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NASA NTRS2024

Dust Model Sensitivity to Dust Source Mask, Sandblasting Efficiency, Air Density, and Land Use: Implications for Model Improvement

This study compares dust storm simulations using two commonly adopted methods for representing four important dust emission parameters. Compared to a dynamic dust source mask based on land use and vegetation cover, a static mask based solely on land use overestimates dust concentration and optical depth by a factor of 2, besides generating spurious emissions. The results reinforce that seasonal variations in vegetation cover can significantly affect dust emissions. For sandblasting efficiency, a clay-dependent semiempirical expression produces 10 times more dust than a physics-based expression. Simulations using model-predicted versus a fixed constant for air density differ by only 8%. However, this difference could range between 12 and 22% for annual simulations over global dust source regions. Simulations with updated versus old land use data, using the same dust source mask, differ twofold, indicating the significant impact of land use change on regional dust emission in central Arizona. The differences in the pairs of these simulations are generally larger than the uncertainty due to meteorology. The simulations align better with observation when using the dynamic dust source mask, the physics-based sandblasting efficiency, and the up-to-date land use data. Given the high sensitivity of dust to surface conditions, the results discussed have implications for improving the dust cycle in weather and climate models and for interpreting model intercomparisons.

Dust-emission source↗

NASA NTRS1993

Driving terrestrial ecosystem models from space

Regional air pollution, land-use conversion, and projected climate change all affect ecosystem processes at large scales. Changes in vegetation cover and growth dynamics can impact the functioning of ecosystems, carbon fluxes, and climate. As a result, there is a need to assess and monitor vegetation structure and function comprehensively at regional to global scales. To provide a test of our present understanding of how ecosystems operate at large scales we can compare model predictions of CO2, O2, and methane exchange with the atmosphere against regional measurements of interannual variation in the atmospheric concentration of these gases. Recent advances in remote sensing of the Earth's surface are beginning to provide methods for estimating important ecosystem variables at large scales. Ecologists attempting to generalize across landscapes have made extensive use of models and remote sensing technology. The success of such ventures is dependent on merging insights and expertise from two distinct fields. Ecologists must provide the understanding of how well models emulate important biological variables and their interactions; experts in remote sensing must provide the biophysical interpretation of complex optical reflectance and radar backscatter data.

Waring, R. H.↗

NASA NTRS2016

A 30+ Year AVHRR LAI and FAPAR Climate Data Record: Algorithm Description, Validation, and Case Study

In- land surface models, which are used to evaluate the role of vegetation in the context ofglobal climate change and variability, LAI and FAPAR play a key role, specifically with respect to thecarbon and water cycles. The AVHRR-based LAIFAPAR dataset offers daily temporal resolution,an improvement over previous products. This climate data record is based on a carefully calibratedand corrected land surface reflectance dataset to provide a high-quality, consistent time-series suitablefor climate studies. It spans from mid-1981 to the present. Further, this operational dataset is availablein near real-time allowing use for monitoring purposes. The algorithm relies on artificial neuralnetworks calibrated using the MODIS LAI/FAPAR dataset. Evaluation based on cross-comparisonwith MODIS products and in situ data show the dataset is consistent and reliable with overalluncertainties of 1.03 and 0.15 for LAI and FAPAR, respectively. However, a clear saturation effect isobserved in the broadleaf forest biomes with high LAI (greater than 4.5) and FAPAR (greater than 0.8) values.

MODIS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Building Capacity to Use Earth Observations for Land Monitoring: A Synoptic Review of NASA DEVELOP’s Terrestrial Projects

The NASA DEVELOP Program addresses environmental and public policy issues through interdisciplinary research studies that apply the lens of Earth observations to decision making. The program builds capacity in both programmatic participants (e.g., students and recent graduates) and partner organizations (e.g., federal agencies and non-governmental organizations) to use and integrate Earth science information into environmental decision making. DEVELOP conducts 50-60 projects each year, with approximately three quarters of projects focusing on terrestrial-related topics such as monitoring and assessing land use/land change, vegetation health, agriculture, water resources, and urban development. This presentation will share the DEVELOP model for building capacity, highlight example project case studies, and share lessons learned working with a wide variety of partner organizations.

