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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

GCR Environmental Models I: Sensitivity Analysis for GCR Environments

Accurate galactic cosmic ray (GCR) models are required to assess crew exposure during long-duration missions to the Moon or Mars. Many of these models have been developed and compared to available measurements, with uncertainty estimates usually stated to be less than 15%. However, when the models are evaluated over a common epoch and propagated through to effective dose, relative differences exceeding 50% are observed. This indicates that the metrics used to communicate GCR model uncertainty can be better tied to exposure quantities of interest for shielding applications. This is the first of three papers focused on addressing this need. In this work, the focus is on quantifying the extent to which each GCR ion and energy group, prior to entering any shielding material or body tissue, contributes to effective dose behind shielding. Results can be used to more accurately calibrate model-free parameters and provide a mechanism for refocusing validation efforts on measurements taken over important energy regions. Results can also be used as references to guide future nuclear cross-section measurements and radiobiology experiments. It is found that GCR with Z>2 and boundary energies below 500 MeV/n induce less than 5% of the total effective dose behind shielding. This finding is important given that most of the GCR models are developed and validated against Advanced Composition Explorer/Cosmic Ray Isotope Spectrometer (ACE/CRIS) measurements taken below 500 MeV/n. It is therefore possible for two models to very accurately reproduce the ACE/CRIS data while inducing very different effective dose values behind shielding.

Slaba, Tony C.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Sensitivities of Modeled Tropical Cyclones to Surface Friction and the Coriolis Parameter

In this investigation the sensitivities of a 2-D tropical cyclone (TC) model to surface frictional coefficient and the Coriolis parameter are studied and their implication is discussed. The model used is an axisymmetric version of the latest version of the Goddard cloud ensemble model. The model has stretched vertical grids with 33 levels varying from 30 m near the bottom to 1140 m near the top. The vertical domain is about 21 km. The horizontal domain covers a radius of 962 km (770 grids) with a grid size of 1.25 km. The time step is 10 seconds. An open lateral boundary condition is used. The sea surface temperature is specified at 29C. Unless specified otherwise, the Coriolis parameter is set at its value at 15 deg N. The Newtonian cooling is used with a time scale of 12 hours. The reference vertical temperature profile used in the Newtonian cooling is that of Jordan. The Newtonian cooling models not only the effect of radiative processes but also the effect of processes with scale larger than that of TC. Our experiments showed that if the Newtonian cooling is replaced by a radiation package, the simulated TC is much weaker. The initial condition has a temperature uniform in the radial direction and its vertical profile is that of Jordan. The initial winds are a weak Rankin vortex in the tangential winds superimposed on a resting atmosphere. The initial sea level pressure is set at 1015 hPa everywhere. Since there is no surface pressure perturbation, the initial condition is not in gradient balance. This initial condition is enough to lead to cyclogenesis, but the initial stage (say, the first 24 hrs) is not considered to resemble anything observed. The control experiment reaches quasi-equilibration after about 10 days with an eye wall extending from 15 to 25 km radius, reasonable comparing with the observations. The maximum surface wind of more than 70 m/s is located at about 18 km radius. The minimum sea level pressure on day 10 is about 886 hPa. Thus the overall simulation is considered successful and the model is considered adequate for our investigation.

Chao, Winston C.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Microwave Properties of Ice-Phase Hydrometeors for Radar and Radiometers: Sensitivity to Model Assumptions

A simplied framework is presented for assessing the qualitative sensitivities of computed microwave properties, satellite brightness temperatures, and radar reflectivities to assumptions concerning the physical properties of ice-phase hydrometeors. Properties considered included the shape parameter of a gamma size distribution andthe melted-equivalent mass median diameter D0, the particle density, dielectric mixing formula, and the choice of complex index of refraction for ice. We examine these properties at selected radiometer frequencies of 18.7, 36.5, 89.0, and 150.0 GHz; and radar frequencies at 2.8, 13.4, 35.6, and 94.0 GHz consistent with existing and planned remote sensing instruments. Passive and active microwave observables of ice particles arefound to be extremely sensitive to the melted-equivalent mass median diameter D0 ofthe size distribution. Similar large sensitivities are found for variations in the ice vol-ume fraction whenever the geometric mass median diameter exceeds approximately 1/8th of the wavelength. At 94 GHz the two-way path integrated attenuation is potentially large for dense compact particles. The distribution parameter mu has a relatively weak effect on any observable: less than 1-2 K in brightness temperature and up to 2.7 dB difference in the effective radar reflectivity. Reversal of the roles of ice and air in the MaxwellGarnett dielectric mixing formula leads to a signicant change in both microwave brightness temperature (10 K) and radar reflectivity (2 dB). The choice of Warren (1984) or Warren and Brandt (2008) for the complex index of refraction of ice can produce a 3%-4% change in the brightness temperature depression.

