we present deep neural network regression machine learning models (ML) for predicting the average voltage and the percentage change in volume of battery electrodes upon charging and discharging with metal ions. Our models exhibit good performance as measured by the average mean absolute error obtained from a 10-fold cross-validation as well as on independent test sets. We further assess the robustness our ML models by investigating their screening potential beyond the training database. We produce novel Na-ion electrodes by systematically replacing Li-ions in the original database by Na-ions, and then selecting a set of 22 electrodes that exhibit a good performance in energy density as well as small volume variations upon charging and discharging, as predicted by the machine learning model. The ML predictions for these new materials are then compared to quantum-mechanics based calculations. Our results reaffirm the significant role of machine learning techniques in the exploration of materials for battery applications.

,electrode volume change↗

DOE OSTI2021

The completed SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: N-body mock challenge for the eBOSS emission line galaxy sample

ABSTRACT Cosmological growth can be measured in the redshift space clustering of galaxies targeted by spectroscopic surveys. Accurate prediction of clustering of galaxies will require understanding galaxy physics, which is a very hard and highly non-linear problem. Approximate models of redshift space distortion (RSD) take a perturbative approach to solve the evolution of dark matter and galaxies in the universe. In this paper, we focus on extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic (eBOSS) emission line galaxies (ELGs) that live in intermediate mass haloes. We create a series of mock catalogues using haloes from the Multidark and outer rim dark matter only N-body simulations. Our mock catalogues include various effects inspired by baryonic physics such as assembly bias and the characteristics of satellite galaxies kinematics, dynamics, and statistics deviating from dark matter particles. We analyse these mocks using the TNS RSD model in Fourier space and the convolution Lagrangian perturbation theory (CLPT) in configuration space. We conclude that these two RSD models provide an unbiased measurement of RSD within the statistical error of our mocks. We obtain the conservative theoretical systematic uncertainty of $3.3{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$, $1.8{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$, and $1.5{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ in fσ8, α∥, and α⊥, respectively, for the TNS and CLPT models. We note that the estimated theoretical systematic error is an order of magnitude smaller than the statistical error of the eBOSS ELG sample and hence are negligible for the purpose of the current eBOSS ELG analysis.

Alam, Shadab↗

DOE OSTI2023

Net Load Forecasting With Disaggregated Behind-the-Meter PV Generation

As worldwide use of residential photovoltaic (PV) systems grows, system operators and utilities will need to transition from forecasting pure demand to forecasting net load with behind-the-meter (BTM) PV generation. However, PV generation can be difficult to predict and the measurements of PV generation from BTM residential systems are often invisible behind a measurement of the net load, making net load forecasting challenging. This paper proposes a novel two-stage framework for net load forecasting in areas with limited observability and high BTM PV generation. First, the profiles of observable customers are used to disaggregate the net load measurements into the pure load and PV generation. Then, separate models are used to forecast the PV generation and pure load individually, and the results are combined for a net load forecast. Further, this paper also proposes a compensator for correcting the error of the net load forecast, using historical forecast errors of the PV generation, pure load, and net load. The proposed framework is tested through two case studies for areas with high BTM PV penetration and less than 10% observable customers. The two-stage forecasting model is compared to two benchmark methods - a time series forecasting model, and a model that forecasts the net load directly using historical net load measurements. Results show that the proposed disaggregation-forecasting framework reduces the error of the net load forecast compared to both benchmark models. In addition, when the net load forecast error is periodic, the compensator can correct the error to improve the forecast accuracy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Di-CNN: Domain-Knowledge-Informed Convolutional Neural Network for Manufacturing Quality Prediction