Capacity Building↗

NASA NTRS2024

Effects of Water Limitation and Competition on Tree Carbon Allocation in an Earth System Modeling Framework

Earth system models (ESMs) have a limited capacity to represent plant functional diversity and shifts in trait distributions. Approaches to improving the representation of this complexity in ESMs include (i) optimality-based approaches that predict trait–environment responses and (ii) explicitly modelling coexistence and community assembly. These approaches are expected to converge only when optimality-based approaches identify competitively dominant strategies, which often differ from strategies that maximize ecosystem functioning or fitness components in monoculture. We used two models, LM3-PPA (a vegetation demographic model designed as an ESM component) and BiomeE (a computationally efficient analog for LM3-PPA), to explore how water limitation affects carbon allocation strategies of canopy trees. We compared competitive allocation strategies and those that maximize biomass or productivity in monoculture. We did not explicitly model coexistence or community assembly. Rather, we used model experiments to identify competitive and maximizing strategies in a two-dimensional trait space under different precipitation and mortality scenarios. At 10 eastern US locations, we simulated historical, wet and dry climate scenarios, novel drought and three different mortality scenarios (low, medium or high sensitivity to water deficit). For each site and scenario, we identified the competitive strategy and three maximizing strategies (maximum biomass, productivity or drought-tolerance). Root: leaf ratios tended to increase and leaf area tended to decrease with increasing water stress (increasing water limitation and its effects on mortality). However, relative to maximizing strategies, competitive strategies shifted towards greater allocation to roots and leaves with increasing water stress. Competitive overinvestments (greater allocation to roots and leaves by competitive strategies compared with maximizing strategies) were robust across different modelling contexts, including vegetation parameter sets (Acer vs. Populus), models (LM3-PPA vs. BiomeE) and uncalibrated vs. calibrated BiomeE versions. Synthesis: The theoretical prediction that competitive and maximizing allocation strategies differ under water limitation is confirmed for a demographic model designed as an ESM component. Optimality-based trait predictions can simplify representing trait diversity in ESMs but do not always correspond to competitive outcomes. Explicitly modelling coexistence and community assembly in ESMs is challenging but is likely the most general approach to representing trait diversity.

vegetation demographic model↗

NASA NTRS2019

Mid-Latitude Freshwater Availability Reduced by Projected Vegetation Responses to Climate Change

Plants are expected to generate more global-scale runoff under increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations through their influence on surface resistance to evapotranspiration. Recent studies using Earth System Models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ostensibly reaffirm this result, further suggesting that plants will ameliorate the dire reductions in water availability projected by other studies that use aridity metrics. Here we complicate this narrative by analysing the change in precipitation partitioning to plants, runoff and storage in multiple Earth system models under both high carbon dioxide concentrations and warming. We show that projected plant responses directly reduce future runoff across vast swaths of North America, Europe and Asia because bulk canopy water demands increase with additional vegetation growth and longer and warmer growing seasons. These runoff declines occur despite increased surface resistance to evapotranspiration and vegetation total water use efficiency, even in regions with increasing or unchanging precipitation. We demonstrate that constraining the large uncertainty in the multimodel ensemble with regional-scale observations of evapotranspiration partitioning strengthens these results. We conclude that terrestrial vegetation plays a large and unresolved role in shaping future regional freshwater availability, one that will not ubiquitously ameliorate future warming-driven surface drying.