Microwave properties↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modelling the Sensitivity of Yukon River Biogeochemical Dynamics to Environmental and Chemical Drivers: Implications for Dissolved Organic Carbon

Riverine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is a critical biogeochemical component that transmits information from Arctic soils to the Arctic Ocean, significantly influencing carbon dynamics in this unique ecosystem. As DOC travels downstream, it undergoes transformations that alter its composition and fate. The Yukon River serves as an effective testbed for modelling these dynamics, offering sufficient scale to capture key biogeochemical processes while having a simpler hydrology than other major Arctic rivers, as well as long-term DOC observational data for model validation. To investigate DOC transformations during transit in the Yukon River, we adapted our Arctic Riverine Organic Macromolecular Model by applying regional-specific parameterisations. Our model simulates the transport and transformation of 15 organic macromolecules, including CDOM (coloured dissolved organic matter), proteins, polysaccharides, lipids, lignin phenols, and humic substances. Initial DOC concentrations were derived from observed soil organic carbon stocks in the surrounding watershed, while chemical transformations and hydrological dynamics were modelled along the river's course. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were conducted using a Monte Carlo approach under two experimental setups. Results revealed that variability in DOC and CDOM concentrations at the river mouth were predominantly driven by initial DOC concentration (~70% of variability explained) and dilution at confluence points (~10%). The refractory fraction of DOC explained 21%–88% of the variability in 14 macromolecular concentrations and ranked in the top five sensitive parameters for all outputs when a uniform parameter distribution was assumed. However, when a more likely variability was applied to this parameter, its influence on DOC and CDOM decreased. Given that refractory DOC accounts for ~80% of total DOC in Arctic Rivers, this suggests that most DOC resists degradation and retains its chemical composition during transport to the coastal environment. River velocity, which determines residence time, explained 8%–47% of the variability in protein, polysaccharide, lipid, pigments, and lignin phenols at the river mouth. In contrast, chemical turnover times contributed only 1%–5% to output variability. Our findings underscore the need for improved land-specific headwater observations, including seasonal soil moisture and lateral transport dynamics that control the initial tributary-specific DOC inputs. With accelerated permafrost thaw and increasing river discharge, extending our model to other Arctic River systems and seasons will enhance understanding of Arctic riverine carbon fluxes and their contributions to the Arctic Ocean.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity of modelled passive margin stratigraphy to variations in sea level, sediment supply and subsidence

Abstract We produced a 10 Myr synthetic stratigraphic section using a forward stratigraphic model that generates marine deltaic stratigraphy over geological timescales. We recursively fit the model using a Bayesian inversion algorithm to test: (1) if it could be accurately reconstructed; (2) if the parameters used to create it could be recovered; and (3) the sensitivity of the model output to given model parameters and the attendant physical processes. The original synthetic stratigraphic section was produced with cyclical sea‐level variations of 40 and 30 m with 2.4 and 10 Myr periods respectively. Sediment was also supplied cyclically, in 2.4 and 10 Myr cycles with amplitudes of 30 and 80 tons/100 kyr, respectively, varying from a mean of 232 tons/100 kyr. Parameter values were sampled to fit the model using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, resulting in a ±5 m (1σ) variation between the experimental output and the original. Sea level varied by ±7 m (1σ) within the posterior distribution of parameters. As a result, both the 10 Myr and 2.4 Myr sea‐level cycles could be extracted from the original output. The variation in sediment supply was approximately ±38 tons/100 kyr (1σ) and, as a result, only the larger long‐term supply variations could be accurately recovered in refitting the model. The variation in thermal, flexural and total subsidence across those parameter sets is less than ±10 m (1σ). The original section experienced 150 m of total subsidence at the depocentre. Our results demonstrate the distinct and interpretable imprint of sea level and subsidence on continental margin stratigraphy can be quantified. Moreover, we conclude that sea‐level change produces a defined effect on the geometries of stratigraphic architecture, and that techniques applied for the purpose of delineating sea‐level variation from continental margin strata have a well‐founded conceptual basis.

