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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Panel Session 132: Risk-Informed Approach for Decision Making in WM, D and D and SNF Management: Reasonable Assurance for Safety

Mr. Larry Camper organized a panel of experts to discuss approaches to better make risk-informed decisions in waste management, decommissioning, and the management of Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF). The audience heard the perspectives from four panelists that addressed issues ranging from the technical basis used to make risk-informed decisions to for developing cleanup criteria and promulgating regulations and safety standards both domestically and abroad. A summary of each of the presentations given by the panelists is provided herein. This WMS BOD featured panel focused on the Risk-Informed Approach for Decision Making in WM, D and D and SNF Management and the Reasonable Assurance for Safety. The panelists addressed and discussed with the audience different approaches used for decision-making, summarizing ongoing probabilistic vs. deterministic approaches, including IAEA graded approach, and discussed policies/approaches to achieve reasonable assurance for safety rather than using absolute assurance. Panelists with presentations: Risk-Informed Decision Making - More than a Motto? (Paul Black); NRC Staff Perspective on Risk-Informed Approach and Reasonable Safety Assurance in D and D and LLW (Rateb (Boby) Abu Eid); Risk-Informed Decision-Making and Illustrative National Academies Studies (Charles Ferguson); IAEA's Revised Safety Guidance on Remediation (Michelle Roberts); NDA Radioactive Waste Strategy - A Risk Informed Approach (James McKinney)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2016

Qualitative Evaluation of Human Reliability Analysis Quality

On August, 2001, the Korean government issued a severe accident policy statement. In this policy statement, a safety goal was proposed in a form of quantitative health objective(QHO) such that an additive risk of early fatality and cancer fatality caused by accident or operation of nuclear power plant(NPPs) should not exceed 0.1% of the sum of other accidents and cancer fatality risks resulting from all other causes, respectively. In accordance with the policy statement, probabilistic safety analysis(PSA) for all Korean NPPs was conducted to show each plant satisfies QHO. Given the increasing importance of PSA to assess the level of safety of NPPs, it is crucial that the quality of the PSA results should be assured. Compared to well-established PSA method used for domestic NPPs, there is consensus that human reliability analysis (HRA) has lack of consistency due to the different assumptions and different characteristics of the methods, which could possibly result in low quality of the PSA. To resolve the issues with lack of consistency of the HRA methods, there have been efforts to develop a standardized HRA method in Korea. However, quality of existing Korean HRA should be evaluated before developing a standardized method, since the results can be used for deriving requirements and give feedback and insights for developing the standardized method. In this study, literature review was performed to select an adequate method for evaluating the quality of the HRA, and the quality of the HRA is evaluated. Finally, results and insights of this study are shown in the conclusion. (authors)

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2019

A novel occupancy detection solution using low-power IR-FPA based wireless occupancy sensor

Significant energy savings can be achieved by operating heating, ventilation, and air conditioning control systems with indoor occupancy measurement information. This paper presents a novel plug-and-play occupancy sensing method which will enable temporal minimization of building energy consumption to meet building usage behavior without privacy concerns. The proposed wireless occupancy sensing platform is based on long-wave infra-red (LWIR) focal-plane arrays (FPAs), or thermal imagers, that detect thermal energy rather than visible light. We developed an advanced sensor package consisting of multiple thermal imagers with low-cost optical enhancements to increase field of view and increase sensitivity to occupant detection (filtering building clutter). These imagers can be coupled with radio frequency and ultrasonic-based radar to enhance data collection at key occupant zone boundaries to improve accuracy. Standard filtering and estimation techniques from the image processing and computer vision communities are introduced to overcome the accuracy issues suffered by traditional PIR based sensing, especially when occupants remain relatively still. Accurate low-level counting of individuals can be achieved with minimal impact on privacy. As a result, the proposed occupancy detection method can work as a retrofit to enable real-time understanding of the building operational state and usage behavior. Sensor data obtained from real test building zones was used to test the efficacy of the method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2017

