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At least 91 records · Page 5

The Potential Benefits of Handling Mixture Statistics via a Bi-Gaussian EnKF: Tests With All-Sky Satellite Infrared Radiances

The meteorological characteristics of cloudy atmospheric columns can be very different from their clear counterparts. Thus, when a forecast ensemble is uncertain about the presence/absence of clouds at a specific atmospheric column (i.e., some members are clear while others are cloudy), that column's ensemble statistics will contain a mixture of clear and cloudy statistics. Such mixtures are inconsistent with the ensemble data assimilation algorithms currently used in numerical weather prediction. Hence, ensemble data assimilation algorithms that can handle such mixtures can potentially outperform currently used algorithms. In this study, we demonstrate the potential benefits of addressing such mixtures through a bi-Gaussian extension of the ensemble Kalman filter (BGEnKF). The BGEnKF is compared against the commonly used ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) using perfect model observing system simulated experiments (OSSEs) with a realistic weather model (the Weather Research and Forecast model). Synthetic all-sky infrared radiance observations are assimilated in this study. In these OSSEs, the BGEnKF outperforms the EnKF in terms of the horizontal wind components, temperature, specific humidity, and simulated upper tropospheric water vapor channel infrared brightness temperatures. This study is one of the first to demonstrate the potential of a Gaussian mixture model EnKF with a realistic weather model. Our results thus motivate future research toward improving numerical Earth system predictions though explicitly handling mixture statistics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning for physics-based models

This paper addresses the issue of overfitting while calibrating unknown parameters of over-parameterized physics-based models with noisy and incomplete observations. Here, a semi-analytical Bayesian framework of nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning (NSBL) is proposed to identify sparsity among model parameters during Bayesian inversion. NSBL offers significant advantages over machine learning algorithm of sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) for physics-based models, such as 1) the likelihood function or the posterior parameter distribution is not required to be Gaussian, and 2) prior parameter knowledge is incorporated into sparse learning (i.e. not all parameters are treated as questionable). NSBL employs the concept of automatic relevance determination (ARD) to facilitate sparsity among questionable parameters through parameterized prior distributions. The analytical tractability of NSBL is enabled by employing Gaussian ARD priors and by building a Gaussian mixture-model approximation of the posterior parameter distribution that excludes the contribution of ARD priors. Subsequently, type-II maximum likelihood is executed using Newton's method whereby the evidence and its gradient and Hessian information are computed in a semi-analytical fashion. We show numerically and analytically that SBL is a special case of NSBL for linear regression models. Subsequently, a linear regression example involving multimodality in both parameter posterior pdf and model evidence is considered to demonstrate the performance of NSBL in cases where SBL is inapplicable. Next, NSBL is applied to identify sparsity among the damping coefficients of a mass-spring-damper model of a shear building frame. These numerical studies demonstrate the robustness and efficiency of NSBL in alleviating overfitting during Bayesian inversion of nonlinear physics-based models.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A Comparative Study of the Perceptual Sensitivity of Topological Visualizations to Feature Variations

Color maps are a commonly used visualization technique in which data are mapped to optical properties, e.g., color or opacity. Color maps, however, do not explicitly convey structures (e.g., positions and scale of features) within data. Topology-based visualizations reveal and explicitly communicate structures underlying data. Although our understanding of what types of features are captured by topological visualizations is good, our understanding of people's perception of those features is not. Further, this paper evaluates the sensitivity of topology-based isocontour, Reeb graph, and persistence diagram visualizations compared to a reference color map visualization for synthetically generated scalar fields on 2-manifold triangular meshes embedded in 3D. In particular, we built and ran a human-subject study that evaluated the perception of data features characterized by Gaussian signals and measured how effectively each visualization technique portrays variations of data features arising from the position and amplitude variation of a mixture of Gaussians. For positional feature variations, the results showed that only the Reeb graph visualization had high sensitivity. For amplitude feature variations, persistence diagrams and color maps demonstrated the highest sensitivity, whereas isocontours showed only weak sensitivity. These results take an important step toward understanding which topology-based tools are best for various data and task scenarios and their effectiveness in conveying topological variations as compared to conventional color mapping.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Investigating the effects of precise mass measurements of Ru and Pd isotopes on machine learning mass modeling