Schmelz, William J.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Sensitivity of model calculations to uncertain inputs, with an application to neutron star envelopes

A method is given for determining the sensitivity of certain types of calculations to the uncertainties in the input physics or model parameters; this method is applicable to problems that involve solutions to coupled, ordinary differential equations. In particular the sensitivity of calculations of the thermal structure of neutron star envelopes to uncertainties in the opacity and equation of state is examined. It is found that the uncertainties in the relationship between the surface and interior temperatures of a neutron star are due almost entirely to the imprecision in the values of the conductive opacity in the region where the ions form a liquid; here the conductive opacity is, for the most part, due to the scattering of electrons from ions.

Epstein, R. I.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Modeling ozone episodes in the Baltimore-Washington region

Surface ozone (O3) concentrations in excess of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) continue to occur in metropolitan areas in the United States despite efforts to control emissions of O3 precursors. Future O3 control strategies will be based on results from modeling efforts that have just begun in many areas. Two initial questions that arise are model sensitivity to domain-specific conditions and the selection of episodes for model evaluation and control strategy development. For the Baltimore-Washington region (B-W), the presence of the Chesapeake Bay introduces a number of issues relevant to model sensitivity. In this paper, the specific questions of the determination of model volume (mixing height) for the Urban Airshed Model (UAM) is discussed and various alternative methods compared. For the latter question, several analytic approaches, Cluster Analysis and classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis are undertaken to determine meteorological conditions associated with severe O3 events in the B-W domain.

Ryan, William F.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Numerical Simulation of a Natural Convection–Driven Air-Cooled Reactor Cavity Cooling System Experiment

Ensuring the efficient removal of decay heat from the reactor vessel is essential for the safety of advanced reactor technologies. Several Generation-IV concepts incorporate variations in the reactor vessel cooling systems to achieve this objective. High-temperature gas-cooled reactors utilize a reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS), a passive ex-vessel system designed to operate without active components or external power during accident conditions. The RCCS removes decay heat primarily through radiative and convective heat transfer mechanisms. Here, this study presents a comprehensive validation of a computational fluid dynamics Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes model for the University of Wisconsin-Madison air-cooled RCCS facility. Validation was conducted for both high- and low-power natural convection cases under a uniform heating profile. Near-wall resolution was found to be critical for accurately modeling natural convection in the RCCS; employing an all-𝑦 + wall treatment resulted in wall temperature discrepancies exceeding 50 °⁢𝐶 compared to a wall-resolved mesh. Thermal-hydraulic behaviors under natural and forced convection conditions were compared within the heated cavity and RCCS. A turbulence model sensitivity analysis indicated that low-Reynolds number k-ɛ, k-ω shear stress transport (SST), and Reynolds stress transport models produce similar wall temperature predictions. A buoyancy modeling sensitivity study revealed that the Boussinesq approximation significantly underpredicted thermal-hydraulic behavior in the RCCS. Based on these findings, modeling recommendations are provided. The validated data set along with identified sensitivities refine the modeling of natural convection in the RCCS. The information produced by this study supports RCCS design, optimization, and safety evaluations, enabling the calibration and verification of reduced-order thermal-hydraulic models.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

PSA 2025 Presentation: "Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis of a Generation IV Pebble Bed Reactor Using MELCOR 2.2"

Accompanying the advancement of reactor technologies is the need for computational modeling and simulation to predict their behavior under normal operating conditions and accident scenarios. New Generation IV reactor designs which employ non-conventional fuel have a particular need for modeling the behavior and release of radionuclides and other material from the fuel. In this work, MELCOR version 2.2, a system-level safety and accident scenario code developed by Sandia National Laboratories, was used to model a 200-MWth pebble bed modular reactor and calculate the inventories of circulating and deposited graphite, metal dust, and elemental components released from the fuel elements. A base case modeling the reactor under standard operating conditions was calculated using MELCOR and the inventories were extrapolated to 30 years of operation time using a logarithmic regression fit. A sensitivity analysis was also performed in which several key parameters for the base case model were modified to explore the effect of these changes on the inventories calculated by MELCOR. A set of transient scenario simulations for a depressurized loss of forced cooling (DLOFC) accident were also performed. The results of the sensitivity analysis and transient simulations are reported and discussed in relation to the modeling techniques used for this study.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS2010

Prospects for Habitable World Detections Using James Webb Space Telescope (JWST)

