Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “mixed effect model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying spatiotemporal variability in occupant exposure to an indoor airborne contaminant with an uncertain source location

Well-mixed zone models are often employed to compute indoor air quality and occupant exposures. While effective, a potential downside to assuming instantaneous, perfect mixing is underpredicting exposures to high intermittent concentrations within a room. When such cases are of concern, more spatially resolved models, like computational-fluid dynamics methods, are used for some or all of the zones. But, these models have higher computational costs and require more input information. A preferred compromise would be to continue with a multi-zone modeling approach for all rooms, but with a better assessment of the spatial variability within a room. Here to do so, we present a quantitative method for estimating a room's spatiotemporal variability, based on influential room parameters. Our proposed method disaggregates variability into the variability in a room's average concentration, and the spatial variability within the room relative to that average. This enables a detailed assessment of how variability in particular room parameters impacts the uncertain occupant exposures. To demonstrate the utility of this method, we simulate contaminant dispersion for a variety of possible source locations. We compute breathing-zone exposure during the releasing (source is active) and decaying (source is removed) periods. Using CFD methods, we found after a 30 minutes release the average standard deviation in the spatial distribution of exposure was approximately 28% of the source average exposure, whereas variability in the different average exposures was lower, only 10% of the total average. We also find that although uncertainty in the source location leads to variability in the average magnitude of transient exposure, it does not have a particularly large influence on the spatial distribution during the decaying period, or on the average contaminant removal rate. By systematically characterizing a room's average concentration, its variability, and the spatial variability within the room important insights can be gained as to how much uncertainty is introduced into occupant exposure predictions by assuming a uniform in-room contaminant concentration. We discuss how the results of these characterizations can improve our understanding of the uncertainty in occupant exposures relative to well-mixed models.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Intricate structure of the plasma Rayleigh–Taylor instability in shock tubes

Spikes and bubbles grow on unstable interfaces that are accelerated in high-energy-density conditions. If a shock propagates ahead of the interface, the plasma can be heated to extreme conditions where conduction and radiation fluxes influence the hydrodynamics. For example, a National Ignition Facility experiment found reduced single-mode nonlinear mixed-width growth in conditions scaled from a supernova explosion. We present high-resolution two-dimensional radiation hydrodynamic simulations with the Flash code that quantitatively reproduce the experiment. Radiative fluxes are primarily responsible for ablating the spike and removing the mushroom caps. The ablated plasma increases the mixed mass and forms a low-density halo with spikes forming in both directions. This is considerably more complex than classical instability. The halo is sensitive to ablative physics, so radiographing it may aid in the verification of energy transport modeling. Although ablation changes the spike shape, it has little effect on the overall mixed width for these parameters. This is because ablation enhances the bubble velocity but it has the opposite effect on the spike. The radiation transport instead suppresses the growth via increasing the shocked foam density, thus decreasing the Atwood number. Furthermore, a terminal velocity model including the rarefaction expansion agrees with the experimental mixed-width growth.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Unified theoretical framework for black carbon mixing state allows greater accuracy of climate effect estimation

Black carbon (BC) plays an important role in the climate system because of its strong warming effect, yet the magnitude of this effect is highly uncertain owing to the complex mixing state of aerosols. Here we build a unified theoretical framework to describe BC’s mixing states, linking dynamic processes to BC coating thickness distribution, and show its self-similarity for sites in diverse environments. The size distribution of BC-containing particles is found to follow a universal law and is independent of BC core size. A new mixing state module is established based on this finding and successfully applied in global and regional models, which increases the accuracy of aerosol climate effect estimations. Our theoretical framework links observations with model simulations in both mixing state description and light absorption quantification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mixing effects on spectroscopy and partonic observables of heavy mesons with logarithmic confining potential in a light-front quark model