Atomic masses are a foundational quantity in our understanding of nuclear structure, astrophysics, and fundamental symmetries. The longstanding goal of creating a predictive global model for the binding energy of a nucleus remains a significant challenge, however, and prompts the need for precise measurements of atomic masses to serve as anchor points for model developments. We present precise mass measurements of neutron-rich Ru and Pd isotopes performed at the Californium Rare Isotope Breeder Upgrade facility at Argonne National Laboratory using the Canadian Penning Trap mass spectrometer. The masses of 108 Ru, 110 Ru, and 116 Pd were measured to a relative mass precision $\delta$⁢$m/m$ ≈ 10 -8 via the phase-imaging ion-cyclotron-resonance technique, and represent an improvement of approximately an order of magnitude over previous measurements. Further, these mass data were used in conjunction with the physically interpretable machine learning (PIML) model, which uses a mixture density neural network to model mass excesses via a mixture of Gaussian distributions. The effects of our new mass data on a Bayesian-updating of a PIML model are presented.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Probabilistic Data Association for Orbital-Element Estimation Using Multistage Expectation–Maximization

Tracking space objects is important for managing space traffic and predicting collisions, but is difficult in part due to data association and orbit model uncertainty. Expectation–maximization (EM) is a commonly used tracking method that has not been widely considered for tracking space objects. The technique consists of iteratively computing data association probabilities with a set of current element estimates, and updating estimates of the elements by solving a nonlinear weighted least-squares regression problem where the weights are the data association probabilities. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of EM for probabilistic data association and orbital-element estimation by applying the technique to simulated data from two angles-only tracking scenarios. In both scenarios, EM provides correct data associations and accurate maximum likelihood estimates of orbital elements. One scenario considers tracking a single object in clutter and quantifies the improvement of the orbital-element estimates and data associations as the detection probability increases. However, standard application of EM requires knowing the number of objects or may fail when a large number of objects are present. To address these issues, this paper employs a multistage version of EM that is applicable when there are a large and possibly unknown number of objects.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Photometry of Outer Solar System Objects from the Dark Energy Survey. II. A Joint Analysis of Trans-Neptunian Absolute Magnitudes, Colors, Light Curves and Dynamics

For the 696 trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) with absolute magnitudes 5.5 < H r < 8.2 detected in the Dark Energy Survey, we characterize the relationships between their dynamical state and physical properties—namely H r , indicating size; colors, indicating surface composition; and flux variation semiamplitude A, indicating asphericity and surface inhomogeneity. We seek “birth” physical distributions that can recreate these parameters in every dynamical class. We show that the observed colors of these TNOs are consistent with two Gaussian distributions in griz space, “near-infrared bright” (NIRB) and “near-infrared faint” (NIRF), presumably an inner and outer birth population, respectively. We find a model in which both the NIRB and NIRF H r and A distributions are independent of current dynamical states, supporting their assignment as birth populations. All objects are consistent with a common rolling p(H r ), but NIRF objects are significantly more variable. Cold classicals (CCs) are purely NIRF, while hot classical (HC), scattered, and detached TNOs are consistent with ≈ 70% NIRB and the resonance NIRB fractions show significant variation. The NIRB components of the HCs and of some resonances have broader inclination distributions than the NIRFs, i.e. their current dynamics retains information about birth location. We find evidence for radial stratification within the birth NIRB population, in that HC NIRBs are on average redder than detached or scattered NIRBs; a similar effect distinguishes CCs from other NIRFs. We estimate total object counts and masses of each class within our H r range. These results will strongly constrain models of the outer solar system.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Real-time image denoising of mixed Poisson–Gaussian noise in fluorescence microscopy images using ImageJ