Doppler and transit surveys are finding extrasolar planets of ever smaller mass and radius, and are now sampling the domain of superEarths. Recent results from the Doppler surveys suggest that discovery of a transiting superEarth in the habitable zone of a lower main sequence star may be possible. We evaluate the prospects for an all-sky transit survey targeted to the brightest stars I that would find the most favorable cases for photometric and spectroscopic characterization using the James Webb Space Telescope. We use the proposed Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) as representative of an all-sky survey. We couple the simulated TESS yield to a sensitivity model for the MIRI and NIRSpec instruments on JWST. Our sensitivity model includes all currently known and anticipated sources of random and systematic error for these instruments. We focus on the TESS planets with radii between Earth and Neptune. Our simulations consider secondary eclipse filter photometry using JWST/MIRI, comparing the 11- and 15- micron bands to measure carbon dioxide absorption in superEarths, as well as JWST!NIRSpec spectroscopy of water absorption from 1.7-3.0 microns, and carbon dioxide absorption at 4.3 microns. We find that JWST will be capable of characterizing dozens of TESS superEarths with temperatures above the habitable range, using both MIRI and NIRspec. We project that TESS will discover about eight nearby habitable transiting superEarths, all orbiting lower main sequence stars. The principal sources of uncertainty in the prospects for JWST characterization of habitable superEarths are superEarth frequency and the nature of superEarth atmospheres. Based on our estimates of these uncertainties, we project that JWST will be able to measure the temperature, and identify molecular absorptions (water, carbon dioxide) in one to four nearby habitable TESS superEarths orbiting lower main sequence stars.

Deming, Drake↗
NASA NTRS2014

Hypersonic Separated Flows About "Tick" Configurations With Sensitivity to Model Design

This paper presents computational results obtained by applying the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method for hypersonic nonequilibrium flow about "tick-shaped" model configurations. These test models produces a complex flow where the nonequilibrium and rarefied aspects of the flow are initially enhanced as the flow passes over an expansion surface, and then the flow encounters a compression surface that can induce flow separation. The resulting flow is such that meaningful numerical simulations must have the capability to account for a significant range of rarefaction effects; hence the application of the DSMC method in the current study as the flow spans several flow regimes, including transitional, slip, and continuum. The current focus is to examine the sensitivity of both the model surface response (heating, friction and pressure) and flowfield structure to assumptions regarding surface boundary conditions and more extensively the impact of model design as influenced by leading edge configuration as well as the geometrical features of the expansion and compression surfaces. Numerical results indicate a strong sensitivity to both the extent of the leading edge sharpness and the magnitude of the leading edge bevel angle. Also, the length of the expansion surface for a fixed compression surface has a significant impact on the extent of separated flow.

Moss, J. N.↗
DOE OSTI2023

High-Fidelity Numerical Investigation on Elucidating Sodium Heat Transfer Characteristics for 37-Pin Wire-Wrapped Fuel Bundle in the PLANDTL Facility

This study involved a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes- (RANS-) based computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis of the 37-pin wire-wrapped fuel bundle of the PNC Plant dynamics test loop (PLANDTL) facility. Previously, mainly the hydrodynamic phenomena of the wire-wrapped fuel bundle were analyzed, but the present study additionally included heat transfer analysis through conjugate heat transfer. The main purpose of the study was to benchmark the experimental data of the PLANDTL 37-pin wire-wrapped fuel bundle to investigate the heat transfer phenomena. In addition, the aim was to verify the accuracy of the RANS-based CFD analysis method using the STAR-CCM+ simulation software in comparison with the experimental data. The grid used for verification was an innovative grid system consisting of hexahedra using Fortran-based code. The development of the RANS-based CFD methodology included grid sensitivity analysis, turbulence model sensitivity analysis, and turbulent Prandtl number sensitivity analysis. Information on the temperature, mass flow rate, and area of the CFD results for each subchannel was provided for the top of the heated section and is expected to serve as a reference for future studies aiming to perform the validation and verification of a PLANDTL facility. In addition, the dependence of the peak temperature on the azimuth angle of each pin was analyzed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

FY21 Status Report: Probabilistic SCC Model for SNF Dry Storage Canisters

Stress corrosion cracking (SCC) is an important failure degradation mechanism for storage of spent nuclear fuel. Since 2014, Sandia National Laboratories has been developing a probabilistic methodology for predicting SCC. The model is intended to provide qualitative assessment of data needs, model sensitivities, and future model development. In fiscal year 2021, improvement of the SCC model focused on the salt deposition, maximum pit size, and crack growth rate models.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1979

The NASA-Ames Research Center stratospheric aerosol model. 2. Sensitivity studies and comparison with observatories