Sunyaev–Zel’Dovich Signal from Quasar Hosts: Implications for Detection of Quasar Feedback

Several analytic and numerical studies have indicated that the interstellar medium of a quasar host galaxy heated by feedback can contribute to a substantial secondary signal in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) through the thermal Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (SZ) effect. Recently, many groups have tried to detect this signal by cross-correlating CMB maps with quasar catalogs. Using a self-similar model for the gas in the intra-cluster medium and a realistic halo occupation distribution (HOD) prescription for quasars, we estimate the level of SZ signal from gravitational heating of quasar hosts. The bias in the host halo signal estimation due to an unconstrained high mass HOD tail and yet unknown redshift dependence of the quasar HOD restricts us from drawing any robust conclusions at low redshift ( z < 1.5) from our analysis. However, at higher redshifts ( z > 2.5), we find an excess signal in recent observations than what is predicted from our model. The excess signal could be potentially generated from additional heating due to quasar feedback.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

HOD-dependent systematics for luminous red galaxies in the DESI 2024 BAO analysis

In this paper, we present the estimation of systematics related to the halo occupation distribution (HOD) modeling in the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) distance measurement of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) 2024 analysis. This paper focuses on the study of HOD systematics for luminous red galaxies (LRG). We consider three different HOD models for LRGs, including the base 5-parameter vanilla model and two extensions to it, that we refer to as baseline and extended models. The baseline model is described by the 5 vanilla HOD parameters, an incompleteness factor and a velocity bias parameter, whereas the extended one also includes a galaxy assembly bias and a satellite profile parameter. We utilize the 25 dark matter simulations available in the AbacusSummit simulation suite at z=0.8 and generate mock catalogs for our different HOD models. To test the impact of the HOD modeling in the position of the BAO peak, we run BAO fits for all these sets of simulations and compare the best-fit BAO-scaling parameters α iso and α AP between every pair of HOD models. Furthermore, we do this for both Fourier and configuration spaces independently, using post-reconstruction measurements. We find a 3.3σ detection of HOD systematic for α AP in configuration space with an amplitude of 0.19%. For the other cases, we did not find a 3σ detection, and we decided to compute a conservative estimation of the systematic using the ensemble of shifts between all pairs of HOD models. By doing this, we quote a systematic with an amplitude of 0.07% in α iso for both Fourier and configuration spaces; and of 0.09% in α AP for Fourier space.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

LandScan mosaic enables high-resolution gridded population estimates with explicit uncertainty

Gridded population datasets represent high-resolution distributions of human occupancy, enabling informed decision-making across a broad range of fields. These data products are valuable for assessing environmental risk, urban development, disaster preparedness and resource allocation—areas where accurate population estimates directly enhance policy effectiveness and optimize resource distribution. Despite the importance of gridded population datasets, traditional population modeling approaches often overlook inherent uncertainties in the estimation process. This limitation can create a false sense of certainty in population estimates, potentially leading to flawed decisions by those who rely on the data. To address this methodological gap, we introduce a probabilistic machine learning modeling framework, LandScan Mosaic, that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into the population modeling process. Our approach systematically quantifies uncertainty in three key modeling parameters of the LandScan HD gridded population dataset: building use types, floor counts, and occupancy rates. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we propagate these uncertainties through the modeling process, yielding probability distributions of population counts in place of deterministic point estimates. We demonstrate the practical application of this framework in Iloilo City, Philippines, using structured decision-making techniques and our probabilistic estimates to identify and prioritize areas most affected by projected flooding, supporting targeted interventions that address both economic and social risks. In doing so, we propose a population-specific approach for incorporating confidence into structured decision making processes. Through a comparative analysis with conventional deterministic approaches and point estimate approaches, including LandScan HD and WorldPop, we evaluate how the incorporation of machine learning and uncertainty influences decision rankings. This research advances population distribution modeling by offering a robust, quantitative approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the underlying data, along with guidance for how users can apply uncertainty in their decision-making.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2016