In manufacturing, convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are widely used on image sensor data for data-driven process monitoring and quality prediction. However, as purely data-driven models, CNNs do not integrate physical measures or practical considerations into the model structure or training procedure. Consequently, CNNs’ prediction accuracy can be limited, and model outputs may be hard to interpret practically. This study aims to leverage manufacturing domain knowledge to improve the accuracy and interpretability of CNNs in quality prediction. A novel CNN model, named Di-CNN, was developed that learns from both design-stage information (such as working condition and operational mode) and real-time sensor data, and adaptively weighs these data sources during model training. It exploits domain knowledge to guide model training, thus improving prediction accuracy and model interpretability. A case study on resistance spot welding, a popular lightweight metal-joining process for automotive manufacturing, compared the performance of (1) a Di-CNN with adaptive weights (the proposed model), (2) a Di-CNN without adaptive weights, and (3) a conventional CNN. The quality prediction results were measured with the mean squared error (MSE) over sixfold cross-validation. Model (1) achieved a mean MSE of 6.8866 and a median MSE of 6.1916, Model (2) achieved 13.6171 and 13.1343, and Model (3) achieved 27.2935 and 25.6117, demonstrating the superior performance of the proposed model.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Surrogate modeling for efficiently, accurately and conservatively estimating measures of risk

We present a surrogate modeling framework for conservatively estimating measures of risk from limited realizations of an expensive physical experiment or computational simulation. Risk measures combine objective probabilities with the subjective values of a decision maker to quantify anticipated outcomes. Given a set of samples, we construct a surrogate model that produces estimates of risk measures that are always greater than their empirical approximations obtained from the training data. These surrogate models limit over-confidence in reliability and safety assessments and produce estimates of risk measures that converge much faster to the true value than purely sample-based estimates. We first detail the construction of conservative surrogate models that can be tailored to a stakeholder’s risk preferences and then present an approach, based on stochastic orders, for constructing surrogate models that are conservative with respect to families of risk measures. Our surrogate models include biases that permit them to conservatively estimate the target risk measures. We provide theoretical results that show that these biases decay at the same rate as the L 2 error in the surrogate model. Numerical demonstrations confirm that risk-adapted surrogate models do indeed overestimate the target risk measures while converging at the expected rate.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

High Impedance Fault Detection Through Quasi-Static State Estimation: A Parameter Error Modeling Approach

This paper presents a model for detecting high impedance faults using parameter error modeling and a two step per-phase weighted-least squares state estimation process. The proposed scheme leverages the use of Phasor Measurement Units and synthetic measurements to identify per-phase power flow and injection measurements which indicate a parameter error through ?2 Hypothesis Testing applied to the composed measurement error. Although current and voltage waveforms are commonly analyzed for high-impedance fault detection, wide area power flow and injection measurements, which are already inherent to the state estimation process, also show promise for real-world high-impedance fault detection applications. The error distributions after detection share the measurement function error spread observed in proven parameter error diagnostics and can be applied to high-impedance fault identification. Further, this error spread across measurement functions related to the fault will be clearly discerned from measurement error. Case studies are performed on the IEEE 33-Bus Distribution System along with the proposed model in Simulink.

Cooper, Austin↗

DOE OSTI2025

Interpretable ensemble learning unveils main aerosol optical properties in predicting cloud condensation nuclei number concentration

Variations in cloud condensation nuclei number concentration (N CCN ) significantly influence cloud microphysics, yet direct N CCN measurements remain challenging. Here, we present an N CCN ensemble learning (NEL) model utilizing ensemble learning and interpretability analysis on aerosol optical parameters. Validated at two land sites, two ocean sites and one polar site within the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program, the mean absolute percentage error range of the NEL model across different environments is from 12% to 36%, demonstrating high accuracy. Key findings reveal that aerosol optical parameters can serve as predictors for N CCN . Aerosol scattering and backscattering coefficients, absorption coefficient, backscatter fraction (BSF), and Ångström exponent (AE) are positively correlated with N CCN , while single scattering albedo shows negative correlations. N CCN prediction at land sites is highly sensitive to BSF, largely driven by the backscattering coefficient, as fine particles dominate in these sites. At ocean sites, N CCN prediction is more sensitive to AE, primarily influenced by the scattering coefficient, due to the higher proportion of larger particles. At the polar site, N CCN prediction shows sensitivity to both BSF and AE, mainly driven by the scattering coefficient, as polar sites are cleaner and contain larger particles. These differences reflect the variation in particle size and number concentration across different environments.