Sensitivity tests were performed on a one-dimensional, physical-chemical model of the unperturbed stratospheric aerosols, and model calculations were compared with observations. The tests and comparisons suggest that coagulation controls the particle number mixing ratio, although the number of condensation nuclei at the tropopause and the diffusion coefficient at high altitudes are also important. The sulfur gas source strength and the aerosol residence time are much more important than the supply of condensation nuclei in establishing mass and large particle concentrations. The particle size is also controlled mainly by gas supply and residence time. In situ observations of the aerosols and laboratory measurements of aerosols, parameters that can provide further information about the physics and chemistry of the stratosphere and the aerosols found there are provided.

Toon, O. B.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Effects of dynamic heat fluxes on model climate sensitivity Meridional sensible and latent heat fluxes

The high- and low-latitude radiative-dynamic (HLRD) climatic model of Wang et al. (1984) was used to study the effect of meridional heat (MH) fluxes on climate changes caused by increases of CO2 abundance and solar constant variations. However, the empirical MH parameterization of the HLRD model was replaced by physically based parameterization, which gives separate meridional sensible and latent heat fluxes and provides a complete representation of the dependence of the flux on the mean temperature field. Both parameterization methods yielded about the same changes in global mean surface temperature and ice line, and both produced only small changes in meridional temperature gradient, although the latter were even smaller with the physically based parameterizations. At any latitude, the hemispheric mean surface temperature, rather than MH fluxes, dominates the surface temperature changes.

Gutowski, W. J., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Neural Network and Regression Methods Demonstrated in the Design Optimization of a Subsonic Aircraft

The neural network and regression methods of NASA Glenn Research Center s COMETBOARDS design optimization testbed were used to generate approximate analysis and design models for a subsonic aircraft operating at Mach 0.85 cruise speed. The analytical model is defined by nine design variables: wing aspect ratio, engine thrust, wing area, sweep angle, chord-thickness ratio, turbine temperature, pressure ratio, bypass ratio, fan pressure; and eight response parameters: weight, landing velocity, takeoff and landing field lengths, approach thrust, overall efficiency, and compressor pressure and temperature. The variables were adjusted to optimally balance the engines to the airframe. The solution strategy included a sensitivity model and the soft analysis model. Researchers generated the sensitivity model by training the approximators to predict an optimum design. The trained neural network predicted all response variables, within 5-percent error. This was reduced to 1 percent by the regression method. The soft analysis model was developed to replace aircraft analysis as the reanalyzer in design optimization. Soft models have been generated for a neural network method, a regression method, and a hybrid method obtained by combining the approximators. The performance of the models is graphed for aircraft weight versus thrust as well as for wing area and turbine temperature. The regression method followed the analytical solution with little error. The neural network exhibited 5-percent maximum error over all parameters. Performance of the hybrid method was intermediate in comparison to the individual approximators. Error in the response variable is smaller than that shown in the figure because of a distortion scale factor. The overall performance of the approximators was considered to be satisfactory because aircraft analysis with NASA Langley Research Center s FLOPS (Flight Optimization System) code is a synthesis of diverse disciplines: weight estimation, aerodynamic analysis, engine cycle analysis, propulsion data interpolation, mission performance, airfield length for landing and takeoff, noise footprint, and others.

Hopkins, Dale A.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Sensitivity of modeled Indian monsoon to Chinese and Indian aerosol emissions

The South Asian summer monsoon supplies over 80 % of India's precipitation. Industrialization over the past few decades has resulted in severe aerosol pollution in India. Understanding monsoonal sensitivity to aerosol emissions in general circulation models (GCMs) could improve predictability of observed future precipitation changes. The aims here are (1) to assess the role of aerosols in India's monsoon precipitation and (2) to determine the roles of local and regional emissions. For (1), we study the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project experiments. We find that the precipitation response to changes in black carbon is highly uncertain with a large intermodel spread due in part to model differences in simulating changes in cloud vertical profiles. Effects from sulfate are clearer; increased sulfate reduces Indian precipitation, a consistency through all of the models studied here. For (2), we study bespoke simulations, with reduced Chinese and/or Indian emissions in three GCMs. A significant increase in precipitation (up to ∼20 %) is found only when both countries' sulfur emissions are regulated, which has been driven in large part by dynamic shifts in the location of convective regions in India. These changes have the potential to restore a portion of the precipitation losses induced by sulfate forcing over the last few decades.

Indian monsoons↗