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DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Severe Weather Prediction With Microwave All‐Sky Radiance Assimilation: The 10 August 2020 Midwest Derecho

Abstract In this study, we assimilated microwave (MW) all‐sky radiances from low‐Earth‐orbiting satellites and examined their impact on the analyses and forecasts of weather hazards associated with the 10 August 2020 Midwest derecho. Compared with the baseline that assimilated conventional surface and upper‐air observations and infrared (IR) all‐sky radiances from geostationary satellites, the addition of MW all‐sky radiances improved the analyzed and forecasted convection‐stratiform structures of the derecho. Results show that MW all‐sky radiances provided additional information, compared with IR radiances, on hydrometeors within the storm, leading to improved forecasts out to 2 hr with quantitatively more accurate surface gusts. This is the first study to assimilate MW all‐sky radiances for a severe weather event using a convection‐permitting numerical weather prediction model (our model resembles NOAA's High‐Resolution Rapid Refresh), and the results suggest promising avenues for improving severe weather forecasts worldwide in the future.

Zhang, Yunji↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving Prediction of Surface Solar Irradiance Variability by Integrating Observed Cloud Characteristics and Machine Learning

A 5-year, 1-minute resolution observational dataset of clouds and solar radiation was produced that includes two metrics of the variability in surface solar irradiance due to cloud type and fractional sky cover. Multiple regression models were trained to fit observations of surface solar irradiance variability from those two cloud property predictors. We found that ensemble tree-based methods, Random Forest and Gradient Boosting Machine, have the least overfitting issues and showed the best performance with an R2 of 0.42. While the observational data trained in this study was only from one site, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in Oklahoma, initial comparisons of the seasonality of the statistics suggest that these results are relatively weather regime independent; the generality of such a finding across sites will be tested in future work. The observational data and developed machine learning model are being used to create a numerical weather prediction model parameterization to enable day-ahead solar variability prediction in a computationally efficient way. This is a first step towards creating a new paradigm of predicting day-ahead variability with the potential to provide a new tool to improve grid operation, planning, and resilience.

Riihimaki, Laura↗
DOE OSTI2022

“Gray Zone” Simulations Using a Three-Dimensional Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

Abstract Generating accurate weather forecasts of planetary boundary layer (PBL) properties is challenging in many geographical regions, oftentimes due to complex topography or horizontal variability in, for example, land characteristics. While recent advances in high-performance computing platforms have led to an increase in the spatial resolution of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, the horizontal gridcell spacing (Δ x ) of many regional-scale NWP models currently fall within or are beginning to approach the gray zone (i.e., Δ x ≈ 100–1000 m). At these gridcell spacings, three-dimensional (3D) effects are important, as the most energetic turbulent eddies are neither fully parameterized (as in traditional mesoscale simulations) nor fully resolved [as in traditional large-eddy simulations (LES)]. In light of this modeling challenge, we have implemented a 3D PBL parameterization for high-resolution mesoscale simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. The PBL scheme, which is based on the algebraic model developed by Mellor and Yamada, accounts for the 3D effects of turbulence by calculating explicitly the momentum, heat, and moisture flux divergences in addition to the turbulent kinetic energy. In this study, we present results from idealized simulations in the gray zone that illustrate the benefit of using a fully consistent turbulence closure framework under convective conditions. While the 3D PBL scheme reproduces the evolution of convective features more appropriately than the traditional 1D PBL scheme, we highlight the need to improve the turbulent length scale formulation. Significance Statement The spatial resolution of weather models continues to increase at a rapid rate in accordance with the enhancement of computing power. As a result, smaller-scale atmospheric features become more explicitly resolved. However, most numerical models still ignore the impact of horizontal weather variations on boundary layer flows, which becomes more important at these smaller spatial scales. To address this issue, we have implemented a new modeling approach, using fundamental principles, which accounts for horizontal variability. Our results show that including three-dimensional effects of turbulence is necessary to achieve realistic boundary layer characteristics. This novel technique may be useful for many applications including complex terrain flows, pollutant dispersion, and surface–atmosphere interaction studies.

