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DOE OSTI2025

Modeling High Current Pulsed Discharge in AA Battery Cathodes: The Effect of Localized Charging during Rest

During high current operation, substantial heterogeneity develops within battery cathodes, particularly when their thickness is large. Heterogeneity relaxation during subsequent rest is important for understanding battery performance under pulsed conditions. Localized charge balancing phenomena within batteries at zero net current are not well understood and merit investigation. In this work, the heterogeneity within cathodes of commercial alkaline Zn–MnO 2 batteries is measured during discharge and monitored during rest using energy dispersive X-ray diffraction (EDXRD). Significant gradients in protonation form during discharge and partially relax under rest. It is demonstrated that the proton gradient relaxation is through local redox activity at zero net current, where local (de)protonation works to redistribute charge across the cathode thickness. To support this redox-based relaxation, a fundamental kinetic study on prismatic MnO 2 cathodes is conducted to determine an appropriate model to describe both discharge and charge kinetics of MnO 2 . These kinetics are incorporated into a computational model to simulate the proton gradient formation and partial relaxation under identical discharge conditions as the operando EDXRD experiments. Model and experimental data are found to be in excellent agreement, correctly predicting localized charge balancing at rest.

Batteries↗

NASA NTRS2017

Application of Sweeping Jet Actuators on the NASA Hump Model and Comparison with CFDVAL2004 Experiments

Flow separation control over a wall-mounted hump model was studied experimentally to assess the performance of sweeping jet actuators. Results were compared to that of the 2004 CFD validation experiment (CFDVAL2004), which examined flow separation control with steady suction and unsteady zero-net-mass-flow actuators. Comparisons were carried out at low and high amplitude excitations. In addition to the active flow control methods, a passive flow control method (i.e., vortex generator) was used to complement the dataset. Steady/unsteady surface pressure measurements and surface oilflow visualization were used in the performance assessment of the actuators. The results indicated that the sweeping jet actuators are more effective than the steady suction and unsteady zero-net-mass-flow actuators. For the same momentum coefficient, the sweeping jet actuators produced more flow acceleration upstream of separation, more pressure recovery downstream, and consistently a smaller separation bubble.

Koklu, Mehti↗

DOE OSTI2024

Informing forest carbon inventories under the Paris Agreement using ground-based forest monitoring data

Human interactions with forests have shaped Earth's climate for millennia and will continue to do so as we target net-zero emission goals. Accurately characterizing these climate impacts requires making reliable forest carbon data available for forest monitoring and planning. Here, we develop a semi-automated process for submitting forest carbon measurements from the largest relevant scientific database to the International Panel on Climate Change's Emission Factor Database, which currently has sparse forest carbon data. Building this bridge from scientific research to international policy is an important step towards managing forests in a net-zero motivated future. Humans have been influencing Earth's climate via transformative impacts on forests for millennia, and forests are now recognized as critical to climate change mitigation under the Paris Agreement. The efficacy of climate change mitigation planning and reporting depends on quality data on forest carbon (C) stocks and changes. The Emission Factor Database (EFDB) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is intended to be a definitive source for such data, but needs comprehensive and well-documented data to be so. To facilitate submission of forest C estimates from scientific studies to EFDB, we develop and document a process for semi-automated data submission from the Global Forest C database (ForC v4.0), which is the largest compilation of ground-based forest C estimates. We then assess the data currently available through ForC and provide recommendations for improving forest data collection, analysis, and reporting. As of September 2024, ForC contained ~19,286 records potentially relevant to EFDB, 1068 of which had been submitted and posted to EFDB. These represented 19% of the total EFDB records for forest land. Records were unevenly distributed across variables and geographic regions. ForC records (37%) reviewed could not be submitted because the original publication lacked required information. In the future, ground-based forest C estimates should target gaps in the record, and studies should ensure that they report all information necessary for inclusion in EFDB. Given that climate change is rapidly impacting the world's forests, timely reporting of recent estimates will be critical to accurate forest C inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Energy Technology Proving Ground Program Plan

