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WHOLESCALE - Water & Hole Observations Leverage Effective Stress Calculations And Lessen Expenses (Final Technical Report 2020 - 2024)

The WHOLESCALE acronym stands for Water & Hole Observations Leverage Effective Stress Calculations and Lessen Expenses. The goal of the WHOLESCALE project is to simulate the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of stress in the geothermal system at San Emidio in Nevada, United States. To reach this goal, the WHOLESCALE team has developed a methodology to incorporate and interpret data from four methods of measurement into a multi-physics model that couples thermal, hydrological, and mechanical (T H-M) processes. The WHOLESCALE team has applied this methodology at the San Emidio geothermal field, located ~100 km north of Reno, Nevada in the northwestern Basin and Range province. The WHOLESCALE team includes 30 individuals working at two universities, two national laboratories, and one industry partner. Two master-degree students and five post-doctoral researchers have gained professional experience and earned partial financial support via the WHOLESCALE project. The WHOLESCALE team has taken advantage of the perturbations created by changes in pumping operations during planned shutdowns in 2016, 2021, and 2022 to infer temporal changes in the state of stress in the geothermal system at San Emidio, Nevada, U.S. The WHOLESCALE results support the working hypothesis that increasing pore-fluid pressure reduces the effective normal stress acting across fault zones. During normal operations, pumping in deep production wells decreases fluid pressures and thus increases the effective normal stresses on faults, reducing microseismicity. During planned shutdowns, the cessation of production increases pore-fluid pressure and reduces effective normal stress. The WHOLESCALE products generated during the 4-year period between 2020 and 2024 include: three articles published in the open-access, peer-reviewed scientific literature, two master’s theses, 20 presentations or papers at scientific conferences, and 17 data sets available on public repositories. The WHOLESCALE project has been completed in two phases that included three performance periods separated by two Go/No-go Stage Gate Reviews. Tasks were classified by data type (i.e., Geologic Structure, Borehole, Geodesy, Hydrology, Seismology, and Modeling). The first phase of the project started July 31, 2020 and included ongoing project coordination (Task 1), a project kickoff (Task 2), analysis of existing data (Task 3), development of the initial stress model & deployment design (Task 4), and Go/No-go Decision Point #1 (Task 5). Phase II began with implementing the 2022 deployment (Task 6), followed by Go/No-go Decision Point #2 (Task 7) The remainder of Phase II consisted of analyzing data collected during deployment (Task 8), calibration of the stress model on all observations (Task 9), and the Final Review (August 23, 2024) & Reporting (Task 10).

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY

Distribution of Mount St. Helens dust inferred from satellites and meteorological data

Visible and infrared pictures from two Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Systems satellites, in circular orbits at about 19,000 nautical miles, are available continuously at approximately 30 minute intervals. Still pictures and film loops from this system vividly depict the events associated with the May 18, 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens. The initial explosion, shock wave, and visible horizontal dust distribution during the following week are readily apparent. Meteorological wind and height fields permit the inference of the vertical distribution of volcanic dust as well as explain the atmospheric behavior which caused the visible and nonvisible dust distribution.

Laver, J. D.

The internet worm

In November 1988 a worm program invaded several thousand UNIX-operated Sun workstations and VAX computers attached to the Research Internet, seriously disrupting service for several days but damaging no files. An analysis of the work's decompiled code revealed a battery of attacks by a knowledgeable insider, and demonstrated a number of security weaknesses. The attack occurred in an open network, and little can be inferred about the vulnerabilities of closed networks used for critical operations. The attack showed that passwork protection procedures need review and strengthening. It showed that sets of mutually trusting computers need to be carefully controlled. Sharp public reaction crystalized into a demand for user awareness and accountability in a networked world.

Denning, Peter J.