Juliano, Timothy W.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Moving beyond the Aerosol Climatology of WRF-Solar: A Case Study over the North China Plain

Numerical weather prediction (NWP), when accessible, is a crucial input to short-term solar power forecasting. WRF-Solar, the first NWP model specifically designed for solar energy applications, has shown promising predictive capability. Nevertheless, few attempts have been made to investigate its performance under high aerosol loading, which attenuates incoming radiation significantly. The North China Plain is a polluted region due to industrialization, which constitutes a proper testbed for such investigation. Here, in this paper, aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE) on three surface shortwave radiation components (i.e., global, beam, and diffuse) during five heavy pollution episodes is studied within the WRF-Solar framework. Results show that WRF-Solar overestimates instantaneous beam radiation up to 795.3 W m -2 when the aerosol DRE is not considered. Although such overestimation can be partially offset by an underestimation of the diffuse radiation of about 194.5 W m -2 , the overestimation of the global radiation still reaches 160.2 W m -2 . This undesirable bias can be reduced when WRF-Solar is powered by Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) aerosol forecasts, which then translates to accuracy improvements in photovoltaic (PV) power forecasts. This work also compares the forecast performance of the CAMS-powered WRF-Solar with that of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model. Under high aerosol loading conditions, the irradiance forecast accuracy generated by WRF-Solar increased by 53.2% and the PV power forecast accuracy increased by 6.8%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

An ensemble data assimilation modeling system for operational outdoor microalgae growth forecasting

Microalgae have received increasing attention as a potential feedstock for biofuel or biobased products. Forecasting the microalgae growth is beneficial for managers in planning pond operations and harvesting decisions. This study proposed a biomass forecasting system comprised of the Huesemann Algae Biomass Growth Model (BGM), the Modular Aquatic Simulation System in Two Dimensions (MASS2), ensemble data assimilation (DA), and numerical weather prediction Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) ensemble meteorological forecasts. The novelty of this study is to seek the use of ensemble DA to improve both BGM and MASS2 model initial conditions with the assimilation of biomass and water temperature measurements and consequently improve short-term biomass forecasting skills. This study introduces the theory behind the proposed integrated biomass forecasting system, with an application undertaken in pseudo-real-time in three outdoor ponds cultured with Chlorella sorokiniana in Delhi, California, United States. Results from all three case studies demonstrate that the biomass forecasting system improved the short-term (i.e., 7-day) biomass forecasting skills by about 60% on average, comparing to forecasts without using the ensemble DA method. Given the satisfactory performances achieved in this study, it is probable that the integrated BGM-MASS2-DA forecasting system can be used operationally to inform managers in making pond operation and harvesting planning decisions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Biomass Productivity by Forecast‐Informed Pond Operations

ABSTRACT Microalgal cultivation for biofuels and proteins holds significant promise but faces challenges in achieving economically viable biomass productivity under variable environmental conditions. This study introduces a forecast‐informed pond operation (FIPO) system that uses numerical weather prediction (NWP) ensemble forecasts and the biomass assessment tool (BAT) to optimize daily dilution rates for enhanced biomass production. In contrast to the current practice, where fixed dilution rates are based on operator experience, the FIPO system determines the optimal dilution rate based on future weather forecasts and biomass growth conditions. Our experiments validate the effectiveness of FIPO in both short‐ and long‐term growth scenarios. In short‐term experiments, FIPO increased biomass production by 21.3% compared to batch growth and 7.4% over fixed dilution (60% every 3 days) operations. The NWP forecast‐informed operations achieved biomass production nearly identical to that using perfect weather forecasts, highlighting the accuracy of current NWP forecasts for guiding pond operations. In long‐term experiments, FIPO resulted in biomass production increases of 13.3% and 17.8% compared to two fixed dilution rates (60% every 3 days and 20% daily). These findings underscore the viability of using NWP forecasts to optimize microalgal cultivation systems. By adjusting daily dilution rates in response to forecasted weather, operators can achieve higher biomass yields and mitigate risks associated with environmental variability. This study provides a foundation for future research and practical applications in commercial‐scale microalgal production.