New methods of energy production and distribution are required to meet clean energy goals and demands across all U.S. energy sectors. Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Integrated Energy Systems (IES) initiative is enabling clean energy research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) activities. To date, IES demonstration programs have been limited by distributed infrastructure and a lack of large-scale facilities to accommodate industry-scale research of Technical Readiness Level (TRL) 6-8 technologies. The IES initiative plans to eliminate these constraints by establishing a new research complex at INL known as the Energy Technology Proving Ground (Proving Ground) to be led by the Energy and Environment Science and Technology Directorate. The Energy and Environment Science and Technology (EES&T) directorate, one of five Idaho National Laboratory (INL) RD&D organizations, focuses on clean energy technologies that anchor the industry-enabling research of the Proving Ground. The Proving Ground will combine diverse clean energy systems into lean integrated test bed of independent multiscale capabilities available to the government and commercial industries to perform research; and will enable INL’s goal of becoming a Net-Zero entity by 2031. This program encompasses existing and new research space at both the in-town Research and Education Campus (REC) and the Arco desert site (the Site). The Proving Ground will support the maturation of IES technologies from TRL 1 through 8 by providing the infrastructure and capabilities needed to sustain a continuum of RD&D from basic science to industry-scale. To establish The Proving Ground and meet INL’s net-zero goals by 2031, nine research program areas have been identified within the IES initiative that require expanded and new capital infrastructure. This program plan provides guidance for establishing the Proving Ground at the Site for plug-and-play pilot testing and proofing of integrated energy system functionality including fission and renewable energy sources for industry driven application platforms.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Energy Technology Proving Ground FY-2026 Program Plan (Rev.1)

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2000

Control of Cavity Resonance Using Oscillatory Blowing

The near-zero net mass oscillatory blowing control of a subsonic cavity flow has been experimentally investigated. An actuator was designed and fabricated to provide both steady and oscillatory blowing over a range of blowing amplitudes and forcing frequencies. The blowing was applied just upstream of the cavity front Wall through interchangeable plate configurations These configurations enabled the effects of hole size, hole shape, and blowing angle to be examined. A significant finding is that in terms of the blowing amplitude, the near zero net mass oscillatory blowing is much more effective than steady blowing; momentum coefficients Lip two orders of magnitude smaller than those required for steady blowing are sufficient to accomplish the same control of cavity resonance. The detailed measurements obtained in the experiment include fluctuating pressure data within the cavity wall, and hot-wire measurements of the cavity shear layer. Spectral and wavelet analysis techniques are applied to understand the dynamics and mechanisms of the cavity flow with control. The oscillatory blowing, is effective in enhancing the mixing in the cavity shear layer and thus modifying the feedback loop associated with the cavity resonance. The nonlinear interactions in the cavity flow are no longer driven by the resonant cavity modes but by the forcing associated with the oscillatory blowing. The oscillatory blowing does not suppress the mode switching behavior of the cavity flow, but the amplitude modulation is reduced.

Scarfe, Alison Lamp↗

DOE OSTI2024

Wastewater hydrogen nexus (WwHeN): Greening the wastewater industry via integration with the hydrogen economy

As industries rally toward achieving net zero emissions, hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels are emerging as key players in decarbonization efforts. Although the primary technology for producing renewable natural gas has been well implemented in the wastewater industry, the “decarbonization based goal setting” is trailing. This perspective assimilates existing literature presented in other contexts to highlight the need for framing the decarbonization dialog by using green hydrogen as a potential pathway for the wastewater industry. Specifically, we note the importance of (a) developing the decarbonization or net zero focus in the wastewater industry, and (b) colocating the wastewater industry with hydrogen production facilities. Finally, we also delve into technological, cost, and operational considerations to understand the readiness level of key stakeholders to identify future research and development opportunities for the wastewater hydrogen nexus.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Pathways for decarbonization of the buildings sector in Ukraine