Fluorescence microscopy imaging speed is fundamentally limited by the measurement signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). To improve image SNR for a given image acquisition rate, computational denoising techniques can be used to suppress noise. However, common techniques to estimate a denoised image from a single frame either are computationally expensive or rely on simple noise statistical models. These models assume Poisson or Gaussian noise statistics, which are not appropriate for many fluorescence microscopy applications that contain quantum shot noise and electronic Johnson–Nyquist noise, therefore a mixture of Poisson and Gaussian noise. In this paper, we show convolutional neural networks (CNNs) trained on mixed Poisson and Gaussian noise images to overcome the limitations of existing image denoising methods. The trained CNN is presented as an open-source ImageJ plugin that performs real-time image denoising (within tens of milliseconds) with superior performance (SNR improvement) compared to conventional fluorescence microscopy denoising methods. The method is validated on external datasets with out-of-distribution noise, contrast, structure, and imaging modalities from the training data and consistently achieves high-performance ( > <#comment/> 8 d B ) denoising in less time than other fluorescence microscopy denoising methods.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Convective shells in the interior of Cepheid variable stars: Overshooting models based on hydrodynamic simulations

Context. Because Cepheid variable stars have long been used as a cosmic benchmark for scaling distances in our Galaxy and beyond, the accuracy of stellar evolution models for Cepheids have wide-reaching effects. However, our understanding of the dynamics in the interiors of these physically complex stars is limited. Aims. Our goal is to provide a detailed multi-dimensional picture of hydrodynamic convection and convective boundary mixing in the interior of Cepheids. Methods. Using the Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA), we studied the structure of intermediate-mass stars that cross the instability strip. Then, we performed two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of six stars with the fully compressible Multidimensional Stellar Implicit Code (MUSIC). Our simulations did not model the radial pulsations but focused on the interior structure of this family of stars. We developed and applied a new statistical analysis to examine convection and convective boundary mixing in the interior of these stellar simulations. Results. Based on a grid of MESA models, we demonstrated that a common structure for intermediate mass Cepheids includes an interior convective shell as well as a thin outer convective envelope. Using the extreme value theory approach to analyze our MUSIC simulation data, we found that overshooting above the convective shell fills the space between these convectively unstable layers. We developed a new statistical analysis that provides a clearer picture of how overshooting fills this layer; it also allowed us to formulate a detailed comparison between overshooting above and below the convective shell. Our analysis effectively decomposes the overshooting layer into two layers: a weak overshooting layer and a strong overshooting layer. Statistically, this is accomplished by decomposing the strongly non-Gaussian probability density function into a mixture of gamma distributions. Using our mixture model, we showed that the ratio of overshooting lengths above and below the convective shell depends directly on the radial extent of the convective shell as well as its depth in the star. We proposed a new form for the diffusion coefficient that addresses the need for overlapping overshooting layers between convective shells. We introduced the idea of a “super-mixing layer” where overshooting from both the convective shell and the convective envelope results in efficient mixing and could be viewed as merging the two adjacent convective zones.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

AL4GAP: Active learning workflow for generating DFT-SCAN accurate machine-learning potentials for combinatorial molten salt mixtures

Machine learning interatomic potentials have emerged as a powerful tool for bypassing the spatiotemporal limitations of ab initio simulations, but major challenges remain in their efficient parameterization. We present AL4GAP, an ensemble active learning software workflow for generating multicomposition Gaussian approximation potentials (GAP) for arbitrary molten salt mixtures. The workflow capabilities include: (1) setting up user-defined combinatorial chemical spaces of charge neutral mixtures of arbitrary molten mixtures spanning 11 cations (Li, Na, K, Rb, Cs, Mg, Ca, Sr, Ba and two heavy species, Nd, and Th) and 4 anions (F, Cl, Br, and I), (2) configurational sampling using low-cost empirical parameterizations, (3) active learning for down-selecting configurational samples for single point density functional theory calculations at the level of Strongly Constrained and Appropriately Normed (SCAN) exchange-correlation functional, and (4) Bayesian optimization for hyperparameter tuning of two-body and many-body GAP models. Here, we apply the AL4GAP workflow to showcase high throughput generation of five independent GAP models for multicomposition binary-mixture melts, each of increasing complexity with respect to charge valency and electronic structure, namely: LiCl–KCl, NaCl–CaCl 2 , KCl–NdCl 3 , CaCl 2 –NdCl 3 , and KCl–ThCl 4 . Our results indicate that GAP models can accurately predict structure for diverse molten salt mixture with density functional theory (DFT)-SCAN accuracy, capturing the intermediate range ordering characteristic of the multivalent cationic melts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The Dynamic of Complex Two-Phase Mixtures During Coarsening: From Dendritic to Bicontinuous Mixtures