Using the variational principle, we systematically investigate the mass spectra and wave functions of both 1⁢𝑆 and 2⁢𝑆 state heavy pseudoscalar (𝑃) and vector (𝑉) mesons within the light-front quark model. This approach incorporates a Coulomb plus logarithmic confinement potential to accurately describe the constituent quark and antiquark dynamics. Additionally, spin hyperfine interactions are introduced perturbatively to compute the masses of pseudoscalar and vector mesons. The present analyses of the 1⁢𝑆 and 2⁢𝑆 states require the consideration of mixing between them to account for empirical constraints. These constraints include the mass gap Δ⁢𝑀 𝑃 >Δ⁢𝑀 𝑉 , where Δ⁢𝑀 𝑃⁡(𝑉) =𝑀$^{2⁢𝑆}_{𝑃⁡(𝑉)}$−𝑀$^{1⁢𝑆}_{𝑃⁡(𝑉)}$ and the hierarchy of the decay constants 𝑓 1⁢𝑆 >𝑓 2⁢𝑆 . We find the optimal value of the mixing angle to be 𝜃 =1⁢8°, significantly enhancing the consistency between our spectroscopic predictions and the experimental data compiled by the Particle Data Group. Furthermore, based on the predicted mass, the newly observed resonance 𝐵 𝐽⁡ (5840) could be assigned as a 2 1⁢ 𝑆 0 state in the 𝐵 meson family. The study also reports various pertinent observables, including twist-two distribution amplitudes, electromagnetic form factors, charge radii, 𝜉 moments, and transition form factors that are found to be consistent with both available lattice simulations and experimental data. In addition, our predicted branching ratios for the channels of 𝐵 + →𝜏 + ⁢𝜈 𝜏 as well as rare decays of 𝐵 0 and 𝐵$^0_𝑠$ appear in accordance with experimental data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The decay of HIV under anti-retroviral therapy is biphasic even in humanized mice with just T cells

HIV-1 plasma viral load decays in a biphasic manner during antiretroviral therapy (ART). It was hypothesized that this is due to infection of different cell types, namely CD4+ T cells and macrophages. We studied this possibility directly by modeling the decay of HIV-1 in humanized mice. We utilized previously published data from humanized T-cell only mice (TOM) and myeloid-only mice (MOM) infected with HIV-1 and treated with a potent ART regimen. Viral load decay dynamics were modeled using either a single or a biexponential decay fitted using nonlinear mixed effects techniques. Fits were compared using the corrected Bayesian information criterion (BICc). In TOM, the biphasic model was significantly better than a single-phase decay model (ΔBICc ≈ 16) despite additional parameters. In MOM, the biphasic decay was statistically better, but there was substantial uncertainty because the virus goes below detection very fast. The first-phase half-life was consistent between groups (1.2 days in MOM and 1.3 days in TOM) and similar to the half-life estimated in human infection. The second-phase decay in these mice was minimal likely due to low initial viral loads. Additional analyses with mice containing both CD4+ T cells and macrophages or X4-tropic virus-infected MOM mice confirmed the biphasic pattern, demonstrating the robustness of this result. The biphasic decline in HIV-1 occurs, even with only CD4+ T cells, refuting the hypothesis that distinct cell populations (CD4+ T cells and macrophages) drive each decay phase. These findings support an alternative model in which the observed dynamics arise from intrinsic properties of the viral infection lifecycle rather than from cellular compartmentalization.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the effects of mixing state on aerosol optical properties

Abstract. Calculations of the aerosol direct effect on climate rely on simulated aerosol fields. The model representation of aerosol mixing state potentially introduces large uncertainties into these calculations, since the simulated aerosol optical properties are sensitive to mixing state. In this study, we systematically quantified the impact of aerosol mixing state on aerosol optical properties using an ensemble of 1800 aerosol populations from particle-resolved simulations as a basis for Mie calculations for optical properties. Assuming the aerosol to be internally mixed within prescribed size bins caused overestimations of aerosol absorptivity and underestimations of aerosol scattering. Together, these led to errors in the populations' single scattering albedo of up to −22.3 % with a median of −0.9 %. The mixing state metric χ proved useful in relating errors in the volume absorption coefficient, the volume scattering coefficient and the single scattering albedo to the degree of internally mixing of the aerosol, with larger errors being associated with more external mixtures. At the same time, a range of errors existed for any given value of χ. We attributed this range to the extent to which the internal mixture assumption distorted the particles' black carbon content and the refractive index of the particle coatings. Both can vary for populations with the same value of χ. These results are further evidence of the important yet complicated role of mixing state in calculating aerosol optical properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The cosmological moduli problem and naturalness