Mankin, Justin S.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Modeling Phenological Controls on Carbon Dynamics in Dryland Sagebrush Ecosystems

Dryland ecosystems play an important role in determining how precipitation anomalies affect terrestrial carbonfluxes at regional to global scales. Thus, to understand how climate change may affect the global carbon cycle,we must also be able to understand and model its effects on dryland vegetation. Dynamic Global VegetationModels (DGVMs) are an important tool for modeling ecosystem dynamics, but they often struggle to reproduceseasonal patterns of plant productivity. Because the phenological niche of many plant species is linked to bothtotal productivity and competitive interactions with other plants, errors in how process-based models representphenology hinder our ability to predict climate change impacts. This may be particularly problematic in drylandecosystems where many species have developed a complex phenology in response to seasonal variability in bothmoisture and temperature. Here, we examine how uncertainty in key parameters as well as the structure ofexisting phenology routines affect the ability of a DGVM to match seasonal patterns of leaf area index (LAI) andgross primary productivity (GPP) across a temperature and precipitation gradient. First, we optimized modelparameters using a combination of site-level eddy covariance data and remotely-sensed LAI data. Second, wemodified the model to include a semi-deciduous phenology type and added flexibility to the representation ofgrass phenology. While optimizing parameters reduced model bias, the largest gains in model performance wereassociated with the development of our new representation of phenology. This modified model was able to bettercapture seasonal patterns of both leaf area index (R2=0.75) and gross primary productivity (R2=0.84), thoughits ability to estimate total annual GPP depended on using eddy covariance data for optimization. The new modelalso resulted in a more realistic outcome of modeled competition between grass and shrubs. These findingsdemonstrate the importance of improving how DGVMs represent phenology in order to accurately forecastclimate change impacts in dryland ecosystems.

Ecosystem model Phenology Parameter optimization E↗

NASA NTRS2019

Modeling Phenological Controls on Carbon Dynamics in Dryland Sagebrush Ecosystems

Dryland ecosystems play an important role in determining how precipitation anomalies affect terrestrial carbon fluxes at regional to global scales. Thus, to understand how climate change may affect the global carbon cycle, we must also be able to understand and model its effects on dryland vegetation. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are an important tool for modeling ecosystem dynamics, but they often struggle to reproduce seasonal patterns of plant productivity. Because the phenological niche of many plant species is linked to both total productivity and competitive interactions with other plants, errors in how process-based models represent phenology hinder our ability to predict climate change impacts. This may be particularly problematic in dryland ecosystems where many species have developed a complex phenology in response to seasonal variability in both moisture and temperature. Here, we examine how uncertainty in key parameters as well as the structure of existing phenology routines affect the ability of a DGVM to match seasonal patterns of leaf area index (LAI) and gross primary productivity (GPP) across a temperature and precipitation gradient. First, we optimized model parameters using a combination of site-level eddy covariance data and remotely-sensed LAI data. Second, we modified the model to include a semi-deciduous phenology type and added flexibility to the representation of grass phenology. While optimizing parameters reduced model bias, the largest gains in model performance were associated with the development of our new representation of phenology. This modified model was able to better capture seasonal patterns of both leaf area index (R(exp 2) = 0.75) and gross primary productivity (R(exp 2) = 0.84), though its ability to estimate total annual GPP depended on using eddy covariance data for optimization. The new model also resulted in a more realistic outcome of modeled competition between grass and shrubs. These findings demonstrate the importance of improving how DGVMs represent phenology in order to accurately forecast climate change impacts in dryland ecosystems.

Ecosystem model↗

NASA NTRS2018

Global Changes in the Diurnal Cycle of Surface Ozone

Changing emissions of NOx and other ozone precursors drive trends in both production and loss of surface ozone, leading to surface ozone trends that differ according to the time of day. Consequently, the magnitude of the diurnal cycle in surface ozone is changing in several regions of the world. Changes in the diurnal cycle of ozone have implications for the metrics used to assess the impact of ozone on human health and vegetation, since different metrics are sensitive to different portions of the diurnal cycle. We use a high resolution model simulation to examine global changes in the magnitude of the diurnal cycle of O3 between 1980 and 2015. The simulation reproduces the negative trends in the tropospheric NO2 column over the eastern United States and Europe, and the positive trends over East Asia, seen by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). It also gives a reasonable reproduction of the change in the diurnal cycle of surface ozone seen at rural sites in the eastern United States between the 1990s and 2000s. The simulation shows that the magnitude of the surface O3 diurnal cycle is increasing in regions with positive changes in NOx emissions, such as South and East Asia, and decreasing in regions with reductions in NOx emissions. It also shows changes in the diurnal cycle of the tropospheric ozone column, although these have fewer regions with statistically significant trends. These changes suggest that daily mean ozone is responding less than the mid-day ozone measured by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and OMI.