Dendrites are tree-like crystals that frequently form during the solidification of castings. In systems with nearly isotropic interfacial energy, these dendrites possess secondary and sometimes even tertiary arms, and lead to morphologically complex two-phase mixtures. Dealloying, in which one component is selectively leached, leads to nanoporous structures that have proven useful for many technological applications. These bicontinuous two-phase mixtures are topologically and morphologically complex with spatially varying mean and Gaussian curvatures. The evolution of these structures during coarsening is of considerable technological importance since the morphology of the dendrites and nanoporous structure sets the properties of the resulting material. During coarsening, the total surface area per volume of the mixture decreases, thus resulting in an increase in the size-scale of the two-phase mixture. The evolution of interfacial morphology of these interconnected two-phase mixtures is being studied using large-scale computer simulations. The simulations are used to develop a theory of coarsening in these systems that will elucidate the impact of the complicated morphology found in dendritic and nanoporous systems on the coarsening process. The experiments employ four-dimensional X-ray microtomography, which enables the morphology of the two-phase mixture to be followed in three dimensions and time (an additional dimension). The experiments also serve as a test of simulations and theory of the coarsening process, as well as to provide initial conditions for the simulations. Through these experiments and theory, we aim to develop a comprehensive description of coarsening in these complex and technologically important two-phase mixtures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Interpolating between small- and large-$\mathscr{g}$ expansions using Bayesian model mixing

Bayesian model mixing (BMM) is a statistical technique that can be used to combine models that are predictive in different input domains into a composite distribution that has improved predictive power over the entire input space. We explore the application of BMM to the mixing of two expansions of a function of a coupling constant $\mathscr{g}$ that are valid at small and large values of $\mathscr{g}$ respectively. This type of problem is quite common in nuclear physics, where physical properties are straightforwardly calculable in strong and weak interaction limits or at low and high densities or momentum transfers, but difficult to calculate in between. Interpolation between these limits is often accomplished by a suitable interpolating function, e.g., Padé approximants, but it is then unclear how to quantify the uncertainty of the interpolant. We address this problem in the simple context of the partition function of zero-dimensional Φ 4 theory, for which the (asymptotic) expansion at small $\mathscr{g}$ and the (convergent) expansion at large $\mathscr{g}$ are both known. We consider three mixing methods: linear mixture BMM, localized bivariate BMM, and localized multivariate BMM with Gaussian processes. Here, we find that employing a Gaussian process in the intermediate region between the two predictive models leads to the best results of the three methods. The methods and validation strategies we present here should be generalizable to other nuclear physics settings.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Development and demonstration of a rolling ball viscometer for molten salts with near-minimum liquidus NaCl–KCl

The thermophysical characterization of molten chloride and fluoride salts is a key interest for the development of advanced molten salt nuclear reactors. Viscosity is one thermophysical property of interest; a high-accuracy understanding of this property is necessary for modeling the thermal energy transfer and mass flow rate for a given molten salt system. Only a few methods have consistently been used to measure the viscosity of molten chloride and fluoride salt systems, and large discrepancies have been observed in the literature between independent studies of nearly identical salt systems. As such, exploration of novel measurement methods or implementations may allow for further validation, improved measurement accuracy, and overall improved understanding about optimal approaches for measuring molten salt viscosity. Here, in this study, a novel implementation of the rolling ball viscometry method was used to measure the viscosity of a 44/56 mol % mixture of NaCl–KCl within a temperature range of 714–838 °C, with the intent to demonstrate the feasibility of this technique for molten salt viscosity measurement cross-validation. The purity of this salt was confirmed through laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy. Measured viscosities were approximately 1.3–1.0 cP within this temperature range, and the overall uncertainty was 10.8%, which was determined through Gaussian error propagation. The results agree reasonably well with measured viscosities of similar NaCl–KCl mixtures in the literature (within 2%–20% depending on the temperature and study), although the experimental error in some of these comparative studies may be significant.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Activity coefficient acquisition with thermodynamics–informed active learning for phase diagram construction