Atmospheric science↗

DOE OSTI2024

Geophysical and Environmental Monitoring Data, and Subsurface Flow Modelling Results for Chicken Bone Meadow, Mt. Snodgrass, Crested Butte, CO

This dataset includes geoelectrical monitoring data acquired between October 2021 and November 2022, soil moisture and temperature data, groundwater data obtained from borehole SNIB covering the period from June 2021 to September 2022, and hydrological modelling results. The data were acquired to investigate how variations in bedrock type and topography, and vegetation cover control subsurface flow dynamics. To provide insights into the subsurface flow dynamics and their controls, a monitoring transect was installed at the Chicken Bone Meadow, Mt. Snodgrass, Crested Butte, CO, measuring the spatio-temporal variations of soil moisture, soil and snow temperature, subsurface electrical resistivity variations, and groundwater dynamics. Field data are organized in a folder structure, with Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) data being provided as one file per measurement, and data of the soil moisture and temperature sensors being provided as text files covering the entire monitoring period. The ‘Locations.csv’ file contains the location of all sensors, given in NAD83 – UTM Zone 13N. ERT monitoring data has been processed to filter data based on reciprocal errors (data with errors > 30% were removed), a linear error model was fitted to each survey, and to ensure a constant set of measurements for time-lapse inversion, filtered data were interpolated and assigned a 100% measurement error. Soil moisture and temperature data were acquired at 15 min intervals, and averaged to provide 1h data. Weather data and borehole data (groundwater depth, conductivity and temperature) were acquired at 30 min intervals, and are provided as daily measurements; all measurements are averaged, except of precipitation values, which are given as daily accumulation. The hydrological model was set up along the ERT monitoring transect, and net infiltration was used as surface boundary condition and derived from the weather data. Four different results are provided, (1) results for a parameterization using hydraulic permeability and porosity as derived from the ERT data through petrophysical relationships, and (2) three simplified model results, using 1 to 3 geological layers above the bedrock. Modelling was performed using PFLOTRAN, and for each model the PFLOTRAN input files are provided. The result files include weekly hydrological modelling results (e.g., saturation, velocities, pressures), as well as the model parameterization. The dataset additionally includes a file-level metadata (flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata; and a data dictionary (dd.csv) file that contains column/row headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Novel application of the modal strain energy technique for state-of-the-art damping predictions

Structural damping, which measures the energy dissipation of a vibrating structure, is a key modeling input for lightweight structures but is notoriously hard to predict. This work utilizes vibration-based measurements of centimeter-scale coupons and the modal strain energy approach to predict structural damping of a lightly damped structure. The approach was originally validated with panels shorter than a meter in length. This work extends the validation to a 2.75 m beam made of unidirectional and biaxial glass fiber laminates bonded by adhesive. The comparison between three-dimensional finite element model predictions and full-scale experimental measurements of damping show an average error of 5.2% for the first five modes. Additionally, the modal strain energy approach is newly applied with a one-dimensional geometrically exact beam theory model and a two-dimensional sectional analysis solver. This beam approach accurately predicts the damping behavior of the first bending modes but loses accuracy for higher order modes that are dominated by three-dimensional effects. This novel approach provides faster simulations while allowing arbitrary beam cross sections. The paper also investigates traditional and high-force dynamic mechanical analysis to measure structural damping of coupons. Both alternatives show significant errors in attempted validation against the theoretical thermoelastic damping of aluminum coupons.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Transfer learning for analysis of collective and non-collective Thomson scattering spectra