Trends↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Wildfire Risk Support via Satellite-Derived Vegetation Health and Land Surface Model Soil Moisture

Land Surface Model (LSM) and evaporative demand products provide advanced lead time to wildfire conditions that complement traditional fire indices and represent short-term changes that add context to overall, long-term drought conditions. Established fire indices typically use weather indicators (i.e., precipitation, temperature) and estimated dead fuel moisture to indirectly obtain land surface and sub-surface characterization. The convergence of LSM shallow and deep-layer soil moisture output and satellite-derived vegetation health combine to provide a tool for stakeholders to examine trends in the state of land surface conditions that can help assess wildfire threat. Satellite remote sensing data can constrain near-real time vegetation characteristics within the LSM and/or provide a derived stress index in order to help characterize the wildfire risk. In addition, a percentile product of soil moisture is derived from a comparison of current LSM conditions to the historical record of the LSM in order to put the current conditions in perspective relative to the season and geographic region. The 2015 season as well as the 2018 Camp Fire Complex in California were examined in terms of the changes in LSM soil moisture and vegetation states. Satellite vegetation health consistently showed decreases a month prior to wildfire initiation. Additionally, maximum changes in total column soil moisture corresponded with the greatest concentration of fire locations. While soil moisture deficits occurred in the shallow layers across northern California in 2018, significant deficits at all sub-surface levels were seen ahead of the Camp Fire event. This presentation will demonstrate the complementary value of LSM output and satellite measured vegetation health to diagnose short-term deficits in sub-surface soil moisture and the rapid decline in vegetation health which precedes large wildfire events.

Wildfire↗

NASA NTRS1985

Sources of atmospheric methane from wetlands

Through the use of a computerized Geographic Information Service (GIS), field data on methane emissions and water inundation levels have been combined with remotely sensed vegetation cover data. This permits a more precise extrapolation of point flux measurements to regional scale flux estimates. Since the GIS allows changes in environmental variables to be included in the model, the sensitivity of emissions on large scales to changes in these parameters may be studied. Here, methane flux measurements from the Everglades marsh complex are reported, giving the flux by vegetation class.

Bartlett, K. B.↗

NASA NTRS2018

AMSR2 Soil Moisture Downscaling Using Temperature and Vegetation Data

Soil moisture (SM) applications in terrestrial hydrology require higher spatial resolution soil moisture products than those provided by passive microwave remote sensing instruments (grid resolution of 9 km or larger). In this investigation, an innovative algorithm that uses visible/infrared remote sensing observations to downscale Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) coarse spatial resolution SM products was developed and implemented for use with data provided by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2). The method is based on using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) modulated relationships between day/night SM and temperature change at corresponding times. Land surface model output variables from the North America Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), remote sensing data from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) were used in this methodology. The functional relationships developed using NLDAS data at a grid resolution of 12.5 km were applied to downscale AMSR2 JAXA (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) SM product (25 km) using MODIS land surface temperature (LST) and NDVI observations (1 km) to produce the 1 km SM estimates. The downscaled SM estimates were validated by comparing them with ISMN (International Soil Moisture Network) in situ SM in the Black Bear-Red Rock watershed, central Oklahoma between 2015-2017. The overall statistical variables of the downscaled AMSR2 SM validation R2, slope, RMSE and bias, demonstrate good accuracy. The downscaled SM better characterized the spatial and temporal variability of SM at watershed scales than the original SM product.