EVOLUTION OF STELLAR-TO-HALO MASS RATIO AT z = 0–7 IDENTIFIED BY CLUSTERING ANALYSIS WITH THE HUBBLE LEGACY IMAGING AND EARLY SUBARU/HYPER SUPRIME-CAM SURVEY DATA

We present clustering analysis results from 10,381 Lyman break galaxies (LBGs) at z ∼ 4–7, identified in the Hubble legacy deep imaging and new complimentary large-area Subaru/Hyper Suprime-Cam data. We measure the angular correlation functions of these LBGs at z ∼ 4, 5, 6, and 7 and fit these measurements using halo occupation distribution (HOD) models that provide an estimate of halo masses, M{sub h}∼(1−20)×10{sup 11} M{sub ⊙}. Our M{sub h} estimates agree with those obtained by previous clustering studies in a UV-magnitude versus M{sub h} plane and allow us to calculate stellar-to-halo mass ratios (SHMRs) of LBGs. By comparison with the z∼0 SHMR, we identify evolution of the SHMR from z∼0 to z∼4 and from z∼4 to z∼7 at the >98% confidence levels. The SHMR decreases by a factor of ∼2 from z∼0 to 4 and increases by a factor of ∼4 from z∼4 to 7 at the dark matter halo mass of M{sub h}∼10{sup 11} M{sub ⊙}. We compare our SHMRs with results of a hydrodynamic simulation and a semianalytic model and find that these theoretical studies do not predict the SHMR increase from z∼4 to 7. We obtain the baryon conversion efficiency (BCE) of LBGs at z∼4 and find that the BCE increases with increasing dark matter halo mass. Finally, we compare our clustering+HOD estimates with results from abundance matching techniques and conclude that the M{sub h} estimates of the clustering+HOD analyses agree with those of the simple abundance matching within a factor of 3, and that the agreement improves when using more sophisticated abundance matching techniques that include subhalos, incompleteness, and/or evolution in the star formation and stellar mass functions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1990

Runway Exit Designs for Capacity Improvement Demonstrations. Phase 1: Algorithm Development

A description and results are presented of a study to locate and design rapid runway exits under realistic airport conditions. The study developed a PC-based computer simulation-optimization program called REDIM (runway exit design interactive model) to help future airport designers and planners to locate optimal exits under various airport conditions. The model addresses three sets of problems typically arising during runway exit design evaluations. These are the evaluations of existing runway configurations, addition of new rapid runway turnoffs, and the design of new runway facilities. The model is highly interactive and allows a quick estimation of the expected value of runway occupancy time. Aircraft populations and airport environmental conditions are among the multiple inputs to the model to execute a viable runway location and geometric design solution. The results presented suggest that possible reductions on runway occupancy time (ROT) can be achieved with the use of optimally tailored rapid runway designs for a given aircraft population. Reductions of up to 9 to 6 seconds are possible with the implementation of 30 m/sec variable geometry exits.

Trani, A. A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Harvesting the low-hanging fruit of high energy savings -- Virtual Occupancy using Wi-Fi Data

Approximately 20% of primary energy consumed in the U.S. is attributed to HVAC use. Ideally, HVAC operation would be driven by actual building occupancy, but lack of reliable occupancy information often results in the use of conservative static schedules. This disparity is even more pronounced in a college campus, where the function of each space differs by building (classrooms, offices, libraries) and the class schedules change frequently -- every semester, day of week, and hour. While several research papers propose the use of counts of the Wi-Fi connections (e.g., phones, computers) as a proxy for occupancy, few real-world implementations exist. This paper describes the development and deployment of an open-source Wi-Fi-to-Occupancy software library in 65 buildings of a college campus, and the planned integration with the building energy management and control system at the building scale. Over a year of Wi-Fi data was gathered into distinct academic periods, including fall and spring semester, academic breaks, and summer sessions. Patterns such as students moving between classrooms, closing laptops before exams, etc., can be visualized from the data. Approximating occupancy from Wi-Fi data presents challenges which we address in this project -- for example, identifying static devices, or estimating the ratio of devices per person. Utilizing real-time occupancy data to inform optimal HVAC schedules and ventilation rates creates the potential to identify and reduce energy waste. Other potential applications include forecasting occupancy, and using Wi-Fi data to predict peak demands. Finally, the paper discusses how to easily scale these tools to other buildings.