The paper focuses on Ukraine’s intention to achieve a two-thirds reduction in buildings’ energy consumption for heating and cooling by 2050, concurrently aiming for net zero greenhouse gas emissions and heightened energy security. Here, the study examines the outcomes of retrofitting existing residential, commercial, and public buildings with highly efficient materials, improving construction standards, and transitioning to advanced heating systems. However, Russia’s invasion in 2022 inflicted substantial damage, prompting a shift from retrofit and decarbonization to reconstruction. The Ukrainian government’s Reconstruction Plan emphasizes clean, sustainable, and resilient energy systems. The study employs energy system and integrated assessment models (TIMES-Ukraine and GCAM-Ukraine) to explore scenarios taking into consideration the war, reconstruction, and a net zero CO 2 pathway. Using two models allowed the inter-model comparison. The analysis addresses vital questions on energy resiliency measures and the compounding effects of decarbonization. Findings indicate that Ukraine’s energy goals can be met through strategic retrofitting and economy-wide decarbonization, emphasizing the importance of low-carbon alternatives like district heating with renewable sources. Electrification with renewables and fuel-switching emerges as crucial for achieving building decarbonization. The study offers valuable insights into navigating energy challenges amidst the war and outlines a pathway for Ukraine’s sustainable energy future.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

CO 2 Transport Infrastructure Outlook in the United States

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) represents one of the most important methods to mitigate anthropogenic carbon emissions at a large scale, playing a key role in meeting climate change targets (Bui et al., 2018) and for net-zero CO 2 by 2050 scenarios in the United States (Browning et al., 2023). This technology involves capturing CO 2 emissions from industrial processes, transporting them via pipelines, trucks, rails, or ships, and ultimately storing them in underground geological sites, such as saline aquifers or depleted oil reservoirs. Thus, to encourage carbon reduction initiatives, the U.S. Congress enacted the Bipartisan Budget Act in 2018, reforming the 45Q tax credit to benefit operators storing CO 2 in geologic formations (Jones and Sherlock, 2021). Additionally, the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act further expanded these incentives, providing additional support for CCS initiatives (Hackett and Kuehn, 2023). Although numerous studies describe the importance of optimal CO 2 transportation to support the decision-making of CCS projects aligned with the objective of net-zero emissions by 2050 (Abramson and Christensen, 2021; Chen and Pawar, 2023; Greig and Pascale, 2021), further efforts are required to optimize the transport infrastructure for national-scale CCS deployment. Therefore, in this study, we examine three nationwide scenarios with the SimCCS 3.0 tool (Ma et al., 2022, 2023, 2024) along with a novel geospatial splitting approach developed by Velasco-Lozano et al. (Velasco- Lozano et al., 2024a, 2024b). We present optimized pipeline networks that meet the dynamic evolution of annual capture amounts, describing the required total pipeline lengths at each stage as a function of the pipeline diameters. Thus, the cases presented demonstrate the feasibility of CO 2 pipeline infrastructure for large-scale CCS projects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of Ground Source Heat Pump ECMs: Implemented Under DOE ESPC IDIQ Contract

Several federal performance and decarbonization objectives are driving the U.S. government to transition to net-zero emissions across the federal building portfolio. The overarching purpose of this Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP)-Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) work is to support federal facilities in accomplishing the administration’s federal building decarbonization goals. Creating awareness of existing geothermal (or ground-source) heat pump (GHP) systems deployed on federal property, implemented using performance contracts and evaluating the energy and environmental impacts of these systems, this work will assist federal facilities in considering inclusion of GHP technology energy conservation measures (ECMs) in future performance contracting project awards. This report summarizes analyses of data from GHP ECMs installed under the DOE ESPC IDIQ contract across various climate areas and geographic locations, agencies, and building use types. Through the analysis of proposed GHP ECMs and understanding key metrics on implemented GHP systems in a variety of applications, FEMP and GTO can further support federal agencies in meeting decarbonization and net-zero building goals by evaluating and incorporating GHP systems into performance contracts and communicate the benefits of this technology.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cost-Benefit Analysis For Indonesia Building Sector: Whole-Building Cooling Solutions