An expert system shell for inferring vegetation characteristics: The learning system (tasks C and D)

This report describes the implementation of a learning system that uses a data base of historical cover type reflectance data taken at different solar zenith angles and wavelengths to learn class descriptions of classes of cover types. It has been integrated with the VEG system and requires that the VEG system be loaded to operate. VEG is the NASA VEGetation workbench - an expert system for inferring vegetation characteristics from reflectance data. The learning system provides three basic options. Using option one, the system learns class descriptions of one or more classes. Using option two, the system learns class descriptions of one or more classes and then uses the learned classes to classify an unknown sample. Using option three, the user can test the system's classification performance. The learning system can also be run in an automatic mode. In this mode, options two and three are executed on each sample from an input file. The system was developed using KEE. It is menu driven and contains a sophisticated window and mouse driven interface which guides the user through various computations. Input and output file management and data formatting facilities are also provided.

Harrison, P. Ann

Inverse solution of the pseudoscalar transfer equation through nonlinear matrix inversion

Nonlinear matrix inversion operators have been developed which, applied to observed radiances, infer maximal information regarding atmospheric scattering parameters and vertical distribution of radiant sources and sinks. The algorithm has the attractive feature of noise discrimination, attributing instrumental errors to extra-atmospheric sources.

King, J. I. F.

Correlation of combustor acoustic power levels inferred from internal fluctuating pressure measurements

Combustion chamber acoustic power levels inferred from internal fluctuating pressure measurements are correlated with operating conditions and chamber geometries over a wide range. The variables include considerations of chamber design (can, annular, and reverse-flow annular) and size, number of fuel nozzles, burner staging and fuel split, airflow and heat release rates, and chamber inlet pressure and temperature levels. The correlated data include those obtained with combustion component development rigs as well as engines.

Vonglahn, U. H.

Correlation of combustor acoustic power levels inferred from internal fluctuating pressure measurements

Combustion chamber acoustic power levels inferred from internal fluctuating pressure measurements are correlated with operating conditions and chamber geometries over a wide range. The variables include considerations of chamber design (can, annular, and reverse-flow annular) and size, number of fuel nozzles, burner staging and fuel split, airflow and heat release rates, and chamber inlet pressure and temperature levels. The correlated data include those obtained with combustion component development rigs as well as engines.

Von Glahn, U. H.

Multi-system report integration using blackboards

Blackboards are an Al problem solving methodology. A blackboard system consists of a structured data base (the blackboard) holding input and derived inferences and a collection of procedures for deriving inferences (knowledge sources). Each knowledge source is specialized to operate on some portion of the blackboard. The knowledge sources are invoked opportunistically as the information on the blackboard increases. The methodology is well suited to integrating multiple streams of fully reduced and qualitatively different data such as active radar track reports, passive electronic intelligence reports, and human intelligence reports about enemy intentions. This paper sketches the nature of the blackboard problem solving methodology with an emphasis on those features suiting it to such applications. The sketch is illustrated with examples from a relatively simple multi-system report integration problem. Relevant applications currently under development at Stanford's Knowledge Systems Laboratory are also described.

Delaney, J. R.

Qualifying the Sunpower M87N Cryocooler for Operation in the AMS-02 Magnetic Field

The Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer-02 (AMs-02) experiment uses a superfluid helium dewar to cool a large superconducting magnet. The outer vapor-cooled shields of the dewar are to be held at 80 K by four Sunpower M87N cryocoolers. These cryocoolers have magnetic components that might interact with the external applied field generated by the superconducting magnet, thereby degrading the cryocoolers' performance. Engineering models of the Sunpower M87 have been qualified for operation in a magnetic environment similar to the AMs-02 magnetic environment. Although there was no noticeable performance degradation at field levels that were comparable to AMs-02 field levels, there appears to be a small performance degradation at higher field levels. It was theorized that there were three possible issues related to these performance losses at high magnetic fields: i) induced piston rubbing on the cylinder wall due to forces and torques on the linear motor due to the applied magnetic fields; ii) Magnetic hysteretic and/or eddy current damping of the balancer due to its motion in the applied magnetic fields; iii) Inductance losses in motor due to the applied magnetic field. The experiments conducted at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) cyclotron facility in June 2002 were designed to test these. Tests were performed over a range of field levels that were lower, comparable, and higher than the field levels that the cryocoolers will experience in the AMs-02 operating environment. This paper describes the experiments and the inferences derived from them.