Yan, Hongxiang [Energy and Environment Directorate↗
DOE OSTI2021

Resolved gravity waves in the tropical stratosphere: Impact of horizontal resolution and deep convection parametrization

Convectively generated gravity waves (CGGWs) are important for numerical weather prediction due to their effect on the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the stratosphere. Here, using global ECMWF IFS simulations at TCo7999 (or 1.25 km), TCo2559 (or 3.9 km) and TCo1279 (or 7.8 km) horizontal resolutions, sensitivity of resolved CGGWs to the horizontal resolution and to the explicit versus parametrized representation of deep convection is elucidated during the westerly shear phase of the QBO. Parametrized deep convection is found to inhibit CGGWs, resulting in a twofold reduction in CGGW forcing. When deep convection is explicitly resolved, the total CGGW forcing is almost unchanged across the horizontal resolutions. However, the contribution of long and mesoscale CGGWs (with horizontal wavelengths 100 km ≤ $λ_h$ < $1,900$ km) to the total CGGW forcing decreases and the contribution of smaller-scale CGGWs (with $λ_h$ < $100$ km) increases as the horizontal resolution increases. At the maximum CGGW forcing altitude, at TCo7999 resolution 43% of the total CGGW forcing is due to long and mesoscale waves, whereas at TCo2559 and TCo1279 resolutions their contribution is 70% and 90%, respectively. While CGGW forcing from long and mesoscale waves is similar at TCo7999 resolution with explicit deep convection and at TCo1279 resolution with parametrized deep convection, CGGW forcing from these waves is artificially enhanced at TCo1279 and TCo2559 resolutions with explicit deep convection. This is due to the explicit deep convection being too strong and having too much variance for 100 km ≤ $λ_h$ < $1,900$ km. Therefore, parametrizations of deep convection and CGGWs (to account for forcing from waves with $λ_h$ < $100$ km) are required even at TCo2559 resolution. Additionally, resolved CGGW forcing at TCo7999 resolution is examined for the easterly shear phase of the QBO; similar to the westerly shear phase, the smaller-scale waves contribute 55% to the total CGGW forcing at the maximum CGGW forcing altitude.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Diurnal cycle of precipitation over the tropics and central United States: intercomparison of general circulation models

Diurnal precipitation is a fundamental mode of variability that climate models have difficulty in accurately simulating. Here, in this work, the diurnal cycle of precipitation (DCP) in participating climate models from the Global Energy and Water Exchanges' DCP project is evaluated over the tropics and central United States. Common model biases such as excessive precipitation over the tropics, too frequent light-to-moderate rain, and the failure to capture propagating convection in the central United States still exist. Over the central United States, the issues of too weak rainfall intensity in climate runs is well improved in their hindcast runs with initial conditions from numerical weather prediction analyses. But the improvement is minimal over the central Amazon. Incorporating the role of the large-scale environment in convective triggering processes helps resolve the phase-locking issue in many models where precipitation often incorrectly peaks near noon due to maximum insolation over land. Allowing air parcels to be lifted above the boundary layer improves the simulation of nocturnal precipitation which is often associated with the propagation of mesoscale systems. Including convective memory in cumulus parameterizations acts to suppress light-to-moderate rain and promote intense rainfall; however, it also weakens the diurnal variability. Simply increasing model resolution (with cumulus parameterizations still used) cannot fully resolve the biases of low-resolution climate models in DCP. The hierarchy modeling framework from this study is useful for identifying the missing physics in models and testing new development of model convective processes over different convective regimes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The use of idealised experiments in testing a new convective parametrization: Performance of CoMorph-A

CoMorph is a new mass-flux convection parametrization under development at the Met Office designed for use within the Unified Model and its successor model, LFRic. Use of a three-dimensional idealised model enables controlled tests of the performance of the scheme across different regimes. This includes the interaction between the physical parametrizations and the resolved dynamics, allowing study of the emergent organisation of convection on the resolved scale. A selection of well-known cases is revisited here, with the purpose of documenting the extent to which CoMorph captures a range of important, but challenging, behaviour such as the diurnal cycle and sensitivity to tropospheric moisture. Simulations using CoMorph-A, a new physics package, that has been demonstrated to perform well at numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate scales, are compared against the current global atmosphere configuration and high-resolution results. In addition to an entirely new convection scheme, the package of changes includes significant changes to the cloud, microphysics, and boundary-layer parametrizations. Recognising that CoMorph-A is the first version of a scheme that will continue to be substantially developed and to obtain good performance, compromises in tuning have had to be made. These idealised tests therefore show what works well in this configuration, and what areas will require further work. As such, it is quite a demanding testbed and could be viewed as some of the equipment required for a “convective playground”.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Case Study of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Applied to the Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Field Experiment. Part III: Boundary-Layer Parametrizations