The Net Zero World (NZW) Initiative Collaborative Work Program with the Government of Indonesia (GoI) includes technical assistance and investment mobilization facilitation to accelerate deployment of energy efficiency technologies and solutions for the building sector. A February 2023 U.S.–Indonesia Joint Workshop on Decarbonizing the Building Sector yielded a NZW Indonesia Building Decarbonization Working Group (NZW IBDWG) with four sub-working groups (SWG): SWG-A National Center, SWG-B Capacity Building, SWG-C Investment and Financing, and SWG-D Pilot Projects. Technical analysis of whole-building cooling solutions for tropical climates of Indonesia was conducted by SWG-A to quantify energy savings, carbon dioxide reductions, and comfort improvements offered by 12 passive or low-energy cooling strategies: ceiling fans with and without thermostat setbacks; cool roofs; cool walls; exterior awnings; exterior shades; interior shades; insulated roofs; insulated walls; low-e windows; solar window films; and natural ventilation. Leveraging the results from SWG-A, cost-benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted by SWG-C to assess the consumer and national costs and impacts associated with these 12 cooling solutions. The evaluation involved estimating life-cycle costs (LCC), payback period (PBP), net present values (NPV), annual electricity burden change for low-income households, and reduced national annual power-sector generation demand by 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2060. This evaluation can help guide Indonesia’s Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) investments in policies and programs to advance research, development, deployment, and commercial adoption (RDDCA) of efficient residential building sector cooling technologies and solutions in Indonesia. Four key energy conservation measures (ECM) have been identified to reduce air-conditioning (AC) energy demand in single-family housing in Indonesia: ceiling fan with temperature setback (to 28.1 °Celcius from 25 °C); insulated walls; insulated roof; and cool roof. This study found that low-income households with AC installations in Indonesia currently face a high energy cost burden of approximately 10%. However, by implementing a ceiling fan with temperature setback, this burden could decrease to 2.5% today and further reduce to 1.3% by the year 2060. The PBP for a ceiling fan with temperature setback is one year, indicating one of the lowest LCC and best NPV. In the planned upcoming phase of CBA, a series of building cooling improvement scenarios can be further defined, incorporating more than one ECM in combination with socio-economic factors evaluated in the initial CBA phase. Additionally, the analysis of ECM effects in multifamily housing can be expanded. This broader national analysis aims to encompass a holistic and comprehensive system-level perspective, including factors such as avoided power sector infrastructure investments, domestic job creation, domestic manufacturing job creation, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Transforming US agriculture for carbon removal with enhanced weathering

Abstract Enhanced weathering (EW) with agriculture uses crushed silicate rocks to drive carbon dioxide removal (CDR) 1,2 . If widely adopted on farmlands, it could help achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 2–4 . Here we show, with a detailed US state-specific carbon cycle analysis constrained by resource provision, that EW deployed on agricultural land could sequester 0.16–0.30 GtCO 2 yr −1 by 2050, rising to 0.25–0.49 GtCO 2 yr −1 by 2070. Geochemical assessment of rivers and oceans suggests effective transport of dissolved products from EW from soils, offering CDR on intergenerational timescales. Our analysis further indicates that EW may temporarily help lower ground-level ozone and concentrations of secondary aerosols in agricultural regions. Geospatially mapped CDR costs show heterogeneity across the USA, reflecting a combination of cropland distance from basalt source regions, timing of EW deployment and evolving CDR rates. CDR costs are highest in the first two decades before declining to about US$100–150 tCO 2 −1 by 2050, including for states that contribute most to total national CDR. Although EW cannot be a substitute for emission reductions, our assessment strengthens the case for EW as an overlooked practical innovation for helping the USA meet net-zero 2050 goals 5,6 . Public awareness of EW and equity impacts of EW deployment across the USA require further exploration 7,8 and we note that mobilizing an EW industry at the necessary scale could take decades.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data for Creating Yellow Seed Camelina sativa with Enhanced Oil Accumulation by CRISPR-Mediated Disruption of Transparent Testa 8

Camelina ( Camelina sativa L.), a hexaploid member of the Brassicaceae family, is an emerging oilseed crop being developed to meet the increasing demand for plant oils as biofuel feedstocks. In other Brassicas, high oil content can be associated with a yellow seed phenotype, which is unknown for camelina. We sought to create yellow seed camelina using CRISPR/Cas9 technology to disrupt its Transparent Testa 8 (TT8) transcription factor genes and to evaluate the resulting seed phenotype. We identified three TT8 genes, one in each of the three camelina subgenomes, and obtained independent CsTT8 lines containing frameshift edits. Disruption of TT8 caused seed coat colour to change from brown to yellow reflecting their reduced flavonoid accumulation of up to 44%, and the loss of a well-organized seed coat mucilage layer. Transcriptomic analysis of CsTT8-edited seeds revealed significantly increased expression of the lipid-related transcription factors LEC1, LEC2, FUS3, and WRI1 and their downstream fatty acid synthesis-related targets. These changes caused metabolic remodelling with increased fatty acid synthesis rates and corresponding increases in total fatty acid (TFA) accumulation from 32.4% to as high as 38.0% of seed weight, and TAG yield by more than 21% without significant changes in starch or protein levels compared to parental line. These data highlight the effectiveness of CRISPR in creating novel enhanced-oil germplasm in camelina. The resulting lines may directly contribute to future net-zero carbon energy production or be combined with other traits to produce desired lipid-derived bioproducts at high yields.