Mustafi, Shuvo

Natural Language Understanding and Extraction of Flight Constraints Recorded in Letters of Agreement

This paper presents an automated information extraction and inference technique using natural language processing for extracting flight operational procedures and constraints embedded in heritage air traffic management documents. The extracted flight constraints can be digitized and fit into existing airspace information exchange models such as the Aeronautical Information Exchange Model (AIXM). This approach offers a digitized solution to disseminate airspace operating conditions to diverse air users and stakeholders in the National Airspace System (NAS). Furthermore, the digitized flight procedures can provide operational flexibility for emerging advanced air mobility providers and reduce traffic controller workload while maintaining current safety standards. To demonstrate this process, 1,972 Letters of Agreement (LOAs) have been selected for processing, named entity extraction, constraint identification and extraction. This dataset is derived from a subset of documents related to Air Route Traffic Control Centers (ARTCC) operations. We experimented with various traditional information extraction techniques, state-of-the-art machine learning and deep learning models to perform named entity recognition and pattern recognition on our dataset. We present the results from our experiments and demonstrate 99.0% F-1 score for named entity recognition, and a 96.6% accuracy for our entire workflow up to named entity recognition. We also discuss constraint definitions using generic patterned templates and extensions to this work in applying entity linking to digitally extracting relevant constraints.

Natural Language Processing

Natural Language Understanding and Extraction of Flight Constraints Recorded in Letters of Agreement

This paper presents an automated information extraction and inference technique using natural language processing for extracting flight operational procedures and constraints embedded in heritage air traffic management documents. The extracted flight constraints can be digitized and fit into existing airspace information exchange models such as the Aeronautical Information Exchange Model (AIXM). This approach offers a digitized solution to disseminate airspace operating conditions to diverse air users and stakeholders in the National Airspace System (NAS). Furthermore, the digitized flight procedures can provide operational flexibility for emerging advanced air mobility providers and reduce traffic controller workload while maintaining current safety standards. To demonstrate this process, 1,972 Letters of Agreement (LOAs) have been selected for processing, named entity extraction, constraint identification and extraction. This dataset is derived from a subset of documents related to Air Route Traffic Control Centers (ARTCC) operations. We experimented with various traditional information extraction techniques, state-of-the-art machine learning and deep learning models to perform named entity recognition and pattern recognition on our dataset. We present the results from our experiments and demonstrate 99.0% F-1 score for named entity recognition, and a 96.6% accuracy for our entire workflow up to named entity recognition. We also discuss constraint definitions using generic patterned templates and extensions to this work in applying entity linking to digitally extracting relevant constraints.

Natural Language Processing

Constraints on Martian Soil Composition as Inferred from Viking XRFS and Pathfinder APXS and IMP Data

With the successful operation of the Alpha Proton X-Ray Spectrometer (APXS) during 1997's Mars Pathfinder (MPF) mission, geochemistry data are now available from three sites on Mars. APXS raw spectra for six soils and five rocks have been converted to compositional abundances. The Viking Lander X-Ray Fluorescence Spectrometer (XRFS) successfully measured elemental abundances of nine soils at Viking 1 and eight soils at Viking 2. Although the three landing sites are located in different parts of Mars, the soils exhibit broad similarities, with an iron-rich chemistry similar to that of palagonite. However, the Pathfinder sods show some significant differences from Viking soils, notably an enrichment in silica and depletion in sulfur. The XRFS samples consisted of near-surface and deep (up to 22 cm) soils acquired by a collector head at the cod of a retractable boom. It was possible to collect and analyze pebbles as large a 2 cm, but only sod, some in the form of consolidated clods, was sampled. In contrast, the APXS measured materials in situ. This resulted in MPF "rock" analyses that probably had a significant dust component and, as explored here, "soil" analyses that may have contained a rocky component We examine several possibilities to explain these differences and other attributes of the APXS and XRFS data sets: 1) The APXS soil measurements actually sampled a mixture of Viking-like soil and small bits of high-silica, low-sulfur rock, 2) The soils were derived from high-silica rocks mixed with a minor component of globally-homogenized dust; these soils are chemically distinct and have a separate geologic history from the Viking soils. 3) The weathering environment was different at the Pathfinder landing site compared to the Viking sites, and 4) Uncertainties in the XRFS and APXS measurements result in reported elemental abundances different than those that are actually present We show that none of the possibilities can be discounted, but that an MPF soil distinct in composition from Viking sods is best supported by the available data.