Numerical weather prediction is often used to supply the mean wind and turbulence fields for atmospheric transport and dispersion plume models as they provide dense geographic coverage in comparison to typically sparse monitoring networks. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model 4.0 was run over the month-long period of the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign conducted in Oklahoma City. We compare three different simulations in their ability to reproduce the observations, each using a different boundary-layer parametrization. Specifically, we examine the Mellor–Yamada–Janjic (MYJ), Yonsei University (YSU), and Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) boundary-layer parametrizations. All three predict the wind speed well during the day but overpredict it at night. The MYNN parametrization is better than MYJ at predicting the daytime turbulence in the surface layer, but both underpredict the nocturnal turbulence. Additionally, the MYJ parametrization is best at predicting the reciprocal Obukhov length, while MYNN and YSU both significantly overpredict thermal stability. Reconstructing the reciprocal Obukhov length from other simulated parameters produces more accurate values for both parametrizations. All three models overpredict the boundary-layer height, particularly under convective conditions. The MYJ parametrization overestimates boundary-layer height the most, while YSU and MYNN have comparable performance with MYNN having an advantage in predicting the stable boundary-layer height. Several days were found where the WRF simulations predict significant deviations from the prevailing diurnal pattern in wind direction, which are not found in the observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Package of Momentum and Heat Transfer Coefficients for the Stable Surface Layer Extended by New Coefficients over Sea Ice

The bulk transfer coefficients of momentum, heat, and humidity belong to the main ingredients of numerical weather prediction and climate models. They are needed for the calculation of turbulent fluxes in the surface layer and often rely on the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory requiring universal stability functions. The problem of a derivation of transfer coefficients based on different stability functions has been considered by many researchers over the years but it remains to this day. In this work, dedicated to the memory of S.S. Zilitinkevich, we also address this task, and obtain transfer coefficients from three pairs of theoretically derived stability functions suggested by Zilitinkevich and co-authors for stable conditions. Additionally, we construct non-iterative parametrizations of these transfer coefficients based on earlier work. Results are compared with state-of-the-art coefficients for land, ocean, and sea ice. The combined parametrizations form a package in a universal framework relying on a semi-analytical solution of the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory equations. A comparison with data of the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean campaign (SHEBA) over sea ice reveals large differences between the coefficients for land conditions and the measurements over sea ice. However, two schemes of Zilitinkevich and co-authors show, after slight modification, good agreement with SHEBA although they had not been especially developed for sea ice. One pair of the modified transfer coefficients is superior and is compatible to earlier SHEBA-based parametrizations. Finally, an algorithm for practical use of all transfer coefficients in climate models is given.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Potential impacts of climate change on wind and solar electricity generation in Texas

Wind and solar energy sources are climate and weather dependent, therefore susceptible to a changing climate. in this paper, we quantify the impacts of climate change on wind and solar electricity generation under high concentrations of greenhouse gases in Texas. We employ mid-twenty-first century climate projections and a high-resolution numerical weather prediction model to generate weather variables in the future and produce wind and solar generation time series. We find that mid-twenty-first century projections based on five global climate models agree on the multiyear average increases across Texas in direct normal irradiance, global horizontal irradiance, surface air temperature, and 100-m wind speed of up to 5%, 4%, 10%, and 1%, respectively. These changes lead to multiyear average relative changes across Texas of -0.6 to + 2.5% and of + 1.3 to + 3.5% in solar and wind capacity factors, respectively, with significant regional, seasonal, and diurnal differences. Areas with low solar resource show an increase in solar capacity factors but reductions in wind capacity factors. Areas with high solar resource show reductions in solar capacity factors. The spatial and temporal differences in our results highlight the importance of using high-resolution data sets to study the potential impacts of climate change on wind and solar power.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advances in solar forecasting: Computer vision with deep learning