Biofuels↗

NASA NTRS2012

Experimental Studies of Low-Pressure Turbine Flows and Flow Control. Streamwise Pressure Profiles and Velocity Profiles

This report summarizes research performed in support of the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) Low-Pressure Turbine (LPT) Flow Physics Program. The work was performed experimentally at the U.S. Naval Academy faculties. The geometry corresponded to "Pak B" LPT airfoil. The test section simulated LPT flow in a passage. Three experimental studies were performed: (a) Boundary layer measurements for ten baseline cases under high and low freestream turbulence conditions at five Reynolds numbers of 25,000, 50,000, 100,000, 200,000, and 300,000, based on passage exit velocity and suction surface wetted length; (b) Passive flow control studies with three thicknesses of two-dimensional bars, and two heights of three-dimensional circular cylinders with different spanwise separations, at same flow conditions as the 10 baseline cases; (c) Active flow control with oscillating synthetic (zero net mass flow) vortex generator jets, for one case with low freestream turbulence and a low Reynolds number of 25,000. The Passive flow control was successful at controlling the separation problem at low Reynolds numbers, with varying degrees of success from case to case and varying levels of impact at higher Reynolds numbers. The active flow control successfully eliminated the large separation problem for the low Reynolds number case. Very detailed data was acquired using hot-wire anemometry, including single and two velocity components, integral boundary layer quantities, turbulence statistics and spectra, turbulent shear stresses and their spectra, and intermittency, documenting transition, separation and reattachment. Models were constructed to correlate the results. The report includes a summary of the work performed and reprints of the publications describing the various studies.This report summarizes research performed in support of the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) Low-Pressure Turbine (LPT) Flow Physics Program. The work was performed experimentally at the U.S. Naval Academy faculties. The geometry corresponded to "Pak B" LPT airfoil. The test section simulated LPT flow in a passage. Three experimental studies were performed: (a) Boundary layer measurements for ten baseline cases under high and low freestream turbulence conditions at five Reynolds numbers of 25,000, 50,000, 100,000, 200,000, and 300,000, based on passage exit velocity and suction surface wetted length; (b) Passive flow control studies with three thicknesses of two-dimensional bars, and two heights of three-dimensional circular cylinders with different spanwise separations, at same flow conditions as the 10 baseline cases; (c) Active flow control with oscillating synthetic (zero net mass flow) vortex generator jets, for one case with low freestream turbulence and a low Reynolds number of 25,000. The Passive flow control was successful at controlling the separation problem at low Reynolds numbers, with varying degrees of success from case to case and varying levels of impact at higher Reynolds numbers. The active flow control successfully eliminated the large separation problem for the low Reynolds number case. Very detailed data was acquired using hot-wire anemometry, including single and two velocity components, integral boundary layer quantities, turbulence statistics and spectra, turbulent shear stresses and their spectra, and intermittency, documenting transition, separation and reattachment. Models were constructed to correlate the results. The report includes a summary of the work performed and reprints of the publications describing the various studies. The folders in this supplement contain processed data in ASCII format. Streamwise pressure profiles and velocity profiles are included. The velocity profiles were acquired using single sensor and cross sensor hot-wire probes which were traversed from the wall to the freestream at various streamwise locations. In some of the flow control cases (3D Trips and Jets) profiles were acquired at multiple spanwise locations.