Bridges, N. T.

An expert system shell for inferring vegetation characteristics: Implementation of additional techniques (task E)

The NASA VEGetation Workbench (VEG) is a knowledge based system that infers vegetation characteristics from reflectance data. The VEG subgoal PROPORTION.GROUND.COVER has been completed and a number of additional techniques that infer the proportion ground cover of a sample have been implemented. Some techniques operate on sample data at a single wavelength. The techniques previously incorporated in VEG for other subgoals operated on data at a single wavelength so implementing the additional single wavelength techniques required no changes to the structure of VEG. Two techniques which use data at multiple wavelengths to infer proportion ground cover were also implemented. This work involved modifying the structure of VEG so that multiple wavelength techniques could be incorporated. All the new techniques were tested using both the VEG 'Research Mode' and the 'Automatic Mode.'

Harrison, P. Ann

Peak Pc Prediction in Conjunction Analysis: Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

Satellite conjunction risk typically evaluated through the probability of collision (Pc). Considers both conjunction geometry and uncertainties in both state estimates. Conjunction events initially discovered through Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) screenings, usually seven days before Time of Closest Approach (TCA). However, JSpOC continues to track objects and issue conjunction updates. Changes in state estimate and reduced propagation time cause Pc to change as event develops. These changes a combination of potentially predictable development and unpredictable changes in state estimate covariance. Operationally useful datum: the peak Pc. If it can reasonably be inferred that the peak Pc value has passed, then risk assessment can be conducted against this peak value. If this value is below remediation level, then event intensity can be relaxed. Can the peak Pc location be reasonably predicted?

Operations

Informing New Concepts for UAS and Autonomous System Safety Management using Disaster Management and First Responder Scenarios

As emerging flight operations become more prevalent and increasingly automated and distributed, the capabilities for managing safety of vehicles and operations will also need to evolve. To address this challenge, the National Academies has envisioned an In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) capability for a wide range of aviation operations including current commercial operations as well as new entrants envisioned with advanced air mobility (AAM). The suite of IASMS services, functions, and capabilities (SFCs) would be implemented in a federated approach and would address trends as well as individual operations. Through predictive modeling and data analysis, IASMS is envisioned to identify arising risks so that they can be mitigated, in-time, before a safety incident occurs. IASMS and its requisite set of SFCs must leverage a wide range of information to perform. To better understand these new needs, FSF worked with the aviation and humanitarian communities to develop and validate scenarios that include traditional aviation operations and UAS operations intermingled as they are deployed for disaster management and first responder (DMFR) situations. The three scenarios developed include: • Post Natural disaster response, such as a hurricane, involving multiple parties utilizing traditional aviation and UAS to support rescue operations, surveil damage, and locate survivors needing assistance. • Wildfire fighting in remote locations with traditional aircraft for transport and fire-retardant delivery combined with UAS for surveillance of fire locations as well as to track individual firefighter locations. • Medical Operations and AAM in Urban Environments including passenger-carrying helicopters and AAM vehicles, medical missions (such as transport of radio-pharmaceuticals), and other UAS delivery operations (such as the delivery of defibrillators). Each scenario was developed and validated by representatives with expertise in humanitarian operations, urban and rural emergency response, air traffic management, UAS operations, and traditional flight operations. The scenario definitions address roles and responsibilities of individual actors, the appropriate utilization of UAS, and the actions taken by those actors to appropriately manage risks associated with the mission and environment. The risks to aviation traffic and to people on the ground explored included potential risks arising from incompatibilities in calculating reference altitudes (eg, differing uses of AGL, MSL, barometric, or GPS-derived values), loss of command and control (C2) communications, rapid changes in weather and winds, and physical interference. For each risk, IASMS SFCs were postulated in the context of monitoring services, risk assessment capabilities, and identifying appropriate mitigation strategies. The identified SFC capabilities were envisioned from known services postulated for IASMS and for UTM. For these unique environments, IASMS SFCs are needed to address conditions such as hazardous payloads, micro-climates and urban canyons, and the need to keep uninvolved air traffic out of the area where DMFR operations are being conducted. The second phase of analysis focused on inferring the specific information needs and the SFCs for IASMS, utilizing a structure of 16 information classes to organize requirements. For each of the risks identified in the workshops, it was postulated what data sources would be necessary to monitor critical aspects of the risk (eg, surrounding air traffic, ground population, terrain, etc). to be directly measured as well as data that would be derived, which implies additional SFCs for different actors to understand what information would likely be exchanged between parties. For an IASMS to be effective, additional research is needed to develop the advanced algorithms that can address the increasingly autonomous and complex operations in differing environments and to develop means of identifying unknown risks. Looking at these scenarios highlighted a number of research issues. These include the ability to quickly "cordon off" airspace thru temporary flight restrictions (TFRs) or other means, developing clear definitions to enable automation-based algorithms for prioritizing operations, defining airspace density metrics, standardization of altitude reporting, and establishing a basis for safety data metrics definition and collection. This paper seeks to outline the development of an IASMS in the context of the DMFR scenarios and resulting demonstrations. Utilizing this contextual approach, NASA will generate recommendations for an assured safety framework for AAM operations that enables AAM operations to safely access the NAS.