Thomson scattering (TS) diagnostics provide reliable, minimally perturbative measurements of fundamental plasma parameters, such as electron density (⁠n e ) and electron temperature (⁠T e ⁠). Deep neural networks can provide accurate estimates of ⁠n e and T e when conventional fitting algorithms may fail, such as when TS spectra are dominated by noise, or when fast analysis is required for real-time operation. Although deep neural networks typically require large training sets, transfer learning can improve model performance on a target task with limited data by leveraging pre-trained models from related source tasks, where select hidden layers are further trained using target data. We present five architecturally diverse deep neural networks, pre-trained on synthetic TS data and adapted for experimentally measured TS data, to evaluate the efficacy of transfer learning in estimating n e and T e in both the collective and non-collective scattering regimes. We evaluate errors in n e and T e estimates as a function of training set size for models trained with and without transfer learning, and we observe decreases in model error from transfer learning when the training set contains ≲ 200 experimentally measured spectra.

Artificial neural networks↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessment of errors in analytic modeling of permanent magnet electron spectrometers for laser-plasma accelerators

Here, we assess the error in three treatments of a critical electron beam diagnostic for laser-plasma acceleration (LPA) experiments: a permanent magnet electron spectrometer. Since LPA electron spectrometers are often difficult to calibrate due to the scarcity of well-characterized, tunable electron beam sources in the appropriate energy range and the mechanical complexity of electron spectrometers, the standard of calibration is Hall probe measurements. We first compare the electron spectrometer performance between SIMION calculations and the Hall probe measurements. We find up to a 60% (<8%) error in determining the absolute energy for electrons below (above) 80 MeV when using the SIMION-modeled magnetic field vs the measured magnetic field due to SIMION overpredicting fringe field strength. The difference in spectrometer energy resolution is within ∼10% between the modeled and measured fields. We then assess a simple block model, which is commonly used. We find that the simple block model presented here sufficiently captures the predicted as-built spectrometer performance for any application provided that the user can tolerate uncertainties on absolute energy determination up to 5% and errors on energy resolution up to 1%.

Electromagnetic optics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Surrogate Modeling For Efficiently Accurately and Conservatively Estimating Measures of Risk

We present a surrogate modeling framework for conservatively estimating measures of risk from limited realizations of an expensive physical experiment or computational simulation. We adopt a probabilistic description of risk that assigns probabilities to consequences associated with an event and use risk measures, which combine objective evidence with the subjective values of decision makers, to quantify anticipated outcomes. Given a set of samples, we construct a surrogate model that produces estimates of risk measures that are always greater than their empirical estimates obtained from the training data. These surrogate models not only limit over-confidence in reliability and safety assessments, but produce estimates of risk measures that converge much faster to the true value than purely sample-based estimates. We first detail the construction of conservative surrogate models that can be tailored to the specific risk preferences of the stakeholder and then present an approach, based upon stochastic orders, for constructing surrogate models that are conservative with respect to families of risk measures. The surrogate models introduce a bias that allows them to conservatively estimate the target risk measures. We provide theoretical results that show that this bias decays at the same rate as the L 2 error in the surrogate model. Our numerical examples confirm that risk-aware surrogate models do indeed over-estimate the target risk measures while converging at the expected rate.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

In-Home Mobility Frequency and Stability in Older Adults Living Alone With or Without MCI: Introduction of New Metrics