Volino, Ralph↗

DOE OSTI2026

Memorial Pools Energy Efficiency Retrofits

The National September 11 Memorial & Museum completed a retrofit of the submergible LED lighting fixtures in its North and South Memorial Pools, located at the World Trade Center site in New York City. The two one-acre pools are illuminated nightly by custom LED fixtures set into their base, and the original lights — in place since 2011 — had begun reaching the end of their useful life, leaving sections of the pools dim or dark. Rather than fully replacing the fixtures, the project team worked with the original manufacturer, Acuity Brands, to retrofit and reuse existing components across all eight pool walls (34 fixtures per wall), reducing cost and waste. Fixtures were shipped in custom crates to Minnesota for retrofitting, then reinstalled onsite by Memorial & Museum staff and contractor ABM. The team addressed two key technical challenges during the project: early leakage in retrofitted fixtures, resolved by introducing vacuum-sealing and nitrogen-fill testing before shipment; and chord damage during transit, resolved with custom-designed shipping crates. All eight pool walls were successfully retrofitted and reinstalled by August 27, 2025, ahead of the 25th anniversary of the September 11, 2001 attacks. Sitewide electrical consumption in September 2025 reflected an approximate 7% reduction, contributing to the institution's broader net-zero and LEED Gold sustainability goals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Provincial-scale assessment of direct air capture to meet China’s climate neutrality goal under limited bioenergy supply

China has large, estimated potential for direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) but its deployment locations and impacts at the subnational scale remain unclear. This is largely because higher spatial resolution studies on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in China have focused mainly on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. This study uses a spatially detailed integrated energy-economy-climate model to evaluate DACCS for 31 provinces in China as the country pursues its goal of climate neutrality by 2060. We find that DACCS could expand China’s negative emissions capacity, particularly under sustainability-minded limits on bioenergy supply that are informed by bottom-up studies. But providing low-carbon electricity for multiple GtCO 2 yr -1 DACCS may require over 600 GW of additional wind and solar capacity nationwide and comprise up to 30% of electricity demand in China’s northern provinces. Investment requirements for DACCS range from 330 to 530 billion dollars by 2060 but could be repaid manyfold in the form of avoided mitigation costs, which DACCS deployment could reduce by up to $6 trillion over the same period. Enhanced efforts to lower residual CO 2 emissions that must be offset with CDR under a net-zero paradigm reduce but do not eliminate the use of DACCS for mitigation. For decision-makers and the energy-economy models guiding them, our results highlight the value of expanding beyond the current reliance on biomass for negative emissions in China.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

The impact of regional resources and technology availability on carbon dioxide removal potential in the United States

To achieve net zero carbon emissions by mid-century, the United States may need to rely on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to offset emissions from difficult-to-decarbonize sectors and/or shortfalls in near-term mitigation efforts. CDR can be delivered using many approaches with different requirements for land, water, geologic carbon storage capacity, energy, and other resources. The availability of these resources varies by region in the U.S. suggesting that CDR deployment will be uneven across the country. Using the global change analysis model for the United States (GCAM-USA), we modeled six classes of CDR and explored their potential using four scenarios: a scenario where all the CDR pathways are available (Full Portfolio), a scenario with restricted carbon capture and storage (Low CCS), a scenario where the availability of bio-based CDR options is limited (Low Bio), and a scenario with constraints on enhanced rock weathering (ERW) capabilities (Low ERW). We find that by employing a diverse set of CDR approaches, the U.S. could remove between 1 and 1.9 GtCO 2 /yr by midcentury. In the Full Portfolio scenario, direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) predominates, delivering approximately 50% of CO 2 removal, with bioenergy with carbon capture and storage contributing 25%, and ERW delivering 11.5%. Texas and the agricultural Midwest lead in CDR deployment due to their abundant agricultural land and geological storage availability. In the Low CCS scenario, reliance on DACCS decreases, easing pressure on energy systems but increasing pressure on the land. In all cases CDR deployment was found to drive important impacts on energy, land, or materials supply chains (to supply ERW, for example) and these effects were generally more pronounced when fewer CDR technologies were available.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) for Prospective Impact Analysis of Novel Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 Degrees Celsius or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics. The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Additionally we compare our results by linking two other prospective models with LiAISON - GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) and ReEDS (Regional Energy Deployment System) to analyze the effect of changing background scenarios using varying predictions in life cycle analysis.

decarbonizing↗