Pritoni, Marco↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Soyuz Landing Reconstructions

Introduction: Recent data show a landing-attributed injury rate among Soyuz crew members to be higher than predicted in original certification analysis. New vehicles being developed for NASA are being certified using analytical tools to quantify injury risk. This assessment will provide data to allow the Agency to evaluate whether these tools are able to capture true injury risk and allow a comparison between Soyuz landings and upcoming vehicles. Methods: A finite element model (FEM) of the Soyuz descent module (DM) and its landing environment were developed to recreate Soyuz landing conditions. Occupant breakout models composed of the Soyuz seat and Sokol helmet were then developed to evaluate occupant response. These models included both anthropomorphic test device (ATD) and human body model (HBM) surrogates in three anthropometric sizes. A generalized distribution analysis of the Soyuz landing environment was performed using landing variable distributions from available literature. Results were used to identify trends in vehicle landing acceleration with landing conditions and to compare landing model injury risk predictions with those estimated in vehicle certification analysis. Next, historic Soyuz landings identified as inducing occupant injury during were reconstructed using the developed landing model and estimated landing conditions. Results and Discussion: This assessment demonstrated the capability of certification metrics, which include a combination of vehicle- and occupant-level injury risk analysis, to identify elevated injury risk landing conditions. However, the developed landing load predictions were limited by available vehicle and landing condition data. Additional data, particularly landing acceleration data specific to historic Soyuz landing conditions, would greatly enhance this assessment’s findings.

Preston Greenhalgh↗
NASA NTRS1992

Occupational safety considerations with hydrazine

Hydrazine is a reducing agent that is most commonly used as a propellant and as an oxygen scavenger in boilers. Hydrazine is extremely irritating and has been demonstrated to produce both acute and chronic toxicity. As a result, the established permissible inhalation exposure limits are very low, and respiration protection is required whenever vapors are present. Liquid hydrazine penetrates the skin and produces a chemical burn; therefore, some protective measures must also be taken to protect the skin from liquid contact. Often, however, a cumbersome, whole-body protective suit is worn to protect against skin contact with vapor as well. To what extent it is actually necessary to protect skin from vapor penetration had not previously been demonstrated. In an attempt to answer this question, we conducted a study with rats to compare the dermal penetration of hydrazine vapor with inhalation. Pharmacokinetic modeling was used to compare body burdens resulting from these different routes of exposure. The analysis concluded that the vapor concentration during a skin-only exposure would have to be at least 200 times higher than that during inhalation to achieve the same body burden. This type of estimation illustrates the use of predictive toxicology in occupational exposures.

Clewell, Harvey J., III↗
DOE OSTI2022

Motion tomography via occupation kernels

The goal of motion tomography is to recover a description of a vector flow field using measurements along the trajectory of a sensing unit. In this paper, we develop a predictor corrector algorithm designed to recover vector flow fields from trajectory data with the use of occupation kernels developed by Rosenfeld et al. [9,10]. Specifically, we use the occupation kernels as an adaptive basis; that is, the trajectories defining our occupation kernels are iteratively updated to improve the estimation in the next stage. Initial estimates are established, then under mild assumptions, such as relatively straight trajectories, convergence is proven using the Contraction Mapping Theorem. We then compare the developed method with the established method by Chang et al. [5] by defining a set of error metrics. Here, we found that for simulated data, where a ground truth is available, our method offers a marked improvement over [5]. For a real-world example, where ground truth is not available, our results are similar results to the established method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Freeway Loop Detector Data Reconciliation Based on Vehicle Conservation