Nowadays, the cosmological moduli problem (CMP) comes in three parts: 1. potential violation of Big-Bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) constraints from late decaying moduli fields, 2. the moduli-induced gravitino problem wherein gravitinos are overproduced and their decays violate BBN or dark matter overproduction bounds and 3. the moduli-induced lightest SUSY particle (LSP) overproduction problem. Also, the CMP may be regarded as either a problem or else a solution to scenarios with dark matter over- or under-production. We examine the cosmological moduli problem and its connection to electroweak naturalness. We calculate the various two-body decay widths of a light modulus field into MSSM particles and gravitinos within general supersymmetric models. We include both phase space and mixing effects. We examine cases without and with helicity suppression of modulus decays to gravitinos (cases 1 & 2) and/or gauginos (cases A & B). For case B1, we evaluate regions of gravitino mass m 3/2 vs. modulus mass mΦ parameter space constrained by BBN, by overproduction of gravitinos and by overproduction of neutralino dark matter, along with connections to naturalness. For this case, essentially all of parameter space is excluded unless mΦ ≳ 2.5 × 10 3 TeV with mΦ< 2m 3/2 For a potentially most propitious case B2 with Φ decay to Higgs and matter turned off, then modulus branching fractions to SUSY and to gravitinos become highly suppressed at large m Φ . But since the modulus number density increases faster than the branching fractions decrease, there is still gross overproduction of neutralino dark matter. We also show that in this scenario the thermally produced gravitino problem is fixed by huge entropy dilution, but non-thermal gravitino production from moduli decay remains a huge problem unless it is kinematically suppressed with m Φ < 2m 3/2 . In a pedagogical appendix, we present detailed calculations of modulus field two-body decay widths.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Magnetism in metastable and annealed compositionally complex alloys

Compositionally complex materials (CCMs) present a potential paradigm shift in the design of magnetic materials. These alloys exhibit long-range structural order coupled with limited or no chemical order. As a result, extreme local environments exist with a large variations in the magnetic energy terms, which can manifest large changes in the magnetic behavior. In the current work, the magnetic properties of (Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni) alloys are presented. These materials were prepared by room-temperature combinatorial sputtering, resulting in a range of compositions with a single bcc structural phase and no chemical ordering. The combinatorial growth technique allows CCMs to be prepared outside of their thermodynamically stable phase, enabling the exploration of otherwise inaccessible order. The mixed ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic interactions in these alloys causes frustrated magnetic behavior, which results in an extremely low coercivity (<1mT), which increases rapidly at 50 K. At low temperatures, the coercivity achieves values of nearly 500 mT, which is comparable to some high-anisotropy magnetic materials. Further, commensurate with the divergent coercivity is an atypical drop in the temperature dependent magnetization. These effects are explained by a mixed magnetic phase model, consisting of ferro-, antiferro-, and frustrated magnetic regions, and are rationalized by simulations. A machine-learning algorithm is employed to visualize the parameter space and inform the development of subsequent compositions. Annealing the samples at 600 °C orders the sample, more-than doubling the Curie temperature and increasing the saturation magnetization by as much as 5×. Simultaneously, the large coercivities are suppressed, resulting in magnetic behavior that is largely temperature independent over a range of 350 K. The ability to transform from a hard magnet to a soft magnet over a narrow temperature range makes these materials promising for heat-assisted recording technologies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Chemical Reactor Network Modeling of Ammonia Rich-Quench-Lean Combustion Using a Partially Stirred Reactor Approach

Ammonia is a promising alternative fuel, but its use is challenging due to low flammability and high nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions. Two-stage rich-quench-lean (RQL) combustion strategies have shown promise in reducing NOx emissions. This approach involves two stages: a rich stage that oxidizes part of the fuel and decomposes ammonia into hydrogen, and a lean stage that burns out the hydrogen and residual ammonia. Researchers used a chemical reactor network model to study the effects of heat loss and mixing on emissions performance. They found that heat loss and reduced mixing rates can lead to increased NOx emissions and N2O formation. The results will inform the development of optimized two-stage RQL combustors for ammonia, with a focus on minimizing NOx emissions and improving overall efficiency.

ammonia combustion↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantification of Physical and Numerical Mixing in a Coastal Ocean Model Using Salinity Variance Budgets

Numerical mixing, the spurious mixing primarily generated by the discretization of advection, is often significant in estuarine and coastal models due to sharp, energetic fronts. In this study, we compare on- and offline estimates of numerical mixing in a submesoscale-resolving realistic simulation of the ocean state over the Texas-Louisiana continental shelf. While offline estimates of numerical mixing differ from online estimates, offline methods may be the only analysis available. This study offers insight into the differences between the on- and offline methods. We use two methods to estimate numerical mixing offline, based on salinity squared $s^2$ and volume-mean salinity variance $s^{\prime^2}$. Numerical mixing estimated from the $s^{\prime^2}$ budget is generally within 60\% of the magnitude for the online method but captures the temporal variability well. However, the $s^2$ budget compares poorly due to larger truncation errors associated with the tendency and advection terms, which can be reduced by increasing the model output frequency. We also investigate the effects of horizontal resolution on numerical mixing using a two-way nested grid. The volume-integrated numerical mixing constitutes 57\% of the bulk physical mixing -- the mixing prescribed by the turbulence closure scheme -- in the coarse model and may exceed the physical mixing by half an order of magnitude. We find that numerical mixing is reduced by 35\% on average in the nested model, less than expected based on scaling of the numerical mixing for an upwind advection scheme, likely due to new dynamical processes that emerge in the nested simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of New Los Alamos OPLIB Opacities in Solar Modeling Using the Mesa Code