This work explores the use of thermodynamics-informed Gaussian processes (GPs) and active learning (AL) to model activity coefficients and construct phase diagrams. Relying on synthetic data generated from an excess Gibbs energy model, GPs were found to accurately describe the activity coefficients of several binary mixtures across large composition and temperature ranges. Moreover, GPs could estimate their own uncertainty and identify composition/temperature regions where activity coefficient data provide the most information to the models. This was leveraged to build AL algorithms targeted at modeling phase equilibria. In many cases, a single active-learning-acquired data point was sufficient to describe the phase diagrams studied. Lastly, the ability of AL to greatly reduce the amount of data needed to obtain accurate models was further verified on experimental case studies, namely individual ion activity coefficients, the solid–liquid and vapor–liquid equilibrium of deep eutectic solvents, and phase equilibria in ternary mixtures.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Solubilization of PET in binary mixtures of HFIP and DCM

The dissolution of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) is a critical step for a solvent-based process, yet it typically requires highly corrosive or toxic solvents. Here, we investigate the solubilization and conformational behavior of PET in binary mixtures of hexafluoro-2-propanol (HFIP) and dichloromethane (DCM) as a strategy to reduce HFIP usage while maintaining effective dissolution. Small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) measurements reveal that PET remains molecularly dissolved in HFIP/DCM mixtures up to 50 vol% DCM. Analysis of PET chain conformations shows a transition from Gaussian behavior at low HFIP fractions to more swollen chains at intermediate compositions, accompanied by a counter-intuitive minimum in the radius of gyration at 50% HFIP. Complementary SANS measurements of the binary solvents demonstrate that compositional heterogeneity is maximized at this same solvent composition, suggesting a direct coupling between solvent microstructure and polymer dimensions. Molecular dynamics simulations corroborate the experimental findings, revealing solvent domain formation, preferential solvation of PET by HFIP, and a “caging” effect arising from solvent heterogeneity that leads to polymer coil compaction. Together, these results provide molecular-level insight into polymer behavior in mixed solvent systems and establish HFIP/DCM mixtures as a promising, more sustainable solvent platform for the PET post-process.

Arifuzzaman, Arif [ORNL]↗

Gaussian Process Modeling For Experimental Procedure Uncertainty

Many laboratory experiments generate data that are characterized by a form of uncertainty that differs from noise: experimental procedure uncertainty. The origin of this type of uncertainty is the difficulty in controlling a subset of experimental conditions in such a way that the experiment is perfectly reproducible within noise. In this report, we describe a Gaussian Process modeling-based method that accounts for experimental procedure uncertainty. The method accounts for variations in conditions from experiment to experiment that are independent between experiments, but correlated within each experiment, and incorporates the resulting uncertainty into predictions at future experimental settings. The method is discussed in the context of a specific chemistry application in which Raman scattering spectra are measured from three-component mixtures.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Chemical Robotics Enabled Exploration of Stability in Multicomponent Lead Halide Perovskites via Machine Learning