AMSR2; passive microwave soil moisture; soil moist↗

NASA NTRS2024

The Economics of Farming Expansion in the Brazilian Cerrado Under Possible Effects of Climate Change

This analysis assesses the financial viability of legally investing in native Cerrado vegetation deforestation for crop production, considering climate change. The study uses data from twelve different crop models based on three different climate models to predict potential future crop yields in cleared land for growing soy and maize. The outcomes show that in many micro-regions, investments in clearing land for crop production would destroy economic value, that is, generate a negative net present value because of low/negative and volatile cashflows driven primarily by future yields as affected by climate. Our analysis was carried out based on present agricultural practices and technology. As climate changes, farmers may adapt their practices, which can lead to more resilient and productive crops, or grow different crops, which could provide better returns on investment in clearing land than the ones resulting from our analysis. Despite various uncertainties, farmers, policy makers and financial institutions should be aware of the climatic and financial risks associated with land clearing in Brazil, mainly in micro-regions in which all scenarios resulted in negative outcomes in the investment analysis.

agricultural expansion↗

NASA NTRS2020

An Observation‐Driven Approach to Improve Vegetation Phenology in a Global Land Surface Model

An empirical model calibration approach is presented that aims to approximate missing biosphere processes in a global land surface model without the need for substantial model structural changes. The strategy is implemented here using the NASA Catchment‐CN land surface model and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR). Existing plant functional types (PFTs) of the Catchment‐CN model are divided into three subtypes, based on the bias between the model‐simulated and MODIS‐observed FPAR. Separate sets of vegetation parameters for each subtype are then calibrated at a small number of grid cells with homogeneous, single‐PFT land cover, using MODIS FPAR reference observations from 2003 to 2009. The effectiveness of the empirical approach at improving the realism of modeled vegetation dynamics is investigated with two global model simulations for the period 2010–2016, one using the newly calibrated parameter values and the other using the original values. Globally, the calibrated parameters reduce the root mean square error (RMSE) of the modeled FPAR with respect to MODIS by 0.029 (∼10%) on average. In some regions, substantially larger RMSE reductions are achieved. RMSE reductions are primarily driven by model bias reductions, with neutral effects on the temporal correlation skill. While the empirical approach is suitable for achieving consistent model improvements, it is shown to be sensitive to the characteristics of the model error, specifically a dominance of the bias component in the case of Catchment‐CN. Ultimately, more fundamental model structural changes may be required to achieve better improvements.

J. Kolassa↗

NASA NTRS2005

An Improved Analysis of Forest Carbon Dynamics using Data Assimilation

There are two broad approaches to quantifying landscape C dynamics - by measuring changes in C stocks over time, or by measuring fluxes of C directly. However, these data may be patchy, and have gaps or biases. An alternative approach to generating C budgets has been to use process-based models, constructed to simulate the key processes involved in C exchange. However, the process of model building is arguably subjective, and parameters may be poorly defined. This paper demonstrates why data assimilation (DA) techniques - which combine stock and flux observations with a dynamic model - improve estimates of, and provide insights into, ecosystem carbon (C) exchanges. We use an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to link a series of measurements with a simple box model of C transformations. Measurements were collected at a young ponderosa pine stand in central Oregon over a 3-year period, and include eddy flux and soil C02 efflux data, litterfall collections, stem surveys, root and soil cores, and leaf area index data. The simple C model is a mass balance model with nine unknown parameters, tracking changes in C storage among five pools; foliar, wood and fine root pools in vegetation, and also fresh litter and soil organic matter (SOM) plus coarse woody debris pools. We nested the EnKF within an optimization routine to generate estimates from the data of the unknown parameters and the five initial conditions for the pools. The efficacy of the DA process can be judged by comparing the probability distributions of estimates produced with the EnKF analysis vs. those produced with reduced data or model alone. Using the model alone, estimated net ecosystem exchange of C (NEE)= -251 f 197g Cm-2 over the 3 years, compared with an estimate of -419 f 29gCm-2 when all observations were assimilated into the model. The uncertainty on daily measurements of NEE via eddy fluxes was estimated at 0.5gCm-2 day-1, but the uncertainty on assimilated estimates averaged 0.47 g Cm-2 day-1, and only exceeded 0.5gC m-2 day-1 on days where neither eddy flux nor soil efflux data were available. In generating C budgets, the assimilation process reduced the uncertainties associated with using data or model alone and the forecasts of NEE were statistically unbiased estimates. The results of the analysis emphasize the importance of time series as constraints. Occasional, rare measurements of stocks have limited use in constraining the estimates of other components of the C cycle. Long time series are particularly crucial for improving the analysis of pools with long time constants, such as SOM, woody biomass, and woody debris. Long-running forest stem surveys, and tree ring data, offer a rich resource that could be assimilated to provide an important constraint on C cycling of slow pools. For extending estimates of NEE across regions, DA can play a further important role, by assimilating remote-sensing data into the analysis of C cycles. We show, via sensitivity analysis, how assimilating an estimate of photosynthesis - which might be provided indirectly by remotely sensed data - improves the analysis of NEE.