Loop detector is the most common source of traffic flow measurements on freeways. Though being a mature technology, loop detector is prone to miscounts even when it is properly deployed and adjusted. If a loop detectors systematically over- or under-counts, the estimation based on vehicle conservation leads to results that are not physically plausible such as negative density or density higher than the jam-density. Here we propose an optimization-based method in which plausible values of accumulation is guaranteed through explicit constraints. Compared to similar methods, the proposed method distinct in the following: (i) the optimization problem is convex therefore leads to shorter computational time; (ii) occupancy is also taken into account in order to estimate upper and lower bounds in the accumulation between stations; (iii) no modifications are required when data from one or multiple lanes are missing. The method is first validated using micro-simulation by disturbing the loop-detector from micro-simulation, applying the method and then comparing the results with the ground truth data. The results show the method is able to capture the average counts almost exactly while providing estimate of density with satisfactory accuracy. The method is also successfully applied in a scenario in which field-data is available.

data reconciliation↗
DOE OSTI2022

Home energy management under realistic and uncertain conditions: A comparison of heuristic, deterministic, and stochastic control methods

We report home energy management systems (HEMS) have been shown to reduce energy bills and to provide grid services including peak demand reduction and demand flexibility. However, uncertainty in residential energy systems is a significant issue and can reduce the benefits of a HEMS to the homeowner or grid operator. Sources of uncertainty include weather forecasts, predictions of energy-related occupant activities (e.g., hot water draws), and parameter estimation for the building envelope and energy-consuming equipment. This paper tackles the problem of uncertainty by developing a framework that simulates HEMS in uncertain conditions and evaluates the performance of multiple control strategies. A linear, reduced-order residential building model for model predictive control applications is derived and compared to a full-order model. Stochastic model predictive control is shown to perform better than deterministic and heuristic methods when considering realistic forecasts with uncertainty. The framework can evaluate the performance of HEMS in real-world applications, which can help de-risk HEMS deployment.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

DC Arc Incident Energy in Photovoltaic Systems: Methods for Evaluation

Renewable energy systems continue to be one of the fastest growing segments of the energy industry. This article focuses on the understanding of how photovoltaic (PV) technology behaves under dc arc conditions. Emphasis is placed on the electrical safety aspect of dc arc-flash incident energy (IE) evaluation. Because of the fast proliferation of PV systems and lack of formal equivalent calculation guidelines, such as IEEE 1584 for ac systems, it has been necessary to rely on different equations and models presented by various researchers over the last few years. This article discusses the behavior of PV systems under arc conditions and presents the results of the available methods to estimate the dc arc-flash IE. It provides a comparative analysis of a proposed arc-flash IE calculation method against different laboratory tests, including those performed for this article at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Detailed explanations are provided regarding the effect of the PV module current-voltage (I-V) and power-voltage (P-V) curves under arcing conditions. Examples of the application of the proposed calculation method to the test measurements are included.