The Sun provides the only local laboratory to test our understanding of stellar physics. The production, then, of valid dynamical models of the Sun is critical to how we think about other stars. Despite improvements in modeling methodologies and abundance measurements, solar models continue to reproduce errors in convection zone depth and surface helium abundance compared to helioseismic observations. Using the 1D stellar evolution code MESAstar, this work first evaluates the effect of changes to timestep resolution and mixing length theory on model outputs. A standard test case is then constructed with both GS98 and AGSS09 abundances using OP and OPAL opacities before implementing the new Los Alamos OPLIB opacities. It is shown that, when using GS98 abundances, OPLIB opacities improve agreement with helioseismic inference of the convection zone base radius, R czb , by 1.68-σ and 1.19-σ compared to OP and OPAL, respectively, while worsening agreement with the inferred envelope helium mass fraction, Y surf , by 0.63-σ and 0.98-σ for OP and OPAL.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-inspired spatiotemporal-graph AI ensemble for the detection of higher order wave mode signals of spinning binary black hole mergers

We present a new class of AI models for the detection of quasi-circular, spinning, non-precessing binary black hole mergers whose waveforms include the higher order gravitational wave modes ($\ell$, |m|) = {(2,2), (2,1), (3,3), (3,2), (4,4)}, and mode mixing effects in the $\ell$ = 3, |m| = 2 harmonics. These AI models combine hybrid dilated convolution neural networks to accurately model both short- and long-range temporal sequential information of gravitational waves; and graph neural networks to capture spatial correlations among gravitational wave observatories to consistently describe and identify the presence of a signal in a three detector network encompassing the Advanced LIGO and Virgo detectors. We first trained these spatiotemporal-graph AI models using synthetic noise, using 1.2 million modeled waveforms to densely sample this signal manifold, within 1.7 h using 256 NVIDIA A100 GPUs in the Polaris supercomputer at the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility. This distributed training approach exhibited optimal classification performance, and strong scaling up to 512 NVIDIA A100 GPUs. With these AI ensembles we processed data from a three detector network, and found that an ensemble of 4 AI models achieves state-of-the-art performance for signal detection, and reports two misclassifications for every decade of searched data. We distributed AI inference over 128 GPUs in the Polaris supercomputer and 128 nodes in the Theta supercomputer, and completed the processing of a decade of gravitational wave data from a three detector network within 3.5 h. Finally, we fine-tuned these AI ensembles to process the entire month of February 2020, which is part of the O3b LIGO/Virgo observation run, and found 6 gravitational waves, concurrently identified in Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo data, and zero false positives. This analysis was completed in one hour using one NVIDIA A100 GPU.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Phase evolution in two-phase alloys during severe plastic deformation

Herein, phase evolution in FCC metals with strongly interacting alloy components during severe plastic deformation is investigated using molecular dynamics simulations. Specifically, we study the alloy microstructure in steady state, nucleation and growth of precipitates in supersaturated alloys, and the decomposition of precipitates in undersaturated alloys. The results are compared to a modified effective temperature model, providing a physical understanding for the atomic processes underlying the model and a perspective on its strengths and weaknesses. Key observations in this work are nucleation and growth of precipitates during SPD at a temperature of 100 K; Gibbs-Thomson-like behavior relating solubility to precipitate size under steady-state shearing; a direct relationship between the effective temperature and the shear modulus; and the importance of cluster agglomeration during precipitate growth. The study also reveals that the mechanisms of forced chemical mixing depends on precipitate size, adding complications for effective temperature models describing inhomogeneous systems. The simulations are shown to provide good semiquantitative agreement with experimental findings reported in the literature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Radiative absorption enhancements by black carbon controlled by particle-to-particle heterogeneity in composition