In Time Aviation Safety Management System

Conin

SAND2025-07645O Conin is a Python library that supports constrained analysis of probabilistic graphical models (PGMs). It enables constrained inference and learning for hidden Markov models, Bayesian networks, dynamic Bayesian networks, and Markov networks. Conin interfaces with the pgmpy library to specify general probabilistic graphical models with a variety of optimization solvers to support learning and inference. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Hart, William [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Live

Prime VI

SAND2025-03757O Prime VI is a distribution-of-disease outbreak model calibration code based on variational inference. It accompanies a publication for submission to Statistics in Medicine journal, and the code will be maintained for open-source use on Sandia's GitLab. The software provides methods for calibrating an epidemiological model to measured case-count data for a multitude of correlated spatial regions. The code solves a Bayesian inverse problem for model calibration where the posterior over-model parameters are approximated through a custom implementation of variational inference. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Safta, Cosmin

Evaluation of Satellite-Based Upper Troposphere Cloud Top Height Retrievals in Multilayer Cloud Conditions During TC4

Upper troposphere cloud top heights (CTHs), restricted to cloud top pressures (CTPs) less than 500 hPa, inferred using four satellite retrieval methods applied to Twelfth Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-12) data are evaluated using measurements during the July August 2007 Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling Experiment (TC4). The four methods are the single-layer CO2-absorption technique (SCO2AT), a modified CO2-absorption technique (MCO2AT) developed for improving both single-layered and multilayered cloud retrievals, a standard version of the Visible Infrared Solar-infrared Split-window Technique (old VISST), and a new version of VISST (new VISST) recently developed to improve cloud property retrievals. They are evaluated by comparing with ER-2 aircraft-based Cloud Physics Lidar (CPL) data taken during 9 days having extensive upper troposphere cirrus, anvil, and convective clouds. Compared to the 89% coverage by upper tropospheric clouds detected by the CPL, the SCO2AT, MCO2AT, old VISST, and new VISST retrieved CTPs less than 500 hPa in 76, 76, 69, and 74% of the matched pixels, respectively. Most of the differences are due to subvisible and optically thin cirrus clouds occurring near the tropopause that were detected only by the CPL. The mean upper tropospheric CTHs for the 9 days are 14.2 (+/- 2.1) km from the CPL and 10.7 (+/- 2.1), 12.1 (+/- 1.6), 9.7 (+/- 2.9), and 11.4 (+/- 2.8) km from the SCO2AT, MCO2AT, old VISST, and new VISST, respectively. Compared to the CPL, the MCO2AT CTHs had the smallest mean biases for semitransparent high clouds in both single-layered and multilayered situations whereas the new VISST CTHs had the smallest mean biases when upper clouds were opaque and optically thick. The biases for all techniques increased with increasing numbers of cloud layers. The transparency of the upper layer clouds tends to increase with the numbers of cloud layers.

Chang, Fu-Lung