Williams, Mathew↗

NASA NTRS1999

Sampling Soil for Characterization and Site Description

The sampling scheme for soil characterization within the GLOBE program is uniquely different from the sampling methods of the other protocols. The strategy is based on an understanding of the 5 soil forming factors (parent material, climate, biota, topography, and time) at each study site, and how each of these interact to produce a soil profile with unique characteristics and unique input and control into the atmospheric, biological, and hydrological systems. Soil profile characteristics, as opposed to soil moisture and temperature, vegetative growth, and atmospheric and hydrologic conditions, change very slowly, depending on the parameter being measured, ranging from seasonally to many thousands of years. Thus, soil information, including profile description and lab analysis, is collected only one time for each profile at a site. These data serve two purposes: 1) to supplement existing spatial information about soil profile characteristics across the landscape at local, regional, and global scales, and 2) to provide specific information within a given area about the basic substrate to which elements within the other protocols are linked. Because of the intimate link between soil properties and these other environmental elements, the static soil properties at a given site are needed to accurately interpret and understand the continually changing dynamics of soil moisture and temperature, vegetation growth and phenology, atmospheric conditions, and chemistry and turbidity in surface waters. Both the spatial and specific soil information can be used for modeling purposes to assess and make predictions about global change.

Levine, Elissa↗

NASA NTRS1992

Evaluating models of climate and forest vegetation

Understanding how the biosphere may respond to increasing trace gas concentrations in the atmosphere requires models that contain vegetation responses to regional climate. Most of the processes ecologists study in forests, including trophic interactions, nutrient cycling, and disturbance regimes, and vital components of the world economy, such as forest products and agriculture, will be influenced in potentially unexpected ways by changing climate. These vegetation changes affect climate in the following ways: changing C, N, and S pools; trace gases; albedo; and water balance. The complexity of the indirect interactions among variables that depend on climate, together with the range of different space/time scales that best describe these processes, make the problems of modeling and prediction enormously difficult. These problems of predicting vegetation response to climate warming and potential ways of testing model predictions are the subjects of this chapter.

Clark, James S.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Application of remote sensing in regional scale estimates of vegetation carbon budgets: The Belfix project

A concept for coupling the remote sensing derived fraction of the absorbed photosynthetic active radiation (FAPAR) with a functional ecosystem model was developed. The study was named the Belfix procedure. The quantification of changes in carbon dynamics at the ecosystem level is a key issue in studies of global climatic change effects at the vegetation atmosphere interface. An operational procedure, for the determination of carbon fluxes at the regional scale (Belgian territory), is presented. The approach allows for the determination of the sink function of vegetation for carbon (dioxide). The phyto- and litter mass, photosynthetic assimilation, autotroph and heterotroph carbon fluxes and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon, were evaluated. The results suggest that a single solution can be obtained for ecosystem rates and states, applying an iterative procedure, based on minimizing the change in maximal seasonal green phytomass in function of yearly FAPAR temporal profiles. Total phytomass values obtained are in close range with those obtained by ground sampling.

Veroustraete, Frank↗