Black carbon (BC) absorbs solar radiation, leading to a strong but uncertain warming effect on climate. A key challenge in modeling and quantifying BC’s radiative effect on climate is predicting enhancements in light absorption that result from internal mixing between BC and other aerosol components. Modeling and laboratory studies show that BC, when mixed with other aerosol components, absorbs more strongly than pure, uncoated BC; however, some ambient observations suggest more variable and weaker absorption enhancement. We show that the lower-than-expected enhancements in ambient measurements result from a combination of two factors. First, the often used spherical, concentric core-shell approximation generally overestimates the absorption by BC. Second, and more importantly, inadequate consideration of heterogeneity in particle-to-particle composition engenders substantial overestimation in absorption by the total particle population, with greater heterogeneity associated with larger model–measurement differences. We show that accounting for these two effects—variability in per-particle composition and deviations from the core-shell approximation—reconciles absorption enhancement predictions with laboratory and field observations and resolves the apparent discrepancy. Furthermore, our consistent model framework provides a path forward for improving predictions of BC’s radiative effect on climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Atwood effects on nonlocality of the scalar transport closure in Rayleigh-Taylor mixing

The importance of nonlocality is assessed in modeling mean scalar transport for turbulent Rayleigh-Taylor (RT) mixing at different Atwood numbers. Building on the two-dimensional incompressible work of Lavacot et al. [J. Fluid Mech. 985, A47 (2024)], the present work extends the macroscopic forcing method to variable density problems in three-dimensional space to measure moments of the generalized eddy diffusivity kernel in RT mixing for increasing Atwood numbers (𝐴 = 0.05, 0.3, 0.5, 0.8). It is found that as 𝐴 increases, (1) the eddy diffusivity moments become asymmetric and (2) the higher-order eddy diffusivity moments become larger relative to the leading-order diffusivity, indicating that nonlocality becomes more important at higher 𝐴. There is a particularly strong temporal nonlocality at higher 𝐴, suggesting stronger history effects. In conclusion, the implications of these findings for closure modeling for finite-Atwood RT are discussed.

general physics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reliability Analysis of Power Grids Considering Component Failures of Variable Energy Resources

This paper proposes an improved model for the reliability assessment of power systems considering component failures of variable energy resources (VER). The inherent intermittency of VER such as solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind farms, along with their susceptibility to component failures, present significant challenges to reliable system operation. These issues, combined with power grid operation and network constraints, complicate the reliable operation of VER-integrated power systems. Here, to address these concerns, this paper introduces a reliability assessment framework that considers VER input variability, its impact on component availability, and their resulting impact on overall system reliability. Stochastic models based on discrete Markov processes are developed to incorporate variable irradiance, wind speeds, and their effects on PV and wind component failure rates. A next-event and state transition-based approach is then developed to integrate the stochastic models into a mixed-timing sequential Monte Carlo simulation framework for composite reliability assessment. Case studies on the RTS-GMLC system demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model in evaluating the reliability of VER-integrated systems.

Pandit, Dilip [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-N↗
DOE OSTI2023

Important ice processes are missed by the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in Southern Ocean mixed–phase clouds: Bridging SOCRATES observations to model developments

Global climate models (GCMs) are challenged by difficulties in simulating cloud phase and cloud radiative effect over the Southern Ocean (SO). Some of the new generation GCMs predict too much liquid and too little ice in mixed-phase clouds. This misrepresentation of cloud phase in GCMs results in weaker negative cloud feedback over the SO and a higher climate sensitivity. Based on a model comparison with observational data obtained during the Southern Ocean Cloud Radiation and Aerosol Transport Experimental Study (SOCRATES), this study addresses a key uncertainty in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) related to cloud phase, namely ice formation in pristine remote SO clouds. It is found that sea spray organic aerosols (SSOA) are the most important type of ice nucleating particles (INPs) over the SO with concentrations one order of magnitude higher than those of dust INPs based on measurements and CESM2 simulations. Secondary ice production (SIP) which includes riming splintering, rain droplet shattering, and ice-ice collisional fragmentation as implemented in CESM2 is the dominant ice production process in moderately cold clouds with cloud temperatures greater than –20°C. SIP enhances the in-cloud ice number concentrations (Ni) by 1-3 orders of magnitude and predicts more mixed-phase (with percentage occurrence increased from 15% to 21%), in better agreement with the observations. Finally, this study highlights the importance of accurately representing cloud phase over the pristine remote SO by considering the ice nucleation of SSOA and SIP processes, which are currently missing in most GCM cloud microphysics parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