Metal halide perovskites have attracted immense interest as a promising material for a variety of optoelectronic and sensing applications. However, issues regarding long-term stability have emerged as the key bottleneck for commercialization. Here, we develop an automated experimental workflow based on combinatorial synthesis and rapid throughput characterization to explore long-term stability of these materials in ambient conditions. We apply it to four model perovskite systems: MA x FA y Cs 1–x–y PbBr 3 , MA x FA y Cs 1–x–y PbI 3 , Cs x FA y MA 1–x–y Pb(Br x+y I 1–x–y ) 3 , and Cs x MA y FA 1–x–y Pb(I x+y Br 1–x–y ) 3 . Non-negative matrix factorization and Gaussian process regression are used to interpolate the photoluminescent behavior of the phase diagram. This interpolative regression analysis helps to distinguish mixtures that form solid solutions from those that segregate into multiple materials, pointing out the most stable regions of the phase diagram. Here, we find stability dependence on composition to be nonuniform within the composition space, suggesting the presence of potential preferential compositional regions. This proposed workflow is universal and can be applied to other solution-processable materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Machine Learning-Based Classification of Lignocellulosic Biomass from Pyrolysis-Molecular Beam Mass Spectrometry Data

High-throughput analysis of biomass is necessary to ensure consistent and uniform feedstocks for agricultural and bioenergy applications and is needed to inform genomics and systems biology models. Pyrolysis followed by mass spectrometry such as molecular beam mass spectrometry (py-MBMS) analyses are becoming increasingly popular for the rapid analysis of biomass cell wall composition and typically require the use of different data analysis tools depending on the need and application. Here, the authors report the py-MBMS analysis of several types of lignocellulosic biomass to gain an understanding of spectral patterns and variation with associated biomass composition and use machine learning approaches to classify, differentiate, and predict biomass types on the basis of py-MBMS spectra. Py-MBMS spectra were also corrected for instrumental variance using generalized linear modeling (GLM) based on the use of select ions relative abundances as spike-in controls. Machine learning classification algorithms e.g., random forest, k-nearest neighbor, decision tree, Gaussian Naïve Bayes, gradient boosting, and multilayer perceptron classifiers were used. The k-nearest neighbors (k-NN) classifier generally performed the best for classifications using raw spectral data, and the decision tree classifier performed the worst. After normalization of spectra to account for instrumental variance, all the classifiers had comparable and generally acceptable performance for predicting the biomass types, although the k-NN and decision tree classifiers were not as accurate for prediction of specific sample types. Gaussian Naïve Bayes (GNB) and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) classifiers performed better than the k-NN and the decision tree classifiers for the prediction of biomass mixtures. The data analysis workflow reported here could be applied and extended for comparison of biomass samples of varying types, species, phenotypes, and/or genotypes or subjected to different treatments, environments, etc. to further elucidate the sources of spectral variance, patterns, and to infer compositional information based on spectral analysis, particularly for analysis of data without a priori knowledge of the feedstock composition or identity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Two Mesoporous Domains Are Better Than One for Catalytic Deconstruction of Polyolefins

Catalytic hydrogenolysis of polyolefins into valuable liquid, oil, or wax-like hydrocarbon chains for second-life applications is typically accompanied by the hydrogen-wasting co-formation of low value volatiles, notably methane, that increase greenhouse gas emissions. Catalytic sites confined at the bottom of mesoporous wells, under conditions in which the pore exerts the greatest influence over the mechanism, are capable of producing less gases than unconfined sites. A new architecture was designed to emphasize this pore effect, with the active platinum nanoparticles embedded between linear, hexagonal mesoporous silica and gyroidal cubic MCM-48 silica (mSiO 2 /Pt/MCM-48). This catalyst deconstructs polyolefins selectively into ~C 20 –C 40 paraffins and cleaves C–C bonds at a rate (TOF = 4.2 ± 0.3 s –1 ) exceeding that of materials lacking these combined features while generating negligible volatile side products including methane. The time-independent product distribution is consistent with a processive mechanism for polymer deconstruction. In contrast to time- and polymer length-dependent products obtained from non-porous catalysts, mSiO 2 /Pt/MCM-48 yields a C 28 -centered Gaussian distribution of waxy hydrocarbons from polyolefins of varying molecular weight, composition, and physical properties, including low-density polyethylene, isotactic polypropylene, ultrahigh-molecular-weight polyethylene, and mixtures of multiple, post-industrial polyolefins. Here, coarse-grained simulation reveals that the porous-core architecture enables the paraffins to diffuse away from the active platinum site, preventing secondary reactions that produce gases.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