Renewable energy forecasting is crucial for integrating variable energy sources into the grid. It allows power systems to address the intermittency of the energy supply at different spatiotemporal scales. To anticipate the future impact of cloud displacements on the energy generated by solar facilities, conventional modeling methods rely on numerical weather prediction or physical models, which have difficulties in assimilating cloud information and learning systematic biases. Augmenting computer vision with machine learning overcomes some of these limitations by fusing real-time cloud cover observations with surface measurements acquired from multiple sources. This Review summarizes recent progress in solar forecasting from multisensor Earth observations with a focus on deep learning, which provides the necessary theoretical framework to develop architectures capable of extracting relevant information from data generated by ground-level sky cameras, satellites, weather stations, and sensor networks. Overall, machine learning has the potential to significantly improve the accuracy and robustness of solar energy meteorology; however, more research is necessary to realize this potential and address its limitations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Calibration of cloud and aerosol related parameters for solar irradiance forecasts in WRF-solar

Model parameters are a major source of uncertainty in numerical weather prediction. Recently, the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Solar extensions (WRF-Solar) has been upgraded by enhancing the treatment of sub-grid scale cloud and aerosols with augmentations of a sub-grid scale cloud scheme (CLD3) and an upgraded aerosol-aware Thompson-Eidhammer scheme (TE14). However, the value of model parameters associated with these parameterizations are assigned based on limited measurements or theoretical calculations. Calibrating the most sensitive parameters has the potential to improve solar irradiance predictions. Here, we adopted a multiobjective surrogate-based optimization (SBO) framework to calibrate nine parameters used in CLD3 and TE14 that lead to the largest sensitivity in simulated irradiance. The normalized mean-absolute-error (NMAE) of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) are minimized by calibrating WRF-Solar over two regions including the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and Central California, in order to focus on parameter calibration under cloudy conditions with different aerosol loading. The results show that generalized linear model (GLM)-based surrogate models approximate physical models well, particularly when the third order and three-way interaction terms are considered. The SBO framework efficiently searches the parameter space for optimal solutions with less computational costs than directly calibrating the physical model. We first calibrate CLD3 parameters over the less-polluted SGP region. Optimized CLD3 parameters alone result in NMAE reduction by 14% for the site-mean and up to 33% for individual cases over the SGP region. With further calibration of TE14 parameters over the Central California during active fire periods, the optimized parameters lead to over 20% reductions of NMAE. Our investigation reveals, however, that optimizing TE14 has a limited impact on irradiance simulations under less-polluted conditions in the SGP.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating WRF-Solar EPS cloud mask forecast using the NSRDB

Improving the accuracy of day-ahead solar forecasts using numerical weather prediction models requires improving the forecasting of cloud occurrence and properties. Validating cloud forecasts is challenging because this requires evaluating different types of clouds over a wide variety of regions. This study analyzes the cloud occurrence (or cloud mask) over the contiguous United States (CONUS), predicted by the Weather Research and Forecasting-Solar Ensemble Prediction System (WRF-Solar EPS), to identify the strengths and limitations of the model in reproducing cloud fields. To enable the in-depth analysis of cloud mask forecasts covering CONUS, we use satellite observations from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). Two evaluation methods are implemented to consider all clouds and partially removed clouds from the 2-km NSRDB in evaluating the 9-km WRF-Solar EPS cloud mask. Cloud detection metrics as well as the frequency of cloud occurrence are used to quantify the monthly performance of WRF-Solar EPS. Mismatched cloud frequency (MCF) is used to assess the model's capability to predict different types of clouds, which are classified using three levels of cloud optical depth (COD) and cloud top height (CTH). The day-ahead forecasts covering the full year of 2018 demonstrate that WRF-Solar EPS produces MCFs ranging from 27%-46%, 13%-34%, and 8%-19% for thin, mid-thickness, and thick clouds, respectively. For three CTH levels, the model shows MCFs ranging from 19%-46%, 16%-33%, and 8%-27% for low-level, middle-level, and high-level clouds, respectively. This comprehensive characterization of model performance helps identify model weakness and will eventually lead to improvements in cloud and solar radiation forecasting.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using Satellite‐Derived Fire Arrival Times for Coupled Wildfire‐Air Quality Simulations at Regional Scales of the 2020 California Wildfire Season

