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74 records · Page 5

Cancer Risk in Astronauts: A Constellation of Uncommon Consequences

Excess cancers resulting from external radiation exposures have been noted since the early 1950s, when a rise in leukemia rates was first reported in young atomic bomb survivors [1]. Further studies in atomic bomb survivors, cancer patients treated with radiotherapy, and nuclear power plant workers have confirmed that radiation exposure increases the risk of not only leukemia, but also a wide array of solid cancers [2,3]. NASA has long been aware of this risk and limits astronauts' risk of exposure-induced death (REID) from cancer by specifying permissible mission durations (PMD) for astronauts on an individual basis. While cancer is present among astronauts, current data does not suggest any excess of known radiation-induced cancers relative to a comparable population of U.S. adults; however, very uncommon cancers have been diagnosed in astronauts including nasopharyngeal cancer, lymphoma of the brain, and acral myxoinflammatory fibroblastic sarcoma. In order to study cancer risk in astronauts, a number of obstacles must be overcome. Firstly, several factors make the astronaut cohort considerably different from the cohorts that have previously been studied for effects resulting from radiation exposure. The high rate of accidents and the much healthier lifestyle of astronauts compared to the U.S. population make finding a suitable comparison population a problematic task. Space radiation differs substantially from terrestrial radiation exposures studied in the past; therefore, analyses of galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) in animal models must be conducted and correctly applied to the human experience. Secondly, a large enough population of exposed astronauts must exist in order to obtain the data necessary to see any potential statistically significant differences between the astronauts and the control population. Thirdly, confounders and effect modifiers, such as smoking, diet, and other space stressors, must be correctly identified and controlled for in those analyses. In order to begin work assessing the astronaut population, the earliest groups of astronauts (selection groups 1-7) provide a unique model. These astronauts were relatively homogenous, white males whose lifestyle characteristics were similar to an average U.S. citizen of the same birth cohort. This work reviews radiation exposure levels, age, and causes of mortality among these early NASA astronauts and discusses the benefits and limitations of assessing such a cohort for radiation-induced cancer risk.

Milder, Caitlin M.↗

Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

PRA methodology is one of the probabilistic analysis methods that NASA brought from the nuclear industry to assess the risk of LOM, LOV and LOC for launch vehicles. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment that uses a combination of fault trees, event trees, event sequence diagrams, and probability and statistical data to analyze the risk of a system, a process, or an activity. It is a process designed to answer three basic questions: What can go wrong? How likely is it? What is the severity of the degradation? Since 1986, NASA, along with industry partners, has conducted a number of PRA studies to predict the overall launch vehicles risks. Planning Research Corporation conducted the first of these studies in 1988. In 1995, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) conducted a comprehensive PRA study. In July 1996, NASA conducted a two-year study (October 1996 - September 1998) to develop a model that provided the overall Space Shuttle risk and estimates of risk changes due to proposed Space Shuttle upgrades. After the Columbia accident, NASA conducted a PRA on the Shuttle External Tank (ET) foam. This study was the most focused and extensive risk assessment that NASA has conducted in recent years. It used a dynamic, physics-based, integrated system analysis approach to understand the integrated system risk due to ET foam loss in flight. Most recently, a PRA for Ares I launch vehicle has been performed in support of the Constellation program. Reliability, on the other hand, addresses the loss of functions. In a broader sense, reliability engineering is a discipline that involves the application of engineering principles to the design and processing of products, both hardware and software, for meeting product reliability requirements or goals. It is a very broad design-support discipline. It has important interfaces with many other engineering disciplines. Reliability as a figure of merit (i.e. the metric) is the probability that an item will perform its intended function(s) for a specified mission profile. In general, the reliability metric can be calculated through the analyses using reliability demonstration and reliability prediction methodologies. Reliability analysis is very critical for understanding component failure mechanisms and in identifying reliability critical design and process drivers. The following sections discuss the PRA process and reliability engineering in detail and provide an application where reliability analysis and PRA were jointly used in a complementary manner to support a Space Shuttle flight risk assessment.

Safie, Fayssal M.↗