Background: Older adults spend a considerable amount of time inside their residences; however, most research investigates out-of-home mobility and its health correlates. We measured indoor mobility using room-to-room transitions, tested their psychometric properties, and correlated indoor mobility with cognitive and functional status. Materials and Methods: Community-dwelling older adults living alone ( n = 139; age = 78.1 ± 8.6 years) from the Oregon Center for Aging & Technology (ORCATECH) and Minority Aging Research Study (MARS) were included in the study. Two indoor mobility features were developed using non-parametric parameters (frequency; stability): Indoor mobility frequency (room-to-room transitions/day) was detected using passive infrared (PIR) motion sensors fixed on the walls in four geographic locations (bathroom; bedroom; kitchen; living room) and using door contact sensors attached to the egress door in the entrance. Indoor mobility stability was estimated by variances of number of room-to-room transitions over a week. Test-retest reliability (Intra-class coefficient, ICC) and the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) defined as the standard error of measurement (SEM) were generated. Generalized estimating equations models related mobility features with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and functional status (gait speed). Results: An average of 206 days (±127) of sensor data were analyzed per individual. Indoor mobility frequency and stability showed good to excellent test-retest reliability (ICCs = 0.91[0.88–0.94]; 0.59[0.48–0.70]). The MCIDs of mobility frequency and mobility stability were 18 and 0.09, respectively. On average, a higher indoor mobility frequency was associated with faster gait speed (β = 0.53, p = 0.04), suggesting an increase of 5.3 room-to-room transitions per day was associated with an increase of 10 cm/s gait speed. A decrease in mobility stability was associated with MCI (β = −0.04, p = 0.03). Discussion: Mobility frequency and stability in the home are clinically meaningful and reliable features. Pervasive-sensing systems deployed in homes can objectively reveal cognitive and functional status in older adults who live alone.

Wu, Chao-Yi↗

DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of plug flow and multi-node stratified tank modeling approaches regarding computational efficiency and accuracy

Residential water heaters contain water stratified by temperature-driven density differences. This implies that a water tank can reach a state in which the top and bottom sections have different temperatures, unless mixing happens. A high degree of thermal stratification can improve the efficiency of some water heaters, by saving the amount of energy required for the heat-up process. Studies of stratification became popular in the 1970s and it remains an active research topic today. The research has led to the development of different models and techniques to better predict and define a stratified tanks behavior. By comparing these models and techniques used previously to describe thermal stratification, the phenomenon could be better understood, exploited, and used to increase efficiency and thermal energy capacity in modern water tanks. From the existing models, we found the one-dimensional standard plug-flow and a multi node model to be appropriate for analyzing the processes of the heat up and cool-down in a water tank. These two models are based on energy balances. This work involved comparing the accuracy and computational effort needed to implement these models. To assess accuracy, we compared both types of existing models to experimental data (also collected in this work) which included a heat up process using an external heat pump. This external process included a layering process that has an eddy diffusivity at five times the rate of thermal diffusion. For this project, we implemented the models in MATLAB, the multi-paradigm numerical computing environment. We quantified model accuracy using the root mean squared error between modeled data and experimental data for six measured tank temperatures. Comparing the accuracy and the computational time taken to run the simulation provides a method to contrast the performance of each model and a way to rate it. The multi node model was run using from 6 to 96 spatial nodes; the plug flow model was run using 1 to 0.001 º C temperature bin sizes. Additionally, timesteps were varied from 4 to 236 s. The results quantify the tradeoff between accuracy and computational time, providing guidance for simulations to intelligently select the best model type and simulation parameters. This research can be used to validate the pre-existing models and possibly improve the modern water tank.

Bulnes, Fernando Karg↗

DOE OSTI2022

Standardizing reverberation-measured C iv time-lag quasars, and using them with standardized Mg ii quasars to constrain cosmological parameters

ABSTRACT We use 38 C iv quasar (QSO) reverberation-mapped observations, which span eight orders of magnitude in luminosity and the redshift range 0.001064 ≤ z ≤ 3.368, to simultaneously constrain cosmological-model and QSO radius–luminosity (R–L) relation parameters in six cosmological models, using an improved technique that more correctly accounts for the asymmetric errors bars of the time-lag measurements. We find that R–L relation parameters are independent of the cosmological models used in the analysis and so the R–L relation can be used to standardize the C iv QSOs. The C iv QSO cosmological constraints are consistent with those from Mg ii QSOs, allowing us to derive joint C iv + Mg ii QSO cosmological constraints which are consistent with currently accelerated cosmological expansion, as well as consistent with cosmological constraints derived using better-established baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) and Hubble parameter [H(z)] measurements. When jointly analysed with H(z) + BAO data, current C iv + Mg ii QSO data mildly tighten current H(z) + BAO data cosmological constraints.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