arc discharges↗
NASA NTRS2007

Space Radiation Cancer Risks

Space radiation presents major challenges to astronauts on the International Space Station and for future missions to the Earth s moon or Mars. Methods used to project risks on Earth need to be modified because of the large uncertainties in projecting cancer risks from space radiation, and thus impact safety factors. We describe NASA s unique approach to radiation safety that applies uncertainty based criteria within the occupational health program for astronauts: The two terrestrial criteria of a point estimate of maximum acceptable level of risk and application of the principle of As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) are supplemented by a third requirement that protects against risk projection uncertainties using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) in the radiation cancer projection model. NASA s acceptable level of risk for ISS and their new lunar program have been set at the point-estimate of a 3-percent risk of exposure induced death (REID). Tissue-averaged organ dose-equivalents are combined with age at exposure and gender-dependent risk coefficients to project the cumulative occupational radiation risks incurred by astronauts. The 95% CL criteria in practice is a stronger criterion than ALARA, but not an absolute cut-off as is applied to a point projection of a 3% REID. We describe the most recent astronaut dose limits, and present a historical review of astronaut organ doses estimates from the Mercury through the current ISS program, and future projections for lunar and Mars missions. NASA s 95% CL criteria is linked to a vibrant ground based radiobiology program investigating the radiobiology of high-energy protons and heavy ions. The near-term goal of research is new knowledge leading to the reduction of uncertainties in projection models. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. The current model for projecting space radiation cancer risk relies on the three assumptions of linearity, additivity, and scaling along with the use of population averages. We describe uncertainty estimates for this model, and new experimental data that sheds light on the accuracy of the underlying assumptions. These methods make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including lunar station, deep space outpost, and a Mars mission. Factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties and application of this approach to assess candidate mitigation approaches are described.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Visual SLAM Using Variance Grid Maps

An algorithm denoted Gamma-SLAM performs further processing, in real time, of preprocessed digitized images acquired by a stereoscopic pair of electronic cameras aboard an off-road robotic ground vehicle to build accurate maps of the terrain and determine the location of the vehicle with respect to the maps. Part of the name of the algorithm reflects the fact that the process of building the maps and determining the location with respect to them is denoted simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM). Most prior real-time SLAM algorithms have been limited in applicability to (1) systems equipped with scanning laser range finders as the primary sensors in (2) indoor environments (or relatively simply structured outdoor environments). The few prior vision-based SLAM algorithms have been feature-based and not suitable for real-time applications and, hence, not suitable for autonomous navigation on irregularly structured terrain. The Gamma-SLAM algorithm incorporates two key innovations: Visual odometry (in contradistinction to wheel odometry) is used to estimate the motion of the vehicle. An elevation variance map (in contradistinction to an occupancy or an elevation map) is used to represent the terrain. The Gamma-SLAM algorithm makes use of a Rao-Blackwellized particle filter (RBPF) from Bayesian estimation theory for maintaining a distribution over poses and maps. The core idea of the RBPF approach is that the SLAM problem can be factored into two parts: (1) finding the distribution over robot trajectories, and (2) finding the map conditioned on any given trajectory. The factorization involves the use of a particle filter in which each particle encodes both a possible trajectory and a map conditioned on that trajectory. The base estimate of the trajectory is derived from visual odometry, and the map conditioned on that trajectory is a Cartesian grid of elevation variances. In comparison with traditional occupancy or elevation grid maps, the grid elevation variance maps are much better for representing the structure of vegetated or rocky terrain.

Howard, Andrew B.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Lighting application efficacy: A framework for holistically measuring lighting use in buildings

Lighting consumes significant energy in buildings, but current measurements of lighting efficiency are inadequate in capturing the spatial and temporal effectiveness of light. The most widely used lighting energy efficiency measure, luminous efficacy, quantifies the amount of light generated by individual light sources. While luminous efficacy provides manufacturers and designers with a useful metric for quantifying the energy efficiency of individual lighting devices, it does not fully address the use of lighting in architectural spaces. Instead, application efficacy, the relationship between the electrical power consumed by lighting hardware and the amount of light that contributes to the visual perception of building occupants, must be measured. Here, we propose a framework for calculating lighting application efficacy (LAE) based on the primary pathway of light in architectural settings: the generation and emission of light from a luminaire, the travel of the light throughout the space and into occupants’ eyes, and the process of visual perception. The LAE framework will include the development of computational methods for estimating the proportion of emitted light that is directed to task areas and areas corresponding to occupants’ visual fields using ray-tracing lighting design software. Future modeling and validation work will quantify energy efficiency of buildings.

Durmus, Dorukalp↗