Abstract Wildfire frequency has increased in the Western US over recent decades, driven by climate change and a legacy of forest management practices. Consequently, human structures, health, and life are increasingly at risk due to wildfires. Furthermore, wildfire smoke presents a growing hazard for regional and national air quality. In response, many scientific tools have been developed to study and forecast wildfire behavior, or test interventions that may mitigate risk. In this study, we present a retrospective analysis of 1 month of the 2020 Northern California wildfire season, when many wildfires with varying environments and behavior impacted regional air quality. We simulated this period using a coupled numerical weather prediction model with online atmospheric chemistry, and compare two approaches to representing smoke emissions: an online fire spread model driven by remotely sensed fire arrival times and a biomass burning emissions inventory. First, we quantify the differences in smoke emissions and timing of fire activity, and characterize the subsequent impact on estimates of smoke emissions. Next, we compare the simulated smoke to surface observations and remotely sensed smoke; we find that despite differences in the simulated smoke surface concentrations, the two models achieve similar levels of accuracy. We present a detailed comparison between the performance and relative strengths of both approaches, and discuss potential refinements that could further improve future simulations of wildfire smoke. Finally, we characterize the interactions between smoke and meteorology during this event, and discuss the implications that increases in regional smoke may have on future meteorological conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Comprehensive Northern Hemisphere Particle Microphysics Data Set From the Precipitation Imaging Package

Microphysical observations of precipitating particles are critical data sources for numerical weather prediction models and remote sensing retrieval algorithms. However, obtaining coherent data sets of particle microphysics is challenging as they are often unindexed, distributed across disparate institutions, and have not undergone a uniform quality control process. This work introduces a unified, comprehensive Northern Hemisphere particle microphysical data set from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration precipitation imaging package (PIP), accessible in a standardized data format and stored in a centralized, public repository. Data is collected from 10 measurement sites spanning 34° latitude (37°N–71°N) over 10 years (2014–2023), which comprise a set of 1,070,000 precipitating minutes. The provided data set includes measurements of a suite of microphysical attributes for both rain and snow, including distributions of particle size, vertical velocity, and effective density, along with higher-order products including an approximation of volume-weighted equivalent particle densities, liquid equivalent snowfall, and rainfall rate estimates. The data underwent a rigorous standardization and quality assurance process to filter out erroneous observations to produce a self-describing, scalable, and achievable data set. Case study analyses demonstrate the capabilities of the data set in identifying physical processes like precipitation phase-changes at high temporal resolution. Bulk precipitation characteristics from a multi-site intercomparison also highlight distinct microphysical properties unique to each location. This curated PIP data set is a robust database of high-quality particle microphysical observations for constraining future precipitation retrieval algorithms, and offers new insights toward better understanding regional and seasonal differences in bulk precipitation characteristics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of Monin‐Obukhov Similarity Theory Wind Profiles in Convective Storm Environments and Cold Pools at the ARM Southern Great Plains Atmospheric Observatory

Monin-Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) is widely used in numerical weather prediction to model surface fluxes of momentum, heat, and water vapor. However, MOST is based on assumptions of steady state and horizontally homogeneous turbulence that can lead to prediction errors in and around convective storms. To understand the nature of these errors, we used wind and eddy covariance flux measurements from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains Atmospheric Observatory to evaluate MOST wind profiles in fair-weather and convective storm environments, specifically those of mesoscale convective systems and ordinary thunderstorms. MOST wind profiles agreed well with observations in fair-weather cases, while in convective storm cases the theory systematically overestimated shear in cold pools after gust front passage. Surface layer stability was found to be important in assessing MOST within convective storm environments. The overestimation of wind shear in cold pools suggests the role of non-local fluxes in transferring momentum downward. We discuss reasons for differences and agreement with past studies, and conclude with recommendations to improve prediction of surface winds and fluxes in convective storm simulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